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(06-11-2020, 11:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Arguably, all Awakenings also move progressive action forward, unlike 1 and 3Ts, but the conservative faction still has equal power overall, whereas in 4Ts there comes a time when the conservative opposition is defeated more fully by progressive action.

I agree that this pattern of progressive dominance in the even turnings of the Information Age holds for the US. I am less sure it is universal in all cultures. In the US we have the slave compromises giving the conservatives a natural ability to block progressive change. Thus, say, in Europe you have more progressive governments in the European version of socialism. The US sees progress thwarted in most times, thus the cycles become partisan.
(06-11-2020, 09:13 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-11-2020, 08:35 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]Eric said "total cases", "much higher", and "any EU country"; your numbers aren't relevant to any of those claims.  Unlike Eric, though, I don't think you're not stupid enough to realize your post is irrelevant to the discussion.

It depends on whether you care about how effective the various plans are, or if you just care about making partisan points.  The US blew the chance to defend the borders looking at China and letting the virus getting hold in dense states via Europe and by lack of a national approach.  We definitely made mistakes, and it shows no matter if you look at absolute numbers or per million averages or however you arrange the statistics.

I care less about assigning the blame for mistakes already made than for the ones we are currently making.  We can revisit the first few months later when this is all past.  For now, the states relaxing isolation with their rate of infection still going up and their hospitals nearly at capacity are inviting catastrophe, and the federal response seems to be to walk away.  Ignoring the science and the problem may work in the short term against global warming, but the bug has a shorter incubation time.

Exactly!  Why should anyone think the US is doing even a mediocre job with this pandemic.  We have the two best infectious disease entities in the world (the CDC and Fort Detrick), yet we failed miserably at what we've always done best.  We need to admit that the GOP do-nothing model is an abject failure, and pretending otherwise just makes matters worse.  

We'll look back in 50 years, and wonder how we allowed a conspiracy theory spouting party to run roughshod over even the most communal of activities.  I hope the look-back will also include a narrative about our eventual success, but that narrative requires us to, you know, actually succeed!
(06-11-2020, 11:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-11-2020, 10:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-11-2020, 10:04 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]I know that you've made the mistake of associating me and others with racism as your racists and ignorant racist believers continue to   show us obvious signs of racism and support for racism and promotion of racism. You may as well be clan because you and others aren't all that much different than them these days.

You have not been obviously racist in your posting, but this does not mean the Republican Party doesn't welcome the racist votes.  LBJ went all progressive, allied with MLK, and went after the black vote with his civil rights legislation and war on poverty.  The Republicans did the obvious.  I don't think the Republicans will try to stop a very popular movement towards equality taking place in the crisis heart.  I suspect they would fail miserably if they tried.  As a blue guy, I almost want them to try.  It seems most have recognized the proverbial handwriting on the wall and are laying low.

I am of the mind that the conservative rural stay-the-same faction has the advantage for three plus turnings, but this is more than made up for by progressive action during and resulting from the crisis heart.  Well, the last awakening might have been transformational, and that was the only awakening seen in the Information Age, possibly representative, but that is a discussion for another day.  Anyway, the crisis heart is finally here.  Conservatives will have to learn to hang onto their hats for a while.

Arguably, all Awakenings also move progressive action forward, unlike 1 and 3Ts, but the conservative faction still has equal power overall, whereas in 4Ts there comes a time when the conservative opposition is defeated more fully by progressive action.

I have to side with Bob on this.  Yes, 2Ts point a spotlight on the faults in society, but they typically produce no positive changes.  This last 2T actually solidified the power of the reactionary element in this country and many other parts of the world as well.  But eventually, the rot is unavoidably bad, and action is needed to alter or eliminate it.  That's where we are -- at the beginning of the resolution.  But let's not assume we know what that resolution will actually turn out to be.  We have a hint of where we'll end, but we're still moving toward the problem. 

Here, in the US, Biden won't be a savior; he'll be a placeholder at best.  Someone or something else needs to take center stage before we can resolve this mess, and the list of potential leaders is short.
(06-12-2020, 08:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]I have to side with Bob on this.  Yes, 2Ts point a spotlight on the faults in society, but they typically produce no positive changes.  This last 2T actually solidified the power of the reactionary element in this country and many other parts of the world as well.  But eventually, the rot is unavoidably bad, and action is needed to alter or eliminate it.  That's where we are -- at the beginning of the resolution.  But let's not assume we know what that resolution will actually turn out to be.  We have a hint of where we'll end, but we're still moving toward the problem. 

Here, in the US, Biden won't be a savior; he'll be a placeholder at best.  Someone or something else needs to take center stage before we can resolve this mess, and the list of potential leaders is short.

