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(02-19-2019, 05:20 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-19-2019, 11:02 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-14-2019, 03:49 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]No go on Pete; his score is only 5-11. He'll never be president. Oh well, another one bites the dust Wink

We'll have to disagree on that.  Any young progressive gay guy who can win a mayoralty contest in rock-rib conservative South Bend Indiana has real political chops.  That said, I don't see him winning, or even running that hard, this cycle.  I can see him as VP and later POTUS, if things work out that way.

You are welcome to disagree. He seems a smart, articulate guy with good ideas, and you make a good point. The only thing I can see that might stop him from going all the way, besides prejudice against a gay president, is he doesn't seem all that powerful a personality. That may make no difference to liberals like us, and it doesn't tend to. But we aren't the majority, and Americans elect powerful personalities that come out on top amid rough and tumble contests and the rigors of personal disclosure and publicity, and they defeat, well, wimps, wusses, wonks, and so on. And I have to go by what my system says; it works, so I report on it. It is what it is, FWIW!

I saw him in action on Morning Joe, where he parried every complaint with a counter thrust without being obnoxious about it.  He even made the case for the Green New Deal as the only viable solution to AGW, underemployment and social justice.
[size=10pt]Gallup Trump approvals in all 50 states[/size]

Cautionary note: this data was gathered throughout the whole of 2018, so take it with a grain of salt.  But it's a lot better than no data.  Summary:

Quote:Although much can change between now and Election Day 2020, a job approval rating of 50% or higher would presumably put Trump in good position to win a state in the presidential election. The 17 states with 50%+ approval ratings account for a combined total of 102 electoral votes. In contrast, the states in which Trump has an approval rating below 40% account for 201 electoral votes.

In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was between 41% and 49%. Some of the more challenging states to win from among this group, based on that approval rating, would be Texas (41%); Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (all at 42%); and Arizona and Florida (43%).


OK. Out with the crayons on the map. This is not to be confused with my display of the most recent credible polls siince the 2018 midterm electionl Every state that Trump lost in 2016 in which his approval rating is at 40%  or less is in maroon. There is no polling data on the District of Columbia, but we don't have to be stupid. Every state in which Trump approval is at 55% or higher is in navy blue.

Gallup 2018 data only.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Based on approval ratings, every one of these states should be double-digit wins for the Democrat or for Trump. The amazing facet of this map is that every state that Trump lost even by a small margin in 2016 is seemingly out of reach for him. His barest loss was New Hampshire, where the approval number for him is 35-58. The shakiest of these states against him is Nevada, at 40-55. 55% disapproval means that 55% of the voters will not vote for one. 55% approval seals a double-digit win.

Trump
approval 55% or higher
lost in 2016, approval 40% or lower, disapproval 55% or higher, and the majority of the statewide House vote going to Democrats
losses in 2016, approval 40% or lower


(OK, let's cut the verbiage for the likely electoral disaster for the President:

approval 55% or higher
Trump loss in 2016, approval numbers 40%A 55%D or worse, total US House races majority D

If you think that the vote of 2016 is irrelevant to 2020 -- then you are right. But note that every state in deep red has shown that

(1)Trump lost in 2016
(2) Trump approval is 40% or lower with disapproval over 55%
(3) in all of these states (DC is disqualified on this point because it does not elect a delegate to Congress), Democrats won the overall majority of the vote for Congressional seats, but we don't have any cause to believe that Trump would win the District of Columbia.

If Trump were doing something to keep some of the marginal  constituencies that he won in 2016 and cut into marginal constituencies that chose to vote against him, there would not be so large a collection of states that I already see by every possible criterion for at least one year going against him gives him only 40% approval and a full 55% disapproval (the state is Nevada), he must do freakishly well elsewhere.  Sure, Obama picked up nothing in 2016 from 2012, but he did not end up losing Georgia or Arizona by double-digit margins. His Party was clobbered in all of these states in the Congressional elections of 2018.

