Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

(05-03-2021, 06:00 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-03-2021, 01:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I mostly agree with Brower's descriptions of the turnings, but not the dates or all the names.

1946-1963 1st turning. It ended with JFK's assassination, not MLK's.

1964-1984 2nd turning. Ends only with Reagan's re-election and "morning in America." Before then the awakening mood persisted into Reagan's 1st term, even though it was getting sullen and less inspiring. Again, it should not be called the Boom Awakening. It was the Consciousness Revolution, in which all generations participated. That does not mean that all generations were listening to the music of the new pop counter-culture, of course. But the Awakening belongs to the mid-1960s and the LSD-driven counter-culture, the human potential/new age movements, and all the myriad social and political awakenings, with 1966 being the year when it exploded at greatest Richter-scale levels. Remember the explosive emerging of "black power" culture proclaimed by Stokely Carmichael and Floyd McKissick at the march against fear in June 1966, and the simultaneous founding of the National Organization for Women. Remember what secular millennials forget about the Strauss and Howe theory; that the concept of Awakenings are the periodic spiritual events that contrast with the secular crisis periods. The second turning was a Consciousness Revolution, of tremendous scale and significance, and primarily to do with cultural and spiritual awakenings. It is the only period in the cycle where substantial numbers of people, mostly young and middle aged, can change their worldviews. That is what happened in the 2nd turning of 1964-1984. Today's millennials often try to suppress this awakening through such media as wikipedia, pretending that the discoveries of this awakening were just a passing phase. They are not; they remain true and relevant.

1984-2008 3rd turning. The Fall of Communism fits in well with the "decadent," neo-liberal and "free-market" Reaganomics program of this turning. Only the resulting great crash and recession in 2008 was the existential threat that could have sent the USA and the world off a financial cliff that could have been fatal; not Katrina. Before about Nov. 2008, economists were still not ready even to call it a recession. But the crash precipitated by the fall of Lehman Brothers in Sept.2008 was the decisive event. Before that, cracks were appearing (mostly only since 2007, not 2005), but they were only cracks; the mood of the nation had not shifted at all. People at WAMU were still tipping wine classes and celebrating their big profits.

2008-2029 4th turning. We just passed the half way point. The recession lingered for most people because the Republicans blocked everything after the initial stimulus. Then Trump came along, and although recovery continued at a slower rate than during Obama's second term, Trump himself became the Crisis personified, including his mishandling of covid. The regeneracy has begun, timed with the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of Dec. 21, 2020, but the Republicans have put up huge walls, and are putting up more. The resistance to progress has not been broken. So the Crisis goes on.

Covid was the inevitable result, as was the 2008 crash, of the rule of neo-liberalism, installed with Reagan's election in Nov. 1980 and tax cuts in July 1981 (on the exact date of Jupiter-Saturn conjunction). Although the 20-year/40-year Jupiter-Saturn/Skowronek cycle played out with these events, and ending with Trump's fall, the Awakening mood continued after 1981 because Reagan was still unpopular and because the 1980 recession continued, and so did the 2nd turning in the 84-year saeculum/Uranus cycle. But once neo-liberalism became enthroned, with its "trickle-down economics" program of lower taxes and regulations on the "job creaters" (rich/big business), subsidies for big, deadly corporations, cuts in social spending, ending environmental progress and consumer protection, accelerating climate change, and scapegoating and demeaning of welfare and social programs as "dependency", it ruined everything that it touched. Another crash like 1929 was inevitable, given the lax regulations of business and unleashed speculation of neo-liberal policy, followed under all presidents in varying degrees from Reagan to Trump, and under Republican power at all levels. Under the neo-liberal on steroids, Donald Trump, the federal government left the response to covid to states and individuals on the grounds that a federal big-government program was "tyranny." This did not work. So the covid crisis, the great recession, the racial unrest, the climate crisis, gun massacres, and gross inequality and health care debacles, are all the outcome of neo-liberal rule, mostly during the 3rd turning and extending into the 4th. Also, the neo-libs were often allied with the neo-cons, who were big on military spending and on starting unnecessary, expensive, deadly wars. Then there's the alt-right, another ally of neo-libs and neo-cons, and chief booster of Trump; bent on blaming immigrants, building national protective walls and spreading conspiracy theories. And the call for "law and order" is always available to right-wing demagogues.

I agree with all of this, well said. The 1T ended at the end of 1963/beginning of 1964 with the US (and the rest of the world) getting over JFK's assassination, if I could venture a guess, I would say that the Beatles visit to New York on February 7, 1964 was probably the official start of the Awakening (at least here in the US, it may have started just slightly earlier in the UK). I'm also pretty sure that according to Strauss and Howe, the 3T began with Reagan's infamous 'Morning in America' speech in his January 15, 1984 State of the Union address (his reelection seemed to be more a formality than anything else after that), and the 4T of course officially kicked off with the September 17, 2008 financial crash (with the pandemic hitting at the end of 2019/beginning of 2020 probably being the halfway point).


I'm not sure this is the best conversation/question for this particular thread (and I know we already discussed it privately, but it seems as good a topic as any to bring up on this forum), but when in 2029 would you say the 1T will most likely begin (based on astrology forecasts), and can you pinpoint exact dates (or at least rough estimates) on when the mood shifts into the next Awakening (I know you said it would be sometime in 2046), 3T, and 4T will occur in the upcoming saeculum?

In my book I said the June 2029 eclipse marks an onset of greater peace. But the whole year will still be full of climactic events. In the mid-2040s, there are several moments I see when movements break out. I don't know which one people will look back upon as the start of the 2T. I picked out the year 2066 for the next 3T, and it will be similarly enlongated like ours until 2090 when the next 4T arrives.

(05-05-2021, 01:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-03-2021, 06:00 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-03-2021, 01:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I mostly agree with Brower's descriptions of the turnings, but not the dates or all the names.

1946-1963 1st turning. It ended with JFK's assassination, not MLK's.

1964-1984 2nd turning. Ends only with Reagan's re-election and "morning in America." Before then the awakening mood persisted into Reagan's 1st term, even though it was getting sullen and less inspiring. Again, it should not be called the Boom Awakening. It was the Consciousness Revolution, in which all generations participated. That does not mean that all generations were listening to the music of the new pop counter-culture, of course. But the Awakening belongs to the mid-1960s and the LSD-driven counter-culture, the human potential/new age movements, and all the myriad social and political awakenings, with 1966 being the year when it exploded at greatest Richter-scale levels. Remember the explosive emerging of "black power" culture proclaimed by Stokely Carmichael and Floyd McKissick at the march against fear in June 1966, and the simultaneous founding of the National Organization for Women. Remember what secular millennials forget about the Strauss and Howe theory; that the concept of Awakenings are the periodic spiritual events that contrast with the secular crisis periods. The second turning was a Consciousness Revolution, of tremendous scale and significance, and primarily to do with cultural and spiritual awakenings. It is the only period in the cycle where substantial numbers of people, mostly young and middle aged, can change their worldviews. That is what happened in the 2nd turning of 1964-1984. Today's millennials often try to suppress this awakening through such media as wikipedia, pretending that the discoveries of this awakening were just a passing phase. They are not; they remain true and relevant.

1984-2008 3rd turning. The Fall of Communism fits in well with the "decadent," neo-liberal and "free-market" Reaganomics program of this turning. Only the resulting great crash and recession in 2008 was the existential threat that could have sent the USA and the world off a financial cliff that could have been fatal; not Katrina. Before about Nov. 2008, economists were still not ready even to call it a recession. But the crash precipitated by the fall of Lehman Brothers in Sept.2008 was the decisive event. Before that, cracks were appearing (mostly only since 2007, not 2005), but they were only cracks; the mood of the nation had not shifted at all. People at WAMU were still tipping wine classes and celebrating their big profits.

2008-2029 4th turning. We just passed the half way point. The recession lingered for most people because the Republicans blocked everything after the initial stimulus. Then Trump came along, and although recovery continued at a slower rate than during Obama's second term, Trump himself became the Crisis personified, including his mishandling of covid. The regeneracy has begun, timed with the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of Dec. 21, 2020, but the Republicans have put up huge walls, and are putting up more. The resistance to progress has not been broken. So the Crisis goes on.

Covid was the inevitable result, as was the 2008 crash, of the rule of neo-liberalism, installed with Reagan's election in Nov. 1980 and tax cuts in July 1981 (on the exact date of Jupiter-Saturn conjunction). Although the 20-year/40-year Jupiter-Saturn/Skowronek cycle played out with these events, and ending with Trump's fall, the Awakening mood continued after 1981 because Reagan was still unpopular and because the 1980 recession continued, and so did the 2nd turning in the 84-year saeculum/Uranus cycle. But once neo-liberalism became enthroned, with its "trickle-down economics" program of lower taxes and regulations on the "job creaters" (rich/big business), subsidies for big, deadly corporations, cuts in social spending, ending environmental progress and consumer protection, accelerating climate change, and scapegoating and demeaning of welfare and social programs as "dependency", it ruined everything that it touched. Another crash like 1929 was inevitable, given the lax regulations of business and unleashed speculation of neo-liberal policy, followed under all presidents in varying degrees from Reagan to Trump, and under Republican power at all levels. Under the neo-liberal on steroids, Donald Trump, the federal government left the response to covid to states and individuals on the grounds that a federal big-government program was "tyranny." This did not work. So the covid crisis, the great recession, the racial unrest, the climate crisis, gun massacres, and gross inequality and health care debacles, are all the outcome of neo-liberal rule, mostly during the 3rd turning and extending into the 4th. Also, the neo-libs were often allied with the neo-cons, who were big on military spending and on starting unnecessary, expensive, deadly wars. Then there's the alt-right, another ally of neo-libs and neo-cons, and chief booster of Trump; bent on blaming immigrants, building national protective walls and spreading conspiracy theories. And the call for "law and order" is always available to right-wing demagogues.

