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** 22-Oct-2020 World View: Regeneracy events

Higgenbotham Wrote:> https://www.theverge.com/21507966/foxcon...hole-trump

> Americans still don't understand what's happening. Not sure what
> it will take to get them to understand.

From the point of view of generational theory, what it takes is a
"regeneracy event." In America in 1861 it was the disastrous
Battle of Bull Run. In Britain in 1939, it was Hitler's invasion
of Poland. In America in 1941, it was the bombing of Pearl Harbor,
followed by the Bataan Death March.

So what will the event be this time?
** 22-Oct-2020 World View: Clear as mud

Guest Wrote:> So this is all clear as mud.

> The youthful protesters in Thailand and Hong Kong are
> pro-democracy. The people of Taiwan are (mostly)
> anti-communists. The youthful protesters in America are
> pro-communism. Apparently, the youthful protesters in America
> don’t know much about the communism they support because they
> don’t talk to the youthful protesters in Thailand and Hong Kong or
> they would have learned a thing or two about the horrors of real
> life with commusocialism authoritarian rule.

> The South Koreans are mixed up about who they would support,
> depending on who does what first. The Vietnamese, Philippians,
> Japanese and several other countries are in grave danger from the
> Chinese racists attacking them in the South China Sea and the US
> would defend them if China attacks them but if Biden wins, who the
> Communist Party loves, then we might just let China do what it
> wants so all those countries will be devastated and then the whole
> world will hate us for not defending them. But the whole world
> hates us now, according to Obama, because Trump is our President.

> Turkey and Russia hate each other for various reasons, Russia
> likes Syria and Iran but Russia also likes Trump who hates Iran
> and Syria except that everyone hates Isis so we’ll all be cool
> together and get rid of those mf’s because they are likely to
> start a war somewhere and nobody wants a war. India and Pakistan
> hate each other and are near war at their border and India and
> China hate each other and are near war at that border. India and
> Iran like each other and don’t like the countries between them,
> but Iran hates America and India loves America. There is a Milk
> Tea Alliance between India and Taiwan that pisses off China so,
> since Pakistan likes China, India is likely to be attacked on two
> fronts. But if Biden wins, even though we love milk and tea here
> in America, we probably won’t help defend India because Biden
> loves China and he does not like milk or tea, even though he likes
> milkshakes, that’s not the same thing as milk because it’s made
> from ice cream. You can fact check that. But Biden also loves
> Iran, because they hate America and he does too.

> But Europe, who the Democrats think did such a wonderful job of
> locking down their countries to get rid of the coronavirus, are
> now resurging with the stuff and their economies are trashed. In
> America, we are getting back on our feet but the resurgence of
> coronavirus is all Trumps fault because he banned travel from
> China and Europe and listened to the CDC for guidance but then he
> killed 200,000 Americans with a virus that China unleashed on the
> world but the Democrats think that Trump did it because they don’t
> believe anything bad about the Chinese and they believe all kinds
> of bad lies about Trump.

> Africa countries owe too much money to all the other countries on
> Earth to really be on anyone’s side. Anyway, they hate each other
> so much and they kill each other so much that it’s not hard to
> just forget about them. I don’t know all that much about South
> America except that every country there is liable to be overthrown
> every now and again so who knows when or where that will happen. I
> have heard that Chile is wonderful because the government is open
> about UFO’s and tells the people the truth about them. I don’t
> know if their government tells the people the truth about anything
> else. There is so much lying going on everywhere that I think no
> one knows how to tell the truth anymore.

> I think I would really like to move to Greenland because the ice
> is melting there and there should be some really fertile and rich
> soil underneath it all. I think there are about a thousand people
> who live there and I’m sure they are like me, they just want all
> this bad stuff in the world to go away.

> But since I can’t move to Greenland, I really do appreciate this
> website that helps me at least know why the world is in such
> shambles and to prepare for it to get worse…then it will get
> better. Because that IS what happens according to Generational
> Dynamics. That’s the world I’m looking forward to. Thank you,
> John!

That's a pretty good summary of the world. Thanks.

The "youthful protesters in America" are not just too stupid to
understand communism. In almost all cases, they're too stupid to even
understand second grade math.

But what's this about UFOs in Chile?
(10-22-2020, 07:37 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]** 22-Oct-2020 World View: Clear as mud

Guest Wrote:>   So this is all clear as mud.

