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[quote author=pbrower2a link=topic=312802.msg7364676#msg7364676 date=1590274676 uid=3398]
Handling of COVID-19:

In your opinion, has President Trump handled the coronavirus crisis well? (yes - no - don't know/no response)

Arizona  40-51-9
North Carolina 40-49-11
Florida 41-49-10
Pennsylvania 37-53-10
Michigan 37-53-10
Wisconsin 35-55-10

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/...ng-states/

This is a British pollster.

Because the Plague of 2010 is the big story of the Trump Administration, performance on COVID-19, this is a good proxy for overall approval. Even the erratic foreign policy, the President's expressions of bigotry, and "the economy"  are now on the back burner due to COVID-19.  If the economy stays in the tank, then such will have an indelible link to COVID-19.[/quote]

This may be worse than the colors look because Trump approval in every one of these states is under 42%. The true tragedy of the Plague of 2020 has yet to hit many of us because unless we are medical personnel we rarely see people dying of it. People die of COVID-19  in private, unlike the case with something non-contagious such as cirrhosis, cancer, Parkinsonism, Alzheimer's, or congestive heart failure. In the last eight years I have seen seven people on the second-to-last or last days of their lives in knowledge that those people were dying. But all of those cases did not involve any contagious disease.

The full impact of COVID-19 will not affect people's thoughts until many of the funeral services delayed due to limited numbers of participants are held without such constraints. People will be asking to see death certificates

What is so bad about 41% approval? Late in May it is next to impossible to win re-election as an incumbent unless one already has 45% support by then. Trump might have gotten away with numbers like these in December or January, but as the season warms up, opinions typically fossilize in a contest of vision. Things can go terribly wrong with an incumbent -- a breaking scandal or an inept response to a natural disaster. COVID-19 is a natural disaster. Trump has been lucky until COVID-19 struck.          



[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher
Oooh, Trump is taking a bit of a hit in some recent polls. Two of them conservative-leaning!

RCP Average 5/13 - 5/24 -- 43.9 53.9 -10.0

poll / dates / sample / approve / disapprove / spread
Rasmussen Reports / 5/20 - 5/24 / 1500 LV / 43 / 55 / -12
FOX News / 5/17 - 5/20 / 1207 RV / 44 / 54 / -10
Reuters/Ipsos / 5/18 - 5/19 / 957 RV / 42 / 55 / -13

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6179.html
(05-25-2020, 04:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]Oooh, Trump is taking a bit of a hit in some recent polls. Two of them conservative-leaning!

RCP Average 5/13 - 5/24 -- 43.9 53.9 -10.0

poll / dates / sample / approve / disapprove / spread
Rasmussen Reports / 5/20 - 5/24 / 1500 LV / 43 / 55 / -12
FOX News / 5/17 - 5/20 / 1207 RV / 44 / 54 / -10
Reuters/Ipsos / 5/18 - 5/19 / 957 RV / 42 / 55 / -13

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6179.html

If his people see this as fake news, will it really matter?  In fact, might it be the opening salvo on the next round of nonsense?
Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.
(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.
(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?
(05-26-2020, 06:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?

Sadly, it may come to that, but let's avoid mayhem ourselves, okay?  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.
(05-26-2020, 07:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-26-2020, 06:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-26-2020, 06:20 PM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-25-2020, 08:57 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]Heck, I gestured to my mask in the presence of someone not wearing a mask, and the fellow told me that COVID-19 was a triviality, a plot of media pushing "fake news".

OK, I am 64, I have been through some very rough times, and I want to get my life back together. COVID-19 gets in the way for now, but if I get it I could end up dead. But if I don't get it... I'm smart and I have a good work ethic. Life could be good again. But only if I get past COVID-19.

Idiots are idiots. There's no fix for that.

Sit back and let the idiots kill themselves?

Sadly, it may come to that, but let's avoid mayhem ourselves, okay?  We should always keep in mind: masks are for others, and the idiots are getting protection they aren't offering in return.  Of course, they tend to socialize with like minded others, so maybe that's okay.

Much of the problem is that in the Internet era, anything that one wants to believe is "out there" for the believing.

