Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(08-30-2018, 08:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-30-2018, 11:45 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]A pattern may be emerging.  White people with less than a college education are not especially prone to supporting reactionary politics -- if they are not Christian Protestant fundamentalists or evangelicals.

Quote:Mike Podhorzer, AFL-CIO’s political director, suggests that if we want to have a better understanding of white, non-college educated voters, we need to stop lumping them into one, catch-all category. What really distinguishes a Trump-supporting white voter from one who doesn’t isn’t education or even gender, it's whether or not that voter is evangelical.



Podhorzer’s analysis leads to two conclusions. First, stop assuming that all white, non-college voters are core Trump supporters. Trump’s base is evangelical white voters, regardless of education level. Second, white non-evangelical, non-college women are the ultimate swing voters.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...ite-voters

...I am guessing that the distinction in the polls between white voters with college degrees and white voters without college degrees is that Fundamentalist and Evangelical Christians are much less likely to attain college degrees. Fundamentalist and evangelical Christianity have strong currents of anti-intellectualism that secularism, mainline Protestantism, and Roman Catholicism do not have. Biblical literalism to the extent of promoting young-earth creationism is strongly anti-intellectual, and anti-intellectualism is not good for surviving four years of college without dropping out.

This data would also seem to support those of us on the new "commandments" thread who say that evangelicals are predominantly narrow-minded, prejudiced and/or stereotypically dogmatic and conservative.

This is still not true for all evangelicals, although it is much more true today than 50 or 100 years ago. You might not have guessed, for example, that ultra-liberal George McGovern, the idol of young hippie anti-war rebels like me in 1972, was evangelical.

We need remember that the word Fundamentalist is itself derived from the title of a set of books titled The Fundamentals (1915), a set of ninety essays expounding orthodox interpretations of Protestant theology and opposing modernist tendencies in higher criticism, such secular trends as socialism and evolution, and religious doctrines (Roman Catholicism, Mormonism, Christian Science, and Jehovah's Witnesses) that the essayists considered heretical or obsolete. Orthodoxy met conservatism, and they merged.

The rise of the Religious Right corresponds with church-shopping by ultra-conservatives who found new evangelical and fundamentalist churches as safe havens for their political reaction and cultural conservatism.

Three nationwide polls in reverse chronological order. Bear with me on that. Results are similar, but foci are dissimilar and relevant in their own rights  
 
Here's a Democratic pollster who usuaiiy gets R-leaning results for Republicans, if slightly so.

PPP for "LawWorks", and organization of which I have never heard. It sounds like a parody in a way of FreedomWorks, a right-wing organization.

OK, freedom is a travesty without the rule of law and without widespread acceptance of law and order as a virtue.

Automated telephone interviews, and 527 registered voters nationwide.  August 27-28, 2018.


The newest:[/url]

Quote:[url=http://lawworksaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Law-Works-PPP-August-Results.pdf]PPP, August 27-28, 572 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

The approval numbers among Democrats and Republicans are almost mirror images, but Trump is losing Independents badly, which is driving the topline numbers:

D: 15/84
R: 85/15 81/15
I: 36/62

And an unusual reverse gender gap in this one:

Women: 43/55
Men: 39/58

Another interesting question:

"Do you believe that a President who breaks the law or obstructs an investigation should be indicted while in office, or not?"

Overall: Yes 68 / No 21
D: 88/6
R: 39/36
I: 71/24

A majority of Independents and a plurality of Republicans believe that President Trump should not pardon Manafort.

I think that the perception that President Trump may be legally compromised is sinking in after the Cohen plea-bargain and the Manafort conviction.
A couple other national polls:

Quote:Investors' Business Daily. The title suggests a right-leaning constituency

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)


Devastating, as this is a media outlet for people surely leaning to the Right. This is corroboration.

At this point, should nothing really change between  now and November 2020, President Trump should end up with less than 45% of the popular vote. No presidential nominee has lost by such a margin in a binary election since Mondale lost to Reagan. (I am not counting the two elections involving Bill Clinton, as those involved a strong independent nominee).


IBD/TIPP Approval by region-

Rural: 45% (-15)
Suburban: 35% (-7)


https://www.investors.com/politics/trump...tipp-poll/

...Take a look at the voting map by counties in the last three Presidential elections, and you will notice huge swaths of counties with deep red (Republican) coloration.  The exceptions are places with large African-American, Hispanic, or First Peoples populations and such an oddity as New England. Republicans win the farm-and-ranch vote. At this level of approval, they will nearly break even in rural America. Republicans need 60% of the rural vote to offset majorities of 55% or so for Democrats in urban areas even in such states as South Dakota and Alabama.

