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I'm still concerned about the Trump lame duck period.  There seem to be three phases possible.

The first would involve contending the election.  This would involve the courts and the state legislatures.  It would expose both to a rabid Trump loyalty which would taint them going on.  I am beginning to suspect that this phase will not occur, or will fall flat.  The Republican remnants will not want to further expose any loyalty to Trump.

The second phase would be retribution.  Trump will still be president, and could do what he could to hurt his enemies, which would amount to hurting America.  You would think a president wouldn't walk this path, but if he walks it hard enough holding the world's fastest impeachment might be prudent.  Even a discredited Republican senator might agree if he didn't want to be tainted by the deliberate hostility to America.

The third phase would be pardons for everyone, perhaps followed by running to another country that wouldn't extradite.  This phase wouldn't have to last long.  This seems the most likely phase to occur.  Can a president be declared a flight risk by a state DA?

After the inauguration?  How much will the old Trump loyalist and bad cops resist?  How much else will have to be undone?  A busy time indeed.  It might make the folks involved in FDR's first 100 days seem lazy in comparison.  That remains a little far out...
(10-30-2020, 11:13 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Which states will win the blue ribbon as the bluest?
Oct.31, 12 AM

DC Biden +82.7
MA Biden +36.8
VT Biden +36.2
HI Biden +32.7...

I still remember the old Watergate era bumper sticker. "Don't blame me. I'm from Massachusetts." DC and MA were the only folks that voted against Nixon. Good to see that some things remain consistent.

Roundheads, hurrah!
Polling averages Oct.31, 7:30 PM EDT, edited Nov.1, 9 AM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
90+ million already voted.

National Biden +8.6

Alaska Trump +7.5
Arizona Biden +3.4
Florida Biden +1.8
Georgia Biden +1.6
Indiana Trump +9.3
Iowa Trump +1.7
Kansas Trump +10
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.6
Michigan Biden +8.4
Minnesota Biden +8.9
Missouri Trump +6.7
Montana Trump +5.0
Nevada Biden +5.1
New Hampshire Biden +11
North Carolina Biden +2.3
Ohio Trump +0.2
Pennsylvania Biden +4.9
South Carolina Trump +7.8
Texas Trump +1.1
Wisconsin Biden +8.6

0 to +3 tilting, +3-9 leaning, +9-15 likely, +15+ solid. blue=Democratic, red=Republican
map from 270to win, using fivethirtyeight poll averages

[Image: x07yv]
Time is running out.

President Trump has made some short speeches in which he claims that only one thing (corruption) can keep him from winning -- and that it has doomed his chance of victory. He accused Democrats of winning by flooding the airwaves in contested states due to their money and that Democrats are in collusion with tech giants. Trump's speeches have gone from combative to morose, suggesting that he knows what is happening. It ain't his victory.
"Law and order" !! ha ha

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp...aeo4i5lDSs

Joe Biden’s presidential campaign canceled a Friday event in Austin, Texas, after harassment from a pro-Trump contingent.

Texas has emerged as a battleground state in Tuesday’s presidential election, with polls showing the typically Republican stronghold now only marginally favoring President Donald Trump. The Biden campaign scheduled a Friday event in the state, in a bid to drum up last-minute support.


But when the Biden campaign bus drove to Austin, it was greeted by a blockade of pro-Trump demonstrators, leading to what one Texas House representative described as an escalation “well beyond safe limits.”

The cancelation comes amid national anxiety about voter intimidation, a tactic the Trump campaign has implicitly endorsed.

Historian Dr. Eric Cervini was driving to help with the Biden campaign stop when he filmed a line of pickup trucks along the highway, many of them flying Trump flags. The drivers were “waiting to ambush the Biden/Harris campaign bus as it traveled from San Antonio to Austin,” Cervini tweeted.

“These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road,” he alleged. “They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car.”....
Another example of the Republicans trying to change the voting rules after the votes are cast.  CNN reports Federal judge sets hearing Monday on challenge to ballots from drive-thru voting in Texas' largest county.
(10-31-2020, 03:52 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]"Law and order" !! ha ha

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp...aeo4i5lDSs

Joe Biden’s presidential campaign canceled a Friday event in Austin, Texas, after harassment from a pro-Trump contingent.