>   The youthful protesters in Thailand and Hong Kong are
>   pro-democracy. The people of Taiwan are (mostly)
>   anti-communists. The youthful protesters in America are
>   pro-communism. Apparently, the youthful protesters in America
>   don’t know much about the communism they support because they
>   don’t talk to the youthful protesters in Thailand and Hong Kong or
>   they would have learned a thing or two about the horrors of real
>   life with commusocialism authoritarian rule.

>   The South Koreans are mixed up about who they would support,
>   depending on who does what first. The Vietnamese, Philippians,
>   Japanese and several other countries are in grave danger from the
>   Chinese racists attacking them in the South China Sea and the US
>   would defend them if China attacks them but if Biden wins, who the
>   Communist Party loves, then we might just let China do what it
>   wants so all those countries will be devastated and then the whole
>   world will hate us for not defending them. But the whole world
>   hates us now, according to Obama, because Trump is our President.

>   Turkey and Russia hate each other for various reasons, Russia
>   likes Syria and Iran but Russia also likes Trump who hates Iran
>   and Syria except that everyone hates Isis so we’ll all be cool
>   together and get rid of those mf’s because they are likely to
>   start a war somewhere and nobody wants a war. India and Pakistan
>   hate each other and are near war at their border and India and
>   China hate each other and are near war at that border. India and
>   Iran like each other and don’t like the countries between them,
>   but Iran hates America and India loves America. There is a Milk
>   Tea Alliance between India and Taiwan that pisses off China so,
>   since Pakistan likes China, India is likely to be attacked on two
>   fronts. But if Biden wins, even though we love milk and tea here
>   in America, we probably won’t help defend India because Biden
>   loves China and he does not like milk or tea, even though he likes
>   milkshakes, that’s not the same thing as milk because it’s made
>   from ice cream. You can fact check that. But Biden also loves
>   Iran, because they hate America and he does too.

>   But Europe, who the Democrats think did such a wonderful job of
>   locking down their countries to get rid of the coronavirus, are
>   now resurging with the stuff and their economies are trashed. In
>   America, we are getting back on our feet but the resurgence of
>   coronavirus is all Trumps fault because he banned travel from
>   China and Europe and listened to the CDC for guidance but then he
>   killed 200,000 Americans with a virus that China unleashed on the
>   world but the Democrats think that Trump did it because they don’t
>   believe anything bad about the Chinese and they believe all kinds
>   of bad lies about Trump.

>   Africa countries owe too much money to all the other countries on
>   Earth to really be on anyone’s side. Anyway, they hate each other
>   so much and they kill each other so much that it’s not hard to
>   just forget about them. I don’t know all that much about South
>   America except that every country there is liable to be overthrown
>   every now and again so who knows when or where that will happen. I
>   have heard that Chile is wonderful because the government is open
>   about UFO’s and tells the people the truth about them. I don’t
>   know if their government tells the people the truth about anything
>   else. There is so much lying going on everywhere that I think no
>   one knows how to tell the truth anymore.

>   I think I would really like to move to Greenland because the ice
>   is melting there and there should be some really fertile and rich
>   soil underneath it all. I think there are about a thousand people
>   who live there and I’m sure they are like me, they just want all
>   this bad stuff in the world to go away.

>   But since I can’t move to Greenland, I really do appreciate this
>   website that helps me at least know why the world is in such
>   shambles and to prepare for it to get worse…then it will get
>   better. Because that IS what happens according to Generational
>   Dynamics. That’s the world I’m looking forward to. Thank you,
>   John!

That's a pretty good summary of the world.  Thanks.

The "youthful protesters in America" are not just too stupid to
understand communism.  In almost all cases, they're too stupid to even
understand second grade math.

But what's this about UFOs in Chile?

America has plenty of equivalents of "Beavis and Butthead", and considering that those types are Generation X and are largely in their forties and fifties, they still vote. They may now have been culled for self-destructive stupidity (think of the Darwin Awards that mock people who make catastrophic errors that kill themselves), but they never learned much. I can imagine "Beavis and Butthead" as Trump supporters because Trump supporters believe in one of the most hare-brained ideologies ever brought forth. 

Stupidity is hardly an asset for getting ahead in life in any system. America has, if anything, and over-educated proletariat  that sees itself doomed to an economic order of trickle-down economics that allows people to pay too much for what they get or to pick up what people slough off as they go to the nursing home, die, or can't afford to pay storage on their stuff. 

