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The dynamic duo breaks through the American fog at the virtual DNC







Shouldn't they have been clearer? Wink
(08-20-2020, 08:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Shouldn't they have been clearer?  Wink

I think they've decided that they would be remiss -- even negligent -- if they didn't go after this buffoon with all the force they can muster.
To make hope and history rhyme. That's a good poetic quote by Biden that should resonate here. Hope for this 4T to turn out like the others, in which the progressive side won.
I will be interested in how the usual convention bounces of the polls go.  I would anticipate the Republicans if Trump get his way presenting him as a stable genius who alone could solve the problems we are facing.  That would fall flat for an awful lot of folks these days.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
August 21 poll averages

Swing states are slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago. The national average for Biden is slightly higher now, but there has not been any Biden Bump yet. Meanwhile Biden's rising national score seems to come from California and maybe some other blue states, because the averages for the swing states keep swinging slightly away from him.

UPDATE: checking later in the day, it seems some states do seem to show Biden picking up steam a bit since yesterday.

National Biden +8.6
Arizona Biden +4.3
Colorado Biden +14.0
Florida Biden +5.9
Georgia Trump +0.7
Iowa Trump +1.0
Kansas Trump +8.6
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +5.4
Missouri Trump +5.2
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +7.4
New Hampshire Biden +8.9
North Carolina Biden +1.0
Ohio Trump +0.2
Pennsylvania Biden +6.0
South Carolina Trump +6.2
Texas Trump +1.6
Utah Trump +10.9
Wisconsin Biden +6.8

California: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...alifornia/

The national poll average may influence how they are figuring their state averages.

I expect Trump will rally his base and get an up to 2% boost in his numbers, if the polls are accurate. There are a few polls around like Rasmussen that are as dishonest in favor of Trump as the Republican officials are. I don't expect higher than 2% because Trump's disapproval rating has been as high as 56%, so I don't expect them to return to Trump, but only to the undecided column. The percentage in favor of Biden could fall more than 2% though, if a bit of Biden's support moves into the undecided column.

I was leaning toward finally predicting a Biden victory, encouraged by the polls and the Lichtman Keys. The one-year Jupiter-Saturn conjunction after the zero-year election always puts the Establishment on a new track, even if the party in power wins. But even then, the party in power wins only if one party has gained a habitual favor. In 1940, FDR had the nation hard-wired for him and his party in the middle of a severe 4T. The civil war boosted the Republicans in 1880 and 1900, and they basically held the White House until that next 4T began. And in 1820 there was only one party anyway. And even in 1880 and 1900, an immediate assassination sent the Establishment on a new path anyway even without a change in party power. And in 1940, the world war did the same.

My two basic prediction methods, however, predict a Trump victory. But this is either marginal or comes with important caveats. The horoscope scores, which are close between Trump (9-4) and Biden (14-7), are in general not entirely fixed, but being mostly-empirically based, they shift a little bit based on each election. If Biden wins and Trump loses, a few of the planetary aspects that determine the scores in their charts are now marginal enough in their advantage or disadvantage that the scores between Trump and Biden could even out. That awaits further calculations and revisions I intend to make after the 2020 election.

The new moon before the election method favors the incumbent too, but Uranus square the Ascendant from below in the new moon chart has been a powerful signal of a fall from power, and it happens again in 2020, as it did in 2016, reversing the indicator.

But Biden's strength and his number boosts continue to come more from the coasts rather than the heartland. It won't take much to build back the blue wall in the upper midwest, but it won't take much for it to stay down either. If national numbers fall below 3 or even 4%, the election there will be close and Trump will be able to cheat or contest the election. The gap between the popular and electoral vote will be greater. Every vote is important even if Biden is ahead. And if the Senate elections do not also go blue in Maine, North Carolina and Montana, at least, a Biden administration will accomplish little.

It is still uncertain whether Biden can win, and even if he does, whether he will get progress moving again or whether his successor can win. If it's Harris who carries the mantle in 2024, the Republicans will return to power and keep the 4T going on into the 2030s.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html
Eric Here is a classic case of using a methodology to arrive at findings and then not drawing the logical conclusion from their own findings and methodology. Eric's own astrology charts mention unsuitability of Kamala Harris and then mentions a fall from power in 2020 as well as had already happened in 2016. Yet the possiblity that the fall from power His charts are supposed to signify in 2020 actually means the collapse of the establishment wing of the DNC since they had fully excluded non-neoliberals and non-sjws from the platform thus taking full responsibility for whatever outcome the election brings. Eric refuses to acknowledge that the "fall from power" could mean the end of the neoliberals as a political force after a Trump win on even greater margins than in 2016 resulting in the discrediting of the neoliberal wing and especially the public discrediting of radical sjw-ism of the KHive which would be followed by the wholesale replacement of democrat leadership by Bernie/Tulsi/Yang/Williamson/Joe Rogan Types. Sorry Eric but Kamala is going the way of Mondale and Dukakis on election day this November.
A lot has happened in four years. A lot has happened in ten years. When I started in EMS in 2007, we were hauling WW-II vets every day from hip and knee replacement surgery to the rehab hospitals. By the time I retired from EMS in 2018, hardly EVER did we see a WW-II vet. Even at the Dem convention, the old fellow they wheeled up from WW-II was damn near too young! He only made one jump into Europe and then the European theater was over.

