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Figured I'd start this up again to discuss any of the appearance Neil makes in the media.

Right now, he's doing a Q&A here:

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/51101-l...or-head-ne
(05-20-2016, 11:36 AM)Bronco80 Wrote: [ -> ]Figured I'd start this up again to discuss any of the appearance Neil makes in the media.

Right now, he's doing a Q&A here:

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/51101-l...or-head-ne

Thanks . Good update on Millennials
(05-20-2016, 11:36 AM)Bronco80 Wrote: [ -> ]Figured I'd start this up again to discuss any of the appearance Neil makes in the media.

Right now, he's doing a Q&A here:

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/51101-l...or-head-ne

The very group Mr. Howe discusses here has also been characterized as Generation Limbo. Lower Income Mostly Beyond Overhaul. (my acronym)
Neil is presenting at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference this week the event has a live blog that talks about what he said:

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/sic-2016
McAlvany Weekly Commentary conducted a podcast interview of Neil Howe on July 4th: “We Are 8 Years Into the Fourth Turning”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FohiCeA2paM

Of particular interest to me was the question put to Howe about 32 and 1/2 minutes into the interview, when he was asked if this fourth turning might culminate in a "devolution" of the social order in America, rather than the "evolution" of civic values that we have come to expect in the wake of previous crises.  Though S&H theory understandably strikes many readers as "apocalyptic" at first glance, I have always considered Neil Howe an "optimistic fatalist" rather than a "doom and gloomer."  In answering this particular question, Howe referred to a recently published book by Tyler Cowen that I intend to read: The complacent class : the self-defeating quest for the American dream.

The podcast is a little over an hour in length.
FWIW, an unfavorable critique of 4TF theory, tied in to an attack on the Trump administration:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/...ory-215053
(06-22-2018, 03:13 PM)JDG 66 Wrote: [ -> ]FWIW, an unfavorable critique of 4TF theory, tied in to an attack on the Trump administration:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/...ory-215053


It's more critical of Steve Bannon and his interpretation of history through the Howe-and-Strauss lens than of the theory itself. The theory can be interpreted many different ways, often reflecting the biases of the 'user'. I read into it what I want to, of course -- and I know that.

History may be largely linear, especially with technological progress. Because my attempt to understand history requires a Hegelian dialectic to make sense (lest history be nothing more than a memorization of disconnected names, dates, and places), I force the Hegelian dialectic upon Howe and Strauss in my understanding. Yes, I recognize the faults of Toynbee, especially in his dismissal of all contributions of people of sub-Saharan African origin to cultural and political life -- only to ignore that black Ethiopia had an impressive civilization and that at his time, Americans of African origin were creating some remarkable culture in the Harlem Renaissance. But the Civilization as a unit of humanity makes some sense, and he saw patterns of birth, growth, high achievement, complacency, decadence, ruin, and death in them all. Western Christian Civilization, which encompasses the world from Finnmark to Tierra del Fuego and from  about Sandomierz to San Francisco would have been in deep trouble (and decadence) had Inquisition-era Spain, Napoleonic France, Wilhelmine or Nazi Germany, or the Soviet Union come to dominate things as the Universal State enforces rigid conformity and obedience and crushes creativity. Imagine America with Trump-like Presidents serving rapacious rentiers in America and dictating how people will be rewarded and starved based upon obedience or disobedience to the crony capitalists, and you will recognize that the Roman Empire was a rotten order from its inception.

Most of us want to make sense of history without having to remember the succession of British or Spanish monarchs. Howe and Strauss see mass culture perhaps not so much as causes as consequences of history, and because they offer their books to mass audiences, John Phillip Sousa matters more than does Clausewitz.  But this said, the biological reality of few people being able to contribute much to society after about 80 also shapes history.
New Business Insider article credits Strauss and Howe for predicting the current crisis

https://www.businessinsider.com/protests...ers-2020-6

[Image: 5a381f64ec1ade358d6f0a03?width=600&forma...&auto=webp]
America plays out a version of the generational battle between Luke Skywalker and Darth Vader every 80 years or so, according to the Fourth Turning theory.
(06-04-2020, 11:15 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]New Business Insider article credits Strauss and Howe for predicting the current crisis

https://www.businessinsider.com/protests...ers-2020-6

[Image: 5a381f64ec1ade358d6f0a03?width=600&forma...&auto=webp]
America plays out a version of the generational battle between Luke Skywalker and Darth Vader every 80 years or so, according to the Fourth Turning theory.

In the 1991 book, they predicted agreement between Prophets and Civics during the 4T. A battle is supposed to happen during the 2T.
(06-08-2020, 03:33 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: [ -> ]In the 1991 book, they predicted agreement between Prophets and Civics during the 4T. A battle is supposed to happen during the 2T.

