(10-20-2020, 08:58 AM)Marypoza Wrote: [ -> ]l have 2 admit l tend 2 agree w/the 1st 2 paragraphs. The only poll worth anything is the 1 taking place on Nov 3rd. These other polls can be manipulated by parsing the questions so that whoever's paying 4 the poll gets the results they paid 4. Also their sample sizes are ridiculously small- 1000 ppl or (usually) less out of a potential 150,000,000 voters. Those ppls can also be manipulated- 4 instance if l tell them l'm not a Dem they'll say "thank you" & click. *Likely voters* are the jokers of the pack- they may or may not show up 2 vote. Meanwhile Orange Thang has a rabid cult following that will turn out in a blizzard 2 vote 4 him- if they think he's *behind* they will double down & get everybody they know & then some 2 turn out & vote 4 their gawd. ln fact l think those fake polls & media hype actually help the Orange Thang- ppl who dislike him who also but don't want 2 vote 4 a senile old child molester will vote alternative, leave the top line blank, or just stay home
as 4 the rest of the article-- pure amusement
Polls vary a lot, and the big-time pollsters learned from2016: be wrong and become irrelevant. So the efforts to make them accurate may be making them less not more dramatic than the politics of the day actually is. We'll know soon enough. I'm of the opinion that the pollsters overcompensated, so the polls are less accurate this time than they were in 2016 -- just in the opposite direction. I hope so anyway. We desperately need a blowout.
(10-21-2020, 08:17 AM)David Horn Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 08:58 AM)Marypoza Wrote: [ -> ]l have 2 admit l tend 2 agree w/the 1st 2 paragraphs. The only poll worth anything is the 1 taking place on Nov 3rd. These other polls can be manipulated by parsing the questions so that whoever's paying 4 the poll gets the results they paid 4. Also their sample sizes are ridiculously small- 1000 ppl or (usually) less out of a potential 150,000,000 voters. Those ppls can also be manipulated- 4 instance if l tell them l'm not a Dem they'll say "thank you" & click. *Likely voters* are the jokers of the pack- they may or may not show up 2 vote. Meanwhile Orange Thang has a rabid cult following that will turn out in a blizzard 2 vote 4 him- if they think he's *behind* they will double down & get everybody they know & then some 2 turn out & vote 4 their gawd. ln fact l think those fake polls & media hype actually help the Orange Thang- ppl who dislike him who also but don't want 2 vote 4 a senile old child molester will vote alternative, leave the top line blank, or just stay home
as 4 the rest of the article-- pure amusement
Polls vary a lot, and the big-time pollsters learned from2016: be wrong and become irrelevant. So the efforts to make them accurate may be making them less not more dramatic than the politics of the day actually is. We'll know soon enough. I'm of the opinion that the pollsters overcompensated, so the polls are less accurate this time than they were in 2016 -- just in the opposite direction. I hope so anyway. We desperately need a blowout.
-- l used 2 work 4 an 800# service & a few of the clients were pollsters. l worked the overnite shift & keyed in the data that was collected on phone calls during the day & evening. l saw the questions & how the polls were manipulated to get the desired answers. From what i've seen & my own experience w/ polling calls not much has changed. l don't trust them
(10-21-2020, 10:10 AM)Marypoza Wrote: [ -> ]-- l used 2 work 4 an 800# service & a few of the clients were pollsters. l worked the overnite shift & keyed in the data that was collected on phone calls during the day & evening. l saw the questions & how the polls were manipulated to get the desired answers. From what i've seen & my own experience w/ polling calls not much has changed. l don't trust them
Good point. I guess we'll know soon enough.