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(05-26-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]I suspect it is the people's attitudes.

That may well be it.  On my weekly grocery run this morning, a lot more people were ignoring the mask wearing rules, with maybe 20% wearing them around their necks or not having one at all.  This would, however, assume that people are good at evaluating the real risk, perhaps subconsciously, and behaving accordingly.

It would also imply that we could reopen fully and count on people to adjust properly.  I'm not sure I'm ready to trust people that far.
Neil Howe weighs in.



(05-26-2020, 10:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-26-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]I suspect it is the people's attitudes.

That may well be it.  On my weekly grocery run this morning, a lot more people were ignoring the mask wearing rules, with maybe 20% wearing them around their necks or not having one at all.  This would, however, assume that people are good at evaluating the real risk, perhaps subconsciously, and behaving accordingly.

It would also imply that we could reopen fully and count on people to adjust properly.  I'm not sure I'm ready to trust people that far.

In my locale, the wearing of masks is roughly 30%, with most of the other 70% acting as if things are just like they've always been.  When I go to the grocery store, I see small gaggles of "friends" chatting away in the aisles unmasked and unavoidable by others.  It's a bit unnerving, though we serious folks have all developed the COVID dance to avoid them.

Our governor is mandating the wearing of masks both in and outdoors. I'll be shocked if it's obeyed.
Warren Dew
(05-26-2020, 04:32 PM)Mikebert Wrote: [ -> ]Are you talking about Massachusetts only?

Yes.  If your 75% reduction was for your whole "hot zone", I'll trust you on that, though I think that's dominated by New York.

I think Illinois is different because cases are actually increasing there; Chicago might be on its way to becoming another New York, perhaps in slow motion.

I do think that R hovering so close to 1.0 in so many states seems strange.  How can it be so easy to cut it down from, say, 2 or 3 to 0.9, but then so difficult to cut it from 0.9 to 0.5 or something?
Well of course it is dominated by New York. The whole country is dominated by New York, it has 29% of the total deaths nationwide.  The question I was asking when I first put this sort of plot together a few weeks ago is what does the country look like if you take (then) top three out (NY, NJ and MI). And the answer is the trend was different.  Since then, MA passed us by so it goes in and PA and IL are just under us, so I was up to 6, I had seen plots of similar analyses where to excluded NY, NJ, and CT, so I tossed in CT. The shape differences remain the same. The hot zone has a peak, because NY has one, but also because NJ, MA, MI and CT have them too, so its not just a NY artifact.
(05-27-2020, 02:54 PM)Mikebert Wrote: [ -> ]Since then, MA passed us by so it goes in and PA and IL are just under us, so I was up to 6, I had seen plots of similar analyses where to excluded NY, NJ, and CT, so I tossed in CT. The shape differences remain the same. The hot zone has a peak, because NY has one, but also because NJ, MA, MI and CT have them too, so its not just a NY artifact.

When I look at the graphs, to me it seems like Massachusetts looks like the country as a whole, with a rapid rise to a sharp "peak" followed by a slow decline.

New York is different, with a rapid rise that decelerated to a broader peak, followed by an initial rapid decline, followed by a slow decline.

Massachusetts and the rest of the country look like the R was suddenly changed in mid to late March, which was when all the mitigations were put into place, with a subsequent slow decline reflecting either R just below 1.0, or some other dynamic slowing down the decline.

New York looks like it might have started running into herd immunity effects just as the mitigations hit.

Early deaths are also much higher in New York, perhaps reflecting the health system's capacity being stressed there.
(05-27-2020, 02:54 PM)Mikebert Wrote: [ -> ]Warren Dew
(05-26-2020, 04:32 PM)Mikebert Wrote: [ -> ]Are you talking about Massachusetts only?

Yes.  If your 75% reduction was for your whole "hot zone", I'll trust you on that, though I think that's dominated by New York.

I think Illinois is different because cases are actually increasing there; Chicago might be on its way to becoming another New York, perhaps in slow motion.

