Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

The whole climate change debate exists simply due to the boomer globalists desire to control humans and boomers need to deflect from the fact that they tyrannically excluded gen-x from control over economic, foreign and military policy; the REAL issues. Not this boomer globalists "climate change" non-issues.

*** 24-Apr-17 World View -- Kenya's herders attack well-known conservationist, stoking tribal tensions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kenya's herders attack well-known conservationist, stoking tribal tensions
  
• Battle between Kenya's farmers and herders morphs into tribal conflict
  

****
**** Kenya's herders attack well-known conservationist, stoking tribal tensions
****


Kuki Gallmann

Well-known Italian conservationist Kuki Gallmann, 73, was shot in
the stomach on Sunday by herders who invaded her Gallmann Laikipia
Nature Conservancy in Laikipia county in Kenya's Rift Valley.
Gallmann was airlifted to Nairobi for treatment.

Hours later on the same day, a Kenya police reservists was shot and
seriously injured by herders at the Sosian Ranch, also in Laikipia
country. In early March, Tristan Voorspuy, a British citizen and
former British army officer, was ambushed by herders and shot dead.

Ms. Gallmann's Laikipia Nature Conservancy has been under attack by
herders off and on for months. Last month, cattle herders burned down
her lodge. The lodge is s frequented mainly by European tourists, who
can pay more than $650 a night to stay. However, no visitors were
present when the lodge was burned down.

On Sunday, Ms. Gallmann was patrolling her ranch when she was ambushed
and shot near her home. Security officers shot some of the
herders and captured them.

The big picture, that I've described many times in Central African
Republic, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America
in the 1800s, is that this is part of a classic and recurring battle
between herders and farmers. The farmers accuse the herders of
letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the
farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers
put up fences, then the herders knock them down. Daily Nation (Kenya) and NPR and Citizen TV (Kenya)

Related Articles

• Herders invade ranches in Kenya, ambush and kill British ranch owner (07-Mar-2017)
  

****
**** Battle between Kenya's farmers and herders morphs into tribal conflict
****

Early in 2008, there was a period of extremely bloody inter-tribal
violence in Kenya. The worst atrocity occurred when 30 people died in
a fire. Dozens of people had gone to the church to escape increasing
violence, when a youthful gang set the church on fire, trapping people
inside.

The violence was described as "ethnic cleansing." The Kalenjins,
whose nomadic lifestyle was typical of herders, were "cleansing" a
region of a different tribe, the Kikuyus, who were mostly farmers,
either killing the Kikuyus or forcing them to leave the region. The
violence was triggered when Mwai Kibaki, the leader of the Kikuyu
tribe, was elected president of Kenya in December 2007.

Today's renewed violence in and around the Rift Valley is also heavily
tied into politics, especially with another election scheduled for
August. President Uhuru Kenyatta is from the market-dominant Kikuyu
tribe, while the opposition Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD),
is led by Raila Odinga of the marginalized Luo tribe, which is an
offshoot of the Kalenjins.

Dating back to British colonial times, the Kikuyu tribe has been
market-dominant, and the Kikuyus, as well as Europeans like Gallmann,
owned large tracts of land for farming and conservancy. As the
population of Kalenjins has grown, the population of their cattle and
other livestock has grown as well. So it was inevitable that sooner
or later a clash would occur.

But farmers and land owners are claiming that politicians from the
Kalenjins and other nomadic tribes are actually inciting violence by
the herders. According to Martin Evans, chairman of the Laikipia
Farmers' Association:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It started a year ago. At the time it started, there
> was plenty of rain, it was nothing to do with lack of grass at
> that time so yes, I think it's definitely being pushed by
> politicians."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Farmers are accusing politicians and police of being cattle owners who
stand to gain from the attacks. According to an NPR analyst:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"You have nomadic herders who are moving into private
> wildlife conservancies with thousands of heads of cattle. And in
> response, the Kenyan government launched a military-style
> operation to push the herders out. But what we've seen is an
> escalation of violence. Police have killed lots of cows. And the
> herders have responded by burning tourist lodges on the
> properties."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In the past, there was a friendly relationship between herders and
farmers. Farmers would allow herders with small herds to graze on
their conservancies. But in the past year, these small herds have
turned into thousands of heads of cattle, and farms are being
attacked, not by cattle, but by human invaders. After last month's
attack on Ms. Gallmann's property, nearly 400 herders were arrested
for crimes unrelated to grazing.

Politicians who incite tribal violence are really playing with fire.
The current battles between herders and farmers is reviving many of
the tribal hatreds that were present during the 2008 violence

The 2008 violence was so bad that many analysts feared that it would
spread into a major war. As I wrote at the time, that was very
unlikely to happen. Kenya's last generational crisis war was the
"Mau-Mau Rebellion." Britain had been exerting a fairly heavy hand as
a colonial power, starting from the 1850s. An independence movement
began in earnest in the late 1940s, leading to the generational crisis
civil war that began in 1952 and climaxed in 1956.

In 2008, only 52 years had passed since the climax of the previous
generational crisis war. Generational Dynamics analysis of hundreds
of wars in all places throughout history shows that a new crisis war
very rarely begins until at least 58 years had passed since the climax
of the previous crisis war. That's because until that time, there are
still survivors of the previous crisis war in power, and they exert
influence and power to prevent a new crisis war from occurring. But
after 58 years or more have passed, the survivors no longer had power,
and younger generations with no fear of war take over.

So in 2008, a bloody spurt of tribal violence flared, but it fizzled
fairly quickly because the time was not yet ripe.

That was 2008. Today, Kenya is in a generational Crisis era, 61 years
past the climax of the preceding crisis war, so few of the survivors
of that war are still around. So when tribal violence begins in Kenya
today, there's a very real possibility that it could spiral into a
full-scale generational crisis war, such as happened in Rwanda in
1994, or is happening today in the Central African Republic.