This applies to the old Prophets and the Civics they raised. The new Prophets will rebel, as Prophets always do.
(06-08-2020, 09:21 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-08-2020, 03:33 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: [ -> ]In the 1991 book, they predicted agreement between Prophets and Civics during the 4T. A battle is supposed to happen during the 2T.

This applies to the old Prophets and the Civics they raised.  The new Prophets will rebel, as Prophets always do.

Isn't that what we are for? Wink
(06-08-2020, 09:21 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-08-2020, 03:33 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: [ -> ]In the 1991 book, they predicted agreement between Prophets and Civics during the 4T. A battle is supposed to happen during the 2T.

This applies to the old Prophets and the Civics they raised. 

Millennials are loyal to the Prophets that raised them, I mean the liberal boomer establishment. They diss the "other" boomers like neocons and market fundies.

Any news on the 1T book?
(06-09-2020, 04:05 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-08-2020, 09:21 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-08-2020, 03:33 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: [ -> ]In the 1991 book, they predicted agreement between Prophets and Civics during the 4T. A battle is supposed to happen during the 2T.

This applies to the old Prophets and the Civics they raised. 

Millennials are loyal to the Prophets that raised them, I mean the liberal boomer establishment. They diss the "other" boomers like neocons and market fundies.

Any news on the 1T book?

For a Prophet to fit the archetype, (s)he must be forward looking.  Not everyone born in the Boom years fits. In fact, the ones who excelled in the 3T tend to be more like their Silent predecessors -- the Clintons and the Bush Brothers being prime examples.
Neil Howe just made an announcement on his Twitter account yesterday:

https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration/status/1289248855913926656?s=20
(06-09-2020, 02:53 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-09-2020, 04:05 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-08-2020, 09:21 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-08-2020, 03:33 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: [ -> ]In the 1991 book, they predicted agreement between Prophets and Civics during the 4T. A battle is supposed to happen during the 2T.

This applies to the old Prophets and the Civics they raised. 

Millennials are loyal to the Prophets that raised them, I mean the liberal boomer establishment. They diss the "other" boomers like neocons and market fundies.

Any news on the 1T book?

For a Prophet to fit the archetype, (s)he must be forward looking.  Not everyone born in the Boom years fits. In fact, the ones who excelled in the 3T tend to be more like their Silent predecessors -- the Clintons and the Bush Brothers being prime examples.

Most likely a small number of Boomers will be accepted as the ones to follow because they will be compatible with Millennial virtues.
(08-01-2020, 06:40 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: [ -> ]Neil Howe just made an announcement on his Twitter account yesterday:

https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration/status/1289248855913926656?s=20

It *kind* of sounds like what I'd love to do, but maybe not since I'm sure it would mean a pay cut for me and I doubt I'm qualified anyway  even though I've been blogging about his theory since the early 2000s. I don't think I have the right resume. 

However, I do think it would be something if all his fans sent him applications.  Angel
(08-02-2020, 04:53 PM)sbarrera Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-01-2020, 06:40 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: [ -> ]Neil Howe just made an announcement on his Twitter account yesterday:

https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration/status/1289248855913926656?s=20

It *kind* of sounds like what I'd love to do, but maybe not since I'm sure it would mean a pay cut for me and I doubt I'm qualified anyway  even though I've been blogging about his theory since the early 2000s. I don't think I have the right resume. 

However, I do think it would be something if all his fans sent him applications.  Angel
Does anyone want to speculate what his next book will be about? An updated “prophecy” about how the Fourth Turning crisis era may play out? Given how fast events seem to be unfolding now, by the time his next book comes to print, Howe may be a “a day late and a dollar short.’’ Or, his timing could prove to be a master stroke.
(08-02-2020, 06:01 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-02-2020, 04:53 PM)sbarrera Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-01-2020, 06:40 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: [ -> ]Neil Howe just made an announcement on his Twitter account yesterday:

https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration/status/1289248855913926656?s=20

It *kind* of sounds like what I'd love to do, but maybe not since I'm sure it would mean a pay cut for me and I doubt I'm qualified anyway  even though I've been blogging about his theory since the early 2000s. I don't think I have the right resume. 

However, I do think it would be something if all his fans sent him applications.  Angel
Does anyone want to speculate what his next book will be about? An updated “prophecy” about how the Fourth Turning crisis era may play out? Given how fast events seem to be unfolding now, by the time his next book comes to print, Howe may be a “a day late and a dollar short.’’ Or, his timing could prove to be a master stroke.


Or, how the first turning will turn out. We’ll see.
I wish I could participate.
(08-02-2020, 07:58 PM)RadianMay Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-02-2020, 06:01 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: [ -> ]Does anyone want to speculate what his next book will be about? An updated “prophecy” about how the Fourth Turning crisis era may play out? Given how fast events seem to be unfolding now, by the time his next book comes to print, Howe may be a “a day late and a dollar short.’’ Or, his timing could prove to be a master stroke.

Or, how the first turning will turn out. We’ll see.

Of the two options, my money is on the First Turning story.
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