My point is that even four years ago, there were LOTS of old white folks voting for Trump. Lots of change since then. The voting (non-voting?) behavior of the younger cohorts may well change the view from 30,000 feet this election. Union guys from the halcyon 1950's are scarcer. Even Viet Nam vets are starting to die off. One thing for sure, we may well be playing with the right model of history here!
(08-21-2020, 06:12 PM)CH86 Wrote: [ -> ]Eric Here is a classic case of using a methodology to arrive at findings and then not drawing the logical conclusion from their own findings and methodology. Eric's own astrology charts mention unsuitability of Kamala Harris and then mentions a fall from power in 2020 as well as had already happened in 2016. Yet the possiblity that the fall from power His charts are supposed to signify in 2020 actually means the collapse of the establishment wing of the DNC since they had fully excluded non-neoliberals and non-sjws from the platform thus taking full responsibility for whatever outcome the election brings. Eric refuses to acknowledge that the "fall from power" could mean the end of the neoliberals as a political force after a Trump win on even greater margins than in 2016 resulting in the discrediting of the neoliberal wing and especially the public discrediting of radical sjw-ism of the KHive which would be followed by the wholesale replacement of democrat leadership by Bernie/Tulsi/Yang/Williamson/Joe Rogan Types. Sorry Eric but Kamala is going the way of Mondale and Dukakis on election day this November.
Personally, I think the Democratic party is on verge of going the way of the Whigs as a political force.
(08-21-2020, 06:12 PM)CH86 Wrote: [ -> ]Eric Here is a classic case of using a methodology to arrive at findings and then not drawing the logical conclusion from their own findings and methodology. Eric's own astrology charts mention unsuitability of Kamala Harris and then mentions a fall from power in 2020 as well as had already happened in 2016. Yet the possiblity that the fall from power His charts are supposed to signify in 2020 actually means the collapse of the establishment wing of the DNC since they had fully excluded non-neoliberals and non-sjws from the platform thus taking full responsibility for whatever outcome the election brings. Eric refuses to acknowledge that the "fall from power" could mean the end of the neoliberals as a political force after a Trump win on even greater margins than in 2016 resulting in the discrediting of the neoliberal wing and especially the public discrediting of radical sjw-ism of the KHive which would be followed by the wholesale replacement of democrat leadership by Bernie/Tulsi/Yang/Williamson/Joe Rogan Types. Sorry Eric but Kamala is going the way of Mondale and Dukakis on election day this November.

Thanks for considering.

Sorry that I don't draw that conclusion about the DNC. The Democrats remain the Party challenging the White House, so they are the one to benefit from Jupiter and Saturn starting a new cycle, and thus a new beginning for the Establishment.

Trump, being the ultimate neo-liberal, is indeed to suffer a fall, if this indicator is correct; and I hope it will take neo-liberalism down with him. So Kamala might be the new VP, but her failure as nominee in 2024 might bring back the neo-liberal Republicans. The Democrats will need to find another nominee in order to win, although (s)he may not be as progressive as we might wish.

Of course, not to see Trump as a flaming neo-liberal, and a pillar of the Establishment in every sense, is to miss entirely what is going on. And I don't see how a progressive candidate can win without the sjw's as part of that coalition, and black lives matter.

Don't forget though, that this Jupiter-Saturn conjunction is only one factor, and I haven't yet drawn an astrological conclusion about 2020. It looks good though, based on the Lichtman Keys and the polls for Biden, as well as based on this powerful conjunction.

However, I have also written profusely for decades here and in my books and articles predicting a new progressive era for the 2020s. That could in due course bring more power to the Bernie wings, although perhaps not to Tulsi, who has disqualified herself with her loony conspiracy theories about Syria, which she refuses to relinquish. I don't know who among that progressive wing can actually be elected though, according to the horoscope scores. I don't see hope for AOC either, or for Yang or any of the 2020 primary candidates. The liberal or center-left (not neo-liberal), as opposed to progressive, Democratic Party wing still offers the most promising winning candidates, according to my scores. A progressive era may have to come about because the people push and arouse the center-left leaders to action. That has happened already to some extent with Biden, and Harris is at least somewhat to his left politically. That's the way it also happened in previous progressive eras.

