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Howe and Strauss suggested that Silent men often piece together Civic-like (obviously GI!) and Idealist-like (obviously Boomer) traits, with mentions of prominent Silent in his book Generations in 1989. He named names: Clint Eastwood (GI toughness and Boom judgmentalism), Carl Sagan (GI rationality with Boomer culture), Merlin Olsen, and Alan Alda -- with Woody Allen as an example of a neurotic mess. Maybe a woman like Nancy Pelosi does such with feminine traits of female traits of the GI and Boom.

Could a Reactive like Obama do much the same? Did Lost men do such when it served their purpose?

Obama is too chilly a rationalist to be an Idealist. On the other hand he can be quite judgmental, and he is extremely erudite.

If you wonder about Trump -- he is weak on Idealist virtues (boorish, unprincipled, and unimaginative) and strong on Idealist vices (ruthlessness, selfishness, and arrogance).
(06-14-2020, 01:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.

This one depends on perspective.  S&H predicted the crisis always had more effect than was believed possible going in.  The Revolution saw us achieve total independence from Britain.  The Civil Was saw us ending slavery.  The Great Depression and World War II saw us with government regulation of the economy and a role as world policeman.  These were only dreams before the trigger.

Diminished expectations imply that people know that they will not get what they want -- or even be able to seek what they sought (easy money from speculative activity) in the 3T. People are best off to expect reduced income, higher prices, higher taxes, and less consumer choice in return for creating a better, more just, and more sustainable world. Many people will have to decide that soft work in a government or corporate bureaucracy will not be available -- so learn a trade or start a business and do some real good for Humanity if you don;t want to be a prole.   


Quote:I see the conflict between the old and new values as having been well defined by the unravelling debates.  The old values have or are taking major hits.  The Tea Party has made it difficult for establishment Republicans to get near the White House, and even that has lost its champion in Trump.  The protesters are giving the racist faction a black eye.  Those that believe they can ignore problems and live in a no science daydream of small government and low taxes are having to confront the virus.  If you count September 11 and Bush 43’s neocolonialism for teaching lessons learned, you have the Neo Cons discredited and the reluctance to put boots on the ground confirming the traditional desire to avoid war.

Indeed. The Tea Party has pushed conspiracy theories over workable solutions. In a 4T one needs to think outside the box that people constructed in a 3T. That box is rotting  or grinding into dust anyway.


Quote:So in terms of wiping out the old values, this crisis is not a dud.  It has the potential to succeed completely when the high tradition of stomping on the old values comes around.  The conservative ideas of supporting slaves, kings and avoiding foreign entanglements got wiped out.  The current set of old values looks similarly disastrous.

I didn't say that it was a dud. Its consequences may disappoint people and prove extremely inconvenient. It will change the world in ways in which it must change. It will solve some problems, but much of the problem is that we have been getting away with some very bad behavior:



   

Fifteen years old now as a video, but it catches part of the spirit of the 3T quite well. "Big Box Mart" is becoming a dreary grind. 


Quote:Now, I remain dubious of adding more ideas to the crisis.  The economy does look to end up in a mess.  Environmentalism may be left for the back burner until the new prophets find their voice.  That I cannot see yet.

The New Deal called its model of environmentalism "conservation". The economy will be a mess. As I see it there will be far fewer well-paid white-collar jobs. There will be need for teachers, nurses, cops, accountants, engineers, and research scientists as in usual times. Retailing seems likely to shrink... and I do not mean 'inventory shrinkage' in the sense of clothes shrinking from XL to M or inventory being filched to a greater extent. The model of retailers depending upon impulse purchases to make a profit will disappear. People will make rational choices involving budgeting, and the impulse purchases will no longer subsidize low prices. Maybe salesmanship will return as a part of retailing; getting people to pay full retail for what they used to get at a discount will be trickier -- and necessary -- to keep retail in operation. (But people happier with what they get because they are more convinced of its usefulness and applicability to its purpose will allow people to live better with less stuff). People will keep stuff longer because it was a better idea to purchase it in the first place... which will mean that less stuff ends up going into the landfill unless it wears out or is unfit to repair. And, yes, after the shopping malls go, "Big Box Mart" is next. 

Hey -- one cornerstone of environmentalism is that people consume less. Less material consumption might mean less resource depletion and fewer greenhouse gases. 