The 1960s and the Conscious Revolution had two faces. The first half ended the progressive period. The second half initiated the conservative period. As that was the first and thus far only Information Age awakening, I am vaguely anticipating that the next awakening will more closely resemble the 1960s than the religious revivals common in the Industrial Age.

These two faces, though, will be hard to repeat. The blue boomers backed by support from the GIs to actually solve the problems yelled about made the 1960s much more change inducing than the typical awakening. In return, the conservative reaction created a much greater kickback. The boomer generation became very much split. The red half very determined that if the future shock and extreme change of the 1960s had to be accepted for the most part, there would be no more change.

I have trouble seeing that repeat. I can see the economy being wrecked by the bug in the near future, therefore the ecological and global warming aspects of the blue agenda being left out of the crisis resolution. If so, the next group of prophets might turn out to be my anticipated green generation, and that will be at the center of what they protest for. The next 2T will be when the ecological problems will be pushed inevitably forward. I don’t see the prophets as letting their elders continue to dither. They will force the early awakening to be as transformational as the last 2T.

Will a conservative backlash develop against that? Will an obstructionist wave destroy the save the planet movement to make sure the planet gets killed? I have a bit of trouble with that. The ecology should be really solid by then, the science beyond dispute.

We’ll have to wait to see how the conservatives respond, how the try to fight ecological thinking as the new selfish unraveling inevitably takes its turn. I can’t believe they will be as greedy as the current reds, but I sort of expect them to try.
(06-12-2020, 08:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-11-2020, 11:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-11-2020, 10:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-11-2020, 10:04 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]I know that you've made the mistake of associating me and others with racism as your racists and ignorant racist believers continue to   show us obvious signs of racism and support for racism and promotion of racism. You may as well be clan because you and others aren't all that much different than them these days.

You have not been obviously racist in your posting, but this does not mean the Republican Party doesn't welcome the racist votes.  LBJ went all progressive, allied with MLK, and went after the black vote with his civil rights legislation and war on poverty.  The Republicans did the obvious.  I don't think the Republicans will try to stop a very popular movement towards equality taking place in the crisis heart.  I suspect they would fail miserably if they tried.  As a blue guy, I almost want them to try.  It seems most have recognized the proverbial handwriting on the wall and are laying low.

I am of the mind that the conservative rural stay-the-same faction has the advantage for three plus turnings, but this is more than made up for by progressive action during and resulting from the crisis heart.  Well, the last awakening might have been transformational, and that was the only awakening seen in the Information Age, possibly representative, but that is a discussion for another day.  Anyway, the crisis heart is finally here.  Conservatives will have to learn to hang onto their hats for a while.

Arguably, all Awakenings also move progressive action forward, unlike 1 and 3Ts, but the conservative faction still has equal power overall, whereas in 4Ts there comes a time when the conservative opposition is defeated more fully by progressive action.

I have to side with Bob on this.  Yes, 2Ts point a spotlight on the faults in society, but they typically produce no positive changes.  This last 2T actually solidified the power of the reactionary element in this country and many other parts of the world as well.  But eventually, the rot is unavoidably bad, and action is needed to alter or eliminate it.  That's where we are -- at the beginning of the resolution.  But let's not assume we know what that resolution will actually turn out to be.  We have a hint of where we'll end, but we're still moving toward the problem. 

Here, in the US, Biden won't be a savior; he'll be a placeholder at best.  Someone or something else needs to take center stage before we can resolve this mess, and the list of potential leaders is short.

There is much to cite in favor of progress during 2Ts. In the last one, the ecology and environmental movement produced lasting results, including founding of the EPA and many laws and agencies that reduced pollution substantially in our air and water, and saved many natural areas and began restoration. Our San Francisco Bay is one striking example. Since the mid-60s, it was transformed from what Pete Seeger called a garbage dump into a wonderful place full of life. And in Seeger's own neighborhood, the Hudson River was cleaned up and transformed too, and so were many other places. Just that field alone is enough to heap huge praises on the 2T, which personally I think is the best by far in the quality of the people I met and their friendliness, preoccupations, interests and talents. The consumer movement started by Ralph Nader in 1966 has created many protections for the people that did not exist before. 

The civil rights movement originated in the 1T, but it was the first year of the 2T that the bill got passed, and from there voting rights were secured and many great society programs reduced poverty in measurable ways. While the military industrial complex went haywire, it was also a notable achievement that a protest movement for the first time in history stopped a war. The gay and lesbian folks experienced liberation that no-one can knock among those who never experienced it, and this liberation extended to many folks in many ways. Feminism opened up many opportunities for women, who have broken through many glass ceilings. I found the 2T the most liberating period of my life, as the bullies receded and became friendly, and so many horizons opened up that I had very little inkling of in the uptight, restricted and brutal 1T. Self esteem and human potential increased. All the social movements of our time originated in these wonderful 2T years.

