Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

Full Version: Election 2020
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
The current polling map for July 22 according to fivethirtyeight.com, using 270towin map to share here and for states with no polling. +-3= tossup, 3-9 leaning, 9-15 likely, 15+ solid. (one poll put Arkansas as +2 Trump, but that's only one poll this year, so I am keeping it lean Republican)

[Image: QlkV4]
Swing state polls on http://fivethirtyeight.com today July 24:

Alaska Trump +1
Arizona Biden +2.9
Arkansas Trump +2
Florida Biden +7.6
Georgia Trump +1.3
Iowa Trump +0.3
Michigan Biden +7.4
Minnesota Biden +11.0
Missouri Trump +5.4
Montana Trump +8.9
Nevada Biden +6.7
New Hampshire Biden +7.5
North Carolina Biden +2.2
Ohio Biden +2.1
Pennsylvania Biden +6.8
South Carolina Trump +6.6
Texas dead even
Utah Trump +8.6
Virginia Biden +10.3
Wisconsin Biden +7.1
The current polling map for July 27 according to fivethirtyeight.com, using 270towin map to share here and for states with no polling. +-3= tossup, +3-9 leaning, +9-15 likely, +15+ solid. Blue states are Democratic, red states Republican. (one poll put Arkansas as +2 Trump, but that's only one poll this year, so I am keeping it lean Republican)

[Image: DWRyn]

As of now, Georgia and Iowa are tilting Republican, Ohio and North Carolina are tilting Democratic, and Texas is tied. I'm not sure about Maine District 2.

Swing state polls on http://fivethirtyeight.com today July 27:

Alaska Trump +1
Arizona Biden +3.2
Arkansas Trump +2
Florida Biden +7.1
Georgia Trump +1.3
Iowa Trump +0.3
Michigan Biden +7.6
Minnesota Biden +9.2
Missouri Trump +5.3
Montana Trump +8.9
Nevada Biden +6.8
New Hampshire Biden +7.6
North Carolina Biden +2.9
Ohio Biden +1.4
Pennsylvania Biden +6.7
South Carolina Trump +7.6
Texas dead even
Utah Trump +8.5
Virginia Biden +10.4
Wisconsin Biden +7.1
Pipe dream time. But what if Trump loses by a landslide and takes the senate down with him and puts it back to where it was when Obamacare finally passed in the Fall of 2009? This is how it could happen.

[Image: M4LvBM]
The AP has Trump floats election ‘delay’ amid claims of voting fraud.  CNN has it as well.

We have been sort of waiting for an attempt by Trump to extend his power.  This one is kind of flimsy.  The election laws have specific dates for the election and inauguration.  He has no evidence of the fraud.  Injunctions by the Democrats to the courts should turn any real attempts aside.

But he is feeding his base with conspiracy theory and widening that gap between realities.
British pollster, so it is, I presume, disinterested.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/...o-24-july/

Redfield & Wilton swing state polls

Wisconsin, July 19-24, 742 LV

Biden 45
Trump 35


Michigan, July 19-24, 811 LV

Biden 49
Trump 37


Arizona, July 19-23, 858 LV

Biden 46
Trump 38


Pennsylvania, July 19-21, 1016 LV

Biden 48
Trump 41


Florida, July 19-21, 1121 LV

Biden 48
Trump 41


North Carolina, July 19-21, 919 LV

Biden 43
Trump 42

Biden isn't at 50 in any of these polls, but Trump has not crossed 42 yet in any of them.
fivethirtyeight polls
July 31, 2020