We could again be a nation of savers instead of spenders on binges on credit cards. Real prosperity is not needing status symbols. 

Even without a war we are going to have much damage from neglect to undo with "brownfield" construction.
(06-14-2020, 06:52 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 01:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.

This one depends on perspective.  S&H predicted the crisis always had more effect than was believed possible going in.  The Revolution saw us achieve total independence from Britain.  The Civil Was saw us ending slavery.  The Great Depression and World War II saw us with government regulation of the economy and a role as world policeman.  These were only dreams before the trigger.

Diminished expectations imply that people know that they will not get what they want -- or even be able to seek what they sought (easy money from speculative activity) in the 3T. People are best off to expect reduced income, higher prices, higher taxes, and less consumer choice in return for creating a better, more just, and more sustainable world. Many people will have to decide that soft work in a government or corporate bureaucracy will not be available -- so learn a trade or start a business and do some real good for Humanity if you don;t want to be a prole.   

If by expectations you mean selfish people want and expect the unraveling hedonism to go on forever, sure, you are going to get clipped. If you hope the old values to be destroyed, that is another thing.
(06-14-2020, 07:13 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 06:52 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 01:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(06-14-2020, 10:18 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]It is better that people have diminished expectations during a Crisis Era.

This one depends on perspective.  S&H predicted the crisis always had more effect than was believed possible going in.  The Revolution saw us achieve total independence from Britain.  The Civil Was saw us ending slavery.  The Great Depression and World War II saw us with government regulation of the economy and a role as world policeman.  These were only dreams before the trigger.

Diminished expectations imply that people know that they will not get what they want -- or even be able to seek what they sought (easy money from speculative activity) in the 3T. People are best off to expect reduced income, higher prices, higher taxes, and less consumer choice in return for creating a better, more just, and more sustainable world. Many people will have to decide that soft work in a government or corporate bureaucracy will not be available -- so learn a trade or start a business and do some real good for Humanity if you don;t want to be a prole.   

If by expectations you mean selfish people want and expect the unraveling hedonism to go on forever, sure, you are going to get clipped.  If you hope the old values to be destroyed, that is another thing.

People who act as if they can get away with 3T values during the COVID-19 plague are most likely to contract and spread the Plague of 2020. That will shape American values for some time. How do we know that there isn't another nasty, dangerous respiratory virus out there or in the wings?

In a 4T, people find that hedonistic behavior is either futile or self-destructive. 

Old values will not be destroyed. Those of an earlier time may revive (OK, racism and homophobia are moribund); values of the Crisis Era are forming now, as in all likelihood is the political norm that gets us through what we now have. I also expect rapid change in values and institutional practice, only for those to solidify. For a physical analogue, concrete goes from a semi-solid, highly-shapable mass to a rigid solid as it sets. 

I expect an austere 1T in style. I expect d**t to become as filthy a word as f**k in many minds. Conspicuous consumption will give way to saving, with pay-as-you-go the norm in personal and government spending. I expect the common man to be urged to avoid securities markets in favor of savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and life-insurance policies. Investors will have plenty in which to invest, but prudent investment will (unlike the case of the last 3T) drive out high-risk investments. Bankers and insurance companies will be charged with stewardship of other people's money. Glitz will fool nobody except as an expression of a time to be avoided (the 3T that got us into deep trouble).

Millennial adults will establish the practical values by which society operates. They are much more rational and egalitarian than the Silent, Boomers, and X. To be sure I expect Boomers to follow the pattern of the Silent, who inherited the practice from GI's, of remaining intellectually and physically active into retirement age... but the ones still shaping the culture will be more 'me-too' in endorsing a more rational and egalitarian world. Maybe some of us will suggest cultural archaism as a norm in the search for philosophical meaning in life. X will find the new ways fitting their pragmatism, if not shattered dreams of hedonism.

Instead of running away from the emptiness and boredom of life we are going to find the compulsion to make life richer and more satisfying right where we are. I expect a reversal of the trend to increasing concentration of economic opportunity in a few regions. So if you are stuck in a thoroughly-awful place now, like Youngstown, Ohio or Flint, Michigan... then make the place better!  People who have learned to make the best of bad situations -- and that is the greatest of survival skills -- will be particularly adept at such.
The boost in virus numbers expected with the start of the protests are starting to come in.  Up to this point the Happy Talk faction has tried to open up while the curves are still going up. The curves have not exploded up until now, but from here on in, well, boom.  I don't know how long before the Happy Talkers confront reality, but the next few weeks are going to be crucial.

