Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(02-08-2018, 10:49 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-08-2018, 02:40 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-07-2018, 09:46 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-07-2018, 04:58 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Now Trump is really showing us who he is. He wants a military parade. He wants to make like some fascist or commie dictator, to outshine Kim Jung Un.

To: Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser

The Washington Post just announced that Trump plans a massive demonstration of military power in Washington, D.C. This parade will not do anything to keep our country safe, and it will not honor the men and women in uniform. Its entire purpose is to let Donald Trump play dictator for a day, further eroding democracy, and pushing our country even closer to authoritarianism.

This announcement must not be treated as normal. I urge you to use your position as mayor of our nation's capital to prevent President Trump from holding his dangerous war parade in your city.
https://petitions.moveon.org/sign/tell-d...ce=mo&t=13

Trump may have obvious personal flaws, but this is the best thing in years if not decades for American national security. The parade is not for its practical imperatives but is important that it sends a message to our enemies: That America is not to be messed with.

Dunno about that man.  The deep state is an overbloated expensive mess. How about this? Could it be that the deep state is it's own worst enemy ?

Talk about not fit for purpose.

Fixed the link

This particular phenomenon is not about the deep state. Even the Pentagon is not too thrilled with Trump's new military reality show. It's the shallow state, namely Mr. Trump, that is the problem here. Most of the deep state is just government employees and officials doing the jobs they are needed to do, and are good at doing.

Brower's post is right on point.

(02-08-2018, 05:26 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-08-2018, 10:49 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-08-2018, 02:40 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]<snip>

Dunno about that man.  The deep state is an overbloated expensive mess. How about this? Could it be that the deep state is it's own worst enemy ?

Talk about not fit for purpose.

Fixed the link

This particular phenomenon is not about the deep state. Even the Pentagon is not too thrilled with Trump's new military reality show. It's the shallow state, namely Mr. Trump, that is the problem here. Most of the deep state is just government employees and officials doing the jobs they are needed to do, and are good at doing.

Brower's post is right on point.

I thought Der Trumpenfurfur's shit show was obvious.  I guess not...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQsop7XWsAAmdnh.jpg

But, of course it's the deepstate man.  Like every other banana republic , the USA is home to lots of graft and corruption.
The cherry on top is Der Trumpenfurfur's militaristic impulses.

Besides, it's not a problem of people doing their jobs or not. It's problem of complexity , duplication, mission creep, etc.
IOW, it's a structural issue.

Interesting, if unscientific, poll of readers of the Military Times:

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-...no-parade/

89% think it a bad idea.

Quote:The former U.S. Navy SEAL who says he fired the shots that killed Osama bin Laden ripped President Trump's proposal for a military parade in the nation's capital.

"A military parade is third world bullshit," Robert J. O'Neill tweeted on Thursday.

"We prepare. We deter. We fight. Stop this conversation."

The comments come after the White House said President Trump has asked the Pentagon to explore holding "a celebration" for Americans to show their appreciation for the armed forces. The military says it has begun moving forward with the request.

"President Trump is incredibly supportive of America's great service members who risk their lives every day to keep our country safe. He has asked the Department of Defense to explore a celebration at which all Americans can show their appreciation," White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement earlier this week.

Trump repeatedly has expressed interest in holding a display of America's military might and reportedly upped his calls for a parade after witnessing the Bastille Day celebrations on a trip to France last summer.

The Washington Post reported earlier this week that at a recent meeting between Trump and top military officials the president's wishes were "suddenly heard as a presidential directive."

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrati...-third?amp

Obama didn't call for a military parade as a celebration of the demise of Osama bin Laden.

(02-07-2018, 09:46 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-07-2018, 04:58 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Now Trump is really showing us who he is. He wants a military parade. He wants to make like some fascist or commie dictator, to outshine Kim Jung Un.

To: Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser

The Washington Post just announced that Trump plans a massive demonstration of military power in Washington, D.C. This parade will not do anything to keep our country safe, and it will not honor the men and women in uniform. Its entire purpose is to let Donald Trump play dictator for a day, further eroding democracy, and pushing our country even closer to authoritarianism.

This announcement must not be treated as normal. I urge you to use your position as mayor of our nation's capital to prevent President Trump from holding his dangerous war parade in your city.
https://petitions.moveon.org/sign/tell-d...ce=mo&t=13

Trump may have obvious personal flaws, but this is the best thing in years if not decades for American national security. The parade is not for its practical imperatives but is important that it sends a message to our enemies: That America is not to be messed with.

