Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

OA is a fiction website in form of an encyclopedia written in the 120th century. I like it very much. The more remote eras are pure science fiction, but the nearest future is very realistic.

What do you think about their timeline for the 21st century?

https://orionsarm.com/eg-topic/45b2afc424975

The more interesting bits:

57 (2026) In the spirit of optimism NASA, Russian, Chinese, Japanese and European Space Agencies and a consortium of private corporations begin work on the astonishingly expensive international Mars Mission Profile. - a parallel to space enthusiasm during the previous high

90s (2060s) - Especially among the educated classes, traditional religions continue to be usurped by younger, more exotic beliefs, such as Sanandism, Babaism, Cosmism, Transhumanism[/url], etc. - Looks like a belated awakening. I would argue that will happen in the 2050s, or even late 2040s.

110's (2080s) - Conventional nation-states decline at an increasing (though still slow) rate as commercial, virtual, and micro- states become more common. - An unraveling

119 (2088) - An internet based virtual world war centered on North America which shifts a number of assets and influence from previous geopolitical and corporate powers to new players. - The beginning of next crisis

Do you think they used S-H theory?

It looks like a view of the view of the future completely dominated by technology. This is typical of old-age futurism. There's no doubt technology will be reaching levels we can only imagine now, just as it has already done. However, what really determines human life are the status of human social and spiritual intelligence.

In their first entry for 30 AT (30 years after Tranquility, the Moon landing in July 1969), they say that the 9-11 attacks changed politics for the next half century, which is incorrect, and then there's no more entries about politics, as far as I can see so far. So I see no connection to S&H theory, since this centers on social moods rather than just technology. What S&H say is that civic generations, such as the current Millennial Generation coming into prominence now, are well-informed and inclined toward technology, and so it's clear that this site is likely run by Millennials, and that they are not well versed in the human potential movement and its vision of the future that was being developed around 0 AT. Even most Boomers now seem to only remember the music and largely forget the visions of the 2T, but which are the real springboard for a meaningful future.

I see a statement on this OA site that technology will create a new kind of intelligent life which will surpass the human, but then it goes on to describe changes to human life. Another powerful trend, which I saw described on 60 Minutes in their report on the MIT Media Center, a center of innovation, is that humans are becoming able to replace disabilities with limbs that we can operate and feel just like organic ones. This is related to the trend called transhumanism, in which it's not so much that our machines will take over, but that humans will become machines like the bionic man and woman, and yet retain our own will and consciousness. This could also increase lifespans almost indefinitely, perhaps. What is missing in both scenarios, of course, is what progress we can make in understanding consciousness, not as a machine, but as the souls which Spirit and evolution have endowed us, and what potentials for growth they have.

Quote:What S&H say is that civic generations, such as the current Millennial Generation coming into prominence now, are well-informed and inclined toward technology, and so it's clear that this site is likely run by Millennials, and that they are not well versed in the human potential movement and its vision of the future that was being developed around 0 AT. Even most Boomers now seem to only remember the music and largely forget the visions of the 2T, but which are the real springboard for a meaningful future.

I think the site's leaders are Xers, but they might be proto-millenials since they are computer nerds rather than punkish anarchists. I remember some derogatory comments about boomers and flower power on the site, which is I suppose more typical of Xers than of millennials. Apart of the leaders, there are probably many millennial editors since OA is a collaborative project (another millennial trait).

I wouldn't say the 2T is forgotten. Mainstreaming marijuana, LGBT, support for the Palestinians, radical feminism and environmentalism all started with the boomers' countercultural movement. These trends still enjoy worldwide popularity. However, New Age has not fared well. It never matched the influence that secular humanism and Christianity have. It was present in pop culture until the early 2000s, but now it's almost gone. Words like energy, vibration or crystal are sometimes used in their New Age meanings, but few people do it in earnest.

There is religion and spirituality in OA and some faiths seem to have strong Hindu influence, which is a similarity to New Age. But these aren't mainstream in the fictional world of 10000 AT. Most popular faith in OA seems to be worship of archailects, or super-intelligent machines whose IQ is probably measured in millions.

