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The difference between Trump and previous candidates is stark. Back in 1976, Republican Gerald Ford ran for election and made one gaffe at a debate, saying Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and it cost him the election. Nixon lost a debate to JFK because Nixon looked nervous and sweated on TV and it cost him the election. Michael Dukakis' numbers plummeted just because he rode around in a tank and because an ad accused him of letting Willie Horton off easy. Al Gore lunged toward Bush in a menacing way in a debate and it hurt his chances. George Bush seemed aloof compared to Bill Clinton in a debate and it cost Bush. Hillary correctly labeled some of Trump's supporters as deplorable and it hurt her numbers. Even in 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin made gaffes about seeing Russia from her window, and it hurt McCain.

Trump can say he could go out on 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose any voters, OK? (and maybe he actually just did something like that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y345hhC8N1c ) He can say McCain was not a hero because he was captured, insult a gold star parent, and call USA soldiers who die "losers and suckers," and still no-one deserts him. He can promise that protesters will be carried out on stretchers and ask his followers to punch them, and they do. He can make fun of handicapped people all he wants, and does not suffer the fate of Reagan's Interior Secretary James Watt in 1982 who merely used the word "cripple." He can tell people to vote twice, and openly and admittedly lie and cover up that he knew all about the coronavirus that has killed 200,000 Americans under his watch, but called it nothing to be concerned about and did very little about it. He can lie about paying off a prostitute, and call climate change a Chinese hoax that science knows nothing about. He can openly ask foreign leaders to interfere in our elections. He can call the press the enemy of the people. He can call a mexican-american judge who rules against him a so-called judge. He can accuse his opponent's father of assassinating JFK. He can say he believes Putin more than his own intelligence agencies. He can say that Nazis are good people, and welcomes support from QAnon. He can label Latin American refugees seeking to cross the US border as non-existent "caravans of terrorists." He can ask his attorney general to interfere with the administration of justice. He can gas peaceful protesters outside the White House to make way for a Bible photo op, and send his goons to Portland OR to take innocent people off the streets. There is no end of his gaffes, and yet he suffers no loss of support for any of them.

The debate will cause no loss in Trump's poll numbers. He will keep at least 42%. He can make any gaffe, and even sound like he's half asleep, and it will make no difference to the followers of their dear leader Daddy. He lost three debates to Hillary, and hovered over her threateningly, and still won the electoral college. The best that can happen is that Biden picks up a point or two by reassuring a few undecided voters that is he up to the job.

Trump is a cult leader, an authoritarian tyrant with hypnotic power. If he wins, we go the way of Italy in the 1920s and 30s, whose dear leader promised to make his country great again.
(09-15-2020, 11:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Trump is a cult leader, an authoritarian tyrant with hypnotic power. If he wins, we go the way of Italy in the 1920s and 30s, whose dear leader promised to make his country great again.

I'm not sure if it is a hypnotic power, but a desperate try by the former Tea Party to find a non establishment person to fall in love with. I used to approve that the Republicans were more ready to reject their establishment than the Democrats, but they fell in love with first Palin then Trump, both in their own ways seriously flawed. There seemed to be no real viable alternative.

That, and Trump had a friend who had a bunch of canned scandals ready to go. As soon as someone started to look good in the Republican primaries, the scandal that would take that person down would just happen to get released.

This time around, Trump is stuck with his record, and Biden is a hard person to hit with a scandal. Hopefully, that will be enough.
And one of the biggest lies the former Tea Party has believed, is that Trump is a "non establishment person." He is the most establishment person in the world, and his policies are the most supportive of the establishment ever.
(09-15-2020, 11:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The difference between Trump and previous candidates is stark. Back in 1976, Republican Gerald Ford ran for election and made one gaffe at a debate, saying Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and it cost him the election. Nixon lost a debate to JFK because Nixon looked nervous and sweated on TV and it cost him the election. Michael Dukakis' numbers plummeted just because he rode around in a tank and because an ad accused him of letting Willie Horton off easy. Al Gore lunged toward Bush in a menacing way in a debate and it hurt his chances. George Bush seemed aloof compared to Bill Clinton in a debate and it cost Bush. Hillary correctly labeled some of Trump's supporters as deplorable and it hurt her numbers. Even in 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin made gaffes about seeing Russia from her window, and it hurt McCain.

Trump can say he could go out on 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose any voters, OK? (and maybe he actually just did something like that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y345hhC8N1c ) He can say McCain was not a hero because he was captured, insult a gold star parent, and call USA soldiers who die "losers and suckers," and still no-one deserts him. He can promise that protesters will be carried out on stretchers and ask his followers to punch them, and they do. He can make fun of handicapped people all he wants, and does not suffer the fate of Reagan's Interior Secretary James Watt in 1982 who merely used the word "cripple." He can tell people to vote twice, and openly and admittedly lie and cover up that he knew all about the coronavirus that has killed 200,000 Americans under his watch, but called it nothing to be concerned about and did very little about it. He can lie about paying off a prostitute, and call climate change a Chinese hoax that science knows nothing about. He can openly ask foreign leaders to interfere in our elections. He can call the press the enemy of the people. He can call a mexican-american judge who rules against him a so-called judge. He can accuse his opponent's father of assassinating JFK. He can say he believes Putin more than his own intelligence agencies. He can say that Nazis are good people, and welcomes support from QAnon. He can label Latin American refugees seeking to cross the US border as non-existent "caravans of terrorists." He can ask his attorney general to interfere with the administration of justice. He can gas peaceful protesters outside the White House to make way for a Bible photo op, and send his goons to Portland OR to take innocent people off the streets. There is no end of his gaffes, and yet he suffers no loss of support for any of them.