Neoliberal economics has created an economic order in which a few people who own the assets or administer access to opportunity in bureaucratic organizations whose power over people results from economic concentration and vertical integration can take just about everything that they want. Such prosperity as those elites have offers "trickle-down" ideology but a reality of rigid control of access to the goodies of a bourgeois society. People are welcome to commit themselves to debt, and as economic opportunity increasingly concentrates in a few areas of monstrous rents, anyone not part of the entrenched elite simply gets squeezed like the prey of a constrictor snake. Unlike the prey of a constrictor snake, the human victims of our system see no end of its misery as the snake suffocates the prey and stifles the circulation of blood. Human survivors get to be exploited in a system that resembles bad social orders in science-fiction nightmares (the Planet Mongo of Flash Gordon serials, the Romulan and Klingon Empires of Star Trek, First Galactic Empire of the Star Wars series), 

I recognize that Donald Trump differs from tyrants like Lenin, Mussolini, Hitler, Franco, Trujillo, Mao, Assad, and Castro in failing to get the "Dictator's Playbook" right; Trump failed to crush or co-opt his opposition to establish a monopoly clique before culling his "court" of flunkies.  Mercifully we still have some semblance of democracy, and that can be enough to end the disaster that is Donald Trump -- if not the consequences of a nasty man sowing divisions and bungling the response to COVID-19. Donald Trump differs from "Berzelius Windrip" of Sinclair Lewis' It Can't Happen Here only in being a big landlord instead of a druggist.

One need not be a Marxist to think Donald Trump terribly wrong, or to recognize the sleaziness of our economic order.
** 23-Oct-2020 World View: China's fishing fleet in Japan

Guest Wrote:> Japan’s Fisheries Agency has advised Japanese fishing boats to
> avoid certain areas within Japan’s own exclusive economic zone and
> operate elsewhere after thousands of Chinese fishing boats ignored
> Tokyo’s previous warnings.

> http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13856515

> Just more incremental provocation by the Chinese. Not a surprise
> to see it but I wonder how much farther Japan will have to retreat
> before the people demand that the government take a stand.

Those fishing boats are not just there for fishing. They're
essentially part of China's military, and are equipped with
intelligence gathering and communications equipment for the military.
In any war between China and Japan, the fishing fleet will play an
essential role, and may even take part in the fighting.

One thing that confuses me about this article is the confused
non-response by the Japanese. I guess that must be a policy to avoid
provoking a military confrontation with China, but as you point out,
it won't be long before Japanese nationalism becomes a factor.
(10-23-2020, 04:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]America has plenty of equivalents of "Beavis and Butthead", and considering that those types are Generation X and are largely in their forties and fifties, they still vote. They may now have been culled for self-destructive stupidity (think of the Darwin Awards that mock people who make catastrophic errors that kill themselves), but they never learned much. I can imagine "Beavis and Butthead" as Trump supporters because Trump supporters believe in one of the most hare-brained ideologies ever brought forth...  (More stuff pretty much true.)

Not so long ago, it became ritual to call all Democrats communist, and all Republicans fascist.  There is an element of truth to it, but I would not at all have difficulty telling the difference between Hitler’s or Stalin’s approach to things and what the US is doing.  This is not the 1930s and 1940s.

Looking at it from a different slant, you can see it as dominance of policy by a particular class.  With rulers like Atilla, Napoleon and Hitler taking charge, the policy was tribal, aggressive, and territory oriented.  The more land one controlled, the more powerful one was.  This was very true in the Agricultural Age and became less true as the Industrial Age progressed.  With destructive weapons such as the machine gun and the nuke, with defensive alliances and proxy wars becoming better established, it became harder to profit from war.  This is not to say people will still try.  If you look at Bush 43’s Middle Eastern efforts as colonial imperialism revisited, as a war for oil, no matter how many noble excuses he came to use in public, it is still a thing that is tried.  If you do, you are apt to fail.  More and more the elites and the leaders are not apt to try.  There are more cost effective rackets.

There is a second class struggle where the robber barons attempt to keep wealth at the expense of the people.  The most visible indication is an extreme division of wealth.  If you are trying to cut benefits, limit the power of unions and ship jobs overseas where it is more profitable, you are taking the robber baron’s side.  This is more an Industrial Age problem.  The US was making strides against it, but the Republican united the elite’s cash with the racist’s vote.  The unraveling was a revisit of giving runaway influence to the elite class with the aid of the racist vote.

Now this view is different from Democrats are socialists and Republicans fascists.  The communists parties were essentially elites, ruling for their position not the people, caring mostly about maintaining power.  Major powers are not waging war against other major powers these days.  World War II was enough.  Bad things happen given modern weapons and the ability to fight proxy wars.  As a result those perspectives are badly flawed.

