Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(08-23-2018, 12:06 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 10:05 PM)Bad Dog Wrote: [ -> ]Pence makes me want Dan Quayle back.

Trump isn't going anywhere, and neither is his base. In Britain, the PM would have been ousted in a week.

Maybe the Brits could loan us a Royal or three?

True demagogues create their own politics, as Trump certainly has.  If it fails in 2020, then no permanent damage will have been done.  If it continues into another Presidential term, then we're faced with the real question: can a cult of personality rule an advanced country without breaking it beyond repair?  I honestly can't say yes, as much as I would like to, which should be scary enough to give us pause.

Dude, the country is already broken beyond repair at this point. All that's needed is a 4T level crisis to get the ball moving on the idea of separating blue America from the rest of America. I'd say blue America has ten years before America lets go of them and sends them adrift to fend for themselves in a changing world with small tyrants who have more money and greater military capabilities than the blue state of whatever name the blues choose, whatever left wing ideological "ism" the majority prefer at the time and whatever flag the majority of blues like the best.

(08-23-2018, 02:44 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 12:06 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 10:05 PM)Bad Dog Wrote: [ -> ]Pence makes me want Dan Quayle back.

Trump isn't going anywhere, and neither is his base. In Britain, the PM would have been ousted in a week.

Maybe the Brits could loan us a Royal or three?

True demagogues create their own politics, as Trump certainly has.  If it fails in 2020, then no permanent damage will have been done.  If it continues into another Presidential term, then we're faced with the real question: can a cult of personality rule an advanced country without breaking it beyond repair?  I honestly can't say yes, as much as I would like to, which should be scary enough to give us pause.

Dude, the country is already broken beyond repair at this point. All that's needed is a 4T level crisis to get the ball moving on the idea of separating blue America from the rest of America. I'd say blue America has ten years before America lets go of them and sends them adrift to fend for themselves in a changing world with small tyrants who have more money and greater military capabilities than the blue state of whatever name the blues choose, whatever left wing ideological "ism" the majority prefer at the time and whatever flag the majority of blues like the best.

America wasn't so badly broken when Obama was President, so the damage that President Trump has done can either be stopped or reversed.

In view of recent polling, "Blue" America is expanding.

Trump is just beginning people who usually vote Republican.

(08-22-2018, 08:22 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]And yet, we have not yet seen a regeneracy.  We have not seen one set of values take over and mow down everything in the path.  We have not seen the trial and error of a crisis, we have only seen the trial and failure of a false regeneracy, ideas which just do not work so the movement fails.  We do have two sets of values taking turns.

We are due for a Crisis by the calendar.  We would be crisis bound if the Industrial Age pattern were holding.  I am dubious.  Add 1964 as the height of the awakening to half of four score and seven and we are well overdue.

We are seeing a faux rejection of the establishment by Trump.  We have a movement to reject Washington DC which could have been a regeneracy if real, and some will say it is a regeneracy.  I do not see it as sincere, as it incorporates The Swamp, so it is failing spectacularly as a false regeneracy.  Bush 43's invasion of Iraq also failed.  The Democrats similarly failed to capture enough ongoing votes to create anything like the New Deal.

Maybe in the near future...

You are seeing obvious signs of a regeneracy going on right in front of your face. The time for S&H's as written, as used by blues and as promoted by its initial followers/believers has already come and gone for the most part. Yet, you're still clinging to it and treating it and using the theory as if it's set in stone. At some point, you have to scrap the theory that you were sold or some how or another convinced as being the truth or gospel and you need to begin to adjust and modify it to bring it in line with the times.

(08-23-2018, 02:44 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 12:06 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 10:05 PM)Bad Dog Wrote: [ -> ]Pence makes me want Dan Quayle back.

Trump isn't going anywhere, and neither is his base. In Britain, the PM would have been ousted in a week.

Maybe the Brits could loan us a Royal or three?

True demagogues create their own politics, as Trump certainly has.  If it fails in 2020, then no permanent damage will have been done.  If it continues into another Presidential term, then we're faced with the real question: can a cult of personality rule an advanced country without breaking it beyond repair?  I honestly can't say yes, as much as I would like to, which should be scary enough to give us pause.

Dude, the country is already broken beyond repair at this point. All that's needed is a 4T level crisis to get the ball moving on the idea of separating blue America from the rest of America. I'd say blue America has ten years before America lets go of them and sends them adrift to fend for themselves in a changing world with small tyrants who have more money and greater military capabilities than the blue state of whatever name the blues choose, whatever left wing ideological "ism" the majority prefer at the time and whatever flag the majority of blues like the best.

