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I agree Michael Moore is a good surrogate, although I'm sure he needs more. I heard Moore was indeed acting as one in Iowa already.
Bernie is surging and cutting into Biden's lead, although Biden's numbers remain steady. Bloomberg, Yang and Klobuchar have been slowly rising, while the bottom 4 are falling and may not survive Iowa. After Iowa we may have 8 candidates that will make my database, most for the first time including Biden (Sanders is in it already, of course). In this group of 8 the proportion of favorable to unfavorable-scoring candidates would remain at 3/4, although a few with positive scores will join my list of dropouts. Bennet has had some fundraising success, but his polls remain low including in IA and NH.

Today's realclearpolitics averages:

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden28.7
Sanders23.3
Warren14.9
Bloomberg8.0
Buttigieg7.0
Yang4.9
Klobuchar3.9
Steyer1.9
potential dropouts after Iowa?:
Gabbard0.9
Bennet0.7
Delaney0.3
Patrick0.3

Biden +5.4

California Democratic Primary Berkeley IGS Sanders 26, Biden 15, Warren 20, Buttigieg 7, Bloomberg 6, Klobuchar 5, Yang 4, Steyer 2
Sanders +6

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Emerson Sanders 30, Biden 21, Buttigieg 10, Warren 11, Klobuchar 13, Yang 5, Steyer 5, Gabbard 5
Sanders +9

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 19, Biden 25, Buttigieg 18, Warren 13, Klobuchar 6, Yang 3, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1,
Biden +6

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Herald/FPU Sanders 29, Biden 22, Buttigieg 10, Warren 16, Klobuchar 5, Gabbard 3, Yang 1, Steyer 0, Bennet 2
Sanders +7

Utah Democratic Primary Salt Lake Tribune/Suffolk Sanders 27, Warren 14, Biden 12, Bloomberg 10, Buttigieg 5, Yang 5, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 1, Gabbard 1
Sanders +13

Edit to Add: The quinnipiac national poll came out after the above averages were posted, and changed them a bit. Here's the Q poll:

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Biden 26, Sanders 21, Warren 15, Bloomberg 8, Klobuchar 7, Buttigieg 6, Yang 3, Steyer 2, Gabbard 1, Bennet 0, Delaney 0
Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden 28.1
Sanders 23.8
Warren 14.8
Bloomberg 7.8
Buttigieg 6.8
Yang 4.8
Klobuchar 4.3
Steyer 1.8

Biden +4.3
(the bottom 4 were not included in the realclearpolitics list today.)

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Monmouth Sanders 21, Biden 23, Buttigieg 16, Warren 15, Klobuchar 10, Yang 3, Steyer 4, Gabbard 1
Biden +2

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Iowa State University Sanders 24, Biden 15, Buttigieg 17, Warren 19, Klobuchar 11, Yang 5, Steyer 4, Gabbard 2, Bloomberg 1 Sanders +5

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary St. Pete Polls Biden 41, Sanders 9, Bloomberg 17, Warren 7, Buttigieg 6, Klobuchar 5, Yang 2, Steyer 2, Gabbard Biden +24

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Economist/YouGov Biden 26, Sanders 24, Warren 20, Bloomberg 4, Buttigieg 7, Yang 4, Klobuchar 4, Steyer 1, Gabbard 3, Bennet 0, Patrick 1
Biden +2

President Trump Job Approval Reuters/Ipsos Approve 41, Disapprove 56 Disapprove +15

President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +2

President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 44, Disapprove 53 Disapprove +9

2020 Generic Congressional Vote Economist/YouGov Democrats 48, Republicans 39 Democrats +9
Nothing really changes in the polling, does it?

This may be an oddity of a poll, in view of the state in question.


TEXAS


Quote:Q6. How well do you think Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job,
somewhat poor job, or very poor job?
Percent
Very good job 27
Somewhat good job 20
Somewhat poor job 16
Very poor job 36
Don’t know 1


I am treating "very good" as "strongly approve", "somewhat good" as "approve", "somewhat poor" as "disapprove", and "very poor" as "strongly disapprove". There is no rhetorically-ambiguous "fair" category as in the widely-deprecated EGFP polls. That is 47-52. Texas has not voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1976.

   https://www.texaslyceum.org/assets/docs/...s_DAY1.pdf
Worth posting again is this article:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...aHfj-8FSQ8

Bernie can govern.

