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No go on Pete; his score is only 5-11. He'll never be president. Oh well, another one bites the dust Wink
(02-14-2019, 03:23 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]Any result that isn't overwhelming is a defeat for both sides.  The cross-party animosity is too brutal to allow anything more than stalemate unless one party or the other dominates in 2020.  I don't see the GOPpers pulling that off again, but I can't feel fully confident that the Dems can either.

On another topic, we have Peter Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend Indiana.  This guy is the real deal, but he's only 37 and starting from a mayor's slot is long pull to the Presidency.  On the plus side, he's whip smart: Harvard grad and Rhodes Scholar, Afghanistan veteran, speaks several languages, thinks on his feet and is courageous.  He's also gay, so he's a nearly perfect Millennial.  He has the best defense of the Green New Deal I've ever heard … period.

Yes, I don't see a breakthrough likely right after the 2020 election. I think the Dems could start to get the upper hand in the following 2 or 3 years. How that happens exactly depends on whether the Democrats nominate another loser. If so, I expect Trump will win and then self-destruct, in the 2022 midterms if not before. Impeachment and conviction seems likely in 2021, and if not, 6th year midterms are usually a tsunami against the party in power. Imagine one against Trump; it will be titanic.

If McAuliffe or Landrieu or one of the other 3 marginal candidates win, then they will still have a filibuster-proof senate to deal with, as well as the federal Courts, but perhaps the dems will do away with these blocks, and then Katy bar the door on both sides in the future. At least the blues will get the ball rolling on reform in that case quite early, or otherwise in 2023 or 2025, and the reds like Classic Xer will resist, maybe violently by 2025-- afraid their guns will be taken away and their taxes raised to support non-white "freeloaders."

We are not free of foreign troubles either. We bungled the mess in the Middle East, with the Iraq invasion and then the failure to support Syrian free rebels. Now another war in Kurdistan is just about inevitable at the end of 2020, and that will lead to more terrorist attacks and/or fear of same, the Islamic State reappearing, and gradual re-involvement, and the USA will be fully back into the mess again by 2025.
(02-14-2019, 04:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]<snip>

We are not free of foreign troubles either.


Quote:Oh but we could if we really wanted to.  Like any kindergarten kid learns, "keep your hands to yourself". Unfortunately we're infested with neocons who need to go back to kindergarten for not learning that.

We bungled the mess in the Middle East...,


Quote:You betcha!



with the Iraq invasion
Quote:Without a doubt. Now all Iraq are belong to Iran. Karma's a bitch.

and then the failure to support Syrian free rebels.


Quote:Now that's a rare success.


Now another war in Kurdistan is just about inevitable at the end of 2020,


Quote:So we're gonna go to war with a NATO partner, Turkey?

and that will lead to more terrorist attacks and/or fear of same,


Quote:Nope, if you don't trash folks' stuff, they'll stop getting pissed. I bet Americans would do terror on folks who bombed our country, right?


the Islamic State reappearing, and gradual re-involvement, and the USA will be fully back into the mess again by 2025.


Quote:Nope.  Guess what? I have a secret.  I have full faith and confidence that Assad , Hezbollah, and Russia will destroy IS and other terror groups in Syria.  After all, they have really good reasons to succeed. They've been doing a lot better than the US has so far in any event. However, the US may decide to engage in another clusterfuck and go back for more.

Now here is something very funny. I love it when neocons get exposed and raked over the coals.







Do you support an armed faction in Venezuela that engages in human rights violations?  Hahahahahah  Big Grin

OK Abrams, tell the truth. You're under oath after all. Answer her question and no shuffling.  Mrs. Omar has done 2 wonderful things. The above and calling out AIPAC.  I wish all those AIPAC whores would just lay off her. She spoke truth to power here. So Mrs. Omar, you go girl!


Now of course, the time is coming, that I agree , a war and big is coming.  So for the Millies, the proper outro is thus



A poll that shows some newcomers to the 2030 contest:

Emerson, Feb. 14-16, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

2020 matchups:

Biden 55, Trump 45

O'Rourke 53, Trump 47
Warren 53, Trump 47

Brown 52, Trump 48
Harris 52, Trump 48

Booker 51, Trump 49
Klobuchar 51, Trump 49
Sanders 51, Trump 49

53-41 against the President's desire for a delclaration of of emergency to build a border wall.
(02-14-2019, 09:49 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 04:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]<snip>

We are not free of foreign troubles either.