The debate will cause no loss in Trump's poll numbers. He will keep at least 42%. He can make any gaffe, and even sound like he's half asleep, and it will make no difference to the followers of their dear leader Daddy. He lost three debates to Hillary, and hovered over her threateningly, and still won the electoral college. The best that can happen is that Biden picks up a point or two by reassuring a few undecided voters that is he up to the job.

Trump is a cult leader, an authoritarian tyrant with hypnotic power. If he wins, we go the way of Italy in the 1920s and 30s, whose dear leader promised to make his country great again.

We will need, when Trump is gone:

1. to expand the norm of education from K-12 to K-14 with a nearly-standardized program of liberal arts that includes at the least 

economics (so that people at the least learn that there is no such thing as a free lunch)
philosophy (to learn formal logic and the connections of knowledge as well as tests of truth)
psychology (so that people thwart the dirty tricks of con artists of all kinds, including Trump-like demagogues)
statistics (to find criteria for making wise decisions based on numerical data)
comparative political systems (so people know what is wrong with undemocratic systems, and why body counts correlate to tyranny irrespective of the ideological raiment)
music appreciation (at the least, jazz, ragtime, folk, the blues, and above all classical so that people can have something to latch onto)

In case you don't think it important, this work

 



was once all it took to convince me to not commit suicide in a very bad time. Music with generic titles from a time long ago still speaks to the soul as Top-40 schlock does not. 

art appreciation (rich kids go for this as a major... art defines people and civilization. 
a foreign language, which can expand one's cultural universe. 
comparative religion because there is no One Undeniable Truth except for mathematical and physical laws

and, of course, the usual freshmen composition, calculus for those ready for it,  and of course literature.
I said a mouthful about education alone, so there is more:

2. creating a better climate for small business. Small business does far more with less because it does not need the bloated bureaucracies of corporate behemoths and lacks the means of buying the succor of political hacks.
3. going from neoliberal economics to a social-market economy
4. giving up the role of the World's Policeman -- and more importantly the role of Chief of Police.
5. making fascism in all kinds an unqualified disgrace (yes, Alt-Right, neo-Nazis, and KKK... be gone!)
6. closing the seams in our political system -- seams that allow ruthless and amoral figures like Karl Rove and Roger Stone to circumvent the checks and balances. In the old days people who knew about these seams refused to exploit them or disclose them to people who might use them to compromise the norms of our Constitutional system.
7. promote economic activity in 'flyover' country instead of the coasts and Chicago. Let's make places like Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, and St. Louis.... great again!
270towin polling averages in key states.
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling

AZ Biden +4
CO Biden +10.6
FL Biden +2.6
GA Trump +0.5
IA Trump +2.0
ME Biden +14
MI Biden +7.4
MN Biden +7.8
MO Trump +8
MT Trump +5.5
NC Trump +0.2
NH Biden +5.5
NV Biden +4.5
OH Trump +0.3
PA Biden +5
TX Trump +1.3
WI Biden +6.1
(09-16-2020, 12:47 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-15-2020, 11:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The difference between Trump and previous candidates is stark. Back in 1976, Republican Gerald Ford ran for election and made one gaffe at a debate, saying Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and it cost him the election. Nixon lost a debate to JFK because Nixon looked nervous and sweated on TV and it cost him the election. Michael Dukakis' numbers plummeted just because he rode around in a tank and because an ad accused him of letting Willie Horton off easy. Al Gore lunged toward Bush in a menacing way in a debate and it hurt his chances. George Bush seemed aloof compared to Bill Clinton in a debate and it cost Bush. Hillary correctly labeled some of Trump's supporters as deplorable and it hurt her numbers. Even in 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin made gaffes about seeing Russia from her window, and it hurt McCain.

Trump can say he could go out on 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose any voters, OK? (and maybe he actually just did something like that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y345hhC8N1c ) He can say McCain was not a hero because he was captured, insult a gold star parent, and call USA soldiers who die "losers and suckers," and still no-one deserts him. He can promise that protesters will be carried out on stretchers and ask his followers to punch them, and they do. He can make fun of handicapped people all he wants, and does not suffer the fate of Reagan's Interior Secretary James Watt in 1982 who merely used the word "cripple." He can tell people to vote twice, and openly and admittedly lie and cover up that he knew all about the coronavirus that has killed 200,000 Americans under his watch, but called it nothing to be concerned about and did very little about it. He can lie about paying off a prostitute, and call climate change a Chinese hoax that science knows nothing about. He can openly ask foreign leaders to interfere in our elections. He can call the press the enemy of the people. He can call a mexican-american judge who rules against him a so-called judge. He can accuse his opponent's father of assassinating JFK. He can say he believes Putin more than his own intelligence agencies. He can say that Nazis are good people, and welcomes support from QAnon. He can label Latin American refugees seeking to cross the US border as non-existent "caravans of terrorists." He can ask his attorney general to interfere with the administration of justice. He can gas peaceful protesters outside the White House to make way for a Bible photo op, and send his goons to Portland OR to take innocent people off the streets. There is no end of his gaffes, and yet he suffers no loss of support for any of them.