I am the first to admit that this is a miserable time. For many, 2020 is the worst year in their lives. What was to be a glorious event is often deferred or denied. We face hardships characteristic of a war, and we are unable to do much of what we want to do -- and much of it is highly human. Don't we all want to see a movie or a sporting event? Don;t we want to see a live concert or theater performance?
Job Approval Rating

RCP Average 5/14 - 6/3 -- 42.8 53.9 -11.1
Emerson 6/2 - 6/3 1431 RV 43 50 -7
Rasmussen Reports 6/1 - 6/3 1500 LV 46 52 -6
Reuters/Ipsos 6/1 - 6/2 964 RV 40 57 -17
Economist/YouGov 5/31 - 6/2 1244 RV 43 55 -12
CBS News 5/29 - 6/2 1309 A 40 54 -14
Politico/Morning Consult 5/29 - 6/1 1981 RV 41 55 -14
Monmouth 5/28 - 6/1 742 RV 43 54 -11
CNBC 5/29 - 5/31 1457 LV 44 56 -12
ABC News/Wash Post 5/25 - 5/28 835 RV 45 53 -8
FOX News 5/17 - 5/20 1207 RV 44 54 -10
Quinnipiac 5/14 - 5/18 1323 RV 42 53 -11

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-6179.html
Don't trust the polls. Never trust the polls.
I remember on the day of the Brexit election, at the closing of the polls, they predicted that remain was 10 points ahead. Nigel Farage confirmed defeat twice
 Then the ballots started to come in and by 2am, it looked very much like leave had actually aced it. Toon the entire government by surprise.

What happened? The silent majority lied at the polls and pretended to vote for remain when in reality they were going for leave.

Same with Trump. It had Hilary 3 points ahead at the closing of the ballot. Then the silent majority kicked into force and we saw how that ended up.

I'm predicting the same with Biden. Unless Trump royally screws up with the riots, the silent majority effect is going to kick into play again.
Quote:Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!
.

Wishful thinking based upon polls released tonight in a swing state that seems to be swinging away from Trump tonight (Wisconsin), a "new" swing state (Arizona), and a state that seems to have lost its reputation as a swing state but is so again (Ohio), and one that has been quite close in the last three Presidential elections (North Carolina). When Texas is close (45-50 approval and disapproval, respectively even if Trump has a slight lead well within the margin of error in the possible match-up), several other states are slipping away from Trump:  

Quote:
Quote:Fox News state polls, May 30-June 2.

Arizona (1002 RV):

Approve 46 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 52 (strongly 41)

Biden 46, Trump 42


Ohio (803 RV):

Approve 50 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 48 (strongly 40)

Biden 45, Trump 43


Wisconsin (801 RV):

Approve 45 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 45)

Biden 49, Trump 40

Updated for another swing state:

Quote:North Carolina: PPP, June 2-3, 949 voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Biden 49, Trump 45

Cunningham 43, Tillis 41

Cooper 50, Forest 39

Quote:Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

So much for that...

The match-ups are even uglier than approval numbers for the President.  With the current disapproval numbers, Trump will need major changes in how voters perceive him to win Arizona, let alone Wisconsin. When Ohio is iffy, then Michigan and Pennsylvania are gone for the President.



Quote:President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are locked in a very tight race in Texas, with Trump receiving 44 percent of the vote and Biden receiving 43 percent in a general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll released today. Democrats go for Biden 90 - 5 percent, independents do the same 45 - 36 percent, and Republicans go for Trump 87 - 6 percent.


Voters say 54 - 40 percent that Trump would do a better job handling the economy, but say 49 - 43 percent that Biden would do a better job handling health care. Voters are split on who would do a better job handling the response to the coronavirus, as 47 percent say Biden and 45 percent say Trump.

President Trump receives a 45 - 50 percent job approval rating, unchanged from September of 2019.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=3662



And how bad could things be for the President in what might be his worst state?



Quote:Vermont: We Ask America, June 2-3, 500 LV

Approve 27
Disapprove 72

On the other extreme, Republican Governor Phil Scott has an 82/14 approval rating (not a typo).

No, the color is not wrong for Texas. Trump disapproval is exactly 50% there.  (Colors are inverted from the usual current Republican-Democratic split shown in most media, but Democrats used to be depicted as red (more socialistic) and Republicans used to be depicted as blue (more pro-capitalist) in the site from which I get the mapping program.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher
[Image: IpsosPoll_GeorgeFloyd_Q2_ApproveDisappro...x9_992.jpg]
(06-04-2020, 02:22 PM)Isoko Wrote: [ -> ]Don't trust the polls. Never trust the polls.
I remember on the day of the Brexit election, at the closing of the polls, they predicted that remain was 10 points ahead. Nigel Farage confirmed defeat twice
 Then the ballots started to come in and by 2am, it looked very much like leave had actually aced it. Toon the entire government by surprise.

