Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

China is not a debtor nation, it is currently one of the main creditor nations. Also they currently have high regime stability, the current leadership over there is by most accounts the most popular leadership they've had in nearly 20 years. In Russia Putin's regime is even more popular having had practically unanimous support from the populace in the occupation of Crimea. It is the US and Europe that are having problems with regime stability and regime continuity. There is already Brexit, in Germany Merkel will probably lose the next elections. Here in america the establishment is panicking and overtly trying to shove Hillary down our throats. Face it Hillary is going to LOSE, she has already lost credibility by breaking the law regarding the primary elections, not to mention her culpability regarding Benghazi and the email scandal. Xers and Millies will vote trump because he has the same beliefs regarding how to use the military as well as sharing their opposition to going to war based on humanitarian principles. Xers and Millies support going to war only for the prospect of gaining spoil and war loot/booty. Going to war because a bigger country launches bullies and attacks a smaller country with america fighting on behalf of the smaller country not because we serve to gain anything but out of discuss so that we are shielding the smaller country and taking the hits instead will never support among most xers/millies. Humanitarian intervention would not gain support among Millies because it goes against millies basic nature. We millies love trump even more now that he is challenging globalism as personified by the recent khan argument. We admire trump, looking back using a 1990s example; we admire Milosevic and Tudjman and consider Izetbegovic a pathetic weakling.

*** 4-Aug-16 World View -- North Korean missile strikes sea close to Japan, threatening radar base

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• N. Korean officials reportedly alarmed at Kim Jong-un's drinking and massive weight gain
  
• North Korean missile strikes sea close to Japan, threatening radar base
  

****
**** N. Korean officials reportedly alarmed at Kim Jong-un's drinking and massive weight gain
****


Child dictator Kim Jong-un

Reports indicate that North Korea's Intelligence Agency is becoming
concerned about the child dictator's weight gain, which has grown from
198 pounds in 2012 to 286. Reports indicate that Kim Jong-un is
consuming high-quality cheeses, Big Macs, vodka, steak, and sushi, and
that he's suffering from gout, diabetes, high blood pressure, high
uric acid, and high cholesterol.

Another South Korean report indicates that North Korean state
television showed Kim Jong-un falling asleep at a meeting, apparently
because he had been drunk the night before. There are widespread
rumors in North Korea that Kim enjoys boozing until late into the
night.

Meanwhile, the people of North Korea starve. India Times and Daily Star (London) and Esquire

****
**** North Korean missile strikes sea close to Japan, threatening radar base
****

On Wednesday morning, North Korea launched two ballistic missiles.
One missile exploded after launch. A second missile traveled 621 miles
and landed in the Sea of Japan, 155 miles from Japan's Oga Peninsula,
and was on a straight line to strike a Japanese radar station in
Shariki. The latest tests show that North Korea is capable of
targeting many of South Korea's areas including harbors and airfields
with nuclear missiles.

Going back to the beginning of this year, North Korea made its fourth
nuclear bomb test on January 6, followed by a long-range missile test
on February 7.

These tests were the triggers that convinced South Korea's government,
after years of equivocation, to finally approve the deployment of the
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea by the end
of the year. ( "28-Jul-16 World View -- China, Japan vociferously object to South Korea's THAAD missile system deployment"
)

North Korea vowed that it would have a "physical response" response to
the THAAD announcement. So there was a missile launch on July 7, a
submarine-launched missile test on July 8, though they couldn't have
been in reaction to the THAAD announcement, which came on July 8.
There was another missile test on July 19. Wednesday's test was the
first to come close to actually threatening a target on Japanese soil.
North Korea has also issued sharp denunciations of the United States
decision to list North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un under new
sanctions.

However, some analysts are saying that the missile tests are more than
just for show, and are more than just a reaction to the THAAD
announcement. The missile tests really ARE missile tests, in the
process of North Korea's development of new missile technology, which
appears to be improving with time.

North Korea issued a new statement on Wednesday reacting to THAAD: "If
the monster known as THAAD comes to coil itself in the South's
territory, [the land] will transform itself into a nuclear arms race
arena that brings in neighboring powers."

According to Chinese state media:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The launch, already the third missile fired by the
> DPRK [North Korea] after Washington and Seoul announced their
> decision on July 8 to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense
> (THAAD) missile shield in South Korea, could easily be interpreted
> as a protest against the planned installation of the system.
>
> It also serves a reminder to policymakers in Seoul that by
> allowing THAAD deployment, South Korea is putting the cart before
> the horse in their pursuit of national security, as the key to
> security lies in good neighborly and friendly relations with its
> neighbors, rather than a bunch of U.S.-made
> missiles."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, that analysis doesn't make sense, as there were missile tests
before the THAAD announcement. It's pretty clear that North Korea is
going to continue with development of nuclear weapon and missile
technology, irrespective anything that South Korea does. Dong-a Ilbo (Seoul) and The Diplomat and UPI and Xinhua


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Japan, Oga Peninsula, Shariki, China,
South Korea, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD

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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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JohnX and XYMOX are making the mistake that the established 2T and 3T values are the values that a nation will rally around and defend in the 4T. In germany in the last saeculum the what consituted "german values" in the 4T war (WW2) beared little resemblence to what existed during the previous 3T: Note the difference in german policy during WW1 and its counterpart in WW2, they bear little resemblance to one another because the WW2 policies came from a completely different value system that was not present a generation earlier in WW1. Boomers and reaganite-leaning Xers like JohnX and XYMOX refuse to contemplate a "phase-transition" of what constitutes american values. Such phase-transitions have happened before in history such as in Mongolia around 1200 AD china in the 220s BC, France in 1789 and again in 1799 and in Germany in 1933. China in 1949-1950 can also be considered a such "phase-transition" as well. Instead boomers and reaganite-leaning Xers insist on having complete control of US policymaking. This if allowed to continue will lead to inevitable WW3 with Russia or China or Both.

Hillary personifies boomer selfishness and decadence. She has mush for brains which was shown when she said "America need more love and kindness" she supported the Iraq war. Trump opposed it; Note that trump is NOT against war in principle, he opposed the Iraq war as it was waged because it was a pathetic "humanitarian" intervention. Trump is right when he said "at least we should have taken their oil". Hillary and her disgusting smile and her selfish brain which percolates with notions of "human rights" and "America needs more love and kindness" is a disgusting ABOMINATION.

(08-03-2016, 11:55 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: [ -> ]Hillary and her disgusting smile and her selfish brain which percolates with notions of "human rights" and "America needs more love and kindness" is a disgusting ABOMINATION.

While I disagree with you on principle about human rights (human rights are fundamental Western Values predating the Boomers by centuries), I will say that watching the DNC convention I was struck with the feeling that it was half Woodstock and half Hollywood award ceremony (without actual awards). As for her saying America needs more love and kindness I almost hurled when she said that. The last thing America needs is (more) hippie-dippie bullshit. No what America needs is to either a) be an actual empire, or b) give up the empire entirely. I support the latter as nation building like charity begins at home.

2008 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first black as president"
2016 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first woman as president"
2024 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first homosexual as president"
2032 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first cross-dresser as president"
2040 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first admitted rapist as president"

*** 5-Aug-16 World View -- Bank of England uses 'sledgehammer' stimulus to fight Brexit slowdown

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bank of England uses 'sledgehammer' stimulus to fight Brexit slowdown
  
• China overtaking both Russia and US in influence in Central Asia
  

****
**** Bank of England uses 'sledgehammer' stimulus to fight Brexit slowdown
****


Mark Carney on Thursday

It was expected that on Thursday, the Bank of England's governor Mark
Carney would announce that the BoE would reduce interest rates from
the already low 0.5%, set in 2009 during the financial crisis, to an
even lower 0.25%.