But as I said, it was not all progress either, as I admitted by writing above that "the conservative faction still has equal power overall." Today's conservative movement also dates from the 2T, although it had antecedents. It did not fully take power though until Reagan's re-election was secured in the last couple of years. The reversals of Reaganomics that began in the late 2T have continued until today, and some of the advances in reducing poverty were reversed in these years. Unions declined and prices skyrocketed while wages and salaries stagnated for all but the wealthy. But many of the 2T advances have been permanent, even if much remains to be accomplished. Some or all of this progress is likely to be resumed in the 2020s.

Previous 2Ts were scarcely less effective in creating progress. The progressive era is named such for a reason. The first conservation movement, restraint and reform of the trusts and monopolies, regulations on food safety and working conditions, advance of unions and socialist parties, etc. Outdoor activities expanded. Expansion of the money supply. The women's suffrage movement led to them getting the vote. Without the revolution in society that began in this 2T, the New Deal would never have happened.

Likewise, slavery would not have ended without the abolitionist movement of the 1830s and 40s. Working conditions were reformed and so were conditions in asylums and prisons thanks to the first-ever humanitarian activities of this era. Public education as we know it was created. The American Revolution would not have happened without the Great Awakening and Enlightenment that preceded it. All parliamentary systems in the world originated in the British Great Rebellion. The Reformation of the Catholic Church cleaned up its practices in that 2T.

Leaders will not determine our progress or lack thereof in our 4T. The people will make progress, and will make the leaders. Biden will have to assume the mantle. He will resist, but will comply. I think destiny is calling and the call will be answered.
(06-12-2020, 12:51 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 08:27 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]I have to side with Bob on this.  Yes, 2Ts point a spotlight on the faults in society, but they typically produce no positive changes.  This last 2T actually solidified the power of the reactionary element in this country and many other parts of the world as well.  But eventually, the rot is unavoidably bad, and action is needed to alter or eliminate it.  That's where we are -- at the beginning of the resolution.  But let's not assume we know what that resolution will actually turn out to be.  We have a hint of where we'll end, but we're still moving toward the problem. 

Here, in the US, Biden won't be a savior; he'll be a placeholder at best.  Someone or something else needs to take center stage before we can resolve this mess, and the list of potential leaders is short.

The 1960s and the Conscious Revolution had two faces.  The first half ended the progressive period.  The second half initiated the conservative period.  As that was the first and thus far only Information Age awakening, I am vaguely anticipating that the next awakening will more closely resemble the 1960s than the religious revivals common in the Industrial Age.

These two faces, though, will be hard to repeat.  The blue boomers backed by support from the GIs to actually solve the problems yelled about made the 1960s much more change inducing than the typical awakening.  In return, the conservative reaction created a much greater kickback.  The boomer generation became very much split.  The red half very determined that if the future shock and extreme change of the 1960s had to be accepted for the most part, there would be no more change.

I have trouble seeing that repeat.  I can see the economy being wrecked by the bug in the near future, therefore the ecological and global warming aspects of the blue agenda being left out of the crisis resolution.  If so, the next group of prophets might turn out to be my anticipated green generation, and that will be at the center of what they protest for.  The next 2T will be when the ecological problems will be pushed inevitably forward.  I don’t see the prophets as letting their elders continue to dither.  They will force the early awakening to be as transformational as the last 2T.

Will a conservative backlash develop against that?  Will an obstructionist wave destroy the save the planet movement to make sure the planet gets killed?  I have a bit of trouble with that.  The ecology should be really solid by then, the science beyond dispute.

We’ll have to wait to see how the conservatives respond, how the try to fight ecological thinking as the new selfish unraveling inevitably takes its turn.  I can’t believe they will be as greedy as the current reds, but I sort of expect them to try.

The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.
(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?
(06-12-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?

I think the ecology will not be entirely solved by the time of the next Awakening, so, as I suggested, you are right I think that it will be perhaps still the major item. It's just that we will need to make big strides on global warming in this turning, or it will be too late to do it all in the next Awakening. At that time the challenge will be to make more substantial changes in our ways of life and communities. It could be called the Green Revolution, and the young prophets will be the green pioneers and the alpha wave movement.

Meanwhile, climate change is definitely on Biden's agenda, as it is for all the Democratic candidates at all levels. Restimulating the economy and revitalizing the ecology will increasingly be seen as in harmony. The only obstacle to important actions on this issue in the 4T will be how much Republican power remains, and for how long. The battle between red and blue is likely to be resolved only by the end of the decade. But by then, the red side will be making rearguard and desperate attempts in a losing cause. How much institutional change will be needed to allow for a blue triumph remains to be seen, but it could be considerable. Although the new consensus will consolidate the changes, Classic Xer and Warren will be happier with the following 1T when some family values and patriotism return for a while.