The Armed Forces of the United States demonstrate their power through their victories, and not in 'dog-and-pony' shows in Washington DC. The enemies of the United States do not face our troops in Washington, DC.

The day chosen, the 100th anniversary of the end of the second-worst war in inhuman history, a war whose causes few historians can figure out today, is grossly insensitive. Yes we can honor our veterans, and I encourage people to honor the dead of World War I and other wars. But just as important -- let us not blunder our way into wars whose causes we do not understand and whose consequences are weakened institutions and peoples full of anger.

Quote:Trump may have personal flaws?

That's about as much an understatement as saying that a lava flow is an unpleasant thing to encounter.

(02-08-2018, 06:21 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-08-2018, 05:26 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-08-2018, 10:49 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-08-2018, 02:40 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]<snip>

Dunno about that man.  The deep state is an overbloated expensive mess. How about this? Could it be that the deep state is it's own worst enemy ?

Talk about not fit for purpose.

Fixed the link

This particular phenomenon is not about the deep state. Even the Pentagon is not too thrilled with Trump's new military reality show. It's the shallow state, namely Mr. Trump, that is the problem here. Most of the deep state is just government employees and officials doing the jobs they are needed to do, and are good at doing.

Brower's post is right on point.

I thought Der Trumpenfurfur's shit show was obvious.  I guess not...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQsop7XWsAAmdnh.jpg

But, of course it's the deepstate man.  Like every other banana republic , the USA is home to lots of graft and corruption.
The cherry on top is Der Trumpenfurfur's militaristic impulses.

Besides, it's not a problem of people doing their jobs or not. It's problem of complexity , duplication, mission creep, etc.
IOW, it's a structural issue.

Deep state USA Graft and corruption, duplication, mission creep, complexity: do you have examples that would expand on your point?

We know the big things. Money rules politics, and Republicans protect this system. You know how the Citizens United decision went, and whose appointees voted for what there. The media is overly commercialized and not giving people any info.

I think there's always complexity in large systems. From my observation, the problem lies more in how people are voting. As George Carlin put it, average folks keep voting for people who don't give a fuck about them at all. People vote their prejudices, values and brainwashing. They keep settling for propaganda that trickle-down, hate-welfare economics actually works, when it doesn't. We have the government that we deserve. People have assumed that government and politics are bad, so why pay any attention? No, people need to pay attention.

(02-09-2018, 02:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Deep state USA Graft and corruption, duplication, mission creep, complexity: do you have examples that would expand on your point?

We know the big things. Money rules politics, and Republicans protect this system. You know how the Citizens United decision went, and whose appointees voted for what there. The media is overly commercialized and not giving people any info.

I think there's always complexity in large systems. From my observation, the problem lies more in how people are voting. As George Carlin put it, average folks keep voting for people who don't give a fuck about them at all. People vote their prejudices, values and brainwashing. They keep settling for propaganda that trickle-down, hate-welfare economics actually works, when it doesn't. We have the government that we deserve. People have assumed that government and politics are bad, so why pay any attention? No, people need to pay attention.

If it takes the Deep State (Armed Forces, law enforcement, and the CIA) to protect our democracy, then so be it. They may not be compatible with a Salvador Allende, but  they seemed to have no problem with Obama.

People are going to vote for people who flatter their cultural values until the politicians who exploit such identity politics (Donald Trump won with vulgarity) hurt them. He's done practically nothing for the common man except to give a pittance  of a tax cut for which there will be huge deficits and perhaps a debt crisis that will lead to the  privatization of the public sector, monopolization of the private sector, and the destruction of any semblance of a safety net. Donald Trump stands for people with about the same level of morality as slave-owning planters who had the audacity to present slavery as a boon for slaves before the Civil War.

People pay attention to what hurts them. The Crisis is over when Southern whites vote for liberal Democrats as they did for Carter in 1976 and Northerners vote for liberal Democrats as they did for Obama. That is a landslide, and that can make all the gerrymandering  intended to distort representation in Congress moot. The homogenization of political life is a hallmark of the resolution of a Crisis Era.

(02-09-2018, 04:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]If it takes the Deep State (Armed Forces, law enforcement, and the CIA) to protect our democracy, then so be it. They may not be compatible with a Salvador Allende, but  they seemed to have no problem with Obama.