Thanks to Maryposa for finding this.
The Senate: Up for re-election in 2020:

Booker, NJ   45/19/36
Capito, WV  41/27/33
Cassidy, LA  47/27/26
Collins, ME   42/7/52
Coons, DE   52/20/28
Cornyn, TX  44/31/25
Cotton, AR  48/21/31
Daines, MT  47/21/31
Durbin, IL  38/25/37
Ernst, IA   37/21/42
Gardner, CO 37/23/40
Graham, SC  48/15/36
Hyde-Smith, MS 47/32/21
Inhofe, OK 46/23/31
Jones, AL  41/24/35
Markey, MA 50/25/25
McConnell, KY 37/13/50
McSally, AZ 37/24/40
Merkley, OR 47/27/28  
Perdue, GA  49/25/26
Peters, MI 37/34/29
Reed, RI 53/23/24
Risch, ID 46/26/28
Rounds, SD 50/26/34
Sasse, NE 45/21/35
Shaheen, NH 52/11/37
Smith, MN 42/29/29
Sullivan, AS 43/24/33
Tillis, NC 34/29/37
Warner, VA 49/21/30

My handicapping: unless the Senate Majority Leader, anyone with 50% or higher disapproval is going down.  Someone in this category is a very poor fit for the state. Anyone in this color (and there is only one -- Susan Collins) is in orange. McConnell may be abrasive and even corrupt, but at least he is in Kentucky, a tough state for a Democrat. If he is going to lose his Senate majority, he might go down. He won't go down otherwise, but the logic behind my thinking is that if he is not the Senate Majority Leader he will be unable to do anything for Kentuckians. I am putting Jones (D-AL) in green, because he is in the worst state in which to defend a Democratic Senate seat.  

Anyone with approval at 50 or higher looks automatic. These are deep red (Republican) or blue (Democratic). Not quite as deep red or blue colors apply to anyone who has at least 45% approval and net 8% or higher. People in this category could easily hold onto their Senate seats despite their Party getting mauled in a landslide. 

In pink or pale blue are those who will go as their state goes, and their state is likely to go as it has in most years. They have positive net approval, but either poor name recognition (so far) or may be approaching the end of the line politically. They win in good years for their Parties.

At this point, negative approval is a very bad sign even if seemingly slight. A reasonably-good challenger can take such a pol down.  Surprisingly, no Democrat -- not even Jones -- is in this category. (Durbin is closer than any other Democrat, but at least he is running for Senate in Illinois, a tough state for a Republican to win a Senate seat in. It has been done, but not often (Mark Kirk). 

I am making no presumptions about the quality of any pol. Much of that for most people is how well a Senator fits his state's political culture. This exercise does not assume how the impeachment of President Trump will turn out for Democrats. Votes involving the impeachment may prove the most important votes of any Senate career. Should President Trump seem vindicated in that state, then the Republican Senator at risk gets into a stronger position or a Democratic Senator ends up in a worse position.  If, however, the acquittal of the President looks like a fix in that state and the Senator votes for some peremptory charade, then that Senator loses.    

There will be open Senate seats in Georgia and Kansas, and I am not handicapping those. My best bet is that 

(1) Collins goes down
(2) Jones more likely loses than wins, but miracles can happen.
(3) McConnell goes down if he has a perception of shadiness or he is doomed to lose the Senate majority
(4) Ernst, Gardner, McSally, and Tillis will more likely all go down to defeat than get re-elected
(5) the open seats in Georgia and Kansas will be a genuine wild cards, and 
(6) other incumbents win.  

I expect no change in political culture in any state from recent years other than generational change in which about 1.5% of the electorate (people over 55) drop out due to death and debility and younger voters replace them. The younger voters are much more D than the voters that they replace. That is a crude model, but one that is in operation. It is not enough to decide any Senate race at this point, and I am not using it as a factor. I am not predicting any scandals, and I cannot yet predict the effect of any Senate votes on impeachment including any vote for a peremptory dismissal.