Quote:Oh but we could if we really wanted to.  Like any kindergarten kid learns, "keep your hands to yourself". Unfortunately we're infested with neocons who need to go back to kindergarten for not learning that.

We bungled the mess in the Middle East...,


Quote:You betcha!



with the Iraq invasion
Quote:Without a doubt. Now all Iraq are belong to Iran. Karma's a bitch.

and then the failure to support Syrian free rebels.


Quote:Now that's a rare success.


Now another war in Kurdistan is just about inevitable at the end of 2020,


Quote:So we're gonna go to war with a NATO partner, Turkey?

and that will lead to more terrorist attacks and/or fear of same,


Quote:Nope, if you don't trash folks' stuff, they'll stop getting pissed. I bet Americans would do terror on folks who bombed our country, right?


the Islamic State reappearing, and gradual re-involvement, and the USA will be fully back into the mess again by 2025.


Quote:Nope.  Guess what? I have a secret.  I have full faith and confidence that Assad , Hezbollah, and Russia will destroy IS and other terror groups in Syria.  After all, they have really good reasons to succeed. They've been doing a lot better than the US has so far in any event. However, the US may decide to engage in another clusterfuck and go back for more.


Do you support an armed faction in Venezuela that engages in human rights violations?  Hahahahahah  Big Grin

OK Abrams, tell the truth. You're under oath after all. Answer her question and no shuffling.  Mrs. Omar has done 2 wonderful things. The above and calling out AIPAC.  I wish all those AIPAC whores would just lay off her. She spoke truth to power here. So Mrs. Omar, you go girl!


Now of course, the time is coming, that I agree , a war and big is coming. 
The mechanics of just who is quoting whom is unclear, but I guess I can guess. 

Yeah, you go girl Mrs. Omar.

Abrams tell the truth? unlikely.

I don't have faith that those other tyrants will destroy the IS, because they have done nothing to destroy them so far. The US and the Kurds have done the work against the IS, not them. But the tyrants could well be involved in fights with the Kurds.

Unfortunately, partly (not wholly) because of US activities there, the middle east will keep exploding, especially starting in Dec.2020, and whether we like it or not, the neo-neocons will get us back into the mess by 2025 and engage in another clusterfuck.

We may have to go to war with NATO partner Turkey by then, I don't know. What it does look like is that in 2020-21, without US presence, that the Kurds, Assad, the IS, Turkey, Russia, and maybe Iraq and Iran, may all go to war starting in the Raqqa region. The USA won't directly engage until 2025, but will probably be involved behind the scenes. The Jupiter war cycle is usually decisive as to when the US gets involved in wars.

Failure to support the Syria free rebels was a failure, not a success. But, who knows what would have happened had it been done. At least the USA would have had a say, but then, I know you don't want that. The USA has screwed up a lot of times, and the Democrats are not always in charge to do things just a bit better. In our system, the neo-cons get back into office every 8 years, so who knows what would have happened.
(02-17-2019, 12:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Failure to support the Syria free rebels was a failure, not a success.

So you agree Obama's foreign policy was too passive?

Quote:In our system, the neo-cons get back into office every 8 years, so who knows what would have happened.

They have been out of office since 2009, so it's been 10 years. The American public (especially millennials) hates them and it's unlikely a neo-con candidate wins in 2020. Hillary lost because the Trumpkins convinced Americans that she is a neo-con. Now, if Trump decides to invade Venezuela, he will be seen as the neo-con.

Quote:the Islamic State reappearing, and gradual re-involvement, and the USA will be fully back into the mess again by 2025

IS may not reappear, but al-Qaeda is alive and well, and Syria might be ready to become another classical early 2000s-style Emirate.
I see much of the Islamic world undergoing the authoritarian way of much of the Christian world eighty years ago with fascism. By 1939 there was no democratic society in Europe except France, Switzerland, Luxemburg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the UK, and Ireland. An Orwellian nightmare, or worse, was the rule from Lisbon to Venice to Berlin to Moscow. By the summer of 1940 practically the whole of Europe lived in the shadow of the concentration camp. Was something wrong with Christendom?

This is a 4T, and institutions undergo the severest distress in such times. Just look at America, where we endure the greatest political distress since the Civil War. We need another FDR, and instead we have Donald Trump, a hollow narcissist who has no understanding of the character of our institutions.