This does not mean we should try to contain any modern wannabe Attlla, Genghis, Napoleon or Hitler.  This does not mean we shouldn’t reduce the imbalance of wealth.

All of which does not make me like Bush 'war for oil' 43, Trump 'drain the swamp' 45 or the Republicans.

This crisis seems to be ending the alliance between the elites and the racists, making it no longer dominant.  It makes it harder to get involved in abuses either by military acquisition or construction of huge divisions of wealth.  There is reason to be optimistic.

But stupidity?  The elites and the racists are not stupid.  They have goals, even if these objectives are not constructive to the culture as a whole.  It is a mistake to allow them to justify themselves by creating an alternate fantasy reality which justifies their dated, misguided and sometimes downright evil aims.  But I am less inclined to believe they believe their justifications.

The big lesson learned is not to allow a sizable portion of the population indulge in such evil fantasies.  Fact checking must become a central part of the culture.
(10-23-2020, 02:14 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-23-2020, 04:27 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]America has plenty of equivalents of "Beavis and Butthead", and considering that those types are Generation X and are largely in their forties and fifties, they still vote. They may now have been culled for self-destructive stupidity (think of the Darwin Awards that mock people who make catastrophic errors that kill themselves), but they never learned much. I can imagine "Beavis and Butthead" as Trump supporters because Trump supporters believe in one of the most hare-brained ideologies ever brought forth...  (More stuff pretty much true.)

Not so long ago, it became ritual to call all Democrats communist, and all Republicans fascist.  There is an element of truth to it, but I would not at all have difficulty telling the difference between Hitler’s or Stalin’s approach to things and what the US is doing.  This is not the 1930s and 1940s.

In the last election before Pearl Harbor, the difference between the Democratic and Republican platforms on foreign policy was practically nil. Of course, American politics were already showing one of the usual signs of a society heading into a 1T -- placidity. The KKK was on the fade except as a money-maker for its operators and the German-American Bund was already an object of disgrace. American political sentiment was already becoming hostile to the Axis powers with every act of fascist aggression. An isolationist like Arthur Vandenburg, a Dutch-American, became hostile to the Third Reich about when the land of his ancestors (and many of his constituents in the Grand Rapids area) came under Nazi rule and a brutal occupation. American politics sometimes work that way.


Quote:Looking at it from a different slant, you can see it as dominance of policy by a particular class.  With rulers like Atilla, Napoleon and Hitler taking charge, the policy was tribal, aggressive, and territory oriented.  The more land one controlled, the more powerful one was.  This was very true in the Agricultural Age and became less true as the Industrial Age progressed.

The foundation of Trump's power, such as it is, was real estate. His real estate, unlike that of the feudal lords (the biggest of which in most countries was the all-powerful reigning monarch) is not the lucrative agricultural land on which peasants are helpless, compelled to toil for bare survival and nothing more than the promise of pie-in-the-sky as a reward for suffering without rebellion and facing horrible means of elimination if they ever did challenge their roles... but instead urban real estate. Urban real estate that people must live in after bidding up rents just to have the opportunity to live where the opportunities are may be even more lucrative now than agricultural land ever was. People paying $4000 a month for real estate so that they can live where they make $5000 a month after taxes are anything but wealthy.

The nature of power in America is still real estate as it was with the great landed magnates of medieval times. The power is now with urban real estate.   


Quote:With destructive weapons such as the machine gun and the nuke, with defensive alliances and proxy wars becoming better established, it became harder to profit from war.  This is not to say people will still try.  If you look at Bush 43’s Middle Eastern efforts as colonial imperialism revisited, as a war for oil, no matter how many noble excuses he came to use in public, it is still a thing that is tried.  If you do, you are apt to fail. More and more the elites and the leaders are not apt to try.  There are more cost effective rackets.

Dubya was not going to nuke Iraqi oil fields. He wanted to turn them over to such an entity as Exxon-Mobil, but that oil would be worthless if it "glowed". Exxon may have had the advertising slogan "Put a tiger in your tank" -- but radioactive gasoline would put something even more dangerous than a tiger (radioactivity) in the passenger compartment.

It may be cynical on my part, but if the real source of economic power behind politics should be urban real estate, then wars of the future might be over who owns the rental properties in places like Seoul, Tokyo, London, Paris, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and New York City. Nuking a giant city means that urban real estate becomes worthless. Land would still be valuable in a country like Hungary if Austrian landlords replaced Turkish landlords. The people waxing fat would be Austrian; such would be the change.   