National Biden +8.3
Arizona Biden +3.9
Colorado Biden +13.2
Florida Biden +6.0
Georgia Trump +1.2
Iowa Trump +1.0
Maine Biden +11
Maine 1 Biden +20
Maine 2 Biden +3
Michigan Biden +8.0
Minnesota Biden +7.7
Mississippi Trump +12
Missouri Trump +5.4
Montana Trump +8.4
Nebraska 2 Biden +9
Nevada Biden +6.6
New Hampshire Biden +9.3
North Carolina Biden +2.0
Ohio Trump +0.5
Pennsylvania Biden +6.6
South Carolina Trump +8.0
Tennessee Trump +11.5
Texas Biden +0.6
Utah Trump +8.7
Virginia Biden +10.7
Wisconsin Biden +7.1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
The current polling map for August 1 according to fivethirtyeight.com, using 270towin map to share here and for states with no polling. +-3= tossup, +3-9 leaning, +9-15 likely, +15+ solid. Blue states are Democratic, red states Republican. (one poll put Arkansas as +2 Trump, but that's only one poll this year, so I am keeping it lean Republican)

[Image: VoRR6]
Biden is very slightly losing ground.

National Biden +8
Arizona Biden +3.7
Florida Biden +5.8
Georgia Trump +0.7
Iowa Trump +1.3
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +7.5
Missouri Trump +5.7
Montana Trump +8.8
Nevada Biden +6.3
New Hampshire Biden +9.1
North Carolina Biden +2.1
Ohio Trump +0.3
Pennsylvania Biden +6.4
South Carolina Trump +7.1
Texas Biden +0.2
Utah Trump +8.9
Wisconsin Biden +6.6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
MSNBC had a law expert reviewing the checks and balances built into the election procedure.  The new Congress, elected in 2020, gets to review who is appointed to the electoral college.  If the election is somehow recognized as flawed or biased, the incumbent's term is still over on January 20 and the Speaker of the House would become president.  From there, through nominating a vice and resignation, Nancy could if she chose put the Democratic ticket in place.

Still a what if, but it shows the futility of trying to make things seem invalid.

I suppose if Trump tried to pretend the congressional elections were invalid too...
(08-04-2020, 01:03 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]MSNBC had a law expert reviewing the checks and balances built into the election procedure.  The new Congress, elected in 2020, gets to review who is appointed to the electoral college.  If the election is somehow recognized as flawed or biased, the incumbent's term is still over on January 20 and the Speaker of the House would become president.  From there, through nominating a vice and resignation, Nancy could if she chose put the Democratic ticket in place.

Still a what if, but it shows the futility of trying to make things seem invalid.

I suppose if Trump tried to pretend the congressional elections were invalid too...

I think the point was missed.  Trump doesn't want to invalidate the election.  He wants to invalidate the government. Creating disharmony on an epic scale may very well get the job done.  Kristallnacht anyone?
(08-04-2020, 07:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-04-2020, 01:03 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]MSNBC had a law expert reviewing the checks and balances built into the election procedure.  The new Congress, elected in 2020, gets to review who is appointed to the electoral college.  If the election is somehow recognized as flawed or biased, the incumbent's term is still over on January 20 and the Speaker of the House would become president.  From there, through nominating a vice and resignation, Nancy could if she chose put the Democratic ticket in place.

Still a what if, but it shows the futility of trying to make things seem invalid.

I suppose if Trump tried to pretend the congressional elections were invalid too...

I think the point was missed.  Trump doesn't want to invalidate the election.  He wants to invalidate the government. Creating disharmony on an epic scale may very well get the job done.  Kristallnacht anyone?

I think that's right. He is part of a deliberate (if not necessarily organized) trend to discredit our democratic system, so that people get ever more cynical and just refuse to vote or to participate in a corrupt and useless "system" and just turn on each other instead of valuing the commonweal. Actually, however corrupt and ineffective "the system" is, is largely our own fault; we voted for it. Either by failing to vote, or by voting the wrong way, which usually means the conservative way, too timid and too protective of our perogatives and responsive to our fears, instead of considering what's best for our country; just the reverse I guess of JFK's famous inaugural saying, which I was lucky enough to hear as it was first given.