There's not much wiggle room for some incumbent who states in the face of 230 or more electoral votes in which one reasonably projects to lose by double-digit margins that one lost in the previous election. Sure, Trump can win by winning everything outside the zone of states that he lost in 2016, but when the 'best' state for him that he lost in the previous election. Trump's barest losses in 2016 illustrate that he has not been gaining good will in states that must reasonably closer than this if he has to have a chance in 2020:


Colorado 39-56
Maine 37-61
Minnesota 39-57
New Hampshire 35-58
Nevada 40-55
Virginia 40-56


(OK -- Ronald Reagan's GOP did badly in the 1982 Congressional election and won a landslide in 1984. Like Trump, Reagan inflicted some pain, but anyone who sees Trump as a new Reagan misses some important points. Ronald Reagan followed the script that others gave him, and he was effective in expressing why it was necessary for Americans to reduce their economic expectations to beat stagflation. Stagflation, which practically no American liked, was gone in 1984. Reagan and people who could say "no" to him achieved something. A President surrounded by yes-men, Trump is simply offending people in the political center. Add to this, the sobriquet "Great Communicator" applied to someone who honed his skills in appealing to the public in the best school for such possible in America -- the film industry in the Golden Age of cinema. Maybe he wasn't quite in the league with such stars as H. Bogart, J. Cagney, C. Gable, G. Cooper, H. Fonda, J. Wayne, J. Stewart, B. Lancaster, G. Peck, L. Nielson, or P. Newman -- but  he was good. One needed a smooth delivery to work in Hollywood back in those days.   Trump is a sick joke as a performer in his Apprentice.

Now in medium shades of red (states that Trump won in 2016, Trump approval is at 45A-51D or worse, and the Democrats won the majority of the House vote:


[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


approval 55% or higher
approval 50%  to 54%
white -- Trump approval under 50% but tied or positive in net
Trump approval 45% or lower and net negative
Trump approval numbers 45%A 51%D or lower, Democrats won the majority of the House seats
Trump loss in 2016, approval numbers 40%A 55%D or worse, total US House races majority D

Note well that President Trump won everything not in maroon (deep red) in 2016, and he is not going to get any of it. If you are not going to pick up any loss from the prior election and you want to get re-elected, then you had better have started with at least 325 electoral votes to avoid losing, which means that you had better be at least as good as Obama in stopping losses. (Obama went from 365 to 332, and he came close to losing Florida, which would have made a close election in the Electoral College).   Of course, Obama lost the two states that he won with less than 50% of the popular vote in 2008, the two states in which he should have been most vulnerable -- and the wayward NE-02.

Trump is not winning people over, and when someone gets elected with the level of initial support that he got, he will have to win some people over. His House majority vanished, which I see especially relevant (states in medium red) in those states in which the statewide vote went against the President's Party in Congress. As an example, Iowa went to Trump by 9% in 2016, but Iowa voters certainly took it out on the Republican delegation to Congress. Demographics may be hurting Trump in Arizona, which was close in 2016. Trump's barest losses in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have hideous approval numbers for him.

The thrill is gone, baby!

It gets worse. States in pink are  all must-win states for the President, and Gallup polling (and 2019 polling) are awful for him.

In theory anything is possible. The President can reshape the political climate with FDR-style leadership... if he is FDR and America is ready for it. The big reality for now is that Donald Trump won everything not in maroon on the map, because that makes him President and gives him the theoretical ability to lead America into a new age in which they trust big landowners, shysters, urban landlords, religious hucksters, and business executives more than they trust people who  fail to believe in the wonders of a pure plutocracy because of global warming, multiculturalism, Marxism, or godlessness. In 2020 people will be judging whether he has "made America great again" -- for themselves.

Trump is closer to a Berzelius Windrip (from Sinclair Lewis' It Can't Happen Here) than to any President that anyone can have admired in the past. Heck, Warren Gamaliel Harding would be an improvement!