Farmers and ranchers are usually easy wins for Republicans because they are the easiest people  for federal, state, and local taxing authorities to treat them as cash cows. But cut their commodity prices, and no tax cut can offset such a loss. The trade war can cut their revenue, and tariffs will make farming costs rise.

Don't ridicule farmers and ranchers as hicks living in the past. They are connected to the rest of the world, and that includes the consumer economy. They are often well educated.

...on Suburbia -- suburban America is becoming legitimately urban. Suburbia used to have some rural character with single-family houses with real lawns and with crowded highways leading only to and from the jobs in the city centers. Infrastructure costs were low when the roads, sewers, and schools were new. That is over. As apartment blocks replace bungalows from the post-WWII suburban boom, once-lightly-traveled suburban streets must be expanded at considerable cost. Seventy-year-old school buildings once the pride of Suburbia are often rotting edifices in need of replacement. Sewers and water lines have approached the end of their useful lives. Suburbia once had low maintenance costs and low taxes. That is over. The older suburbs are legitimately urban.    

....the conviction by a jury of Paul Manafort, the plea bargain by Michael Cohen, and the petty treatment of the late Senator John McCain may be kicking in. The trade wars may be hurtful to America, but that has yet to set in. Such things are not forgotten.  

   

With a slight modification I posted this elsewhere. That site still uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.
The oldest of the three polls -- Washington Post/ABC News
Trump at 36-60 approval in new Washington Post/ABC News poll

Quote:Overall, 60 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with 36 percent approving, according to the poll. This is only a slight shift from the last Post-ABC survey, in April, which measured Trump’s rating at 56 percent disapproval and 40 percent approval.

(deleted for repetitiveness)

I don't follow American politics too closely, apart from the sources which support Donald Trump. May I ask how the mid term elections will shape out.

I am going to be bold here, however I am predicting the Republicans will retain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

(09-02-2018, 07:28 PM)Teejay Wrote: [ -> ]I don't follow American politics too closely, apart from the sources which support Donald Trump. May I ask how the mid term elections will shape out.

I am going to be bold here, however I am predicting the Republicans will retain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

The consensus is that the Republicans will lose their current House of Representatives despite gerrymandering that has favored Republicans since 2012. Republicans created a structural advantage for themselves in Congressional districts, but misused it by electing extremists who ignore the sensibilities of near-majorities in their districts. In a district that leans Republican, it is wiser to elect someone more like Gerald Ford than like Jesse Helms -- and Republicans have elected people more like Jesse Helms than like Gerald Ford.

It is not so clear in the Senate, where Democrats have more Senate seats at risk because of the states in which they are Senators.

If you are not an American, it is easy to understand why you think that Trump is so strong a politician. He creates excitement among his base of support. But note well -- polls suggest that most Americans are tiring of him. If Americans were uncomfortable with Barack Obama for what he was, they are uncomfortable with Donald Trump for what he does. In our system, a President whose Party (especially if the Party is an ideological monolith as the Republican Party is today) has majority control of both Houses of Congress has nearly-dictatorial power except for control of the elections. If people get uncomfortable with the President, they can turn on Congressional majorities more easily and more quickly than they can defeat the incumbent President. Thus 1994 for Clinton, 2006 for Dubya, 2010 and 2016 for Obama, and quite possibly 2018 for Trump.

Note well: the consensus can be very wrong. Most people could not believe that Donald Trump could be elected President. and that Democrats would win big in the House of Representatives. Instead Trump became President through a quirk in the Electoral College (if you do not understand the Electoral College as the means of electing the President, you have missed the equivalent of the pons asinorum in geometry, the divide between those who "get it" and those who don't), and few of us could admit that Donald Trump could tap the resentment and bigotry thinly disguised behind sanctimony and sophistication.

Now many of us know a little more about the demographics and psychological dynamics of electoral behavior. Trump supporters are as enthusiastic as ever, but he seems not to get much 'squishy' support. People who focus on one thing (effectiveness of slogans and campaign themes, demographics, regional divides, and media coverage) miss the rest. Institutional power in America has a strong right-wing bias, but objective reality during the Trump Presidency has a liberal bias.