Mark Carney, who is a Canadian is currently the Governor of the Bank
of England (BoE) did make that exact announcement, but he shocked
investors by announcing a lot more. He announced a massive program to
"print money" and use it for a quantitative easing program that would
purchase about 70 billion pounds ($100 billion) of bonds -- not only
government bonds but also corporate bonds.

As we described two days ago,

global interest rates have been rapidly plummeting since November of
last year, and the average is now at 0.5%, causing a great deal of
alarm among many financial experts. Carney said on Thursday that the
BoE has no plans to implement negative interest rates, which have been
increasingly common in countries around the world, but his
announcement nonetheless will push the average down even farther.

The announcements by Mark Carney, who is not a Honeymooner, have
received several forms of criticism. Some analysts point out that
quantitative easing and low or negative interest rates have been tried
around the world and haven't worked so far, although others claim that
these policies have allowed the world the recover from the financial
crisis. Another criticism is that by purchasing corporate bonds, the
BoE will be picking and choosing among companies, giving big
advantages to the companies whose bonds are purchased over the
companies whose bonds are not purchased. Others say that even if the
interest rate change was necessary at this time, the UK economy is in
good shape and does not need such a massive quantitative easing
purchase.

Carney admitted that he was using "a sledgehammer to crack a nut," and
he said that the successful Brexit referendum, which called for
Britain to leave the European Union, would cause the economy to slow
later this year, and so he was acting pre-emptively:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We took these steps because the economic outlook has
> changed markedly. Indicators have all fallen sharply, in most
> cases to levels last seen in the financial crisis, and in some
> cases to all-time lows. ...
>
> By acting early and comprehensively, the (Bank) can reduce
> uncertainty, bolster confidence, blunt the slowdown and support
> the necessary adjustments in the UK economy."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Whether that's true remains to be seen. By announcing such a massive
easing program, investors may decide that the UK economy is in more
trouble than they realized, and they may actually lose confidence and
make things worse than they currently are.

In fact, Generational Dynamics predicts that exactly that will happen,
because the velocity of money keeps plummeting. As I explained in
"11-Mar-16 World View -- In desperation move, European Central Bank further lowers negative interest rates"
, the velocity of money is a generational
variable, and a falling velocity of money means that people are afraid
to spend money or to go into debt.

Carney's desperation announcement on Thursday also contained provision
to attempt to tackle the velocity of money problem, saying that the
0.25% interest rates should make it easy for banks to lend money to
people and businesses. He said that banks have "no excuse" not to
pass on the lower borrowing costs to customers and will be charged a
penalty if they fail to do so. That hasn't worked in Japan and
Europe, so don't be surprised if it doesn't work in Britain. BBC and Reuters and Bloomberg

****
**** China overtaking both Russia and US in influence in Central Asia
****

On Thursday, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced at a meeting
that the US will providing $15 million in aid five Central Asian
countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss projects in the
fields of trade, transport, business climate, renewable energy
sources, the fight against terrorism, as well as the trafficking of
weapons, illicit drugs and people. This follows a similar meeting in
Uzbekistan in November 2015.

Russian officials fear that the US is trying with this announcement of
$15 million in aid to gain greater influence in Central Asia at
Russia's expense. The Central Asian countries were all part of the
Soviet Union before it disintegrated in 1991, so Russia considers
itself to be the prior influencer of these five nations, and considers
the US moves to be suspicious.

But in fact, Russia has much more to fear from China than from the US.

Kazakhstan may already be choosing China over Russia. Most of the
routes from China to Europe in China's "New Silk Road" or "One Belt
One Road" (OBOR) initiative pass through Kazakhstan, giving China
numerous opportunities for investments and influence. In fact,
Kazakhstan has already announced the "100 concrete steps" program that
incorporate Chinese investments and goals. This includes a railway
that crosses the entire territory of Kazakhstan and reaches Iran.

However, one result of China's increasing investments is generation of
Sinophobia among the general public. As we reported in May,
authorities in Kazakhstan have had to
react harshly to widespread demonstrations in cities across the
country protesting against "land reforms" that would permit large
Chinese agribusinesses to take control of vast swaths of farmland.

However, nowhere has the spread of Chinese influence been greater than
in Tajikistan. According to one local commentator,

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[China has] begun to extend its financial influence in
> various spheres of the [Tajikistani] economy, to buy up industries
> and to take control of agricultural land, [with the result that] we
> have become completely dependent on China [and] filled up by
> Chinese entrepreneurs."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's thought that there are now 150,000 Chinese working in Tajikistan,
even though the government says that the total quotas for foreign
workers is only 8,000 a year.

As in Kazakhstan, the Chinese are taking control of huge amounts of
farmland in the countryside, where officials are renting an increasing
amount of land to Chinese farmers for 49-year terms. Furthermore,
when the Chinese hire Tajik laborers, they treat them as "second
class" people, and pay them less than they pay Chinese workers.
Sputnik News (Moscow) and Diplomat (6-Jul) and Jamestown

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bank of England, Mark Carney,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
Russia, China

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(08-04-2016, 06:20 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: [ -> ]2008 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first black as president"
2016 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first woman as president"
2024 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first homosexual as president"
2032 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first cross-dresser as president"
2040 - "Vote for me, I'll be America's first admitted rapist as president"

Of the first four none are reasons to elect anyone for president.  The last is a reason to send someone to prison.  Also we've already had an admitted rapist president in William Jefferson Clinton.  Furthermore we've already had a gay president (James Buchanan) if one listens to the historical revisionists for more than five minutes.

*** 6-Aug-16 World View -- Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard
  
• Egypt claims that it killed leaders of ISIS branch in Sinai
  
• Video from Sinai's ISIS branch threatens Rome, Israel and all Jews
  

****
**** Venezuela's economic crisis is hitting Cuba hard
****


More starving children in Venezuela's Socialist paradise are nothing but skin and bones

Children in Venezuela are increasingly dying from starvation, their
bodies nothing but skin and bones, the outlines of their ribs visible.

The two major Socialist countries in the world, Venezuela and North
Korea, have starving population with no hope for improvement because
they're following Socialist policies that have been disastrous
whenever and wherever they've been tried. It's just one more of those
things that you wouldn't believe is even possible if it weren't
actually happening.

The Soviet Union and China were forced to abandon Socialism in the
last few decades in order to allow people to eat. Even Cuba, that
Socialist paradise, finally gave up Socialism in 2010. ( "16-Sep-2010 News -- Cuba's seismic shift has global implications"
)

But Cuba's economy is still crippled from decades of Socialism, and is
still heavily dependent on Venezuela for energy imports.

For years, Venezuela has met its commitment to Cuba to ship some
80,000 to 90,000 barrels of oil daily to Cuba at subsidized prices in
exchange for the services of some 40,000 Cuban medical and educational
professionals.

But oil production in Venezuela has fallen 12% in the last year alone,
thanks to Venezuela's oil industry, run by incompetent cronies of the
Socialist president Nicolás Maduro Moros. Maduro has promised to keep
the oil flowing to Cuba, but in fact they're finally declining, down
19.5% this year.

There are widespread fears in Cuba of another "Special Period," like
the one that occurred in the early 1990s with the collapse of the
Soviet Union, which at that time was Cuba's provider, causing extreme
hardship for the Cuban people.

The collapse of Venezuela's economy will impose new hardships on the
Cuban people, but they're unlikely to be as bad as the "Special
Period" of the 1990s. In 1989, more than 80% of Cuban trade was with
the Soviet bloc, which provided 98% of Cuba’s oil. Today, Venezuela
accounts for only about 40% of Cuban trade. Today, Cuba imports 59% of
its oil, so even a total loss of Venezuelan oil would not have the
disastrous impact the Soviet collapse had. Miami Herald and Merco Press (Montevideo Uruguay) and World Politics Review

****
**** Egypt claims that it killed leaders of ISIS branch in Sinai
****

A statement on the Facebook page of Egypt's armed forces says that a
missile strike has killed Abu Doaa Al-Ansari, the leader of the ISIS
branch in northern Sinai, along with 45 additional militants.