We in America have economic elites who believe that all Americans rightly yield all to them, toiling to the extent that the human body is capable in return for the privilege of living to suffer another day. Those elites did not fully consolidate power, but they seem to dream of it -- or enough of them do. Those elites do not want a prosperous and independent middle class: they want a world of lords and peons. Nothing in their culture -- not even formal education -- can negate the worst tendencies possible in elites.

I look at narcissism and I see people who get away with it. Someone who does real work is invariably obliged to show some deferential humility toward customers and bosses. Nobody does humility for the fun of it; one does it for survival. Figure that someone who milks cows or sweeps away cow droppings in the dairy gets little opportunity to exercise any elevated sense of self. A retail sales clerk or a fast-food worker , just like a domestic servant, learns his place early. The narcissism that so pervades America's administrative elites was not so common among GI executives who had risen from the shop floor. Can you imagine someone doing so now?

We have our own problems to sort out in America. The Islamic world has bigger ones, including entrenched tyranny and government responsible to none but an elite. It is easy to see the likes of Moammar Qaddafi and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as diametric opposites just as people saw Nazis and Stalinists as diametric opposites. Such neglects the similarities of repression and brutality of totalitarian regimes. I am tempted to believe that so long as the economic elites have their view that the rest of Humanity (and not only Americans) has the duty to suffer as greatly as possible for as little as possible so that they get the privilege of surviving another day for much the same. That will not end well. This is a 4T, and vile institutions and practices either entrench themselves or implode.
Theoretically, America could have made the huge war Strauss & Howe thought possible for the Crisis since 9/11. But it didn't happen. I suspect the remaining Silents are doing what they're doing best: Postponing the inevitable.
(02-18-2019, 08:44 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-17-2019, 12:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Failure to support the Syria free rebels was a failure, not a success.

So you agree Obama's foreign policy was too passive?

In THIS case, yes.

Quote:
Quote:In our system, the neo-cons get back into office every 8 years, so who knows what would have happened.

They have been out of office since 2009, so it's been 10 years.

Bush 43 was the biggest neo-con administration, but Trump has brought them back. Bolton for example, and Pompeo. Trump's military build-up and withdrawal from the Iran Treaty, for example. His withdrawal from the missiles treaty with Russia. His threats to use nuclear weapons, for example. His appeals to militarism, for example: "we will win so much, you'll get sick of winning"

Neo-cons have been returning regularly every 8 years. So, that's something to take account of when considering a Democratic-presidential US involvement abroad. It may be taken over by a neo-con, and that's not to the good. Trump took over the war on the IS, and it's true it probably progressed faster after that, but at the cost of many more lives, including many Iraqi and Syrian pro-democracy and neutral civilians.

Quote: The American public (especially millennials) hates them and it's unlikely a neo-con candidate wins in 2020. Hillary lost because the Trumpkins convinced Americans that she is a neo-con. Now, if Trump decides to invade Venezuela, he will be seen as the neo-con.

Hillary lost for many reasons. That she was seen as a neo-con, which she wasn't, is well down the list. Trump is already seen as a partial neo-con, and certainly will be seen as such if he invades Venezuela, but he is not likely to do that.

Quote:
Quote:the Islamic State reappearing, and gradual re-involvement, and the USA will be fully back into the mess again by 2025

IS may not reappear, but al-Qaeda is alive and well, and Syria might be ready to become another classical early 2000s-style Emirate.

Syria is a classic genocidal dictatorship on the scale of Hitler and Stalin. Who knows what will become of it, or of the surrounding regimes and claimants. We'll see what happens after the war starts in Raqqa in Dec.2020, and the US gets involved directly by 2025.
(02-18-2019, 01:38 PM)Hintergrund Wrote: [ -> ]Theoretically, America could have made the huge war Strauss & Howe thought possible for the Crisis since 9/11. But it didn't happen. I suspect the remaining Silents are doing what they're doing best: Postponing the inevitable.

Let's hope that a major war is not on the horizon.  We've had several large wars since WW-II, but a war on that scale today could end civilization, not just a few governments.  Let's hope for at least that much sanity.
(02-14-2019, 09:49 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 04:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]<snip>

We are not free of foreign troubles either.


Quote:Oh but we could if we really wanted to.  Like any kindergarten kid learns, "keep your hands to yourself". Unfortunately we're infested with neocons who need to go back to kindergarten for not learning that.