Quote:There is a second class struggle where the robber barons attempt to keep wealth at the expense of the people.  The most visible indication is an extreme division of wealth.  If you are trying to cut benefits, limit the power of unions and ship jobs overseas where it is more profitable, you are taking the robber baron’s side.  This is more an Industrial Age problem.  The US was making strides against it, but the Republican united the elite’s cash with the racist’s vote.  The unraveling was a revisit of giving runaway influence to the elite class with the aid of the racist vote.

One of the biggest pressure groups in America is the National Right-to-Work Committee, which exists for the purpose of eviscerating labor unions so that workers are at the mercy of executives who can exploit the bargaining weaknesses of workers to drive wages down to starvation levels, or at least to the point at which Americans do not see Marxism-Leninism as deliverance from oppression in the wake of some economic meltdown or military debacle. The objective of our economic elites is a plutocracy in which those with the wealth and power compel the responsibility of the common man to serve people devoid of any responsibility except to themselves. 

One of the few areas in which I agree with Marxists is their explanation of racism: it is an effort to divide the working class into tribes willing to immiserate each other for the benefit of rapacious plutocrats. It is telling that much of the Civil Rights movement had the support of Big Labor. Do you remember Viola Liuzzo, assassinated by the KKK in Alabama? Her husband was a union official. 

Dignity for all of Humanity is rightly an indivisible objective for all people of good will.  


Quote:Now this view is different from Democrats are socialists and Republicans fascists.  The communists parties were essentially elites, ruling for their position not the people, caring mostly about maintaining power.  Major powers are not waging war against other major powers these days.  World War II was enough.  Bad things happen given modern weapons and the ability to fight proxy wars.  As a result those perspectives are badly flawed.

Some Democrats are socialists (if not Marxist-Leninists) and some Republicans are fascists (if not Nazis).  Marx had the delusion that ownership was the cause of economic inequality; he did not quite see the harm that bureaucratic power could do. The State might own the property, but whoever administers the property can control who gets what opportunity . The Soviet nomenklatura was all for merit-based authority when they had newly achieved power. Once it was time to establish careers for their children, the retiring Bolsheviks did not want their kids to have to become factory workers or collective farmers. 

It is no better here with America's executive elites. They certainly don't want their kids to become factory workers, store clerks, or farm laborers as a system of pure merit would mandate. Power can arise from ownership or position, and those often go together. So it has been since shamans decided the right time to goon the hunt.


Quote:...This crisis seems to be ending the alliance between the elites and the racists, making it no longer dominant.  It makes it harder to get involved in abuses either by military acquisition or construction of huge divisions of wealth.  There is reason to be optimistic.

The racists have shown how dangerous they are. They are running into America's model minorities who have enough political savvy to appeal to people not in the economic elites. The model minorities have an inordinate level of intellectual prowess, which one needs if one is in competition with the entrenched, largely-white elites. 

Ideas are precious. Know well: white people can be just as oppressed as any minorities, especially if they live in the economically-nuked places like a dreary area from Portsmouth, Ohio to Huntington, West Virginia. Thin also of Flint, Michigan and Lima, Ohio.   

Quote:But stupidity?  The elites and the racists are not stupid.  They have goals, even if these objectives are not constructive to the culture as a whole.  It is a mistake to allow them to justify themselves by creating an alternate fantasy reality which justifies their dated, misguided and sometimes downright evil aims.  But I am less inclined to believe they believe their justifications.

The economic elites may not be stupid in the sense that they act like "Beavis and Butthead", taking a ride in a clothes dryer for the thrill of it (Do not try this at home! It will kill you!), but they can go too far with rapaciousness and economic sadism. They can demand too much in a time when things fall apart; when that happens they will be among the first to end up in front of a wall and facing "revolutionary justice" from a firing squad full of soldiers from the victorious revolutionaries. This said, it is best for all of us that we go nowhere near that possibility.

Quote:The big lesson learned is not to allow a sizable portion of the population indulge in such evil fantasies.  Fact checking must become a central part of the culture.

Ideally the elites recognize that evil fantasies are impossible, unsupportable, or ultimately self-destructive. Good laws can prevent such.
(10-24-2020, 04:44 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]In the last election before Pearl Harbor, the difference between the Democratic and Republican platforms on foreign policy was practically nil. Of course, American politics were already showing one of the usual signs of a society heading into a 1T -- placidity.

Nitpick:  I would suggest that we had a double crisis in the 1930s and 1940s.  In the election before Pearl Harbor, isolationism was already very much fading, but it was once strong at the beginning of the crisis.