The debate will cause no loss in Trump's poll numbers. He will keep at least 42%. He can make any gaffe, and even sound like he's half asleep, and it will make no difference to the followers of their dear leader Daddy. He lost three debates to Hillary, and hovered over her threateningly, and still won the electoral college. The best that can happen is that Biden picks up a point or two by reassuring a few undecided voters that is he up to the job.

Trump is a cult leader, an authoritarian tyrant with hypnotic power. If he wins, we go the way of Italy in the 1920s and 30s, whose dear leader promised to make his country great again.

We will need, when Trump is gone:

1. to expand the norm of education from K-12 to K-14 with a nearly-standardized program of liberal arts that includes at the least 

economics (so that people at the least learn that there is no such thing as a free lunch)
philosophy (to learn formal logic and the connections of knowledge as well as tests of truth)
psychology (so that people thwart the dirty tricks of con artists of all kinds, including Trump-like demagogues)
statistics (to find criteria for making wise decisions based on numerical data)
comparative political systems (so people know what is wrong with undemocratic systems, and why body counts correlate to tyranny irrespective of the ideological raiment)
music appreciation (at the least, jazz, ragtime, folk, the blues, and above all classical so that people can have something to latch onto)

In case you don't think it important, this work

 



was once all it took to convince me to not commit suicide in a very bad time. Music with generic titles from a time long ago still speaks to the soul as Top-40 schlock does not. 

art appreciation (rich kids go for this as a major... art defines people and civilization. 
a foreign language, which can expand one's cultural universe. 
comparative religion because there is no One Undeniable Truth except for mathematical and physical laws

and, of course, the usual freshmen composition, calculus for those ready for it,  and of course literature.

Add art creation as well as appreciation, music composition and performance freed from modernist dogmas, classic rock and folk-rock music, eastern as well as western philosophy, eastern and southern as well as western culture and history (we are all inheritors of all the world's cultures and they all have value), philosophy based on intuitive direct experience and holistic thinking as well as logic, 20th/21st century science as well as the 17th century variety in which physical and mathematical laws are not so absolute.
Whether Buddhism is religion or philosophy is a huge debate. Maybe we need three philosophy courses and not one.

...Performance of a musical instrument early in life has its value in teaching about some of the most subtle realities of mathematics. I noticed that you did not mention country music (rarely showing any intellectual depth) or rap (awful!)... and yet, mass merchandisers of sound equipment such as Best Buy have their sound systems set up to demonstrate how those systems play back country music (which sounds much alike on anything) and rap, which of course isn't music. I did forget Big Band, which has the merit (like classical music in the time of Haydn and Mozart) of operating on different aesthetic levels at once, which is much more than I can say about country music, let alone rap.

One of the great realities of western civilization is that its center has gone from Europe to an erstwhile safe haven in the northern third of the New World before the center becomes Latin America. Mexico and Brazil are both more populous than any European country except Russia.

Scientific laws are quite rigid, and even the word 'relativity' doesn't quite express the ultimate reality that everything is relative to the absolute reality of the speed of light in a vacuum. Quantum physics is a playground for a few experts.
(09-16-2020, 01:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Whether Buddhism is religion or philosophy is a huge debate. Maybe we need three philosophy courses and not one.

Indeed. In college, where I majored in philosophy, at least we had some eastern courses included.

Quote:...Performance of a musical instrument early in life has its value in teaching about some of the most subtle realities of mathematics. I noticed that you did not mention country music (rarely showing any intellectual depth) or rap (awful!)... and yet, mass merchandisers of sound equipment such as Best Buy have their sound systems set up to demonstrate how those systems play back country music (which sounds much alike on anything) and rap, which of course isn't music. I did forget Big Band, which has the merit (like classical music in the time of Haydn and Mozart) of operating on different aesthetic levels at once, which is much more than I can say about country music, let alone rap.

Thanks for your reply. When I saw that you said "music appreciation (at the least, jazz, ragtime, folk, the blues..." I had to mention at least one other genre; certainly there are other non-classical ones that are worthy of appreciation besides those, and people who consider themselves scholars don't all agree with you or myself on which ones. I happen to agree with you about country and rap-- and usually about commercial pop too (it is no longer the top 40 genre; surveys are rare on the local level, whereas national surveys like Billboard are still around).

Quote:One of the great realities of western civilization is that its center has gone from Europe to an erstwhile safe haven in the northern third of the New World before the center becomes Latin America. Mexico and Brazil are both more populous than any European country except Russia.

I thought that the center was crossing the pacific where east and west would meet, as the Pacific Rim becomes the center, as it is doing. I'm not so sure the center will go south. It certainly must meet the east first, which is the other great current which has been moving toward the west already from the opposite direction.

Quote:Scientific laws are quite rigid, and even the word 'relativity' doesn't quite express the ultimate reality that everything is relative to the absolute reality of the speed of light in a vacuum. Quantum physics is a playground for a few experts.

Not agreed there; quantum physics is becoming consensus reality, and those absolutes of relativity are shaky and shifty. Science is no more solid than religion or philosophy, which are the first foundations of everything. Science is just the latest consensus view, and it undergoes periodic revolutions in which its paradigms shift. Uncertainty is now a first principle in science.