The high level of disapproval suggests a high level of distrust that a majority of Americans now have in the president and his closest allies in Congress. This is despite any economic collapse or any military or diplomatic blunder becoming an obvious disaster.

Corruption has been rare in the Presidency. Americans have consistently shown their disapproval by voting out incumbents in allegedly safe seats in Congress and the Senate. This will probably happen to Donald Trump in 2020.

The "Show-Me State" shows something about Trump prospects for re-election.

Missouri

All adults
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 46%

Registered voters
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 46%
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/electio...d_nn_tw_ma

The "44" does not stand for one of the most scenic stretches of Interstate highway in America.

I go with registered voters at this stage over 'adults' because registered voters have done something to show a willingness to vote. Missouri went 56-38 for Trump in 2016, so the state looks as if it will be in contest in 2020 as it was in 2008. The closest state that I can think of to Missouri in its Presidential politics as an analogue is Georgia. Missouri has a large share of fundamentalist or evangelical Christians outside of the two giant urban areas (St. Louis and Kansas City), portions of which are in Missouri, that combine to be about as politically important in Missouri as Atlanta is in Georgia. To win the state, Trump must win the vast majority of the Undecided. With the large number of fundamentalist and evangelical Christians (President Trump's one reliable demographic of voters, as he might be unable to rely upon the farm and ranch vote), such is obviously possible. Note well: opinions on whether the tariffs will hurt or help the American economy are split in Missouri. St. Louis is a one of the best analogues... to Detroit.

Missouri is far enough from the national average on the R side that it cannot determine whether Trump wins or loses a re-election bid. See also Indiana and Montana.

Focus on this poll is the Senate race involving Claire McCaskill D, inc), who is vulnerable. It is even, but the Democratic incumbent has an edge if third-Party alternatives are included.



55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.

My projection two years and two months before Election 2020:






Strong Democrat (10% or more) 247
Weak Democrat (5-9.99%) 81
Shaky Democrat (0-4.99%) 47
Shaky Trrimp (0-4.99%) 88
Weak Trump (5-9.99%) 40
Strong Trump (10% or more) 28

Rationale: Trump will be crushed in any state in which his approval is under 40% unless the state has gone for a Republican two or more times on the last five elections, in which case the state appears in medium red. This accounts for all states with atrocious polls for the President. I put Florida in pink because the ceiling for Democrats is traditionally rather low and North Carolina in pink because I have no really-recent polls and the state went for Obama, barely, in 2008.

Light blue is for states in which Republicans usually have huge advantages, but for which polling suggests "not this time". I saw a favorability poll out of Alaska that was awful for Trump, and at this stage it is hard to distinguish the difference between approval and favorability. If I see lots of polls with Trump approval between 45 and 49 in approval fluctuating from just below to just above disapproval I am coloring the state light blue. Negative polls for Trump in Louisiana and South Carolina are old and unreliable, and I don't trust them so I am going to color those states in light blue for now. Utah is in light blue because of the result that Evan McMullin got in 2016 there; I see Trump vulnerable there, especially if Democrats choose to not waste their Presidential votes on a Democratic nominee with no chance in favor of some Third Party conservative or if the LDS hierarchy endorses such a nominee. A Democrat has no chance of winning Utah.

That Trump is doing so badly in Georgia suggests that most Southern states are not going for him as strongly as they usually do. I've seen evidence of shaky numbers for Trump in the High Plains states except Oklahoma. And, yes -- Idaho is Idaho, Oklahoma is Oklahoma, West Virginia is West Virginia, and Wyoming is Wyoming -- and Kentucky is a judgment call on my part.

Some tangential polling data...but take a note of one of my concerns:

Americans back Democrats 52-38 for Congress in November.. even men back this.

Congressional approval: 18 approve, 72 disapprove.

Congress to be more of a check on the President (58), is it adequate (27), or to be less of a check (4)? Don't know -- 11

The news media:

Part of democracy 69
ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE 21
Neither 5
Don't know/no response 6

NOTE: If you wonder why I put that one phrase in screaming, dark-red, bolded all-capitals text, then please read on.

Serial mass-murderer and tyrant Josef Stalin used the phrase ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE as a description of his opponents and rivals to be eliminated. There must be something wrong with civics education that fails to tell Americans how that phrase came into existence and what purpose it served. That 21% of the American people can accept the President using such a phrase against those who rebuke his incompetence and dishonesty suggests that about 21% of Americans are vulnerable to a totalitarian ideology of the Right.

