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Bart Gellman of The Atlantic describes how Trump will try to steal the election.

The Atlantic Daily: A Q&A With Barton Gellman
No matter the outcome, President Donald Trump will not concede the presidential race, our reporter posits.

CAROLINE MIMBS NYCE
SEPTEMBER 23, 2020

Bart and I caught up over email to discuss the ways America’s election mechanisms might break down entirely.
The conversation that follows has been edited and condensed.

Caroline Mimbs Nyce: So what happens if President Trump refuses to concede the election?

Barton Gellman: I don’t think it’s a question of “if.” Unless Trump scores a legitimate win in the Electoral College, everything we know about him says he will refuse to accept defeat and use every tool at his disposal to undo the result.

Refusing to concede is a remarkably powerful thing. Concessions are how elections end, full stop.

Trump will have plenty of options to keep the outcome in doubt—in court, on the streets, in the Electoral College, and in Congress. The subtext of his efforts will be that “nobody knows” who won, and that he is stepping in to restore stability.

Caroline: You argue that the president could use his powers to muddle the results, leaving no clear procedural winner. How so?

Bart: Unlike baseball, elections have no umpire—no singular authority with the power to rule decisively on the results.
The most significant risk is that Trump will ask Republican allies in battleground states to appoint Trump electors regardless of the outcome. We’re accustomed to choosing electors by popular vote, but the Supreme Court has said a state legislature may take back that power from the people and name any electors it likes.

According to a legal adviser to Trump and three top Republican leaders in Pennsylvania, they are already discussing contingency plans to set aside the voting results—by claiming the vote count is rigged. Republicans control the House and Senate in all six of the most closely contested swing states.

Caroline: There are many frightening details in your piece. Is there one that keeps you up at night?

Bart: What frightens me is that Trump has the power, with only modest help from GOP elected officials, to throw the outcome into doubt and to keep it unresolved almost indefinitely. And if he throws the decision to Congress, which he can do almost at will, the law is a labyrinth full of dead ends when it comes to how that’s resolved. Experts tell me that the Electoral Count Act is so garbled and full of logic bombs that it can easily lead to deadlock.

If two men show up to be sworn in on January 20, the chaos candidate and the commander in chief will be the same man.

Caroline: What’s your best advice to Americans going into November?

Bart: First and foremost, stop thinking about this election in conventional terms. Expect an extra-constitutional challenge, because it is very probably coming.

Take agency, because an election can’t be stolen without some kind of acquiescence from the people at large. So don’t acquiesce.
Vote. Vote early if your state allows. Vote in person if you can tolerate the risk, because late-counted mail votes will be the heart of the postelection contest.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...de/616424/
(09-25-2020, 03:20 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-24-2020, 08:20 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]When your political agenda is nothing more than "stick it to the opponents", you eventually end up in the position in which others stick it  to you. It's a primitive attitude, one that some people never outgrow.

You're a logical man at times. It's too bad that you're not able to see and equally apply these days. "Stick it to the opponents" seems to be the common theme of both sides these days vs the common theme of the Liberal side. I assume the old social buffers and protections that still existed back then no longer exists today which means we are much closer to directly responding to each other with violence or equal in kind than we were twenty years ago. I have to say, you aren't as hard to attack and criticize as you're Liberal predecessors were back then. Plus, Karma's a bitch.

Did you think that anyone would respond to someone like the late Charles Manson by showering him with honors and rewarding him with comfort and indulgence? He had to know as long as he lived that Humanity in general despised him. 

We liberals have learned a few things; we can refine our view of the universe when we discover that much of what we think we know simply isn't so. Speaking of crime, we used to believe that crime was the consequence of poverty, or as one of the bad kids in West Side Story says "I'm depraved on account of how I'm deprived". 