But perhaps you can make any of those three your foundation. I like to think there are 4 modes of knowledge that fit into the four directions on the philosopherswheel (science vs. religion-- esoteric and mystical rather than just traditional belief, which is the vertical axis; crossing with arts vs rational philosophy). Other kinds of knowledge are practical applications of these. You can start from any one of the four kinds of knowledge to meet the other three, and find the right synthesis that seems right for you in this lifetime, if you are a seeker of truth and wisdom and/or the practical applications thereof.

The knowledge which one chooses to learn, sticks with you much longer than the required courses. Education is just a starting point that only supplements and helps somewhat to canalize the talents and aspirations you bring into this life, and help you fit into society as it currently exists. We go on to discover much more for ourselves, and from our family and from those we meet at all ages. What we most need is not taught in school, including the liberal arts. Social knowledge for one, which I have a limited mastery of. And there's physical education and inherent athletic skill, energy and health, and everything in our experience of life in all its dimensions, and its inherent wonder and beauty-- which our primary teacher; the divine spirit within and in all. In discovering the other things, we need to undo a lot of our education and see beyond consensus reality. A lot of technical, clerical and mechanical skills people use on the job don't seem to be taught much in school, but on the job itself or through inherent talents unfolding. But basic education in math and reading certainly helps. One of my college teachers said higher liberal education is all about giving shape and form to your ideas.
(09-15-2020, 11:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The difference between Trump and previous candidates is stark. Back in 1976, Republican Gerald Ford ran for election and made one gaffe at a debate, saying Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and it cost him the election. Nixon lost a debate to JFK because Nixon looked nervous and sweated on TV and it cost him the election. Michael Dukakis' numbers plummeted just because he rode around in a tank and because an ad accused him of letting Willie Horton off easy. Al Gore lunged toward Bush in a menacing way in a debate and it hurt his chances. George Bush seemed aloof compared to Bill Clinton in a debate and it cost Bush. Hillary correctly labeled some of Trump's supporters as deplorable and it hurt her numbers. Even in 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin made gaffes about seeing Russia from her window, and it hurt McCain.

Trump can say he could go out on 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose any voters, OK? (and maybe he actually just did something like that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y345hhC8N1c ) He can say McCain was not a hero because he was captured, insult a gold star parent, and call USA soldiers who die "losers and suckers," and still no-one deserts him. He can promise that protesters will be carried out on stretchers and ask his followers to punch them, and they do. He can make fun of handicapped people all he wants, and does not suffer the fate of Reagan's Interior Secretary James Watt in 1982 who merely used the word "cripple." He can tell people to vote twice, and openly and admittedly lie and cover up that he knew all about the coronavirus that has killed 200,000 Americans under his watch, but called it nothing to be concerned about and did very little about it. He can lie about paying off a prostitute, and call climate change a Chinese hoax that science knows nothing about. He can openly ask foreign leaders to interfere in our elections. He can call the press the enemy of the people. He can call a mexican-american judge who rules against him a so-called judge. He can accuse his opponent's father of assassinating JFK. He can say he believes Putin more than his own intelligence agencies. He can say that Nazis are good people, and welcomes support from QAnon. He can label Latin American refugees seeking to cross the US border as non-existent "caravans of terrorists." He can ask his attorney general to interfere with the administration of justice. He can gas peaceful protesters outside the White House to make way for a Bible photo op, and send his goons to Portland OR to take innocent people off the streets. There is no end of his gaffes, and yet he suffers no loss of support for any of them.

The debate will cause no loss in Trump's poll numbers. He will keep at least 42%. He can make any gaffe, and even sound like he's half asleep, and it will make no difference to the followers of their dear leader Daddy. He lost three debates to Hillary, and hovered over her threateningly, and still won the electoral college. The best that can happen is that Biden picks up a point or two by reassuring a few undecided voters that is he up to the job.

Trump is a cult leader, an authoritarian tyrant with hypnotic power. If he wins, we go the way of Italy in the 1920s and 30s, whose dear leader promised to make his country great again.
I heard pardoning Nixon costed Ford the election back in 1976. I also heard that Nixon's five o'clock shadow and some signs of stage fright during the 1st nationally televised debate cost him the election. I agree, if Trump wins then California could end up going the way of Italy or Spain in the 1920's and 30's or modern day Russia and China or end up broke and being used a pawn by China like Cuba or modern day Venezuela.
(09-16-2020, 01:19 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-15-2020, 11:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The difference between Trump and previous candidates is stark. Back in 1976, Republican Gerald Ford ran for election and made one gaffe at a debate, saying Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and it cost him the election. Nixon lost a debate to JFK because Nixon looked nervous and sweated on TV and it cost him the election. Michael Dukakis' numbers plummeted just because he rode around in a tank and because an ad accused him of letting Willie Horton off easy. Al Gore lunged toward Bush in a menacing way in a debate and it hurt his chances. George Bush seemed aloof compared to Bill Clinton in a debate and it cost Bush. Hillary correctly labeled some of Trump's supporters as deplorable and it hurt her numbers. Even in 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin made gaffes about seeing Russia from her window, and it hurt McCain.