I agree with all of this, well said. The 1T ended at the end of 1963/beginning of 1964 with the US (and the rest of the world) getting over JFK's assassination, if I could venture a guess, I would say that the Beatles visit to New York on February 7, 1964 was probably the official start of the Awakening (at least here in the US, it may have started just slightly earlier in the UK). I'm also pretty sure that according to Strauss and Howe, the 3T began with Reagan's infamous 'Morning in America' speech in his January 15, 1984 State of the Union address (his reelection seemed to be more a formality than anything else after that), and the 4T of course officially kicked off with the September 17, 2008 financial crash (with the pandemic hitting at the end of 2019/beginning of 2020 probably being the halfway point).


I'm not sure this is the best conversation/question for this particular thread (and I know we already discussed it privately, but it seems as good a topic as any to bring up on this forum), but when in 2029 would you say the 1T will most likely begin (based on astrology forecasts), and can you pinpoint exact dates (or at least rough estimates) on when the mood shifts into the next Awakening (I know you said it would be sometime in 2046), 3T, and 4T will occur in the upcoming saeculum?

In my book I said the June 2029 eclipse marks an onset of greater peace. But the whole year will still be full of climactic events. In the mid-2040s, there are several moments I see when movements break out. I don't know which one people will look back upon as the start of the 2T. I picked out the year 2066 for the next 3T, and it will be similarly enlongated like ours until 2090 when the next 4T arrives.

Now that I know about S&H and the Fourth Turning (I only learned all this about a year ago), it will certainly be interesting to see how things unfold in the new saeculum (providing I live long enough). S&H themselves said Pepperland would return, could that mean the next Awakening will arrive with a new Beattles? I also wonder what events will kick off the next 3T and 4T in 2066 and 2090 respectively?

(05-05-2021, 02:42 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2021, 01:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-03-2021, 06:00 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-03-2021, 01:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I mostly agree with Brower's descriptions of the turnings, but not the dates or all the names.

1946-1963 1st turning. It ended with JFK's assassination, not MLK's.

1964-1984 2nd turning. Ends only with Reagan's re-election and "morning in America." Before then the awakening mood persisted into Reagan's 1st term, even though it was getting sullen and less inspiring. Again, it should not be called the Boom Awakening. It was the Consciousness Revolution, in which all generations participated. That does not mean that all generations were listening to the music of the new pop counter-culture, of course. But the Awakening belongs to the mid-1960s and the LSD-driven counter-culture, the human potential/new age movements, and all the myriad social and political awakenings, with 1966 being the year when it exploded at greatest Richter-scale levels. Remember the explosive emerging of "black power" culture proclaimed by Stokely Carmichael and Floyd McKissick at the march against fear in June 1966, and the simultaneous founding of the National Organization for Women. Remember what secular millennials forget about the Strauss and Howe theory; that the concept of Awakenings are the periodic spiritual events that contrast with the secular crisis periods. The second turning was a Consciousness Revolution, of tremendous scale and significance, and primarily to do with cultural and spiritual awakenings. It is the only period in the cycle where substantial numbers of people, mostly young and middle aged, can change their worldviews. That is what happened in the 2nd turning of 1964-1984. Today's millennials often try to suppress this awakening through such media as wikipedia, pretending that the discoveries of this awakening were just a passing phase. They are not; they remain true and relevant.

1984-2008 3rd turning. The Fall of Communism fits in well with the "decadent," neo-liberal and "free-market" Reaganomics program of this turning. Only the resulting great crash and recession in 2008 was the existential threat that could have sent the USA and the world off a financial cliff that could have been fatal; not Katrina. Before about Nov. 2008, economists were still not ready even to call it a recession. But the crash precipitated by the fall of Lehman Brothers in Sept.2008 was the decisive event. Before that, cracks were appearing (mostly only since 2007, not 2005), but they were only cracks; the mood of the nation had not shifted at all. People at WAMU were still tipping wine classes and celebrating their big profits.

2008-2029 4th turning. We just passed the half way point. The recession lingered for most people because the Republicans blocked everything after the initial stimulus. Then Trump came along, and although recovery continued at a slower rate than during Obama's second term, Trump himself became the Crisis personified, including his mishandling of covid. The regeneracy has begun, timed with the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of Dec. 21, 2020, but the Republicans have put up huge walls, and are putting up more. The resistance to progress has not been broken. So the Crisis goes on.

Covid was the inevitable result, as was the 2008 crash, of the rule of neo-liberalism, installed with Reagan's election in Nov. 1980 and tax cuts in July 1981 (on the exact date of Jupiter-Saturn conjunction). Although the 20-year/40-year Jupiter-Saturn/Skowronek cycle played out with these events, and ending with Trump's fall, the Awakening mood continued after 1981 because Reagan was still unpopular and because the 1980 recession continued, and so did the 2nd turning in the 84-year saeculum/Uranus cycle. But once neo-liberalism became enthroned, with its "trickle-down economics" program of lower taxes and regulations on the "job creaters" (rich/big business), subsidies for big, deadly corporations, cuts in social spending, ending environmental progress and consumer protection, accelerating climate change, and scapegoating and demeaning of welfare and social programs as "dependency", it ruined everything that it touched. Another crash like 1929 was inevitable, given the lax regulations of business and unleashed speculation of neo-liberal policy, followed under all presidents in varying degrees from Reagan to Trump, and under Republican power at all levels. Under the neo-liberal on steroids, Donald Trump, the federal government left the response to covid to states and individuals on the grounds that a federal big-government program was "tyranny." This did not work. So the covid crisis, the great recession, the racial unrest, the climate crisis, gun massacres, and gross inequality and health care debacles, are all the outcome of neo-liberal rule, mostly during the 3rd turning and extending into the 4th. Also, the neo-libs were often allied with the neo-cons, who were big on military spending and on starting unnecessary, expensive, deadly wars. Then there's the alt-right, another ally of neo-libs and neo-cons, and chief booster of Trump; bent on blaming immigrants, building national protective walls and spreading conspiracy theories. And the call for "law and order" is always available to right-wing demagogues.

I agree with all of this, well said. The 1T ended at the end of 1963/beginning of 1964 with the US (and the rest of the world) getting over JFK's assassination, if I could venture a guess, I would say that the Beatles visit to New York on February 7, 1964 was probably the official start of the Awakening (at least here in the US, it may have started just slightly earlier in the UK). I'm also pretty sure that according to Strauss and Howe, the 3T began with Reagan's infamous 'Morning in America' speech in his January 15, 1984 State of the Union address (his reelection seemed to be more a formality than anything else after that), and the 4T of course officially kicked off with the September 17, 2008 financial crash (with the pandemic hitting at the end of 2019/beginning of 2020 probably being the halfway point).


I'm not sure this is the best conversation/question for this particular thread (and I know we already discussed it privately, but it seems as good a topic as any to bring up on this forum), but when in 2029 would you say the 1T will most likely begin (based on astrology forecasts), and can you pinpoint exact dates (or at least rough estimates) on when the mood shifts into the next Awakening (I know you said it would be sometime in 2046), 3T, and 4T will occur in the upcoming saeculum?

In my book I said the June 2029 eclipse marks an onset of greater peace. But the whole year will still be full of climactic events. In the mid-2040s, there are several moments I see when movements break out. I don't know which one people will look back upon as the start of the 2T. I picked out the year 2066 for the next 3T, and it will be similarly enlongated like ours until 2090 when the next 4T arrives.

Now that I know about S&H and the Fourth Turning (I only learned all this about a year ago), it will certainly be interesting to see how things unfold in the new saeculum (providing I live long enough). S&H themselves said Pepperland would return, could that mean the next Awakening will arrive with a new Beatles? I also wonder what events will kick off the next 3T and 4T in 2066 and 2090 respectively?

I don't know just what events will lead us into a third turning around 2066. What I wrote was that, unlike 1984, there could be a lot of progressive trends swirling around that year, and they could be green. The climate crisis will still be causing lots of floods. But there could also be a tax revolt and a "green scare." The square of Neptune and Pluto of that era signifies a lot of disillusion and decadence will characterize the 2060s. In general, the basic historical parallel to the times of circa 2066 is to the 1890s and early 1900s, and the 1970s and 80s come to mind as well. As for 2090, as is usually the case in our large and varied society, there will be lots of varied trends. But I think in 2090 and 2092-93 there will be a cyber-crisis and an economic crisis that will dampen the mood, and focus the people on more practical and civic concerns and on helping the less fortunate, probably similar to the 1930s (Neptune in Virgo, as then). Populist tyranny could make a comeback during this 4T. The recession or depression won't be as deep as in the 1930s though, or long-lasting. There will be an upswing soon that moves us toward an expansive era. In 4Ts a great war can't be ruled out, circa 2110. It depends on our level of social and spiritual evolution. There could be a disruptive and far-reaching revolution too (Uranus conjunct Pluto, circa 2104). A lot of Earth rebuilding could be done. But by the 2090s, the information age, although still dominant in many ways, will be less focused on tech progress. The era might even be called "the end of progress." It looks to me like some sudden computer crash in June 2090 will cause a lot of information age infrastructure and a lot of interest in technology to collapse.