Anybody with a left-wing tendency might want to consider whether they would accept the phrase against a demagogue who tells them what they want to hear. At least 21% of the American public has shown with this answer that they would be comfortable with a totalitarian dictatorship so long as it spares them of having to see its dirty work.

I do not know whether President Trump knows the source of ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE, but I certainly do.

This phrase is to be distinguished from "Public Enemy" as used against such criminals as Dillinger, the Barrow-Parker gang, "Pretty Boy Floyd", and the like. Those people themselves were murderous marauders .

I am disgusted that fully 21% of Americans would be amenable to a right-wing dictator so long as the really-nasty stuff was done away from their more attention in K-12 education so that people find terms like "enemy of the people", "ten years without right of correspondence," (a usual euphemism for a death sentence in Stalin's Soviet Union, or "liquidation of *name the group of pariahs of the day). Those comprise but three monstrous uses of language, and those were in Stalin's nightmarish Soviet Union.

People need to learn the danger of a government that turns words into lies in their own right. Governments that butcher language have a tendency to butcher people.

Here is a model for predicting the 2020 Presidential election:


https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Here are the states (I assume that the District of Columbia was among those with negative net approval) in January 2017



-10 or higher net disapproval
-5 to -9
-1 to -4
neutral (white)
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 or higher net approval


Suffice to say -- the President started with much good will. Check the link and follow the instructions for numerical detail. This was fair warning that liberalism was in hibernation, if not moribund, in America.

If net approval is the vote in the net election, then Trump ends up with all but 72 electoral votes, ending up with a blowout win of 466-72.


Some states that President Trump had lost were as follows:

Illinois +9
New York +8
Virginia +8
New Mexico +17

His barest losses:

Michigan +7
Pennsylvania +10
Wisconsin +6
Florida +22

.....

Obviously, once one starts governing one will no longer be able to live on promises when things start going bad. Some people will be dissatisfied with what they get. Practically every successful President gets some loss from the goodwill that follows the election to the hard reality of being unable to achieve what one promises -- or people liking what is promised once they find out what it is. Not since perhaps Kennedy have we had a President whose approval is long higher than the vote for him. We will never know how well Kennedy would have done in the 1964 Presidential election.

By June 2017, net approval for President Trump is negative in every state that he lost except Virginia -- but he is also underwater in approval in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Things have been rather stable since then.

So here is what Morning Consult has for August 2018. In most of last month, Manafort was still on trial and Michael Cohen had yet to cop a plea bargain to get himself the best deal he could get (and hurt the legal position of the President), so as with even a road map it is already obsolete.




-10 or higher net disapproval
-5 to -9
-1 to -4
neutral (white)
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 or higher net approval

236 electoral votes (figuring that ME-02 is 10% more D than Maine at large) are presumably out of reach of the President, and 59 are outside of the margin of approval. This is a more charitable estimate to President Trump than what I have for him have based on 100-DIS(approval) or such a measure as an answer to the question "would you rather vote to re-elect Donald Trump or vote for someone else?", whichever is worse for him.

Do I like this analysis? Not really except for its timeliness and its offer of results every month for all states. Some of the results are simply counter-intuitive. It hardly makes sense that South Dakota and North Dakota are so different in polling of net approval, which can be right when political reality is changing (think of the Clinton collapse and GOP surge in 2016). Likewise I find it hard to believe that Nebraska and Florida have about the same net disapproval, or that Oklahoma has lower disapproval for Trump than a raft of other states.

And note that this excludes data for the time after some troublesome convictions or plea bargains by Trump associates. September polling results which follow the plea bargain of the President's personal attorney are more likely to coincide with my polling map.

All polls are estimates.

My usual model. Just take a look at Massachusetts, where Trump approval is at 22%, which is probably not far from where polling would have been in 1775 -- for King George III. My usual display of the polls.


Trump approvals in some Sun Belt states, per Ipsos:

Arizona: 45% approve-53% disapprove

California: 36%-63%

Florida: 47%-53%

Nevada: 49%-49%

Texas: 47%-53%

Source: http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org...-sun-belt/
[/quote]

Texas just as unfriendly to Trump as Florida? Nevada tied?

Arizona seems very consistent. What will it take for people to realize that this state will be a tough hold for Trump? Does someone need a neon sign flashing "YOU LOST US, DONALD TRUMP!"