Okay as far as that goes, but why would the rest of America send blue America adrift?  Blue America is roughly 56% of the population and 83% of the economy.  If Red America wants to keep everything and cut Blue America loose, then how does it pay the interest on the debt or anything else?  Red America hates taxes and the interest alone will take every dime of the current taxes raised on the 17% of the economy and still come up short.  


It might be better in reverse.

(08-23-2018, 03:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]You are seeing obvious signs of a regeneracy going on right in front of your face. The time for S&H's as written, as used by blues and as promoted by its initial followers/believers has already come and gone for the most part. Yet, you're still clinging to it and treating it and using the theory as if it's set in stone. At some point, you have to scrap the theory that you were sold or some how or another convinced as being the truth or gospel and you need to begin to adjust and modify it to bring it in line with the times.

FWIW, both S&H were Republicans and Howe is still a libertarian.  They both expected quite a different outcome this time -- a revival of laisse faire capitalism.  So far, we have a faux version of fascism and a bunch of SJWs trying to create a perfect world.  Neither of those is feasible in the long run.

(08-23-2018, 03:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 02:44 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 12:06 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 10:05 PM)Bad Dog Wrote: [ -> ]Pence makes me want Dan Quayle back.

Trump isn't going anywhere, and neither is his base. In Britain, the PM would have been ousted in a week.

Maybe the Brits could loan us a Royal or three?

True demagogues create their own politics, as Trump certainly has.  If it fails in 2020, then no permanent damage will have been done.  If it continues into another Presidential term, then we're faced with the real question: can a cult of personality rule an advanced country without breaking it beyond repair?  I honestly can't say yes, as much as I would like to, which should be scary enough to give us pause.

Dude, the country is already broken beyond repair at this point. All that's needed is a 4T level crisis to get the ball moving on the idea of separating blue America from the rest of America. I'd say blue America has ten years before America lets go of them and sends them adrift to fend for themselves in a changing world with small tyrants who have more money and greater military capabilities than the blue state of whatever name the blues choose, whatever left wing ideological "ism" the majority prefer at the time and whatever flag the majority of blues like the best.

America wasn't so badly broken when Obama was President, so the damage that President Trump has done can either be stopped or reversed.

In view of recent polling, "Blue" America is expanding.

Trump is just beginning people who usually vote Republican.

Wishful blue thinking. Dude, the country was as divided under Obama as it is today. You might expand a couple of points with a few right leaning (Trump leaning) Democrats eliminating a few weak Republicans who the Republican base views as expendable in the short term. As I've said, the Republican base doesn't cling to it politicians the way the Democratic base cling to theirs. You place to much stock in polling. Who answers phones and answers questions from pollsters other than the ones who are known to be willing do it on a regular basis? Who's going to waste buckoo time and money on cold calling and reaching unknowns and reaching answering machines and voice mails and no answers? Dude, you're clueless when it comes to understanding business and business getting the most from the time and money that's spent.

Kinser --

As you know I follow the polls closely. Pennsylvania so far looks like the state most likely to contain the 269th and 270th electoral votes (269 or fewer electoral votes sends the election to the House of Representatives) for the winning candidate for President in 2020 as it did in 2016.

A poll of Pennsylvania shows how certain demographic groups go for the President in Pennsylvania.



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-r...fs-n903251

Note the 2% support (as approval) that African-Americans give to the President.

Even white people with no college degree, a critical constituency for Donald Trump, falls short of giving this dreadful President a majority of approval. The only two demographics that support him decisively (50% or more) are "Conservatives" and "Republicans".

To be sure, disapproval and voting against are not quite the same thing, but -- you are not going to win a state in which approval is in the low 30s.

(08-23-2018, 04:05 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 03:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]You are seeing obvious signs of a regeneracy going on right in front of your face. The time for S&H's as written, as used by blues and as promoted by its initial followers/believers has already come and gone for the most part. Yet, you're still clinging to it and treating it and using the theory as if it's set in stone. At some point, you have to scrap the theory that you were sold or some how or another convinced as being the truth or gospel and you need to begin to adjust and modify it to bring it in line with the times.