Did you get my book yet? I can't write my book here, but you can get it and read it

As for the next 3T, its beginning could be low key, even subtle. We saw this with the last, recently completed 3T.

As for the projected Crisis of 2100, it is likely to be much more intense than what this one has so far turned out to be. I say this because most 4Ts I have seen listed have been very intense. Relatively mild 4Ts are distinctly a minority of the cases.

Early 22nd century.....

Eric, do you think that the projected Crisis of 2100 may end around 2110? If so, the subsequent 2T would start around 2128/2130, and probably last to around 2148/2150.

(05-07-2021, 09:35 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: [ -> ]Early 22nd century.....

Eric, do you think that the projected Crisis of 2100 may end around 2110?  If so, the subsequent 2T would start around 2128/2130, and probably last to around 2148/2150.

Whoa!  S&H identified a repeating pattern, but that doesn't equate with a timer.  There is no greater chance that we can accurately predict events that far out than we can predict the weather two years from today.  There are always unexpected events that change the pattern slightly (or not so slightly), and extend or compress the timeline.  Yes, the pattern will be there, but the rest is just ungrounded speculation.

Based on known threats and more near-term predictions that will have real effects, we can guess.  For example, the current projected timeline for AI achieving human level intellectual capacity is 20-30 years.  After that, the machines will continue to advance. Where is that in anyone's calculus today?

(05-07-2021, 09:35 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: [ -> ]Early 22nd century.....

Eric, do you think that the projected Crisis of 2100 may end around 2110?  If so, the subsequent 2T would start around 2128/2130, and probably last to around 2148/2150.

That's possible. Exact dates are hard to predict for the saeculum, but if it follows the planetary cyclic pattern, then we'll know more or less. Just what the generations will be like, we can't say for certain, or completely. People make history, and history makes people in turn. That's the principle. 

If our current 4T extends through 2029, as Neil Howe says and the planets seem to indicate, then the 2T outbreak could be delayed to 2047, and that could also delay the onset of the 3T to 2067. But Uranus-Pluto conjunctions and oppositions can't be avoided in what they predict, so the 2T will not be delayed past 2047. As I see it, the same kind of interaction between people and history also applies to the interaction between people and the cycles of our larger being; we change and extend their meanings as we discover them, just as much as they time events and changes within us and society.

We can hope that over the next two centuries, Americans and people of the world will evolve and progress in some positive way; technologically, socially and/or spiritually/artistically. But especially in 3rd and 4th turnings, people can go backwards too in some ways, as we have seen socially in our recent and current ones. If wars, especially great world wars, become obsolete, then that will change the nature of the turnings too. 

Since the age of "enlightenment and progress" began in the 18th century, participation in the saeculum was increasingly extended to vastly more people, and that intensified the cyclic "storm" and speeded progress up from about 100 years to about 84. A stronger "eye" appeared in this hurricane. The discovery of the outer invisible planets coincided with the gradual extension of this progress, and especially with discovery in 1781, in the time of Revolution, of Uranus, whose orbital period is 84 years. The other two invisible planets Neptune (discovered 1846) and Pluto (discovered 1930; with its partner Charon discovered in 1978, and its entire Kuiper Belt discovered in circa 1993) have slightly less than 2 times and 3 times that orbital length respectively.

Our second turnings in America have become increasingly less tied to traditional religious institutions. Some say that will be reversed, but I say it will continue. That is called the "new age movement." Awakenings to a large extent take up from where they left off during the previous one, and skip along from 2T to 2T. Their revelations and discoveries have been forgotten, as they have largely been this time, and so need to be recovered again in the next 2T, because we are a largely materialist and/or tradition-bound culture. Pepperland will return, and I hope to hear what the next "Tomorrow Never Knows" track, the ultimate 2T awakening piece, will be.

To listen to Tomorrow Never Knows, released in August 1966, is to hear the Awakening pierce through the morning fog and arouse the people, both to inner discovery of within, and to cultural and social movements among us. It was the alarm bell!

I have seen projections for climate change in the latter part of the 21st century, and I notice the expansion of deserts and semi-deserts. Parts of the Balkans and central Europe that fall within Cfa (most lower elevations of Bulgaria and Serbia), Cfb (Germany, largely), Dfa (lower elevations in Hungary and Romania), and Dfb become steppe comparable to American short-grass prairie. To put a long story short, tall-grass prairie such as most of north-central Illinois and eastern Nebraska are well-suited for agriculture. Short-grass prairie is too dry for crop-growing without irrigation.

Global warming, if unabated, will make food supplies much less reliable than they now are... and when that happens, Humanity is in deep trouble... with riots, revolutions, pogroms, and wars. Humanity will be wise to embrace Zero Population Growth before then even without global warming, but with global warming it will need 'negative population growth'. Political institutions implode when food supplies become unreliable. Don't believe me? Once the German Army had control of the breadbasket of the Russian Empire in 1917, food riots erupted and toppled the Tsar. People can tolerate many hardships well -- but not hunger.

(05-07-2021, 05:09 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]I have seen projections for climate change in the latter part of the 21st century, and I notice the expansion of deserts and semi-deserts. Parts of the Balkans and central Europe that fall within  Cfa (most lower elevations of Bulgaria and Serbia), Cfb (Germany, largely), Dfa (lower elevations in Hungary and Romania), and Dfb  become steppe comparable to American short-grass prairie. To put a long story short, tall-grass prairie such as most of north-central Illinois and eastern Nebraska are well-suited for agriculture. Short-grass prairie is too dry for crop-growing without irrigation.

Global warming, if unabated, will make food supplies much less reliable than they now are... and when that happens, Humanity is in deep trouble... with riots, revolutions, pogroms, and wars. Humanity will be wise to embrace Zero Population Growth before then even without global warming, but with global warming it will need 'negative population growth'. Political institutions implode when food supplies become unreliable. Don't believe me? Once the German Army had control of the breadbasket of the Russian Empire in 1917, food riots erupted and toppled the Tsar. People can tolerate many hardships well -- but not hunger.

According to Worldometer, TFR appears to be falling at a rate of 0.1 per decade since 2000 and stands at 2.5 now. If the trend continues (unlikely unless the pandemic & other events will have a bigger impact in the coming years), TFR will continue to fall at a lower rate & we won't reach ZPG until closer to 2100. If it fell at the same rates it was from 1990 to 2000, we would be on track to hit ZPG way sooner than end of this century.

TFR = Total fertility rate??

fertility rate map

(05-07-2021, 05:14 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2021, 02:42 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2021, 01:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-03-2021, 06:00 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-03-2021, 01:48 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]I mostly agree with Brower's descriptions of the turnings, but not the dates or all the names.

1946-1963 1st turning. It ended with JFK's assassination, not MLK's.

1964-1984 2nd turning. Ends only with Reagan's re-election and "morning in America." Before then the awakening mood persisted into Reagan's 1st term, even though it was getting sullen and less inspiring. Again, it should not be called the Boom Awakening. It was the Consciousness Revolution, in which all generations participated. That does not mean that all generations were listening to the music of the new pop counter-culture, of course. But the Awakening belongs to the mid-1960s and the LSD-driven counter-culture, the human potential/new age movements, and all the myriad social and political awakenings, with 1966 being the year when it exploded at greatest Richter-scale levels. Remember the explosive emerging of "black power" culture proclaimed by Stokely Carmichael and Floyd McKissick at the march against fear in June 1966, and the simultaneous founding of the National Organization for Women. Remember what secular millennials forget about the Strauss and Howe theory; that the concept of Awakenings are the periodic spiritual events that contrast with the secular crisis periods. The second turning was a Consciousness Revolution, of tremendous scale and significance, and primarily to do with cultural and spiritual awakenings. It is the only period in the cycle where substantial numbers of people, mostly young and middle aged, can change their worldviews. That is what happened in the 2nd turning of 1964-1984. Today's millennials often try to suppress this awakening through such media as wikipedia, pretending that the discoveries of this awakening were just a passing phase. They are not; they remain true and relevant.

1984-2008 3rd turning. The Fall of Communism fits in well with the "decadent," neo-liberal and "free-market" Reaganomics program of this turning. Only the resulting great crash and recession in 2008 was the existential threat that could have sent the USA and the world off a financial cliff that could have been fatal; not Katrina. Before about Nov. 2008, economists were still not ready even to call it a recession. But the crash precipitated by the fall of Lehman Brothers in Sept.2008 was the decisive event. Before that, cracks were appearing (mostly only since 2007, not 2005), but they were only cracks; the mood of the nation had not shifted at all. People at WAMU were still tipping wine classes and celebrating their big profits.

2008-2029 4th turning. We just passed the half way point. The recession lingered for most people because the Republicans blocked everything after the initial stimulus. Then Trump came along, and although recovery continued at a slower rate than during Obama's second term, Trump himself became the Crisis personified, including his mishandling of covid. The regeneracy has begun, timed with the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of Dec. 21, 2020, but the Republicans have put up huge walls, and are putting up more. The resistance to progress has not been broken. So the Crisis goes on.