Trump can say he could go out on 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose any voters, OK? (and maybe he actually just did something like that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y345hhC8N1c ) He can say McCain was not a hero because he was captured, insult a gold star parent, and call USA soldiers who die "losers and suckers," and still no-one deserts him. He can promise that protesters will be carried out on stretchers and ask his followers to punch them, and they do. He can make fun of handicapped people all he wants, and does not suffer the fate of Reagan's Interior Secretary James Watt in 1982 who merely used the word "cripple." He can tell people to vote twice, and openly and admittedly lie and cover up that he knew all about the coronavirus that has killed 200,000 Americans under his watch, but called it nothing to be concerned about and did very little about it. He can lie about paying off a prostitute, and call climate change a Chinese hoax that science knows nothing about. He can openly ask foreign leaders to interfere in our elections. He can call the press the enemy of the people. He can call a mexican-american judge who rules against him a so-called judge. He can accuse his opponent's father of assassinating JFK. He can say he believes Putin more than his own intelligence agencies. He can say that Nazis are good people, and welcomes support from QAnon. He can label Latin American refugees seeking to cross the US border as non-existent "caravans of terrorists." He can ask his attorney general to interfere with the administration of justice. He can gas peaceful protesters outside the White House to make way for a Bible photo op, and send his goons to Portland OR to take innocent people off the streets. There is no end of his gaffes, and yet he suffers no loss of support for any of them.

The debate will cause no loss in Trump's poll numbers. He will keep at least 42%. He can make any gaffe, and even sound like he's half asleep, and it will make no difference to the followers of their dear leader Daddy. He lost three debates to Hillary, and hovered over her threateningly, and still won the electoral college. The best that can happen is that Biden picks up a point or two by reassuring a few undecided voters that is he up to the job.

Trump is a cult leader, an authoritarian tyrant with hypnotic power. If he wins, we go the way of Italy in the 1920s and 30s, whose dear leader promised to make his country great again.
I heard pardoning Nixon costed Ford the election back in 1976. I also heard that Nixon's five o'clock shadow and some signs of stage fright during the 1st nationally televised debate cost him the election. I agree, if Trump wins then California could end up going the way of Italy or Spain in the 1920's and 30's or modern day Russia and China or end up broke and being used a pawn by China  like Cuba or modern day Venezuela.

You are indeed a sheeple. You are a cult follower, using the language of your dear leader and following him into hell.
Fivethirtyeight vote % averages for Sept.17, 5 PM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

National Biden +6.6

Arizona Biden +4.3
Colorado Biden +9.8
Florida Biden +2.0
Georgia Trump +1.5
Iowa Trump +2.0
Kansas Trump +9.7
Michigan Biden +7.4
Minnesota Biden +8.8
Missouri Trump +6.9
Montana Trump +8.7
Nevada Biden +5.3
New Hampshire Biden +6.5
North Carolina Biden +1.2
Ohio Trump +1.4
Pennsylvania Biden +4.8
South Carolina Trump +7.2
Texas Trump +1.4
Virginia Biden +10.8
Wisconsin Biden +6.8

No changes to the map, but drifting slightly in the wrong direction. Except in Classic Xer's home state.
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid57002

Even a 6.6% margin is way too low, defining the USA as a sick nation to the core IMO.

270towin polling averages in key states. Sept.17, 5 PM EDT
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling

AZ Biden +4.8
CO Biden +10.6
FL Biden +2.3
GA Trump +0.5
IA Trump +2.0
ME Biden +17.5
MI Biden +7.4
MN Biden +9.4
MO Trump +8
MT Trump +5.5
NC Biden +1.2
NH Biden +5.5
NV Biden +4.5
OH Trump +0.3
PA Biden +5
SC Trump +6.0
TX Trump +1.3
WI Biden +6.6
First slight uptick in a week or so for Biden, so I feel the need to re-post the poll averages today. I hope it sticks and continues.

Fivethirtyeight vote % averages for Sept.18, 6 PM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +6.7

Arizona Biden +4.8
Colorado Biden +9.9
Florida Biden +2.2
Georgia Trump +1.4
Iowa Trump +1.8
Kansas Trump +9.5
Michigan Biden +7.7
Minnesota Biden +8.8
Missouri Trump +6.7
Montana Trump +8.5
Nevada Biden +5.5
New Hampshire Biden +6.7
North Carolina Biden +1.2
Ohio Trump +1.5
Pennsylvania Biden +4.9
South Carolina Trump +7.1
Texas Trump +1.2
Virginia Biden +11
Wisconsin Biden +6.7
From the polls I'm reading, Trump is starting to narrow it down in Florida to the point it is neck and neck. Pennsylvania is getting pretty tight too. This is starting to remind me again of 2016. Which means Trump is starting to capitalise on that law and order message.

I agree with Eric though. In normal presidential times, Trump would have been impeached or faced some tribunal or something. Yet these are not normal times. It's hard to imagine Nixon had to resign over Watergate... 

Honestly, the US right now is starting to resemble something like a banana Republic.
(09-18-2020, 03:23 PM)Isoko Wrote: [ -> ]From the polls I'm reading, Trump is starting to narrow it down in Florida to the point it is neck and neck. Pennsylvania is getting pretty tight too. This is starting to remind me again of 2016. Which means Trump is starting to capitalise on that law and order message.