But I show my bias here. In theory the Chicago White Sox (no, I do not confuse them with the Cubbies!) could win the World Series this year. All that the White Sox need do is to find the new Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Warren Spahn, Catfish Hunter, and Lefty Grove all at once. I'm picking the Yankees -- they are really good, and it is their turn. I am not a Yankees fan. I live in Michigan, which should explain much. "My" Tigers somehow avoided losing 100 games last year, and I predict them to be that bad next year. I try to be neutral in my predictions.
FWIW, the next few months will set the stage for 2020, and we're still in the dark about the strongest drivers: Mueller and the SDNY. Of the two, the SDNY has the strongest bead on Trump, writ large. They also are under no time constraint, so the findings there may be long in coming. Mueller, on the other hand, needs to finish in the next few months or his efforts will be subsumed under a pile of rhetoric coming from Trump and the GOP in general -- unless the findings are devastating. We don't know yet, so this will continue to brew.

All things considered, Trump has long odds on reelection. He's also devious and imperious. I'm less than sanguine.
D-CYFOR, Feb. 22-23, 1000 RV.  This is a British pollster, and I'm not aware of any previous U.S. political polls by them.

Approve 43
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 39

2020 GCB: D 46, R 39

Presidential matchups:

Biden 51, Trump 40
Sanders 50, Trump 41
Booker 46, Trump 43
Warren 45, Trump 42
Harris 45, Trump 43

According to this pollster, Trump is behind everyone that this pollster asks about. Although Democrats do not quite cross the 50% threshold, Trump seems to win against nobody.

It would take a big calamity of an opponent to lose to Trump -- or electoral fraud. .
(03-01-2019, 01:40 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]D-CYFOR, Feb. 22-23, 1000 RV.  This is a British pollster, and I'm not aware of any previous U.S. political polls by them.

Approve 43
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 39

2020 GCB: D 46, R 39

Presidential matchups:

Biden 51, Trump 40
Sanders 50, Trump 41
Booker 46, Trump 43
Warren 45, Trump 42
Harris 45, Trump 43

According to this pollster, Trump is behind everyone that this pollster asks about. Although Democrats do not quite cross the 50% threshold, Trump seems to win against nobody.

It would take a big calamity of an opponent to lose to Trump -- or electoral fraud.  .

As I would expect so far. Biden and Sanders can possibly win, but the newbie losers cannot. A margin of at least 5% is needed to overcome Trump's superior candidate skills and his base loyalty AND the even more significant built-in systemic advantages for a Republican, including voter suppression and discouragement laws, the electoral college that favors rural states, the money advantages conferred by the Citizens United decision, etc.

I am less than sanguine about the chances for the current crop of candidates to defeat Trump, or for a 2/3 vote of conviction to remove him by the Republican Senate.
(02-18-2019, 11:46 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]I see much of the Islamic world undergoing the authoritarian way of much of the Christian world eighty years ago with fascism.

You're definitely onto something here. Remember how America invaded the Islamic world after 9/11. Afghanistan 2001, Iraq 2003... Not that it was wrong per se, but the war was badly lead. Not surprising. It started in a 3T, and even now the 4T doesn't feel like things were changing.

Now do the math: WW1 messed up Europe, and about 20 years after its end, WW2 started. Hence it makes sense to assume that the yuge war against Islam will start in a few years.

The equivalent of fascism is already there, ISIS. Don't expect it'll be gone soon - they'll go underground.

If you want to know the coming Islamist leaders, look among those who were 20-somethings when this war started.
FOR RELEASE: MARCH 5, 2019: 64 PERCENT OF U.S. VOTERS SAY TRUMP COMMITTED A CRIME, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; PRESIDENT GETS MIXED GRADES FOR NORTH KOREA.

But

President Donald Trump committed crimes before he became president, American voters say 64 24 percent in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Republicans say 48 33 percent that President Trump did notcommit crimes before he was president, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) UniversityNational Poll finds. Every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group says by wide margins that Trump committed crimes.But U.S. voters are divided 45 43 percent on whether Trump committed any crimes while he has been president. A presidential candidate paying money to hide a negative story during a campaign, and not disclosing that payment, is unethical and a crime, 40 percent of voters say. Another 21 percent say it is unethical, but not a crime, and 20 percent say it is not unethical.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us03052019_uyvk36.pdf/
(03-05-2019, 07:05 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]FOR RELEASE: MARCH 5, 2019: 64 PERCENT OF U.S. VOTERS SAY TRUMP COMMITTED A CRIME, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; PRESIDENT GETS MIXED GRADES FOR NORTH KOREA.