2020 may be a reverse wave in which weak Senators newly elected in 2014 do not face a wave favoring them.
California Democratic Primary, Jan.30, 2020 KQED/NPR Sanders 30, Biden 15, Warren 16, Buttigieg 8, Bloomberg 4, Yang 5, Klobuchar 3, Gabbard 4, Steyer 2 Sanders +14

If this is right, the huge TV ad campaigns here by Bloomberg and Steyer are falling flat. California Democrats don't want a billionaire as their candidate.

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Franklin & Marshall Biden 22, Warren 14, Sanders 15, Bloomberg 7, Buttigieg 6, Yang 5, Klobuchar 5, Bennet 0, Gabbard 1, Steyer 1 Biden +7

Wednesday, January 29

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Monmouth Sanders 21, Biden 23, Buttigieg 16, Warren 15, Klobuchar 10, Yang 3, Steyer 4, Gabbard 1
Biden +2

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden28.8
Sanders22.5
Warren14.1
Bloomberg8.5
Buttigieg6.0
Yang4.8
Klobuchar4.0
Steyer2.0

Biden +6.3
The wait is over and the primaries officially begin tonight. Here we go!

Polling average in Iowa as of 2/3/20:
Sanders 24.2 (passes 15%)
Biden 20.2 (passes 15%)
Buttigieg 16.4 (passes 15%)
Warren 15.6 (passes 15%)
Klobuchar 8.6
Yang 3.8
Steyer 3.0
Gabbard 1.2

(No data for Bennet or Patrick; Bloomberg is not on the ballot in Iowa.)

Sanders for the win!
(02-03-2020, 11:12 AM)ResidentArtist Wrote: [ -> ]The wait is over and the primaries officially begin tonight. Here we go!

Polling average in Iowa as of 2/3/20:
Sanders 24.2 (passes 15%)
Biden 20.2 (passes 15%)
Buttigieg 16.4 (passes 15%)
Warren 15.6 (passes 15%)
Klobuchar 8.6
Yang 3.8
Steyer 3.0
Gabbard 1.2

(No data for Bennet or Patrick; Bloomberg is not on the ballot in Iowa.)

Sanders for the win!

-- well Buttcheat sure threw a wrench in that. Bernie is leading the popular vote however Smile
realclearpolitics voting average for Feb.5, 2020

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden27.0
Sanders21.8
Warren14.4
Bloomberg10.6
Buttigieg7.0
Klobuchar4.0
Yang3.6
Steyer2.2

Biden +5.2
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/

New Hampshire Primary
Poll Date Sample Sanders Biden Buttigieg Warren Klobuchar Gabbard Yang Steyer Spread
RCP Average 1/15 - 2/4 -- 25.6 17.6 14.1 13.7 7.2 4.8 3.9 3.3 Sanders +8.0

Suffolk 2/3 - 2/4 500 LV 24 15 15 10 6 5 3 5 Sanders +9
Emerson 2/2 - 2/4 500 LV 32 13 17 11 11 6 6 2 Sanders +15
St. Anselm 1/29 - 2/2 491 LV 19 19 14 11 11 3 4 5 Tie
Herald 1/29 - 2/1 454 LV 31 24 8 17 4 3 1 0 Sanders +7
UMass Lowell 1/28 - 1/31 400 LV 23 22 12 19 6 5 2 6 Sanders +1
WCVB-TV 1/17 - 1/29 500 LV 25 20 12 17 5 5 4 5 Sanders +5
NBC/Marist 1/20 - 1/23 697 LV 22 15 17 13 10 6 5 3 Sanders +5
WBUR/MassINC 1/17 - 1/21 426 LV 29 14 17 13 6 5 5 2 Sanders +12
CNN/UNH 1/15 - 1/23 516 LV 25 16 15 12 6 5 5 2 Sanders +9
All New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Polling Data
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6276.html


With 62 percent of the vote in, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg is narrowly leading the Iowa caucus state delegate equivalent totals, while Sen. Bernie Sanders has received the most votes. There’s obviously a lot left to count, but we can still draw some broad conclusions. Neither Sen. Elizabeth Warren nor former Vice President Joe Biden seems likely to win, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s last-minute surge seems to have come up short.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl...42318.html

No change with 86% of the vote in.
I do not predict polling results. Polls from this weekend will show how the whitewash of this President goes.
(02-05-2020, 10:07 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]I do not predict polling results. Polls from this weekend will show how the whitewash of this President goes.