With a new election approaching in August, and with politicians
inciting herders to violence, Kenya is in real danger of having a
major new tribal war. The Star (Kenya 20-Jan-2017) and NPR (3-Apr) and Telegraph (London 31-Mar) and UPenn - Kenya ethnic groups

Related Articles

• Kenya protests take an increasingly dangerous turn (08-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Increasing violence in Kenya revives fears of tribal war (07-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Ethnic revenge massacre in Kenya kills 41 (22-Dec-2012)
  
  
• Post-election massacre in Kenya raises concerns of tribal war (02-Jan-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Kuki Gallmann,
Laikipia Nature Conservancy, Laikipia county, Rift Valley,
Tristan Voorspuy, Sosian Ranch, Mwai Kibaki,
Kikuyus, Kalenjins, Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, Luos,
Coalition for Reform and Democracy, CORD, Martin Evans

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(04-24-2017, 10:34 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]Want to reduce C02 emissions? Step 1, don't buy anything "Made in China."

Step 1, don't buy an SUV.

*** 25-Apr-17 World View -- In Pakistan, you may murder anyone with impunity by accusing him of blasphemy first

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In Pakistan, you may murder anyone with impunity by accusing him of blasphemy first
  
• Even Pakistan is shocked by three blasphemy murders in 11 days
  

****
**** In Pakistan, you may murder anyone with impunity by accusing him of blasphemy first
****


Mashal Khan, lynched and killed by his college roommates after they falsely accused him of blasphemy (Facebook photo)

In Pakistan, accusing someone of defiling Islam or the Prophet
Mohammed, even if the accusations are 100% false, is a free ticket to
murder someone with impunity.

Blasphemy has long been treated as a crime in many countries,
including Christian countries, although rarely enforced. Many
countries have repealed their blasphemy laws.

In Pakistan, blasphemy laws were first codified by the British
colonial rulers in 1860, and expanded in 1927. Pakistan inherited
these laws after Partition in 1947 created the country. Between 1947
and 1985, there were only 14 known legal cases of blasphemy. But in
1986, Pakistan broadened the blasphemy laws and made it a capital
offense. Since that year, over 4,000 cases of blasphemy have been
registered. Since 1990, there have been at least 66 murders over
unproven allegations of blasphemy.

The law, as it was passed in 1992, said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Whoever by words, either spoken or written, or by
> visible representation or by any imputation, innuendo, or
> insinuation, directly or indirectly, defiles the sacred name of
> the Holy Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) shall be punished
> with death, or imprisonment for life, and shall also be liable to
> fine."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So anyone accused of blasphemy can be jailed, tortured and executed.
There is apparently no need for blasphemy accusers to provide proof,
and therefore someone accused of blasphemy has no defense. Analysts
claim that blasphemy laws are most often used against Christians, Shia
Muslims, and other non-Sunni Muslim sects such as the Ahmadis.

Prior to 2011, there were many calls to reform the blasphemy laws.
But in 2011, Salam Taseer, the governor of Punjab province, tried to
reform the blasphemy laws, and was shot dead by his own bodyguard.
For years the murderer was not prosecuted, but was actually treated as
a hero by other politicians and lawyers for having killed a blasphemer
-- using the twisted logic that calling for reform of the blasphemy
laws is itself an act of blasphemy worthy of instant murder.

Since then, politicians in fear of their lives have refrained from
calling for any reforms to the blasphemy laws, while judges and
lawyers are afraid to defend accused blasphemers, even when there's no
evidence. The result is that blasphemy charges are freely used for
personal disputes, and even allow a murder with impunity. BBC (6-Nov-2014) and Christians In Pakistan and Asia and Reuters (20-Apr)

****
**** Even Pakistan is shocked by three blasphemy murders in 11 days
****

In recent years, I've reported on dozens of terror attacks by Pakistan
terror groups on Pakistan civilians. These most often target Shia
Muslims, and a single terror attack might kill dozens or even
hundreds of people, including women and children.

If terror attacks are used for mass slaughter, then killing based on
the blasphemy laws can be thought of as terror attacks on an
individual basis. If you don't like your next door neighbor, you
probably can't kill him with a bomb, but you can shoot him dead after
accusing him of blasphemy. And if he's a Shia Muslim or Christian,
there'll usually be no punishment.

However, there have been a sudden rash of the blasphemy killings, with
three of them in the 11 days, causing the normally unshockable people
in the Pakistani public to actually be shocked.

On April 13, college student Mashal Khan was accused of blasphemy by
his roommates in a hostel where they were all living. The mob of
roommates brutally lynched Mashal Khan, beating him before shooting
him in the head and chest. The mob then continued to beat his dead
body with sticks.

Apparently Mashal's crime was a tv interview where he complained about
the administration of the college he was attending, and called for
reduced college fees. Mashal's cousin wants to go to college, but his
father is telling him, "Don’t go to a university. They kill children
there."

Since then, two other blasphemy charges have turned into mob violence.
On April 19, three girls in their 20s wearing burqas shot dead Fazal
Abbas. Abbas had been accused of blasphemy in 2004, and had fled the
country to Denmark. He only returned to Pakistan recently to defend
himself against the blasphemy charges. He was out on bail when the
three girls killed him. One was quoted as saying, "we couldn’t kill
him at the time [2004] because we were too young then."

On April 21, Rashid Ahmed was accused of uttering "blasphemous
remarks" during Friday prayers at a mosque in northwest Pakistan. The
worshippers in the mosque started beating the man. Six police
officers were injured trying to rescue him. The mosque's imam saved
him, and turned him over to police.

According to witnesses, Ahmed entered the mosque asking to make an
important announcement. He then declared himself a messiah and said
he would lead his followers to paradise. According to police, the man
is suffering from mental illness.