Quote:Hey you, who me Officer Krupke?
Yeah, you, give me one good reason
For not draggin' you down to the station house
You punk

Dear, dear, dear kindly Sergeant Krupke you gotta understand
It's just our bringin' up-ke that gets us out of hand
Our mothers all are junkies, our fathers all are drunks
Golly Moses, naturally we're punks

Gee, Officer Krupke we're very upset
We never had the love that every child oughta get
We ain't no delinquents, we're misunderstood
Deep down inside us there is good

There is good, there is good
There is good, there is untapped good
Like inside the worst of us is good
Oh, look at that good, good baby
That's a nice baby actually, yeah

Oh, that's a touchin' good story
Oh well, lemme tell it to the world
Just tell it to the judge
Ooh yeah, judge, that's a good idea, stop

Dear kindly judge, your honor, my parents treat me rough
With all their marijuana they won't give me a puff
They didn't wanna have me but somehow I was had
Leapin' lizards, that's why I'm so bad

Right, Officer Krupke you're really a square
This boy don't need a judge, he needs an analyst's care
It's just his neurosis that oughta be curbed
He's psychologically disturbed

I'm disturbed
We're disturbed, we're disturbed
We're the most disturbed
Like we're psychologically disturbed

Hear ye, hear ye, in the opinion on this court
This child is depraved on account
He ain't had a normal home
Hey, I'm depraved on account I'm deprived

So take him to a headshrinker
Oh no, goodbye buddy boy

My father's a bastard, my ma's an S.O.B
My grandpa's always plastered, my grandma pushes tea
My sister wears a mustache, my brother wears a dress
Goodness gracious, that's why I'm a mess

Yes, Officer Krupke you're really a slob
This boy don't need a doctor just a good honest job
Society's played him a terrible trick
And sociologically he's sick

I am sick
We are sick, we are sick
We are sick, sick, sick,
Like we're sociologically sick, oh yeah

In my opinion this child don't need to have his head shrunk at all
Juvenile delinquency is purely a social disease
Hey, I got a social disease
So take him to a social worker

Dear kindly, social worker, they say go earn a buck
Like be a soda jerker which means like be a schmuck
It's not I'm antisocial, I'm only anti-work
Gloryosky, that's why I'm a jerk

Officer Krupke, you've done it again
This boy don't need a job, he needs a year in the pen
It ain't just a question of misunderstood
Deep down inside him he's no good

I'm no good
We're no good, we're no good
We're no earthly good
Like the best of us is no damn good

The trouble is he's crazy, the trouble is he drinks
The trouble is he's lazy, the trouble is he stinks
The trouble is he's growing, the trouble is he's grown
Krupke, we got troubles of our own

Gee, Officer Krupke we're down on our knees
'Cause no one wants a fellow with a social disease
Gee, Officer Krupke what are we to do?
Gee, Officer Krupke, Krup you


http://www.songlyrics.com/west-side-stor...ke-lyrics/


Lots of good people live in bad neighborhoods and have limited opportunities, which explains why "community organizers" can operate in the classic "bad neighborhoods" without being killed, robbed, and raped. As it turns out, a few sociopaths do the vast majority of the crime.  People are not depraved on "account of how they are deprived". Democracy, when it works well, gives people the means of challenging their deprivation -- part of which includes appealing to the goodness of people not deprived. With these punks mocking Officer Krupke and the System as a whole while not taking the first step out of poverty (taking a job). 

So Dad is born out of wedlock, his mother is a Nasty Woman, his grandfather is drunk, and his grandmother deals illegal substances (back then "tea" was slang for marijuana).   A version that I thought I heard has "my grandpa is a Commie". Well, there are variants. 

....................   

It's not good to live among unloving parents, to face abuse and neglect or (almost as bad) a careening between being pushed into the background and indulged lavishly*. Being rejected for being gay or identifying with a different religion or culture is not good for some minimal need for self esteem. Evil can come from people who supposedly have all the advantages; some of the most egregious perpetrators of the Holocaust were aristocrats who could wallow in luxuriant excess for being born into the right family. Then you figure that aristocratic elites see themselves entitled to everything while everyone else is responsible to them above all self interest, family loyalty, and normal standards of principle. America may have no formal aristocracy, but it has supposedly well-off people acting badly because they can get away with it and even get benefits for themselves from such.
 