FWIW, both S&H were Republicans and Howe is still a libertarian.  They both expected quite a different outcome this time -- a revival of laisse faire capitalism.  So far, we have a faux version of fascism and a bunch of SJWs trying to create a perfect world.  Neither of those is feasible in the long run.

Well, from what I see, crony capitalism (faux version of fascism as you say) are now being shifted or voluntarily shifting over to your side where they belong.

(08-23-2018, 05:06 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 04:05 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 03:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]You are seeing obvious signs of a regeneracy going on right in front of your face. The time for S&H's as written, as used by blues and as promoted by its initial followers/believers has already come and gone for the most part. Yet, you're still clinging to it and treating it and using the theory as if it's set in stone. At some point, you have to scrap the theory that you were sold or some how or another convinced as being the truth or gospel and you need to begin to adjust and modify it to bring it in line with the times.

FWIW, both S&H were Republicans and Howe is still a libertarian.  They both expected quite a different outcome this time -- a revival of laisse faire capitalism.  So far, we have a faux version of fascism and a bunch of SJWs trying to create a perfect world.  Neither of those is feasible in the long run.

Well, from what I see, crony capitalism (faux version of fascism as you say) are now being shifted or voluntarily shifting over to your side where they belong.

Well, from what I see, from the age of slavery, to the Guilded Age, the New Deal, through the Southern Strategy, through the National Malaise, though Reagan's unravelling, the Republicans have always been the party of the rich capitalists.  The Republicans switched from being on the side of the slave to the side of the racists.  They switched from the side of isolation to the side of the worlds police.  They are ever the opportunists.  But the constant is in going with the capitalist class, crony capitalism.

I see fascists as being different.  I have no love for Republicans, but I wouldn't use 'fascist' to describe them.  They are different enough for their own label.

But, yes, some of the Democrats are playing on the capitalist side.  It has gotten to be lately that you win by letting the capitalists finance your campaign ads, not by serving the people.  This has begun to shift, with Trump defeating well financed well experienced establishment of both flavors.

But a rejection of ad money in favor of having a clean money trail hasn't caught on, and just saying you are for some of the People is not enough.

(08-23-2018, 05:06 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 04:05 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 03:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]You are seeing obvious signs of a regeneracy going on right in front of your face. The time for S&H's as written, as used by blues and as promoted by its initial followers/believers has already come and gone for the most part. Yet, you're still clinging to it and treating it and using the theory as if it's set in stone. At some point, you have to scrap the theory that you were sold or some how or another convinced as being the truth or gospel and you need to begin to adjust and modify it to bring it in line with the times.

FWIW, both S&H were Republicans and Howe is still a libertarian.  They both expected quite a different outcome this time -- a revival of laisse faire capitalism.  So far, we have a faux version of fascism and a bunch of SJWs trying to create a perfect world.  Neither of those is feasible in the long run.

Well, from what I see, crony capitalism (faux version of fascism as you say) are now being shifted or voluntarily shifting over to your side where they belong.

I see an entire administration lining its pockets.  Note: none are Democrats.  Where its the Betsy DeVos of the left?  Or Wilber Ross, for that matter? And that is peanuts in comparison to the guy at the top.

I could go down the line, but why bother.  You won't agree anyway.

(08-23-2018, 11:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]But, yes, some of the Democrats are playing on the capitalist side.  It has gotten to be lately that you win by letting the capitalists finance your campaign ads, not by serving the people.  This has begun to shift, with Trump defeating well financed well experienced establishment of both flavors.

But a rejection of ad money in favor of having a clean money trail hasn't caught on, and just saying you are for some of the People is not enough.

The Democrats are in a Catch-22 on this issue.  Most want to reject Big Money, but the SCOTUS anointed it as "speech" so Big Money is in for now.  Saying no is the same as capitulating to the GOP.  And no, I don't have a pat answer to this.

(08-23-2018, 03:59 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 02:44 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 12:06 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 10:05 PM)Bad Dog Wrote: [ -> ]Pence makes me want Dan Quayle back.

Trump isn't going anywhere, and neither is his base. In Britain, the PM would have been ousted in a week.

Maybe the Brits could loan us a Royal or three?

True demagogues create their own politics, as Trump certainly has.  If it fails in 2020, then no permanent damage will have been done.  If it continues into another Presidential term, then we're faced with the real question: can a cult of personality rule an advanced country without breaking it beyond repair?  I honestly can't say yes, as much as I would like to, which should be scary enough to give us pause.