I do think that R hovering so close to 1.0 in so many states seems strange.  How can it be so easy to cut it down from, say, 2 or 3 to 0.9, but then so difficult to cut it from 0.9 to 0.5 or something?

Well of course it is dominated by New York. The whole country is dominated by New York, it has 29% of the total deaths nationwide.  The question I was asking when I first put this sort of plot together a few weeks ago is what does the country look like if you take (then) top three out (NY, NJ and MI). And the answer is the trend was different.  Since then, MA passed us by so it goes in and PA and IL are just under us, so I was up to 6, I had seen plots of similar analyses where to excluded NY, NJ, and CT, so I tossed in CT. The shape differences remain the same. The hot zone has a peak, because NY has one, but also because NJ, MA, MI and CT have them too, so its not just a NY artifact.

The giant cities got hit first. Then come the rural areas -- wherever there is local crowding, as in prisons, food-processing plants (where conditions again resemble Upton Sinclair's The Jungle because such is good for keeping costs down), and perhaps the housing of farm laborers. Let us remember that we have been doing much on the cheap over the 3T and have continued doing so as long as we could get away with it. One can blame Donald Trump for gross incompetence all that we want, but we have set ourselves up for that. Some people are vulnerable in a "Christian and Corporate State" just for being the expendable poor.  The cities in which the opportunities gravitated because national politicians chose to ignore have the highest population densities and of course property rents. 

So COVID-19 ravages New York City. What says that it will remain there? New York City has been shipping off its homeless people to cities such as Binghamton -- so guess what one can expect in Binghamton. 

If you think America is bad -- wait till you see Brazil. Its President shows an unusual level of contempt for the vulnerable poor by recent standards. 

...Things will be different in the upcoming 1T. For one thing, we will be less able to neglect places left behind by the recent right-wing idea of progress (as much as possible going to people already filthy-rich with hardships for people who must suffer for those elites)... and we will have to give up the bad habit of doing things on the cheap because poor people will be the victims. 

Capitalism fares best when the capitalists do not fit a Marxist stereotype of self-indulgent, rapacious, corrupt, and vicious people who expect the economic order to serve them at the expense of everyone else.
Where there is a will there is a way.


[Image: 800.jpeg]

PARIS (AP) — Dining at a table where each person is enclosed by a clear plastic shield might look and sound futuristic, but it could be one way for some restaurants to reopen. It also might help out if your companion orders escargots, heavy on the garlic.
The prototype plastic shields are known as the “Plex’eat,” and they resemble big clear lampshades suspended from the ceiling. They are being showcased temporarily at H.A.N.D., a Parisian restaurant seeking a way to reopen its dining room as coronavirus restrictions are relaxed.

As restaurateurs around the world seek to resume in-person dining amid the pandemic, they want to adhere to social distancing rules while also trying to serve as many customers as health and safety measures will allow.

Some are putting mannequins at every other table to put some space between the actual customers, like at Augustas and Barbora, a restaurant in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius. Some of its faux diners are dressed casually, while others look as though they are at a ball. The clothes showcase the work of local fashion designers.

“We want to fill the space with fun things,” said owner Patrikas Ribas.



Vilnius Mayor Remigijus Simasius called the initiative a “perfect match of communal spirit and creativity working side by side.”

In Hofheim, Germany, the Beef’n Beer is using large teddy bears seated at some tables to keep diners properly spaced apart. They also ensure a cozy, less-sterile atmosphere.



At Amsterdam’s Mediamatic restaurant, the owners have erected small glass houses that surround each table, served by waiters in protective shields.



While many restaurants offered take-out and delivery during the health crisis to keep generating at least some income, such practices are less common in France, although Michelin starred chefs such as Alain Ducasse have started doing take-out service.



Owners are seeking solutions that will coax back customers while also easing their anxiety about catching the virus.

Mathieu Manzoni, the director of H.A.N.D, said he thinks the plastic shields are a “pretty, more poetic” solution for restaurateurs who fear that social distancing could cut their capacity by half or more.