When we were not so polarized into tribes (in this I could be speaking like Bob Butler) as we are now we better recognized that people from different social backgrounds, from different religions, and even from different regions didn't matter so much. Maybe there is nothing like shared menace to bring people together. Some people identify with the menace, but in the end, reason prevails with most.

*Which may explain why America's quasi-aristocracy often puts its kids into pricey boarding schools with a controlled environment.
Trump's plans to have electors appointed by Republican legislatures, and confirm a new justice before the election who will uphold this procedure and all his court challenges, needs to be stopped by all available means. I am contacting my senators and I urge all concerned to do likewise.
What will happen to Bob Butler's proposal that in the information age, important matters will be resolved by legislation, if legislators refuse to act to stop this nomination, or failing that, fail to reform the filibuster and the Court if they win the election?

A 6-3 conservative majority will NOT protect the constitution. They will protect conservative power and Trump's coup! Health care reform, action on climate change, protection of workers and consumers, fair wages, bringing back democracy to the USA, reform of police brutality and systemic racism; all these and more will not be allowed by this Court. The 40 year stalemate that began with installation of the charming faux-macho actor into the White House will just continue indefinitely, ruining our republic and our world. Trump must be stopped by any means necessary!



One of the rules of Olympic competitions is that if one cheats and gets an apparent win, then one loses. So it is with performance-enhancing substances banned by the IOC. Finishing first at a race or lasting longest in a weight-lifting contest leads to a loss of any medal and the potential for banning from competition for a very long time. Basically, if you cheat you lose.

A precedent for denying the Presidency to a cheater does not exist in American history. It exists in a country whose original founders established a political structure for whom the model was the United States of America. The Presidential election of 1986 in the Philippines devolved upon the military deciding that electoral misconduct that the incumbent President had directed effectively disqualified then-President Ferdinand Marcos in favor of Corazon Aquino.
(09-26-2020, 12:25 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]One of the rules of Olympic competitions is that if one cheats and gets an apparent win, then one loses. So it is with performance-enhancing substances banned by the IOC. Finishing first at a race or lasting longest in a weight-lifting contest leads to a loss of any medal and the potential for banning from competition for a very long time. Basically, if you cheat you lose.

A precedent for denying the Presidency to a cheater does not exist in American history. It exists in a country whose original founders established a political structure for whom the model was the United States of America. The Presidential election of 1986 in the Philippines devolved upon the military deciding that electoral misconduct that the incumbent President had directed effectively disqualified then-President Ferdinand Marcos in favor of Corazon Aquino.

Nitpick.  Essentially true, but there is a long tradition that those impeached can no longer serve in the government.
(09-25-2020, 06:54 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]What will happen to Bob Butler's proposal that in the information age, important matters will be resolved by legislation, if legislators refuse to act to stop this nomination, or failing that, fail to reform the filibuster and the Court if they win the election?

A 6-3 conservative majority will NOT protect the constitution. They will protect conservative power and Trump's coup! Health care reform, action on climate change, protection of workers and consumers, fair wages, bringing back democracy to the USA, reform of police brutality and systemic racism; all these and more will not be allowed by this Court. The 40 year stalemate that began with installation of the charming faux-macho actor into the White House will just continue indefinitely, ruining our republic and our world. Trump must be stopped by any means necessary!

I've heard a lot from legal experts lately that the only true solution is a landslide election that can't be dissected by the courts on any grounds that aren't patently illegal themselves. If they take that step, and try to hand the election to the obvious losers, then anything is permissible -- and God help us.
(09-26-2020, 04:28 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-26-2020, 12:25 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]One of the rules of Olympic competitions is that if one cheats and gets an apparent win, then one loses. So it is with performance-enhancing substances banned by the IOC. Finishing first at a race or lasting longest in a weight-lifting contest leads to a loss of any medal and the potential for banning from competition for a very long time. Basically, if you cheat you lose.