Thank you for being honest enough to say how you really feel. That belief would apply to much of the "progressive" left.
For decades you probably condemned the abuses of the FBI, CIA, Patriot Act, 1970's CIA, etc.
Now you are just fine with the Deep State being a branch of government above that of the President and Congress.

(02-09-2018, 08:50 PM)bobc Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-09-2018, 04:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]If it takes the Deep State (Armed Forces, law enforcement, and the CIA) to protect our democracy, then so be it. They may not be compatible with a Salvador Allende, but  they seemed to have no problem with Obama.

Thank you for being honest enough to say how you really feel. That belief would apply to much of the "progressive" left.
For decades you probably condemned the abuses of the FBI, CIA, Patriot Act, 1970's CIA, etc.
Now you are just fine with the Deep State being a branch of government above that of the President and Congress.

I do not trust Donald Trump with my liberty. He would sell out the liberty of millions if such would enrich himself and his cronies.

The FBI did some bad things into the 1970s (including aiding the overthrow of Salvador Allende), but it eventually broke with Nixon once he tried to use it for partisan dirty work. Such would have made the FBI a secret police force directed by a political party, a very bad situation.The CIA has not been completely trustworthy because it is a spy agency, and spies are not the most morally-reliable people. The Patriot Act should have had sunset legislation attached... and when the Crisis is over it may be one of those 'emergency measures' that gets abolished.

I can see things getting worse. The President is beginning to act like a dictator or a despotic monarch. He has tried to get the FBI to do partisan dirty work for the Republican Party even if the GOP has had at most a razor-thin majority and the President got elected with less than a plurality. It is as if the Other Side is completely irrelevant, and the leadership of the GOP would be content if the Democrats became  powerless except to yield a little to get some personal gain  in return for selling out their constituencies.

I have plenty of conservative values. I consider law and order necessary for a civil society because lawlessness turns democracy into a sham. I consider tradition a viable alternative for destructive trends in the name of progress, and even a means of finding ways to deal with economic and technological change. I strongly oppose the merger of Big Government and Big Business... and indeed I question whether Big Government is itself a virtue. Legal precedent, established process, and diplomatic protocol exist to mitigate dangerous courses of action. I consider much of the lore of the past, including the great blossoming of intellectual inquiry of the ancient Greeks and the moral teachings of the Hebrew prophets relevant to modern life because such knowledge is best not re-learned the hard way.

(02-10-2018, 01:05 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]I have plenty of conservative values. I consider law and order necessary for a civil society because lawlessness turns democracy into a sham. I consider tradition a viable alternative for destructive trends in the name of progress, and even a means of finding ways to deal with economic and technological change. I strongly oppose the merger of Big Government and Big Business... and indeed I question whether Big Government is itself a virtue. Legal precedent, established process, and diplomatic protocol exist to mitigate dangerous courses of action. I consider much of the lore of the past, including the great blossoming of intellectual inquiry of the ancient Greeks and the moral teachings of the Hebrew prophets relevant to modern life because such knowledge is best not re-learned the hard way.

If you thought about things a little differently, you would see that Trump is our best hope towards restoring the proper role of government.

The very fact that the Deep State and the Press are so hysterically against him, while being just fine with Hillary, should indicate to you that it isn't moral uprightness that they are upholding. They are against him because he threatens their way of life. Their way of life is corrupt, with laws applied by whim, coming down like a ton of bricks on those they don't like, and completely absent for those in their group.

We need to sweep away the Deep State, and noone other than Trump is capable or desiring of doing that.

Just because the Deep State opposes someone that you (I think in error of your own actual views) also oppose, does not mean that you should want them to prevail.

You are also well aware that in the Fourth Turning, precedent and protocol get thrown away. Our choice is to make America Great Again, or to resemble something like Venezuela , which many on the left only a few years ago said we should emulate.

I understand you distrust Trump's motives, but I think you are mistaken about that.
The combination of Big Business and Big Government is something that Trump opposes. What he needs now are many more Republicans in Congress and the Senate, so as not to be beholden to whatever the 50th Senator demands, which might well be something he is against.

(11-14-2016, 12:00 AM)Galen Wrote: [ -> ]It is laughable because the KKK these days is about a dozen guys and half of them are FBI informants.  I just read an opinion piece by Peters and you're right about the comparison.