“There is a bit of a panic,” Manzoni said.



Makers of the Plex’eat say they have received more than 200 preorders around the world, including from France, the U.S. and Japan.
Designer Christophe Gernigon said he got the idea after visiting a store in Bangkok “with three individual domes with chairs where people would sit and listen to music.”

https://apnews.com/f52803d023f00a13360a7bad722252e2
(05-27-2020, 03:49 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-27-2020, 02:54 PM)Mikebert Wrote: [ -> ]Since then, MA passed us by so it goes in and PA and IL are just under us, so I was up to 6, I had seen plots of similar analyses where to excluded NY, NJ, and CT, so I tossed in CT. The shape differences remain the same. The hot zone has a peak, because NY has one, but also because NJ, MA, MI and CT have them too, so its not just a NY artifact.

When I look at the graphs, to me it seems like Massachusetts looks like the country as a whole, with a rapid rise to a sharp "peak" followed by a slow decline.

New York is different, with a rapid rise that decelerated to a broader peak, followed by an initial rapid decline, followed by a slow decline.

Massachusetts and the rest of the country look like the R was suddenly changed in mid to late March, which was when all the mitigations were put into place, with a subsequent slow decline reflecting either R just below 1.0, or some other dynamic slowing down the decline.

New York looks like it might have started running into herd immunity effects just as the mitigations hit.

Early deaths are also much higher in New York, perhaps reflecting the health system's capacity being stressed there.

Not mentioned recently, but still to the point: it's getting warmer.  Let's assume that temperature has no direct effect on the virus, it certainly does on the people -- cooped-up for weeks and sick of it.  As we move our lives outdoors more and more, the ease of infection drops in tandem.  That will reverse in the Fall, so let's not get too far over our skis. Apparently, that's exactly the case in Brazil, where the seasons are changing in reverse to ours, and COVID-190 infections are rising rapidly.
(05-28-2020, 07:06 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Not mentioned recently, but still to the point: it's getting warmer.  Let's assume that temperature has no direct effect on the virus, it certainly does on the people -- cooped-up for weeks and sick of it.  As we move our lives outdoors more and more, the ease of infection drops in tandem.  That will reverse in the Fall, so let's not get too far over our skis. Apparently, that's exactly the case in Brazil, where the seasons are changing in reverse to ours, and COVID-190 infections are rising rapidly.

Except Brazil is right near the equator.  Climate swings there shouldn't be as large a factor.  That they are having trouble indicates the bug does not have a lot of problems with heat.
(05-28-2020, 07:12 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-28-2020, 07:06 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Not mentioned recently, but still to the point: it's getting warmer.  Let's assume that temperature has no direct effect on the virus, it certainly does on the people -- cooped-up for weeks and sick of it.  As we move our lives outdoors more and more, the ease of infection drops in tandem.  That will reverse in the Fall, so let's not get too far over our skis. Apparently, that's exactly the case in Brazil, where the seasons are changing in reverse to ours, and COVID-190 infections are rising rapidly.

Except Brazil is right near the equator.  Climate swings there shouldn't be as large a factor.  That they are having trouble indicates the bug does not have a lot of problems with heat.

Brazil is certainly less temperate than the US, but it's still seasonal in the social sense of the term. If it isn't the social effect of an arriving Fall, then it's a mystery to me why this is starting now.  I haven't heard much about countries further south, like Argentina, Uruguay and Chile.
(05-28-2020, 07:21 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Brazil is certainly less temperate than the US, but it's still seasonal in the social sense of the term. If it isn't the social effect of an arriving Fall, then it's a mystery to me why this is starting now.  I haven't heard much about countries further south, like Argentina, Uruguay and Chile.