Quote: see a statement on this OA site that technology will create a new kind of intelligent life which will surpass the human, but then it goes on to describe changes to human life. Another powerful trend, which I saw described on 60 Minutes in their report on the MIT Media Center, a center of innovation, is that humans are becoming able to replace disabilities with limbs that we can operate and feel just like organic ones. This is related to the trend called transhumanism, in which it's not so much that our machines will take over, but that humans will become machines like the bionic man and woman, and yet retain our own will and consciousness.

Yes, artificial intelligence and transhumanism are the cornerstones of OA.

Spirituality and transcendental consciousness movements have traditionally not fared well during 4Ts and 1Ts, when according to the S&H model nomad and civic generations are most prominent. So it's not unexpected that new age movements have faded in popularity as the 4T deepens.

There are two corollaries to this, however. The first is that it will return to prominence once the artist and prophet generations return to prominence. It will not matter what the failures of older awakenings were; the need will be stronger than ever.

The second is that this prevalent materialism is a predominant force in the United States, more so than in all other cultures, and has really predominated through all turnings here. My contention is that this imbalance cannot continue if this country is to survive intact. Whether this situation can be remedied in this saeculum seems doubtful now, but that was the real goal of the consciousness revolution. It was meant to be a permanent change in our mindset.

A healthy society always has a strong spirituality. It cannot survive without it, and in a healthy society it does not vanish in the muddle of an unravelling turning and the darkness of a material crisis. It may have often been traditional in the past, but it always contained a strong mystical element within it, as Christianity did in its heyday. Now what remains of that religion is an empty shell. Non-traditional or at least less-narrow minded spirituality is the only alternative available in a society in which the old nostrums and beliefs are not convincing, except to superstitious fanatics.

Thanks Bill for your participation and welcome addition to our dialogue. Best wishes to you.

Bill the Piper, I have looked at Orions Arm from time to time. You may also be interested in the Future Timeline forums. Or the YouTube videos of Kurzgesagt, or Isaac Arthur.

Sorokin expected society to move into a new Ideational period, with the old Sensate world view turning dysfunctional. Frustratingly, the possibility of a "Miixed" period was mentioned, but not really elaborated on. Yes, I suspect that we may be moving into such a period. But the details seem obscure.

(09-18-2018, 12:49 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: [ -> ]Bill the Piper, I have looked at Orions Arm from time to time.  You may also be interested in the Future Timeline forums.  Or the YouTube videos of Kurzgesagt, or Isaac Arthur.

Funny, I did once post in the Future Timeline forums, and I was flamed for mentioning the S-H theory. What I wrote was that there will be an awakening around 2050s, and that the new idealists will rebel against millennial social media craze, probably embracing some sort of nature-oriented ideology. So, while for Eric the Green I'm too technology obsessed, for the FT blokes I wasn't technology obsessed enough!

Eric the Green Wrote:Spirituality and transcendental consciousness movements have traditionally not fared well during 4Ts and 1Ts, when according to the S&H model nomad and civic generations are most prominent. So it's not unexpected that new age movements have faded in popularity as the 4T deepens.

There are two corollaries to this, however. The first is that it will return to prominence once the artist and prophet generations return to prominence. It will not matter what the failures of older awakenings were; the need will be stronger than ever.

I agree, but why should the new idealists go back to boomer spirituality? Did the boomers go back to missionary spirituality?
I expect the 2T to be a completely new thing, only with some core elements, like interest in the inner space of the human heart/soul, or love for nature, which have been constant since the Romantic era. Also, the new idealists will probably have a strong connection with the Cosmos, just like OA editors predict. By 2050, we will have proofs of life on other planets, even if this means bacteria on Mars or a few scattered signals from 61 Virginis, it will still make them view themselves as parts of a cosmic community of living beings.

(09-18-2018, 06:08 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-18-2018, 12:49 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: [ -> ]Bill the Piper, I have looked at Orions Arm from time to time.  You may also be interested in the Future Timeline forums.  Or the YouTube videos of Kurzgesagt, or Isaac Arthur.

Funny, I did once post in the Future Timeline forums, and I was flamed for mentioning the S-H theory. What I wrote was that there will be an awakening around 2050s, and that the new idealists will rebel against millennial social media craze, probably embracing some sort of nature-oriented ideology. So, while for Eric the Green I'm too technology obsessed, for the FT blokes  I wasn't technology obsessed enough!