We bungled the mess in the Middle East...,


Quote:You betcha!



with the Iraq invasion
Quote:Without a doubt. Now all Iraq are belong to Iran. Karma's a bitch.

and then the failure to support Syrian free rebels.


Quote:Now that's a rare success.


Now another war in Kurdistan is just about inevitable at the end of 2020,


Quote:So we're gonna go to war with a NATO partner, Turkey?

and that will lead to more terrorist attacks and/or fear of same,


Quote:Nope, if you don't trash folks' stuff, they'll stop getting pissed. I bet Americans would do terror on folks who bombed our country, right?


the Islamic State reappearing, and gradual re-involvement, and the USA will be fully back into the mess again by 2025.


Quote:Nope.  Guess what? I have a secret.  I have full faith and confidence that Assad , Hezbollah, and Russia will destroy IS and other terror groups in Syria.  After all, they have really good reasons to succeed. They've been doing a lot better than the US has so far in any event. However, the US may decide to engage in another clusterfuck and go back for more.

Now here is something very funny. I love it when neocons get exposed and raked over the coals.







Do you support an armed faction in Venezuela that engages in human rights violations?  Hahahahahah  Big Grin

OK Abrams, tell the truth. You're under oath after all. Answer her question and no shuffling.  Mrs. Omar has done 2 wonderful things. The above and calling out AIPAC.  I wish all those AIPAC whores would just lay off her. She spoke truth to power here. So Mrs. Omar, you go girl!


Now of course, the time is coming, that I agree , a war and big is coming.  So for the Millies, the proper outro is thus



 
I noticed the so-called neo con wasn't given a chance to respond or defend himself. So, I assume that you won't mind being placed in his position as we allow her to do that to you for whatever reason she wants. What's the difference between an AIPAC whore and a jihadist whore? I mean, their both all about the Benjamin's and both all about filling their war chests and funding proxy wars being fought abroad. What kind of an IDIOT blue would elect or support the views of a person like her without thinking and grant her the authority to speak for them, act for them and defend their interests?
(02-18-2019, 10:15 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 09:49 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 04:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]<snip>

We are not free of foreign troubles either.


Quote:Oh but we could if we really wanted to.  Like any kindergarten kid learns, "keep your hands to yourself". Unfortunately we're infested with neocons who need to go back to kindergarten for not learning that.

We bungled the mess in the Middle East...,


Quote:You betcha!



with the Iraq invasion
Quote:Without a doubt. Now all Iraq are belong to Iran. Karma's a bitch.

and then the failure to support Syrian free rebels.


Quote:Now that's a rare success.


Now another war in Kurdistan is just about inevitable at the end of 2020,


Quote:So we're gonna go to war with a NATO partner, Turkey?

and that will lead to more terrorist attacks and/or fear of same,


Quote:Nope, if you don't trash folks' stuff, they'll stop getting pissed. I bet Americans would do terror on folks who bombed our country, right?


the Islamic State reappearing, and gradual re-involvement, and the USA will be fully back into the mess again by 2025.


Quote:Nope.  Guess what? I have a secret.  I have full faith and confidence that Assad , Hezbollah, and Russia will destroy IS and other terror groups in Syria.  After all, they have really good reasons to succeed. They've been doing a lot better than the US has so far in any event. However, the US may decide to engage in another clusterfuck and go back for more.

Now here is something very funny. I love it when neocons get exposed and raked over the coals.







Do you support an armed faction in Venezuela that engages in human rights violations?  Hahahahahah  Big Grin

OK Abrams, tell the truth. You're under oath after all. Answer her question and no shuffling.  Mrs. Omar has done 2 wonderful things. The above and calling out AIPAC.  I wish all those AIPAC whores would just lay off her. She spoke truth to power here. So Mrs. Omar, you go girl!


Now of course, the time is coming, that I agree , a war and big is coming.  So for the Millies, the proper outro is thus


What's the difference between an AIPAC whore and a jihadist whore? I mean, their both all about the Benjamin's and both all about filling up war chests and funding proxy wars being fought abroad. What kind of IDIOT blue elected a person like her to speak for them or represent their interests or the views of their American district? 