I had been assuming they just had less travel with Wuhan or Europe.  They seem not too far behind the US.  I'm no expert on Brazil, however.
(05-28-2020, 07:06 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Not mentioned recently, but still to the point: it's getting warmer.  Let's assume that temperature has no direct effect on the virus, it certainly does on the people -- cooped-up for weeks and sick of it.  As we move our lives outdoors more and more, the ease of infection drops in tandem.  That will reverse in the Fall, so let's not get too far over our skis. Apparently, that's exactly the case in Brazil, where the seasons are changing in reverse to ours, and COVID-190 infections are rising rapidly.

I'm not as sure as you are that infection is harder outdoors than indoors, especially if you are spending most of the indoors time isolated.  Certainly in the Pacific Rim nations that have done the best, people wear masks outdoors as much as indoors.

I do agree, however, that there is a seasonal and latitude effect; I don't think it's a coincidence that southern states are generally doing better than northern states.  It might be due to temperature, or it might be due to absolute humidity, or it might be due to people getting out and getting vitamin D, which is critical to immune system function.

The idea that the Brazilian outbreak is only happening now because of seasonal effects is interesting.  I think it's more likely that the outbreak there is delayed because of a lower level of international travel, though.  The fact that they are having an outbreak despite being tropical suggests to me that mitigation measures are much worse there than in more developed countries.
(05-28-2020, 07:21 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-28-2020, 07:12 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-28-2020, 07:06 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Not mentioned recently, but still to the point: it's getting warmer.  Let's assume that temperature has no direct effect on the virus, it certainly does on the people -- cooped-up for weeks and sick of it.  As we move our lives outdoors more and more, the ease of infection drops in tandem.  That will reverse in the Fall, so let's not get too far over our skis. Apparently, that's exactly the case in Brazil, where the seasons are changing in reverse to ours, and COVID-190 infections are rising rapidly.

Except Brazil is right near the equator.  Climate swings there shouldn't be as large a factor.  That they are having trouble indicates the bug does not have a lot of problems with heat.

Brazil is certainly less temperate than the US, but it's still seasonal in the social sense of the term. If it isn't the social effect of an arriving Fall, then it's a mystery to me why this is starting now.  I haven't heard much about countries further south, like Argentina, Uruguay and Chile.

[Image: K%C3%B6ppen_climate_types_of_Brazil.svg]

The seasonality of Brazilian climates is mostly of rainfall. Brazil is nowhere far enough from the equator to have the fire-and-ice climates of the American Midwest as in Chicago and Omaha (Dfa) in which summers are hot as is typical in tropical climates but winters are cold enough for persistent snow in the winter. The southernmost part of Brazil has climates characteristic of the highest parts of the southern Appalachians in the highlands; lowlands in southern Brazil are more analogous to central and northern Florida. 

(Really, if "temperate" suggests "moderate", then there is nothing "moderate" about places such as Kansas City that have brutally-hot summers like those of Dallas and winters like those of Warsaw, Poland). I call a Dfa climate, whether at its more pole-ward fringe (Minneapolis, Detroit) or its more equator-ward  fringe (Indianapolis) "fire and ice". 

The real problem in Brazil is extreme poverty in the favelas, the slums around Brazil's giant cities. Reliable running water is a commonplace lack for Brazil's poor. Frequent washing with soap and water does much to kill the COVID-19 virus by destroying the outer membrane of the virus and causing its disintegration before the virus can cause infection.  Because soap is not a harsh chemical it can give us the impression that it does little more than facilitate the removal of dirt and germs. It kills viruses, so it is not simply the passive cleaner that many of us think it is.
OK -- here is what soap and water do, with a focus on COVID-19:





Comments:


1. Soap and water are anything but passive cleaners. Although far from harsh chemicals upon us unless we are to ingest them. they are simply brutal to The Enemy of this phase of the Crisis Era. 

2. Because COVID-19 has no human characteristics it is even easier to demonize than Nazis. I have seen stories of very old Holocaust survivors succumbing to COVID-19 -- talk about facing two horrific enemies similarly deadly while coming of age and while in extreme old age. 

I can't imagine, except for scientific purposes of archiving dangerous pathogens for research, anyone, irrespective of ideology, having any qualms about the complete extermination of this Enemy of Humanity.  