Covid was the inevitable result, as was the 2008 crash, of the rule of neo-liberalism, installed with Reagan's election in Nov. 1980 and tax cuts in July 1981 (on the exact date of Jupiter-Saturn conjunction). Although the 20-year/40-year Jupiter-Saturn/Skowronek cycle played out with these events, and ending with Trump's fall, the Awakening mood continued after 1981 because Reagan was still unpopular and because the 1980 recession continued, and so did the 2nd turning in the 84-year saeculum/Uranus cycle. But once neo-liberalism became enthroned, with its "trickle-down economics" program of lower taxes and regulations on the "job creaters" (rich/big business), subsidies for big, deadly corporations, cuts in social spending, ending environmental progress and consumer protection, accelerating climate change, and scapegoating and demeaning of welfare and social programs as "dependency", it ruined everything that it touched. Another crash like 1929 was inevitable, given the lax regulations of business and unleashed speculation of neo-liberal policy, followed under all presidents in varying degrees from Reagan to Trump, and under Republican power at all levels. Under the neo-liberal on steroids, Donald Trump, the federal government left the response to covid to states and individuals on the grounds that a federal big-government program was "tyranny." This did not work. So the covid crisis, the great recession, the racial unrest, the climate crisis, gun massacres, and gross inequality and health care debacles, are all the outcome of neo-liberal rule, mostly during the 3rd turning and extending into the 4th. Also, the neo-libs were often allied with the neo-cons, who were big on military spending and on starting unnecessary, expensive, deadly wars. Then there's the alt-right, another ally of neo-libs and neo-cons, and chief booster of Trump; bent on blaming immigrants, building national protective walls and spreading conspiracy theories. And the call for "law and order" is always available to right-wing demagogues.

I agree with all of this, well said. The 1T ended at the end of 1963/beginning of 1964 with the US (and the rest of the world) getting over JFK's assassination, if I could venture a guess, I would say that the Beatles visit to New York on February 7, 1964 was probably the official start of the Awakening (at least here in the US, it may have started just slightly earlier in the UK). I'm also pretty sure that according to Strauss and Howe, the 3T began with Reagan's infamous 'Morning in America' speech in his January 15, 1984 State of the Union address (his reelection seemed to be more a formality than anything else after that), and the 4T of course officially kicked off with the September 17, 2008 financial crash (with the pandemic hitting at the end of 2019/beginning of 2020 probably being the halfway point).


I'm not sure this is the best conversation/question for this particular thread (and I know we already discussed it privately, but it seems as good a topic as any to bring up on this forum), but when in 2029 would you say the 1T will most likely begin (based on astrology forecasts), and can you pinpoint exact dates (or at least rough estimates) on when the mood shifts into the next Awakening (I know you said it would be sometime in 2046), 3T, and 4T will occur in the upcoming saeculum?

In my book I said the June 2029 eclipse marks an onset of greater peace. But the whole year will still be full of climactic events. In the mid-2040s, there are several moments I see when movements break out. I don't know which one people will look back upon as the start of the 2T. I picked out the year 2066 for the next 3T, and it will be similarly enlongated like ours until 2090 when the next 4T arrives.

Now that I know about S&H and the Fourth Turning (I only learned all this about a year ago), it will certainly be interesting to see how things unfold in the new saeculum (providing I live long enough). S&H themselves said Pepperland would return, could that mean the next Awakening will arrive with a new Beatles? I also wonder what events will kick off the next 3T and 4T in 2066 and 2090 respectively?

I don't know just what events will lead us into a third turning around 2066. What I wrote was that, unlike 1984, there could be a lot of progressive trends swirling around that year, and they could be green. The climate crisis will still be causing lots of floods. But there could also be a tax revolt and a "green scare." The square of Neptune and Pluto of that era signifies a lot of disillusion and decadence will characterize the 2060s. In general, the basic historical parallel to the times of circa 2066 is to the 1890s and early 1900s, and the 1970s and 80s come to mind as well. As for 2090, as is usually the case in our large and varied society, there will be lots of varied trends. But I think in 2090 and 2092-93 there will be a cyber-crisis and an economic crisis that will dampen the mood, and focus the people on more practical and civic concerns and on helping the less fortunate, probably similar to the 1930s (Neptune in Virgo, as then). Populist tyranny could make a comeback during this 4T. The recession or depression won't be as deep as in the 1930s though, or long-lasting. There will be an upswing soon that moves us toward an expansive era. In 4Ts a great war can't be ruled out, circa 2110. It depends on our level of social and spiritual evolution. There could be a disruptive and far-reaching revolution too (Uranus conjunct Pluto, circa 2104). A lot of Earth rebuilding could be done. But by the 2090s, the information age, although still dominant in many ways, will be less focused on tech progress. The era might even be called "the end of progress." It looks to me like some sudden computer crash in June 2090 will cause a lot of information age infrastructure and a lot of interest in technology to collapse.

Did you get my book yet? I can't write my book here, but you can get it and read it

Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?

No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).

This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since N&H got most of the dates the turnings occured in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the  conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?

(05-09-2021, 12:34 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?

No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).

This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since S&H got most of the dates the turnings occurred in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the  conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?

My book is also available as an e-book for less money; quite a bargain really

Did you get those dates for the 1794-1865 saeculum turnings from me? In any case, those are the dates I chose too. Some people like Chas Donald have said that the saeculum should be seen as starting in the 1780s, smoothing out the dates so this and the previous saeculum have a similar length. I suppose it will always be a bit uncertain. I see that 1794-1865 saeculum as one in which the civil war enabled the saeculum to go entirely modern and faster by reducing the power of the left-over medieval southern section that held it back. Alas, a lot of its backward ways continued after Reconstruction, and still do today; thus again we have a cold civil war.

There were indeed some hard aspects and a Mars-Pluto conjunction going on the day the Titanic sunk, but I don't look upon it as very historic in the sense of influencing moods and trends; more of an isolated event. The early part of that 3T did have some very powerful and tense cosmic squares among the slow, gigantic planets, quite "titanic" in fact, which presaged what was coming, and coincided with the Bosnian Crisis in October 1908 that was the direct start of the sequence of events that exploded into war in 1914. In the early 3T, as in the early part of the most recent one, the Awakening cultural trends continued, but got more frantic in 1908-1914, and all the trends were like a spiral of increasing intensity that led to the explosion, which itself broke the back of the great modern new beginning of circa 1892 and the 2T and left disillusion in its wake. Still, some aspects of our new global civilization continued to develop. We can't seem to get traction though, even today. We still live in cynicism and materialism despite the amazing opportunities, tools and knowledge available to us.

(05-09-2021, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 12:34 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?

No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).

This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since S&H got most of the dates the turnings occurred in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the  conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?

My book is also available as an e-book for less money; quite a bargain really

Did you get those dates for the 1794-1865 saeculum turnings from me? In any case, those are the dates I chose too. Some people like Chas Donald have said that the saeculum should be seen as starting in the 1780s, smoothing out the dates so this and the previous saeculum have a similar length. I suppose it will always be a bit uncertain. I see that 1794-1865 saeculum as one in which the civil war enabled the saeculum to go entirely modern and faster by reducing the power of the left-over medieval southern section that held it back. Alas, a lot of its backward ways continued after Reconstruction, and still do today; thus again we have a cold civil war.

There were indeed some hard aspects and a Mars-Pluto conjunction going on the day the Titanic sunk, but I don't look upon it as very historic in the sense of influencing moods and trends; more of an isolated event. The early part of that 3T did have some very powerful and tense cosmic squares among the slow, gigantic planets, quite "titanic" in fact, which presaged what was coming, and coincided with the Bosnian Crisis in October 1908 that was the direct start of the sequence of events that exploded into war in 1914. In the early 3T, as in the early part of the most recent one, the Awakening cultural trends continued, but got more frantic in 1908-1914, and all the trends were like a spiral of increasing intensity that led to the explosion, which itself broke the back of the great modern new beginning of circa 1892 and the 2T and left disillusion in its wake. Still, some aspects of our new global civilization continued to develop. We can't seem to get traction though, even today. We still live in cynicism and materialism despite the amazing opportunities, tools and knowledge available to us.

Yes, I did indeed get the dates for the Civil War saeculum from you. Yeah, I suppose the events that sped up the events of that cycle will always be somewhat of a mystery (one thing I think we can both agree on is that it didn't happen exactly the way S&H said/believe it did). What would you say caused the mood shifts in 1815, 1834, and 1850 (I know the Mexican War had a lot to with it, but I can't think of what more there could have been to it other than the mixing/speeding up of generations), and how would you describe the 1815-1821 years of the Awakening that S&H left out, did social movements break out long before 1822? What about the 1834-1843 years of the Sectionalism 3T before the Mexican War broke out, was the 'almighty dollar' commercialism and western 'golf fever' era materializing during that time (the only thing I know for sure is that the gold rush in California didn't happen until toward the end of the 3T in 1848), what about the Whitmanesque self-worship era S&H briefly mentioned? I can definitely see the historical parallels to the 2010s in the 1850s, though I still can't figure out why S&H believed it was a 3T decade instead of a 4T one.

I agree about the Titanic only being an isolated event (I never thought it caused/started the 3T if that's what you mean), the infamous space crash of Challenger in January 1986 (I forgot what conjunction you said was out that night) seems to be the historical parallel to the Titanic in our saeculum, but I could be wrong. I also think S&H (at least, in their own way) said that things don't always happen in the same exact order in the turnings (even if the turnings themselves always happen in the same order) it always felt to me that the 1990s (rather than the 2000s) was our historical parallel to the Roaring Twenties (S&H themselves noted a lot of parallels/similarities between the 1920s and 1990s), in which case (at least, based on what I've been able to read in your book so far) the 2080s seem to be the parallel in the next 3T (while the sectionalism/gold rush fever seems to be the likely parallel of the 1794-1865 parallel, even though I'm still not entirely clear when between the 1820s-1840s that was). The 'war on terror' of the 2000s (which is finally coming to an end) seems to be our parallel to WW1, while the Mexican War in the late 1840s seems the obvious parallel of the 1794-1865 cycle, with the possible upcoming violence of the 2070s being the logical parallel in the next saeculum (you said it might even take until then for us to fully curb our current gun culture/obsession). Again, I can be reading too much into this, feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong.