But

President Donald Trump committed crimes before he became president, American voters say 64 24 percent in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Republicans say 48 33 percent that President Trump did notcommit crimes before he was president, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) UniversityNational Poll finds. Every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group says by wide margins that Trump committed crimes.But U.S. voters are divided 45 43 percent on whether Trump committed any crimes while he has been president. A presidential candidate paying money to hide a negative story during a campaign, and not disclosing that payment, is unethical and a crime, 40 percent of voters say. Another 21 percent say it is unethical, but not a crime, and 20 percent say it is not unethical.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us03052019_uyvk36.pdf/

A majority says he's a criminal and a majority opposes impeachment.  It's hard to know what that means.
Perhaps people would rather Trump finish up as a one term president (that is, wait him out) than have a big mess with an impeachment.
(03-06-2019, 11:45 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: [ -> ]Perhaps people would rather Trump finish up as a one term president (that is, wait him out) than have a big mess with an impeachment.

That won't work, though, if the Democrats nominate another loser, as seems likely. The best bet is to nominate someone with a better score on my horoscope system than Trump has. I only know of three potential candidates now who qualify; none have announced.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html see who scored what

Trump should not be underestimated. No matter WHAT he does, 40% or more of the deceived and polarized American electorate will still vote for him, and he needs only 46% to win in our rigged election system. Americans are responsible for Trump, not Trump.

Impeachment and conviction is thus the best route, since Pence would be easier to beat; but it's an unlikely route to succeed. Since investigations and controversy about them will be ongoing, it seems to me that the "mess" will continue whether impeachment proceedings are brought or not. And opinions will not shift very much about it, no matter WHAT happens.
(03-06-2019, 11:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(03-05-2019, 07:05 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]FOR RELEASE: MARCH 5, 2019: 64 PERCENT OF U.S. VOTERS SAY TRUMP COMMITTED A CRIME, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; PRESIDENT GETS MIXED GRADES FOR NORTH KOREA.

But

President Donald Trump committed crimes before he became president, American voters say 64 24 percent in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Republicans say 48 33 percent that President Trump did notcommit crimes before he was president, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) UniversityNational Poll finds. Every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group says by wide margins that Trump committed crimes.But U.S. voters are divided 45 43 percent on whether Trump committed any crimes while he has been president. A presidential candidate paying money to hide a negative story during a campaign, and not disclosing that payment, is unethical and a crime, 40 percent of voters say. Another 21 percent say it is unethical, but not a crime, and 20 percent say it is not unethical.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us03052019_uyvk36.pdf/

A majority says he's a criminal and a majority opposes impeachment.  It's hard to know what that means.

That's my impression as well. 

Imagine if Hillary had paid someone to hide a negative story during her campaign. We'd never hear the end of it and she'd lose, be impeached, etc.

The 40% of America that is stark raving mad has us by the throat!
Gallup, March 1-10, 1039 adults (prior poll Feb. 12-28)

Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

He cannot be re-elected with those numbers.




Sometimes one gets to see two different polling takes on the same state within two weeks, and without an intervening event. News involving the President has been on the quiet side, But while Quinnipiac concurs with "St. Leo" on disapproval, it has even lower approval.

Quote:With a big thumbs down from women, Florida voters give President Trump a negative 41 - 53 percent approval rating. Women give Trump a negative 35 - 59 percent approval rating. Men are tied 47 - 47 percent.  

...and
Quote:A bare majority of Florida voters, 51 percent, say they definitely won't vote for President Donald Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 31 percent say they definitely would vote for the president and 14 percent say they would consider voting for him.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-deta...aseID=2606

Disapproval matters more, but the map changes. Notice that "Definitely will not vote for Trump" is practically identical  to disapproval.  Does this President have any remaining reservoir of good will with the American electorate? Apparently not enough. Can he build some? It is almost certainly too late. The Trump Presidency is all about you-know-who, and it ain't you.