A precedent for denying the Presidency to a cheater does not exist in American history. It exists in a country whose original founders established a political structure for whom the model was the United States of America. The Presidential election of 1986 in the Philippines devolved upon the military deciding that electoral misconduct that the incumbent President had directed effectively disqualified then-President Ferdinand Marcos in favor of Corazon Aquino.

Nitpick.  Essentially true, but there is a long tradition that those impeached can no longer serve in the government.

Impeached and convicted, they can't by Article I, Section 3, paragraph 7 of the US Constitution.  Nothing prevents those found not-guilty from doing as they please -- and therein lies the rub.
(09-26-2020, 10:28 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-25-2020, 06:54 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]What will happen to Bob Butler's proposal that in the information age, important matters will be resolved by legislation, if legislators refuse to act to stop this nomination, or failing that, fail to reform the filibuster and the Court if they win the election?

A 6-3 conservative majority will NOT protect the constitution. They will protect conservative power and Trump's coup! Health care reform, action on climate change, protection of workers and consumers, fair wages, bringing back democracy to the USA, reform of police brutality and systemic racism; all these and more will not be allowed by this Court. The 40 year stalemate that began with installation of the charming faux-macho actor into the White House will just continue indefinitely, ruining our republic and our world. Trump must be stopped by any means necessary!

I've heard a lot from legal experts lately that the only true solution is a landslide election that can't be dissected by the courts on any grounds that aren't patently illegal themselves.  If they take that step, and try to hand the election to the obvious losers, then anything is permissible -- and God help us.

That would be a partial solution. Unless the Democrats use their new majority to reduce or end the filibuster and add more liberal justices to the Court, an electoral victory for Democrats will mean little. Also, it will mean little if Kamala Harris is nominated for president.

Is a landslide victory possible? It depends what you mean. Trump has the automatic loyalty of 43% of the voters, so the maximum vote the Democrats can get in 2020 is about 56%. An electoral college win over 300 votes is possible, but over 400 (as in 1984, 1972 or 1964) is impossible. So I am not sure if a victory on this scale is enough to overpower the courts. The ultimate problem with the USA is found among the people themselves. We have the government and the problems that we voted for.
(09-26-2020, 01:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]That would be a partial solution. Unless the Democrats use their new majority to reduce or end the filibuster and add more liberal justices to the Court, an electoral victory for Democrats will mean little. Also, it will mean little if Kamala Harris is nominated for president.

Is a landslide victory possible? It depends what you mean. Trump has the automatic loyalty of 43% of the voters, so the maximum vote the Democrats can get in 2020 is about 56%. An electoral college win over 300 votes is possible, but over 400 (as in 1984, 1972 or 1964) is impossible. So I am not sure if a victory on this scale is enough to overpower the courts. The ultimate problem with the USA is found among the people themselves. We have the government and the problems that we voted for.

One factor is that so many people live in the Fox bubble. If Biden manages to break the bubble in the debates it might make a difference. But yes, so many of the people got what they voted for, and decline to think it wrong.
Polling averages for Sept.27, 5 AM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +7.3

Arizona Biden +3.6
Colorado Biden +10
Florida Biden +1.7
Georgia Trump +1.1
Iowa Trump +0.8
Kansas Trump +9.0
Louisiana Trump +10.7 
Michigan Biden +6.8
Minnesota Biden +8.7
Missouri Trump +6.8
Montana Trump +8.1
Nevada Biden +6.5
New Hampshire Biden +6.8
North Carolina Biden +1.2
Ohio Biden +1.0
Pennsylvania Biden +4.8
South Carolina Trump +6.9
Texas Trump +1.8
Virginia Biden +10 
Wisconsin Biden +6.4
The predominant ideology of the conservative side among most of its adherents seems to be: "I hate liberals"
(09-26-2020, 01:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The predominant ideology of the conservative side among most of its adherents seems to be: "I hate liberals"

They want super-cheap, cowed labor in their "dark satanic mills" or on their giant plantations (American farming is becoming that, it is sad to say), and cannon fodder to spread their sick way of life into places in which such is unwelcome. 