Avoiding a disconnected comment in this interesting conversation, let me offer a suggestion: the emerging Industrial Age in the first half of the 19th century as a massive destabilizer. The effects seem mundane today, but certainly not then. More to the point, that paradigm change triggered others that still ripple today.

(05-09-2021, 12:34 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-07-2021, 05:14 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2021, 02:42 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2021, 01:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-03-2021, 06:00 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with all of this, well said. The 1T ended at the end of 1963/beginning of 1964 with the US (and the rest of the world) getting over JFK's assassination, if I could venture a guess, I would say that the Beatles visit to New York on February 7, 1964 was probably the official start of the Awakening (at least here in the US, it may have started just slightly earlier in the UK). I'm also pretty sure that according to Strauss and Howe, the 3T began with Reagan's infamous 'Morning in America' speech in his January 15, 1984 State of the Union address (his reelection seemed to be more a formality than anything else after that), and the 4T of course officially kicked off with the September 17, 2008 financial crash (with the pandemic hitting at the end of 2019/beginning of 2020 probably being the halfway point).


I'm not sure this is the best conversation/question for this particular thread (and I know we already discussed it privately, but it seems as good a topic as any to bring up on this forum), but when in 2029 would you say the 1T will most likely begin (based on astrology forecasts), and can you pinpoint exact dates (or at least rough estimates) on when the mood shifts into the next Awakening (I know you said it would be sometime in 2046), 3T, and 4T will occur in the upcoming saeculum?

In my book I said the June 2029 eclipse marks an onset of greater peace. But the whole year will still be full of climactic events. In the mid-2040s, there are several moments I see when movements break out. I don't know which one people will look back upon as the start of the 2T. I picked out the year 2066 for the next 3T, and it will be similarly enlongated like ours until 2090 when the next 4T arrives.

Now that I know about S&H and the Fourth Turning (I only learned all this about a year ago), it will certainly be interesting to see how things unfold in the new saeculum (providing I live long enough). S&H themselves said Pepperland would return, could that mean the next Awakening will arrive with a new Beatles? I also wonder what events will kick off the next 3T and 4T in 2066 and 2090 respectively?

I don't know just what events will lead us into a third turning around 2066. What I wrote was that, unlike 1984, there could be a lot of progressive trends swirling around that year, and they could be green. The climate crisis will still be causing lots of floods. But there could also be a tax revolt and a "green scare." The square of Neptune and Pluto of that era signifies a lot of disillusion and decadence will characterize the 2060s. In general, the basic historical parallel to the times of circa 2066 is to the 1890s and early 1900s, and the 1970s and 80s come to mind as well. As for 2090, as is usually the case in our large and varied society, there will be lots of varied trends. But I think in 2090 and 2092-93 there will be a cyber-crisis and an economic crisis that will dampen the mood, and focus the people on more practical and civic concerns and on helping the less fortunate, probably similar to the 1930s (Neptune in Virgo, as then). Populist tyranny could make a comeback during this 4T. The recession or depression won't be as deep as in the 1930s though, or long-lasting. There will be an upswing soon that moves us toward an expansive era. In 4Ts a great war can't be ruled out, circa 2110. It depends on our level of social and spiritual evolution. There could be a disruptive and far-reaching revolution too (Uranus conjunct Pluto, circa 2104). A lot of Earth rebuilding could be done. But by the 2090s, the information age, although still dominant in many ways, will be less focused on tech progress. The era might even be called "the end of progress." It looks to me like some sudden computer crash in June 2090 will cause a lot of information age infrastructure and a lot of interest in technology to collapse.

Did you get my book yet? I can't write my book here, but you can get it and read it

Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?

No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).

This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since N&H got most of the dates the turnings occured in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the  conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?

Technology typically solves more problems than it causes. A dangerous technology has a tendency to either not be implemented or to appear, like the automobile, with needful regulation. Any technology (think or motion pictures, the telephone, radio, recorded music, or the automobile) can have cultural effects, and something like the birth-control poll can change sexual practices. So people have more sex and fewer babies. It's up to people to decide to not use a motor vehicle as a way to get to the a criminal opportunity or to use it to get away from the act... or to not use computers in scams.

The trick in Howe and Strauss theory is to separate coincidences from cause. I agree with Eric on much, but I do not get astrology. Astrophysics is far easier to understand, and should there be a nearby gamma-ray burst by astronomical standards, then we are literally cooked. There are patterns of intellectual life, politics, mass culture, labor-management relations, and wars. To put it in the crudest terms, a 3T is a time in which people collect oily rags, a 4T is a time when the oily rags do spontaneous combustion, a 1T is when people replace what is lost in the fires from spontaneous combustion of oily rags, and a 2T is a time in which people relax their guards against crazy ideas.

(05-09-2021, 04:17 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 12:34 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?

No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).

This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since S&H got most of the dates the turnings occurred in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the  conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?

My book is also available as an e-book for less money; quite a bargain really

Did you get those dates for the 1794-1865 saeculum turnings from me? In any case, those are the dates I chose too. Some people like Chas Donald have said that the saeculum should be seen as starting in the 1780s, smoothing out the dates so this and the previous saeculum have a similar length. I suppose it will always be a bit uncertain. I see that 1794-1865 saeculum as one in which the civil war enabled the saeculum to go entirely modern and faster by reducing the power of the left-over medieval southern section that held it back. Alas, a lot of its backward ways continued after Reconstruction, and still do today; thus again we have a cold civil war.

There were indeed some hard aspects and a Mars-Pluto conjunction going on the day the Titanic sunk, but I don't look upon it as very historic in the sense of influencing moods and trends; more of an isolated event. The early part of that 3T did have some very powerful and tense cosmic squares among the slow, gigantic planets, quite "titanic" in fact, which presaged what was coming, and coincided with the Bosnian Crisis in October 1908 that was the direct start of the sequence of events that exploded into war in 1914. In the early 3T, as in the early part of the most recent one, the Awakening cultural trends continued, but got more frantic in 1908-1914, and all the trends were like a spiral of increasing intensity that led to the explosion, which itself broke the back of the great modern new beginning of circa 1892 and the 2T and left disillusion in its wake. Still, some aspects of our new global civilization continued to develop. We can't seem to get traction though, even today. We still live in cynicism and materialism despite the amazing opportunities, tools and knowledge available to us.

Yes, I did indeed get the dates for the Civil War saeculum from you. Yeah, I suppose the events that sped up the events of that cycle will always be somewhat of a mystery (one thing I think we can both agree on is that it didn't happen exactly the way S&H said/believe it did). What would you say caused the mood shifts in 1815, 1834, and 1850 (I know the Mexican War had a lot to with it, but I can't think of what more there could have been to it other than the mixing/speeding up of generations), and how would you describe the 1815-1821 years of the Awakening that S&H left out, did social movements break out long before 1822? What about the 1834-1843 years of the Sectionalism 3T before the Mexican War broke out, was the 'almighty dollar' commercialism and western 'golf fever' era materializing during that time (the only thing I know for sure is that the gold rush in California didn't happen until toward the end of the 3T in 1848), what about the Whitmanesque self-worship era S&H briefly mentioned? I can definitely see the historical parallels to the 2010s in the 1850s, though I still can't figure out why S&H believed it was a 3T decade instead of a 4T one.

I agree about the Titanic only being an isolated event (I never thought it caused/started the 3T if that's what you mean), the infamous space crash of Challenger in January 1986 (I forgot what conjunction you said was out that night) seems to be the historical parallel to the Titanic in our saeculum, but I could be wrong. I also think S&H (at least, in their own way) said that things don't always happen in the same exact order in the turnings (even if the turnings themselves always happen in the same order) it always felt to me that the 1990s (rather than the 2000s) was our historical parallel to the Roaring Twenties (S&H themselves noted a lot of parallels/similarities between the 1920s and 1990s), in which case (at least, based on what I've been able to read in your book so far) the 2080s seem to be the parallel in the next 3T (while the sectionalism/gold rush fever seems to be the likely parallel of the 1794-1865 parallel, even though I'm still not entirely clear when between the 1820s-1840s that was). The 'war on terror' of the 2000s (which is finally coming to an end) seems to be our parallel to WW1, while the Mexican War in the late 1840s seems the obvious parallel of the 1794-1865 cycle, with the possible upcoming violence of the 2070s being the logical parallel in the next saeculum (you said it might even take until then for us to fully curb our current gun culture/obsession). Again, I can be reading too much into this, feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong.

I think the anti-slavery movement got going around 1815, although I'm not too clear on that right now. Religious awakenings date back to camp meetings as early as the first 1800 decade, while Joseph Smith's Mormon revelation happened in 1820, 2 years before the S&H date for starting the Awakening. In 1834, a defeat for the anti-slavery movement sent it into retreat, and Dixie got more organized.