I agree with Eric though. In normal presidential times, Trump would have been impeached or faced some tribunal or something. Yet these are not normal times. It's hard to imagine Nixon had to resign over Watergate... 

Honestly, the US right now is starting to resemble something like a banana Republic.
One could look at it another way and say, in normal Presidential times, the Democrats would've have been able to be forced to do something stupid like impeach Trump without evidence or make an attempt to illegally remove him from office? As I've mentioned, we have several Democratic states that are already viewed as banana Republics and several American states who have no interest in becoming more like them and when the two eventually clash we know what's going to happen to the banana Republics. Eric doesn't want to see it or accept the consequences of being associated with years of stupidity and turning democracy into a means to raise wages, provide free healthcare and advance via race or gender or sexual preference and creates alternative avenues for imbeciles to enter office and make millions by seeming to oppose but eventually going along for the ride. You think it's ugly now, what you see now is CHILD'S PLAY compared to what you're going to see when the American right decides it time to intervene and start scaring the shit out of Democrats by slaughtering a bunch of their rioters and lynching some spoiled rotten rich kids directly associated with the Liberal elites. I can tell you this, their fucked up kids will find no sympathy among us or the working class people they seem OK with disrupting and destroying right now. Shit, I care more about the working class minorities than the fucking big city clowns who are paid to care about them, provide adequate protection/security for their neighborhoods and business's. It's pretty clear that you're only getting half the information you need to make an accurate assessment.
(09-16-2020, 10:26 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-16-2020, 01:19 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-15-2020, 11:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The difference between Trump and previous candidates is stark. Back in 1976, Republican Gerald Ford ran for election and made one gaffe at a debate, saying Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and it cost him the election. Nixon lost a debate to JFK because Nixon looked nervous and sweated on TV and it cost him the election. Michael Dukakis' numbers plummeted just because he rode around in a tank and because an ad accused him of letting Willie Horton off easy. Al Gore lunged toward Bush in a menacing way in a debate and it hurt his chances. George Bush seemed aloof compared to Bill Clinton in a debate and it cost Bush. Hillary correctly labeled some of Trump's supporters as deplorable and it hurt her numbers. Even in 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin made gaffes about seeing Russia from her window, and it hurt McCain.

Trump can say he could go out on 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose any voters, OK? (and maybe he actually just did something like that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y345hhC8N1c ) He can say McCain was not a hero because he was captured, insult a gold star parent, and call USA soldiers who die "losers and suckers," and still no-one deserts him. He can promise that protesters will be carried out on stretchers and ask his followers to punch them, and they do. He can make fun of handicapped people all he wants, and does not suffer the fate of Reagan's Interior Secretary James Watt in 1982 who merely used the word "cripple." He can tell people to vote twice, and openly and admittedly lie and cover up that he knew all about the coronavirus that has killed 200,000 Americans under his watch, but called it nothing to be concerned about and did very little about it. He can lie about paying off a prostitute, and call climate change a Chinese hoax that science knows nothing about. He can openly ask foreign leaders to interfere in our elections. He can call the press the enemy of the people. He can call a mexican-american judge who rules against him a so-called judge. He can accuse his opponent's father of assassinating JFK. He can say he believes Putin more than his own intelligence agencies. He can say that Nazis are good people, and welcomes support from QAnon. He can label Latin American refugees seeking to cross the US border as non-existent "caravans of terrorists." He can ask his attorney general to interfere with the administration of justice. He can gas peaceful protesters outside the White House to make way for a Bible photo op, and send his goons to Portland OR to take innocent people off the streets. There is no end of his gaffes, and yet he suffers no loss of support for any of them.

The debate will cause no loss in Trump's poll numbers. He will keep at least 42%. He can make any gaffe, and even sound like he's half asleep, and it will make no difference to the followers of their dear leader Daddy. He lost three debates to Hillary, and hovered over her threateningly, and still won the electoral college. The best that can happen is that Biden picks up a point or two by reassuring a few undecided voters that is he up to the job.

Trump is a cult leader, an authoritarian tyrant with hypnotic power. If he wins, we go the way of Italy in the 1920s and 30s, whose dear leader promised to make his country great again.
I heard pardoning Nixon costed Ford the election back in 1976. I also heard that Nixon's five o'clock shadow and some signs of stage fright during the 1st nationally televised debate cost him the election. I agree, if Trump wins then California could end up going the way of Italy or Spain in the 1920's and 30's or modern day Russia and China or end up broke and being used a pawn by China  like Cuba or modern day Venezuela.

You are indeed a sheeple. You are a cult follower, using the language of your dear leader and following him into hell.
Funny. A sheeple calling an individual a sheeple. The sheeple as you say aren't capable of doing what I've been doing for years. As far as Hell, who's getting a glimpse of Hell and breathing (receiving a unhealthy) a dose of typical Communist Chinese level air quality at the same time? Ain't me. All I saw was a couple of cloudy days that should've have been sunny/partly cloudy days. What's even funnier, I was trashing Liberals and directly fighting with Liberals for over a decade before Trump ran for office.
(09-18-2020, 06:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-16-2020, 10:26 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-16-2020, 01:19 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-15-2020, 11:42 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The difference between Trump and previous candidates is stark. Back in 1976, Republican Gerald Ford ran for election and made one gaffe at a debate, saying Eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination, and it cost him the election. Nixon lost a debate to JFK because Nixon looked nervous and sweated on TV and it cost him the election. Michael Dukakis' numbers plummeted just because he rode around in a tank and because an ad accused him of letting Willie Horton off easy. Al Gore lunged toward Bush in a menacing way in a debate and it hurt his chances. George Bush seemed aloof compared to Bill Clinton in a debate and it cost Bush. Hillary correctly labeled some of Trump's supporters as deplorable and it hurt her numbers. Even in 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin made gaffes about seeing Russia from her window, and it hurt McCain.