But if the system can be made deliberately not to work, then the people who might be curtailed in their greedy and cynical activities just get their way, and are free to prey upon the people without restraint. If the "deep state" is discredited and thwarted, and filled with unqualified loyalists and cronies, then no agencies are left with qualified personnel who are experts in their fields and who are sworn to protect and promote the well-being of the people. This is Trump's and Bannon's project, and it only brings to new heights the work of Nixon and Reagan and Bush and Gingrich and McConnell and their followers and fellow agents before them.
(07-30-2020, 08:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The AP has Trump floats election ‘delay’ amid claims of voting fraud.  CNN has it as well.

We have been sort of waiting for an attempt by Trump to extend his power.  This one is kind of flimsy.  The election laws have specific dates for the election and inauguration.  He has no evidence of the fraud.  Injunctions by the Democrats to the courts should turn any real attempts aside.

But he is feeding his base with conspiracy theory and widening that gap between realities.
But if I may play devil’s advocate for a moment...

A report just released last week by an organization called the Transition Integrity Project war-gamed out several scenarios that might occur if the 2020 presidential election is disrupted by Donald Trump. The people who participated in this speculative exercise are a diverse group of former government officials, political consultants, journalists and students.

Here is the link to David Frum’s article in The Atlantic, entitled “Where the System May Break”:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...ng/614842/

This article, in turn, refers to the full report of the exercise as compiled by the project:

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documen...on-and.txt

Neil Howe referred to this intriguing report in his Democracy Unplugged podcast today (around the last 10-11 minutes).  And what’s interesting to note is Howe’s unqualified agreement with the prediction that the outcome of the presidential race will not be known on Election Night. Pretty easy call, I would say.  As for the rest of the scenarios...whoa boy!
(08-05-2020, 11:43 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: [ -> ]
(07-30-2020, 08:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The AP has Trump floats election ‘delay’ amid claims of voting fraud.  CNN has it as well.

We have been sort of waiting for an attempt by Trump to extend his power.  This one is kind of flimsy.  The election laws have specific dates for the election and inauguration.  He has no evidence of the fraud.  Injunctions by the Democrats to the courts should turn any real attempts aside.

But he is feeding his base with conspiracy theory and widening that gap between realities.
But if I may play devil’s advocate for a moment...

A report just released last week by an organization called the Transition Integrity Project war-gamed out several scenarios that might occur if the 2020 presidential election is disrupted by Donald Trump. The people who participated in this speculative exercise are a diverse group of former government officials, political consultants, journalists and students.

Here is the link to David Frum’s article in The Atlantic, entitled “Where the System May Break”:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...ng/614842/

This article, in turn, refers to the full report of the exercise as compiled by the project:

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documen...on-and.txt

Neil Howe referred to this intriguing report in his Democracy Unplugged podcast today (around the last 10-11 minutes).  And what’s interesting to note is Howe’s unqualified agreement with the prediction that the outcome of the presidential race will not be known on Election Night. Pretty easy call, I would say.  As for the rest of the scenarios...whoa boy!
Before poring over the report of the Transition Integrity Project (TIP), if you’re even interested, I would strongly suggest listening to the WBUR interview of Rosa Brooks first. The broadcast sheds light on the impetus for conducting the “table-top” war games in the first place, as well some mention of the “800-lb gorillas” in the room who participated in the highly speculative—but worthwhile—political exercise.

This 'War Game' Maps Out What Happens If The President Contests The Election

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2020/07/28/...p-scenario
The current polling map for August 6 according to fivethirtyeight.com, using 270towin map to share here and for states with no polling. +-3= tossup, +3-9 leaning, +9-15 likely, +15+ solid. Blue states are Democratic, red states Republican. (one poll put Arkansas as +2 Trump, but that's only one poll this year, so I am keeping it lean Republican)

[Image: KQJxy]

Biden is very slightly losing ground.