I wish better progressive candidates would appear, being a Bernie supporter, but we'll see who comes up through the ranks. We saw a bevy of young millennial leaders at the convention whom I don't know and haven't scored. I doubt Bernie himself can continue to be the standard bearer. But as Lichtman reminds us, success as a prophet requires keeping one's personal political preferences out of the way as fully as possible.

Joe Rogan? Sorry, lol. Google describes him as a comedian with mostly libertarian views. Libertarian = Neo-liberal.

I remember that CH86 stands for Cynic Hero 86, so we should expect a motley mix of views from him, some of them disreputable.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html
I would expect the partisans to predict the triumph of their own perspective. We'll have to compare the predictions against reality after the election, and after we get an idea of how Trump will respond.
(08-21-2020, 05:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
August 21 poll averages

Swing states are slightly better for Trump right now than a few weeks ago. The national average for Biden is slightly higher now, but there has not been any Biden Bump yet. Meanwhile Biden's rising national score seems to come from California and maybe some other blue states, because the averages for the swing states keep swinging slightly away from him.

UPDATE: checking later in the day, it seems some states do seem to show Biden picking up steam.

National Biden +8.6
Arizona Biden +4.3
Colorado Biden +14.0
Florida Biden +5.9
Georgia Trump +0.7
Iowa Trump +1.0
Kansas Trump +8.6
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +5.4
Missouri Trump +5.2
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +7.4
New Hampshire Biden +8.9
North Carolina Biden +1.0
Ohio Trump +0.2
Pennsylvania Biden +6.0
South Carolina Trump +6.2
Texas Trump +1.6
Utah Trump +10.9
Wisconsin Biden +6.8

California: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...alifornia/

The national poll average may influence how they are figuring their state averages.

I expect Trump will rally his base and get an up to 2% boost in his numbers, if the polls are accurate. There are a few polls around like Rasmussen that are as dishonest in favor of Trump as the Republican officials are. I don't expect higher than 2% because Trump's disapproval rating has been as high as 56%, so I don't expect them to return to Trump, but only to the undecided column. The percentage in favor of Biden could fall more than 2% though, if a bit of Biden's support moves into the undecided column.

I was leaning toward finally predicting a Biden victory, encouraged by the polls and the Lichtman Keys. The one-year Jupiter-Saturn conjunction after the zero-year election always puts the Establishment on a new track, even if the party in power wins. But even then, the party in power wins only if one party has gained a habitual favor. In 1940, FDR had the nation hard-wired for him and his party in the middle of a severe 4T. The civil war boosted the Republicans in 1880 and 1900, and they basically held the White House until that next 4T began. And in 1820 there was only one party anyway. And even in 1880 and 1900, an immediate assassination sent the Establishment on a new path anyway even without a change in party power. And in 1940, the world war did the same.

My two basic prediction methods, however, predict a Trump victory. But this is either marginal or comes with important caveats. The horoscope scores, which are close between Trump (9-4) and Biden (14-7), are in general not entirely fixed, but being mostly-empirically based, they shift a little bit based on each election. If Biden wins and Trump loses, a few of the planetary aspects that determine the scores in their charts are now marginal enough in their advantage or disadvantage that the scores between Trump and Biden could even out. That awaits further calculations and revisions I intend to make after the 2020 election.

The new moon before the election method favors the incumbent too, but Uranus square the Ascendant from below in the new moon chart has been a powerful signal of a fall from power, and it happens again in 2020, as it did in 2016, reversing the indicator.

But Biden's strength and his number boosts continue to come more from the coasts rather than the heartland. It won't take much to build back the blue wall in the upper midwest, but it won't take much for it to stay down either. If national numbers fall below 3 or even 4%, the election there will be close and Trump will be able to cheat or contest the election. The gap between the popular and electoral vote will be greater. Every vote is important even if Biden is ahead. And if the Senate elections do not also go blue in Maine, North Carolina and Montana, at least, a Biden administration will accomplish little.