There are far more than a dozen, and less than half would be FBI informants, if only for budgetary reasons. They would be well infiltrated, though, at a guess.

(02-10-2018, 05:21 PM)bobc Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-10-2018, 01:05 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]I have plenty of conservative values. I consider law and order necessary for a civil society because lawlessness turns democracy into a sham. I consider tradition a viable alternative for destructive trends in the name of progress, and even a means of finding ways to deal with economic and technological change. I strongly oppose the merger of Big Government and Big Business... and indeed I question whether Big Government is itself a virtue. Legal precedent, established process, and diplomatic protocol exist to mitigate dangerous courses of action. I consider much of the lore of the past, including the great blossoming of intellectual inquiry of the ancient Greeks and the moral teachings of the Hebrew prophets relevant to modern life because such knowledge is best not re-learned the hard way.

If you thought about things a little differently, you would see that Trump is our best hope towards restoring the proper role of government.

Change assumptions and you change almost all the answers. The sun can rise and set very far to the north or south if  one  is at a high latitude. Thus saying that the sun rises  in the east and sets  in the west is  strictly true only at the vernal and autumnal equinoxes. The merger of Big Government and Big Business is the norm both under Marxism-Leninism (as the State takes over ownership and operation of private industry) and fascism (when the government gives political power to Big Business).

Quote:The very fact that the Deep State and the Press are so hysterically against him, while being just fine with Hillary, should indicate to you that it isn't moral uprightness that they are upholding. They are against him because he threatens their way of life. Their way of life is corrupt, with laws applied by whim, coming down like a ton of bricks on those they don't like, and completely absent for those in their group.

Non sequitur. This  is like saying that if blacks thoroughly hate the Klan, then there must be something right about the Klan. Truth does not rely upon its popularity  or unpopularity with certain groups.

The Deep State wants independence from partisan politics. It does not want the role of doing partisan dirty work against Democrats when the Republicans are in charge or against Republicans when Democrats are in charge. Law enforcement must be separate from partisan politics if we are to have the rule of law.

I am aware of FBI bias based  on the composition of the FBI. If you ever saw The Wolf of Wall Street, you would recognize that FBI agents loathe ostentatious displays of material indulgence, especially when such is by someone who has a less-than-honorable way of getting rich. FBI agents can live well, but not that well.  

Quote:We need to sweep away the Deep State, and noone other than Trump is capable or desiring of doing that.

No -- we need the Deep State (law enforcement and intelligence services) but need to keep them independent of partisan politics. I want the FBI harassing mobsters and criminal enterprises -- not the people who lost the last election, Without the CIA, Seal Team 6 might not have been able to whack Osama bin Laden.

Quote:Just because the Deep State opposes someone that you (I think in error of your own actual views) also oppose, does not mean that you should want them to prevail.

If such people are leading America down the path toward tyranny, then they need to be stopped.

Quote:You are also well aware that in the Fourth Turning, precedent and protocol get thrown away. Our choice is to make America Great Again, or to resemble something like Venezuela , which many on the left only a few years ago said we should emulate.

So you tell me when America was without qualification better than it is now. Maybe life may have been easier when real estate was cheaper and commutes were shorter. There might have been opportunities for making a killing with an invention or process when such things did not exist. But we have those inventions and processes. We need not re0invent the wheel -- or for that matter, the telephone. or the transistor.

I do not miss Jim Crow laws. I do not miss polio. I do not miss Blood Alley two-lane blacktops with their dangerous curves, narrow bridges, hidden driveways, cross traffic, and copious opportunities for head-on accidents.

On the other hand I am not filthy rich, so maybe I don't appreciate the sort of disparity normal as late as the 1920s.  

Quote:I understand you distrust Trump's motives, but I think you are mistaken about that.
The combination of Big Business and Big Government is something that Trump opposes. What he needs now are many more Republicans in Congress and the Senate, so as not to be beholden to whatever the 50th Senator demands, which might well be something he is against.

Donald Trump is drowning in connections to organized crime.