Eric the Green Wrote:Spirituality and transcendental consciousness movements have traditionally not fared well during 4Ts and 1Ts, when according to the S&H model nomad and civic generations are most prominent. So it's not unexpected that new age movements have faded in popularity as the 4T deepens.

There are two corollaries to this, however. The first is that it will return to prominence once the artist and prophet generations return to prominence. It will not matter what the failures of older awakenings were; the need will be stronger than ever.

I agree, but why should the new idealists go back to boomer spirituality? Did the boomers go back to missionary spirituality?
I expect the 2T to be a completely new thing, only with some core elements, like interest in the inner space of the human heart/soul, or love for nature, which have been constant since the Romantic era. Also, the new idealists will probably have a strong connection with the Cosmos, just like OA editors predict. By 2050, we will have proofs of life on other planets, even if this means bacteria on Mars or a few scattered signals from 61 Virginis, it will still make them view themselves as parts of a cosmic community of living beings.

Boomer spirituality had much in common with Missionary spirituality. Really though, we're talking 2T to 2T, without restricting this to generations; especially including also the Silents and Progressives. Late wave civics were also involved. New Age and New Thought have much in common, and New Age descends from Theosophy, which is from the Third Great Awakening (1886-1908) (aka the social gospel awakening). Experiments with communes and freer lifestyles and drug experimentation was a feature of that awakening, as it was of the Consciousness Revolution. The Third Great Awakening was also very powerful in Europe, and the art styles of Art Nouveau, post-impressionism and Symbolism are foundational to psychedelia. The back to nature movement was strong and so was the crafts movement in the third great awakening. These returned in our last 2T, as well as having been foundational to the romantic and transcendentalist era 2T. Pop music styles were different, but the later rock styles of the 60s were founded on the earlier ragtime, blues and jazz ones of the 00s. Freedom of expression, including sexually, always expands in 2Ts, and as one historian noted, social and lifestyle freedoms once gained, are never lost in the long run.

The conservation movement was founded in the USA in the 1890s and 1900s, and was in turn the foundation for the environmentalist movement and the Green Party, both founded during the Consciousness Revolution. It looks like your forecast on FT forums is spot on with what I predict. The alpha-wave prophets will rebel against the virtual, tech-bound world and seek to recover the natural world and its ways. My indications are that especially the love of nature and the sensitivity of European art styles like those of the 1880s and 90s will be prominent. I call this next Awakening era the Green Revolution; my reading of the astrological cycles indicates clearly that the next awakening will fulfill the previous one in every way. I agree with more connection to the cosmos, and in the 2T this notion will extend beyond conventional science views to a revival of the previous 2T and 3T's interest in the ETs already visiting us. Awareness of the science that breaks though established materialist paradigms, so prominent in the New Age Movement, will be extended and brought into the light again. Wikipedia and many millennials may be able to suppress it on the internet now in this 4T, but that can't happen in an Awakening.

On the social-political level, there was more difference, but also much in common. The identity politics of civil rights, black power, feminism, gay rights, in the mid/late 1960s all broke through the Jim Crow era, which had remained intact during the 3rd great awakening; except that feminism took right off from where it flourished before. The social gospel populism that was later enshrined in the New Deal 4T was further fulfilled in the 2T Great Society. Strikes were more common than usual in both eras, but labor declined later in the counter-awakening of the Consciousness Revolution. So while rights movements were stronger in the 60s/70s 2T, labor and social legislation, while initially as strong as before, suffered reversals from the conservative counter-awakening--- which was stronger this time, from Goldwater to Reagan. In the third great awakening social gospel era, the same conservative reaction also came in the 1920s, on both scores; but only took hold once the 3T actually had already begun.

In the next 2T I also expect another drive toward a "great society" in which forgotten people rise up and are given new opportunities, and that this will be a worldwide trend this time. The environmental movement will be extended and brought even more to a community level. I already see labor being transformed starting in the current 4T, as computers and robots and free trade are making labor as we knew it obsolete, which also means the Republican anti-welfare trickle-down theories will also be outdated, and redistribution of wealth will be back in vogue instead of put down. Much change along these lines will happen in the next 2T as well. Meanwhile, the counter-awakening of the Jesus movement and the moral majority brought back the traditional authoritarian great awakenings of past 2Ts. So this might be expected again in the 2050s as well.