It is still uncertain whether Biden can win, and even if he does, whether he will get progress moving again or whether his successor can win. If it's Harris who carries the mantle in 2024, the Republicans will return to power and keep the 4T going on into the 2030s.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html
You want to feel what its really like to be viewed and treated as an enemy/traitor of the American state, you just keep your eyes shut and continue promoting racism and continue ignoring the ugly truth about yourselves and continue supporting LIBERAL courts and judges changing American election laws and allowing illegal unverified mass voting to take place prior to a national election. Do Democrats value their own lives as much as they value their political careers and fancy titles and all the money and power related to them? We'll see because the American right is going to start to place their lives on the line and start placing their lives and futures here at risk.
(08-21-2020, 10:36 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]I would expect the partisans to predict the triumph of their own perspective.  We'll have to compare the predictions against reality after the election, and after we get an idea of how Trump will respond.
As I've mentioned, you're screwed either way at this point. I don't care if you find yourself being over whelmed by lawlessness or whether you have to accept that you were wrong and have to apologize for all the years that you have been lying or you find yourself cut off and isolated by Americans who have the power to bring a Democratic regime to its knees and completely turn its world upside down and starve it to death.
(08-21-2020, 11:40 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-21-2020, 10:36 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]I would expect the partisans to predict the triumph of their own perspective.  We'll have to compare the predictions against reality after the election, and after we get an idea of how Trump will respond.
As I've mentioned, you're screwed either way at this point. I don't care if you find yourself being over whelmed by lawlessness or whether you have to accept that you were wrong and have to apologize for all the years that you have been lying or you find yourself cut off and isolated by Americans who have the power to bring a Democratic regime to its knees and completely turn its world upside down and starve it to death.

Spoken like a true believer in the old values as the heart of the 4T is coming. There comes a point where you just have to wait for reality to hit. Repeating the theory and the reality will not be sufficient to change an ideologue. I am not inclined to try just now. We'll see how the elections go. We'll see how Trump responds. We'll see about how the conservatives reconstitute themselves. At this point exchanging incompatible visions had gone about as far as it is going to.
(08-21-2020, 10:33 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-21-2020, 06:12 PM)CH86 Wrote: [ -> ]Eric Here is a classic case of using a methodology to arrive at findings and then not drawing the logical conclusion from their own findings and methodology. Eric's own astrology charts mention unsuitability of Kamala Harris and then mentions a fall from power in 2020 as well as had already happened in 2016. Yet the possiblity that the fall from power His charts are supposed to signify in 2020 actually means the collapse of the establishment wing of the DNC since they had fully excluded non-neoliberals and non-sjws from the platform thus taking full responsibility for whatever outcome the election brings. Eric refuses to acknowledge that the "fall from power" could mean the end of the neoliberals as a political force after a Trump win on even greater margins than in 2016 resulting in the discrediting of the neoliberal wing and especially the public discrediting of radical sjw-ism of the KHive which would be followed by the wholesale replacement of democrat leadership by Bernie/Tulsi/Yang/Williamson/Joe Rogan Types. Sorry Eric but Kamala is going the way of Mondale and Dukakis on election day this November.

Thanks for considering.

Sorry that I don't draw that conclusion about the DNC. The Democrats remain the Party challenging the White House, so they are the one to benefit from Jupiter and Saturn starting a new cycle, and thus a new beginning for the Establishment.
Not really. The Democratic still represents what's left of the Washington establishment with Trump still being the challenger. Personally, I don't see America voting to go back to the way things were under the Democrats. I'm sorry but Obama really sucked as an American President. He was more interested in pleasing global elites and Hollywood movie stars and acting conservative enough to be elected and seeming appealing enough to working class voters that he could care less about at the time too. Obama burned a bridge with American workers who weren't born with a silver spoon in their mouth like him or his mother or his father and most of the people who represent the Democratic establishment today.
(08-22-2020, 12:16 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-21-2020, 11:40 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-21-2020, 10:36 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]I would expect the partisans to predict the triumph of their own perspective.  We'll have to compare the predictions against reality after the election, and after we get an idea of how Trump will respond.
As I've mentioned, you're screwed either way at this point. I don't care if you find yourself being over whelmed by lawlessness or whether you have to accept that you were wrong and have to apologize for all the years that you have been lying or you find yourself cut off and isolated by Americans who have the power to bring a Democratic regime to its knees and completely turn its world upside down and starve it to death.

Spoken like a true believer in the old values as the heart of the 4T is coming.  There comes a point where you just have to wait for reality to hit.  Repeating the theory and the reality will not be sufficient to change an ideologue.   I am not inclined to try just now.  We'll see how the elections go.  We'll see how Trump responds.  We'll see about how the conservatives reconstitute themselves.  At this point exchanging incompatible visions had gone about as far as it is going to.
Dude, I don't care if you continue to make mistakes and continue to piss Americans off with your foolish insults and continue to dig yourself into a deeper hole and continue to slit your throat politically or if end up dying sooner or end up poorer as a result either. My job isn't to defend a big boy like you who should know better than to bite the hand of the American people that outnumber the Democratic establishment by a substantial amount these days.
(08-22-2020, 01:16 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]Dude, I don't care if you continue to make mistakes and continue to piss Americans off with your foolish insults and continue to dig yourself into a deeper hole and continue to slit your throat politically or if end up dying sooner or end up poorer as a result either. My job isn't to defend a big boy like you who should know better than to bite the hand of the American people that  outnumber the Democratic establishment by a substantial amount these days.

