Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

Noted geopolitical prognosticator George Friedman has come around to the idea of an 80 year cycle.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/books-an...-the-calm/

He does believe in a 50 year socioeconomic cycle that beats against the 80 year institutional cycle.

I haven't read enough of the book to evaluate the 50 year cycle idea yet, but I did skim the conclusion.  He believes that this crisis, in the US, will pit the working class against the technorati, with the working class winning in the 2028 election after a failed technorati term - or possibly second term - starting in 2025.  Of course, he seems to take as a given that the leadership of the US will still be decided democratically at that point, something I'm not certain of.

I would reckon that his '50 year' cycle is really the half-cycle for the 80 cycle; ie. he has identified both the cultural turning point and the political turning point and just didn't combine them into one cycle.

(04-25-2020, 07:28 AM)sbarrera Wrote: [ -> ]I would reckon that his '50 year' cycle is really the half-cycle for the 80 cycle; ie. he has identified both the cultural turning point and the political turning point and just didn't combine them into one cycle.

He traces it back as out of phase, though; his 50 year cycles began with Reagan, FDR, Hayes, Jackson, and Washington.  I'm not sure about Hayes, but for the rest of those, I'd agree they were turning points in the socially accepted economic approach.

The cycle of depressions points to a 90-year cycle - the 1840s (which it took a war - the Mexican War - to end), the 1930s (which it also took a war - WW2 - to end), and now, the 2020s.