(10-24-2020, 04:44 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]The foundation of Trump's power, such as it is, was real estate.

The point is that the military leaders, the landowners, the robber barons, the slave owners, all represented a wealthy or dominating class.  At various times, each was problematic in their greed, though at times one group seeking to wrest power from another may have advanced something that needed to be advanced.  Mostly, at one time you could forgive the Robber Barons for allying with abolitionists and advancing the industrial revolution.  You could also forgive the various defensive alliances that contained aggressive military leaders such as Napoleon, Hitler or Bush 43.

With each crisis, one or another aspect of these classes fade.  The progress is visible.  Pretending that the progress is not visible, that you cannot tell the difference between, say, Hitler and Trump, is just wrongheaded blindness.
(10-24-2020, 07:22 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-24-2020, 04:44 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]In the last election before Pearl Harbor, the difference between the Democratic and Republican platforms on foreign policy was practically nil. Of course, American politics were already showing one of the usual signs of a society heading into a 1T -- placidity.

Nitpick:  I would suggest that we had a double crisis in the 1930s and 1940s.  In the election before Pearl Harbor, isolationism was already very much fading, but it was once strong at the beginning of the crisis.

(10-24-2020, 04:44 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]The foundation of Trump's power, such as it is, was real estate.

The point is that the military leaders, the landowners, the robber barons, the slave owners, all represented a wealthy or dominating class.  At various times, each was problematic in their greed, though at times one group seeking to wrest power from another may have advanced something that needed to be advanced.  Mostly, at one time you could forgive the Robber Barons for allying with abolitionists and advancing the industrial revolution.  You could also forgive the various defensive alliances that contained aggressive military leaders such as Napoleon, Hitler or Bush 43.

With each crisis, one or another aspect of these classes fade.  The progress is visible.  Pretending that the progress is not visible, that you cannot tell the difference between, say, Hitler and Trump, is just wrongheaded blindness.


I don't confuse Trump with Hitler. I see Trump more like America's Milosevic, and I would not be surprised that much if Trump endured much the same fate as Milosevic. I see an inexcusable body count, and Milosevic was tried and convicted for that. Obviously the United States is not  Yugoslavia... yet. Trump acts much like one of the despotic leaders from the time when agricultural  land was the foundation of power, and despotic kings started wars with other such kings over tiny affronts. Urban real estate involving rapacious landlords with the ability to extract income from tenants just as feudal landlords could extract labor could be even more effective in serving as a basis for a New Feudalism in economics and politics. We will need a working democracy to squelch such power.

Trump at the least is not a military aggressor. He has not yet planned 'liberations' of Cuba or Venezuela (as if he would be good at it [/snark]). Castro and Chavez had more to fear from Obama in the event that either did something incredibly stupid.
John, if we go back through Crisis Wars for the Anglosphere, we have WWII in 1940, the Civil War in 1860, the American Revolution in 1776, and the Glorious Revolution in 1688.

What about the cycle before that?  Did the Union of Crowns in James I & VI count as or supplant a Crisis War?

The reason I ask is because it seems to me that part of the buildup to each Crisis War is accumulation of inequality over the preceding cycle.  This can be seen from economic statistics currently and before WWII, and there are indications in concentration of northern industry and southern plantations before the Civil War.  The Revolutionary War was fought over economic control by British elites, and Elizabeth I was funding her government with royal monopolies just before the union of crowns, suggesting growing economic concentration.

By this theory, the Crisis War serves to relieve economic concentration by destroying the power of a substantial portion of the elites, such as the southern plantation owners in the Civil War.  However, it seems possible in unusual circumstances that economic concentration could also be relieved through a sudden expansion of opportunity, such as the colonization of America around the time of the Union of Crowns.

Thoughts?  Was there a Crisis around 1600, and what served as the Crisis War?
I personally put the English Civil War as a crisis war, and the Glorious Revolution more an awakening.  There was just much more fighting in the English Civil War.  The English Civil War is considered part of the Cousin's Wars sequence, the American Revolution and American Civil War being the other two.  It set the base for the difference between the red rural racist faction and the blue urban inclusive faction that lingers to this day.
** 26-Oct-2020 World View: Stock market selloff from Wuhan Coronavirus surge

There's a major selloff going on in the stock market today,
with the Dow down around 700 points at this moment.