Dude, the country is already broken beyond repair at this point. All that's needed is a 4T level crisis to get the ball moving on the idea of separating blue America from the rest of America. I'd say blue America has ten years before America lets go of them and sends them adrift to fend for themselves in a changing world with small tyrants who have more money and greater military capabilities than the blue state of whatever name the blues choose, whatever left wing ideological "ism" the majority prefer at the time and whatever flag the majority of blues like the best.

Okay as far as that goes, but why would the rest of America send blue America adrift?  Blue America is roughly 56% of the population and 83% of the economy.  If Red America wants to keep everything and cut Blue America loose, then how does it pay the interest on the debt or anything else?  Red America hates taxes and the interest alone will take every dime of the current taxes raised on the 17% of the economy and still come up short.  


It might be better in reverse.

Why wouldn't we? How much of the debt is related to blues and blue policies? How many issues that we have are directly related to blues and blue policies? It might be better in reverse. I wish there was a way you and the blues could find out in advance how devastating its going to be for blues when big government can no longer dish out the way its able to dish out today. Red America hates blues and hates paying for their policies and hates the idea of fascism, socialism and communism. Red America views welfare as a bad thing. Red America views illegal immigration as a bad thing. We are just scratching the surface at this point. What you see now ain't nothing compared to what the blues will be seeing, experiencing and dealing with as far as violence & chaos occurring WITHIN THEIR AREAS IN 10 YEARS.

(08-24-2018, 11:55 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 03:59 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 02:44 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 12:06 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 10:05 PM)Bad Dog Wrote: [ -> ]Pence makes me want Dan Quayle back.

Trump isn't going anywhere, and neither is his base. In Britain, the PM would have been ousted in a week.

Maybe the Brits could loan us a Royal or three?

True demagogues create their own politics, as Trump certainly has.  If it fails in 2020, then no permanent damage will have been done.  If it continues into another Presidential term, then we're faced with the real question: can a cult of personality rule an advanced country without breaking it beyond repair?  I honestly can't say yes, as much as I would like to, which should be scary enough to give us pause.

Dude, the country is already broken beyond repair at this point. All that's needed is a 4T level crisis to get the ball moving on the idea of separating blue America from the rest of America. I'd say blue America has ten years before America lets go of them and sends them adrift to fend for themselves in a changing world with small tyrants who have more money and greater military capabilities than the blue state of whatever name the blues choose, whatever left wing ideological "ism" the majority prefer at the time and whatever flag the majority of blues like the best.

Okay as far as that goes, but why would the rest of America send blue America adrift?  Blue America is roughly 56% of the population and 83% of the economy.  If Red America wants to keep everything and cut Blue America loose, then how does it pay the interest on the debt or anything else?  Red America hates taxes and the interest alone will take every dime of the current taxes raised on the 17% of the economy and still come up short.  


It might be better in reverse.

Why wouldn't we? How much of the debt is related to blues and blue policies? How many issues that we have are directly related to blues and blue policies? It might be better in reverse. I wish there was a way you and the blues could find out in advance how devastating its going to be for blues when big government can no longer dish out the way its able to dish out today. Red America hates blues and hates paying for their policies and hates the idea of fascism, socialism and communism. Red America views welfare as a bad thing. Red America views illegal immigration as a bad thing. We are just scratching the surface at this point. What you see now ain't nothing compared to what the blues will be seeing, experiencing and dealing with as far as violence & chaos occurring WITHIN THEIR AREAS IN 10 YEARS.

We are in the same country. If we have the same income, we generally pay much the same income taxes. The payout of Social Security is the same in New York City (very blue) or Odessa, Texas (very Red). Red and Blue America send their kids to the same wars and we honor their dead just the same. Red and Blue America both collect welfare payments if broke. Hunger or welfare? I think that welfare is the humane choice for a family and for society as a whole. The biggest employers of illegal aliens include the right-wing farm and ranch interests. They usually get passes from INS.

"Blue" areas include people who have no use for any of the chaos that you ascribe to their beliefs. Jews are very strongly Democratic. They're generally nice people to be around. Asian-Americans? Although that category includes people as diverse as Pakistanis, Koreans, and Filipinos, they seem to do much well. Middle-class blacks and Hispanics? They get respect from poor ones by not abandoning their poor to the worst that Trump can do. Arab-Americans? What does Trump have to offer them?