I just don't think you represent much of anyone in you thoughts. Most aren't as obsessed with violence. Most are buying into to the Democratic idea of decency being on the ballot. Your projection is pretty absurd. We just have to wait for reality to catch up with projection.
(08-21-2020, 11:27 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]You want to feel what its really like to be viewed and treated as an enemy/traitor of the American state, you just keep your eyes shut and continue promoting racism and continue ignoring the ugly truth about yourselves and continue supporting LIBERAL courts and judges changing American election laws and allowing illegal unverified mass voting to take place prior to a national election. Do Democrats value their own lives as much as they value their political careers and fancy titles and all the money and power related to them? We'll see because the American right is going to start to place their lives on the line and start placing their lives and futures here at risk.

Your perspective represents to me what we need to move beyond in order to progress. I hope for a time when awakenings can happen, not just during a 2T, and younger people from the heartland can be joined in to this awakening, and we can start to move more together instead of at each others throats. Older people tend to stay stuck in our polarized opinions, but we don't always have to stay in that mode if we don't want to.
(08-22-2020, 01:19 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(08-21-2020, 11:27 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]You want to feel what its really like to be viewed and  treated as an enemy/traitor of the American state, you just keep your eyes shut and continue promoting racism  and continue ignoring the ugly truth about yourselves and continue supporting LIBERAL courts and  judges changing American election laws and allowing illegal unverified mass voting to take place prior to a national election. Do Democrats value their own lives as much as they value their political careers and fancy titles and all the money and power related to them? We'll see because the American right is going to start to  place their lives on the line and start placing their lives and futures here at risk.

Your perspective represents to me what we need to move beyond in order to progress. I hope for a time when awakenings can happen, not just during a 2T, and younger people from the heartland can be joined in to this awakening, and we can start to move more together instead of at each others throats. Older people tend to stay stuck in our polarized opinions, but we don't always have to stay in that mode if we don't want to.
Young People are uniting AGAINST wall street and the establishment. While most of us under 50 have completely different political views than core Xers like Classic-Xer; our views are quite a bit closer to his own than they are to your average boomer establishment politician, or younger bootlicker establishment politician.

The DNC has made it crystal clear during this last primary that anyone who is any kind of populist (either left or right), anyone who doesn't support free market fundamentalism or anyone who doesn't support radical censorship: The DNC has said quite clearly that we were not welcome in the democratic party. If anyone has any inspiration for change and positive reforms and positive increases in the American people's freedom; then they must make their political home elsewhere certainly not in the halls of the DNC. The democratic party is now the home of power hungry establishment boomers who fancy themselves an aristocracy and/or boomer and teacher's pet SJW control-freaks.

Getting rid of the boomers in Washington DC solves most of this country's problems and Trump is the only one so far who has made any progress in that regard.
(08-22-2020, 01:26 PM)CH86 Wrote: [ -> ]Young People are uniting AGAINST wall street and the establishment. While most of us under 50 have completely different political views than core Xers like Classic-Xer; our views are quite a bit closer to his own than they are to your average boomer establishment politician, or younger bootlicker establishment politician.

The DNC has made it crystal clear during this last primary that anyone who is any kind of populist (either left or right), anyone who doesn't support free market fundamentalism or anyone who doesn't support radical censorship: The DNC has said quite clearly that we were not welcome in the democratic party. If anyone has any inspiration for change and positive reforms and positive increases in the American people's freedom; then they must make their political home elsewhere certainly not in the halls of the DNC. The democratic party is now the home of power hungry establishment boomers who fancy themselves an aristocracy and/or boomer and teacher's pet SJW control-freaks.

Getting rid of the boomers in Washington DC solves most of this country's problems and Trump is the only one so far who has made any progress in that regard.

Unfortunately, Trump is doing best at getting rid of the Republicans which are being forced to be loyal to him.  The first priority is putting the traditional American virtues on the ballot that Biden said are on the ballot.  That enables the Democrats.

The Democrats have given lip service to including part of the radical agenda, such as climate change and bridges.  They have claimed the elites and corporations must pay their fair share of taxes, and repealing the Trump tax cuts for the rich.  We will have to see if they are serious about that.