National Biden +7.6
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +12.6
Florida Biden +5.1
Georgia Trump +0.9
Iowa Trump +1.3
Michigan Biden +7.6
Minnesota Biden +7.0
Missouri Trump +5.9
Montana Trump +8.9
Nevada Biden +5.9
New Hampshire Biden +8.8
North Carolina Biden +2.3
Ohio Biden +0.2
Pennsylvania Biden +6.0
South Carolina Trump +6.4
Texas Trump +0.1
Utah Trump +9.3
Wisconsin Biden +7.4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
I see Trump's electoral map stabilizing in a zone of 125 to 218 electoral votes, at best (for Trump) 51 electoral votes short of a tie that would put the decision between state delegations in the House, and 52 electoral votes short of an outright win. (Quibble: Trump seems to be losing ME-02, which is one electoral vote).

Although it is possible for states to swing more than 10% from one election to the next, such does not happen often. The chance that Biden picks off a state like Alaska, Missouri, Montana, or South Carolina is small. I doubt that Biden will put much effort in campaigning in these states when he can finish Trump off in states that clinch for him. Maybe if Trump makes a quixotic effort to win a state like Oregon or New Jersey he loses both states -- and something that he really needs, such as Texas.

This said, political realignments begin with blowout landslides.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

Biden doing slightly better?
Ohio creeping back toward Biden, Texas slinking back to Trump.

National Biden +7.8
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +12.8
Florida Biden +5.2
Georgia Trump +0.9
Iowa Trump +1.4
Michigan Biden +7.8
Minnesota Biden +7.1
Missouri Trump +5.7
Montana Trump +8.9
Nevada Biden +6.1
New Hampshire Biden +9.0
North Carolina Biden +2.3
Ohio Biden +0.3
Pennsylvania Biden +6.1
South Carolina Trump +6.4
Texas Trump +0.9
Utah Trump +11.4
Wisconsin Biden +7.5
(08-07-2020, 11:17 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

Biden doing slightly better?
Ohio creeping back toward Biden, Texas slinking back to Trump.

National Biden +7.8
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +12.8
Florida Biden +5.2
Georgia Trump +0.9
Iowa Trump +1.4
Michigan Biden +7.8
Minnesota Biden +7.1
Missouri Trump +5.7
Montana Trump +8.9
Nevada Biden +6.1
New Hampshire Biden +9.0
North Carolina Biden +2.3
Ohio Biden +0.3
Pennsylvania Biden +6.1
South Carolina Trump +6.4
Texas Trump +0.9
Utah Trump +11.4
Wisconsin Biden +7.5
What is Biden's horoscope score? Higher than his earlier challengers?
(08-08-2020, 09:39 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-07-2020, 11:17 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

Biden doing slightly better?
Ohio creeping back toward Biden, Texas slinking back to Trump.

National Biden +7.8
Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +12.8
Florida Biden +5.2
Georgia Trump +0.9
Iowa Trump +1.4
Michigan Biden +7.8
Minnesota Biden +7.1
Missouri Trump +5.7
Montana Trump +8.9
Nevada Biden +6.1
New Hampshire Biden +9.0
North Carolina Biden +2.3
Ohio Biden +0.3
Pennsylvania Biden +6.1
South Carolina Trump +6.4
Texas Trump +0.9
Utah Trump +11.4
Wisconsin Biden +7.5
What is Biden's horoscope score? Higher than his earlier challengers?

Yes, definitely higher than his primary challengers, and easily better than Hillary too. His score is 14-7, or maybe 14-8; not sure now. Sanders was the only one who could have carried the ball with his score also 14-7. These are slightly lower %wise than Trump's 9-4, but with a higher positive number. So, too close to call.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
August 10 poll averages

Biden doing slightly better?
Ohio creeping back toward Biden, Texas slinking back to Trump.

National Biden +8.2
Arizona Biden +3.0
Colorado Biden +13.0
Florida Biden +5.4
Georgia Trump +0.8
Iowa Trump +1.4
Michigan Biden +7.8
Minnesota Biden +7.2
Missouri Trump +5.5
Montana Trump +8.8
Nevada Biden +6.4
New Hampshire Biden +9.2
North Carolina Biden +2.0
Ohio Biden +0.5
Pennsylvania Biden +6.3
South Carolina Trump +6.4
Texas Trump +0.8
Utah Trump +11.3
Wisconsin Biden +7.2