10-21-2016, 06:25 PM
(10-21-2016, 04:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Donald Trump is down to a less-than-4% chance of winning the election.
Much much higher chance of whining.
Which source is giving 4%? 538 is still around 13%.
(10-21-2016, 04:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Donald Trump is down to a less-than-4% chance of winning the election.
(10-21-2016, 04:48 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]Straight Outta Lynwood .... "Bad Hombres, Nasty Women" (Ft. Weird Al). Enjoy!
(10-19-2016, 07:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Another angle -- probability of winning (before Debate #3)
Chance of winning (saturation)
pct sat
99%+ 9
95-98.9 7
90-95 5
75-90 4
65-75 3
50-65 2
Utah (my guess) 55% McMullen
blue -- Trump,
red -- Clinton
green -- independent
(10-21-2016, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ](10-21-2016, 04:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Donald Trump is down to a less-than-4% chance of winning the election.
Much much higher chance of whining.
Which source is giving 4%? 538 is still around 13%.
(10-22-2016, 01:40 PM)Anthony 58 Wrote: [ -> ]But is everyone missing something here; namely, the Bradley Effect - in this case, respondents lying to pollsters because they don't want to be seen as one of those redneck, racist "deplorables" who are backing Donald Trump? Plus Hillary is a woman, which means some voters could be hiding their Mad Men misogyny by telling pollsters they're for her when they're not.
Quote:Which source is giving 4%? 538 is still around 13%.
(10-22-2016, 01:40 PM)Anthony Wrote: [ -> ]The bottom line is this: If Hillary wins all the states that Kerry won in 2004, plus Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado - and she has a seemingly insurmountable lead in all three - she wins. She wouldn't even need to win in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, or Nevada.
But is everyone missing something here; namely, the Bradley Effect - in this case, respondents lying to pollsters because they don't want to be seen as one of those redneck, racist "deplorables" who are backing Donald Trump? Plus Hillary is a woman, which means some voters could be hiding their Mad Men misogyny by telling pollsters they're for her when they're not.
(10-22-2016, 05:09 PM)Bronsin Wrote: [ -> ]Trump will lose this election for a couple of reasons.You got that much right.
First, he never got out of the mud-slinging phase. At some point you have to focus on what you are going to do for the voters to make their lives better, and try to convince people on the fence and the other side that you may be a viable alternative. He has done none of that.
Quote:Second, he picked the wrong running mate. To be fair, this may have been forced on him as the GOP may have removed him and inserted their own candidate causing a huge firestorm in the party and alienating the whole Republican voter base. He should have chosen Ben Carson IMHO. He is well respected by BOTH black and white communities, and would have went a long way towards unifying the party and bringing more voters to the cause.
Quote:Hillary will win, and then I will get to laugh when she tries to explain how bad of a system she inherited even though she has been in the White House for 16 of the last 24 years, creating this huge crap sandwich and it will be pure joy watching her eat every bite of it. WWIII and/or Civil War will be on us very soon, and she will have no one else to blame. Her campaign has been pure garbage as well. Calling half of the voters "deplorable" smacks of the total arrogance of someone who feels like she has the presidency in the bag, and doesn't need to convince them to vote for her or even try to reason with her side.
Quote:The amazing part is that in my lifetime, I will have sat through 3 of the shittiest presidents to ever disgrace the Oval Office, and I didn't vote for any of them. I'm getting old enough that I don't even give a damn what kind of hellhole the younger generations want to make for themselves, because they will have to live in it.
(10-22-2016, 05:09 PM)ronsin Wrote: [ -> ]Trump will lose this election for a couple of reasons.
First, he never got out of the mud-slinging phase. At some point you have to focus on what you are going to do for the voters to make their lives better, and try to convince people on the fence and the other side that you may be a viable alternative. He has done none of that.