The cycles I see indicate that the next Awakening will fulfill the previous one, but with more tenacity and clarity and less chaos. So I also see another great society and further curbs on racism, and this will have a global reach this time. I predicted this global extension years ago, and we already see the portents this week. But the virtual society that millennials and "Zers" are so involved in and pushing forward could lead to some escapes from it in the next Awakening, which will be another "back to Nature" thrust. Sex will be hot again as well, and interest in the occult and spirituality will revive again too. Evangelism of various kinds could erupt in 2048. 

All this too, and more, is not all that different from the previous awakening, except the "matrix" will have gone so much further by then than what worried people in the sixties like punch cards and big blue mainframes taking over our lives. Reclaiming our bodies and souls from the information age will be an existential need. Stimulating the senses will be uppermost. Escapism in general could be a major theme, together with greater emphasis on community building, city-redesign, and education that involves young people with organic activities and working together. Health care reform will be a big theme as well, and re-envisioning the workplace. The sixties opened the door on these trends, but they were never really taken very far.

The arts will hark back to the second-to-previous awakening with a new kind of impressionism and organic art-nouveau-like style in the early awakening years, and later on in the 2050s a literature revival also akin to that earlier awakening era in the 1900s. The city beautiful movement of that time will be revived. In the later years in the 2050s, diplomacy and networking will get intense again, and this will be a more optimistic and enthusiastic era than the 1970s were, again in that way more resembling the late 1890s and the 1900s. Cynicism, disillusion, economic recessions. ecological breakdowns, and existential anxiety will likely return in the 2060s, as the advances of the late 2040s may then seem inadequate and false already. This will be our next 3T.
(06-12-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?

Biden is a quintessential Silent.  He's all about pouring oil on troubled water, and a lot less about taking a stand.  Unfortunately, as desirable as his sympathetic position is, it mends the heart but has zero impact on actual problems. That said, you can't doubt that he's fully sincere. Look at his personal history. But he's not the right person to hold that job today. Worse, it's looking more likely that his VP choice will be someone like him in focus: healing wounds, not building better institutions. It will be a lost opportunity.
(06-13-2020, 07:39 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?

Biden is a quintessential Silent.  He's all about pouring oil on troubled water, and a lot less about taking a stand.  Unfortunately, as desirable as his sympathetic position is, it mends the heart but has zero impact on actual problems. That said, you can't doubt that he's fully sincere.  Look at his personal history.  But he's not the right person to hold that job today.  Worse, it's looking more likely that his VP choice will be someone like him in focus: healing wounds, not building better institutions.  It will be a lost opportunity.

Again I remind you. You put too much stock in leaders. The leader will have to bend to the national will.
(06-13-2020, 01:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-13-2020, 07:39 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?

Biden is a quintessential Silent.  He's all about pouring oil on troubled water, and a lot less about taking a stand.  Unfortunately, as desirable as his sympathetic position is, it mends the heart but has zero impact on actual problems. That said, you can't doubt that he's fully sincere.  Look at his personal history.  But he's not the right person to hold that job today.  Worse, it's looking more likely that his VP choice will be someone like him in focus: healing wounds, not building better institutions.  It will be a lost opportunity.

Again I remind you. You put too much stock in leaders. The leader will have to bend to the national will.

You assume there still is such a thing as national will.  I see a shattered system made up of groups of likeminded individuals, but few if any universal beliefs.  Coalescing that into a powerful whole is the work of leaders -- far too few in evidence at the moment.
(06-13-2020, 07:39 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?

Biden is a quintessential Silent.  He's all about pouring oil on troubled water, and a lot less about taking a stand.  Unfortunately, as desirable as his sympathetic position is, it mends the heart but has zero impact on actual problems. That said, you can't doubt that he's fully sincere.  Look at his personal history.  But he's not the right person to hold that job today.  Worse, it's looking more likely that his VP choice will be someone like him in focus: healing wounds, not building better institutions.  It will be a lost opportunity.

1. It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era. Economic hardships are real, and if they do happen it is best that people not seek an easy way out. Military disasters are most likely to be catastrophic to those societies that welcome war as a source of glory than to those that see war with trepidation. Survival comes first, and that allows one's nation to preserve necessary characteristics of that society. War will afford plenty of opportunity for glory without anyone seeking it. In the end, a society that did not want the war might succeed because it can impose a workable peace. The Axis powers failed to no small extent because they were unable to achieve any workable peace; contrast the British and Americans. This Crisis Era seems to have a horrible virus that kills on the scale of a bungled war... and consider that the virus SARS-2 (COVID-19) is itself a demonized enemy in the same sense that Hitler, Tojo, and Mussolini were in America in early 1942. 