What we see is continuation and building off of previous awakenings throughout history, skipping from 2nd turning to 2nd turning, and the forgetting of it in 4Ts and 1Ts except for its most traditional and authoritarian or reactionary expressions, along with some degree of fulfillment of 2T social movements in institutional 4T changes. If lifespans are longer in the future, I expect more spirituality and idealism throughout all turnings. Materialism and reaction already continues without interruption through awakenings and unravellings, because we are a materialist society; so the only real change because of longer lifespans in America will be that 2Ts are more continuous through all turnings! Some Boomers like me will continue to keep the spirit alive through this 4T and into the 1T.

(09-18-2018, 11:49 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with more connection to the cosmos, and in the 2T this notion will extend beyond conventional science views to a revival of the previous 2T and 3T's interest in the ETs already visiting us. Awareness of the science that breaks though established materialist paradigms, so prominent in the New Age Movement, will be extended and brought into the light again. Wikipedia and many millennials may be able to suppress it on the internet now in this 4T, but that can't happen in an Awakening.

Ah, UFO!

It is likely that aliens have visited the Earth at some point, given that our planet is 4 billion years old. And we certainly aren't the first intelligent species to evolve in the Galaxy, let alone the Cosmos. But the claims of UFO enthusiasts don't convince me. First of all, what the UFO crew looks like? They are green or grey, almost human shapes. They have sunken cheeks and swollen foreheads (do they have muscles on their foreheads? maybe they use anabolic steroids... but why the spidery arms then?).

OA has a page of aliens discovered by the fictional society of 10000 AT. I think it gives a good idea how different lifeforms can be:

https://www.orionsarm.com/eg-article/4b700fe54fb1f

It is also likely there are alien nano-devices on the Earth, so that other civilizations could observe ours. Chinese sci-fi writer Liu Cixin imagined the sophon - a computer made of a single proton. Such a device could be in your room and you'll never notice anything. Why send flying saucers if one can send nano-spies?

If UFOs did in fact come from other solar systems, they would have understanding of science far above ours, since a civilization capable of interstellar travel must be centuries ahead of us. I mean they would help us unsolved problems in particle physics or something. Yet the astronomer Frank Drake analysed what UFO crews allegedly had to say, and found nothing remarkable.

Quote:On the social-political level, there was more difference, but also much in common. The identity politics of civil rights, black power, feminism, gay rights, in the mid/late 1960s all broke through the Jim Crow era, which had remained intact during the 3rd great awakening; except that feminism took right off from where it flourished before. The social gospel populism that was later enshrined in the New Deal 4T was further fulfilled in the 2T Great Society. Strikes were more common than usual in both eras, but labor declined later in the counter-awakening of the Consciousness Revolution. So while rights movements were stronger in the 60s/70s 2T, labor and social legislation, while initially as strong as before, suffered reversals from the conservative counter-awakening--- which was stronger this time, from Goldwater to Reagan. In the third great awakening social gospel era, the same conservative reaction also came in the 1920s, on both scores; but only took hold once the 3T actually had already begun.

The Missionary awakening had some free love advocates like Emma Goldman, but it also featured movements focused on moral discipline, such as the social purity movement. A similar movement is likely given the hedonistic nature of the millennial cycle. Sometimes we need rights movements, to give us more freedom and make creativity possible. But there are also times when we need discipline to curb animalistic instincts and direct energy towards civilized activities.

Quote:In the next 2T I also expect another drive toward a "great society" in which forgotten people rise up and are given new opportunities, and that this will be a worldwide trend this time. The environmental movement will be extended and brought even more to a community level. I already see labor being transformed starting in the current 4T, as computers and robots and free trade are making labor as we knew it obsolete, which also means the Republican anti-welfare trickle-down theories will also be outdated, and redistribution of wealth will be back in vogue instead of put down. Much change along these lines will happen in the next 2T as well. Meanwhile, the counter-awakening of the Jesus movement and the moral majority brought back the traditional authoritarian great awakenings of past 2Ts. So this might be expected again in the 2050s as well.

Exactly. Technology will make labour obsolete, leaving humans free to enjoy social, artistic and intellectual activity. So, the opposition between capitalism and socialism won't make sense any longer.