AIPAC is to Judaism as jihadis are to Islam, so much is true. Ms. Omar is a Muslim, but is certainly not a Jihadi. My guess is that the blues who elected her are fed up with stupid Neocons like Mr. Walrus [Bolton] and Mr. land whale [Pompeo]. I'm fine with her myself.  Let's cut out all of that waste , fraud, and abuse in the "defense" budget and spend on something useful like single payer health care. It's the Neocons, not Ms. Omar who are all about blowing money on stupid wars of choice. Ms. Omar shredded that Neocon, Abrams about screwing around in Venezuela.  Here's another idea.  How about the US stopping messing around in Latin America?  Neocons are the primary engine of illegal immigration.  Exiling Neocons will work a lot better than a wall in solving the illegal immigration problem.  Looks like Trump and his Neocon buddies are the ultimate dotards here.








Antiwar Blues = Sunshine

Neocons = Sorrow, man. Cool
(02-18-2019, 05:47 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2019, 01:38 PM)Hintergrund Wrote: [ -> ]Theoretically, America could have made the huge war Strauss & Howe thought possible for the Crisis since 9/11. But it didn't happen. I suspect the remaining Silents are doing what they're doing best: Postponing the inevitable.

Let's hope that a major war is not on the horizon.  We've had several large wars since WW-II, but a war on that scale today could end civilization, not just a few governments.  Let's hope for at least that much sanity.
It wouldn't take a war to have the same impact today.
(02-18-2019, 11:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2019, 05:47 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2019, 01:38 PM)Hintergrund Wrote: [ -> ]Theoretically, America could have made the huge war Strauss & Howe thought possible for the Crisis since 9/11. But it didn't happen. I suspect the remaining Silents are doing what they're doing best: Postponing the inevitable.

Let's hope that a major war is not on the horizon.  We've had several large wars since WW-II, but a war on that scale today could end civilization, not just a few governments.  Let's hope for at least that much sanity.
It wouldn't take a war to have the same impact today.

War is not over in the Syria/Iraq/Kurdistan region, and the Islamic State and Al Qaeda are still there, with Turkey and Russia likely to intervene, plus the Iran-Israel mess; all exploding again in Dec.2020, and finally the USA fully involved by 2025. Terrorist attacks are likely. Plus the danger of a right-wing rebellion here in the USA. All told, the climax of this 4T will be scary. I think the appetite for war is going down in the USA, at least, so I hope this war won't be on the scale of WWII or Vietnam, but I would not bet on there not being a war on the scale of other recent wars. We have never gotten out of a 4T without a large war, and our behavior as humans has not made such a real possibility yet. 

What is particularly striking about today is how stubbornly people cling to false ideas and ideologies in spite of any evidence. That applies to most older Americans I meet, in person and on-line, and it's even more true in screwed-up places like the Middle East. We do not listen, and we do not learn. Are we still even homo sapiens? How can we have peace under such human conditions?
(02-18-2019, 10:27 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2019, 10:15 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 09:49 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 04:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]<snip>

We are not free of foreign troubles either.


Quote:Oh but we could if we really wanted to.  Like any kindergarten kid learns, "keep your hands to yourself". Unfortunately we're infested with neocons who need to go back to kindergarten for not learning that.

We bungled the mess in the Middle East...,


Quote:You betcha!



with the Iraq invasion
Quote:Without a doubt. Now all Iraq are belong to Iran. Karma's a bitch.

and then the failure to support Syrian free rebels.


Quote:Now that's a rare success.


Now another war in Kurdistan is just about inevitable at the end of 2020,


Quote:So we're gonna go to war with a NATO partner, Turkey?

and that will lead to more terrorist attacks and/or fear of same,


Quote:Nope, if you don't trash folks' stuff, they'll stop getting pissed. I bet Americans would do terror on folks who bombed our country, right?


the Islamic State reappearing, and gradual re-involvement, and the USA will be fully back into the mess again by 2025.


Quote:Nope.  Guess what? I have a secret.  I have full faith and confidence that Assad , Hezbollah, and Russia will destroy IS and other terror groups in Syria.  After all, they have really good reasons to succeed. They've been doing a lot better than the US has so far in any event. However, the US may decide to engage in another clusterfuck and go back for more.

Now here is something very funny. I love it when neocons get exposed and raked over the coals.







Do you support an armed faction in Venezuela that engages in human rights violations?  Hahahahahah  Big Grin

OK Abrams, tell the truth. You're under oath after all. Answer her question and no shuffling.  Mrs. Omar has done 2 wonderful things. The above and calling out AIPAC.  I wish all those AIPAC whores would just lay off her. She spoke truth to power here. So Mrs. Omar, you go girl!