And remember: there are "Blue" areas in "Red states" (think of most large cities in Texas, and the border area) and "Red" areas in blue states (like most of Illinois outside of Greater Chicago). The grain that grows in 'Red' rural America goes through lake and river ports in 'Blue' cities. Coal and iron ore mined in 'Red' America gets combined with limestone in 'Blue' Gary, Indiana (sure, that is a dump) to make steel that we all need.

(08-24-2018, 11:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 05:06 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 04:05 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-23-2018, 03:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]You are seeing obvious signs of a regeneracy going on right in front of your face. The time for S&H's as written, as used by blues and as promoted by its initial followers/believers has already come and gone for the most part. Yet, you're still clinging to it and treating it and using the theory as if it's set in stone. At some point, you have to scrap the theory that you were sold or some how or another convinced as being the truth or gospel and you need to begin to adjust and modify it to bring it in line with the times.

FWIW, both S&H were Republicans and Howe is still a libertarian.  They both expected quite a different outcome this time -- a revival of laisse faire capitalism.  So far, we have a faux version of fascism and a bunch of SJWs trying to create a perfect world.  Neither of those is feasible in the long run.

Well, from what I see, crony capitalism (faux version of fascism as you say) are now being shifted or voluntarily shifting over to your side where they belong.

I see an entire administration lining its pockets.  Note: none are Democrats.  Where its the Betsy DeVos of the left?  Or Wilber Ross, for that matter? And that is peanuts in comparison to the guy at the top.

I could go down the line, but why bother.  You won't agree anyway.

You most likely voted for a woman who was lining her pockets for years as the First Lady and an elected or appointed GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL. I don't care  if Trump made a fortune as a private citizen within the private sector, as a high end real estate developer for decades. Me, I see obvious signs associated with doing something big on a whim and operating a shoe string budget with no support from the Republican establishment that's in the process of being eliminated or pushed out or being replaced by a temporary Democrat.

(08-24-2018, 12:33 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]And remember: there are "Blue" areas in "Red states" (think of most large cities in Texas, and the border area) and "Red" areas in blue states (like most of Illinois outside of Greater Chicago). The grain that grows in 'Red' rural America goes through lake and river ports in 'Blue' cities. Coal and iron ore mined in 'Red' America gets combined with limestone in 'Blue' Gary, Indiana (sure, that is a dump) to make steel that we all need. I 

Are you a typical Democratic voter or a blue? There's a difference between the two. I now have direct access to blues because there's a difference between the two of them. As I've either said or mentioned, I used to have to go through a bunch of typical Democratic voters to get to the blues that I had issues with. I don't have that issue anymore. I have direct access to blues and I'm free to do as I please. Times have changed and the amount of support that I've gained across the board has increased substantially.

(08-23-2018, 11:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Well, from what I see, from the age of slavery, to the Guilded Age, the New Deal, through the Southern Strategy, through the National Malaise, though Reagan's unravelling, the Republicans have always been the party of the rich capitalists.  The Republicans switched from being on the side of the slave to the side of the racists.  They switched from the side of isolation to the side of the worlds police.  They are ever the opportunists.  But the constant is in going with the capitalist class, crony capitalism.

I see fascists as being different.  I have no love for Republicans, but I wouldn't use 'fascist' to describe them.  They are different enough for their own label.

But, yes, some of the Democrats are playing on the capitalist side.  It has gotten to be lately that you win by letting the capitalists finance your campaign ads, not by serving the people.  This has begun to shift, with Trump defeating well financed well experienced establishment of both flavors.

But a rejection of ad money in favor of having a clean money trail hasn't caught on, and just saying you are for some of the People is not enough.

You can call me a Republican voter because that's what I am and what I have been for a long time. You can call me rich because that's what I am compared to PB, a typical member of the blue working class or a low end blue voter surviving off government subsidies. As far us ( the two of us), we are equals whether you like it or not. As you know, I have no love for the Democrats and I place no value on the Democratic party of today whatsoever. Some day, if you happen to live long enough, you will find out how accurate my view of things are pertaining the blues, the blue system, its opportunistic use of multiple values pertaining to multiple groups of people and the future of blue America as a whole.

(08-22-2018, 06:24 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 03:35 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-21-2018, 10:13 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: [ -> ]The Dims have been out to lunch for quite some time now.  I've not considered them to be a serious party in ages, and their establishment is even more out to lunch than the laity.