Definitely, the early rush of industrialism and railroad speculation in the 1840s is the parallel to the roaring 20s, and to the high tech "dot-com boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s as well. Your Titanic/Challenger parallel seems a good one, and highlights the hubris of 3Ts. I don't remember the planetary correlates either right now, but what I may have mentioned was the Uranus flyby that was going on simultaneously to the Challenger accident. Your war parallels seem valid to me as well.

(05-23-2021, 02:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 04:17 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 12:34 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?

No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).

This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since S&H got most of the dates the turnings occurred in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the  conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?

My book is also available as an e-book for less money; quite a bargain really

Did you get those dates for the 1794-1865 saeculum turnings from me? In any case, those are the dates I chose too. Some people like Chas Donald have said that the saeculum should be seen as starting in the 1780s, smoothing out the dates so this and the previous saeculum have a similar length. I suppose it will always be a bit uncertain. I see that 1794-1865 saeculum as one in which the civil war enabled the saeculum to go entirely modern and faster by reducing the power of the left-over medieval southern section that held it back. Alas, a lot of its backward ways continued after Reconstruction, and still do today; thus again we have a cold civil war.

There were indeed some hard aspects and a Mars-Pluto conjunction going on the day the Titanic sunk, but I don't look upon it as very historic in the sense of influencing moods and trends; more of an isolated event. The early part of that 3T did have some very powerful and tense cosmic squares among the slow, gigantic planets, quite "titanic" in fact, which presaged what was coming, and coincided with the Bosnian Crisis in October 1908 that was the direct start of the sequence of events that exploded into war in 1914. In the early 3T, as in the early part of the most recent one, the Awakening cultural trends continued, but got more frantic in 1908-1914, and all the trends were like a spiral of increasing intensity that led to the explosion, which itself broke the back of the great modern new beginning of circa 1892 and the 2T and left disillusion in its wake. Still, some aspects of our new global civilization continued to develop. We can't seem to get traction though, even today. We still live in cynicism and materialism despite the amazing opportunities, tools and knowledge available to us.

Yes, I did indeed get the dates for the Civil War saeculum from you. Yeah, I suppose the events that sped up the events of that cycle will always be somewhat of a mystery (one thing I think we can both agree on is that it didn't happen exactly the way S&H said/believe it did). What would you say caused the mood shifts in 1815, 1834, and 1850 (I know the Mexican War had a lot to with it, but I can't think of what more there could have been to it other than the mixing/speeding up of generations), and how would you describe the 1815-1821 years of the Awakening that S&H left out, did social movements break out long before 1822? What about the 1834-1843 years of the Sectionalism 3T before the Mexican War broke out, was the 'almighty dollar' commercialism and western 'golf fever' era materializing during that time (the only thing I know for sure is that the gold rush in California didn't happen until toward the end of the 3T in 1848), what about the Whitmanesque self-worship era S&H briefly mentioned? I can definitely see the historical parallels to the 2010s in the 1850s, though I still can't figure out why S&H believed it was a 3T decade instead of a 4T one.

I agree about the Titanic only being an isolated event (I never thought it caused/started the 3T if that's what you mean), the infamous space crash of Challenger in January 1986 (I forgot what conjunction you said was out that night) seems to be the historical parallel to the Titanic in our saeculum, but I could be wrong. I also think S&H (at least, in their own way) said that things don't always happen in the same exact order in the turnings (even if the turnings themselves always happen in the same order) it always felt to me that the 1990s (rather than the 2000s) was our historical parallel to the Roaring Twenties (S&H themselves noted a lot of parallels/similarities between the 1920s and 1990s), in which case (at least, based on what I've been able to read in your book so far) the 2080s seem to be the parallel in the next 3T (while the sectionalism/gold rush fever seems to be the likely parallel of the 1794-1865 parallel, even though I'm still not entirely clear when between the 1820s-1840s that was). The 'war on terror' of the 2000s (which is finally coming to an end) seems to be our parallel to WW1, while the Mexican War in the late 1840s seems the obvious parallel of the 1794-1865 cycle, with the possible upcoming violence of the 2070s being the logical parallel in the next saeculum (you said it might even take until then for us to fully curb our current gun culture/obsession). Again, I can be reading too much into this, feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong.

I think the anti-slavery movement got going around 1815, although I'm not too clear on that right now. Religious awakenings date back to camp meetings as early as the first 1800 decade, while Joseph Smith's Mormon revelation happened in 1820, 2 years before the S&H date for starting the Awakening. In 1834, a defeat for the anti-slavery movement sent it into retreat, and Dixie got more organized.

Definitely, the early rush of industrialism and railroad speculation in the 1840s is the parallel to the roaring 20s, and to the high tech "dot-com boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s as well. Your Titanic/Challenger parallel seems a good one, and highlights the hubris of 3Ts. I don't remember the planetary correlates either right now, but what I may have mentioned was the Uranus flyby that was going on simultaneously to the Challenger accident. Your war parallels seem valid to me as well.

Yeah, most of the time I agree with S&H's dates for everything (exact generation end/start dates aside, LOL), but not the Civil War saeculum though, their dates for that one have always sounded suspect to me (for instance, the Transcendentals began to arrive in 1792, a full 30 years before S&H's start date for the Awakening, which really makes no sense at all). What would you say were the singular events that started (or caused) the 2T and 4T mood shifts in 1815 and 1850 respectively, was it just the end(s) of The War of 1812 and the Mexican War (and the Compromise of 1850), or was there more to it than that?

I believe you also said in your book that the 2070s would also be a turbulent decade, so if the 2060s parallels the 1890s/1900s and the 1970s/1980s, what would you say would be a good analogy/parallel to the 2070s? Also, if the 1840s is the parallel to the Roaring 20s in the Civil War saeculum, and the 1990s (and possibly the early 2000s) are the parallel in the Millennial saeculum, would you say the 'roaring decade' you described (in your book) for the 2080s will be the parallel for the next saeculum?

(06-16-2021, 07:39 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-23-2021, 02:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 04:17 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 12:34 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]Oh I'm sure we'll go too far with our current obsession with technology over the next 70 years (in fact, for the past decade or so, I thought we were already getting a bit too obsessed), after all the solutions offered in a 4T Crisis almost always lead to their own problems later on (usually in the next saeculum). Still, I hope some of the benefits/positive things about the Information Age will still be preserved into the next 1T and future saeculums, even when tech progress finally stops (I can still see the merit in Technology when it's actually used for a real purpose that benefits mankind, and not just for it's own sake). It's probably safe to assume the sudden computer crash in June 2090 will be the official mood shift into the 4T, yes (it certainly already feels like the historical parallel to both the crashes of 1929 and 2008)?

No, I haven't officially got your book yet (I have looked at various samples of it on Amazon, at least when they were available), but I still hope/plan to eventually. I just don't know yet if I'm actually going to buy it or just eventually on to e-books (if I did that, I would get access to all kinds of good books/literature).

This sounds like as good a thread as any to discuss this, but how much would say you know about previous saeculums? The reason I ask is I feel like S&H did a good job of describing the overall turnings (and generations) in them, they never bothered to go in quite as much detail about them as our own saeculum (though I suppose that's understandable as they didn't live in those times). Like, what would you say the overall eras/turnings of the Civil War and Great Power saeculums like and what caused the mood shifts in them? I feel like the summary for the 1794-1865 saeculum in particular could be a bit more coherent, especially since S&H got most of the dates the turnings occurred in it wrong (for instance, the 'Era of Good Feelings' era they talked about occurred after 1815, when the 1T was already much over). S&H's start date of 1822 leaves out seven whole years of the Awakening, and the 3T really should have began with the Manifest Destiny era circa 1834, while the onset of the 4T should have been the  conclusion of the Mexican War (and all the problems that caused) in 1850 (I mean, I know S&H describe the 1850s as a major 3T decade when really it was a 4T decade and they SHOULD have been talking about the 1840s). Also, how would you characterize the early part of the 1908-1929 3T before WW1 (it seems like an event as tragic as the Titanic in particular should have coincided with a major astrology conjunction)?

My book is also available as an e-book for less money; quite a bargain really

Did you get those dates for the 1794-1865 saeculum turnings from me? In any case, those are the dates I chose too. Some people like Chas Donald have said that the saeculum should be seen as starting in the 1780s, smoothing out the dates so this and the previous saeculum have a similar length. I suppose it will always be a bit uncertain. I see that 1794-1865 saeculum as one in which the civil war enabled the saeculum to go entirely modern and faster by reducing the power of the left-over medieval southern section that held it back. Alas, a lot of its backward ways continued after Reconstruction, and still do today; thus again we have a cold civil war.

There were indeed some hard aspects and a Mars-Pluto conjunction going on the day the Titanic sunk, but I don't look upon it as very historic in the sense of influencing moods and trends; more of an isolated event. The early part of that 3T did have some very powerful and tense cosmic squares among the slow, gigantic planets, quite "titanic" in fact, which presaged what was coming, and coincided with the Bosnian Crisis in October 1908 that was the direct start of the sequence of events that exploded into war in 1914. In the early 3T, as in the early part of the most recent one, the Awakening cultural trends continued, but got more frantic in 1908-1914, and all the trends were like a spiral of increasing intensity that led to the explosion, which itself broke the back of the great modern new beginning of circa 1892 and the 2T and left disillusion in its wake. Still, some aspects of our new global civilization continued to develop. We can't seem to get traction though, even today. We still live in cynicism and materialism despite the amazing opportunities, tools and knowledge available to us.

