Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(03-19-2020, 06:07 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 11:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 11:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 10:13 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: [ -> ]Might be fun to reverse course and speculate on what the reaction to the energy crisis and gasoline shortages might be if they occurred in the present time frame.

We'd be bombing and invading oil producers and taking over the oil, without a doubt.

Would we?  We have learned better than to put boots on the ground in the Middle East.  The Middle East is Asia, almost, sorta, and they might have figured out that starting a land war in Asia is a bad idea.  We are working internal supplies of oil, so how would the energy crisis come about?  Early on in this Crisis we came up with an alternative solution to the energy problem.  While they might not put it that way, changing a culture by force is no longer seen as easy.

The failed regeneracy of Bush 43's wars did produce some important lessons learned after all.

But the coronavirus is accomplishing that very notion of changing a culture by force.  Am curious to what you mean in closing paragraph.

Mostly it is already covered above.  Bush 43 gave 3 primary reasons for his wars, two loudly spoken for propaganda, and the one unwritten.  Supposedly at first he was after WMDs, but it later turned out that this was smoke.  Later he was out to impose the supposedly superior Western culture, only to have locals cling to the past Agricultural Age religious values.

Unspoken was neocolonialism, the war for oil.  That was what he was really doing, but not speaking of.  The world recognized and stonewalled it.

I guess what I meant by changing a culture by force is military force.  The North can win the US Civil War, but can you defeat Jim Crow that way?  In World War II the Allies can defeat the Axis, but did they convince all autocratic forces to avoid aggression?  To some degree victory in a Crisis does create some push back.  Slavery was abolished.  Germany, Italy and Japan did reject war of aggression.  It does not go far enough or convince everybody.  There was still a need for example for the Civil Rights movement and the Domino Theory.

With the Coronavirus, we are fighting nature run amok rather than a military force.

(03-20-2020, 11:00 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-19-2020, 06:07 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 11:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 11:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 10:13 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: [ -> ]Might be fun to reverse course and speculate on what the reaction to the energy crisis and gasoline shortages might be if they occurred in the present time frame.

We'd be bombing and invading oil producers and taking over the oil, without a doubt.

Would we?  We have learned better than to put boots on the ground in the Middle East.  The Middle East is Asia, almost, sorta, and they might have figured out that starting a land war in Asia is a bad idea.  We are working internal supplies of oil, so how would the energy crisis come about?  Early on in this Crisis we came up with an alternative solution to the energy problem.  While they might not put it that way, changing a culture by force is no longer seen as easy.

The failed regeneracy of Bush 43's wars did produce some important lessons learned after all.

But the coronavirus is accomplishing that very notion of changing a culture by force.  Am curious to what you mean in closing paragraph.

Mostly it is already covered above.  Bush 43 gave 3 primary reasons for his wars, two loudly spoken for propaganda, and the one unwritten.  Supposedly at first he was after WMDs, but it later turned out that this was smoke.  Later he was out to impose the supposedly superior Western culture, only to have locals cling to the past Agricultural Age religious values.

Unspoken was neocolonialism, the war for oil.  That was what he was really doing, but not speaking of.  The world recognized and stonewalled it.

I guess what I meant by changing a culture by force is military force.  The North can win the US Civil War, but can you defeat Jim Crow that way?  In World War II the Allies can defeat the Axis, but did they convince all autocratic forces to avoid aggression?  To some degree victory in a Crisis does create some push back.  Slavery was abolished.  Germany, Italy and Japan did reject war of aggression.  It does not go far enough or convince everybody.  There was still a need for example for the Civil Rights movement and the Domino Theory.

With the Coronavirus, we are fighting nature run amok rather than a military force.

This time around germ warfare in on its way to changing the culture by force. In the Fourth Turning book the authors mentioned that come the 4T elder Boomers as leaders would demand many sacrifices out of younger gens of a nature they would not have tolerated during their own youth. We are seeing that play out now.

CORVID-19 can leave people with organ impairment.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/heal...s-may-have

Comment:

Take it seriously. Reduced lung capacity can reduce your job performance.

(03-25-2020, 03:00 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]CORVID-19 can leave people with organ impairment.  

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/heal...s-may-have

Comment:

Take it seriously. Reduced lung capacity can reduce your job performance.

This is the rub. COVID-19 can be so mild it passes unnoticed, mild then more severe, acute from the beginning or something else entirely.  If we had a real testing regime, we might know how many infected but unaffected people are out there getting others deadly ill.  And yes, it can do serious harm, even to the young and healthy.