Do the Dims have more than sheer outrage at Trump to offer?  So far, after the last two years the answer seems to be no.  In the end people will look at their wallet and decide if they are better off.  Judging from how certain demographics are reacting it may be that many are coming to the conclusion that the Dims do not have anything to offer.

It is clear that we are in a fourth turning and it seems that the usual rules are breaking down which is to be expected in a Fourth Turning.  It would not be surprising if Trump is recognized as a necessary disruption to the status quo in the future.

I would argue he is more than that.  He is providing not only the necessary disruption to the previous status quo, but also providing the vision required to set up a new status quo.  In short he is in fact the quote, unquote, long awaited Gray Champion.  His main problem with the libtards liberal Boomers on this board is that he isn't the Gray Champion that they wanted.

An unfortunate consequence of more people living to elderhood seems to be that there more people around to whine about how their favorite pet project from the 2T isn't at the forefront of the 4T.

It is far too early to tell if Trump is the Grey Champion but he is definitely not playing the same game as the usual Beltway crowd.  He is best understood by using Scott Adams Master Persuader Model.  So far the press is calling the mid-terms for the Dims just like they did with with the Hildabeast in 2016.  While it won't be known until after the election it would not surprise me if the MSM was gas-lighting the public again.  I suggest that Pbrower check for oversampling of Dims in the polls since that is what they did in 2016.

(08-24-2018, 04:01 PM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 06:24 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 03:35 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-21-2018, 10:13 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: [ -> ]The Dims have been out to lunch for quite some time now.  I've not considered them to be a serious party in ages, and their establishment is even more out to lunch than the laity.

Do the Dims have more than sheer outrage at Trump to offer?  So far, after the last two years the answer seems to be no.  In the end people will look at their wallet and decide if they are better off.  Judging from how certain demographics are reacting it may be that many are coming to the conclusion that the Dims do not have anything to offer.

It is clear that we are in a fourth turning and it seems that the usual rules are breaking down which is to be expected in a Fourth Turning.  It would not be surprising if Trump is recognized as a necessary disruption to the status quo in the future.

I would argue he is more than that.  He is providing not only the necessary disruption to the previous status quo, but also providing the vision required to set up a new status quo.  In short he is in fact the quote, unquote, long awaited Gray Champion.  His main problem with the libtards liberal Boomers on this board is that he isn't the Gray Champion that they wanted.

An unfortunate consequence of more people living to elderhood seems to be that there more people around to whine about how their favorite pet project from the 2T isn't at the forefront of the 4T.

It is far too early to tell if Trump is the Grey Champion but he is definitely not playing the same game as the usual Beltway crowd.  He is best understood by using Scott Adams Master Persuader Model.  So far the press is calling the mid-terms for the Dims just like they did with with the Hildabeast in 2016.  While it won't be known until after the election it would not surprise me if the MSM was gas-lighting the public again.  I suggest that Pbrower check for oversampling of Dims in the polls since that is what they did in 2016.

1. Americans do not tolerate corruption by elected officials. They accept no excuses. They want any politician who embezzles, takes bribes, or solicits bribes. This is not a partisan statement, as it applies to both Democrats and Republicans.

2. Americans do not trust the tariffs to work for America. A trade war can put an end to the Obama-era recovery. Donald Trump was effective in ensuring that people who would endure the pain or feel offense at his policy changes were the same people who were never going to vote for him. He walked that tightrope well. Any trade war likely hurts people who usually vote Republican through reduced income and higher costs of living. Tax cuts will be inadequate compensation for reduced income from lower revenues and higher costs.

If there is any organization that I would like to see conduct a poll now it would be the arch-conservative National Farm Bureau, advocates for farmers and ranchers and their economic interests. I'm guessing that Trump could be hurting farmers and ranchers -- in which case he loses approval in several states that have never voted for a Republican for president since 1964.

I would have never expected this -- but I did not expect so incompetent and impulsive person to ever become President... until he actually became President.

3. The most likely view of Donald Trump is that he will be an example of what not to do as President. The next President will not make the same mistakes, whatever his ideology. A conservative President will not divide NATO, will not pretend that vicious racists are nice people, will not get cozy with authoritarian regimes but instead make arms-length deals that imply that the deals are good enough for both to make compliance certain, will undo the Trump tariffs, and will insist upon due process of law even when such frustrates his agenda.

As Herodotus puts it, character is destiny... and the character of Donald Trump is undeniably horrible.