Analysts are blaming it on the major surge in coronavirus cases in
several countries in Europe, resulting in new lockdowns and economic
restrictions that will hurt the economies of several countries.
There's also a surge going on in the United States, though not as
great, but there are concerns that it will force lockdowns here as
well. Nonetheless, a lot of people are bracing for a possible huge
surge in Wuhan Coronavirus this winter, with the situation worsened by
the spread of the ordinary seasonal flu.

In the meantime, analysts are pointing out that the same surge is not
occurring in the Asian countries -- China, Taiwan, or South Korea.
This continues to be a subject of much debate about the relative
advantages and disadvantages of Western democracies versus Chinese
dictatorships.
** 26-Oct-2020 World View: English crisis wars

(10-24-2020, 02:33 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]> John, if we go back through Crisis Wars for the Anglosphere, we
> have WWII in 1940, the Civil War in 1860, the American Revolution
> in 1776, and the Glorious Revolution in 1688.

> What about the cycle before that? Did the Union of Crowns in
> James I & VI count as or supplant a Crisis War?

> The reason I ask is because it seems to me that part of the
> buildup to each Crisis War is accumulation of inequality over the
> preceding cycle. This can be seen from economic statistics
> currently and before WWII, and there are indications in
> concentration of northern industry and southern plantations before
> the Civil War. The Revolutionary War was fought over economic
> control by British elites, and Elizabeth I was funding her
> government with royal monopolies just before the union of crowns,
> suggesting growing economic concentration.

> By this theory, the Crisis War serves to relieve economic
> concentration by destroying the power of a substantial portion of
> the elites, such as the southern plantation owners in the Civil
> War. However, it seems possible in unusual circumstances that
> economic concentration could also be relieved through a sudden
> expansion of opportunity, such as the colonization of America
> around the time of the Union of Crowns.

> Thoughts? Was there a Crisis around 1600, and what served as the
> Crisis War?

England's crisis war was the attack of the 'Invicible' Spanish Armada
in 1588.

This led to an Awakening era in England in the 1600s decade, at which
time the King James Bible was created. After that, the next crisis
war was the English Civil War, following by an Awakening era which
climaxed in 1689 with the Glorious Revolution, which was a "velvet
coup" or "bloodless revolution," of a kind that often occur as an
Awakening era climax. (The resignation of Richard Nixon is another
example.) England's next crisis war was the War of the Spanish
Succession, climaxing in 1709 with the disastrous Battle of
Malplaquet.

I summarized the English timeline in my article on 2011 on the
King James Bible:

** 3-Jan-11 News -- Britain celebrates the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e110103



However, keep in mind that the there was a split in the timelines
between the English and the Pilgrims who went to the Netherlands and
then to America. They were no longer in an Awakening era. For them,
the trip to America was like at crisis war, so they went through
a "first turning reset," came to America in a Recovery Era. Their
next crisis war was King Philip's war in the 1670s. I wrote
about all of this in the following article:

** 24-Nov-16 World View -- How the First Thanksgiving led to American independence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e161124



America's Revolutionary War was a crisis war for the colonists, but a
non-crisis war for the English.
(10-26-2020, 10:37 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]In the meantime, analysts are pointing out that the same surge is not occurring in the Asian countries -- China, Taiwan, or South Korea. This continues to be a subject of much debate about the relative advantages and disadvantages of Western democracies versus Chinese dictatorships.

Not just Chinese dictatorship, but any autocracy. They can easily mandate precautions, where many democracies have populations which do not take them as seriously. In many turnings you might call ignoring the government freedom and celebrate the difference from autocracies, but there is something to be said for the crisis attitude of strong effective government focusing on the problem and people willingly sacrificing for the common good. The US at least is slow in shifting from unraveling selfishness to the crisis mind set.
(10-26-2020, 11:11 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]This led to an Awakening era in England in the 1600s decade, at which time the King James Bible was created.  After that, the next crisis war was the English Civil War, following by an Awakening era which climaxed in 1689 with the Glorious Revolution, which was a "velvet coup" or "bloodless revolution," of a kind that often occur as an Awakening era climax.

I can pretty much agree with John"s sequence.
** 26-Oct-2020 World View: Cancel culture

(10-26-2020, 11:11 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]> This led to an Awakening era in England in the 1600s decade, at
> which time the King James Bible was created. After that, the next
> crisis war was the English Civil War, following by an Awakening
> era which climaxed in 1689 with the Glorious Revolution, which was
> a "velvet coup" or "bloodless revolution," of a kind that often
> occur as an Awakening era climax.

(10-26-2020, 07:52 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]> I can pretty much agree with John"s sequence.