55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat. 

E 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.

The result of the election would be

Clinton 47.83%
Trump 39.10%
Others 6.52%

by dividing the electorate by .92

The most similar election:

Ronald Reagan George Bush  43,903,230/ 50.75% 489

James Carter Walter Mondale 35,480,115/ 41.01%  49

John Anderson Patrick Lucey   5,719,850/  6.61%  0

Iowa has a poll out by Selzer for the Des Moines Register. , but the incumbent Republican Governor is underwater in approval and is behind her Democratic challenger. Selzer is excellent, and caught the Trump surge/Clinton collapse in Iowa that many thought was an outlier in 2016.

I'm showing this poll because I have much to connect to it. Iowa is close to the national average in R-D orientation. Data related to this poll likely says much about America as a whole.

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)


If anyone thinks that Iowa will be 'Safe R' in 2020, think again. Selzer is an excellent pollster, and got the rightward shift of Iowa in 2014 (Ernst in 2014, Trump in 2016) with uncanny accuracy. Selzer almost certainly catches the opposite trend, too.

From the source:

Quote:Seventeen percent of Iowans say they are convinced everything is normal and safe, 24 percent say they have some concerns and 16 percent say they have a lot of concerns. The largest share — 36 percent — say they are convinced what is happening is not normal and safe. Seven percent are unsure.

These numbers suggest a cause for the poor approval numbers of the President in Iowa. Add the numbers of people who think that things are normal and safe (17) to those who have some concerns (24) and you are close to the approval number (41 as opposed to 39 for approval); add the numbers of people who have a lot of concerns (16) to the number of people convinced that what is happening is neither normal nor safe (36) and you get a number (52) just short of the total number of those who disapprove.

34% think that America on the whole is on the right track, and 55% think that America is on the wrong track. Note that the 55% is close to total disapproval, with the 34% short of total approval. Ouch!

40% of Iowa's likely voters say that support for Donald Trump will make them less likely to vote for a political candidate, in contrast to 18% of them thinking such a cause to make them more likely to vote for a political candidate. Although 41% will not let them change their minds at all about a candidate (paraphrased from source) this disparity is likely to hurt Republicans who have any connection to Trump policies.

Finally, on the poll, favorability of Obama is at 58% (unfavorable at 38%) in contrast to that of Trump, for whom these numbers are practically inverted (41% and 56%, respectively). Favorability and approval ratings for the President have been close in most states, so I would conclude that the best way for Democrats to win Iowa's six electoral votes is to find a nominee as similar to Obama in key aspects of behavior, values, and personality. That will be tough.

I expect Joni Ernst and Donald Trump to be one-time wonders in Iowa who go down to electoral defeat together in 2020. Iowa looks to be in the tier of states that includes Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, states that barely voted for or against Trump. Recent polls suggest that those states could be drifting out of reach for him if they have not already done so.

Iowa is the definitive agribusiness state, and the trade war could cost Iowa farmers $2.2 billion in revenues.

Quote:Iowa is the nation's second-largest ag exporter, after California, exporting close to $11 billion in 2016, the report shows.

Iowa leads the nation in corn, soybean and pork exports.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/...368546002/

Farmers vote their pocketbooks. In most years that means that they vote Republican out of a concern for taxes, as farmers are easy to tax. But revenue losses hurt far more than any tax cuts that farmers can get. Tariffs will raise costs of farming. Lost farm revenues and higher costs will also hurt tax receipts of state and county governments. No tax cut can ever compensate for lost revenues or higher costs of production as large as those that Trump's trade war will impose.

...Oh, would I like to see polls for some states that have even more farmers as a share of the electorate. Or is it that Iowa agriculture implies lots of family farms with factory-like working conditions for farm workers who vote as if they were blue-collar workers of the 1930s?






55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.

Quote:Indiana: 48% approve-51% disapprove

Michigan: 39%-59%

Ohio: 45%-54%

Pennsylvania: 44%-56%

Wisconsin: 42%-58%

More details, including tables, crosstabs, and methodological information, for all five of these polls are available at:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...ll-Indiana

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...l-Michigan

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...-poll-Ohio

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...nnsylvania

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...-Wisconsin

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org...rost-belt/

Take a look at the poll from Indiana. Trump disapproval is now over 50% in what is typically one of the toughest states for a Democrat to win. How tough? It has gone only twice for a Democratic nominee for President since 1936. It could be that the fast-growing suburbs of Indianapolis that used to be reliably Republican are no longer so reliably Republican (see also a pattern emerging in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas). It could also be that rural voters are beginning to see the harm from the trade war and the huge tax increase known as tariffs.