4. Grey champion? Can anyone compare Donald Trump to Benjamin Franklin, Samuel Adams, Benjamin D'israeli, Abraham Lincoln, Giuseppe Garibaldi, Benito Juarez, Sun Yat Sen, Mohandas Gandhi, Leon Blum, Sir Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, Carl Mannerheim, or Konrad Adenauer?

5. This is no longer the autumn of 2016. We are still stuck with the electoral results of the November 2016 election. Donald Trump has imposed the most revolutionary changes in American politics since the Civil War. As demonstrated by some very bad leaders who achieved power in their own revolutions, revolution is not reliably benign. Donald Trump is so offensive to Americans that he has disapproval of a majority even without a military or diplomatic debacle having materialized, and without an economic meltdown.

STATES THAT DONALD TRUMP WON OR LOST BY 10% OR LESS IN 2016:

ST APP DIS MGN-16

NM 35  54    -8
VA  32  53    -5
CO 34  52    -5
ME 32  54    -3
NV  42 55    -2
MN  40 54    -1  (REQ 30-60)
NH  41 54    -0   (REQ 41-50, maybe as much as 41-57)
MI   41 54    +0  (REQ 28-60)
PA  37 53    +1
WI  45 53    +1  (REQ 31-63)
FL   42 46    +1  (REQ 37-54)
AZ  42 52    +4   (REQ 35-57)
NC  43  50    +4
GA  46  49    +5
OH  42  51   +8   (REQ 34-58)
TX  47  45    +9
IA   44  49    +9

ST is the postal code of the state, APP is the approval rating of the President in the latest poll, DIS is the disapproval rating in the latest poll, and MGN-16 is the margin of the Trump loss if negative or the Trump win in 2016. REQ for seven states (it is not available yet) is a response to the question "Do you expect to vote to re-elect the President or do you expect to not vote to re-elect the President". For one of the states (NH) I have an ambiguity because I have combined "strong likelihood" and "mere likelihood" for voting to re-elect him but given Trump more leeway with people who say that they are simply "unlikely" to vote for him. I am very cautious with statistical models as predictive devices.

Can Trump win re-election in 2020? Sure.

1. if the political culture shifts to endorse the Trump way of thought in the next two years. Not likely. He is not the sort who wins people over from the Other Side. He is no great speaker or thinker, and there is no religious shift making people more 'conservative' as happened under Reagan.

2. He must lower Americans' expectations. Anyone old enough to vote will remember Obama, whom the vast majority of Americans consider far better.

3. The Democrats must splinter in the nomination process or nominate someone of unprecedented ineptitude. Possible, but somehow I consider the defeat of Donald Trump an objective not to be sacrificed.It is more likely that a conservative secedes from supporting the President or that a conservative alternative takes a big chunk of Republican-leaning votes from him.

4. He can make a sharp turn in his Presidency and start doing much more right. I doubt this. Once one gets on his bad side one stays on his bad side.

5. HE CAN CHEAT. Rigged election? God help us!


...I distrust a President who acts more dictatorially or despotically than any previous President.


Finally -- this is no longer the autumn of 2016. Many who gave him a chance then regret their vote. Few regret not voting for him. Donald Trump got elected by winning the right votes instead of winning the majority. Nothing has yet happened to give him more support than he got in 2016. Nothing says that he will pick up any state that he lost in 2016, and he stands to lose states that he must win to get re-elected. Yes, he has changed the political climate of America, but not to his advantage.

(08-24-2018, 04:01 PM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 06:24 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-22-2018, 03:35 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-21-2018, 10:13 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: [ -> ]The Dims have been out to lunch for quite some time now.  I've not considered them to be a serious party in ages, and their establishment is even more out to lunch than the laity.

Do the Dims have more than sheer outrage at Trump to offer?  So far, after the last two years the answer seems to be no.  In the end people will look at their wallet and decide if they are better off.  Judging from how certain demographics are reacting it may be that many are coming to the conclusion that the Dims do not have anything to offer.

It is clear that we are in a fourth turning and it seems that the usual rules are breaking down which is to be expected in a Fourth Turning.  It would not be surprising if Trump is recognized as a necessary disruption to the status quo in the future.

I would argue he is more than that.  He is providing not only the necessary disruption to the previous status quo, but also providing the vision required to set up a new status quo.  In short he is in fact the quote, unquote, long awaited Gray Champion.  His main problem with the libtards liberal Boomers on this board is that he isn't the Gray Champion that they wanted.