(02-10-2018, 05:21 PM)bobc Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-10-2018, 01:05 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]I have plenty of conservative values. I consider law and order necessary for a civil society because lawlessness turns democracy into a sham. I consider tradition a viable alternative for destructive trends in the name of progress, and even a means of finding ways to deal with economic and technological change. I strongly oppose the merger of Big Government and Big Business... and indeed I question whether Big Government is itself a virtue. Legal precedent, established process, and diplomatic protocol exist to mitigate dangerous courses of action. I consider much of the lore of the past, including the great blossoming of intellectual inquiry of the ancient Greeks and the moral teachings of the Hebrew prophets relevant to modern life because such knowledge is best not re-learned the hard way.

If you thought about things a little differently, you would see that Trump is our best hope towards restoring the proper role of government.

The very fact that the Deep State and the Press are so hysterically against him, while being just fine with Hillary, should indicate to you that it isn't moral uprightness that they are upholding. They are against him because he threatens their way of life. Their way of life is corrupt, with laws applied by whim, coming down like a ton of bricks on those they don't like, and completely absent for those in their group.

We need to sweep away the Deep State, and noone other than Trump is capable or desiring of doing that.

With the likely exception of some military and intelligence departments, the Deep State is just honorable folks going about the business of serving the people. It performs necessary and desirable functions, and keeps the real Deep State, namely corporate and big business America, from ruling over our lives to our detriment of everyone but themselves.

Quote:Just because the Deep State opposes someone that you (I think in error of your own actual views) also oppose, does not mean that you should want them to prevail.

You are also well aware that in the Fourth Turning, precedent and protocol get thrown away. Our choice is to make America Great Again, or to resemble something like Venezuela , which many on the left only a few years ago said we should emulate.

I doubt many people on the Left in America thought we should emulate Venezuela. Trump and his followers are doing just that, by submitting to and depending on a strong man type of rule.

Quote:I understand you distrust Trump's motives, but I think you are mistaken about that.
The combination of Big Business and Big Government is something that Trump opposes. What he needs now are many more Republicans in Congress and the Senate, so as not to be beholden to whatever the 50th Senator demands, which might well be something he is against.

Trump supports his class of rich folks, and ONLY his class of rich folks. His sole motive is to enrich himself and his friends, and that's why he appoints alligators to his swamp, and opposes every regulation that keeps the people healthy and free. Trump is interested in one thing: corruption, that supports himself, his family and his rich friends. Everything he does supports this fact. What the people need now is many more Democrats in congress, so that his evil actions can be blocked, and the people can eventually re-enter the path of progress.

(02-10-2018, 06:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-10-2018, 05:21 PM)bobc Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-10-2018, 01:05 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]I have plenty of conservative values. I consider law and order necessary for a civil society because lawlessness turns democracy into a sham. I consider tradition a viable alternative for destructive trends in the name of progress, and even a means of finding ways to deal with economic and technological change. I strongly oppose the merger of Big Government and Big Business... and indeed I question whether Big Government is itself a virtue. Legal precedent, established process, and diplomatic protocol exist to mitigate dangerous courses of action. I consider much of the lore of the past, including the great blossoming of intellectual inquiry of the ancient Greeks and the moral teachings of the Hebrew prophets relevant to modern life because such knowledge is best not re-learned the hard way.

If you thought about things a little differently, you would see that Trump is our best hope towards restoring the proper role of government.

The very fact that the Deep State and the Press are so hysterically against him, while being just fine with Hillary, should indicate to you that it isn't moral uprightness that they are upholding. They are against him because he threatens their way of life. Their way of life is corrupt, with laws applied by whim, coming down like a ton of bricks on those they don't like, and completely absent for those in their group.

We need to sweep away the Deep State, and noone other than Trump is capable or desiring of doing that.

With the likely exception of some military and intelligence departments, the Deep State is just honorable folks going about the business of serving the people. It performs necessary and desirable functions, and keeps the real Deep State, namely corporate and big business America, from ruling over our lives to our detriment of everyone but themselves.

The point. The criminals are getting increasingly sophisticated because they are often better educated. There was a time when law enforcement was astonished at the low levels of formal schooling and measurable intelligence associated with the Mafia. The characters in Goodfellas aren't the sorts of people with which one could hold an discussion  of the Italian Renaissance or the music of Vivaldi or Puccini even if such were 'their culture'. That's more like Moonstruck, characters out of which I might find interesting partners in a discussion of interesting things.

The Russian Mafia is really smart, and it knows how to do business, science, and mathematics. It's no less vicious than the old (and dying) Sicilian Mafia. The FBI has to keep up with the intellectual capacities of the Russian Mafia. That's why it is full of attorneys and accountants and has one of the best scientific labs in the world.