That is already 120,000 deaths in the United States alone. Whatever one's ideology one has every excuse for hating a horrific virus, much as Americans had cause for loathing Osama bin Laden. On its worst days COVID-19 killed as many Americans as did the horrors of 9/11.Most Americans were delighted with the gangland-style hit upon Osama bin Laden. The difference between Obama's hit upon bin Laden and the hit that Al Capone did upon his gangland rivals are that  (1) Obama isn't a gangster, but could learn even from Chicago gangsters if such fit his needs -- and America's need, and (2) sometimes a national leader must use the mailed fist under the velvet glove; one needs no mailed fist for dealing with Angela Merkel, but it is the only fit way of dealing with Osama bin Laden, and (3) that if some other medium-to-major power experiences such a terrorist attack and must strike similarly, then a similar gangland hit is precisely what we would expect. Not that anyone would commandeer jetliners as weapons of destruction and turn those against high-profile buildings in Beijing or Shanghai... not even Langley, Virginia (home of the Central Intelligence Agency) would be a safe haven.       

Are we truly sure that COVID-19 is fading? Some people are cautious enough to still be wearing masks into public places. In my case that allows me to enjoy the most normal life possible without feeling guilty. I can go to the store, gas station, doctor's office the teller window, or the fast-food take-out window. What can I not do? I still lack the confidence to go into a table-service restaurant. For the first time in several months I have gone to a bookstore and a thrift store. I look forward to getting a haircut. For the first time in a long time I will feel that I will be getting my money's worth in a hair cut. But I digress here.

What happens if we get a second wave? I see plenty of reckless people not wearing masks. May they get away with it without causing great harm.  

Crisis eras are dangerous times, and it is best that if one is on a trail and starts to see evidence of a bear or cougar that one turn back rather than investigating the reality of the bear or cougar. Mitigation of risk is an essential part of good leadership. 

2. We have not yet had a Silent President; indeed we have had a President two generations (OK, Biden is born in 1942 and Obama is born in 1961, but Obama is definitely not a Boomer). We got a taste of a mature Reactive characteristic of a post-Crisis era as President in Obama. We may need an Adaptive President to resolve some issues that we never resolved. It is unfortunate that we never had a TR-like President and probably won't for another forty years or so, and Biden may be too late to have the strongest effect.   

3. Donald Trump is a disaster. The only good emerging from his catastrophic Presidency is that we are discovering what we cannot tolerate in top leadership. People who may have fallen asleep while a high-school civics teacher droned on about the rule of law and of checks and balances are finding out exactly that -- the hard way. We also are learning the hard way that character matters greatly in political as well as commercial and cultural leadership. Trump trivializes the need for expertise, overrating his competence even in medicine.

Consider that the economic meltdown that started in 2007 was almost entirely a consequence of amoral decisions by economic leaders. 

As Donald Trump sees his chances of re-election fading through honest means, I can only imagine the ruthlessness of any method that he has of getting re-elected ... if he wants to be re-elected.

Joe Biden is definitely not Trump. That is good enough reason to support his Presidential bid. 

4. Joe Biden may be a one-term President for the right reasons.  Age. If he sees himself becoming less reliable due to mental or physical decay he may resign for reasons of health. Anyone past 75 holding a responsible position is operating on borrowed time. Biden seems to have done much right; he seems far fitter intellectually and physically than Trump. 

-- MY TREPIDATION --  


I know, I know, I know. The scariest thing about Joe Biden is that he is old enough that despite a long career in public office (he was a US Senator from age 30 to age 66, and then a Vice-President for eight years... and not a passive Veep) he has some superficial resemblance to President James Buchanan who despite his qualifications was not up to the rapid change in political reality in America. Buchanan is by far the worst of all Adaptive Presidents. Yes, things are moving rapidly in this Crisis. 

Could events overtake him? They have certainly overtaken Donald Trump.
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.

This one depends on perspective. S&H predicted the crisis always had more effect than was believed possible going in. The Revolution saw us achieve total independence from Britain. The Civil Was saw us ending slavery. The Great Depression and World War II saw us with government regulation of the economy and a role as world policeman. These were only dreams before the trigger.

I see the conflict between the old and new values as having been well defined by the unravelling debates. The old values have or are taking major hits. The Tea Party has made it difficult for establishment Republicans to get near the White House, and even that has lost its champion in Trump. The protestors are giving the racist faction a black eye. Those that believe they can ignore problems and live in a no science daydream of small government and low taxes are having to confront the virus. If you count September 11 and Bush 43’s neocolonialism for teaching lessons learned, you have the Neo Cons discredited and the reluctance to put boots on the ground confirming the traditional desire to avoid war.