3. People have been under pressure to keep restroom breaks as short as possible in the interest of efficiency in factories, food-processing places of all kinds, and offices such as call centers. Keeping those breaks optimally short for maximal productivity on production lines and for full coverage of clerical needs has been part of the 3T drive for efficiency in factories and offices in a time in which managerial elites make the assumption that workers are lazy malingerers who fail to recognize the ethos that nothing matters except the power, indulgence, and gain of economic elites. COVID-19 is perfect for exploiting such an ethos. Economic elites in the world are as rapacious as mobsters and drug kingpins, Gilded Age plutocrats and even slave-owning planters, and they have been able to maximize profits by treating workers as harshly as possible. Practices of a 3T that have well served profit maximization have been killing people. In a 4T, dehumanized methods of getting things done prove dangerous folly.

Consider well: the more humane conditions of American factories in WWII got better and more reliable production in the Arsenal of Democracy than did the brutal conditions of German and Japanese war production -- especially at the absolute worst of outright slavery. 

4. We have enough productivity to meet all human needs in contemporary America and the rest of the First World.  Countries in the middle tier of economic development, such as China and Mexico, are likely out of that zone. Countries now in the early stages of industrialization such as India and Nigeria might learn from this. 

Economic elites trained to see workers simply as machines of meat are much of the problem. In the 1950's (a 1T) the supervisors of factories and offices were typically graduates not of MBA programs but instead of the School of Hard Knocks. Graduates of an informal institution that issued no formal degrees knew better how working people thought than do today's MBA grads who are often valued for their lack of empathy for working people in offices or factories alike. The supervisor and even the executive from the GI Generation (I got along better with these than I did with my supposed fellow Boomers) knew better what made his subordinates tick and knew when to back off. The MBA grad, typically driven by a high income and what one could buy with such, has been more likely to crack the whip to get even more productivity.

Bad behavior has bad consequences that on a large scale lead to economic meltdowns, military defeat in catastrophic wars, and violent revolutions. Part of the transition to the 1T will involve the mass retirement of the first wave of MBA graduates born in the 1950's who may have been the worst executives in American history despite their sheepskins. X may be just as materialistic as Boomer executives -- but 

(1) it is more pragmatic
(2) as a Reactive generation it cannot get away with as much as could an Idealist or Civic generation, and
(3) the current Civic generation stands to wield more political power irrespective of social class.  

Yes, COVID-19 is a consequence of bad behavior by powerful people, and not only Donald Trump. Even diseases can evolve to meet changing realities of a society. Bubonic plague was perfect for exploiting the swift movements of Mongol armies, easy transport by ship of rats stowing away, and the extreme crowding of impoverished cities of the late middle ages. Cholera outbreaks ravaged the densely-populated communities of early industrial workers of the 19th century. The Spanish Influenza could have had no more effective means of transport than masses of soldiers moving about during World War II. AIDS perfectly fit the Sexual Revolution and an epidemic of heroin use. COVID-19 could first stow away on jetliners forcing the same dirty air among passengers and then hop onto subways and city buses... and then pop up in prisons, nursing homes, and brutally-managed workplaces. We change our ways in a 4T lest everything come crashing down. Tens of millions of deaths are still theoretically possible, and such could destroy the entire basis of our current plutocracy.
(05-28-2020, 11:08 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]The real problem in Brazil is extreme poverty in the favelas, the slums around Brazil's giant cities. Reliable running water is a commonplace lack for Brazil's poor. Frequent washing with soap and water does much to kill the COVID-19 virus by destroying the outer membrane of the virus and causing its disintegration before the virus can cause infection.  Because soap is not a harsh chemical it can give us the impression that it does little more than facilitate the removal of dirt and germs. It kills viruses, so it is not simply the passive cleaner that many of us think it is.

I understand their leader is another guy similar to Trump in not pushing the isolation precautions as well, but yes.
(05-26-2020, 11:42 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]Neil Howe weighs in.