If anyone thinks, "But Obama got re-elected" -- Obama rationally countered the calumnies of his opponents on the way to re-election. Trump is getting it just as hard from Democrats as Obama got it from Republicans and their front groups. He is a delusional midget in contrast to Obama.  


[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 69
40-43% 63
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

29 more states, and 231 electoral votes to go!



Florida will not decide the Presidency in 2020.  I see Wisconsin as the tipping-point state in 2020, and there nothing seems to have gone well for Trump since the 2016 election. The incumbent Republican was defeated in a bid for a third term. The incumbent Democratic Senator won by a landslide. The majority of the House vote went to Democrats statewide even if gerrymandering aids the Republicans in maintaining their majority in the House delegation. Approval ratings and especially disapproval ratings have been dismal in Wisconsin for the President.

I checked 270towin.com to determine how Trump can win the Presidency if all of his wins with less than 10% except Texas are up for grabs. He loses every state and district that he lost in 2016, all of which showed approval numbers of 40% or lower and disapproval in excess of 55% throughout 2018 according to Gallup polling data. His best prospect in that group is Nevada, where his approval was at 40% and disapproval was at 55%. He will not win Nevada with numbers like that.

Trump automatically loses 232 electoral votes even in states that he barely lost in 2016. If one won the previous election just barely, then some of the bare losses from the previous election must be in play. They aren't. Ruling out unlikely ties that mostly involve odd combinations, I find that if I have Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as possible losses for Trump in 2020, I find 59 possible combinations involving a minimum number of states and districts going against him ((thus if Trump loses Florida and Pennsylvania, nothing else will matter) and 29 possible wins for him.

(In case you were wondering about Texas, Texas gets the Democrat to exactly 270 even if Trump sweeps all else that is an imaginable win for him).

Florida leaves little leeway. Trump could lose Florida and Iowa and still win, but that makes little sense because he is not going to win Iowa
 without also losing something else. Trump must practically sweep the board should he lose Florida, his fourth-weakest win in 2016. Florida and any combination of nine more electoral votes wins the election for the Democrat outright.

Florida looks good for the Governor and both Senators, all Republicans. Trump loses on climate change, guns, and offshore drilling, issues on which he is resolute.
To Trump or not to Trump, that is the question. Whether 'tis nobler, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune...

Never mind. Or should I say never more so that I can add an allusion to Edgar Allan Poe as well as to the Bard?

Quote:A bare majority of Florida voters, 51 percent, say they definitely won't vote for President Donald Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 31 percent say they definitely would vote for the president and 14 percent say they would consider voting for him.

.....

President Trump's Approval

With a big thumbs down from women, Florida voters give President Trump a negative 41 - 53 percent approval rating. Women give Trump a negative 35 - 59 percent approval rating. Men are tied 47 - 47 percent.

The state most vulnerable to global warming dislikes the President's stances on global warming, guns, and offshore oil drilling. Republicans at the statewide level may be  able to dodge those issues at least for now, and I am not going to speculate whether they get away with that in 2020. But for the most obvious reasons possible (they are not up for re-election in 2020) the Governor and the two Republican Senators from Florida are safe for now.

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Do not re-elect:

Over 50%, margin 4% or less -- pink
Over 50%. margin 5-8% -- red
Over to%, margin 9% or more -- maroon


(Nothing really changes. I would still love to see a poll of the Keystone State!)
PPP for Protect Our Care

National, 661 voters

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content...ts-1-1.pdf

Approve/disapprove of Trump

42 approve, 54 disapprove

Trump or his Democratic opponent

41 Trump, 52 the Democrat, 7 don't know


Some issues:

72% oppose Medicare cuts (13% approve). 60% oppose Medicaid cuts (24% approve). Trump has offered a budget with $1 trillion in cuts to Medicare and Medicaid -- each.


Quote:Voters say the budget makes them less likely to support Trump for reelection: -50% of voters say they’re less likely to support Trump because he broke his promise not to cut Medicare and Medicaid-including 54% with independentswhile only 14% say they’re more likely to support him. -54% of voters say they’re less likely to support Trump because he cut Medicare & Medicaid after giving away hundreds of billions of dollars in new tax breaks for big corporations, including 57% of voters people over age 65 and 51% of Independents. Just 15% say they’re more likely to support Trump due to the cuts.
FoX Propaganda Channel really does distort political views.

