03-30-2020, 08:59 AM
If Trump were at all competent he would have promised a much later time, but told people that if they did things right, then life would be back to normal earlier.
(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more. That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12). He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.
(03-30-2020, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ](03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more. That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12). He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.
Trump is taking the proverbial path of least resistance. He needs to be at least close to rational, or he won't get his ratings. So he goes with 100,000. If he's close, he'll claim he prevented a worse calamity. If he's lowballing it, he'll modify his estimate later and play the blame-game.
This is not about doing the right thing -- not for the Donald. It's all marketing.
(03-30-2020, 04:26 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ](03-30-2020, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ](03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more. That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12). He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.
Trump is taking the proverbial path of least resistance. He needs to be at least close to rational, or he won't get his ratings. So he goes with 100,000. If he's close, he'll claim he prevented a worse calamity. If he's lowballing it, he'll modify his estimate later and play the blame-game.
This is not about doing the right thing -- not for the Donald. It's all marketing.
Well. He needs to be close to rational by standards he is setting. I don't think the virus will let him set standards. I heard a high infection count in rural Louisiana. When the rural areas start getting hit hard, I suspect Trump will too.
(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more. That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12). He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.
(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ](03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more. That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12). He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.
New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures. You heard it here first. Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.
If they decline, we should remove the business closures. At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen. Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.
School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.
I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system. On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity. I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.
(03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ](03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more. That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12). He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.
1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures. You heard it here first. Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.
2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures. At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen. Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.
3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.
4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system. On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity. I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.
(03-31-2020, 10:49 PM)TheNomad Wrote: [ -> ]"America, our country, was not meant to be closed."
Wrong? No, it's correct. America is now on a bad foundation of The Economy..... one that is based on a model that simply does not exist in nature or "reality" at all. That model is UNENDING UPWARD TRAJECTORY. There is no such thing. NOTHING can exist in a perpetual state of RISE. It doesn't happen. That's called ALCHEMY. But now, since we are so dependent on that, Collective We cannot even pause for a month without a virtual threat to our entire way of life.
A month as opposed to a year.
(03-31-2020, 10:49 PM)TheNomad Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not going to be afraid to say this... I know who I am and what and WHO I do and do not enjoy. I find myself more "agreeing" with the president's bullshit than I feel comfortable with. This whole "by Easter" thing, while it was done wrongly (I feel this president does most everything wrong simply because he is evil and when a person is evil, that evil shows through even if you are trying to do good) I feel it was a goodwill message to America... "America, our country, was not meant to be closed." (Snip.)
Wrong? No, it's correct. America is now on a bad foundation of The Economy..... one that is based on a model that simply does not exist in nature or "reality" at all. That model is UNENDING UPWARD TRAJECTORY. There is no such thing. NOTHING can exist in a perpetual state of RISE. It doesn't happen. That's called ALCHEMY. But now, since we are so dependent on that, Collective We cannot even pause for a month without a virtual threat to our entire way of life.
A month as opposed to a year.
(04-01-2020, 02:43 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]There cannot be an unending upward trajectory. The hedonism of the Unraveling must end as the cycles progress.
Grow up. The crisis will end when we beat the bug. This may be a vaccine, a treatment, or learning to get the economy going while in isolation. These things are more likely to happen in a year than a month, slower if people are reluctant to work towards these goals.
This is precisely why Nomads cannot be in charge during the Crisis. They are incapable of grasping the ideals which provide an anchor for the country.
(04-01-2020, 10:29 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ](04-01-2020, 02:43 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]There cannot be an unending upward trajectory. The hedonism of the Unraveling must end as the cycles progress.
Grow up. The crisis will end when we beat the bug. This may be a vaccine, a treatment, or learning to get the economy going while in isolation. These things are more likely to happen in a year than a month, slower if people are reluctant to work towards these goals.
This is precisely why Nomads cannot be in charge during the Crisis. They are incapable of grasping the ideals which provide an anchor for the country.
Right as rain (though what that phrase means is a bit of mystery to me ).
Beginning with the election in November, we're either moving ahead or we're not. 99% of that is political this time, because we have the Orange One, and he's unusually disreputable and incompetent. Barring some unforeseen miracle, we'll have basic competence in 2021 at best. That's not a prescription for fundamental change, and that's what we need at this point. Strong showings in Congress can certainly be a net plus, but Legislatures don't lead -- they authorize and fund.
Trump has managed to do most of what Steve Bannon wanted: he decimated government headcount and reversed almost every progressive advance made in the last 40 years -- including some by other Republicans. I don't see Uncle Joe manhandling that back from the edge, and restoring the losses -- a minimum before real progress begins. So it's 2024 before movement can be expected, and the Republicans will be ready with their favorite argument that the government is doing too much and stealing all your money.
This may still go all the way to the next 2T.
(04-01-2020, 10:29 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ](04-01-2020, 02:43 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]There cannot be an unending upward trajectory. The hedonism of the Unraveling must end as the cycles progress.
Grow up. The crisis will end when we beat the bug. This may be a vaccine, a treatment, or learning to get the economy going while in isolation. These things are more likely to happen in a year than a month, slower if people are reluctant to work towards these goals.
This is precisely why Nomads cannot be in charge during the Crisis. They are incapable of grasping the ideals which provide an anchor for the country.
Right as rain (though what that phrase means is a bit of mystery to me ).
Beginning with the election in November, we're either moving ahead or we're not. 99% of that is political this time, because we have the Orange One, and he's unusually disreputable and incompetent. Barring some unforeseen miracle, we'll have basic competence in 2021 at best. That's not a prescription for fundamental change, and that's what we need at this point. Strong showings in Congress can certainly be a net plus, but Legislatures don't lead -- they authorize and fund.