Here's how I rate the Frost Belt states, the states and DC mostly north of the Potomac and Ohio rivers and Iowa, Minnesota, and eastern Nebraska for the Presidential election:

LEAN R NE-01, NE at large
TOSS-UP IN, ME-02, NE-02
TILT D NH, OH
LEAN D ME-AL, PA
SOLID D about everything else
SUPER-SOLID D DC MA MD NY









55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise
(Note: I have seen no poll asking that question for several weeks).




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.

Another PDF of a national poll. Morning Consult. Morning Consult has typically gotten results more favorable to Donald Trump...

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/up..._v1_HS.pdf

Right track/wrong track

Registered voters: 42% right track, 58% wrong track.

Trump supporters think that America is on the right track; others think that it is on the wrong track.

Overall approval of Trump among registered voters: 42-51

liberal 18-74
moderate 31-67
conservative 77-21

college degree 38-60
graduate degree 38-60

(Trump said that he loves low-information voters; he needs them!)

income under 50K 38-56
income 50K-100K 47-51
income 100K+ 47-51

(income under 50K is heavily minority)

Protestant 60-38
Catholic 43-55
other Christian 25-69
Jewish 25-74
Evangelical 59-38
non-Christian 25-69

(I find it hard to believe that Trump is doing so badly among Eastern Orthodox Christians. Must be more Ukrainian-Americans than I thought. Russian-Americans probably don't like the President's buddy-buddy relationship with Putin. Or could it be Mormons? They are fussy about freedom of religion. Protestants on the whole are rather conservative unless members of minority groups).


urban 31-64
suburban 39-56
rural 55-41

(weak for Republicans by historical standards in rural America, extremely weak for Republicans by historical standards in Suburbia -- it could be that Suburbia is losing its original semi-rural character and developing urban characteristics)

Clinton 16 6-91
Trump 16 88-10
others 16 20-72
did not vote 16 35-53

(It looks as if Trump has gained few supporters from those who voted for Clinton, Johnson, Stein, McMullen, etc. ... more people voted against than for Trump in 2016).


voted in 2014 43-54
non-vote 14 37-52

(A 2014-style electorate which gave the Republicans the Senate in 2014 disapproves of Trump!)

Obama 12 17-80
Romney 12 88-18
others 12 52-41

(a wash, except for the small number of voters for mostly-Right third parties. Obama won decisively, of course, so Obama-to-Trump and Romney-anti-Trump won't be much of a difference).

Northeast 41-56
Midwest 38-56
South 47-51
West 39-56

(So much for the chance of Trump to hold onto the Rust Belt or Pennsylvania!)

male 44-52
female 40-55

(Real men hate sexual or domestic violence against women!)

18-29 29-61
30-44 40-53
45-54 45-51
55-64 42-55
65+ 51-49

(Trump has an edge among the elderly -- barely. Otherwise he fails with all age groups).

Generation Z (18-21) 29-61
Millennial (22-37) 36-55
X (38-53) 42-53
Boom (54-72) 47-52

(Closer than usual to the definitions used by Howe and Strauss, which I will be showing in a Forum related to their theory)

Some college: 45-53
Bachelor's degree: 38-60
Post-graduate degree: 38-60

(is it any wonder that Donald Trump said "I love low-information voters"? He needs them!)

Income under 50K 38-56
Income 50K-100K 47-50
Income 100K or more 44-52

(Income seems to be a weak correlation to voting; until 2008 low income and Democratic voting heavily correlated; in 2008 income had a negative correlation with Democratic voting, and in 2012 it was practically neutral. Low income heavily reflects either membership in a minority group or rural residence).

Ethnicity

white 48-48
black 13-83
Latino 29-67
other 28-61

(Trump breaks even among whites in approval, and if approval and disapproval correlate strictly to voting, then Trump could not win even the "whitest" states. For example, if Trump should break even in Montana and South Dakota among whites, then the largest minority in those states, First Peoples, would be enough to decide an election against him).


More is included (302 pages altogether) and much of it relates to preferences in Congress and how people vote based on their priorities.

Just to remind you about farm incomes:



This has nothing to do with any meteorological catastrophes (droughts, cold waves, or storms).