Texas has emerged as a battleground state in Tuesday’s presidential election, with polls showing the typically Republican stronghold now only marginally favoring President Donald Trump. The Biden campaign scheduled a Friday event in the state, in a bid to drum up last-minute support.


But when the Biden campaign bus drove to Austin, it was greeted by a blockade of pro-Trump demonstrators, leading to what one Texas House representative described as an escalation “well beyond safe limits.”

The cancelation comes amid national anxiety about voter intimidation, a tactic the Trump campaign has implicitly endorsed.

Historian Dr. Eric Cervini was driving to help with the Biden campaign stop when he filmed a line of pickup trucks along the highway, many of them flying Trump flags. The drivers were “waiting to ambush the Biden/Harris campaign bus as it traveled from San Antonio to Austin,” Cervini tweeted.

“These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road,” he alleged. “They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car.”....

Don't Biden and Harris have Secret Service protection?

Oh. Trump calls the shots on that.

...I don't know whether there is any really-high-level encouragement of such behavior, but we can never know -- can we?
Brand new CNN numbers:

Arizona: Biden 50, Trump 46
Michigan: Biden 53, Trump 41
NC: Biden 51, Trump 45
Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 44
5:02 PM · Oct 31, 2020

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.ph...c=409025.0

Trump job approval (LV)
Wisconsin: 45/53 (-8)
Michigan: 42/56 (-14)
Arizona: 47/51 (-4)
North Carolina: 45/52 (-7)
(10-31-2020, 03:52 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]"Law and order" !! ha ha

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp...aeo4i5lDSs

Joe Biden’s presidential campaign canceled a Friday event in Austin, Texas, after harassment from a pro-Trump contingent.

They think that sort of behavior is what will draw people to Trump? I'm kind of doubtful.
(10-31-2020, 06:29 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Brand new CNN numbers:

Arizona: Biden 50, Trump 46
Michigan: Biden 53, Trump 41
NC: Biden 51, Trump 45
Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 44
5:02 PM · Oct 31, 2020

It looks like the closer we get to the election, the more buyer's remorse is settling in.
(10-31-2020, 07:29 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(10-31-2020, 06:29 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Brand new CNN numbers:

Arizona: Biden 50, Trump 46
Michigan: Biden 53, Trump 41
NC: Biden 51, Trump 45
Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 44
5:02 PM · Oct 31, 2020

It looks like the closer we get to the election, the more buyer's remorse is settling in.

No Florida though. ABC says Trump leads by 2% in Florida.
270towin polling averages, Nov.1, 2 AM EDT
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
National: Biden +6.8

https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling
Alaska Trump +6
Arizona Biden +1.1
Florida Biden +3.2
Georgia Biden +2.4
Iowa Trump +0.6
Kansas Trump +8.7
Maine Biden +11.8
Maine CD2 Biden +0.7
Michigan Biden +7.4
Minnesota Biden +8.4
Missouri Trump +7
Montana Trump +5.4
Nevada Biden +6.4
New Hampshire Biden +11
North Carolina Biden +2.2
Ohio tie
Pennsylvania Biden +6
South Carolina Trump +7
Texas Trump +2.4
Wisconsin Biden +8.2

The map according to 270towin poll averages:

[Image: BXgwv]

Senate

Alabama Tuberville (Rep.) +12.5
Alaska Sullivan (Rep.) +4.3
Arizona Kelly (Dem.) +5.6
Colorado Hickenlooper (Dem.) +9.2
Georgia Ossoff (Dem.) +2.6
Iowa Greenfield (Dem.) +0.2
Kansas Marshall (Rep.) +2
Kentucky McConnell (Rep.) +9.5
Maine Gideon (Dem.) +3.2
Montana Daines (Rep.) +0.8
North Carolina Cunningham (Dem.) +2.6
South Carolina Graham (Rep.) +2.4
Texas Cornyn (Rep.) +7.2


RealClearPolitics
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/
National Biden +7.8