Always like hearing from him. He actually has a lot to say these days about COVID. His main take on the pandemic is that it is making us aware of how we need strong institutions and top-level authority (even if we want it limited to where its leverage is a requirement). And right now we have no plan for the pandemic so just expect rolling waves of infection.

Here's his podcast with quite a few episodes-

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cH...eEkJEAharw
Rank of countries in deaths per M population (among top 50 countries in # of cases, according to worldometer May 28, 12 AM GMT)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1. Belgium 810
2. Spain 580
3. UK 558
4. Italy 548
5. France 439
6. Sweden 423
7. Netherlands 345
8. Ireland 332
9. USA 312
10. Switzerland 222

Most new cases May 27
1. Brazil 24151
2. USA 22658
3. Russia 8371
4. India 7300
5. Peru 5874
6. Chile 4654
7. Mexico 3463
8. France 3325 (second surge?)
9. Iran 2258 (second surge?)
10. Pakistan 2076
11. Bangladesh 2029

New deaths May 27
1. USA 1223
2. Brazil 1067
3. Mexico 463
4. UK 377
5. India 177
6. Russia 174
7. Peru 116
8. Canada 112
9. Italy 70
10. France 66

Total cases per 1M pop
1. Qatar 17701
2. Spain 6096
3. Bahrain 5929
4. Singapore 5687
5. Kuwait 5654
6. USA 5346
7. Ireland 5036
8. Belgium 4993
9. Chile 4552
10. Peru 4306
11. Belarus 4218
12. UK 3966
13. Italy 3832
14. Switzerland 3562
15. Sweden 3540

Most tests per M pop
1. UAE 213629
2. Bahrain 175706
3. Denmark 100693
4. Portugal 76349
5. Spain 76071
6. Qatar 71977
7. Belgium 70678
8. Russia 66479
9. Kuwait 66206
10. Ireland 66049
11. Italy 60909
12. Israel 60724
13. UK 57743
14. Singapore 57250
15. Belarus 52833
16. USA 49365
(no info on China given on this)
The interesting thing about 4th turnings, is that they are social moments. 2nd turnings are supposed to be totally opposite, but that's not always true. Often there is some of the opposite trend within the other. They are both social moments.

The transcendentalists came out in force with their writings in the 1850s, and Whitman's poetry in the 1860s; and the romantic movement got going in Europe in the French Revolution. Even in the 1930s and 40s there were some religious and metaphysical interests going.

It's even more clear that 2nd turnings also include movements to change society, and they are often effective. And it's not just about freedom movements for individuals; especially in the more "apollonian" 2nd turning the progressive movement pushed for a lot of reforms of bad practices by industry, and labor unions and socialist parties advanced as they never have before or since. And although there were huge rights movements in the 60s and 70s, the environment and peace movements of the 1960s were not just about rights, but as John Lennon said a world where we could be one. And at the 2nd turning's beginning, the Great Society completed the New Deal.

In the 2nd turning, there is more prosperity, but often the economy is unstable, and more recessions occur than during 1st and 3rd turnings. But it's not a time when we face destruction of we don't take action, which is the case in 4th turnings. In 2nd turnings institutions still work but changes are being demanded of them. In 4th turnings they fall apart and have to be rebuilt in a different way.

But sometimes in 4th turnings, as we face the crisis, we also turn toward spiritual sources for answers too. Not so much to find self-reliance, as in a typical USA 2nd or 3rd turning, but to find a spiritual basis for building a community which serves human needs, including spiritual and aesthetic needs. America tends to separate these too much, but that's why our society is sick. The more we can combine 2nd and 4th turnings in our social moments, the healthier we will be as a society and culture.