There were crass jokes about CIA standing for "Cocaine Import Agency"... but we rarely make those anymore. It has other concerns, like terrorism.

With the enforcement agencies of all times, the question Qui custodiet custodies?  of Roman times still applies. Who watches the watchmen? Internal affairs to see who is going corrupt. But every company watches its accountants closely because the accountants know best how to embezzle.

Quote:

Quote:Just because the Deep State opposes someone that you (I think in error of your own actual views) also oppose, does not mean that you should want them to prevail.

You are also well aware that in the Fourth Turning, precedent and protocol get thrown away. Our choice is to make America Great Again, or to resemble something like Venezuela , which many on the left only a few years ago said we should emulate.

I doubt many people on the Left in American thought we should emulate Venezuela. Trump and his followers are doing just that, by submitting and depending on a strong man type of rule.

Yup!

Quote:

Quote:I understand you distrust Trump's motives, but I think you are mistaken about that.
The combination of Big Business and Big Government is something that Trump opposes. What he needs now are many more Republicans in Congress and the Senate, so as not to be beholden to whatever the 50th Senator demands, which might well be something he is against.

Trump supports his class of rich folks, and ONLY his class of rich folks. His sole motive is to enrich himself and his friends, and that's why he appoints alligators to his swamp, and opposes every regulation that keeps the people healthy and free. Trump is interested in one thing: corruption, that supports himself, his family and his rich friends. Everything he does supports this fact. What the people need now is many more Democrats in congress, so that his evil actions can be blocked, and the people can eventually re-enter the path of progress.

He has also been on intimate terms with organized crime; he has frequently violated environmental regulations and hired illegal aliens to do demolition work involving asbestos. About all that he has in common with his 'deplorable' supporters are his contempt for the educated middle class (as an elitist he would love to see them cut down), his intellectual hollowness, and his well-documented vulgarity. I have seen evidence in polling that he is losing much of his 'deplorable' support while gaining no support from the educated middle class.

Losing support is not a good way to effect permanent change in the political system.

In fact, bobc -- this is how America sees President Trump. I am looking more at disapproval than approval. Disapproval implies that pe3eople are giving up on him.


Cook PVI ratings:

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more







DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

...Cook PVI estimates how states would vote i n a binary 50-50 election, a natiionwide tie, based upon how states voted for the Presidency in 2012 and 2016  as a predictor of 2020. This i s the best baseline that I can think of. It may not be perfect, but it is objective.

.......................

Here  is the Gallup data for 2017. Figuring that this is an average from early February to late December, I will have to assume an average date of July 15 or so for the polling data. This is now rather old data, and in some cases obsolete. For example, I see Trump support cratering in the Mountain and Deep South. the Mountain South and Deep South are going back to a populist phase (the South has typically oscillated between the  two) or whether The Donald is beginning to appear as a bad match for either part of the South.  This data (or later polling) is not  intended to show anything other than how support appears at some time or at an average of times. As a general rule, new polling supplants even better old  polling.

So here  is the Gallup polling with a number  of 100-DIS reflecting what I consider the ceiling for Donald Trump. This is lenient to the extent that I assume that he can pick up most undecided voters but recognizes that undoing disapproval at any stage requires miracles. By definition, miracles are unpredictable.

 Gallup data from all polls in 2017 (average assumed  in mid-July):



*Approval lower than disapproval in this state

for barely-legible numbers for DC and some states -- CT 37 DC 11 DE 42 HI 40 MD 35 RI 38

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

This  is good data, but the average age  of the data is from late July, so it is more than six months  old now.

.............................................

This is polling from October or later, and I will be adding a poll of Florida from October because it is newer than the Gallup polling data.

 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:




Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

Note -- if Trump is underwater (more disapproval than approval) in the polling, then the results come out in pink.  

Note: this  includes many different  polls from different sources.

.............................................

Variation from PVI (polls from October 2017 and later):



At this  point it is easy to note that the 2020 election so far projects to not be a 50-50 split of the vote. To be sure, the President's biggest losses of support seem to be coming  in states in which he had a huge cushion in 2016... but current polling shows the President losing three  of his five closest wins and eight of his ten closest wins of 2016. The others? I do not have recent polls of Arizona, Maine, Nevada, or Pennsylvania

Robert Mueller has indicted thirteen Russians and three Russian corporations for hacking the 2016 election.