These brutal murders have shocked Pakistan, and there are renewed
calls to reform the blasphemy laws. But there's little hope of any
real reform. This is a country that pays terrorists to attack targets
in India and Afghanistan, and the same psychopathic vitriol that
permeates Pakistan's clerical establishment also protects the
blasphemy laws and particularly their use in freely killing Shia
Muslims and Christians. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Al Jazeera and Geo TV (Pakistan 18-Apr) and Express Tribune (Pakistan)

Related Articles

• Pakistan's bizarre blasphemy laws lead to death threats for son of slain governor (04-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician Salman Taseer is assassinated (05-Jan-2011)
  
  
• History of blasphemy laws in UK, Ireland and Pakistan (20-Sep-2012)
  
  
• Pakistan unexpectedly executes murderer of liberal politician Salman Taseer (01-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Thousands protest violently over execution of murderer of blasphemy reformer (28-Mar-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, blasphemy, Salam Taseer,
Mashal Khan, Fazal Abbas, Rashid Ahmed

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(04-24-2017, 10:05 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]*** 25-Apr-17 World View -- In Pakistan, you may murder anyone with impunity by accusing him of blasphemy first

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In Pakistan, you may murder anyone with impunity by accusing him of blasphemy first
  
• Even Pakistan is shocked by three blasphemy murders in 11 days
  

****
**** In Pakistan, you may murder anyone with impunity by accusing him of blasphemy first
****


Mashal Khan, lynched and killed by his college roommates after they falsely accused him of blasphemy (Facebook photo)

In Pakistan, accusing someone of defiling Islam or the Prophet
Mohammed, even if the accusations are 100% false, is a free ticket to
murder someone with impunity.

Blasphemy has long been treated as a crime in many countries,
including Christian countries, although rarely enforced.  Many
countries have repealed their blasphemy laws.


<snip>

And so.... lf this "Blasphemy" thing is real, and I'm not disputing this John, should the US just fucking pull out of the Mideast due to such fucking Medieval crap?  Look, I'm really getting short on this Muslim being "such fucking specialness".  I'd say if this is going on, then Trump is correct, just shut down this fucking importation of defective Muslims.  We, the US, don't need these ass wipe feeling superior types.  I have an excellent idea.  Let 'em rot in their collective global warming doom.  Tell them that Allah will make it all better.  
And... of course, I don't give a rat's ass what Assad does.   Let him just drop chemical/barrel bombs, wherever. Kill  'em all, I say.  US out of the Mideast, NOW!

(04-24-2017, 11:18 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 04:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 10:34 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]Want to reduce C02 emissions? Step 1, don't buy anything "Made in China."

Step 1, don't buy an SUV.

You must not have seen the graph up above.

The US, even with SUVs ... even with speed boats .... even with NASCAR ... is not the problem.

Rags has an even a most excellent ideas.

1. Step 1: XY_MOX_4AD: right?  Yes, don't buy shit made in China, because of the transport CO2, output, + China CO2 ignore shit due to cheap manufacturing of plastics.  I know this since I chucked Chinese cheap shit plastic Soda Steam / vs. US made steal Soda Stream apparatus .  So yes, don't buy crappola made in China -> breaks -> goes to landfill.

2. SUV$S.  Yup.  Any internal combustion engines are by default CO2 augmenters. If possible, use mass transit. For other shit made in China, well, their shit = cheap steel, cheap plastic. Short term gain vs. long term loss. Let's not forget those long assed supply chains. OK?

3. So... Use localized thrift shops to get the stuff ya need, OK?  Fuck globalism, fuck Walfart, fuck it all, man. Buy local, save local, man.

4. < Of course, Rags wants and desires the destruction of the "New World Order".  Buy local and put the fuck to the New World Order, OK?  Yeah, that's the ticket, man.  Burn, baby, burn.  I just love the smell of napalm in the morning.  Hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahah.  Weed, man, weed.  And... Fuck you DEA, fuck you NSA, fuck you, FBI, fuck you MIC.  So... what ya think , there, XY_MOX_4AD? Mayh the CIA/spooks be afraid, be very afraid, you cock suckers.  So, XY_*,  would ya like the CIA to bow before your cock and worship it?  I want the CIA to bow down and suck my cock.  I'll fill its mouth with a load of man juice.
It feels good, man. I'll be more than glad to share 10 cum shots to the CIA.

(04-24-2017, 11:18 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 04:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 10:34 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]Want to reduce C02 emissions? Step 1, don't buy anything "Made in China."

Step 1, don't buy an SUV.

You must not have seen the graph up above.

The US, even with SUVs ... even with speed boats .... even with NASCAR ... is not the problem.

If you want to help fix things in China too, the best thing to do is to buy Chinese solar cells to help drive that industry so that when prices come down enough for them to be affordable there, China can eventually replace a lot of fossil fuel electric generation with solar cells.

(04-25-2017, 10:33 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 11:18 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 04:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 10:34 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]Want to reduce C02 emissions? Step 1, don't buy anything "Made in China."

Step 1, don't buy an SUV.

You must not have seen the graph up above.

The US, even with SUVs ... even with speed boats .... even with NASCAR ... is not the problem.

If you want to help fix things in China too, the best thing to do is to buy Chinese solar cells to help drive that industry so that when prices come down enough for them to be affordable there, China can eventually replace a lot of fossil fuel electric generation with solar cells.

I'd prefer to buy US sourced solar cells. I don't know if Chinese stuff is even safe. Perhaps they use some toxic stuff , you know like that sulfur tainted dry wall, melamine tainted human and pet food, lead painted toys, etc.

(04-25-2017, 05:25 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2017, 04:12 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2017, 10:33 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 11:18 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 04:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]Step 1, don't buy an SUV.

You must not have seen the graph up above.

The US, even with SUVs ... even with speed boats .... even with NASCAR ... is not the problem.

If you want to help fix things in China too, the best thing to do is to buy Chinese solar cells to help drive that industry so that when prices come down enough for them to be affordable there, China can eventually replace a lot of fossil fuel electric generation with solar cells.

I'd prefer to buy US sourced solar cells. I don't know if Chinese stuff is even safe. Perhaps they use some toxic stuff , you know like that sulfur tainted dry wall, melamine tainted human and pet food, lead painted toys, etc.

Maybe some Purple Plague ... couple or three years after being deployed, power level goes down .... down .... down ....

?




Ohhh yeah, SCO sabotage, man.   So what ya think of the gray plague shown above?  

"Purple"... such a nice color and it involves one of favorite elements, gold. Yes, Rags loves gold for its true value. Yes, XY_MOX_4AD, Rags is quite like his Viking ancestors and has a very strong yen for gold. Gold, yes, the metal of royalty. The metal of true worth, instead of fiat money.