Meanwhile, Trump is madly going around scheduling campaign rallies with minimum isolation and precautions.  He seems to be going all in for ignoring the problem.  The virus is too dumb to write him a thank you card. We will see just how strong either stupidity or really strong world views are. Generally I argue for really strong world views, but this time I can't work myself up for the argument.

Is ignoring a pandemic an impeachable offense?  I guess only if the Senate Republicans wake up.
(06-16-2020, 11:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The boost in virus numbers expected with the start of the protests are starting to come in.  Up to this point the Happy Talk faction has tried to open up while the curves are still going up. The curves have not exploded up until now, but from here on in, well, boom.  I don't know how long before the Happy Talkers confront reality, but the next few weeks are going to be crucial.

Meanwhile, Trump is madly going around scheduling campaign rallies with minimum isolation and precautions.  He seems to be going all in for ignoring the problem.  The virus is too dumb to write him a thank you card.  We will see just how strong either stupidity or really strong world views are.  Generally I argue for really strong world views, but this time I can't work myself up for the argument.

Is ignoring a pandemic an impeachable offense?  I guess only if the Senate Republicans wake up.

At this point, the appropriate consequences will be continued low approval numbers and a loss in November.
(06-16-2020, 11:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The boost in virus numbers expected with the start of the protests are starting to come in.  Up to this point the Happy Talk faction has tried to open up while the curves are still going up. The curves have not exploded up until now, but from here on in, well, boom.  I don't know how long before the Happy Talkers confront reality, but the next few weeks are going to be crucial.

I have yet to feel confident to dine in a sit-down restaurant or take shared transit anywhere. I still find it appalling that people fail to wear masks in public. 

Quote:Meanwhile, Trump is madly going around scheduling campaign rallies with minimum isolation and precautions.  He seems to be going all in for ignoring the problem.  The virus is too dumb to write him a thank you card.  We will see just how strong either stupidity or really strong world views are.  Generally I argue for really strong world views, but this time I can't work myself up for the argument.

This happens with a callous person with great power yet an infantile morality. Contrast a flawed person who tells the truth at its hardest when such is appropriate:





It may be rough... but dying of COVID-19 sounds nasty. Most of us have been spared seeing it, which is much in contrast to the highly-public scenes of the Black Death or the more intimate reality of the Great Influenza of a century ago. I have yet to see the details, but it is grisly enough, I suppose, that it isn't shown in the media.

Patton in no way trivialized the unpleasantness of warfare. But if you had to choose between someone like Patton as 'your' general to those German generals who got rewarded for turning soldiers into cannon fodder, which would you pick?  Either way it is the Germans who die. If your general is Patton (who had his flaws, and the great movie shows this)... at least you are not the Germans who at the luckiest are going to end up in American POW camps.    

Quote:Is ignoring a pandemic an impeachable offense?  I guess only if the Senate Republicans wake up.


The pattern suggests that the electorate will impeach him on November 3! The Senate majority did not do its duty, and it will get to pay the price




Best to go directly to youtube to share and post a video.
The original uncensored version of the Patton speech is here. Warning, no Hollywood language censorship.
[Image: 5c4304ffe01cca7f8fe46de2b4b40b136464d4c9...=600&h=473]

I took AIDS seriously enough to avoid unprotected sex. If I hadn't been cautious about such I would be dead. I had the sort of hair (strawberry blond over dark roots) that women killed for -- without trying. 

I wear a mask anywhere in which public contact is reliably possible even if I have been told that the plague is declining. Well, it isn't declining fast enough!
(06-17-2020, 12:28 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]The original uncensored version of the Patton speech is here.  Warning, no Hollywood language censorship.

It looks like George C Scott added the best line, the first one in the video.

Actually, apparently, he said it in Africa and in England on other occasions, or this quote just missed it; and it was based on earlier sayings. The version Bob is quoting also did not include the warm words to his troops that Scott ended the speech with in the movie. So the movie version is probably based mainly on the version Bob quoted, plus elements from others of his speeches.