Now of course, the time is coming, that I agree , a war and big is coming.  So for the Millies, the proper outro is thus


What's the difference between an AIPAC whore and a jihadist whore? I mean, their both all about the Benjamin's and both all about filling up war chests and funding proxy wars being fought abroad. What kind of IDIOT blue elected a person like her to speak for them or represent their interests or the views of their American district? 

AIPAC is to Judaism as jihadis are to Islam, so much is true. Ms. Omar is a Muslim, but is certainly not a Jihadi. My guess is that the blues who elected her are fed up with stupid Neocons like Mr. Walrus [Bolton] and Mr. land whale [Pompeo]. I'm fine with her myself.  Let's cut out all of that waste , fraud, and abuse in the "defense" budget and spend on something useful like single payer health care. It's the Neocons, not Ms. Omar who are all about blowing money on stupid wars of choice. Ms. Omar shredded that Neocon, Abrams about screwing around in Venezuela.  Here's another idea.  How about the US stopping messing around in Latin America?  Neocons are the primary engine of illegal immigration.  Exiling Neocons will work a lot better than a wall in solving the illegal immigration problem.  Looks like Trump and his Neocon buddies are the ultimate dotards here.








Antiwar Blues = Sunshine

Neocons = Sorrow, man. Cool

How do you know that she's not a jihadist sympathizer or an affiliate of theirs of some sort? Do you know her personally? She grew up less than 20 miles from me but I don't know her any better than you. She's one of your leaders, you better get to know her because your needs are directly tied to her success. How close are you and the blues to losing most American support?
(02-18-2019, 11:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2019, 05:47 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-18-2019, 01:38 PM)Hintergrund Wrote: [ -> ]Theoretically, America could have made the huge war Strauss & Howe thought possible for the Crisis since 9/11. But it didn't happen. I suspect the remaining Silents are doing what they're doing best: Postponing the inevitable.

Let's hope that a major war is not on the horizon.  We've had several large wars since WW-II, but a war on that scale today could end civilization, not just a few governments.  Let's hope for at least that much sanity.

It wouldn't take a war to have the same impact today.

Yes, just ignore AGW for a few decades and viola: Armageddon.
(02-14-2019, 03:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]No go on Pete; his score is only 5-11. He'll never be president. Oh well, another one bites the dust Wink

We'll have to disagree on that.  Any young progressive gay guy who can win a mayoralty contest in rock-rib conservative South Bend Indiana has real political chops.  That said, I don't see him winning, or even running that hard, this cycle.  I can see him as VP and later POTUS, if things work out that way.
(02-19-2019, 11:02 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 03:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]No go on Pete; his score is only 5-11. He'll never be president. Oh well, another one bites the dust Wink

We'll have to disagree on that.  Any young progressive gay guy who can win a mayoralty contest in rock-rib conservative South Bend Indiana has real political chops.  That said, I don't see him winning, or even running that hard, this cycle.  I can see him as VP and later POTUS, if things work out that way.

Northwestern Indiana includes the industrial wrecks of Gary, Hammond, and Michigan City, and the non-growth area of South Bend. These areas, Greater Indianapolis, Lafayette-West Lafayette and Bloomington are about as liberal as the cities to which they are comparable in Michigan and Ohio (Gary to Flint, Hammond to Dayton, South Bend to Kalamazoo, Indianapolis to Columbus, and the college towns around Indiana University and Purdue University to Ann Arbor. The rest of Indiana is very conservative. South Bend is a college town (Notre Dame) but that aspect of South Bend is small; Notre Dame is a small school even if it has a high profile for its college football teams and for being a fine academic school. (The trick to Notre Dame: South Bend has few distractions, and the winter weather is horrible. You need a car to get to the beaches around Lake Michigan or to the fairly-interesting cities of Chicago, Indianapolis, and perhaps Grand Rapids or Toledo).

I live near South Bend and have been there a few times. It has been an economic wreck since Studebaker went under more than half a century ago, but people have adapted. They use South Bend as a springboard to places like Chicago and Indianapolis where there is some possibility of prosperity. It has dealt better with its economic decline than have such Hell-holes as Detroit, Flint, and Gary. It's more like Toledo, except that Toledo has more to do except to make a living.