Al-Ansari was the leader of the terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM
- Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which changed its name to
Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it changed its allegiance
from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh).

ABM has been conducting terror attacks against Egypt's army and
government targets for years, but they became more frequent in 2013,
after the coup that deposed Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood
government.

ABM has claimed responsibility for the downing of Russia's Metrojet
Flight 9268 passenger plane over Sinai in Egypt in November 2015.
( "5-Nov-15 World View -- Bombing of plane in Egypt threatens Russia's Syria strategy"
)

Some analysts are questioning the validity of Egypt's claim that ABM
leader Abu Doaa Al-Ansari has been killed. They point out that
killing 45 militants with a missile strike is extremely unlikely
because so many militants would not congregate in one place. Egypt
has clamped a strict media blackout on the Sinai, so it's impossible
to independently verify Egypt's claims. Daily News Egypt
and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al Arabiya (23-Jul)

****
**** Video from Sinai's ISIS branch threatens Rome, Israel and all Jews
****

Al Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai), formerly Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis
(ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), the ISIS branch in
Egypt's Sinai, has released a 35-minute video entitled "Flames of the
Desert," which delivers a rare threat to Israel.

The video shows past attacks on Egypt's military targets, and says:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This is only the beginning, and our meeting [will be]
> in Rome and Beit Al-Maqdis [Jerusalem]. ... Oh Jews, wait for
> us. The punishment [we have prepared for you] is severe and soon
> you will pay a high price."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

ISIS videos have not threatened Israel in the past. The Sinai branch
of ISIS may wish to directly threaten Israel because Israel and Egypt
are cooperating militarily to defeat ABM, the Sinai branch of ISIS.
Jerusalem Post and Egypt Independent


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Moros, North Korea,
Cuba, Soviet Union, Egypt, Metrojet Flight 9268,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai, Abu Doaa Al-Ansari,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Israel, Rome

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')
  
• Generational history of cow protection in India and Hinduism
  

****
**** India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')
****


Narendra Modi on Saturday (NDTV)

Under political pressure, India's prime minister Narendra Modi broke
his silence on "gau rakshaks" (cow protectors), after four Dalits
(low-caste "untouchables") in Gujarat were brutally beaten by
vigilante gau rakshaks for allegedly killing a cow, which later
investigation revealed to have been killed by a lion.

At a townhall meeting on Saturday, Modi said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I get so angry at those who are into the Gau-Rakshak
> business. A Gau-Bhakt (cow devotee) is different, Gau Seva (cow
> protection) is different. I have seen that some people are into
> crimes all night and wear the garb of Gau Rakshaks in the day.
>
> 70-80% will be those who indulge in anti-social activities and try
> to hide their sins by pretending to be Gau Rakshaks. If they are
> true protectors, they should realize that most cows die because of
> plastic, not slaughter. They should stop cows from eating
> plastic."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Eating of cows has been forbidden by Hinduism for three millennia, but
in the current generational Crisis era, the question of protecting
cows has become heavily tied into Hindutva, or Hindu nationalism,
which sometimes is used to excuse violence towards Muslims, Christians
and Dalits. ( "12-Oct-15 World View -- India Hindus attack Muslims as cow slaughter incidents surge"
)

Although Modi and his ruling Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) party have not supported or praised these attacks, they haven't
spoken out against them either, until Modi's statement on Saturday.
It's possible that there may be a backlash in the days ahead from
extreme nationalist members of his own party.

Pawan Pandit, who is chairman of one gau rakshak group, the Bhartiya
Gau Raksha Dal (BGRD), defends his movement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We are not anti-Muslim or anti-Dalit. We are a
> fraternity which wants to save the cow, because she is our
> mother... because that is what my religion, my parents, my holy
> book, taught me. ...
>
> "Forget that cow slaughter hurts our sensibility, forget that our
> holy book considers slaughter of cow as the biggest crime, forget
> that we are a majority... at least, look at the cow as the biggest
> source of economy for rural India. And look at the scientific
> reasons, the benefits of using its products—be it milk, urine or
> cow dung. I am not the one saying all this. International research
> claims so. America, in fact, has patented a cow urine
> drug."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As far as I can tell, there's a parallel here between India and
Pakistan. In India, Hindu nationalists can get somebody killed by
falsely accusing him of defiling a cow, while in Pakistan, Muslim
nationalists can get somebody killed by falsely accusing him of
defiling the Koran. New Delhi Television and Indian Express and Live Mint (India)

****
**** Generational history of cow protection in India and Hinduism
****


Map of 1947 partitioning of British India into India and Pakistan (BBC)

The origins of the veneration of the cow in Hinduism can be traced
back almost three millennia to India's Vedic period. With the rise of
the ideal of ahimsa (“noninjury”), the absence of the desire to harm
living creatures, the cow came to symbolize a life of nonviolent
generosity. In addition, because her products supplied nourishment,
the cow was associated with motherhood and Mother Earth.

During the Medieval era, especially when the Muslim Mughal Empire was
in power, there was always tension between Muslims, who consider pigs
to be unclean, and Hindus, who consider cows to be venerated. This
led to tensions during generational Awakening eras, and sometimes led
to war during generational Crisis eras.

In the 1850s, veneration of cows became a major trigger in the
extremely bloody generational crisis war, the 1857 Indian Rebellion,
also called India's First War of Independence from the British
colonial power.

In the 1850s, the British East India Company, which was governing
India, introduced a new sort of ammunition for a new model of the
Enfield rifle.

To be loaded, this cartridge had to be torn open so that the powder it
contained could be poured down the barrel of the muzzle-loading gun;
because the soldier’s hands were full, this was done with the
teeth. Then the bullet had to be rammed down the rifled barrel. To
facilitate its passage, the cartridges were greased with tallow, which
was made of beef and pork fat.

These cartridges were used by British soldiers, and were also issued
to sepoys (Indian soldiers) who served under the command of the
British army. There's some dispute as to whether the cartridges
issued to the sepoys were also greased with beef and pork fat, but
there's no doubt that once the issue became public and suspicions were
raised, rumors spread rapidly among the sepoys that the British were
defiling their bodies and destroying their lives by breaking their
castes, which was the punishment for eating beef. The Muslim sepoys
were also offended that they had been eating pork fat.

This was a generational Crisis era, and anti-British xenophobia and
nationalism were already high, but the greased cartridges triggered
riots and mutinies that spread across India. The war lasted over
two years and resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

There were dramatic changes during the Recovery Era that followed the
end of the war. The British Indian Empire was created out of the
former East India Company, and India was under the direct rule of the
British Crown. However, the Indian tribes and families were given a
great deal more autonomy. There was a blossoming of culture, with new
universities, colleges and schools opened by Indians, and there was
new technology, including new railroads and irrigation systems.

However, it's typical of the government in such situations to do
everything possible to prevent anything so horrible from happening
again, and in this case it meant harshly suppressing any dissent, even
jailing protestors. It's remarkable that of the histories of the 1857
rebellion that were written in the following decades, they were all
written by British authors, and almost never by Indian authors.

The first major Indian account of the 1857 Rebellion was by a young
Hindu activist named Veer Savarkar, whose book, "The Indian War Of
Independence-1857" was published in 1909, and contained descriptions
like the following:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[England] seized the innocent Hindu villagers,
> sentenced them to be hanged, and then pierced them with bayonets,
> and then, Heavens! thrust beef dripping with blood – the blood of
> the cow – down their throats, at the point of the bayonet – a
> desecration to which they would have preferred being hanged and,
> even, being burnt alive?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Savarkar was jailed for insurrection, and later became an extremely
violent Hindu nationalist terrorist, and started the Hindutva movement
which still exists today.

There were two other well-known figures that came out of the
generational Awakening and Unraveling periods following the rebellion:
Mahatma Gandhi, the Indian peace activist, and Muhammad Ali Jinnah,
who became the founder of Pakistan.