What happened? The silent majority lied at the polls and pretended to vote for remain when in reality they were going for leave.

Same with Trump. It had Hilary 3 points ahead at the closing of the ballot. Then the silent majority kicked into force and we saw how that ended up.

I'm predicting the same with Biden. Unless Trump royally screws up with the riots, the silent majority effect is going to kick into play again.

Brexit was an anomaly that the UK, or what remains of it once reality sinks in, will come to regret: all the downside of Remain, with none of the upside.  Sorry, but the US will not riding to the rescue, nor will the Commonwealth.  And your argument about Hillary is wrong on the facts.  As much as the public disliked her then, she still won the popular vote by a healthy margin.  Our bizarre Electoral College favors rural over urban, but Trump is now even losing their support.  If he wins a second term, the US is done as a democratic experiment, and what emerges from the ashes will not be pretty.
Sorry David but you have it wrong about Brexit. The UK has always been squabbling about its EU membership right from day one. It's just when Thatcher restored the UK to economic prosperity, the voices muffled. When the economy started to struggle again, the fingers were out for the EU and ended up with Brexit after a two decade fight. It was never an anomaly but more of an inevitability.

To be honest, when it comes to the economy, it does not matter if the UK stays or leaves. The EU economy has been suffering since 2008 and the coronavirus has hit the nail on the head. It's basically a damned if you so situation. UK is going to get economically pounded either way.

Regarding Trump, it's like I have always said, the Democratic experiment in America is coming to an end and the next result will be an American Putinism (or basically caesarism). You need it in order to rebuild your house in order as democracy is too ineffectual right now to restore your fortunes.
(06-05-2020, 11:47 AM)Isoko Wrote: [ -> ]Regarding Trump, it's like I have always said, the Democratic experiment in America is coming to an end and the next result will be an American Putinism (or basically caesarism). You need it in order to rebuild your house in order as democracy is too ineffectual right now to restore your fortunes.

It's just the turnings turning. We will see how the crisis revolves. Given the old values of not solving problems or recognizing science, sure, government was ineffective during the unraveling. Hedonism ran rampant. Effective problem solving tends to occur in the crisis heart. That looks to happen under democracy.
Actually Bob, democracy always turns into caesarism during a crisis. FDR and Lincoln are prime examples of this. Even in Britain, Churchill assumed near dictatorial powers in response to the crisis at hand. It's usually after the crisis has abated that democracy returns to normal - that is until plutocracy forms again which once again goes back to caesarism. Rinse and repeat.
POLITICS
JUNE 17, 2020 / 3:05 AM / 6 DAYS AGO
Biden opens 13-point advantage as Trump popularity drops to seven-month low: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Chris Kahn
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e...H6LXjzHq54

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has opened up a 13-point lead over President Donald Trump - the widest margin this year - according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll as Americans grow more critical of Trump over the coronavirus pandemic and protests against police brutality.

In the June 10-16 poll, 48% of registered voters said they would back Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in the Nov. 3 election, while 35% said they would support Trump.

Biden’s advantage is the biggest recorded by the Reuters/Ipsos poll since Democrats began their state nominating contests this year to pick their party’s nominee to challenge Trump in November. A similar CNN poll from earlier this month showed Biden with a 14-point lead over Trump among registered voters.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed that 57% of U.S. adults disapproved of Trump’s performance in office, while just 38% approved, marking Trump’s lowest approval rating since November, when Congress was conducting its impeachment inquiry into the Republican president.

In a clear warning sign for Trump, his own support base appears to be eroding. Republicans’ net approval of Trump is down 13 points from March to June, declining every month in that span.

The shift in opinion comes as Americans are whipsawed by the coronavirus pandemic, the ensuing economic collapse and the outpouring of anger and frustration following numerous deadly confrontations between police and African Americans, including the death last month of George Floyd while in Minneapolis police custody.

Trump, who dismissed the threat of the coronavirus early on, sparred with state governors as they tried to slow its spread and has pushed authorities to allow businesses to reopen despite warnings from health experts about increasing risks of transmission.