Then I'll predict.  Trump gets an acquittal bump, which fades pretty fast.  Soon, he'll be back to being his same old outrageous self, and the Republicans will be dismayed but fully supportive.
With 96% of the vote in Iowa, Sanders leads the vote count in both the first and second round, but Buttigieg still has a margin of 3 in their delegate equivalence number:

candidate, delegates, % of delegate equivalents, delegate equivalents
Pete Buttigieg 11 26.2% 550

Bernie Sanders 11 26.1% 547

Elizabeth Warren 5 18.2% 381

Joe Biden 0 15.8% 331

Source: The Associated Press.

POPULAR VOTE (second round)
IOWA DEL. %?
Unlike other states, Iowa doesn't choose a winner by the popular vote. Instead, candidates amass state delegates, based on caucus site results.

Buttigieg 42,235 26.2%

Sanders 44,753 26.1%

Warren 34,312 18.2%

Biden 23,051 15.8%

Klobuchar 20,525 12.2%
96.94%* of precincts reporting (1,711 / 1,765)

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/

First round popular vote:

Iowa 2020 Presidential Democratic Caucus Round 1
Last updated: 2/6/2020, 1:27:11 PM
CANDIDATE VOTES PERCENT
Bernie Sanders 42,672 24.74%
Pete Buttigieg 36,718 21.28%
Elizabeth Warren 32,007 18.55%
Joe Biden 25,699 14.90%
Amy Klobuchar 21,896 12.69%
Andrew Yang 8,660 5.02%
Tom Steyer 3,001 1.74%
Uncommitted 955 0.55%
Tulsi Gabbard 326 0.19%
Michael Bloomberg 214 0.12%
Other 158 0.09%
Michael Bennet 146 0.08%
Deval Patrick 49 0.03%
John K Delaney 9 0.01%
96.94% reporting (1711 of 1765 precincts) | 172,510 total votes
https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-cau...tes-2020-2

Some "satellite" caucuses are still left to count, which Sanders thinks will put him in the lead in the delegate equivalents count.
(02-06-2020, 04:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]With 96% of the vote in Iowa, Sanders leads the vote count in both the first and second round, but Buttigieg still has a margin of 3 in their delegate equivalence number:

candidate, delegates, % of delegate equivalents, delegate equivalents
Pete Buttigieg 11 26.2% 550

Bernie Sanders 11 26.1% 547

Elizabeth Warren 5 18.2% 381

Joe Biden 0 15.8% 331

Source: The Associated Press.

POPULAR VOTE (second round)
IOWA DEL. %?
Unlike other states, Iowa doesn't choose a winner by the popular vote. Instead, candidates amass state delegates, based on caucus site results.

Buttigieg 42,235 26.2%

Sanders 44,753 26.1%

Warren 34,312 18.2%

Biden 23,051 15.8%

Klobuchar 20,525 12.2%
96.94%* of precincts reporting (1,711 / 1,765)

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/

First round popular vote:

Iowa 2020 Presidential Democratic Caucus Round 1
Last updated: 2/6/2020, 1:27:11 PM
CANDIDATE VOTES PERCENT
Bernie Sanders 42,672 24.74%
Pete Buttigieg 36,718 21.28%
Elizabeth Warren 32,007 18.55%
Joe Biden 25,699 14.90%
Amy Klobuchar 21,896 12.69%
Andrew Yang 8,660 5.02%
Tom Steyer 3,001 1.74%
Uncommitted 955 0.55%
Tulsi Gabbard 326 0.19%
Michael Bloomberg 214 0.12%
Other 158 0.09%
Michael Bennet 146 0.08%
Deval Patrick 49 0.03%
John K Delaney 9 0.01%
96.94% reporting (1711 of 1765 precincts) | 172,510 total votes
https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-cau...tes-2020-2

Some "satellite" caucuses are still left to count, which Sanders thinks will put him in the lead in the delegate equivalents count.