Trump has managed to do most of what Steve Bannon wanted: he decimated government headcount and reversed almost every progressive advance made in the last 40 years -- including some by other Republicans. I don't see Uncle Joe manhandling that back from the edge, and restoring the losses -- a minimum before real progress begins. So it's 2024 before movement can be expected, and the Republicans will be ready with their favorite argument that the government is doing too much and stealing all your money.
This may still go all the way to the next 2T.
(03-31-2020, 11:32 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ](03-31-2020, 10:49 PM)TheNomad Wrote: [ -> ]"America, our country, was not meant to be closed."
Wrong? No, it's correct. America is now on a bad foundation of The Economy..... one that is based on a model that simply does not exist in nature or "reality" at all. That model is UNENDING UPWARD TRAJECTORY. There is no such thing. NOTHING can exist in a perpetual state of RISE. It doesn't happen. That's called ALCHEMY. But now, since we are so dependent on that, Collective We cannot even pause for a month without a virtual threat to our entire way of life.
A month as opposed to a year.
Nawww. It's the my era , the age of Aquarius is cancelled. It's now the age of Ragnarök man. The era after the comet crosses. I see lots of karma coming due. There's financial bubbles that need popping. There's borders to be closed. There's the need for antifragil and autarky. (The factories are coming back, one way or another. There are tax shelter countries to be sanctioned. There are troops to bring back home. A lot of the world shall slip into anarchy. In short it's like it's always been. There's also climate change for a nice big fat cherry on top.
"As it was for our ancestors, so it shall be again for our decedents."
And this.
"You cannot send messages to TheNomad because you're on their ignore list."
Hey ppl. I'm on somebody's ignore list.
I can't give you that 100% thing because the software bans you.
(04-01-2020, 12:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Aquarius is the sign that rules the legislature. That's one reason I surmise that soon and for many years to come, our legislatures WILL in fact lead, much like they did in the French Revolution. When 2029 comes around, there's some chance we may even have a parliamentary system. At least the proposal will be made.
We need fundamental change. Progress will resume in the 2020s. But it will go all the way to the next 2T; America moves slowly.
(04-01-2020, 12:27 PM)sbarrera Wrote: [ -> ]Biden's better than Trump...but not much better. So I agree, barring some drastic occurrence we won't have a proper President until 2024.
(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ](03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ](03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more. That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12). He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.
1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures. You heard it here first. Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.
2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures. At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen. Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.
3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.
4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system. On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity. I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.
1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.
2. The US embraced Neoliberalism. That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first. IOW, US, get to the back of the line.
3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.
4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.
5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds. There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers. I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.
(04-01-2020, 12:58 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ](04-01-2020, 12:27 PM)sbarrera Wrote: [ -> ]Biden's better than Trump...but not much better. So I agree, barring some drastic occurrence we won't have a proper President until 2024.
Biden is a major improvement on the Orange One, but he's just wrong for the times. Having Silent leadership now is just crazy. With Nancy and Stenny in the House, the Silents will continue to reign there. The Senate is still an open question, but one half of the Congress isn't enough to get results … except for judges and a replacement for RBG, who must know by now that she has to bail if the opportunity arises.
Not much to feel great about.
(03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ](03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures. You heard it here first. Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.
2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures. At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen. Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.
3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.
4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system. On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity. I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.
1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.
2. The US embraced Neoliberalism. That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first. IOW, US, get to the back of the line.
3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.
4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.
5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds. There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers. I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.
(04-01-2020, 03:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ](03-31-2020, 01:19 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ](03-30-2020, 10:13 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: [ -> ]1. New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures. You heard it here first. Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.
2. If they decline, we should remove the business closures. At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen. Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.
3. School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.
4. I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system. On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity. I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.
1. Nope, ain't happening.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/0...h-28-2020/
Mid May perhaps, but not until then.
2. The US embraced Neoliberalism. That means the US doesn't make very many masks or any other medical stuff like drugs here either. We'll have to wait for China to get back online and let them use said drugs on their population first. IOW, US, get to the back of the line.
3. Children are notorious infection spreaders. So that's a stupid idea. Take it from a mumps carrier like me. When I was 5 , mom sorta thought I had the mumps and took me to the doc. Doc said no mumps, but in about 3 or 4 days all the kids in the neighborhood had them.
4. For now. New York now, rest of USA later. Covid-19 plays no politics or favorites. It just comes, like that comet from the East I told Eric about. I think a lot of things here in the US are going to break, bad.
5. I'm even putting money where my mouth is. I'm expecting a nice big fat bear market. Oh the frauds that will be exposed, the ponzi fracking going bust finally, a bunch of fallen angel corporate bonds. There's a lot of economic underbrush to clean up. Stuff like hedge funds, LBO doers, and derivative writers. I'll be OK if the Fed chokes on a bunch of money losing bonds as well. It's bad for its owners you know.
1. New cases in my state of Massachusetts appear to have peaked on Saturday, and have declined since. Nationally, new cases clearly departed downward from the previous exponential growth, also on Saturday or so, though they are not declining due to poor management in New York City and possibly other cases.
2. We don't need medical masks. Homemade masks are fine. Also, you can order Chinese masks on Amazon now, suitable for street use if not for medical use.
3. Children are notorious infection spreaders - absolutely. That's why school closures are needed, to cut down on massive infections through kids. I know that since schools were closed in my city, we went from having 3-4 people with colds at any given time to 0.
4. Massachusetts peaked; New York is clearly not peaking. Mismanagement can make things worse, as in New York and Italy; good management can help minimize the problems, like South Korea and Massachusetts.
5. The market was due for a correction anyway. I wouldn't bet on a crash yet, though the bailout bill makes things a lot worse.