So in terms of wiping out the old values, this crisis is not a dud. It has the potential to succeed completely when the high tradition of stomping on the old values comes around. The conservative ideas of supporting slaves, kings and avoiding foreign entanglements got wiped out. The current set of old values looks similarly disastrous.

Now, I remain dubious of adding more ideas to the crisis. The economy does look to end up in a mess. Environmentalism may be left for the back burner until the new prophets find their voice. That I cannot see yet.
(06-14-2020, 01:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.

This one depends on perspective.  S&H predicted the crisis always had more effect than was believed possible going in.  The Revolution saw us achieve total independence from Britain.  The Civil Was saw us ending slavery.  The Great Depression and World War II saw us with government regulation of the economy and a role as world policeman.  These were only dreams before the trigger.

I see the conflict between the old and new values as having been well defined by the unravelling debates.  The old values have or are taking major hits.  The Tea Party has made it difficult for establishment Republicans to get near the White House, and even that has lost its champion in Trump.  The protestors are giving the racist faction a black eye.  Those that believe they can ignore problems and live in a no science daydream of small government and low taxes are having to confront the virus.  If you count September 11 and Bush 43’s neocolonialism for teaching lessons learned, you have the Neo Cons discredited and the reluctance to put boots on the ground confirming the traditional desire to avoid war.

So in terms of wiping out the old values, this crisis is not a dud.  It has the potential to succeed completely when the high tradition of stomping on the old values comes around.  The conservative ideas of supporting slaves, kings and avoiding foreign entanglements got wiped out.  The current set of old values looks similarly disastrous.

Now, I remain dubious of adding more ideas to the crisis.  The economy does look to end up in a mess.  Environmentalism may be left for the back burner until the new prophets find their voice.  That I cannot see yet.

The Millennials are not leaving environmentalism for the back burner. The climate strike is ongoing. Nor is anyone of conscience. Remember, this 4T has 10 years left, and we are not at its peak yet. Global warming remains the top item.
(06-14-2020, 01:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.

Now, I remain dubious of adding more ideas to the crisis. The economy does look to end up in a mess. Environmentalism may be left for the back burner until the new prophets find their voice. That I cannot see yet.

Another thing to remember is that a 4T brings more change than we expect. So although we might have fewer expectations for fulfilling our own desires, as a society once a 4T gets going, Katy bar the door. Lots more could happen than we think.

Tom Steyer said if he elected, he would declare a state of emergency regarding the climate crisis. Other candidates agreed. So now we have 3 states of emergency. I remain dubious of NOT adding ideas to the crisis, because we will not be adding them. They will add themselves.
(06-14-2020, 02:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 01:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.

Now, I remain dubious of adding more ideas to the crisis.  The economy does look to end up in a mess.  Environmentalism may be left for the back burner until the new prophets find their voice.  That I cannot see yet.

Another thing to remember is that a 4T brings more change than we expect. So although we might have fewer expectations for fulfilling our own desires, as a society once a 4T gets going, Katy bar the door. Lots more could happen than we think.

Tom Steyer said if he elected, he would declare a state of emergency regarding the climate crisis. Other candidates agreed. So now we have 3 states of emergency. I remain dubious of NOT adding ideas to the crisis, because we will not be adding them. They will add themselves.

I hope you are right, but it is too soon to celebrate going the extra step.
(06-14-2020, 03:03 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 02:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 01:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.

Now, I remain dubious of adding more ideas to the crisis.  The economy does look to end up in a mess.  Environmentalism may be left for the back burner until the new prophets find their voice.  That I cannot see yet.

Another thing to remember is that a 4T brings more change than we expect. So although we might have fewer expectations for fulfilling our own desires, as a society once a 4T gets going, Katy bar the door. Lots more could happen than we think.

Tom Steyer said if he elected, he would declare a state of emergency regarding the climate crisis. Other candidates agreed. So now we have 3 states of emergency. I remain dubious of NOT adding ideas to the crisis, because we will not be adding them. They will add themselves.

I hope you are right, but it is too soon to celebrate going the extra step.

The climate crisis is third burner right now. The 4T is not limited to what's uppermost right now, though. Even 2 weeks ago racism and police brutality was not top of the list; now it is. I think our crisis will be somewhat kaleidoscopic. 

But it all goes back to the kind of leadership and ideology we have chosen for the last 40 years, and our divided nation. That's what ties all these things together, and is the main item to resolve somehow.

IOW, the folks like Classic Xer have to be defeated Smile

Our 4T is unofficially known as the Cold Civil War. That's what it is, at least as long as it remains cold.
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-13-2020, 07:39 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?