Trolls, largely.

[url= https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/comme...aigns]From one of the most politically-conservative big-city newspapers in America[/url]

A hint: when Reagan was President, nobody questioned the loyalty of conservatives to the USA.

Follow the money.

As the late Patsy Cline sang, "I'm falling... to pieces".

Quote:A former top aide to Donald Trump's presidential campaign will plead guilty to fraud-related charges within days — and has made clear to prosecutors that he would testify against Paul Manafort, the lawyer-lobbyist who once managed the campaign.

The change of heart by Trump's former deputy campaign manager Richard Gates, who had pleaded not guilty after being indicted in October on charges similar to Manafort's, was described in interviews by people familiar with the case.

"Rick Gates is going to change his plea to guilty,'' said a person with direct knowledge of the new developments, adding that the revised plea will be presented in federal court in Washington "within the next few days.''

That individual and others who discussed the matter spoke on condition of anonymity, citing a judge's gag order restricting comments about the case to the news media or public.

Read more here at the Los Angeles Times.

There must be more to this than Paul Man-o-fraud.

This may not all be new. Helping a kleptocratic dictator loot his country usually offers rich rewards.

Quote:For a decade prior and on through Trump’s populist crusade, Paul Manafort and Rick Gates used offshore accounts, hidden income, falsified documents and laundered cash to maintain Manafort’s lush life of multiple homes, fine art, exquisite clothes and exotic travel, the government says.

In a richly detailed expanded indictment filed Thursday, special counsel Robert S. Mueller III parted the curtain shielding how two longtime Washington influence merchants worked the system. The government contends that Manafort, who was Trump’s campaign chairman for five months before being fired, used people all around him, from his buddy Gates to banks, clients and the IRS, to build a life of conspicuous consumption.

Donald Trump should have seen through this. Lavish spending by someone who hasn't inherited or made a personal fortune (typically through shrewd investments in meeting human needs or in other forms of compelling innovation) indicates a ho0llow fool. Something that I have seen of some highly-successful entrepreneurs is that they are too busy for conspicuous consumption until they are slowing down and are advised to get a recharge.

Think of John Davison Rockefeller II, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford, and Howard Hughes. They did some good while they were alive, and more after they died through foundations.

I have a forum on dictatorial leaders and their lavish indulgence; Paul Man-o-Fraud gave much aid to one of those dictatorial leaders in looting a potentially-rich country. Ukraine has the resources and workforce to be comparable to France. It got Yanukovych instead.

Quote:Prosecutors say that Manafort made monthly payments to the home improvement company, many of them in six-figure amounts, drawn from accounts that he and Gates controlled in Cyprus and the Grenadines, companies with names such as Global Highway Limited and Lucicle Consultants.
Another $655,000 allegedly went to a Hamptons landscaper over a 2½ -year period. A second landscaper got $165,000 over the following two years.

The indictment describes how money poured into the coffers of the businesses that could turn a house into a state-of-the-art entertainment complex. It alleges that a lighting and home entertainment company in Florida got $1.3 million from five Manafort-controlled entities. Over two years, an antique-rug shop in Alexandria collected $934,000 from Manafort’s Cypriot accounts, prosecutors say.

Manafort spent $849,000 at one men’s clothing shop in New York City in 34 visits over six years — an average of $25,000 per shopping venture. Another clothing store, in Beverly Hills, collected $520,000 from Manafort on nine dates over five years, about $58,000 per visit.

Washington Post -- long and well worth the read. Much more here.

In the end, lavish living catches up with those who do it, perhaps not as blatantly as cocaine -- but it is similarly difficult as cocaine to give up. Like cocaine, it messes up judgment. I'd be perfectly happy with a tract house, mass-market furniture and appliances, bland cars as needed for commuting, off-the-rack men's suits, clothing from places like JC Penney and Kohl's, and comfortable shoes. I would probably insist upon a better-than-average sound and video system because I love great music and movies -- but we all have our vices, do we not? All that I wish that I could enjoy that the rich have and I don't is some foreign travel and some economic security. The latter is out of the question because the capitalist system recognizes fear as a more efficient motivation to suffer for the unrestrained greed of capitalists and corporate bureaucrats than  is any promise of bounty from the productivity of capitalism.

I see in Paul Manafort someone that anyone would wise would have seen as untrustworthy even if desperate. Anyone living beyond his means is essentially a gambler on credit.