An unfortunate consequence of more people living to elderhood seems to be that there more people around to whine about how their favorite pet project from the 2T isn't at the forefront of the 4T.

It is far too early to tell if Trump is the Grey Champion but he is definitely not playing the same game as the usual Beltway crowd.  He is best understood by using Scott Adams Master Persuader Model.  So far the press is calling the mid-terms for the Dims just like they did with with the Hildabeast in 2016.  While it won't be known until after the election it would not surprise me if the MSM was gas-lighting the public again.  I suggest that Pbrower check for oversampling of Dims in the polls since that is what they did in 2016.

I don’t see Trump as the  Grey Champion.  He is an abuser of women and encourages racists.  As such, he not only goes against the Whig arrow of progress, but the Peoples idea of what should be tolerated.  Every once in a while, the culture starts rejecting behavior that was previously accepted.  Recently the traditional priestly abuse of children generated outrage, the rainbow flag has triumped, and abuse of women with the Me Too movement has risen.  There are counter movements.  With the rise of Trump has come a boldness in the direction of racism.  It is an issue of the times.

Trump is also with the capitalistic class.  He hired a bunch of billionaires.  He worked with the Republican Party, which is traditionally with the capitalists.  The Grey Champion is generally a supporter of the people, rather than the elite.

On another front, what is the see saw?  Why does power keep switching between the parties?  What period is it switching?

The People keep checking the party which pretends at a mandate.  The president attempts to forward the agenda that put him in power, but he generally loses the Congress in the process.  He really only has two years to push and doesn’t get far as the other party pushes back.  However, the country as a whole is not in favor of either agenda.  They will elect a congress that opposes the president.  This is true of Obama and Obamacare as it is with Trump.

Trump won a minority victory and is pushing an extreme agenda.  I anticipate he has flipped the see saw.  We will see with the midterms.

In the longer term, the incumbent seems to have the advantage holding on to the presidency.  We have had a number of two term presidents lately.  Trump would have to make himself very unpopular to lose to a no-name Democratic candidate.  Again, we will have to see.  I think he is that unpopular.

Bush 43 seems to be worth looking at.  He was traditionally unpopular, his rating most of the time was falling.  He had three big bounces though, after September 11, after the invasion of Afghanistan, and after the invasion of Iraq.  Americans traditionally rally to their president with major military actions.  One such action, resulting in one such bounce, Iraq, made Bush 43 a two term president.

Could Trump use this effect?  Could he time a military action just before the 2020 elections?

It would not be easy.  The Cut and Run side beat the Stay the Course side with Iraq.  American values today do not favor commitment of US ground troops abroad.  Just because it is not easy doesn’t mean it won’t be tried.

In the Middle East, it is also against the arrow of progress.  In Syria, the various factions are more loyal to religious, tribal or political local structures than the Enlightenment notions of tolerance and equality.  The locals will fight for their own.  The people with modern ideals have left already.  Eventually, the newer values might have an edge.  They would be expected to triumph.  Certainly, the current stalemate has nothing to be valued.  Switching to modern values takes years, takes generations.  Look at how many wars the Europeans and Americans had to fight.  Why should we expect the Middle East to be quicker, more flexible?

In the long term, I would expect the Whig arrow of progress to triumph… in the very long term.  In the same way, I would say the current battle for equality in America will stick.  Women will not be abused as much.  Minorities will become more equal.  US citizens will have their rights.  As such, I do not expect anyone to seriously call Trump the Grey Champion.  He is just on the wrong side of the arrow of progress.

Is he not playing the same game as the usual Beltway crowd?  Oh, yah.  That is one place where I would agree with Galen.  One upside of the Trump era is how the People rejected the establishment.

But…. If unilateral, serial nation building had worked, we would call Bush 43 Grey Champion.  If Obamacare had been embraced by the whole county, we would call Obama Grey Champion.  Two big ifs. Both  presidents tried to spread their values to the nation, but failed.  Trump, too, is failing.  The majority that opposed him in 2016 has been joined by others.  Thus, the see saw remains in play.

To become Grey Champion, your new values which transform the country have to be seen by a clear majority to work.  That is not easy in a time when the organized media and politicians are ready to point at things and say “Not Working!”

I'm still trying to see the words "Trump", and "Grey Champion" in the same sentence....

Must need new glasses again.