Top Battlegrounds...10/31...49.1..45.7...Biden +3.4
Florida...............................48.3..47.1...Biden +1.2
Pennsylvania......................49.5..45.4...Biden +4.1
Michigan............................50.3..43.0...Biden +7.3
Wisconsin..........................50.5..44.8...Biden +5.7
North Carolina....................48.9..46.8...Biden +2.1
Arizona..............................47.3..47.2...Biden +0.1


fivethirtyeight poll averages Nov.1, 2 PM EDT, edit 5:30 PM
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

National Biden +8.6

Alaska Trump +7.5
Arizona Biden +3.1
Florida Biden +2.2
Georgia Biden +1.5
Indiana Trump +9.3
Iowa Trump +1.7
Kansas Trump +10
Maine CD-2 Biden +3.2
Michigan Biden +8.2
Minnesota Biden +9.1
Missouri Trump +6.8
Montana Trump +5.0
Nevada Biden +5.1
New Hampshire Biden +11
North Carolina Biden +2
Ohio Trump +0.3
Pennsylvania Biden +4.8
South Carolina Trump +7.8
Texas Trump +1.3
Wisconsin Biden +8.3
Michael Moore warns us again to stay on our toes.





What Trump must do to win: game and suppress PA, and then do whatever it takes to make 6 tossup states all roll his way: AZ, NC, FL, GA where's he's slightly behind, plus OH and TX where he's slightly favored. That's all he needs. If he can still win MI and WI too, that's beating the odds pretty well. He doesn't need them, or IA, if he gets these others.
Ugly incident in Texas. Well-organized Trump supporters blocked an off-ramp that the Biden caravan needed to get to a rally in Austin, Texas.

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/...11557?s=20

Joe Biden never got to the rally.

I'm not subscribed to Twitter, so it is difficult for me to give Twitter feeds.

......

Disrupting the opposition is an authoritarian trick, one uncharacteristic of American politics. We should have some idea of what a Second Act means for the Trump Administration.

No this is not 'supporters going overboard'. This is new to the USA, and there is obvious organization from well-placed people. All that surprises me is that it has not started earlier.

A fish stinks from the head.
fivethirtyeight poll averages Nov.2, 1:30 AM EST, edit about 5 PM EST, Nov.3 12 AM EST, final edit 1 AM Nov.3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/
Biden going down a bit, I hope it is not an election eve trend. We need a landslide for Biden and the Democrats in the Senate.

National Biden +8.4

Alaska Trump +7.7
Arizona Biden +2.6
Florida Biden +2.5
Georgia Biden +1.2
Indiana Trump +10.8
Iowa Trump +1.3
Maine CD-2 Biden +2.8
Michigan Biden +7.9
Minnesota Biden +9.2
Missouri Trump +8
Montana Trump +4.4
Nebraska CD2 Biden +3.8
Nevada Biden +5.3
New Hampshire Biden +11.1
North Carolina Biden +1.8
Ohio Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania Biden +4.7
South Carolina Trump +7.1
Texas Trump +1.1
Utah Trump +9.8
Wisconsin Biden +8.4

[Image: Q0r2J]

0 to +3 tilting, +3-9 leaning, +9-15 likely, +15+ solid. blue=Democratic, red=Republican
map from 270towin, using fivethirtyeight poll averages


270towin polling averages, Nov.1, 2 AM EST
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
National: Biden +7.3

https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling
Alaska Trump +6
Arizona Biden +2.4
Florida Biden +2
Georgia Biden +2
Iowa Trump +1.4
Kansas Trump +8.7
Maine CD2 Biden +1.2
Michigan Biden +7.5
Minnesota Biden +8.4
Missouri Trump +7
Montana Trump +5.4
Nevada Biden +5
New Hampshire Biden +11
North Carolina Biden +0.8
Ohio Trump +0.2
Pennsylvania Biden +4.4
South Carolina Trump +7
Texas Trump +1.4
Wisconsin Biden +8
With the bug precautions, I haven't gotten around much lately.  Still, the family that has been doing my shopping and dropping off my mail has been reporting folks going a little crazy.  Locals have been thinking it is fun to drop a lit match or other fire source into a mailbox.  They figure if Trump can mess with the mail, why shouldn't they.  They are also ignoring the one way signs in grocery stores, running around unmasked, holding gatherings as they feel like.  This exaggerates incidents like in Texas where the Biden caravan was harassed by local red fanatics, and the attempt to kidnap the governor of Michigan.