We have no leadership now in the covid crisis, as Mr. Howe pointed out (and as I point out). We have not taken a stand and are not planning out any solutions, but waxing and waning from one direction to the next, even from day to day. One think our 4T needs to teach us, is to respect government and leadership again. I hope we are ready to learn that lesson, and vote Democratic in November, and then continue to be civially active and pressuring our leaders to serve the people. "We're all in this together" has been a Democratic Party slogan used by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Now everyone except the crazy resisters is using it. It's a 4T mood, and I hope it sticks around for a while and determines our votes for a while.
(05-28-2020, 12:55 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-28-2020, 11:08 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]The real problem in Brazil is extreme poverty in the favelas, the slums around Brazil's giant cities. Reliable running water is a commonplace lack for Brazil's poor. Frequent washing with soap and water does much to kill the COVID-19 virus by destroying the outer membrane of the virus and causing its disintegration before the virus can cause infection.  Because soap is not a harsh chemical it can give us the impression that it does little more than facilitate the removal of dirt and germs. It kills viruses, so it is not simply the passive cleaner that many of us think it is.

I understand their leader is another guy similar to Trump in not pushing the isolation precautions as well, but yes.

Indeed, Bolsonaro is even more brazen and more consistent in his denials of covid, and in his overall dedication to wanton destruction (such as clearing the amazon rainforest). He is not only a Trump clone, and is valued and complimented as such by Trump, but a caricature of him; a clown acting out the role of a clown. He is even more of a ridiculous lunatic than Trump. I don't know if they have late-night TV comics there, but they must be the richest people in the country by now if they do. It is a sad commentary on that country, which had a fairly good leader for a while, Mr. Lulu, who is re-emerging. But meanwhile Brazil is reaping the rewards of their horrible mistake. And the crisis is far worse than it appears, apparently, because there is so little testing that something like a third of all the tests they do make must be positive, according to the stats.



(05-28-2020, 10:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The interesting thing about 4th turnings, is that they are social moments. 2nd turnings are supposed to be totally opposite, but that's not always true. Often there is some of the opposite trend within the other. They are both social moments.

The transcendentalists came out in force with their writings in the 1850s, and Whitman's poetry in the 1860s; and the romantic movement got going in Europe in the French Revolution. Even in the 1930s and 40s there were some religious and metaphysical interests going.

It's even more clear that 2nd turnings also include movements to change society, and they are often effective. And it's not just about freedom movements for individuals; especially in the more "apollonian" 2nd turning the progressive movement pushed for a lot of reforms of bad practices by industry, and labor unions and socialist parties advanced as they never have before or since. And although there were huge rights movements in the 60s and 70s, the environment and peace movements of the 1960s were not just about rights, but as John Lennon said a world where we could be one. And at the 2nd turning's beginning, the Great Society completed the New Deal.

In the 2nd turning, there is more prosperity, but often the economy is unstable, and more recessions occur than during 1st and 3rd turnings. But it's not a time when we face destruction of we don't take action, which is the case in 4th turnings. In 2nd turnings institutions still work but changes are being demanded of them. In 4th turnings they fall apart and have to be rebuilt in a different way.

But sometimes in 4th turnings, as we face the crisis, we also turn toward spiritual sources for answers too. Not so much to find self-reliance, as in a typical USA 2nd or 3rd turning, but to find a spiritual basis for building a community which serves human needs, including spiritual and aesthetic needs. America tends to separate these too much, but that's why our society is sick. The more we can combine 2nd and 4th turnings in our social moments, the healthier we will be as a society and culture.

We have no leadership now in the covid crisis, as Mr. Howe pointed out (and as I point out). We have not taken a stand and are not planning out any solutions, but waxing and waning from one direction to the next, even from day to day. One think our 4T needs to teach us, is to respect government and leadership again. I hope we are ready to learn that lesson, and vote Democratic in November, and then continue to be civially active and pressuring our leaders to serve the people. "We're all in this together" has been a Democratic Party slogan used by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Now everyone except the crazy resisters is using it. It's a 4T mood, and I hope it sticks around for a while and determines our votes for a while.
Unfortunately, the we are in this together slogan isn't going to last much longer. We are seeing your sides leadership in Minneapolis RIGHT NOW and it sucks. Personally, I don't care if your blue folks loot and burn the fucking place to the ground.