Gandhi launched a "non-cooperation movement" against the British,
involving civil disobedience. The Awakening era climax occurred on
April 10-12, 1919, with the Jalianvala Bagh Massacre (Amritsar
Massacre), when British troops opened fire on 10,000 Sikhs holding a
protest meeting, killing hundreds. That event convinced both the
British and the Indians that Britain should completely give up control
of India.

Cow protection had already started again as a symbol of Hindu
nationalism as early as 1882, as cow protection societies began to be
formed at that time. Cow protection became more and more important as
a nationalist symbol in the following decades, as a decision was made
for India to leave the British empire and become an independent state.

The debate in 1946 following World War II centered on two choices:
Should there be a single Indian state, with separate regions under the
control of Muslims and Hindus, or should there be a two-state
solution, a Muslim state living side-by-side in peace with a Hindu
state? The argument that won the day was that Muslims can't stand
pigs and Hindus can't eat cows, and so they can't live together.
Finally, Jinnah and Gandhi agreed that there had to be two separate
states, India and Pakistan.

The 1857 rebellion was still fresh in everyone's mind, and it was
believed that a new war could be avoided by Britain giving up control
of India. If Britain had tried to keep India as part of the British
empire, then there might well have been a new war similar to the 1857
rebellion. So that was prevented, but in a generational Crisis era,
you have the rise of young generations with no memory of the past, a
feeling of invulnerability, and a desire for war -- any war.

So India and Pakistan were created, leading to the 1947 Partition war
between Muslims and Hindus, possibly the largest and bloodiest battle
of the 20th century, eclipsing the bloodiness of the 1857 Rebellion.

This is an example of the saying, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."

Since then, India and Pakistan have fought three wars. One of these,
the 1971 war in Bengal (East Pakistan) was a generational crisis war
that created the nation of Bangladesh. ( "3-Jul-16 World View -- Bangladesh tries to recover from Dhaka terror attack, the worst in 40 years"
)

Today, Hindu nationalism is again rising, and it will undoubtedly have
the same result that it had in 1947 and 1857. Britannica
and Smithsonian and BBC



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Narendra Modi, gau rakshak, Gujarat,
Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Bhartiya Gau Raksha Dal, BGRD,
Muslims, Hindus, Dalits, Christians, Hindutva,
Mughal Empire, 1857 India Rebellion, India's First War of Independence,
British East India Company, Enfield Rifle,
Veer Savarkar, Mahatma Gandhi, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan,
1947 Partition war, 1971, Bangladesh

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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 8-Aug-16 World View -- Syrian regime apparently suffers major setback in Aleppo

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• People of Aleppo burn tires to create a smoky 'no-fly zone'
  
• Syrian regime apparently suffers major setback in Aleppo
  

****
**** People of Aleppo burn tires to create a smoky 'no-fly zone'
****


Burning tires in Aleppo to create a 'no-fly zone' (AP)

With Aleppo's civilians, including hundreds of thousands of women and
children, being bombed indiscriminately by the regime of Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad and by Russia's warplanes, sending missiles
into schools and hospitals, dropping barrel bombs laden with metal and
chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, the people are using any
method they can to protect themselves. Even children are doing their
part.

The people of Aleppo, including children, are burning tires in order
to create a "smoke curtain" above the city, blocking the warplanes
from identifying targets to bomb. There have been repeated proposals
to create a "no-fly zone" over Syria, but none has ever been
implemented. The people of Aleppo are creating their own no-fly zone
by burning tires. BBC and Gulf News

****
**** Syrian regime apparently suffers major setback in Aleppo
****

Rebel forces in Syria fighting against the army of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad, supported by forces from Iran and Iran-controlled
Hezbollah and by Russia's air force, are claiming that they've broken
the siege that had blocked food shipments into Aleppo.

If this is true then it could represent a major setback for al-Assad
and for Russia's president Vladimir Putin. As we described last week,
Russia is using the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo.
There are 300,000 civilians,
including women and children, in Aleppo. Putin's plan, following the
Grozny model that Russia used in the war in Chechnya, is to drive as
many people out of Aleppo as possible, to where they can be easily
targeted and killed by missiles and chlorine-laden barrel bombs, and
then call anyone remaining in the city a "terrorist," and flatten the
entire city, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians.

Part of the strategy was to use a siege to starve the city, and then
allow people to leave at the appropriate time. However, a coalition
of two dozen anti-Assad rebel groups, calling itself "The Army of
Conquest," led by Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS), are claiming that
they've broken the siege and that food is entering the city.

Apparently, the change that permitted the coalition to be formed was
that JFS renounced its affiliation with al-Qaeda. ( "29-Jul-16 World View -- Syria's Al-Nusra splits with al-Qaeda, becoming Jabhat Fateh al-Sham"
)
Many anti-Assad groups didn't want to be linked to al-Qaeda, and were
demanding that Jabhat al-Nusra split with al-Qaeda before any
coalition could be formed.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the rebels had
broken the siege but the route was "not fully secure yet." Even if
the coalition have broken the siege, it remains to be seen whether
they can consolidate their gains, especially as the Syrian, Russian
and Iranian forces redeploy to reinstate the siege. AP and ARA News (Syria-Kurdish)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Aleppo, Russia, Bashar al-Assad,
Vladimir Putin, Grozny, Chechnya, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS,
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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*** 9-Aug-16 World View -- Quetta Pakistan terror attack kills 75, while unrest grows in Kashmir

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan again in shock after bloody terrorist attack in Quetta
  
• The debate in Pakistan: Good terrorists vs Bad terrorists
  
• Violence and unrest increase in India's Kashmir
  

****
**** Pakistan again in shock after bloody terrorist attack in Quetta
****


Residents light candles to honor victims of the Quetta blast on Monday (Reuters)

Terror attacks are nothing out of the ordinary in Pakistan, but this
attack on Monday is causing even more consternation than others
because it exposes the weaknesses in its own security services as well
as its inability to control terror groups that in the past it helped
create.

On Monday, a terrorist gunman in Quetta shot Bilal Anwar Kasi, the
leader of the Balochistan Bar Association, where Quetta is the
provincial capital of the province of Balochistan, which is in
southwest Pakistan bordering Iran and Afghanistan.

Kasi was taken to Quetta's Civil Hospital, where a group of lawyers
gathered to mourn his death. A suicide bomber then approached the
lawyers and exploded, killing at least 75 people, mostly lawyers, and
injuring at least 115 others.

Jamaat ul-Ahrar (JuA, Assembly of Freedom) claimed responsibility.
JuA has long been one of the terrorist groups under the umbrella group
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). JuA split off from TTP in the middle
of 2014 in a disagreement caused by TTP's plans to hold peace talks
with Pakistan's government. JuA has rejoined TTP last year, but has
also declared allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). For that reason, ISIS is also claiming responsibility
for the attack.

On March 15 of last year, JuA claimed responsibility for suicide
bombers at two churches, one Catholic and one Protestant, also in
Lahore, killing 15 people and injuring 70.

On March 27 of this year, JuA took credit for the Easter massacre of Christians in Lahore
in a terror
attack. That attack killed more than 69 people, mostly women and
children, and injured more than 300. That attack was supposed to kill
Christians, but as it turned out, most of the people killed were
Muslims. At the time, a JuA spokesman issued a statement: "Members of
the Christian community who were celebrating Easter today were our
prime target. [However,] we didn't want to kill women and
children. Our targets were male members of the Christian community."