Quote:Second, he picked the wrong running mate. To be fair, this may have been forced on him as the GOP may have removed him and inserted their own candidate causing a huge firestorm in the party and alienating the whole Republican voter base. He should have chosen Ben Carson IMHO. He is well respected by BOTH black and white communities, and would have went a long way towards unifying the party and bringing more voters to the cause.
Quote:Hillary will win, and then I will get to laugh when she tries to explain how bad of a system she inherited even though she has been in the White House for 16 of the last 24 years, creating this huge crap sandwich and it will be pure joy watching her eat every bite of it. WWIII and/or Civil War will be on us very soon, and she will have no one else to blame. Her campaign has been pure garbage as well. Calling half of the voters "deplorable" smacks of the total arrogance of someone who feels like she has the presidency in the bag, and doesn't need to convince them to vote for her or even try to reason with her side.
Quote:Surely those people that Hillary Clinton has called 'deplorable' are simply deplorable in their political judgment They may be loving parents who take care of their kids. They may volunteer much in local good works. They may be doing the thankless task of taking care of an incontinent, demented parent. They may give heavily to charity. They might be wonderful workers on their thankless jobs. Even so their political judgment may go beyond deplorable to downright execrable.
Sally Kohn Wrote:It is important for you to understand what Donald Trump represents. He is a mirror reflecting a dark and dangerous part of our history that, whether we like it or not, is in all of us. So I want you to understand the part we've all played, whether we meant to or not, in giving rise to Donald Trump.
(10-22-2016, 05:09 PM)Bronsin Wrote: [ -> ]Calling half of the voters "deplorable" smacks of the total arrogance of someone who feels like she has the presidency in the bag, and doesn't need to convince them to vote for her or even try to reason with her side.
Quote:Undercover reporters posing as consultants acting for a Chinese benefactor approached specific pro-Trump and pro-Clinton fundraisers and groups after receiving information that individuals were involved in hiding foreign donations.
Sources also said PACs, “independent” organisations that can raise unlimited sums of money to lobby for or against particular candidates, were being used to circumvent rules.
The pro-Clinton organisations did not respond to initial approaches. But earlier this month an undercover reporter spoke by telephone to Eric Beach, co-chairman of the pro-Trump Great America PAC, which has the backing of Rudy Giuliani, one of Mr Trump’s most senior advisers, as well as the billionaire's son Eric.
Undercover reporters were invited to a Great America PAC event at Stoney's Rockin Country bar in Las Vegas
The reporter said a Chinese client wished to donate to the PAC to support Mr Trump's campaign.
Mr Beach appeared interested despite raising concerns about his nationality and saying he would need to know the donor’s identity.
He suggested the donation could be put through a social welfare organisation called a 501©(4) - or C4 - , which unlike a PAC is not subject to a blanket ban on receiving foreign money, and not required to name donors. He stressed in an email that "any path we recommend is legal".
The reporter then received an email from Jesse Benton, a senior figure at the PAC until being convicted in May in connection with buying a senator’s endorsement on a prior campaign. He said he was a “consultant” and that Mr Beach had not wanted a “paper trail” of contact. He and the PAC later denied that he had worked for it at all since May.
Mr Benton proposed channelling the donation through his own company to mask its origin. It would then be passed on to two C4s before being donated by them to the PAC, or simply used to fund projects the PAC had already planned.
Mr Benton said the $2 million, for which he would submit an invoice for “appearances” would “definitely allow us to spend two million more dollars on digital and television advertising for Trump.” The Chinese benefactor's generosity would be “whispered into Mr Trump’s ear.” He said he had previously helped US donors conceal donations.
Mr Beach then said at the Vegas event last Wednesday: "Trump knows that you know, people have stuck with him … I’m not gonna twist your arm or anything, I just think that there’s no way that this group, and you guys have been participating indirectly or directly, won’t be remembered."
(10-22-2016, 09:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Part of the potential craziness of a Crisis Era is that a demagogue like Donald Trump might seduce a scared, frustrated nation to vote for him.