-- it appears Groper Joe performed par 4 the course- he always finishes 3rd or 4th in lA. But will we know 4 sure due 2 Buttcheat' app. Perez is requesting a recount, which is fine so long as it's done independently & under the watchful eyes of Bernie's lawyers.
Slow Joe was not a factor in his previous campaigns, which I don't include in my database. He was far less known then and he barely registered. He was like one of these 19 candidates who dropped out before Iowa this year. Now it seems he may be too old and past his prime, and the voters are grasping at straws and voting for an empty suit because he's young and charming. If he is nominated, I will be in the difficult position of predicting that the worst president ever will win, and hoping that I'm wrong. But, the Democrats are experts at nominating losers for president. They have done it over and over again. I hope Sanders has the chops to hold him back, or that Biden finally somehow finds his energy and sharpness again.

Sanders apparently lost the count that the media is fixated on by 2 votes. But he won both actual voting rounds decisively, and his actual delegate count is tied with Buttigieg. But that was enough to give Little Boy Pete a big bump over Biden.
Iowa is a weird bird in its caucuses. It can sort things out at times, mostly by deciding what incumbents drop out. Maybe a Governorship or a Senate seat isn't so bad after all.

It could be that the attempt to smear Joe Biden through his son worked. Let us hope that the November election does not result with millions of people seeing a close election that Biden would have won but Trump won against someone with evident flaws, worst of all with the GOP consolidating strength in both Houses of Congress (including a House majority) that sets America up for a right-wing dictatorship. Republicans seem so far to have more ability to play down bigger scandals because as authoritarian right-wingers they more tolerate roguish behavior in the name of power.

I still want to believe that who wins the Democratic nomination, no matter who, will defeat the most despotic, corrupt, demagogic, and cruel President ever -- one who can start exacting revenge upon anyone who gets in his way.

So far Trump has been far more effective in forcing lockstep obedience from Republicans out of fear. Trump has yet to faze Democrats. Maybe it is harder to intimidate people of principle on things that matter.
The Democratic presidential debate is going locally up against the WWE's Smackdown.  Do you think to increase ratings they should arrange a tag team event?   Wink
(02-07-2020, 05:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The Democratic presidential debate is going locally up against the WWE's Smackdown.  Do you think to increase ratings they should arrange a tag team event?   Wink

I actually watched some of the debate.  Typically, they are so staged that watching is a sleep aid, but there was some fire this time.  Good!  I'm unaware of the WWE performance, so I'll not comment on that.  Tongue
(02-08-2020, 09:40 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-07-2020, 05:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The Democratic presidential debate is going locally up against the WWE's Smackdown.  Do you think to increase ratings they should arrange a tag team event?   Wink

I actually watched some of the debate.  Typically, they are so staged that watching is a sleep aid, but there was some fire this time.  Good!  I'm unaware of the WWE performance, so I'll not comment on that.  Tongue

No? I wanted to see Bernie Sanders getting fake body slammed by the Undertaker. Wink
(02-08-2020, 10:09 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-08-2020, 09:40 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-07-2020, 05:48 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The Democratic presidential debate is going locally up against the WWE's Smackdown.  Do you think to increase ratings they should arrange a tag team event?   Wink

I actually watched some of the debate.  Typically, they are so staged that watching is a sleep aid, but there was some fire this time.  Good!  I'm unaware of the WWE performance, so I'll not comment on that.  Tongue

No?  I wanted to see Bernie Sanders getting fake body slammed by the Undertaker. Wink

His best: a quick upper body hug by Joe Biden.  That was the extent of physical "action", at least in the part I saw.  FWIW, Amy Klobuchar has some fiery rhetoric to conclude the evening.  I'm not sure it mattered, but it was inspiring.  If she tanks again, she can say she went down fighting.