Yes, I did indeed get the dates for the Civil War saeculum from you. Yeah, I suppose the events that sped up the events of that cycle will always be somewhat of a mystery (one thing I think we can both agree on is that it didn't happen exactly the way S&H said/believe it did). What would you say caused the mood shifts in 1815, 1834, and 1850 (I know the Mexican War had a lot to with it, but I can't think of what more there could have been to it other than the mixing/speeding up of generations), and how would you describe the 1815-1821 years of the Awakening that S&H left out, did social movements break out long before 1822? What about the 1834-1843 years of the Sectionalism 3T before the Mexican War broke out, was the 'almighty dollar' commercialism and western 'golf fever' era materializing during that time (the only thing I know for sure is that the gold rush in California didn't happen until toward the end of the 3T in 1848), what about the Whitmanesque self-worship era S&H briefly mentioned? I can definitely see the historical parallels to the 2010s in the 1850s, though I still can't figure out why S&H believed it was a 3T decade instead of a 4T one.

I agree about the Titanic only being an isolated event (I never thought it caused/started the 3T if that's what you mean), the infamous space crash of Challenger in January 1986 (I forgot what conjunction you said was out that night) seems to be the historical parallel to the Titanic in our saeculum, but I could be wrong. I also think S&H (at least, in their own way) said that things don't always happen in the same exact order in the turnings (even if the turnings themselves always happen in the same order) it always felt to me that the 1990s (rather than the 2000s) was our historical parallel to the Roaring Twenties (S&H themselves noted a lot of parallels/similarities between the 1920s and 1990s), in which case (at least, based on what I've been able to read in your book so far) the 2080s seem to be the parallel in the next 3T (while the sectionalism/gold rush fever seems to be the likely parallel of the 1794-1865 parallel, even though I'm still not entirely clear when between the 1820s-1840s that was). The 'war on terror' of the 2000s (which is finally coming to an end) seems to be our parallel to WW1, while the Mexican War in the late 1840s seems the obvious parallel of the 1794-1865 cycle, with the possible upcoming violence of the 2070s being the logical parallel in the next saeculum (you said it might even take until then for us to fully curb our current gun culture/obsession). Again, I can be reading too much into this, feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong.

I think the anti-slavery movement got going around 1815, although I'm not too clear on that right now. Religious awakenings date back to camp meetings as early as the first 1800 decade, while Joseph Smith's Mormon revelation happened in 1820, 2 years before the S&H date for starting the Awakening. In 1834, a defeat for the anti-slavery movement sent it into retreat, and Dixie got more organized.

Definitely, the early rush of industrialism and railroad speculation in the 1840s is the parallel to the roaring 20s, and to the high tech "dot-com boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s as well. Your Titanic/Challenger parallel seems a good one, and highlights the hubris of 3Ts. I don't remember the planetary correlates either right now, but what I may have mentioned was the Uranus flyby that was going on simultaneously to the Challenger accident. Your war parallels seem valid to me as well.

Yeah, most of the time I agree with S&H's dates for everything (exact generation end/start dates aside, LOL), but not the Civil War saeculum though, their dates for that one have always sounded suspect to me (for instance, the Transcendentals began to arrive in 1792, a full 30 years before S&H's start date for the Awakening, which really makes no sense at all). What would you say were the singular events that started (or caused) the 2T and 4T mood shifts in 1815 and 1850 respectively, was it just the end(s) of The War of 1812 and the Mexican War (and the Compromise of 1850), or was there more to it than that?

I believe you also said in your book that the 2070s would also be a turbulent decade, so if the 2060s parallels the 1890s/1900s and the 1970s/1980s, what would you say would be a good analogy/parallel to the 2070s? Also, if the 1840s is the parallel to the Roaring 20s in the Civil War saeculum, and the 1990s (and possibly the early 2000s) are the parallel in the Millennial saeculum, would you say the 'roaring decade' you described (in your book) for the 2080s will be the parallel for the next saeculum?

Yes indeed. And the 2070s will definitely be 3T.

I'm not so sure about 1815, except it definitely was the Awakening start in Europe because of the renewal of liberal movements there, so some echo probably happened here, probably the start of the anti-slavery movement. And possibly some spiritualist or romantic trends. 

1850 is pretty clear. The compromise staved off a real danger of civil war breaking out. President Taylor was ready to "march and crush the traitors," but then he died. The end of the Mexican War made the battle to get more free or slave states uppermost. When Abraham Lincoln met "Uncle Tom's Cabin" author Harriet B. Stowe he told her, "so you're the little lady who made this big war". The book came out in 1851-52. It was a big deal. Then came the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854, and the battle was on.

(06-17-2021, 04:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 07:39 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-23-2021, 02:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 04:17 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]My book is also available as an e-book for less money; quite a bargain really

Did you get those dates for the 1794-1865 saeculum turnings from me? In any case, those are the dates I chose too. Some people like Chas Donald have said that the saeculum should be seen as starting in the 1780s, smoothing out the dates so this and the previous saeculum have a similar length. I suppose it will always be a bit uncertain. I see that 1794-1865 saeculum as one in which the civil war enabled the saeculum to go entirely modern and faster by reducing the power of the left-over medieval southern section that held it back. Alas, a lot of its backward ways continued after Reconstruction, and still do today; thus again we have a cold civil war.

There were indeed some hard aspects and a Mars-Pluto conjunction going on the day the Titanic sunk, but I don't look upon it as very historic in the sense of influencing moods and trends; more of an isolated event. The early part of that 3T did have some very powerful and tense cosmic squares among the slow, gigantic planets, quite "titanic" in fact, which presaged what was coming, and coincided with the Bosnian Crisis in October 1908 that was the direct start of the sequence of events that exploded into war in 1914. In the early 3T, as in the early part of the most recent one, the Awakening cultural trends continued, but got more frantic in 1908-1914, and all the trends were like a spiral of increasing intensity that led to the explosion, which itself broke the back of the great modern new beginning of circa 1892 and the 2T and left disillusion in its wake. Still, some aspects of our new global civilization continued to develop. We can't seem to get traction though, even today. We still live in cynicism and materialism despite the amazing opportunities, tools and knowledge available to us.

Yes, I did indeed get the dates for the Civil War saeculum from you. Yeah, I suppose the events that sped up the events of that cycle will always be somewhat of a mystery (one thing I think we can both agree on is that it didn't happen exactly the way S&H said/believe it did). What would you say caused the mood shifts in 1815, 1834, and 1850 (I know the Mexican War had a lot to with it, but I can't think of what more there could have been to it other than the mixing/speeding up of generations), and how would you describe the 1815-1821 years of the Awakening that S&H left out, did social movements break out long before 1822? What about the 1834-1843 years of the Sectionalism 3T before the Mexican War broke out, was the 'almighty dollar' commercialism and western 'golf fever' era materializing during that time (the only thing I know for sure is that the gold rush in California didn't happen until toward the end of the 3T in 1848), what about the Whitmanesque self-worship era S&H briefly mentioned? I can definitely see the historical parallels to the 2010s in the 1850s, though I still can't figure out why S&H believed it was a 3T decade instead of a 4T one.

I agree about the Titanic only being an isolated event (I never thought it caused/started the 3T if that's what you mean), the infamous space crash of Challenger in January 1986 (I forgot what conjunction you said was out that night) seems to be the historical parallel to the Titanic in our saeculum, but I could be wrong. I also think S&H (at least, in their own way) said that things don't always happen in the same exact order in the turnings (even if the turnings themselves always happen in the same order) it always felt to me that the 1990s (rather than the 2000s) was our historical parallel to the Roaring Twenties (S&H themselves noted a lot of parallels/similarities between the 1920s and 1990s), in which case (at least, based on what I've been able to read in your book so far) the 2080s seem to be the parallel in the next 3T (while the sectionalism/gold rush fever seems to be the likely parallel of the 1794-1865 parallel, even though I'm still not entirely clear when between the 1820s-1840s that was). The 'war on terror' of the 2000s (which is finally coming to an end) seems to be our parallel to WW1, while the Mexican War in the late 1840s seems the obvious parallel of the 1794-1865 cycle, with the possible upcoming violence of the 2070s being the logical parallel in the next saeculum (you said it might even take until then for us to fully curb our current gun culture/obsession). Again, I can be reading too much into this, feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong.

I think the anti-slavery movement got going around 1815, although I'm not too clear on that right now. Religious awakenings date back to camp meetings as early as the first 1800 decade, while Joseph Smith's Mormon revelation happened in 1820, 2 years before the S&H date for starting the Awakening. In 1834, a defeat for the anti-slavery movement sent it into retreat, and Dixie got more organized.

Definitely, the early rush of industrialism and railroad speculation in the 1840s is the parallel to the roaring 20s, and to the high tech "dot-com boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s as well. Your Titanic/Challenger parallel seems a good one, and highlights the hubris of 3Ts. I don't remember the planetary correlates either right now, but what I may have mentioned was the Uranus flyby that was going on simultaneously to the Challenger accident. Your war parallels seem valid to me as well.

Yeah, most of the time I agree with S&H's dates for everything (exact generation end/start dates aside, LOL), but not the Civil War saeculum though, their dates for that one have always sounded suspect to me (for instance, the Transcendentals began to arrive in 1792, a full 30 years before S&H's start date for the Awakening, which really makes no sense at all). What would you say were the singular events that started (or caused) the 2T and 4T mood shifts in 1815 and 1850 respectively, was it just the end(s) of The War of 1812 and the Mexican War (and the Compromise of 1850), or was there more to it than that?