So JuA was pretty incompetent in that attack, killing a lot of Muslim
women and children rather than Christian men. Pretty stupid bunch.
So maybe this time they decided to target lawyers so that they'd kill
only men, but they're still just killing Muslims. A regular bunch of
Keystone Kops. Dawn (Pakistan)
and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Britannica

****
**** The debate in Pakistan: Good terrorists vs Bad terrorists
****

Many analysts, especially in India, are accusing Pakistan of having a
policy of distinguishing between "good terrorists," who target
Afghanistan and India, and "bad terrorists," who target Pakistan
itself. It was just last week that US State Department spokesman Mark
Toner said exactly that:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[We] believe that Pakistan has taken and is taking
> steps to counter terrorist violence, and certainly focusing on
> those groups that threaten Pakistani or Pakistan’s stability. They
> have – the military has shut down some of these safe
> havens. They’ve restored government control to parts of Pakistan
> that were used as terrorist safe havens for years. And these are
> important steps that have continued – or contributed, rather, to
> security interests in the region. And they’ve come at a cost of
> Pakistani lives lost. But at the same time, we’ve been very clear
> with the highest levels of the Government of Pakistan that they
> must target all militant groups, and that includes those that
> target Pakistan’s neighbors, and they must also close all safe
> havens."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's ironic that Toner made these remarks just a few days before
Monday's horrific attack. On Saturday, an angry editorial in
Pakistan's Daily Times directed outrage at Toner:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"May I ask whether the State Department has given any
> proof to Islamabad pinpointing the safe havens? Google Earth is
> now in everybody’s hands; no part on earth remains a secret to
> anyone in the world or beyond this globe. Shouldn’t Mark Toner
> present the satellite images of any of the safe havens within
> Pakistan or those spared by the forces engaged in Zarb-e-Azb
> operation? Such statements are tantamount to casting aspersions on
> Pakistani people, government and armed forces’ all-out sincere
> efforts to kill this terror monster once and for all. Time and
> again, Americans have been told that we no more differentiate
> between good and bad Taliban."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The Saturday editorial agrees that Pakistan in the past used to
differentiate between good and bad Taliban, but claims that it no
longer happens.

For many years, Pakistan resisted international calls to do something
about the terrorist havens, particularly in Pakistan's Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the border with Afghanistan.
In June 2014, the Taliban pulled off a spectacular attack on Karachi airport.
The editorial above refers
to Zarb-e-Azb, which is the name of an operation that Pakistan's army
finally launched in the tribal area, to "clean out" the Taliban's hideouts and weapons stores.

On Monday, the BBC interviewed Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's former
ambassador to the United States. He was asked to comment on Monday's
attack in Quetta. Here's my transcription:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The extremist jihadis obviously do not appreciate or
> agree with modernity, and lawyers do represent rule of law, they
> represent a more secular orientation than the jihadis would want.
> Pakistan's dilemma is that it ends up supporting certain jihadis
> for operations against Afghanistan and India, while at the same
> time helping others. The ones it supports end up helping the ones
> it opposes.
>
> There are 42 jihadi extremist groups in Pakistan that have been
> identified as perpetrators of terrorism in Pakistan. Several have
> been banned, but have resurfaced, because of Pakistan's policy of
> making a distinction between groups that it can use against its
> neighbors and groups that it wants to suppress.
>
> Baluchistan is a particularly difficult province - it has an
> insurgency going on by Baluch secular nationalists, and the army
> tends to use the Islamists to try and fight the separatists or
> nationalists, whom it considers to be a greater threat to
> Pakistan.
>
> There was some success [with the Zarb-e-Azb army operation], but
> the success will always be limited by Pakistan's own 25 year
> policy of making distinctions between groups. So while some
> groups have been suppressed, others have not. ...
>
> [Pakistan's policy] has indeed created a monster, and Pakistan's
> people have suffered because of that, but Pakistan's military
> intelligence service, Pakistan's military and some elements of
> what can be called the Pakistan establishment are just too wedded
> to this policy to want to change it, even though the cost is as
> high as we saw today.
>
> It's quite clear that Washington's support [for Pakistan] - $23
> billion since 9/11 - has not worked sufficiently to make Pakistan
> change its policy entirely, and so we do not know what
> [additional] pressure Washington might be able to bear. I think
> what we have to live with is that Pakistan will continue to be in
> this dichotomous position, until and unless Pakistan's leaders
> realize that the price their people are paying is just too
> high."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

US State Dept. (4-Aug) and Daily Times (Pakistan, 6-Aug) and Daily Excelsior (India, 7-Aug)

****
**** Violence and unrest increase in India's Kashmir
****

An injured youth died on Monday, after suffering injuries sustained in
a police action in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Violent clashes in
Kashmir began on July 9, following the death on July 8 of Burhan Wani,
22, a 22-year-old commander in the separatist militia Hizbul
Mujahideen (HM). ( "21-Jul-16 World View -- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue"
)

The number of people killed has now risen to 58, despite a curfew
that's now 31 days old, and there's no end in sight.

Many people believe that Pakistan is stoking the violence and even
providing money and weapons to terror groups in Kashmir. This belief
is supported by the fact that terrorist HM leader Syed Salahuddin is
speaking out, calling Wani a "martyr," and and adding that "Pakistan
is duty bound, morally bound, politically bound and constitutionally
bound to provide concrete, substantial support to the ongoing freedom
struggle on the territory of Kashmir."

It certainly is possible that Pakistan is directly or indirectly
supporting the Kashmir separatists, but it's also true that many
people in Pakistan's Punjab province have friendships with people in
Kashmir, or they're in the same family. They are going to identify
with the people of Kashmir and support them, either indirectly or
directly, at least with moral support.

My article two days ago contained generational histories of India's
1857 Rebellion and the 1947 Partition war. ( "7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')"
)

In both of those cases, there were extremely bloody wars, and they
were completely organic, in the sense that they were not directed by
armies or generals, but rose up from the people. This organic war,
where protests and demonstrations become violent and spiral out of
control are the hallmark of a generational crisis war, the worst and
bloodiest kinds of war. The situation in Kashmir is looking more and
more like this kind of organic war.

Since the 1947 Partition war, there have been three non-crisis wars
fought between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. The terrorist Syed
Salahuddin, quoted above, said on Monday, "I can predict a 4th war
with certainty because Kashmiris are no longer willing to compromise,
come what may." Salahuddin also predicted that this could spiral into
a much larger war, and even become a nuclear war. If the Kashmir
demonstrations become more violent, and begin to look more and more
like what happened in 1857 and 1947, then Salahuddin may turn out to
have been right. New Indian Express and Express Tribune (Pakistan) and First Post


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Balochistan, Quetta,
Bilal Anwar Kasi, Balochistan Bar Association,
Lahore, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, JuA, Assembly of Freedom,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
US State Department, Mark Toner, Zarb-e-Azb,
India, Afghanistan, Husain Haqqani,
India, Kashmir, Burhan Wani, Hizbul Mujahideen, HM,
Syed Salahuddin, 1857 Rebellion, 1947 Partition war

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

*** 10-Aug-16 World View -- China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia massing tanks and troops in Ukraine on northern border of Crimea
  
• China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system
  

****
**** Russia massing tanks and troops in Ukraine on northern border of Crimea
****


Russian marines performing during the Navy Day celebrations in Sevastopol, Crimea, on July 31 (Reuters)

Ukraine is deploying troops and military equipment to the border with
the Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed after invading Ukraine
in 2014, after residents reported a new Russian military buildup in
northern Crimea, including troops, tanks, and other military hardware.
In addition, Russia closed crossing points along the northern border
on Sunday morning, although some of them have been reopened. Gunfire
has also been reported.

Tensions are high because it's not known whether the deployment is a
military exercise, or whether it's the prelude to a new invasion of
Ukraine by Russia's military.