Donald Trump is more a fascist than a conservative, and his derisive words about soldiers and veterans suggests that if he did get 'his' war for his glorification and the profit of warmongering interests, he would turn American soldiers into cannon fodder for 'liberating' Cuba and Venezuela. Some of his supporters would get 'their' plantations back, and Big Oil would get custody of Venezuelan oil fields. Trump is the worst sort of leader that one could have in war because he so discounts the value of the troops. He has no pity.

It is too late for him to start a war of aggression before he gets re-elected (or steals the election), so defeating the Trumpenstein monster solves that problem for us Americans.

In view of our President's callousness about mass death that has taken over 205,000 lives already, what is another 200,000 in a War for Profit? Count on wars as deadly as those in Korea and Vietnam, only with widespread condemnation of America from countries that we have usually considered good friends.
(09-26-2020, 03:03 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-26-2020, 01:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The predominant ideology of the conservative side among most of its adherents seems to be: "I hate liberals"

They want super-cheap, cowed labor in their "dark satanic mills" or on their giant plantations (American farming is becoming that, it is sad to say), and cannon fodder to spread their sick way of life into places in which such is unwelcome...

Most of the Trumpists out there don't own anything beyond personal and real property.  But they are OK with bad wages and working arrangements if Trump is their leader.  It's an irrational cult -- which is redundant.
Much of the divide between Trump supporters and Trump haters is between homeowners and renters. Trump is above all else a landlord, and to a tenant a landlord is a money drain more than anything else. The biggest expenditure of most people is a landlord, and a landlord can take over half of someone's disposable income if one lives in certain places.

To be sure, much of what people consider rent is taxes and insurance that one would pay if one were a homeowner, so that is some wash... but the landlord is typically the definitive rent-seeker that one cannot escape except, in many cases, going where opportunities are few. It is obviously far easier to own a house in rural Tennessee on the wages of a garage mechanic than to own a house as a software programmer in Silicon Valley or a copywriter in New York City.

I have never heard anyone speak well of landlords as capitalists. They are not innovators except in gouging and in political shenanigans. They are arguably the most reactionary of capitalists. They are in no way job-creators as high-tech pioneers were in the golden days of the Tech Boom. They need little sophistication in business; it is all marketing, and their marketing is simply to find how to find the customer most willing to pay the highest rent.

The easiest way to get fantastically rich in Silicon Valley is not to be a software engineer; it is to be a landlord to a captive base of consumers known as software engineers. My brother is practically a refugee from California housing...

Most people accept capitalism if it shows evidence of competition to better serve customers. Antipathy toward Big Oil seems to correspond with fuel prices that more reflect market conditions than anything else. One has a clear choice to avoid a grocer with poor selection or that charges too much. (Most people know that grocery shopping is a question of buying in quantity or getting convenience.
He (Brad Parscale)  may have been intimately involved with evil, but he deserves our sympathy. Something must have gone very wrong in his life.  

Brad Parscale, President Donald Trump’s former reelection campaign manager, turned himself in to police custody in Florida on Sunday night after his wife called 911 to say he was threatening to harm himself, local media outlets reported.


Officials with the Fort Lauderdale Police Department told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel officers responded to the Parscale home after his wife said he had barricaded himself inside with access to multiple guns.
 
“We went out and it was very short,” Police Chief Karen Dietrich told the publication. “We went and got him help.”