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/04/24/war/

The relationship to Floyd R Turbo is clear too.
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid54179
CNN reports that US stockpile stuck with 63 million doses of hydroxychloroquine

The original study showing much risk and little if no reward have been confirmed.  Meanwhile, the US stockpile of stuff that is supposed to fight COVUS 19 is full of stuff we can't use.
(06-17-2020, 10:04 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]CNN reports that US stockpile stuck with 63 million doses of hydroxychloroquine

The original study showing much risk and little if no reward have been confirmed.  Meanwhile, the US stockpile of stuff that is supposed to fight COVUS 19 is full of stuff we can't use.

Send it to Tulsa.  Apparently, it's almost perfect there.
Texas is starting to step up enforcement as well.  CNN reports that a few bars who were not enforcing the rules for isolation and social distancing are losing their liquor licenses.  This comes on the tail of California requiring the use of masks in public.  The progress in putting one's own convenience behind the good of the community is continuing.
(06-22-2020, 03:22 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Texas is starting to step up enforcement as well.  CNN reports that a few bars who were not enforcing the rules for isolation and social distancing are losing their liquor licenses.  This comes on the tail of California requiring the use of masks in public.  The progress in putting one's own convenience behind the good of the community is continuing.

That's good, but the cat is out of the bag, and now nothing short of another lockdown will curb the virus in the Trump USA. Even a vaccine won't, because 30% of the American people believe in the anti-vax conspiracy theory. We are infected-- until we vote for the remedy, meaning putting in Biden and I hope Susan Rice as VP who has experience dealing with this issue. It will take new leadership to distribute the virus too, because Trump won't do that either. At least then, if the vaccine is effective, those willing will probably be safe.
Rural southern Michigan has a problem with masks. People might be proud that they are not in "Sodom and Gomorrah" (a/k/a Detroit), but just because Detroit is a hundred miles away does not mean that its problem can't reach one.

No, I am not talking about racist concerns of some people here. There are actually are black families from Detroit moving to rural Michigan to exchange the horrid schools of Greater Detroit for the good ones of rural Michigan so that their kids have a chance in life. More power to them, I say! No -- it is COVID-19, which ravaged Greater Detroit not so long ago.

I got some Chinese takeout, something that I miss (Mongolian beef)... and what do you know? Customers weren't wearing masks. I did.

People need to be ticketed for not wearing masks in places in which COVID-19 could spread. Masks give us more freedom -- not less.
Among top 50 nations in # of cases, these 25 countries had the most new cases reported yesterday:
Brazil 40,131
USA 36,015
India 15,665
Russia 7,425
Mexico 4,577
South Africa 4,518
Pakistan 3,946
Chile 3,804
Bangladesh 3,412
Peru 3,363
Saudi Arabia 3,139
Iran 2,445
Colombia 2,389
Argentina 2,272
Iraq 1,826
Egypt 1,332
Oman 1.318
Turkey 1,268
Qatar 1.176
Philippines 1,143
Bolivia 1,105
Indonesia 1051
Ecuador 1,003
UK 921
Ukraine 833

These countries had the most new deaths reported yesterday:
Brazil 1,364
USA 863
Mexico 759
India 468
UK 280
Peru 181
Russia 153
Iran 121
South Africa 111
Pakistan 105
Colombia 94
Egypt 87
Iraq 84
France 57
Ecuador 51
Bolivia 47
Bangladesh 43
Sweden 39
Saudi Arabia 39
Indonesia 35
Argentina 35
US states with most new cases reported yesterday:
California 6,503
Texas 5,370
Arizona 3,593
Florida 3,286
Georgia 1,750
Louisiana 1,474
South Carolina 912
North Carolina 835
Tennessee 750
New York 664
Alabama 643
Pennsylvania 616
Mississippi 611
Illinois 601
Arkansas 595
Ohio 575
New Jersey 570
Virginia 529
Washington 507

US states with most deaths reported yesterday:
Delaware 69
California 68
Florida 64
New Jersey 51
New York 46
Pennsylvania 42
Arizona 42
Georgia 40
Illinois 36
Texas 33
Ohio 31
The AP is among many in the blue media calling out the Happy Talk states for contributing to the spread of the virus.

‘Coming back and biting us’: US sees virus resurgence