Aren't you afraid of being canceled?
(10-26-2020, 08:16 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]Aren't you afraid of being canceled?

Not really. While I had a tiff with the moderator here a while ago, he seems to err on the side of letting people say what they want, even if they say it with a surplus of obscenities. Not the problem here.
** 27-Oct-2020 World View: Anti-lockdown riots in Europe as coronavirus spikes in many countries

[Image: NINTCHDBPICT000616745027.jpg]
  • Protesters in Milan lit colored flares in the streets Credit:
    BackGrid


Earlier this year in March, there was a certain (shall we say)
smugness among European officials because they were going to nip the
Wuhan Coronavirus in the bud by imposing quick and effective
lockdowns. These lockdowns really harmed the European economies, but
as the number of virus infections seemed to level off and decrease,
the European officials began to declare "Mission accomplished!", and
they began opening up their economies again, much to the relief of
starving business owners and people who had lost their jobs.

So many European officials have been shocked this month by a new
surge in virus cases, sometimes to the levels last seen in March.
And the people in Europe are also shocked because they were finally
working again, but are now potentially facing new lockdowns and
unemployment again.

In Italy, by early summer, new virus caseloads had dropped to as low
as 200 per day, and almost all of Italy's lockdowns were lifted.
However, new cases have again increased to tens of thousands per week.

In Italy, new restrictions have closed cinemas, gyms and pools.
Restaurants have to close by 6 pm, even though most don't start
to serve dinner until 8 pm.

This has resulted in violent protests in Italy and Spain. The
protests are being blamed on far right agitators.

The following is completely speculative, but it's a question that must
be asked: Speculatively, is the Wuhan Coronavirus triggering a
resurgence of far right riots similar to what happened in the 1930s,
leading to the rise of the Nazis? It will be months before we can
answer that speculative question.

In the United States, the number of daily new cases has also risen to
new nigh, though not has high as in Europe, and there were violent
left-wing riots in Philadelphia last night.

---- Source:
-- BURNING RAGE Italy and Spain riots erupt over coronavirus curfew
with petrol bombs thrown at cops and stores ransacked
https://www.the-sun.com/news/1695993/ita...ransacked/
(The Sun, London, 27-Oct-2020)
I suspect the protests in Philly were more related to the black mentally disturbed guy shot by the cops there.  With the legislature in Republican hands, I suppose that isn’t as clear as it ought to be.

Edit:  CNN is attributing the riots to police violence.

The economy cannot be fully restarted until the bug is beat.  The pattern in many places is to limit luxury events first, essential labor last, and try to be smart between.  Some are disregarding the limits, and as a result the efforts aren’t working in places.  The bug is of course winning.  Stupidity is loosing.

This is really a different problem than the invasions of World War II, but the people who insist on luxuries will prolong the anguish for their cultures.
** 28-Oct-2020 World View: Right Wing

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I wouldn't call protesting against any of this "right wing"

There's a distinction between Europe and America. In America, the
violence is by left-wing antifa-blm fascists. In Europe, it makes
sense to describe the violence as "right wing," based on Europe's Nazi
and Fascist history.

However, I like to point out that in some branches of mathematics, the
value of plus infinity is equal to the value of minus infinity.
Similarly, extreme left fascist violence and extreme right fascist
violence are equal.
(10-28-2020, 10:19 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]
Cool Breeze Wrote:I wouldn't call protesting against any of this "right wing"

There's a distinction between Europe and America.  In America, the violence is by left-wing antifa-blm fascists.  In Europe, it makes sense to describe the violence as "right wing," based on Europe's Nazi and Fascist history.

I agree there are differences between Europe and America.  We held lynchings and shoot individuals.  They hold genocidal wars and  force mass migrations of populations.  The conservative here use terrorist organizations and policemen, while using the military is common in Europe.

Still, I would suggest there has been right wing violence in America.  Trump used the military and his secret police against the local government's wishes to prevent protest guaranteed by the First Amendment.  The proud boys among other have sent people into black controlled areas and instigated violence.  The conflict between the KKK,  Neo Nazi, Antifa and lately the Proud Boys 'militia' and nearly the Wolverine Watchman is between elements of both wings, which deserve equal blame.

It is typically partisan of you to emphasize leftist violence, and ignore that of the right.

None of these even begin to approach the invasions of World War II.  Only the right's ignoring of COVID even begins to approach the same number of deaths.

Is ignoring COVID and the crisis tendency to sacrifice for the common good a right wing tendency in Europe as well?  It seems to have become quite partisan in America.