The Sun-Sentinel added that Parscale did not threaten any police officers and went willingly with authorities before he was taken to a hospital for treatment. Local 10, an ABC affiliate, said Parscale was placed under the Baker Act, which allows police to detain anyone who is a potential threat to themselves or others.

Tim Murtaugh, the Trump campaign’s communications director, told NBC News later Sunday that the campaign was “ready to support him and his family in any way possible.”
“Brad Parscale is a member of our family and we all love him,” Murtaugh said in a statement to the publication.

Parscale was demoted in July — just four months before the election — amid the president’s lagging poll numbers and a disastrous rally in Oklahoma. The event was meant to “reboot” Trump’s campaign after a spate of shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic, but despite the president’s claims that just under a million people had requested tickets, only about 6,000 showed up.

He was replaced by Bill Stepien, a longtime political operative who worked for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and had been working as Trump’s deputy campaign manager.
At the time of the shake-up, Trump praised Parscale, who he said had been with the president for “a very long time.”

“I look forward to having a big and very important second win together,” he said in July, noting Parscale would remain a senior adviser to the campaign. “This one should be a lot easier as our poll numbers are rising fast, the economy is getting better, vaccines and therapeutics will soon be on the way, and Americans want safe streets and communities!”

If you or someone you know needs help, call 1-800-273-8255 for the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline. You can also text HOME to 741-741 for free, 24-hour support from the Crisis Text Line. Outside of the U.S., please visit the International Association for Suicide Prevention for a database of resources.

From the Huffington Post.
Polling averages for Sept.28, 11 PM EDT
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +7.0

Arizona Biden +3.5
Colorado Biden +9.9
Florida Biden +1.7
Georgia Trump +1.1
Iowa Trump +0.8
Kansas Trump +9.0
Michigan Biden +6.9
Minnesota Biden +8.7
Missouri Trump +6.8
Montana Trump +8.1
Nevada Biden +6.4
New Hampshire Biden +6.8
North Carolina Biden +1.1
Ohio Biden +1.0
Pennsylvania Biden +5.2
South Carolina Trump +7.6
Texas Trump +1.9
Virginia Biden +10 
Wisconsin Biden +6.8


270towin polling averages Sept.29 12 AM

National Biden +8.2
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

Battleground states:
https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling

Arizona Biden +4
Colorado Biden +10.6
Florida Biden +0.8
Georgia Trump +0.6
Iowa Trump +1.2
Michigan Biden +5.8
Minnesota Biden +8.4
Missouri Trump +8
Montana Trump +6
Nevada Biden +6.7
New Hampshire Biden +6.8
North Carolina Biden +0.8
Ohio Biden +1.2
Pennsylvania Biden +5.6
South Carolina Trump +7.3
Texas Trump +2.6
Virginia Biden +9.5
Wisconsin Biden +7
Why do they call them ‘tell all books’ if they come out every few days?  If one of them really told everything, would you need the others?  Wink

The latest book Rachel is featuring is by Andrew Weissmann, a member of the team that was supposed to do the Mueller Report.  Supposed to.  It seems to tell more about why nothing could be done if you were very aware that the subject of the investigation could fire the investigators.

The consensus was that sometimes it is your job to step on the proverbial landmine.
(09-29-2020, 03:08 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Why do they call them ‘tell all books’ if they come out every few days?  If one of them really told everything, would you need the others?  Wink

The latest book Rachel is featuring is by Andrew Weissmann, a member of the team that was supposed to do the Mueller Report.  Supposed to.  It seems to tell more about why nothing could be done if you were very aware that the subject of the investigation could fire the investigators.

The consensus was that sometimes it is your job to step on the proverbial landmine.

I guess it doesn't really matter. When they caught Trump in further wrong-doing the Republicans just exonerated him. They would have done that even if the Mueller Report had been fully told. So, it's up to the voters to make the decision to fire him, unless Trump usurps power by getting "rid of the ballots."
I don't often bother with the anti Trump adds, but Sully did one well, covered lots of bases.