It's worthwhile today to briefly review what happened in 2014.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin said that there were no Russian
troops in Crimea, as Russian troops were invading Crimea. Later,
Putin said would Russia would not annex Crimea, and a few days later,
Russia annexed Crimea. On TV, Putin bragged about repeatedly lying
and completely fooling the West. Putin said there were no Russian
troops in East Ukraine as Russian troops were invading East Ukraine.
Russian separatists in East Ukraine used a Russian-built Buk
surface-to-air missile system to shoot down a passenger plane,
Malaysian Airlines flight 17, killing hundreds of innocent civilians.
The Russians lied, and said that the plane had fallen out of the sky
by itself, or had been struck by a meteor. ( "14-Oct-15 World View -- Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine"
)

So now Russian troops and military equipment are massing on the
northern border of Crimea, and no one doubts that a new invasion of
Ukraine could happen at any time. One thing that we can be sure of is
that whatever Putin and the Russians say will have no relationship to
the truth, except by accident. RFE/RL and Daily Mail (London) and Ukraine Today

****
**** China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system
****

Furious Chinese state media are accusing the South Korean government
of "seditious" moves by attacking the motives of South Koreans who
opposed deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
anti-missile system. According to Xinhua, South Koreans opposing the
THAAD deployment "are being reviled as blind followers of North Korea,
or sycophant betrayers.

The THAAD deployment was triggered by aggressive military development
in North Korea. This year, the North has made its fourth nuclear
missile test, and has conducted numerous long-range missile tests.
The obvious conclusion is that North Korea is developing technology to
launch a nuclear strike against South Korea, Japan, and the United
States. South Korea has rebuffed US requests to deploy THAAD for
years, but recently acquiesced because of the North's nuclear weapon
and long-range missile tests. ( "4-Aug-16 World View -- North Korean missile strikes sea close to Japan, threatening radar base"
)

China has been fuming at South Korea since the announcement, but the
threats in China's media go well demonizing South Korea's government.
Beijing's Global Times advocates counter-measures:

• Cut off economic ties with companies involved with the system
  and ban their products from entering the Chinese market.
  
• Implement sanctions on politicians who advocate deployment.
  
• Target Chinese missile systems to knock out the THAAD system.
  
• End sanctions against North Korea.
  
• Consider joint countermeasures with Russia.

There's little doubt that many South Koreans are becoming panicky
over North Korean nuclear missile systems. So might reasonably
wonder why China is so freaked out over an anti-missile system
to provide protection from those weapons.

Chinese media provides the answer:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The X-band radar can snoop on Chinese and Russian
> territories as it can spot at least 2,000 km. Seoul claims that it
> will adopt the radar with a detectable range of 600-800 km, but
> the mode change can be made at any time in accordance with the
> needs of the U.S military that will operate the THAAD battery in
> South Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In other words, the Chinese are freaking out because THAAD protects
South Korea, Japan and the US not just from North Korean missiles, but
also from Chinese missiles.

China has been preparing to launch a pre-emptive attack on the
United States back at least as far as the 1990s. During the
last 20 years, China has been spending trillions of dollars on
one nuclear missile system after another with no purpose except
to destroy American cities, aircraft carriers, and military bases.

The THAAD anti-missile system, if successful, could force China to
postpone their invasion plans for years, and may also require them to
spend trillions more to reconfigure their missile systems to
defend against THAAD. No wonder their infuriated.

The recent ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration
in the Hague has been a devastating political blow to the Chinese.
The ruling completely eviscerated China's claims in the South China
Sea, and made it clear that China's artificial islands are illegal,
and one of them is actually in waters governed by the Philippines.
Not only that, but some of China's evidence to support it claims turns
out to be delusional or a complete hoax. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea"
)

China's reaction to all this is to become even more militarily
belligerent, not only in the South China Sea but also in the East
China Sea in belligerent confrontations with Japan.

As I've written in the past, China is behaving in a highly emotional,
irrational, panicky, nationalistic manner, issuing delusional and
fabricated evidence to support claims that everybody knows are false
claims. This is what makes China so dangerous, and may cause them to
make some really stupid decisions that will result in a world war,
killing billions of people, and painting themselves as worse than
Hitler's Nazis for decades. Xinhua and Global Times (Beijing) and Council on Foreign Relations


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Vladimir Putin,
Malaysian Airlines flight 17, Buk surface-to-air missile system,
China, South Korea, North Korea, Japan,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD

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100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

(08-09-2016, 11:30 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]These SCO goons are hoping Trump gets in there. It's looking less and less likely. For all her faults HRC is not going to be kind to Moscow and Beijing. They may decide the do unilateral strikes or if not that extreme, at least additional incursions in their near abroad, prior to the election, especially if they realize their Manchurian Candidate is not working out as planned.

If Russia and China Really wanted war, why would they entertain the idea of a Trump Presidency in the first place? They simply would not mention the election if that was the case. Yet Both Chinese and Russian news organs and propaganda organs are very much interested in the current elections here. I don't see how you can say that trump serves Russian interests in Particular. I don't see how a nuclear-armed Germany or a Nuclear-armed Turkey serves the interest of Russia; trump has suggested these ideas. Same thing in Asia, How does a Nuclear-armed Japan Benefit China (Trump has said that Japan in particular should arm itself with nuclear missiles)? However trump has advocated the reorientation of the US military toward building a fortress America. Both Russia and China may support Trump Because under his Administration we would be internally Focused. Thus Russia (and China) may like having more ability to act militarily in their near abroads if trump is elected. However if they really wanted a WW3 those countries would be supporting Hillary Because Hillary would support the hollowing out of the military while further embracing The UN and NATO thus guaranteeing that the US would be sucked into the war first via Russia and China provoking a "Danzig" type pretext for war (analogous to how Hitler wanted all of Poland not just Danzig and the surrounding land route).

Thus I put forth the case that by either clandestinely or overtly supporting trump, Russia and China do not want a larger WW3 because a TRUMP-led America could not be enticed into taking such bait because of the fortress-america policy that Trump has advocated since long before he ran for president, being implemented after he takes office. Since a Trump Presidency eliminates the most likely pretexts for war that either China or Russia could use immediately prior to launching a larger war if they wanted to: The fact that both China and Russia are clandestinely supporting trump indicates the DO NOT want war (at least in the short term: i.e before 2020). You seem to think that in the halls of Russian and Chinese strategic preparations, the near-abroads are the pretexts while the US is the prize. I disagree the respective Near-Abroads seem to be the prize in Russian and Chinese strategic planning. Obviously they don't want us to intervene when they do decide to "reclaim" those regions.

*** 11-Aug-16 World View -- Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China
  
• Japan-China relations 'deteriorate significantly' after repeated Chinese provocations
  

****
**** Vietnam deploys rocket launchers in South China Sea to confront China
****


EXTended Range Artillery (EXTRA) mobile rocket system from Israel Military Industries

Reports indicate that Vietnam is deploying rocket launchers on five of
its bases in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The
launchers have been hidden from aerial surveillance and they have yet
to be armed, but could be made operational with rocket artillery
rounds within two or three days. Vietnam's Foreign Ministry responded
to the reports by saying that the information was "inaccurate,"
without elaborating.

It's believed that Vietnam is deploying a state of the art EXTended
Range Artillery (EXTRA) rocket system that it recently acquired from
Israel Military Industries.

The EXTRA is a highly mobile weapon system and can be installed on
either a truck or in a fixed installation. Vietnam procured the new
mobile rocket launchers specifically with the Spratlys in mind given
that it requires little logistical support -- e.g., it only uses a
small lightweight radar system—and has very low maintenance costs
(EXTRA rounds come in disposable sealed canisters).

EXTRA is equipped with a GPS inertial navigation system that makes it
highly accurate up to a range of 150 km (93 miles), with different 150
kg (330 lb) warheads that can carry high explosives or bomblets to
attack multiple targets simultaneously. Operated with targeting
drones, they could strike both ships and land targets. That puts
China's artificial islands, and the military installations installed
on them, within range of the rocket system.