Trump can say he could go out on 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and he wouldn't lose any voters, OK? (and maybe he actually just did something like that? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y345hhC8N1c ) He can say McCain was not a hero because he was captured, insult a gold star parent, and call USA soldiers who die "losers and suckers," and still no-one deserts him. He can promise that protesters will be carried out on stretchers and ask his followers to punch them, and they do. He can make fun of handicapped people all he wants, and does not suffer the fate of Reagan's Interior Secretary James Watt in 1982 who merely used the word "cripple." He can tell people to vote twice, and openly and admittedly lie and cover up that he knew all about the coronavirus that has killed 200,000 Americans under his watch, but called it nothing to be concerned about and did very little about it. He can lie about paying off a prostitute, and call climate change a Chinese hoax that science knows nothing about. He can openly ask foreign leaders to interfere in our elections. He can call the press the enemy of the people. He can call a mexican-american judge who rules against him a so-called judge. He can accuse his opponent's father of assassinating JFK. He can say he believes Putin more than his own intelligence agencies. He can say that Nazis are good people, and welcomes support from QAnon. He can label Latin American refugees seeking to cross the US border as non-existent "caravans of terrorists." He can ask his attorney general to interfere with the administration of justice. He can gas peaceful protesters outside the White House to make way for a Bible photo op, and send his goons to Portland OR to take innocent people off the streets. There is no end of his gaffes, and yet he suffers no loss of support for any of them.

The debate will cause no loss in Trump's poll numbers. He will keep at least 42%. He can make any gaffe, and even sound like he's half asleep, and it will make no difference to the followers of their dear leader Daddy. He lost three debates to Hillary, and hovered over her threateningly, and still won the electoral college. The best that can happen is that Biden picks up a point or two by reassuring a few undecided voters that is he up to the job.

Trump is a cult leader, an authoritarian tyrant with hypnotic power. If he wins, we go the way of Italy in the 1920s and 30s, whose dear leader promised to make his country great again.
I heard pardoning Nixon costed Ford the election back in 1976. I also heard that Nixon's five o'clock shadow and some signs of stage fright during the 1st nationally televised debate cost him the election. I agree, if Trump wins then California could end up going the way of Italy or Spain in the 1920's and 30's or modern day Russia and China or end up broke and being used a pawn by China  like Cuba or modern day Venezuela.

You are indeed a sheeple. You are a cult follower, using the language of your dear leader and following him into hell.
Funny. A sheeple calling an individual a sheeple. The sheeple as you say aren't capable of doing what I've been doing for years. As far as Hell, who's getting a glimpse of Hell and breathing (receiving a unhealthy) a dose of typical Communist Chinese level air quality at the same time? Ain't me. All I saw was a couple of cloudy days that should've have been sunny/partly cloudy days. What's even funnier, I was trashing Liberals and directly fighting with Liberals for over a decade before Trump ran for office.

Like most of you conservative fools, you have now swallowed Trump hook line and sinker and you guys are nothing but Trump clone sheeple, period. Yes CA indeed looked like hell for a few weeks, and is still hazy, but not only have you guys directly and cruelly caused this and imposed this on us, but you guys in the midwest are getting yours too. Did you happen to notice that a good part of northern Iowa was taken out by rampaging waters recently? That's pretty hellish too. Floods, droughts, storms are coming your way too, and it's all your fault. If Minnesota and Iowa have any sense, they will vote themselves out of this rampage. MN is going the right way for now; I hope it continues, and IA follows.
(09-18-2020, 04:59 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-18-2020, 03:23 PM)Isoko Wrote: [ -> ]From the polls I'm reading, Trump is starting to narrow it down in Florida to the point it is neck and neck. Pennsylvania is getting pretty tight too. This is starting to remind me again of 2016. Which means Trump is starting to capitalise on that law and order message.

I agree with Eric though. In normal presidential times, Trump would have been impeached or faced some tribunal or something. Yet these are not normal times. It's hard to imagine Nixon had to resign over Watergate... 

Honestly, the US right now is starting to resemble something like a banana Republic.

One could look at it another way and say, in normal Presidential times, the Democrats would've have been able to be forced to do something stupid like impeach Trump without evidence or make an attempt to illegally remove him from office?

Once President Trump attempted to blackmail the President of another country to announce an investigation (a valid investigation would go secretly) of the son of a likely challenger to him, the Democrats had to impeach him. The deed was so abusive, corrupt, and egregious that impeachment was necessary irrespective of the political consequences. There was no shortage of evidence against him. Trump got off on a partisan vote to acquit, but an impeachment vote can result in some form of censure that would have been a warning of some kind, if not more than a slap on the wrist. In a nearly-partisan split, Republicans prevented even that.

Impeachment is not the equivalent of a parliamentary vote of no confidence. It is no triviality. 