As for the vid, you have, OTOH, mercury, the metal of death, yes, death.  Mercury binds with sulfur in enzymes. Yes , that's what mercury does, binds to enzymes. That's why this element makes people stupid. The brain gets poisoned by mercury binding to sulfur enzymes in the brain. It's also a heavy metal. Lots of heavy metals bind to sulfur in enzymes. Yes, that's how heavy metals become poisons. They alter brain enzymes and , thusly ... make people stupid.  As for "making people stupid", there's lots of stuff besides heavy metals that do that. Tee Vee and its vapid radio wave emanations.  What a waste of bandwidth, those Tee Vee owners. Yes, they also make people stupid by draining a lot of brains of energy. <-  Now there's that power down you mentioned. Yes, TeeVee = huge power down.  If it keeps up, humans shall die as a species from getting stupid.


And... Are U thinking about this?

It's fucking purple, man.   :: Rags takes a toke :::  It's also a plague, man.





And... Are U old enough to remember this.




Oh the stuff my Boomer cousins tuned me into....  Hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahah.



:: Sesame Street :::

Today's color is purple.

Youtube is haunted, there, Xy_MOX_4AD.  Remember this?  Huh. Let me know. Rags is tuned into this, for example.





Yes, XY_MOX_4AD, Rags is coming up on the double nickel.  Rags shall be 55 on May, 3 , 2017.

(04-25-2017, 04:12 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2017, 10:33 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 11:18 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 04:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-24-2017, 10:34 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]Want to reduce C02 emissions? Step 1, don't buy anything "Made in China."

Step 1, don't buy an SUV.

You must not have seen the graph up above.

The US, even with SUVs ... even with speed boats .... even with NASCAR ... is not the problem.

If you want to help fix things in China too, the best thing to do is to buy Chinese solar cells to help drive that industry so that when prices come down enough for them to be affordable there, China can eventually replace a lot of fossil fuel electric generation with solar cells.

I'd prefer to buy US sourced solar cells. I don't know if Chinese stuff is even safe. Perhaps they use some toxic stuff , you know like that sulfur tainted dry wall, melamine tainted human and pet food, lead painted toys, etc.

What do you think they do, create poison electrons?

I remember looking into the toys.  It turned out there were more frequent problems with lead in US made toys; they just didn't make the news as much.

*** 26-Apr-17 World View -- Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq
  
• PKK conducts new terror attack in southeastern Turkey
  
• US State Dept. says that it's 'deeply concerned' about the Turkish airstrikes
  

****
**** Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq
****


Members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)

In Syria, Turkey's warplanes struck Kurdish militias known as the
People's Protection Units, or YPG, who are allies of the US-led
coalition fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh). The YPG said that Turkey's airstrikes killed 20 of its
fighters and wounded 18 others, and caused extensive damage to YPG
headquarters and nearby civilian property.

Although the US considers the YPG to be the most effective fighting
force on the group against ISIS, Turkey considers them to be an
extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK have been
conducting an anti-government insurgency in Turkey since 1978, and
have conducted numerous terror attacks on civilian targets in Turkey.

The YPG denounced the airstrikes as "treacherous," accusing Turkey of
undermining the fight against ISIS. "By this attack, Turkey is trying
to undermine the Raqqa operation, give ISIS time to reorganize and put
in danger lives of thousands of [people]."

In Iraq, Turkish warplanes struck Kurdish targets in the Qandil
mountains in northeastern Iraq and on Sinjar mountain in northern
Iraq. The PKK stronghold is in the Qandil mountains, and Turkey's
warplanes have been targeting that region for years.

The strikes on Sinjar mountain are a new development. According to
reports from Kurdish sources, one PKK fighter was killed, but the
airstrikes also killed five Peshmerga and wounded nine others.
Peshmerga are the Kurdish militias that are part of the effort to
expel ISIS from Mosul.

The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), which says that it is distinct
from the PKK, condemned the airstrikes on Sinjar mountain, but also
asked the PKK to leave the area.

The Iraqi parliament's deputy speaker denounced the airstrikes in
Sinjar, saying that they have no justification:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The air strikes will affect the relations between
> both countries and will spoil stability in the area while the
> Iraqi forces are launching operations against ISIS in
> Mosul."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

A military statement from Turkey said that the airstrikes hit
shelters, ammunition depots and key control centers, to prevent
infiltration of Kurdish rebels, weapons, ammunition and explosives
from those areas across the border into Turkey:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"To destroy these terror hubs which threaten the
> security, unity and integrity of our country and our nation and as
> part of our rights based on international law, airstrikes have
> been carried out ... and terrorist targets have been struck with
> success."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The statement said that dozens of militants were "neutralized."
AP and NRT TV (Kurdistan) and Deutsche Welle

****
**** PKK conducts new terror attack in southeastern Turkey
****

At least 10 Turkish soldiers were killed in two separate attacks the
PKK on Sunday, in the southeastern cities of Diyarbakir and Sirnak.

On Saturday, Turkey's military reported the death of 14 PKK fighters
in two separate offensives, also in southeastern Turkey. ARA News

Related Articles

• Istanbul Turkey New Year's terror attack compared to Paris and Orlando attacks (02-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Terror in Berlin and Ankara as Russia's ambassador to Turkey shot dead (20-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Bombing of Turkey's airport affects a swirl of diplomatic actions (29-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** US State Dept. says that it's 'deeply concerned' about the Turkish airstrikes
****

Turkey has long objected to the use of any Kurdish militias in the
fight against ISIS in either Syria or Iraq, and has taken its own
military action in Syria to block attempts by the Kurds to create an
independent Kurdish state of Rojava along the northern border of Syria
with Turkey.

However, this has brought the US and Turkey into sharp disagreement,
the Kurdish militias in Syria and Iraq have been extremely effective
in fighting ISIS, and indeed are thought to the most effective
fighting force against ISIS.