This sort of thing is related to the spirals of rhetoric and violence.  The red culture is coming to have a strong element of negligent homaside, harassment and violence.  It should be noted.

I have been predicting the old values will go away.  They certainly take a big hit in a given crisis.  Does anyone want this to become a regular feature of the culture?  If the bulk of the country is voting to fight the bug, extend decency and reduce systematic racism, must something be done with the red renegades and just plain vandals?
(11-02-2020, 05:32 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]With the bug precautions, I haven't gotten around much lately.  Still, the family that has been doing my shopping and dropping off my mail has been reporting folks going a little crazy.  Locals have been thinking it is fun to drop a lit match or other fire source into a mailbox.  The figure if Trump can mess with the mail, why shouldn't they.  They are also ignoring the one way signs in grocery stores, running around unmasked, holding gatherings as they feel like.  This exaggerates incidents like in Texas where the Biden caravan was harassed by local red fanatics, and the attempt to kidnap the governor of Michigan.

This sort of thing is related to the spirals of rhetoric and violence.  The red culture is coming to have a strong element of negligent homaside, harassment and violence.  It should be noted.

I have been predicting the old values will go away.  They certainly take a big hit in a given crisis.  Does anyone want this to become a regular feature of the culture?  If the bulk of the country is voting to fight the bug, extend decency and reduce systematic racism, must something be done with the red renegades and just plain vandals?

How much is done to them will depend on what they do; how violent they get, whether they stage a violent rebellion, etc. I guess Classic Xer might have a handle on what the red renegades intend to do. Of course the vandals whether blue or red need to be curtailed; they provide Trump with his best campaign slogans. It is in the interest of the blue side to bring about genuine law and order with justice. We will then be the opposite of what Trump and his followers like Classic Xer will still say we are.
Obviously we cannot put life on hold; human nature is what it is, and, to put it tamely, natural selection does not favor hermits, the insane, and especially suicides. At my first opportunity I went to a bookstore, the one sort of retailer that I most missed. I discovered that dining out -- meaning inside the restaurant -- is one thing that I can do without. Wearing a mask means the freedom to do much of what I like doing. For someone who has a 5 o'clock shadow at 3 o'clock, a mask can hide that. If I must wear a mask into 2022 I will. I'm 64, and I am far from too old and have too many things right with me (rationality, imagination, powerful legs, keen senses,  "Mormon lungs" and a "Mormon liver")  to not extract some joy in life, and I am not going to contract a virus whose most likely end is being incarcerated in a ventilator with a higher chance of death than a death row inmate has of dying by the barbarous ceremony of an execution -- with no appellate process and no possible reprieve as a choice of some elected pol who accepts some sob story from me or from some sympathetic character.

Crass as it is to say this, after only the usual medical advice (wash your hands often, wear a mask, stay away from likely spreader events), your best measure of hope is to vote for Joe Biden for President and for pols who have already taken COVID-19 seriously enough -- so that we can stop the medical carnage. We are over 234 thousand deaths, roughly four times the military and POW casualties of the Vietnam War. People did go into the streets to protest the deaths of American soldiers in a costly stalemate in a war that few Americans understood. 

Hey, hey Donald Trump -- how many bodies will we need to dump?

We are at war with an insidious, amoral virus against which we need have any qualms about extermination. We had ethical obligations to treat Germans, Italians, and Japanese in the last Crisis war humanely because people do not lose their Humanity because their political leaders have become demons. (Not only is it moral, it is also good policy of ensuring that people who feel the sting of defeat might as well be left with no cause for fighting back, which may explain why America and Britain won the last battles and faced no resistance movements -- and the gangster leaders of Germany, Italy, and Japan could never win the peace. Let's put it this way: which Axis power of WWII has waged aggressive war in the last 75 years?

SARS-2 deserves extermination. It cannot sign a truce. It cannot stop killing, and it will likely shorten lives of multitudes who have survived it. The Fool in the White is still appeasing a merciless enemy that has invaded and is killingt in mass. 