Biden is a quintessential Silent.  He's all about pouring oil on troubled water, and a lot less about taking a stand.  Unfortunately, as desirable as his sympathetic position is, it mends the heart but has zero impact on actual problems. That said, you can't doubt that he's fully sincere.  Look at his personal history.  But he's not the right person to hold that job today.  Worse, it's looking more likely that his VP choice will be someone like him in focus: healing wounds, not building better institutions.  It will be a lost opportunity.

1. It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era. Economic hardships are real, and if they do happen it is best that people not seek an easy way out. Military disasters are most likely to be catastrophic to those societies that welcome war as a source of glory than to those that see war with trepidation. Survival comes first, and that allows one's nation to preserve necessary characteristics of that society. War will afford plenty of opportunity for glory without anyone seeking it. In the end, a society that did not want the war might succeed because it can impose a workable peace. The Axis powers failed to no small extent because they were unable to achieve any workable peace; contrast the British and Americans. This Crisis Era seems to have a horrible virus that kills on the scale of a bungled war... and consider that the virus SARS-2 (COVID-19) is itself a demonized enemy in the same sense that Hitler, Tojo, and Mussolini were in America in early 1942. 

That is already 120,000 deaths in the United States alone. Whatever one's ideology one has every excuse for hating a horrific virus, much as Americans had cause for loathing Osama bin Laden. On its worst days COVID-19 killed as many Americans as did the horrors of 9/11.Most Americans were delighted with the gangland-style hit upon Osama bin Laden. The difference between Obama's hit upon bin Laden and the hit that Al Capone did upon his gangland rivals are that  (1) Obama isn't a gangster, but could learn even from Chicago gangsters if such fit his needs -- and America's need, and (2) sometimes a national leader must use the mailed fist under the velvet glove; one needs no mailed fist for dealing with Angela Merkel, but it is the only fit way of dealing with Osama bin Laden, and (3) that if some other medium-to-major power experiences such a terrorist attack and must strike similarly, then a similar gangland hit is precisely what we would expect. Not that anyone would commandeer jetliners as weapons of destruction and turn those against high-profile buildings in Beijing or Shanghai... not even Langley, Virginia (home of the Central Intelligence Agency) would be a safe haven.       

Are we truly sure that COVID-19 is fading? Some people are cautious enough to still be wearing masks into public places. In my case that allows me to enjoy the most normal life possible without feeling guilty. I can go to the store, gas station, doctor's office the teller window, or the fast-food take-out window. What can I not do? I still lack the confidence to go into a table-service restaurant. For the first time in several months I have gone to a bookstore and a thrift store. I look forward to getting a haircut. For the first time in a long time I will feel that I will be getting my money's worth in a hair cut. But I digress here.

What happens if we get a second wave? I see plenty of reckless people not wearing masks. May they get away with it without causing great harm.  

Crisis eras are dangerous times, and it is best that if one is on a trail and starts to see evidence of a bear or cougar that one turn back rather than investigating the reality of the bear or cougar. Mitigation of risk is an essential part of good leadership. 

2. We have not yet had a Silent President; indeed we have had a President two generations (OK, Biden is born in 1942 and Obama is born in 1961, but Obama is definitely not a Boomer). We got a taste of a mature Reactive characteristic of a post-Crisis era as President in Obama. We may need an Adaptive President to resolve some issues that we never resolved. It is unfortunate that we never had a TR-like President and probably won't for another forty years or so, and Biden may be too late to have the strongest effect.   

3. Donald Trump is a disaster. The only good emerging from his catastrophic Presidency is that we are discovering what we cannot tolerate in top leadership. People who may have fallen asleep while a high-school civics teacher droned on about the rule of law and of checks and balances are finding out exactly that -- the hard way. We also are learning the hard way that character matters greatly in political as well as commercial and cultural leadership. Trump trivializes the need for expertise, overrating his competence even in medicine.

Consider that the economic meltdown that started in 2007 was almost entirely a consequence of amoral decisions by economic leaders. 

As Donald Trump sees his chances of re-election fading through honest means, I can only imagine the ruthlessness of any method that he has of getting re-elected ... if he wants to be re-elected.

Joe Biden is definitely not Trump. That is good enough reason to support his Presidential bid. 

4. Joe Biden may be a one-term President for the right reasons.  Age. If he sees himself becoming less reliable due to mental or physical decay he may resign for reasons of health. Anyone past 75 holding a responsible position is operating on borrowed time. Biden seems to have done much right; he seems far fitter intellectually and physically than Trump. 

-- MY TREPIDATION --  


I know, I know, I know. The scariest thing about Joe Biden is that he is old enough that despite a long career in public office (he was a US Senator from age 30 to age 66, and then a Vice-President for eight years... and not a passive Veep) he has some superficial resemblance to President James Buchanan who despite his qualifications was not up to the rapid change in political reality in America. Buchanan is by far the worst of all Adaptive Presidents. Yes, things are moving rapidly in this Crisis. 