On Tuesday, US State Department spokesman Mark Toner expressed
deep concern over Turkey's airstrikes:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Now, turning to Turkey, and I think it was your last
> question, so we are very concerned – deeply concerned – that
> Turkey conducted airstrikes earlier today in northern Syria, as
> well as northern Iraq, without proper coordination either with the
> United States or the broader global coalition to defeat ISIS. And
> we’ve expressed those concerns to the Government of Turkey
> directly. These airstrikes were not approved by the coalition and
> led to the unfortunate loss of life of our partner forces in the
> fight against ISIS that includes members of the Kurdish
> Peshmerga. I would also note that the concerns – or rather note
> the concerns expressed by the Government of Iraq and reaffirm our
> view that military action in Iraq should respect Iraqi
> sovereignty.
>
> And just finally, given the very complex battle space in these
> areas, it’s vital that Turkey and all partners in the effort to
> defeat ISIS coordinate their actions as closely as possible as we
> work together to maintain pressure to destroy ISIS on the
> battlefield in order to ensure that we meet that goal but also
> that we ensure the safety of all coalition personnel who are
> operating in that – as I said, in that theater."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized for the death of
the Peshmerga fighters. He contradicted Toner by claiming that the US
had been informed of the airstrikes in advance, and said that the
airstrikes will continue:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We are obliged to take measures. We must take
> steps. We informed the US, Russia, northern Iraq and [Kurdish
> President Masoud] Barzani before we bombed PKK positions in
> Sinjar. We will not allow Sinjar to become a PKK base.
>
> Our operations in Sinjar and northern Syria will
> continue."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkey's airstrikes in Syria are becoming particularly dangerous.
There are now roughly three different sets of forces operating in
Syria: The Syrian regime + Russia, Turkey + the Free Syrian Army
comprised mainly of ethnic Syrian Turkmens, and the US-led coalition +
the Kurdish militia.

These three forces are currently united only because of the fight
against the common enemy, ISIS. But once ISIS has been expelled
from its stronghold Raqqa, then they may turn on each other. The
Kurdish YPG has already threatened revenge against Turkey for
Tuesday's airstrikes.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. State Dept.
and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and CNN

Related Articles

• Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converge on a major military confrontation in al-Bab (26-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq (25-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire (20-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Raqqa, Mosul, Turkey, Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Rojava, People's Protection Units, YPG,
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Mount Sinjar, Qantil Mountains,
Free Syrian Army, FSA, Russia, Mark Toner, Recep Tayyip Erdogan

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John J. Xenakis
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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(04-25-2017, 08:39 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]<snip>
I'd prefer to buy US sourced solar cells. I don't know if Chinese stuff is even safe. Perhaps they use some toxic stuff , you know like that sulfur tainted dry wall, melamine tainted human and pet food, lead painted toys, etc.

What do you think they do, create poison electrons?

I remember looking into the toys.  It turned out there were more frequent problems with lead in US made toys; they just didn't make the news as much.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadmium_telluride

Dunno about that Warren.  Cadmium telluride seems all the rage on US sourced solar cells.  Cadmium Chalcogenides are pretty non toxic 'cause the compounds are very stable, man.


compounds are safer. X = [O,S,Se,Te,Po,Lv]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chalcogenide

Like, I said, Chinese factories spew lots of coal/heavy metals/organic POPs than the US does due to regulations forbidding such emissions in the US,. I remember a zinc smelter close by, that shut down near by due to environmental regulations here in the US. Smelters if, left to their own devices will emit toxic metealoids like arsenic,selenium, tellurium, bismuth, antimony, etc. So ... yeah. it not poison electrons that happen , but poison metalloid  atoms, there, guy.   [N, P, As, Sb, Bi] can also be quite toxic as well.   So Warren, do you know the periodic  table, ?
....

I don't recall US toys having lead in them.  Here's the sequence for lead, enjoy.

[C, Si, Ge, Sn, Pb[   Pb = lead.   Warren, learn the periodic table, for it's the true key to chemistry. US companies don't give a rat's ass about you and me.  All they care about is profit is far as their eye can see.

*** 27-Apr-17 World View -- Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting
  
• The phrase 'Code of Conduct' is the new code word for appeasement
  

****
**** Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting
****


Rodrigo Duterte and Xi Jinping share a warm greeting and handshake (Reuters)

This week's meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) is generating controversy because the draft statement to be
issued makes no mention of China's militarization of the South China
Sea or the dramatic ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague declaring China's claims and activities
in the South China Sea to be illegal.

The person who is going easy on China is this meeting's rotating
chairman, who this year is Philippine's president Rodrigo R. Duterte.
In October of last year, Duterte went to Beijing and met with China's
president Xi Jingping. In exchange for receiving millions of dollars
in investments and loans from China, Duterte agreed to cancel some
agreements with the United States and to forget about China's illegal
activities in the South China Sea.

Last year's ASEAN statement emphasized the importance of
"non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all
activities, including land reclamation." But Duterte's watered-down
statement will drop references, or even allusions, to
China's construction of artificial islands and the military hardware
it has placed on them. Instead, the statement says:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We reaffirmed the importance of enhancing mutual
> trust and confidence, exercising self-restraint in the conduct of
> activities, avoiding actions that may further complicate the
> situation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Philippine people view the United States far more favorably
than they do China, and so Duterte's flip-flop on China has
never been particularly possible. Duterte's own
defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana has vocally expressed
criticisms of China's activities, especially as it seemed
that China plans to build another military base on the
critical Scarborough Shoal.

On Tuesday, the former foreign affairs Secretary Albert Del Rosario
raised 5 concerns about Duterte's appeasement policy:

• On shelving the PCA ruling, what would happen if we should
  pass the point of no return?
  
• What if the rules-based system were to collapse in our
  region?
  
• What if we were to squander the support of the responsible
  community of nations?
  
• As the island-building is complete, is the arbitration academic if
  China is able to operationalize its nine-dash line claim?
  
• As America is the promoter of the rule of law, what would happen
  if our alliance with the United States is weakened, rather than
  strengthened?