[Image: D2L1aYeX0AEXd6O.png:large]

50% of Republican voters who do not watch FoX News agree that the President was right to declare a national emergency to get border-wall funding, which is one of the most egregious attempts to violate the separation of powers in American history. Of course that is still too many. It would be constitutionally wrong for any purpose.  To say that 84% of Republicans who watch FoX News Channel support such a border wall through emergency powers is extremely shocking.

Emergency powers? That is one of the first demands of any new dictator, whether Lenin, Hitler, or Pinochet.

FoX News Channel is a training ground not so much for conservatism, as the difference in voting for Republicans for Republican candidates for the House of Representatives  is much the same (88% versus 95%) and even the recognition that mainstream American media have a liberal bias (76% of Republicans as non-viewers of FoX as opposed to 89% of Republicans who watch FoX News), as it is a training ground for totalitarianism.

One question is on how much Donald Trump has achieved as President. Believing that he has achieved more in two years than any prior President, including the President who defined the Presidency (Washington), made the Louisiana Purchase (Jefferson), presided over the annexation of what are now Texas and California and lands in between (Polk), a President who won a war against secession and got slavery abolished (Lincoln), presided over the strongest reform package between Lincoln and FDR, the President who took twelve years to get America out of depression and doom the two most dangerous and demonic enemies that America ever had (FDR, of course), Eisenhower with his Interstate Highway system that has changed the way we Americans get around, LBJ with his Great Society programs, ... even Obama got us Obamacare which may have saved my life, and who probably put the fear of America into international terrorists by whacking Osama bin Laden.

I can understand conservatives believing Donald Trump a good President, largely for sharing their political values; such explains that 71% of all Republicans who don't watch FoX News approve of the president (That low number is horrid for any Republican pol, but that is a different story. Maybe that low number is about such things as the emergency powers and being willing to let the Mueller investigation take its course. Trump is undeniably right-wing on economic and social values. Falling for the personality cult of Donald Trump suggests a contempt for democracy as would falling for the personality cult of someone like the late Fidel Castro.

By the way -- non-Republicans who watch FoX News are much more likely than non-Republicans who do not watch FoX News to fall for the totalitarian tendencies of Trump supporters.

Voting Republican is not fascistic. Believing that any President deserves or needs emergency powers to circumvent the budgetary process is anti-democratic.
Trump job performance in Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall):

Excellent 18%
Good 16
Fair 13
Poor 53

https://t.co/ZNlBaBy1Lw


Treating the "fair" category as ambiguous because the word has some favorable connotations (as in "fair weather", "fair play", and "fair dealing", that probably translates charitably to 41-53 in approval.

Even more telling:

Quote:One in three (36%) registered voters believes President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while three in five (61%) voters say it is time for a change.

Maybe a 41-53 spread that an Electric Green Flaming Polonium poll suggests if I assume that half the "fair" votes are approval is too generous.


To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it, with apology to the Bard:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


50% or more against Trump, margin 9% or higher
50% or more against Trump, margin 5% to 8%
50% or more against Trump, margin 4% or less

The usual margin of error is 4%, and twice that is not close.

(Nothing really changes. I would still love to see a poll of the Keystone State!)

With this question I have yet to see any state in which people say that they prefer Trump to any imaginable alternative, including some conservative who offers a different agenda and perhaps more probity as well as the Democratic nominee.


Well, we have one. It is not approval and disapproval (although I can guess), but it is "To Trump or not to Trump". Trump's three barest wins of 2016 reject him severely.

.....................

Now I have the sort of poll that I really want to see from Pennsylvania (Trump's second-barest win in 2016) and New Hampshire (Trump's barest loss in 2016). The only mitigation of his trouble in New Hampshire, approval numbers in the 30s and disapproval numbers around 60%, is that New Hampshire has only four electoral votes. But most polling has Trump doing badly in the other states that he most barely lost (Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Nevada) in 2016 with approvals no higher than 40% and disapproval numbers in the 50s or worse.