I believe you also said in your book that the 2070s would also be a turbulent decade, so if the 2060s parallels the 1890s/1900s and the 1970s/1980s, what would you say would be a good analogy/parallel to the 2070s? Also, if the 1840s is the parallel to the Roaring 20s in the Civil War saeculum, and the 1990s (and possibly the early 2000s) are the parallel in the Millennial saeculum, would you say the 'roaring decade' you described (in your book) for the 2080s will be the parallel for the next saeculum?

Yes indeed. And the 2070s will definitely be 3T.

I'm not so sure about 1815, except it definitely was the Awakening start in Europe because of the renewal of liberal movements there, so some echo probably happened here, probably the start of the anti-slavery movement. And possibly some spiritualist or romantic trends. 

1850 is pretty clear. The compromise staved off a real danger of civil war breaking out. President Taylor was ready to "march and crush the traitors," but then he died. The end of the Mexican War made the battle to get more free or slave states uppermost. When Abraham Lincoln met "Uncle Tom's Cabin" author Harriet B. Stowe he told her, "so you're the little lady who made this big war". The book came out in 1851-52. It was a big deal. Then came the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854, and the battle was on.

What kinds of stuff might break out in the 2070s (I think you said in your book that there might be a second Teddy Roosevelt either in the late 1860s or the 1870s and that disease and guns might still sadly be a problem here in America, but on the brighter side there might be a watershed moment in 2074 comparable to Neil Armstrong landing on the moon in 1969)? What would you say might be a good historical analogy/parallel to that decade (in either the Civil War, Great Power, or Millennium saeculums)?

In your forecast, you said the 2080s would be a calmer (and probably more fun) decade, but still very 3T, correct? At any rate, it certainly sounds like it's gonna parallel the Roaring Twenties a lot, I think you said there might be a second prohibition era (if the double rhythm holds there, I see that working about as well as it did in the 1920s, LOL)? I think you also said the 2080s might actually make the Roaring Twenties look chaste in comparison (both culturally and in terms of loosening social mores)?

Yeah, I think you're right, there was already an anti-slavery movement here in America as early as 1815 (I think there might have even been a few seeds planted before that, but those were likely pre-Awakening early 1960s like events). I know S&H's name for the 1794-1815 1T doesn't work, as the supposed 'Era of Good Feelings' started in 1815 (when the 1T was already all but over and the Awakening was starting).

I'm a little embarrassed to admit this (especially on this forum), but I know next to nothing about President Taylor, what was he like? Was it his death that officially ended the 3T and started the 4T, or was it a little before or after that?

(06-18-2021, 02:20 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-17-2021, 04:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 07:39 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-23-2021, 02:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-09-2021, 04:17 AM)Dustinw5220 Wrote: [ -> ]Yes, I did indeed get the dates for the Civil War saeculum from you. Yeah, I suppose the events that sped up the events of that cycle will always be somewhat of a mystery (one thing I think we can both agree on is that it didn't happen exactly the way S&H said/believe it did). What would you say caused the mood shifts in 1815, 1834, and 1850 (I know the Mexican War had a lot to with it, but I can't think of what more there could have been to it other than the mixing/speeding up of generations), and how would you describe the 1815-1821 years of the Awakening that S&H left out, did social movements break out long before 1822? What about the 1834-1843 years of the Sectionalism 3T before the Mexican War broke out, was the 'almighty dollar' commercialism and western 'golf fever' era materializing during that time (the only thing I know for sure is that the gold rush in California didn't happen until toward the end of the 3T in 1848), what about the Whitmanesque self-worship era S&H briefly mentioned? I can definitely see the historical parallels to the 2010s in the 1850s, though I still can't figure out why S&H believed it was a 3T decade instead of a 4T one.

I agree about the Titanic only being an isolated event (I never thought it caused/started the 3T if that's what you mean), the infamous space crash of Challenger in January 1986 (I forgot what conjunction you said was out that night) seems to be the historical parallel to the Titanic in our saeculum, but I could be wrong. I also think S&H (at least, in their own way) said that things don't always happen in the same exact order in the turnings (even if the turnings themselves always happen in the same order) it always felt to me that the 1990s (rather than the 2000s) was our historical parallel to the Roaring Twenties (S&H themselves noted a lot of parallels/similarities between the 1920s and 1990s), in which case (at least, based on what I've been able to read in your book so far) the 2080s seem to be the parallel in the next 3T (while the sectionalism/gold rush fever seems to be the likely parallel of the 1794-1865 parallel, even though I'm still not entirely clear when between the 1820s-1840s that was). The 'war on terror' of the 2000s (which is finally coming to an end) seems to be our parallel to WW1, while the Mexican War in the late 1840s seems the obvious parallel of the 1794-1865 cycle, with the possible upcoming violence of the 2070s being the logical parallel in the next saeculum (you said it might even take until then for us to fully curb our current gun culture/obsession). Again, I can be reading too much into this, feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong.

I think the anti-slavery movement got going around 1815, although I'm not too clear on that right now. Religious awakenings date back to camp meetings as early as the first 1800 decade, while Joseph Smith's Mormon revelation happened in 1820, 2 years before the S&H date for starting the Awakening. In 1834, a defeat for the anti-slavery movement sent it into retreat, and Dixie got more organized.

Definitely, the early rush of industrialism and railroad speculation in the 1840s is the parallel to the roaring 20s, and to the high tech "dot-com boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s as well. Your Titanic/Challenger parallel seems a good one, and highlights the hubris of 3Ts. I don't remember the planetary correlates either right now, but what I may have mentioned was the Uranus flyby that was going on simultaneously to the Challenger accident. Your war parallels seem valid to me as well.

Yeah, most of the time I agree with S&H's dates for everything (exact generation end/start dates aside, LOL), but not the Civil War saeculum though, their dates for that one have always sounded suspect to me (for instance, the Transcendentals began to arrive in 1792, a full 30 years before S&H's start date for the Awakening, which really makes no sense at all). What would you say were the singular events that started (or caused) the 2T and 4T mood shifts in 1815 and 1850 respectively, was it just the end(s) of The War of 1812 and the Mexican War (and the Compromise of 1850), or was there more to it than that?

I believe you also said in your book that the 2070s would also be a turbulent decade, so if the 2060s parallels the 1890s/1900s and the 1970s/1980s, what would you say would be a good analogy/parallel to the 2070s? Also, if the 1840s is the parallel to the Roaring 20s in the Civil War saeculum, and the 1990s (and possibly the early 2000s) are the parallel in the Millennial saeculum, would you say the 'roaring decade' you described (in your book) for the 2080s will be the parallel for the next saeculum?

Yes indeed. And the 2070s will definitely be 3T.

I'm not so sure about 1815, except it definitely was the Awakening start in Europe because of the renewal of liberal movements there, so some echo probably happened here, probably the start of the anti-slavery movement. And possibly some spiritualist or romantic trends. 

1850 is pretty clear. The compromise staved off a real danger of civil war breaking out. President Taylor was ready to "march and crush the traitors," but then he died. The end of the Mexican War made the battle to get more free or slave states uppermost. When Abraham Lincoln met "Uncle Tom's Cabin" author Harriet B. Stowe he told her, "so you're the little lady who made this big war". The book came out in 1851-52. It was a big deal. Then came the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854, and the battle was on.

What kinds of stuff might break out in the 2070s (I think you said in your book that there might be a second Teddy Roosevelt either in the late 1860s or the 1870s and that disease and guns might still sadly be a problem here in America, but on the brighter side there might be a watershed moment in 2074 comparable to Neil Armstrong landing on the moon in 1969)? What would you say might be a good historical analogy/parallel to that decade (in either the Civil War, Great Power, or Millennium saeculums)?

In your forecast, you said the 2080s would be a calmer (and probably more fun) decade, but still very 3T, correct? At any rate, it certainly sounds like it's gonna parallel the Roaring Twenties a lot, I think you said there might be a second prohibition era (if the double rhythm holds there, I see that working about as well as it did in the 1920s, LOL)? I think you also said the 2080s might actually make the Roaring Twenties look chaste in comparison (both culturally and in terms of loosening social mores)?

Yeah, I think you're right, there was already an anti-slavery movement here in America as early as 1815 (I think there might have even been a few seeds planted before that, but those were likely pre-Awakening early 1960s like events). I know S&H's name for the 1794-1815 1T doesn't work, as the supposed 'Era of Good Feelings' started in 1815 (when the 1T was already all but over and the Awakening was starting).

I'm a little embarrassed to admit this (especially on this forum), but I know next to nothing about President Taylor, what was he like? Was it his death that officially ended the 3T and started the 4T, or was it a little before or after that?

I don't know; you might know more about my book than I do at this point   I am more focused on current events in this 4T right now. But that sounds right for the 2070s, and the best parallel will be the 1900s-1910s. But yes the 2080s will parallel the 1920s in their roar, but the early years will be very idealistic and progressive, quite different from other 3T decades.

Taylor was a victorious general in the Mexican War. The only two presidents elected by Whigs were old generals who didn't live out their terms (the other was W H Harrison in 1840). He was no liberal, but he was very irrascible. He was not given to compromise. I would say the controversy about whether states entering the union conquered in the Mexican War (especially good ol CA, and NM) would be slave or free, leading up to Taylor's threat to start a civil war, was the start of the 4T; the Compromise merely staved it off temporarily.