Of course Duterte has no answer to Rosario's questions. Rosario
says that the Philippines should take full advantage of
last year's PCA ruling, and make sure that international
law is upheld in the region. According to Rosario:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Philippine interests are best promoted when all
> states, of any size or power, adhere to the commonly agreed upon
> standards that govern countries’ rights and relationships.
> International law, in my view, is the great equalizer. Through it,
> a country of 100 million people is the equal of one that is more
> powerful, and that is more than ten times its size.
>
> As this year’s chair of ASEAN, the Philippines has a unique and an
> important opportunity to dwell on how we can work with our
> neighbors to ensure that this rules-based order succeeds. The
> purpose of our cooperation should go beyond maintaining friendly
> ties; we must also cooperate to ensure that we live in a
> neighborhood where countries follow the rules and uphold their
> commitments."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Duterte's proposed statement may yet be changed before it's officially
issued by ASEAN on Saturday. Other ASEAN members whose territories in
the South China Sea that China is confiscating include Malaysia,
Vietnam and Brunei. They may pressure Duterte to make a more
aggressive statement. However Cambodia, which also receives a great
deal of money from China, would fight such a move, and force a
compromise similar to Duterte's appeasement statement. Manila Times and Reuters and Rappler (Philippines)

Related Articles

• Philippines president Duterte orders military to occupy South China Sea islands (07-Apr-2017)
  
  
• China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal (19-Feb-2017)
  
  
• US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats (31-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** The phrase 'Code of Conduct' is the new code word for appeasement
****

There's a new code phrase used by people who want to appease China.
The phrase is "Code of Conduct" or CoC. The idea is to negotiate with
China to agree to a code of conduct in the South China Sea, so that
everyone can live in peace. It's totally laughable to believe that
China would agree to any code of conduct, or to follow any code of
conduct it agreed to, but calling for a CoC is the easy solution for
someone who doesn't want to confront China.

There's an obvious comparison to the United States relation with North
Korea. For decades, the US appeased North Korea, hoping that
appeasement could end its development of nuclear weapons. It hasn't
worked, as North Korea is now on the verge, within perhaps a couple of
years, of developing a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile that could
reach the United States.

The policy of appeasing North Korea has been a complete failure, and
now under president Donald Trump the policy is being reversed to be a
lot more confrontational.

Duterte's policy of appeasement toward China is not going to
work either. China is determined to continue with its heavy
militarization of the South China Sea and, perhaps within a couple
of years, will have the entire South China Sea under its military
control.

The US also has a policy of appeasement toward China. As regular
Generational Dynamics readers know, China has been aggressively
preparing for full-scale war with the United States for years.
They've developed one nuclear ballistic missile system after another,
and manufactured perhaps hundreds of those missiles, with no other
purpose than to destroy American cities, military bases and aircraft
carriers. These developments have been deliberately planned, and it's
clear that China plans to attack at a time of its own choosing. The
US has chosen to ignore this vast military buildup directed at us,
just as Duterte is ignoring China's military buildup in the South
China Sea.

Appeasement as a strategy doesn't work, and leads to war. North Korea
is developing is nuclear-tipped missile, China is continuing to
militarize the South China Sea and also to develop missile systems
targeting the United States, and in 1938 Britain's prime minister
Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Adolf Hitler didn't prevent World
War II.

The problem is that the opposite of appeasement also doesn't work, and
also leads to war, perhaps more quickly. If Neville Chamberlain had
declared war on Nazi Germany instead of declaring "peace in our time,"
then WW II would simply have occurred sooner. Donald Trump is
currently discovering that there's no credible way to prevent North
Korea's development of a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic
missile without a major war that would devastate South Korea. The
Philippines could do nothing to stop China's huge military buildup in
the South China Sea, so Rodrigo Duterte decided to make the best of it
by getting some money out of the situation. If you're going to die
anyway, you might as well get 30 pieces of silver first. And no one
even wants to think about some alternative to appeasement of China in
view of that country's evident plans for a preemptive attack on the
United States.

There's a halfway measure - sanctions, but that hasn't worked either
in the case of North Korea, which has survived enormous sanctions.

As with so many problems that I've written about over the years, these
problems have no solution. In each case, the rogue countries will
continue that path to full-scale war, and other countries will use
appeasement because there's no other way to proceed. Finally the war
begins, causing millions or billions of deaths, and it ends with an
international conference that issues a statement saying "Never again,"
but it always happens again. Inquirer (Manila) and Philippine Star

Related Articles

• Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
  
  
• South China Sea: China's list of supporters is found to be delusional (24-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Appeasement Conundrum: alternative to appeasing Hitler - North Korea, China? (10-Oct-2006)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
China, Xi Jinping, South China Sea, Code of Conduct, CoC,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Delfin Lorenzan, Albert Del Rosario, North Korea

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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(04-26-2017, 09:54 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]The problem is that the opposite of appeasement also doesn't work, and
also leads to war, perhaps more quickly.  If Neville Chamberlain had
declared war on Nazi Germany instead of declaring "peace in our time,"
then WW II would simply have occurred sooner. 


There's a halfway measure - sanctions.

Actually there would have been a German invasion of Czechoslovakia, it would have been followed by a coup in Germany that would have at least delayed the war until the mid-1940s or even prevented the war altogether (The German generals were not fully committed to Hitler until the victory over France in 1940). If Britain and France had simply invaded Germany from the west while the Germans were invading Poland in 1939, the Nazis would have been forced to capitulate because the majority of their forces had already been committed to the invasion of Poland.

If you fear North Korean capabilities, and especially if one regards North Korea as simply a vanguard for Russia and China, then attacking North Korea solves the problem by reestablishing global memory of US capabilities and force potential. The defeat of north korea will also deter both Russia and China by the fact that North Korea technically already is a nuclear power and its defeat would reestablish deterrence from both Russia and China.

Sanctions is just more status quo globalist nonsense. That is the policy we have been doing, given its poor results so far why would we even consider continuing this policy? That is also the policy favored by the globalists in the US government. We Just had an election in which globalism was a main issue in the election; the globalist candidate lost the election remember. So we would not continue Clintonist military and diplomatic doctrines.

(04-25-2017, 10:14 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]Chinese factories spew lots of coal/heavy metals/organic POPs than the US does due to regulations forbidding such emissions in the US,.

That stuff falls out of the atmosphere before it can get over here, though.  If they want to make different tradeoff regarding their local environment, that's up to them.

(04-27-2017, 11:43 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2017, 10:42 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2017, 10:14 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]Chinese factories spew lots of coal/heavy metals/organic POPs than the US does due to regulations forbidding such emissions in the US,.