America has never elected the mayor of a giant, let alone medium-sized, city who had not since become a US Senator or a state governor. It is a pity, as the mayor of a large city has responsibilities comparable to those of the governor of a small state. Thus Bill Clinton, Governor of Arkansas and not Rudy Giuliani (who was a good mayor, but WTF about his discreditable attachment to Donald Judas-Iscariot Trump?). If I were to pick two Republicans in the recent past who would have been excellent Presidents, I would have picked a former mayor of Indianapolis (Richard Lugar) and a former mayor of Cleveland (George Voinovich) who had also become US Senators. Lugar solved many problems of Indianapolis before they could begin by annexing all unincorporated areas of Marion County to Indianapolis before they could become independent suburbs (so if you work in Indianapolis, you still end up paying the city and county share of sales taxes as well as property taxes to Indianapolis) and Voinovich kept a tough city from rotting faster. As much of my focus is on the 2020 Presidential election which will decide whether America does well in the critical stages (the last ones!) of the current 4T or does badly, I try to be non-partisan in my criticism of Donald Trump.

....The misconduct of Donald Trump suggests that his astrological score is losing its relevance (if one believes in that). It might be possible to find a criminal with high numbers who would do better than someone like Amy Klobuchar, who so far seems to have most of the hallmarks of prior good-to-great Presidents of the past. But that criminal has such crimes as sexual assault or drug dealing in his past, and one would definitely not want someone like that as President. As the Bard says, the fault with most of us does not lie in our stars. Maybe there is a kid from the wrong side of the tracks who, despite having an astrological chart like that of Donald Trump, got in the habit of stealing cars. Even if one has 'good' astrological signs, how one uses the advantage matters greatly.

I would give Donald Trump low scores on emotional maturity and high scores on either pathological narcissism or outright sociopathy, either of which is incompatible with effective and desirable leadership. He might have been tolerable enough in 2016 to people to whom he appealed on their ethnic and religious bigotry or contempt for intellectual elites.  I don't pretend to see him with anything other than disdain. I thought that he was a cruel, shallow egoist whose Self lacks much and whose curriculum vitae shows no sign of solid preparation for the Presidency. I still see him as such, and ascribe much of his failure to such. But that is not enough to decide that he should be rejected in 2020. Now we know the consequences, and that should be enough to ensure his defeat in a re-election bid. Although it is a commonplace trait of dictators and despots to create scapegoats from Albigensian heretics and witches in medieval times to kulaks and Jews in the 20th century, such is not good for creating a wholesome society.
(02-19-2019, 11:02 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 03:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]No go on Pete; his score is only 5-11. He'll never be president. Oh well, another one bites the dust Wink

We'll have to disagree on that.  Any young progressive gay guy who can win a mayoralty contest in rock-rib conservative South Bend Indiana has real political chops.  That said, I don't see him winning, or even running that hard, this cycle.  I can see him as VP and later POTUS, if things work out that way.

You are welcome to disagree. He seems a smart, articulate guy with good ideas, and you make a good point. The only thing I can see that might stop him from going all the way, besides prejudice against a gay president, is he doesn't seem all that powerful a personality. That may make no difference to liberals like us, and it doesn't tend to. But we aren't the majority, and Americans elect powerful personalities that come out on top amid rough and tumble contests and the rigors of personal disclosure and publicity, and they defeat, well, wimps, wusses, wonks, and so on. And I have to go by what my system says; it works, so I report on it. It is what it is, FWIW!
Virginia, Quinnipiac:

Virginia is definitely not Trump country. Only 36% of Virginia voters approve of him, and 59% disapprove of him. At this point, Virginia looks like a Democratic runaway for the Presidential election in 2020.

Northam: 39-44.

Kaine: 55-35

Warner 51-31

Democratic Party favorability 44-46
Republican Party favorability 33-56

Third trimester abortions if the physician determines that a woman's life or health is at risk  

Support 58 Oppose 31

Fairfax is in deep trouble on the charges of sexual assault.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-det...aseID=2600


Three other states check in. One poll of Iowa has Trump at 46-50 (no big change); in Texas he is actually treading water at 48-47. On the other hand he is at 40-53 in North Carolina, which is undeniably catastrophic if it isn't an outlier. Trump at 36-59 in Virginia suggests that the 40-53 in North Carolina is not a flagrant outlier.


[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 97
40-43% 34
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

31 more states, and 248 electoral votes to go!
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