The last three Presidents got re-elected with five (Clinton -- AZ, CO, FL, GA, and MT), three (Dubya -- IA, NH, and NM), or two (Obama -- IN and NC) states swinging one way or another. In each case the states that swung had been close in the first election, and in all but two (IN, MO for Obama) were still close if the incumbent lost them. Clinton would have still won had he lost five states that he won in 1992; Dubya did not lose one of the two states (FL, OH) that he could not afford to lose; Obama lost the two states that he most barely won in 2008 and had won with less than 50% of the popular vote in 2008, and was in danger only of making things close.

All states that Trump lost, even barely, in 2016 are out of reach according to 2018 and 2019 polling. He won five states with less than 50% of the popular vote (from slightest percentage margins to largest, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida -- the fourth one by only 1.19%, Arizona, and North Carolina, the latter two by 3.50% and 3.66%, respectively). Any one of those states could easily swing against Trump in 2020. If one of two is Florida, then Trump loses. Any three of these states going against Trump loses the election for him.

ARG, New Hampshire:

34% approve, 58% disapprove.

https://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/

The barest loss for Trump in 2016 looks like a double-digit loss in 2020. The map does not change at all for New Hampshire, but keep reading.

Trump is toxic in New Hampshire. Republican Governor Sununu is at 58-22 on approval and disapproval.

OK, so it is only four electoral votes. But we are accustomed to three consecutive Presidents winning re-election with electoral maps similar to those with which they got elected the first time. Two states and NE-02 switched in 2012; three states switched in 2004; five states switched in 1996.

I have yet to see any state going from H. Clinton to Trump or even being close to doing so.


Pennsylvania: Emerson, March 26-28, 359 RV (caution: small sample size)

Approve 41
Disapprove 51

It is extremely difficult for an incumbent pol to win with a disapproval rating more than 51%, which shows in any state in deep red, medium red, or pink with an asterisk.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 91
40-43% 39
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

28 more states, and 211 electoral votes to go!
AJC Poll for Georgia:

Trump approval:

Approve: 40
Disapprove: 56

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional...ieS90ixEN/



I've seen mostly horrid polls for Trump in Georgia. He won Georgia by a small margin in 2016, but he stands to lose it badly in 2020 with approval and disapproval numbers like that.

Approval and disapproval ratings of Donald Trump:


[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 76
40-43% 51
under 40% 144

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

27 more states, and 193 electoral votes to go!

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

8% or higher margin against Trump -- maroon
4-7.9% against Trump -- medium red
under 4% margin against Trump -- pink

I have yet to see exact ties or 'better' for Trump.

If anyone can tell me how President Trump wins with numbers like these aside from a rigged election, then tell me. .
Quote:Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-R...%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)


This is the first poll that anyone has taken after the release of the Mueller Report. The change is from last week. Sure, outliers happen, but this is an ugly drop for the President. If it were a market drop in the DJIA equivalent to a drop from the all-time high of 26,951 from 43% it would be a drop of  3760 points. If you are in the stock market you should be prepared for such drops in valuation, and if you aren't ready for such you should be in something like a savings account or life insurance.

Outlier? The first such poll always looks like an outlier. There could be more. Ipsos is a good pollster, so it probably reflects some real change. 

There are some shocking results in changes from March 25-26 to April 18-19 :

Should the President resign? 47-37 from 46-46

I think that President Trump or someone from his campaign worked with Russia to influence the 2016 election: 50-34 from 48-40

Some members of the Republican Party and the White House are working to delegitimize the FBI and Department of Justice in the investigation of Russian tampering in the 2016 presidential election

53-29 from 51-16

Some members of the FBI and Department of Justice are working to delegitimize President Trump through politically motivated investigations 51-31 from 46-32

President Trump tried to stop investigations into Russian influence on his administration 53-33 from 48-25

The final question is practically a rewording of "obstruction of justice" -- my interpretation.
Sanders MUST win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to have any chance against Trump.
(04-20-2019, 03:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Sanders MUST win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to have any chance against Trump.

So, reasonably, must any other Democrat.
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