More than 116,000 people in the United States have died from the virus and more than 2.1 million people have been infected, by far the most in the world. Some states that have reopened such as Florida, Arizona and Texas are seeing a jump in cases.

Altogether, 55% of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, while 40% approved, which is the lowest net approval for the president on the subject since Reuters/Ipsos started tracking the question in early March.

TRUMP EDGE ON ECONOMY
The president also has been criticized for the way he has responded to the protests that were sparked by Floyd’s killing.

While nearly two thirds of respondents sympathized with the protesters, according to the poll, Trump has openly flirted with deploying the military to “dominate” them. Earlier this month, police in Washington forcibly removed peaceful protesters so that Trump could pose for photographs in front of a church near the White House.

As businesses shuttered across the country because of coronavirus lockdowns, Americans have increasingly turned their focus to the economy and jobs as a top concern.

In that area, Trump still has the upper hand over Biden. Forty-three percent of registered voters said they thought Trump would be a better steward of the economy than Biden, while 38% said Biden would be better.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. The poll gathered responses from 4,426 American adults, including 2,047 Democrats and 1,593 Republicans. The poll had a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

(end of article)

My comment:
Real Clear Politics included this Reuters poll on approval-dissapproval in their list and poll average, but changed the numbers to 58-39. But they did not include this Reuters poll in their Trump vs. Biden list or average.
RCP Poll Averages

President Trump Job Approval
Approve41.2
Disapprove56.2
Disapprove +15.0

General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Biden50.0
Trump40.4
Biden +9.6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/
(06-30-2020, 04:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]RCP Poll Averages

President Trump Job Approval
Approve41.2
Disapprove56.2
Disapprove +15.0

General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Biden50.0
Trump40.4
Biden +9.6

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/

Here's one election decided by much that margin:

[Image: pe1980.png]




Ronald Reagan  George Bush Republican  43,903,230  50.75% 489 electoral votes

James Carter Walter Mondale Democratic  35,480,115 41.01%   49 electoral votes
This is more a projection than a poll.

Using the categories of electoral-vote.com, solid dark shades are for leads in excess of 10% (strong), medium solid shades are for leads of at least 5% but less than 10% (weak), and medium shades around  something light gray (this site allows pale shades, but not frames) are for less than 5% (barely). 4% is the usual margin of error, although I would be tempted to say that for such states as Alaska, Montana, and Texas I would assign a bigger margin of error -- 5% or even 6%.

The map, using the criteria of electoral-vote.com but Atlas coloration:

 [Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Strong Trump (margin 10% or greater)
Weak Trump (margin 5-9.9%)
Barely Trump (margin under 5%)

exact tie -- white
Barely Biden (margin under 5%)
Weak Biden (margin 5-9.9%)
Strong Biden (margin 10% or greater)





Note that this is really a projection that takes account of states' electoral histories as well as short-term polling. In contrast to the recent polls that have shown a sharp turn away from Trump in the last two weeks or so, this projection makes the assumption that people who made such a turn away from Trump are at most 'shaky' voters for Biden and are likely to return to Trump as the news becomes less inflamed.  So if Biden made recent gains, then how solid are those? Not quite as solid as those ready to vote for him in  April, let alone January. That Arizona hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1996 and not in a real binary election for President in that state (Strom Thurmond wasn't even on the ballot in Arizona in 1948) or that Texas hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1976 matters greatly. That Iowa and Ohio voted for Trump by large margins in 2016 also matters.

https://www.cbsnews.com/2020-us-election...00-10abc1f

Quote:While surveying voters across the country is an integral part of the Battleground Tracker, this is more than your typical poll. It's really a big data project. We combine polling, voter files (from L2 Political), U.S. Census data, and historical trends to get a clear picture of what's going on in each state.

Here's how we put together that combination:

We know which candidates different types of voters are supporting from our polling, which includes much larger sample sizes — tens of thousands — than a typical poll;
We know how many people like them are in each state and county, as well as their turnout history, from voter files and Census data;
And we know each state's previous election results, which enables us to anchor our 2020 estimates to recent history.

This approach achieves better estimates in states without as much polling. In 2016, for example, scarce polling in certain states like Michigan or Wisconsin led some to believe they were not as competitive as they turned out to be. That picture might have been improved by considering that these states were full of the same kinds of voters shifting to the Republican Party elsewhere.

We don't know who will change their minds at the last minute -- or how.
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