Vietnam and China have fought several wars in the last few decades.
In a 1979 border war, China invaded Vietnam with 80,000 soldiers.
They were driven back by the Vietnamese within six weeks, killing as
many as 50,000 people on both sides. In their retreat, the Chinese
implemented a barbaric scorched-earth policy, destroying every
building and killing every animal. In 1974, China seized the Paracels
by force from Vietnam, and in 1988, Chinese naval forces defeated the
Vietnamese navy at Johnson South Reef.

So it's not an exaggeration to say that both sides are preparing for
war, and in the current highly tense atmosphere, with surging
nationalism and xenophobia on both sides, a war could start any day.
Reuters and The Diplomat and Israel Military Industries

****
**** Japan-China relations 'deteriorate significantly' after repeated Chinese provocations
****

In moves that are apparently intended to provoke the Japanese, Chinese
coast guard vessels have been entering waters surrounding the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. The Senkaku Islands are governed by Japan,
but are claimed by China as their sovereign territory.

According to Japan's coast guard, 13 coast guard vessels sails through
Japanese waters surrounding the Senkakus on Tuesday. This has
happened already four times this month, and Tuesday's incident was the
third day in a row. It's believed that some of the ships contain
military forces.

Japan's government summoned the Chinese envoy to launch a formal
objection. According to Japan's foreign minister Fumio Kishida:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The situation surrounding the Japan-China
> relationship is significantly deteriorating. We cannot accept
> that [China] is taking actions that unilaterally raise
> tensions."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

At Wednesday's US US State Dept. press briefing, spokesman Elizabeth
Trudeau made a point of issuing a statement in defense of Japan:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We continue to closely monitor the situation around
> the Senkaku Islands. We are in close communication with the
> Japanese as allies and are also concerned about the increase of
> Chinese coast guard vessels in the vicinity of the islands. As you
> noted, the U.S. position on the Senkaku Islands, as stated
> previously by the President, is clear and longstanding. The
> Senkaku Islands have been under Japanese administration since the
> reversion of Okinawa in 1972, such they fall within the scope of
> the article 5 of the 1960 U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation
> and Security. We oppose any unilateral action that seeks to
> undermine Japan’s administration of the Senkaku
> islands."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The statement contains an explicit reference to article 5 of the 1960
U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. According to
that treaty, US armed forces will defend Japan if China takes any
military action against Japan or the Senkakus. Nikkei and BBC and US State Dept.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, China, South China Sea, Spratly Islands,
Israel Military Industries, EXTended Range Artillery, EXTRA,
Japan, Senkaku Islands, Diaoyu Islands, Fumio Kishida, Elizabeth Trudeau,
1960 U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security

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Xers and Millies are rejecting boomer tyranny. We will not be the boomers idealized "defenders of the weak". The countries that have leeched off america are shaking at their boots at the prospect of the new america soon to be ushered in by TRUMP. Meanwhile the countries that actually matter support the idea of Trump "cleaning up" america and reclaiming it from globalist parasites. Globalist bootlicker nations and swindlers support Clinton as president as shown by the list in the link below. The more autonomous a nation is the less appealing Clinton in those nations.

http://www.mrctv.org/blog/poll-clinton-h...ump-mexico

I Posted this elsewhere on the forum, but I'm posting this again here for discussion Purposes.

Compare what the boomers created with what their predecessors the missionaries/lost built and you can clearly see the subpar performance of the boomers. The last saeculum had strong leaders like the Kaiser, Hindenburg, Ludendorff, Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Chiang, Antonescu, Pavelic, Tito, Kim-il-sung, Ho Chi Minh, Gloriu-dej, Ceaucescu, Sukarno, Suharto. While the boomers and their selfish "awakening ideals" rammed worldwide mediocrity down our throats. Only in remote regions of the world did the old glorious values survive in leaders such as Idi Amin, Khomeini, Saddam, Milosevic, Tudjman. The first 2/3rds of the 20th century (and basically the entire century in remote regions such as the middle east, the balkans and southeast Asia) was a "bureaucratic adventurer's" Dream world: Adventurers such as Beria, Himmler, Heydrich, Tsuji, Shiro Ishii, Lin Biao, and countless lower ranking Generals and Colonels from numerous different countries (many of these countries often warring against each other) over the decades were able to make names for themselves as liquidators: The worldwide selfish Boomer awakening put an end to all of this. THIS is the era the TRUMP movement seeks to restore. One of the worst mistakes ever made in world history was not making peace with Germany in late 1944/Beginning of 1945, had that occured the postwarsaeculum would have been a very different one entirely. The Boomers would have never been able to ram their disgusting worldview that says that true masculinity is evil and that the feminized and the mediocrity of "democratic globalism" would never have occured. The west would have never been infected by the boomers disgusting selfishness, and their identification with ancient israel and post-victorian britain. Roman empire inspired neoclassicism would probably been far more popular particularly in regards to its attitudes toward Masculinity and attitudes toward war. Do not see the trump movement in isolation, All those forces worldwide that lost out when the Boomers decided to wreck civilization are backing Trump. Assad, Putin, Xi, and Khamenei are doing civilization a great service and Trump when he is elected will join them. Regarding the TRUMP movement; Think of the Joker from the movie "the dark knight" and you will see the leading edge of the manifestation, TRUMP 2016.

(08-11-2016, 10:55 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: [ -> ]> Although they are nominally anti-Communist, I would not be
> surprised to learn that a sub set of Vietnamese American high tech
> professionals are assisting Vietnam with war preparations.
>

You mention two groups -- the Vietnamese and the high tech
professionals assisting Vietnam. Which of the two groups are you
saying are anti-communist?

*** 12-Aug-16 World View -- Fears grow that a new Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Fears grow that a new Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent
  
• US forces in Libya may declare victory over ISIS this week
  

****
**** Fears grow that a new Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent
****


Russians have been talking for years about a possible attack on the port city of Mariupol, and then continuing on to Odessa.

As we reported earlier this week,

Russia has been massing troops, tanks and other military hardware in
Ukraine on northern border of the Crimea Peninsula of Ukraine, and
closing crossing points.

On Thursday, Russia's FSB (successor to the KGB) issued this
explanation:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"FSB Russia prevented the commission in the Republic
> of Crimea of terrorist attacks prepared by the Chief Directorate
> of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
>
> The Federal Security Service prevented the commission of terrorist
> attacks in the Republic of Crimea prepared by the General
> Directorate of the Ministry of Intelligence of Defense of Ukraine,
> the targets of which have been identified as critical
> infrastructure and livelihood of the peninsula.
>
> The purpose of the sabotage and terrorist attacks is to
> destabilize the social and political situation in the region
> during the preparation and conduct of elections of the federal and
> regional authorities.
>
> As a result of operational search activities on the night of the
> 6th of August 7th, 2016, in the region of the Autonomous Republic
> of Crimea discovered a group of saboteurs. During the arrest of
> the terrorists, a firefight occurred and a Russian FSB officer
> died. At the site of clashes, investigators found 20 improvised
> explosive devices with a total capacity of more than 40 kilograms
> of TNT, ammunition and special means of initiation, regular and
> anti-magnetic mines, as well as grenades and special weapons,
> consisting of armed special units of the Armed Forces of
> Ukraine."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

We've now had several years of statements by Putin and Russia's
government about Ukraine and Syria that turned out to be total lies,
so we can reasonably assume that most of the FSB statement is a total
lie. I'm not saying that everything that Ukraine's government says is
truth. All I'm saying is that, after several years of an unending
stream of total lies and hundreds of Russian internet trolls paid to
lie, we can be certain that anything that comes from Russia's
government is total BS, with no relation to the truth except by
accident.

Large quantities of Russian military hardware are being deployed in
Crimea, far more than would be justified by a single gunfight, or even
a single terrorist attack. Columns of armored personnel carriers,
military ambulances, fuel tankers, trucks, signals and engineering
vehicles have been video-recorded in the port town of Kerch, which
handles ferry arrivals from Russia. They have also been spotted in the
Crimean regional capital of Simferopol, and outside a military
training range near the southern town of Feodosia. Internet services
have been cut in northern Crimea, with no explanation.