Could events overtake him? They have certainly overtaken Donald Trump.

You tend to divide the generational lines rather sharply. This does have it's rationale; it's what the authors did too. You do this with Biden, as you do with Obama. Many of us have recognized the astrological concept of "cusps" though, even without knowing that's where it comes from. The boundary lines may not be that sharp. Obama and Biden both have boomer/prophet qualities. Biden is born only just over a month prior to the S&H dividing line between Silent and Boomer. So is he really fully and entirely a Silent? Especially since he identified himself with the Boomer generation and acted as its spokesman in his earlier years?
(06-14-2020, 10:14 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-13-2020, 01:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-13-2020, 07:39 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 06:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-12-2020, 02:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]The ecological and global warming aspects CANNOT be left out of the blue agenda and the crisis resolution in this 4T. Science makes that clear. Solutions must be instituted in this 4T, or they will be too late. Even so, further push will be needed in the 2T and I agree with your prediction about it.

I strongly sympathize.  People are being disappointed in advance of Biden.  We don't know how he will balance the economy and the planet.  We don't know if his VP choice will step up.  Still, I can't see what other than ecology is on deck for the awakening.

Anyone?

Biden is a quintessential Silent.  He's all about pouring oil on troubled water, and a lot less about taking a stand.  Unfortunately, as desirable as his sympathetic position is, it mends the heart but has zero impact on actual problems. That said, you can't doubt that he's fully sincere.  Look at his personal history.  But he's not the right person to hold that job today.  Worse, it's looking more likely that his VP choice will be someone like him in focus: healing wounds, not building better institutions.  It will be a lost opportunity.

Again I remind you. You put too much stock in leaders. The leader will have to bend to the national will.

You assume there still is such a thing as national will.  I see a shattered system made up of groups of likeminded individuals, but few if any universal beliefs.  Coalescing that into a powerful whole is the work of leaders -- far too few in evidence at the moment.

It's true; it would be nice to have a good leader who could do this, and we don't seem to have one. I wonder if any leader could bring the factions on the left together into a focused alliance for this creative building.

The national will is divided between two nations, with some minority of folks not on either side. It will be up to the folks to see the connections, especially on our side. Meanwhile, even these groups will be separately pushing for change, and there will be some alliances. It can't be just the work of leaders, especially political leaders. FDR said to some labor leaders in the 1930s: "I agree with your cause; now go out and make me act on it." It's up to the people to push things forward, and then the leaders will follow. 

Even if the various causes are not seen by their advocates as part of a whole or an alliance; the leaders will be pushed on all fronts, because the problems won't go away, and people are rising up and not sitting back and giving up. The more-liberal candidates have been developing their item agenda list, as pushed by various groups and movements. Reversing climate change/new energy systems, equality and opportunity/shifting priorities, gun control, reforming the police, reclaiming democracy, nationally-effective health care for all. People are rising up about all these things and more. What unites these items, really, is to replace Reaganomics and the Southern Strategy with a people and community oriented agenda in a mixed economic system. We need Lincoln's prescription to be filled again, two saecula later. Government, not just "free enterprise," of, by and for ALL the people.

There is some evidence that Biden is being pushed. So, we'll see.
(06-12-2020, 08:13 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-11-2020, 09:13 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-11-2020, 08:35 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]Eric said "total cases", "much higher", and "any EU country"; your numbers aren't relevant to any of those claims.  Unlike Eric, though, I don't think you're not stupid enough to realize your post is irrelevant to the discussion.

It depends on whether you care about how effective the various plans are, or if you just care about making partisan points.  The US blew the chance to defend the borders looking at China and letting the virus getting hold in dense states via Europe and by lack of a national approach.  We definitely made mistakes, and it shows no matter if you look at absolute numbers or per million averages or however you arrange the statistics.

I care less about assigning the blame for mistakes already made than for the ones we are currently making.  We can revisit the first few months later when this is all past.  For now, the states relaxing isolation with their rate of infection still going up and their hospitals nearly at capacity are inviting catastrophe, and the federal response seems to be to walk away.  Ignoring the science and the problem may work in the short term against global warming, but the bug has a shorter incubation time.

Exactly!  Why should anyone think the US is doing even a mediocre job with this pandemic.  We have the two best infectious disease entities in the world (the CDC and Fort Detrick), yet we failed miserably at what we've always done best.  We need to admit that the GOP do-nothing model is an abject failure, and pretending otherwise just makes matters worse.  

We'll look back in 50 years, and wonder how we allowed a conspiracy theory spouting party to run roughshod over even the most communal of activities.  I hope the look-back will also include a narrative about our eventual success, but that narrative requires us to, you know, actually succeed!

There ya go!