Some wisdom for Donald Trump, Paul Manafort, and their circle:

Mark 8:36 King James Version (KJV)

36 For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?

No, I am not a very religious person. This said, I can in no way use the word "Christian" to describe Donald Trump.

This lady knows what's up. The right-wing use of the word "elites" refers to those who pursue learning and can handle ideas and information. Trump is the ultimate expression of how the elites call those who know how the elites are oppressing we the people, "elites"





"Obama wants everybody to go to college. What a snob!" says Santorum. ha ha!

I look at the most elitist ideologies of all time, and as a rule I see the promotion of superstition, ignorance, and orthodoxy. People unable or unwilling to think for themselves are the economic equivalents of serfs or even slaves. Such people delegate moral judgment to their supposed betters.

Donald Trump fits. As says the slave-master or the fascist, "Don't think -- just do what I tell you to do. Don't ask any questions except to clarify my orders or to hear or read what I just told you -- or to recall what you forgot". The peon never changes the world except to amass wealth for someone more important than himself, at least as he is told to do with the threat of even worse. For the peon, the horrific is the defense of the awful.

Beginning with Socrates, the wisest of us have typically been more embarrassed by the limits of their knowledge than by they are proud of what they already know. So you just learned how to integrate the cube of the sine -- if you are wise, you want to learn even more. Maybe if my first experience with Anton Bruckner is his Eighth Symphony and I find it delightful I might want to listen to more of his music.

The anti-intellectuals shown in the video by Francesca Fiorentini would have us proud of our ignorance -- so that we can toil without question, accept economic policies that cheat us, and -- worst -- make life empty, stale, and meaningless. Oh, curiosity killed the cat? Wrong -- curiosity made the cat a problem solver, even if its life revolves around killing and eating.

Ignorance denies opportunity and choice. It means that we feel obliged to accept raw deals out of fear that there are no good alternatives. A lack of choice is the antithesis of freedom, is it not?

Here is one of the ultimate ironies: the more that one knows, the less capable one is of snobbery. Yes, there are people who make a living by outsmarting people and taking advantage of them. They are called con artists. But the typical con artist is at most ordinary in knowledge. The con artist is the expert at telling people what they want to hear. "You are special. You are a shrewd dealer. I care about you and want the best for you. But this offer won't last." When I hear such a spiel, I want out. This is so whether someone tries to get me to respond to a 419 scheme or vote for a demagogue. I know that nobody is in business to lose money in dealing with me. I realize that as an economic participant I am as ordinary as anybody else. I might be shrewd in business dealings, but I expect much the same with anyone with whom I deal. If it is too good to be true, then it is neither good nor true.

Good education may enrich one's life, but it also makes one humbler.

Amid the opportunists, weirdos, trolls, and pawns who make up the cast of the Russian plot to interfere in American politics, Joseph Mifsud stands out.

The Maltese professor, who allegedly delivered word of Hillary Clinton’s stolen emails to Donald Trump's campaign, is an authentically mysterious figure, his true role and ties to Russian intelligence unclear.

And while others like former Trump campaign aides George Papadopoulos and Carter Page — and their friends and girlfriends — told their stories, Mifsud went to ground. His biography disappeared from one university where he taught and he quit his job at another university. His email and cell phones went dead. And politicians, colleagues, and journalists can't find him.

Neither can Anna, his 31-year-old Ukrainian fiancé, who says he is the father of her newborn child. And her story, snatched from the pages of a John le Carré novel, offers a glimpse at the human collateral damage of an intelligence operation in which the mysterious Mifsud was allegedly a central figure.

Anna, whom BuzzFeed News has agreed to identify only by her first name because she doesn’t want the attention, says she was seven months pregnant and engaged to Mifsud when he became the focus of world media attention as the professor who told Papadopoulos that Russia had “dirt” on Clinton.

Shortly thereafter, he dropped from sight. He also cut off all contact with Anna, including phone calls and WhatsApp messages. That silence has held, even six weeks after the daughter Anna says he fathered was born.

“He never helped me,” she said. “Only talk and promises.”

BuzzFeed News first contacted Anna in October. She refused to talk then, saying her relationship with Mifsud was private. According to WhatsApp messages she later shared, she told the professor about BuzzFeed News’ attempt to speak to her — and

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli....ffBPbM40R