That stuff falls out of the atmosphere before it can get over here, though.  If they want to make different tradeoff regarding their local environment, that's up to them.

Actually, it doesn't. The Asian Brown cloud (a mixture of particulate, aerosol and gaseous pollutants) makes it to the West Coast. Spectrometry was done on samples taken here and on across the flow all the way back to Asia. It was a smoking gun.

No wonder the people on the West Coast are crazy.

(04-27-2017, 11:43 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-26-2017, 10:42 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-25-2017, 10:14 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]Chinese factories spew lots of coal/heavy metals/organic POPs than the US does due to regulations forbidding such emissions in the US,.

That stuff falls out of the atmosphere before it can get over here, though.  If they want to make different tradeoff regarding their local environment, that's up to them.

Actually, it doesn't. The Asian Brown cloud (a mixture of particulate, aerosol and gaseous pollutants) makes it to the West Coast. Spectrometry was done on samples taken here and on across the flow all the way back to Asia. It was a smoking gun.

What makes you think I was including the West Coast in "over here"?

Seriously, though, trace transpacific amounts are irrelevant, given how much smog Los Angeles generates on its own.

*** 28-Apr-17 World View -- Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus
  
• Israeli analyst: A new war with Hezbollah might involve all of Lebanon
  

****
**** Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus
****


This fence marks the boundary between Syria and the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed in 1981 (EPA)

Syria's news agency SANA reported that Israel's warplanes struck a
military arms depot in Syria near Damascus. The arms depot is
believed to be run by Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is controlled by
Iran. The airstrikes took place before dawn on Thursday, and resulted
in massive explosions that could be seen and heard for miles.

Israel has taken no sides in the war in Syria, but has struck weapons
depots and convoys from time to time in the past when it believes that
the weapons are advanced and are intended for delivery to Hezbollah in
Lebanon to be used against Israel. The advanced weapons may include
precision rockets, advanced anti-aircraft missiles, surface-to-surface
missiles and surface-to-ship missiles.

Usually, Israel refuses to either confirm or deny that it was
responsible for any missile attack, but on Thursday, Israel's
intelligence minister Israel Katz made a statement that comes
very close to confirming that Israel was responsible:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I can confirm that the incident in Syria corresponds
> completely with Israel's policy to act to prevent Iran's smuggling
> of advanced weapons via Syria to Hezbollah in Iran. Naturally, I
> don't want to elaborate on this.
>
> The prime minister has said that whenever we receive intelligence
> that indicated an intention to transfer advanced weapons to
> Hezbollah, we will act."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova mildly condemned
the Israeli action, but suggested that they might be "justified":

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Gross violations of Syrian sovereignty, no matter how
> they are justified, are unacceptable. Moscow condemns acts of
> aggression against Syria."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The most serious incident of this kind occurred in mid-March, when an
Israeli attack on a weapons convoy traveling to Lebanon was destroyed
by Israeli warplanes. There was an unprecedented missile clash over Jordan
when Syrian Russian-made
S-200 ground to air missiles targeted the Israeli planes without
success, but were shot down over Jordan by Israel's Arrow 3
anti-missile defense system.

These Israeli airstrikes have been going on for years, with an
occasional diplomatic condemnation from Russia, like the mild
condemnation quoted above, but no military response, although Russia
could presumably attack Israel's warplanes with an advanced
anti-missile system. It's widely believed that Russia and Israel have
an agreement to allow these airstrikes since they have the purpose of
preventing a larger regional war between Hezbollah and Israel, which
would not be to Russia's liking. BBC and
AFP and SANA (Damascus)
and Jerusalem Post

Related Articles

• Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine (14-May-2016)
  
  
• Deep Saudi-Lebanon crisis widens the Mideast's sectarian fault line (10-Mar-2016)
  

****
**** Israeli analyst: A new war with Hezbollah might involve all of Lebanon
****

In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a war that was disastrous for
both sides, as it ended in stalemate after a great deal of mutual
destruction.

In an interview on the BBC, Giora Eiland, former head of the Israeli
National Security Council, discussed Israel's strategy with regard to
the Syria war and a possible future war with Hezbollah. He said that
the number one threat that Israel faces is not the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), especially since ISIS is
diminishing in power because of attacks on it in Syria. The number
one threat that Israel faces is a new war with Hezbollah (my
transcription):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that we have to understand something that is
> much more important than this kind of very delicate game, and this
> is what might happen maybe in this summer if the problems in Syria
> are not necessarily resolved but if Hezbollah, Iran, the Syrians
> and the Russians feel that they are are the winning side, and
> Hezbollah might begin to think about the next phase -- the next
> phase might be to find a reason to be in full confrontation with
> Israel, and I cannot exclude the possibility that Iran will push
> them to do something like this.
>
> And this is something that might bring the whole Middle East to be
> in a very different situation. And the main message is this:
> contrary to all previous times, when Israel and Hezbollah had some
> kind of direct confrontation between them, this time if a fire is
> launched from Lebanon against Israel, it will lead not only to
> confrontation with Hezbollah, but to a real confrontation or even
> a declared official war between Israel and Lebanon. And this is
> something that might change the regular stories of the Middle
> East, and I think that Israel might be taking such an approach,
> because the only way to end the next cycle of violence quickly is
> to attack Lebanon, and to threaten that the whole state of Lebanon
> might be devastated, and this might be the only to get the
> international community to intervene, and to stop the aggression.
> And this is a scenario that cannot be excluded. ...
>
> Number one threat for Israel is not ISIS but -- the threat of ISIS
> is diminishing because of the success of others. If Iran feels
> it's winning in Syria, it might take advantage of it and send some
> of its proxies to Lebanon and also the Golan Heights, and might
> encourage Hezbollah to open another confrontation with Israel. If
> Hezbollah decides to fight Israel, and since they have missiles
> that can cover all of Israel, and the number of missiles are tens
> of thousands, many of them are accurate weapons, then Israel might
> face a problem that we never faced in the past, and it might lead
> Israel to take some extreme measures."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

This analysis by Eiland is realistic, but is delusional in one area:
If there is a war between Israel and Hezbollah, with thousands of
Hezbollah missiles hitting Israeli targets, and it expands to "a
declared official war between Israel and Lebanon," then the
international community will not be able to end it.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. This is coming with 100%
certainty, irrespective of what Israel and Hezbollah do. AP and LA Times

Related Articles

• Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation (06-Dec-2015)
  
  
• How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hezbollah (23-Dec-2006)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran,
Israel Katz, Russia, Maria Zakharova, Jordan, Giora Eiland,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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Trump is going to repeal PDD 60, you lose globalist boomers.