Some polls from the week after the 2018 election, and (any surprise) some of my analysis:



CNN/SSRS, Nov. 8-12, 677 adults.  According to the text, the same respondents were interviewed the previous week.

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)[/quote]

I'm guessing that some undecided conservative voters from the week of the election have gotten cold feet about rejecting President Trump. But 56% disapproval indicates that some rather conservative people dislike the President. Nearly a majority 'strongly disapproves'. CNN suggests that opinions are nearly set with practically no wiggle room.

Quote:Monmouth, Nov. 9-12, 802 adults (change from August)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should
be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?

Re-elect Trump 36
Someone else 59

Raw approval and disapproval numbers aren't so hideous in this poll, and it is possible for an incumbent winning while facing 49% disapproval. Simply pick up everyone who does not disapprove, which explains Obama in 2012.

The approval and disapproval numbers for the President may not be that bad on the surface -- but these numbers suggest a six-year itch after two years, which is not the spot that Obama was in in 2010. In 2010, America was returning to conservative norms in political identity after Obama did everything that everyone thought he needed to do and did some things that the Right disliked.  Trump is in a worse spot. The news media hold him in contempt. His biggest achievement in foreign policy can implode at any moment. The President has too many scandals for anyone to handle except as a prosecutor or investigator. It is theoretically possible that President Trump could learn from his mistakes, but I have yet to see any evidence of such. He so far has been more adept at casting blame than at solving problems.  

The historical floor for a President getting re-elected in a binary election is about 40% (Hoover; Carter got 41% with  John Anderson getting 6% (which looks much like a part of the Democratic coalition that they would have in 1992 but never had before then).

"Someone else" probably does not mean the eventual Democratic nominee of 2020 to at least 4% of the electorate. I can't imagine any Democratic nominee for President getting more than 55% of the vote under any circumstances other than a severe recession or a botched war.

Quote:YouGov, Nov. 11-13, 1500 adults including 1284 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+4)

RV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Different pollster, and although the approval number is just short of his share of the popular vote that he got in 2016, the high level of disapproval suggests that 45% is close to his ceiling.

45% of the popular vote does not win. That is not enough with which to win his three barest wins in 2016 (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and probably not Iowa. It won't give him either of the four closest states to going for him in 2016 (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nevada). "Strongly disapprove" is already ahead of "approve (at any level)" in this poll. In a binary election, Trump would do about as badly as McCain in 2008 and Dukakis in 1992. The only way in which he could win is if the left-leaning vote splits, but it is more likely that someone sees an opening for a conservative opponent who can give conservatives an alternative to voting for the Democratic nominee, something that John Anderson did in 1980 .

The Democrat getting 51% of the popular vote, Trump getting 41%, and an Anderson-like analogue getting 7%?



 

That's what 1980 looked like. 51-41-7.

The military (from early October)

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s approval rating among active-duty military personnel has slipped over the last two years, leaving today’s troops evenly split over whether they’re happy with the commander in chief’s job performance, according to the results of a new Military Times poll of active-duty service members.

About 44 percent of troops had a favorable view of Trump’s presidency, the poll showed, compared to 43 percent who disapproved.
The results from the survey, conducted over the course of September and October, suggest a gradual decline in troops’ support of Trump since he was elected in fall 2016, when a similar Military Times poll showed that 46 percent of troops approved of Trump compared to 37 percent who disapproved. That nine-point margin of support now appears gone.During that same period, the number of neutral respondents has dwindled from almost 17 percent to about 13 percent, suggesting political polarization inside the military community has intensified in recent years.

 

Still, the latest survey shows that military service members are more supportive of the president than the American public at large, which, according to the most recent Gallup poll, approves of Trump at a rate of 43 percent compared to the 53 percent who disapprove.







Military Times, a publication largely about and for military personnel.

Quinnipiac (November 20)

Quote:American voters approve 53 - 42 percent of the way President Donald Trump is handling the economy, his highest grade ever on this issue, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

But voters disapprove 54 - 41 percent of the way President Trump is doing his job overall, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. The president gets negative grades for handling other areas:

   42 - 53 percent for his handling of foreign policy;
   41 - 56 percent for handling immigration issues;
   40 - 52 percent for handling gun policy;
   35 - 59 percent for handling race relations;
   31 - 51 percent for his response to the California wildfires.

....................................................................................................