I live with my brother and his girlfriend, all of us in our sixties, the latter a survivor of breast cancer, so I assume that she is at risk. I had some symptoms of the flu, and just to be safe after I did some unexpected coughing I made an appointment. It turns out to be an allergy. Except that CORVID-19 is in the air, I would simply let it slide. The test is simple.

I would feel terrible to expose anyone at risk to CORVID-19. I took my laptop and my cell phone along in case I had to go to isolation.

Here is a data visualization I found that it makes it plain that this pandemic is much more serious than other recent ones.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful...urce=share

Looks like it was produced using the same software the BBC used and Rachel Maddow borrowed for the which country responded best to the virus video.  Good package for making things clear in three dimensions.

(03-24-2020, 10:41 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-20-2020, 11:00 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-19-2020, 06:07 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 11:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 11:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]We'd be bombing and invading oil producers and taking over the oil, without a doubt.

Would we?  We have learned better than to put boots on the ground in the Middle East.  The Middle East is Asia, almost, sorta, and they might have figured out that starting a land war in Asia is a bad idea.  We are working internal supplies of oil, so how would the energy crisis come about?  Early on in this Crisis we came up with an alternative solution to the energy problem.  While they might not put it that way, changing a culture by force is no longer seen as easy.

The failed regeneracy of Bush 43's wars did produce some important lessons learned after all.

But the coronavirus is accomplishing that very notion of changing a culture by force.  Am curious to what you mean in closing paragraph.

Mostly it is already covered above.  Bush 43 gave 3 primary reasons for his wars, two loudly spoken for propaganda, and the one unwritten.  Supposedly at first he was after WMDs, but it later turned out that this was smoke.  Later he was out to impose the supposedly superior Western culture, only to have locals cling to the past Agricultural Age religious values.

Unspoken was neocolonialism, the war for oil.  That was what he was really doing, but not speaking of.  The world recognized and stonewalled it.

I guess what I meant by changing a culture by force is military force.  The North can win the US Civil War, but can you defeat Jim Crow that way?  In World War II the Allies can defeat the Axis, but did they convince all autocratic forces to avoid aggression?  To some degree victory in a Crisis does create some push back.  Slavery was abolished.  Germany, Italy and Japan did reject war of aggression.  It does not go far enough or convince everybody.  There was still a need for example for the Civil Rights movement and the Domino Theory.

With the Coronavirus, we are fighting nature run amok rather than a military force.

This time around germ warfare in on its way to changing the culture by force. In the Fourth Turning book the authors mentioned that come the 4T elder Boomers as leaders would demand many sacrifices out of younger gens of a nature they would not have tolerated during their own youth. We are seeing that play out now.

The boomer leaders should be going much further in this. And they should have supported Sanders instead of settling for Biden.

Again, germ warfare has nothing to do with this. Boomers and all of us need to clear away the clutter of conspiracy theory. Don't hold onto it.

Here's a good breakdown of why the COVID-19 response is different, for practical reasons:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why...swine-flu/

Originally posted in Leip's Election Atlas. Not to be confused wit other polling maps that I have elsewhere in this thread because it does not compare quite the same things -- yet.

Approval only of the President's performance on COVID-19 -- not disapproval. Note the difference in the legend. I am treating anything from 46 to 49% approval as effectively a tie. To be sure, COVID-19 is the focus of most Americans' concerns these days as a clear and present danger to ourselves, or at least to people for whom we care. COVID-19 is about as dangerous as any war for which there is conscription, and I assure you -- I am doing everything possible to dodge its draft! This time, draft-dodging is without qualification a noble act!  



Trump approval:

60% or higher approval
55-59%
50-54%
46-49% (white)
43-45%
41 or 42%
40% or lower

Trump's "best" state is Wyoming, where he gets 59% approval on his handling of COVID-19. As you can see. sixteen states give Trump 40% or lower approval on his handling of COVID-19, which shows Trump in an unflattering light. To be sure, these states have usually been trouble for Trump for other things, but because COVID-19 is the equivalent of war as a clear and present danger, it is the current focus of political life.     

Note that all Governors fare better than Trump in approval in their states (I take that the number for the District of Columbia is for the mayor or the majority of the city council, either Democratic.  



Approval of State governors

Red  - Democrats;  Blue -  Republicans

The saturation is the tens digit of approval (first digit of an approval number. Thus Kristi Noem (R, SD)  gets a saturation of "4" in the color red for 49% approval and David Ige (D, HI) gets only 39% approval and blue at the saturation level of "3". Those two Governors get the worst approval ratings.     

You will notice that Governors of Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont are Republicans and that Governors of Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, and North Carolina are Democrats, and thus we have the anomalous colors for those states. 

Source:  http://www.kateto.net/COVID19%20CONSORTI...202020.pdf