*** 29-Apr-17 World View -- Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania'
  
• Brief generational history of Macedonia
  
• Heidelberg Conflict Barometer
  

****
**** Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania'
****


Protesters clash with police blocking the entrance to the parliament building in Skopje, Macedonia, on Thursday evening (AFP)

On Thursday evening, thousands of ethnic Macedonians surrounded
Macedonia's parliament building in the capital city Skopje, and then
stormed the building. The protests were triggered when an ethnic
Albanian was controversially elected to the post of parliament
speaker. The scene was calm by Friday morning, with reports
indicating that about 100 people have been injured and in hospitals.


The Macedonians are protesting unending government corruption, as well
as demands by Albanian nationalists for a "Greater Albania," an
enlargement of the current Albania to include ethnic Albanian
populations for neighboring countries.

The idea of a Greater Albania was launched in the late 1800s, and was
favored by Nazi Germany and Italy's Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini
during World War II. It was revived during the brief Macedonian civil
war in 2001, and is pursued by Albanian nationalists. Many people
consider the Albanian nationalist movement to be a danger to the
entire region, because it might ignite further wars.

Other analysts see no fear of war, and several politicians are blaming
the whole incident on the United States and the European Union for
meddling. Reuters and Macedonia Online
and B92 (Belgrade)

Related Articles

[*] Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece (22-Aug-2015)

[*] A train station in Macedonia becomes the new European migrant choke point (19-Aug-2015)

[*] 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants (11-May-2015)


****
**** Brief generational history of Macedonia
****

The most famous leader in Macedonia's history is Alexander the Great,
considered by many to be the most brilliant military leader of all
time. He was born in 356 BC, and became King of Macedonia upon his
father's death in 336 BC. He created a vast empire from Greece to
Egypt to Persia to India by the time of his death in 323 BC.

Upon his death, Macedonia and his entire empire were thrown into a
succession of violent upheavals. For centuries, Macedonia was
important because it controlled the major trading and transportation
routes through the Balkans.

Macedonia was part of the Ottoman Empire from 1371 to 1912. The
Balkan Wars of 1912-13 were a generational crisis war for Macedonia,
resulting in the country parts of the country under the control of
Greece and Serbia.

After the war, Macedonia became part of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia.
World War II was a non-crisis war for Macedonia. The country was
split, with Italian-ruled Albania annexing the western portion, and
pro-German Bulgaria annexing the eastern portion. After WW II,
Yugoslavia was reconstituted, including Macedonia.

From the point of view of generational theory, Macedonia is a country
that's very difficult to analyze because a constant stream of
invasions by neighboring country leave it with no unique history
timeline. Macedonia is landlocked, surrounded by Greece, Bulgaria,
Serbia and Albania, and all of these countries have, at one time or
another, invaded and controlled Macedonia.

However, when viewed as a part of the Balkans as a whole, its
generational timeline becomes clearer. The Balkan wars of 1912-13
were a crisis war that threw the country into decades of chaos, until
it was brought under control by the brutal, bloody dictatorship of
Marshall Josip Broz Tito starting in 1953, as a Communist satellite of
the Soviet Union.

Tito's death in 1980 coincided with the beginning of generational
Crisis era for the Balkan countries, roughly 60 years after the end of
World War I. The coalitions that Tito had held together with bloody
force began to disintegrate, and in 1991, new Balkan wars began as
generational crisis wars. The Bosnia war in particular, ending in
1995, was one of the bloodiest and most brutal wars of recent times.

In Macedonia, the biggest tensions were between the ethnic
Macedonians, with 64% of the population, and the ethnic Albanians,
with 25% of the population. The result was a brief civil war in 2001
started by an uprising by ethnic Albanians. There have been sporadic
flare-ups between the two ethnic groups since then.


In 2015, the 'Balkan Route' for refugees leaving Greece began with Macedonia

Macedonia has been in the news in recent for other reasons that are
worth summarizing now:

• Macedonia and Greece don't get along very well, apparently
  because ill feelings remain from Alexander the Great's conquest of
  Greece. In particular, Greece strongly objects to the country having
  the name "Macedonia," since Greece considers that to belong to Greece
  as the name of a province. For that reason, the official UN and EU
  name of Macedonia is actually FYROM -- "The Former Yugoslav Republic of
  Macedonia."
  
  
• Macedonia was a critical link for the Balkan Route in 2015.
  Refugees from Turkey would pour into Greece, and from there would
  cross the border into Macedonia on their way to Germany. Today, the
  Balkan Route has been closed by multiple fences along national
  borders.
  
  
• In 2016, Macedonia was exposed as the center of a scandal, where
  teenagers were making thousands of dollars by generating "fake
  news."

History World and History of Macedonia and NBC News

****
**** Heidelberg Conflict Barometer
****

In the course of researching this article, I came across the
Heidelberg Conflict Barometer, from the Heidelberg Institute for
International Conflict Research, which is one of the most complete
listings and analyses of conflicts going on in the world today. It
identifies 18 different disputes currently in the Balkans.

This study is invaluable for anyone analyzing the world's conflicts
today. What the study lacks is any attempt to relate the conflicts to
generational timelines. Any college student interested in these
subjects could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's
going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, the
problem of relating all today's conflicts to generational timelines.
RFE/RL and Heidelberg Conflict Barometer 2016

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Macedonia, Albania, Greater Albania,
Italy, Benito Mussolini,
Alexander the Great, Yugoslavia, Marshall Josip Broz Tito,
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, FYROM,
Greece, Balkan Route, Heidelberg Conflict Barometer

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John J. Xenakis
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