American voters give President Trump low grades on most character traits:

   58 - 36 percent that he is not honest;
   55 - 42 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
   53 - 42 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
   63 - 32 percent that he is not level-headed;
   60 - 36 percent that he is a strong person;
   55 - 40 percent that he is intelligent;
   61 - 35 percent that he does not share voters' values.

Trump should release his tax returns publicly American voters say 59 - 32 percent. If he does not release his tax returns, Congress should investigate, voters say 51 - 44 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2587

The more things change, the more they stay the same in American public opinion.

Gallup poll

Quote:Approve 38 (-5)
Disapprove 60 (+7)

This is more in line with the 38/56 from two weeks ago.

The net -22 is Trump's worst since Feb. 18 (37/59) and the 60% disapproval equals his highest in Gallup's weekly survey, seen three times last year (35/60 each time).

So much for the idea that Americans are rallying behind the President after the midterm election.

Here's the good news for the President:

Quote:Year President House seats Senate seats Reelected?
1970 Nixon -12 +2 Yes
1978 Carter -15 -3 No
1982 Reagan -26 +1 Yes
1990 Bush         -8 -1 No
1994 Clinton -52 -8 Yes
2002 Bush         +8 +2 Yes
2010 Obama -63 -6 Yes
2018 Trump -39* +2* ???

2018 results do not include unresolved House races or results of special Senate election in Mississippi.

Source: American Presidency Project/POLITICO Elections

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/2...id-1012184

My comment:




If there is a silver lining to the cloud of huge losses in the 2028 midterm for Republicans, then it is in Senate gains (apparently nobody brought up such a topic as "legitimate rape" or something similarly stupid -- until the Mississippi run-off election) and, even more, that Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama had big losses in the House in the midterm following their first-time elections and then won handily.

On the other side, those three learned something after the defeats for their Parties. Reagan cooled down an overheated economy with a harsh deal for many (lower your expectations, young worker, and if you are unhappy with your dead-end job and its pay, then take a second low-pay, dead-end job to make ends meet, maybe buy yourself something with your employee discount in the shopping mall), put an end to the inflation of the 1970s, and won in a landslide. Clinton gave up on tax-and-spend government. Obama played the adult role against the Tea party pols -- and won.

Let's put it this way: one can get an effective Presidency, if not the one that one likes, if one has the skill set of Ronald Reagan and the temperament of Dwight Eisenhower.  The problem with that for Donald Trump is that that far better describes Barack Obama than it does himself!

If he learns something and moderates he might just win re-election. On the other side we have the pervasive, severe corruption and abuse of power that marks this Presidency like no other.

I am starting over with post-midterm polls. Note that I have approval if positive and 100 less disapproval (which I have typically thought President Trump's ceiling) if negative. This will probably be neater.



Approval number shown if positive, 100-DIS if negative.

Approval over 55%
Approval 50%  but under 55%
Approval positive (at least over 45% but under 50%)
Tie -- or approval and disapproval both under 45% (white)
Disapproval  under 50% but greater than approval
Disapproval 50%  but under 55%
Disapproval 55%  but under 60%
Disapproval 60% or higher (reddish black)  

States hard to see: MA 34



I apologize for the anticlimax applicable here. It's Massachusetts. Cue tuba fanfare and trombone, descending glissando from The Price I$ Right .

https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/f...1543468112

Trump approval 33, disapproval 66.

Remember -- Massachusetts can vote for the 'right' Republican. It voted twice for Reagan (skill set) and twice for Eisenhower (temperament). It once voted for Mitt Romney for Governor. It also has a Republican Governor now.

The Republican Governor Charlie Baker has 73% approval and 21% disapproval.  But 52% of those polled thought Baker very different from Trump.  That is about the same number that distinguishes Charlie Barker from the GOP as a whole.  He would still lose in the primary to Trump.

Massachusetts voters approve of their state legislature 57-32 (which is likely one of the best ratings in America)but only 17% approve of the current Congress and 75% disapprove (which is one of the harshest judgments of Congress, I suspect) .

University of Massachusetts at Amherst, November 7-14, registered voters.  

525 electoral votes to go!

You ought to see the word cloud about Trump in Massachusetts. "Great" figures large, but somehow 33% of the state's registered voters believe in him (which must be one of the lowest levels.

The second-largest word is "liar", with other words including "incompetent", "evil", "idiot", "despicable", "disgusting", "disaster", "stupid", "corrupt", and the two charmers "asshole" and "fascist".