If a Democrat had done something like what Trump did, then you would be screaming bloody murder. So would I, but remember: most of us Democrats insist upon integrity in the people that we elect. 


Quote:As I've mentioned, we have several Democratic states that are already viewed as banana Republics and several American states who have no interest in becoming more like them and when the two eventually clash we know what's going to happen to the banana Republics. Eric doesn't want to see it or accept the consequences of being associated with years of stupidity and turning democracy into a means to raise wages, provide free healthcare and advance via race or gender or sexual preference and creates alternative avenues for imbeciles to enter office and make millions by seeming to oppose but eventually going along for the ride.

For real incompetence, look at the infection rates now among the states for SARS-2. Lethal respiratory infections are rare in First World countries except among people with very bad habits (like IV drug use) or compromised immune systems (HIV/AIDS, congestive heart failure, emphysema, cancer, etc.) The total of deaths in America has reached 200,000, which is bigger than such places as Tallahassee, Florida; Akron, Ohio (home of Goodyear Tire Company):: Little Rock, Arkansas; Montgomery, Alabama; Yonkers, New York (yes it is a suburb, but it has had some independence in the past); Augusta, Georgia (home of the Masters Tournament that got cancelled this year),  with the number just passing Amarillo, Texas. 

Coming soon? Salt Lake City (home of the one branch of Christianity founded in America, the Church of Latter Day Saints, a/k/a Mormons), Huntsville, Alabama (home of American rocket development); Grand Rapids, Michigan (home of our 38th President Gerald Ford, whom Trump makes look great by contrast), and Des Moines, Iowa. At 210,000 we get what used to be the Camera City, a/k/a Rochester, New York. 

How states responded has mattered greatly. My state, Michigan, got hit early and hard and at one point was fourth in infections and deaths. It is now ninth. Of course we would have rather that there be far fewer infections and deaths from the Trump Plague One thing that will not recover in Michigan is Donald Trump's chance of winning Michigan; the matchups typically have Trump behind 7 to 10%, which might not be all due to COVID-19. 

The real slaughter from COVID-19 is starting to appear in the Third World, at least in countries that like the United States have very poor social safety nets.    

.....

Now for real stupidity: elective office does not operate in accordance with affirmative action. Second, democracy implies the right to use the political system for attempts to improve the conditions of voters. We are not free to do everything except contest our economic conditions.    

Quote:You think it's ugly now, what you see now is CHILD'S PLAY compared to what you're going to see when the American right decides it time to intervene and start scaring the shit out of Democrats by slaughtering a bunch of their rioters and lynching some spoiled rotten rich kids directly associated with the Liberal elites. I can tell you this, their fucked up kids will find no sympathy among us or the working class people they seem OK with disrupting and destroying right now. Shit, I care more about the working class minorities than the fucking big city clowns who are paid to care about them, provide adequate protection/security for their neighborhoods and business's. It's pretty clear that you're only getting half the information you need to make an accurate assessment.

Vigilante activity is itself lawlessness. You practically suggest a state of insurrection in which people who hold opinions different from those of people with views like yours can shoot wildly into crowds that may include both peaceful protesters and rioters alike. Rioters and looters deserve the special attention of law enforcement because peaceful protests are lawful and exploiting a peaceful protest with felony crimes is... well... crime. Peaceful protesters cannot be counted upon as friends of looters and rioters. 

Lynching is also lawlessness. Lynching spoiled-rotten kids of the economic elite sounds familiar. Bolshevism, maybe?

Get help.
Official: Toilet display mocking mail-in voting is a crime

MASON, Mich. (AP) — A Michigan resident’s apparent joke showing disdain for voting by mail is no laughing matter for one local elections official.

The resident put a toilet on their lawn with a sign that says, “Place mail in ballots here.”

Barb Byrum, the Democratic clerk of Ingham County, filed a complaint with police over the display, saying it could mislead people who aren’t familiar with the voting system.

“It is a felony to take illegal possession of an absentee ballot,” Byrum said Friday. “Elections in this country are to be taken seriously and there are many people who are voting by mail for the first time this election,” she said.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that voting by mail could lead to fraud and spoil the election, making distorted claims that elections officials fear could cause anxiety and confusion among voters.

It’s the “safest way to vote during the pandemic,” Byrum said.

She didn’t identify the person who lives at the address. The lawn also has a sign that calls for the recall of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

No one answered the door Friday night, the Lansing State Journal reported.

More than 2 million Michigan voters could cast absentee ballots after changes in election law. Separately, a judge on Friday said absentee ballots postmarked by Nov. 2 can be counted if received within 14 days after the Nov. 3 election.

___

AP’s Advance Voting guide brings you the facts about voting early, by mail or absentee from each state: https://interactives.ap.org/advance-voting-2020/

https://apnews.com/152f0b78d84e11ccaf0df8a2c800903a

Comments:

1. Mason, Michigan is the county seat of Ingham County, Michigan, whose largest city is Lansing. 

2. Absentee ballots should not be flushed down toilets, anyway. They would cause a nasty clog. Aside from that, voting rights matter.

3. Personal: I voted yesterday.
Geez, now Trump has said he would like to sign an executive order banning Biden from running for president. Now that is not right. Look, I don't like Biden and think he is a very weak candidate but that just draws the line for me. It is a democratic election and stating you'd like the other guy banned from running is just not right.