Technically the name of the virus is SARS-2... and it has no human characteristics. 

Hey, hey Donald Trump -- how many bodies will we need to dump?
(11-02-2020, 06:07 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-02-2020, 05:32 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]With the bug precautions, I haven't gotten around much lately.  Still, the family that has been doing my shopping and dropping off my mail has been reporting folks going a little crazy.  Locals have been thinking it is fun to drop a lit match or other fire source into a mailbox.  The figure if Trump can mess with the mail, why shouldn't they.  They are also ignoring the one way signs in grocery stores, running around unmasked, holding gatherings as they feel like.  This exaggerates incidents like in Texas where the Biden caravan was harassed by local red fanatics, and the attempt to kidnap the governor of Michigan.

This sort of thing is related to the spirals of rhetoric and violence.  The red culture is coming to have a strong element of negligent homicide, harassment and violence.  It should be noted.

I have been predicting the old values will go away.  They certainly take a big hit in a given crisis.  Does anyone want this to become a regular feature of the culture?  If the bulk of the country is voting to fight the bug, extend decency and reduce systematic racism, must something be done with the red renegades and just plain vandals?

How much is done to them will depend on what they do; how violent they get, whether they stage a violent rebellion, etc. I guess Classic Xer might have a handle on what the red renegades intend to do. Of course the vandals whether blue or red need to be curtailed; they provide Trump with his best campaign slogans. It is in the interest of the blue side to bring about genuine law and order with justice. We will then be the opposite of what Trump and his followers like Classic Xer will still say we are.

Assuming that Trump loses, it is up to us who have hated Trump to act compassionately toward people who supported him. One Trump ad has asserted that a Biden victory will unleash the Radical Left... just ask yourself whether we had a loud, destructive Radical Left acting up when Barack Obama was President. Political radicalism, Right or Left, arises in times of mass distress such as economic meltdowns, severe inflation, epidemics, dislocations from natural disasters, and military debacles. People happy with their lots in life like their politics placid and oriented to service. 

This is a Crisis Era, and the majority of Americans have shown themselves ready to make sacrifices to win a Crisis-era war. Yes, this is a war, a costly stalemate at this stage, and...  I really say no more about how I see his leadership in COVID-19. If we instead had a Dust Bowl scenario (a threat from AGW), Trump would bungle it into a famine. (It is worth remembering that the Dust Bowl, one of the greatest natural disasters ever in agricultural and economic disruption got a highly-rational response from the competent political figures of the time. The dust storms killed people from suffocation from the storms themselves and caused fatal vehicle crashes... but no American died of starvation. People got the needs for relocation and new lives.   

...Two of Lichtman's  keys to Presidential elections are catastrophic failures for the President this time:

8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term of the incumbent President
9. The incumbent administration is free of major scandal.

Social unrest demonstrates incompetence at best and evil at worst. Corruption is a choice, and always inexcusable. Contrast Trump to Obama, and Obama looks like a saint by contrast. Obama may not be the perfect Crisis-era President, someone better at mitigating faults in American society than at repealing them, and someone better at stifling trouble than at solving its core causes. But he is exactly what one wants in a 1T. I cannot say what time Donald Trump fits. 

It is at least two days early for writing even a preliminary post-mortem on the Trump Administration, so I will save that for an appropriate time.
270towin polling averages, Nov.3, 2 AM EST
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
National: Biden +8

https://www.270towin.com/content/2020-pr...te-polling
Alaska Trump +5.6
Arizona Biden +2.2
Florida Biden +3.1
Georgia Biden +0.2
Iowa Trump +1.6
Kansas Trump +8.7
Maine CD2 Biden +1.2
Michigan Biden +5.5
Minnesota Biden +9.8
Missouri Trump +7.6
Montana Trump +5.4
Nevada Biden +5
New Hampshire Biden +11
North Carolina Biden +0.3
Ohio Trump +0.9
Pennsylvania Biden +3.7
South Carolina Trump +7
Texas Trump +1.3
Wisconsin Biden +9.2

95 million have voted.