Ukraine is denying Russia's accusations, but in reaction to Russia's
actions, Ukraine's army is reinforcing units in Kherson, the region
just across the Crimean border.

One possible target of a new Russian invasion would be an attack on
the port city of Mariupol. As you can see from the above map, Kerch
is separated from the Russian mainland by a narrow body of water that
links the Sea of Asov with the Black Sea. In 2014, Russia had
announced the intention to build a land bridge connecting Kerch with
the mainland, but that has never happened, and so people, supplies,
and military equipment have to depend on ferries to reach Crimea from
Russia.

From Russia's point of view, the best solution would be a new invasion
of Ukraine targeting Mariupol, and then to take control of the entire
land border with the Sea of Asov. That would allow Russia to deliver
people, supplies and military equipment overland in cars, trucks and
buses. From there, Russian forces could continue westward to Odesa
and then on to Transnistria, an enclave in eastern Moldova with a
heavy Russian population. ( "5-Nov-14 World View -- Russian troops approach Ukraine's border, threaten port city Mariupol"
)

It's always wise to remember that Russian troops are still occupying
eastern Ukraine, and Russian separatist leaders in 2014 repeatedly
threatened a complete secession of the region from Ukraine, so that
Russia can annex the entire region just as Crimea was annexed.

Nobody knows what Russia is planning, and not a word they say can be
believed, but there is something going on, and we'll have to wait and
see what it is. Daily Beast and VOA and Guardian (London)

****
**** US forces in Libya may declare victory over ISIS this week
****

The following analysis is from the American Enterprise Institute
(AEI):

U.S.-backed forces in Libya may declare victory over the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Sirte this week, but a
victory over ISIS in Sirte may lead to more conflict in the long term
and ultimately strengthen actors that pose a direct threat to
U.S. national security.

The fall of Sirte is imminent. Libyan militias allied with the
UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) seized ISIS’s primary
remaining stronghold on August 10, along with other key ISIS positions
in the city center. U.S. air support and Special Operations Forces
allowed the GNA-allied militias to overcome ISIS’s defenses. The
militias will continue to combat pockets of resistance in the city but
will likely declare total victory over ISIS in Sirte within the coming
week.

The fall of Sirte is not an existential threat to ISIS in Libya,
however. ISIS militants continue to operate openly in northern Libya,
including in Benghazi in the east and near Sabratha in the
northwest. Nor has ISIS lost the capabilities that it based in
Sirte. Approximately 350 ISIS fighters remain in the city, but the
majority of ISIS’s fighting force has withdrawn to southern Libya or
infiltrated civilian populations. ISIS may reconstitute in a safe
haven in southern Libya, from which it will resume attacks in northern
Libya and attack into neighboring Tunisia and Algeria. AEI Critical Threats


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, FSB, Ukraine, Crimea, Mariupol, Kerch,
Kherson, Sea of Asov, Black Sea,
Libya, Sirte, Government of National Accord, GNA, Benghazi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

Quote:... " Fears grow that a new Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent"...

I would not be surprised to see Putin move while the USA is distracted by Presidential politics.

*** 13-Aug-16 World View -- Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces
  
• Any of Thailand's three major ethnic groups could be the perpetrators
  

****
**** Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces
****


A supporter of former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra holds a rose as she arrives at a polling station during the constitutional referendum in Bangkok. (Getty)

Thailand is on high alert following a total of 13 bombing incidents
that killed four people and injured 35 others in five southern
provinces between Wednesday and Friday morning. The bombings occurred
at beach resorts in southern Thailand. Four people were killed and 35
others, including foreign tourists, were injured.

The characteristics of the bombings were significant different from
those usually perpetrated by jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda or the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Instead of being suicide bombings, they were improvised explosive
devices (IEDs) triggered remotely by a mobile phone signal. Some
analysts are saying that they were low-explosive devices detonated in
times and places so that they would cause the enormous casualties that
typical ISIS bombings do.

Thus, it's believed that the bombings were perpetrated by a domestic
group with the objective of damaging Thailand's tourist industry,
which accounts for about 10% of the country's GDP. Bangkok Post and CNN

****
**** Any of Thailand's three major ethnic groups could be the perpetrators
****


Map of southern Thailand showing sites of the bombings (CNN)

There are three major demographic groups in Thailand, and any one of
the three could be responsible for the bombings.

The two we've been writing about most in the last few years are
competing for political power.

The "yellow shirt" market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite
minority live mostly in central Thailand around Bangkok. They're a
"market-dominant minority," meaning that even though they're a
minority, they control most of the money and businesses in the
country, especially in wealthy Bangkok.

The "red shirt" dark-skinned Thai-Thai live in rural areas in northern
and northeastern Thailand. Many are farmers, but they also do most of
the menial labor that the elites don't want to do, while they vastly
outnumber the yellow shirt Thai-Chinese elite. The Thai-Thai are
represented by the Pheu Thai political party, which has won the last
five elections because of their majority. The yellow shirts used a
variety of techniques, from violent protests to army coups, to
overturn these elections. The Thai-Thai hero Thaksin Shinawatra was
prime minister until 2006, when an army coup forced him out of office,
and he now lives in exile in Dubai. His sister, Yingluck Shinawatra,
then took his place and became prime minister in 2011, until the
Constitutional Court forced her to step down by finding her guilty of
abusing her power.

Incidentally, my favorite story in this saga occurred in December
2008. ( "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war"
.) A Thaksin
ally, Samak Sundaravej, had been elected prime minister. After
violent protests by the yellow shirts, he was forced to step down,
because a court removed him from office because he had had a cooking
show on tv, and that was somehow considered a conflict of interest.
You just can't make this stuff up.

Thailand's army seized power in May 2014,
presumably in a victory for the yellow shirts, to prevent
another Thai-Thai political victory. Then, just last week, a
referendum in Thailand approved a new constitution put forth by the
military, in a campaign in which it was against the law to campaign
against the referendum, and one could be jailed for doing so. So, not
surprisingly, the referendum passed. According to analysts, the new
constitution is designed to keep the Thai-Thai political party from
winning the next election, so that the elites will remain in power.

So a group of red shirt or yellow shirt activists could be the
perpetrators of the bombings of the last three days. Both groups have
expressed opposition to the constitution that was just approved, and
both groups have used protests to shut down Bangkok's business and
retail district, in order to damage the Thai economy.

The third possible perpetrators are the separatist Malay insurgents,
living in southern Thailand, in the geographic region where the
bombings actually took place. Thailand is primarily Buddhist, but the
southern portion of the country, bordering Malaysia, is Muslim. An Islamist insurgency began in the south in 2004,
and repeated terrorist attacks have killed thousands.

According to one analyst, one of the towns chosen for the bombings Hua
Hin may have been chosen because there's a large community of retirees
from Europe living there, giving the bombings a maximum international
significance. Hua Hin is also the Thai king's favorite residence
outside of Bangkok.

Thailand's last generational crisis war was the 1970s "killing fields"
war of Cambodia, the country next door, putting both countries into a
generational Awakening-Unraveling era. All three of these groups --
the Buddhist Thai-Chinese and Thai-Thai, and the Muslim Malays -- are
displaying typical behaviors for these eras, including peaceful
protests that turn violent. The army is also using typical behaviors
that we've seen in other countries, including Bangladesh, Burundi,
Syria, Zimbabwe, and others, by using both political means and
violence. The pattern will continue with increasing protests, riots
and violence by protest groups, with the army will respond with
increasing political repression and violence, with a continuing cycle
of violence that can last for decades before another ethnic war breaks
out. Chatham House and BBC


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin Shinawatra,
yellow shirt, Thai-Chinese, red shirt, Thai-Thai, Pheu Thai,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
al-Qaeda, Samak Sundaravej, Hua Hin, Cambodia, killing fields

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe