Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory

Full Version: Election Night 2020 thread
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
Pages: 1 2 3 4
8 PM... a raft of states mostly in the eastern US.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Biden 88
Trump 57

Surprises? Missouri, and South Carolina have not yet been called. No flips yet. The surprises so far bode ill for Trump. (Indiana was called earlier, and is no surprise.

I'm going to show the Senate map with the Presidential map from hereon. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

No flips yet. Senator Doug Jones is ahead in Alabama despite all the smart money going against him.
8:30 PM... Trump wins Arkansas; Cotton holds in Arkansas.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]



Biden 90
Trump 70

I'm going to show the Senate map with the Presidential map from hereon. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Hickenlooper (D) ousts Gardner ® in the Senate seat if Colorado.
11 PM -- Biden wins California, Hawaii, and Washington; Trump wins Idaho and Utah. Republicans hold Senate seats in Idaho and Kansas and Democrats hold the Senate in Idqao.


[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;8]



Biden 202
Trump 88

I'm going to show the Senate map with the Presidential map from hereon. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]

Turberville flips Alabama R in the Senate and Cornyn holds an R Senate seat in Texas.
Absentee ballots will not be counted in Pennsylvania until tomorrow.

A Q-Anon qultist has won a Congressional seat in Georgia.

Milwaukee will not count its ballots before 5 AM tomorrow.
[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;8]

Whoops! somehow I inverted 10 PM and 11 PM results.

Biden 124
Trump 82

I'm going to show the Senate map with the Presidential map from hereon. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]
At this point I am amazed that

(1) no state has gone differently from 2016 to 2020
(2) the only states decided by less than 10% one way or the other in 2016 that have been decided are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia.
(11-03-2020, 11:18 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]At this point I am amazed that

(1) no state has gone differently from 2016 to 2020
(2) the only states decided by less than 10% one way or the other in 2016 that have been decided are Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia.

The close states wouldn't be called early.  Likely a factor.
11:30 -- Republican Senate incumbents hold seats in Louisiana and Mississippi.
12 -- Hawaii closes. Instant call for Biden.
12:17 AM -- Minnesota goes to Biden.
12:22 AM -- Trump wins Iowa, Montana, and Ohio
12:38 AM -- Trump wins Florida.
12:40 AM -- Ernst wins in Iowa, holding onto a key Senate seat.
1:09 AM -- Trump wins Texas.
1:22 AM -- Tina Smith makes Minnesota a D hold.
1:52 AM Biden wins the wayward Second Congressional District of Nebraska.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;8]



Biden 213
Trump 182

I'm going to show the Senate map with the Presidential map from hereon. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]
America is a disgrace. Because it re-elected Trump, who is a disgrace.

Trump owns Zuckerberg and co., because I can't say that on facebook.
I'm going to post the 270 map. brower's map is too small and confusing and uses the wrong colors.

[Image: BQBVb]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-results-live/
Presidential election status @ 12 AM pacific time, 3 am eastern.
Senate map 10:45 PM pacific time, 1:45 AM eastern
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-r...ve/senate/

[Image: M4rEka]

Mitch McConnell very-likely re-elected as our prime minister.
The AP and FoX News have both called Arizona. Biden has a lead in Wisconsin, but not enough to prevent a recount (of course I would rather have a recount with a lead than with the other guy having a lead!) Nevada is close with most outstanding votes coming from Washoe (including Reno and Sparks) and Clark counties (Greater Vegas). Michigan has Trump up 0.5% at this point... with lots of votes out in the Detroit area. Pennsylvania has a significant lead for Trump.. but the bulk of the votes yet counted in Greater Philly. Georgia is a possible Biden pickup based on votes in Greater Atlanta and some heavily-black rural counties.

At this point I would have my money on Biden.
So, who is winning at this point guys?
Pennsylvania - President
Updated: Nov 04, 2020 11:00am

Candidate Votes Percent
*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 3,015,155 54.3%
Joe Biden (Democratic) 2,473,728 44.5%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 64,749 1.2%
*Incumbent

Votes counted: 5,553,632. We estimate this is 79.5% of the total vote.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-r...nnsylvania

Before mail-in ballots started to be counted, the % was 56-42 with 74% counted IIRC


Michigan - President
Updated: Nov 04, 2020 11:00am

Candidate Votes Percent
Joe Biden (Democratic) 2,574,689 49.5%
*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 2,542,746 48.9%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 57,380 1.1%
Howie Hawkins (Green) 12,869 0.2%
Don Blankenship (Constitution) 7,839 0.2%
Roque De La Fuente (Independent) 2,822 0.1%
*Incumbent

Votes counted: 5,198,345. We estimate this is 94.3% of the total vote.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-r...e/michigan


Wisconsin - President
Updated: Nov 04, 2020 11:00am

Candidate Votes Percent
Joe Biden (Democratic) 1,630,279 49.6%
*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 1,609,641 48.9%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 38,385 1.2%
Brian Carroll (American Solidarity) 5,257 0.2%
Don Blankenship (Constitution) 5,209 0.2%
*Incumbent

Votes counted: 3,288,771. We estimate this is 98.2% of the total vote.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-r.../wisconsin


Nevada - President
Updated: Nov 04, 2020 11:04am

Candidate Votes Percent
Joe Biden (Democratic) 588,252 49.3%
*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 580,605 48.7%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 10,852 0.9%
None Of These Candidates (Unaffiliated) 10,391 0.9%
Don Blankenship (Constitution) 2,457 0.2%
*Incumbent

Votes counted: 1,192,557. We estimate this is 87.2% of the total vote.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-r...ate/nevada


Arizona - President
Updated: Nov 04, 2020 11:04am

Candidate Votes Percent
Joe Biden (Democratic) 1,410,977 51.0%
*Donald J. Trump (Republican) 1,317,468 47.6%
Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) 37,427 1.4%
*Incumbent

Votes counted: 2,765,872. We estimate this is 84.6% of the total vote.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-r...te/arizona


If Biden can win Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, he will have 270 electoral votes. If then he survives court challenges, he will be the next president.
About 1PM on Wednesday. NBC News calls three of four electoral votes from Maine. Wisconsin: 300 votes left from a small town, with Biden having a lead bigger than that. There will be a recount, which explains the muted color.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;8]



Biden 248
Trump 216

I'm going to show the Senate map with the Presidential map from hereon. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]
Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada (in which Biden has leads with votes running out) puts Biden at 281 electoral votes (Replace Georgia for Michigan and you get the same effect). Pennsylvania and any other remaining state (most likely Nevada) puts Biden at 274 electoral votes.
(11-04-2020, 03:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [ -> ]I have come to a sickening conclusion: the best way to exploit people, to get them to accept the absolute worst is to appeal to the viscera. Forget reason, learning, empathy, reflection, and self-interest: those are weak in contrast to the primitive drives and fears. Donald Trump is the greatest master of such in American history. I may be wise enough to distrust my gut instincts (or as Ronald Reagan cited an alleged Russian proverb, "Trust, but verify".

People become increasingly helpless -- and morally depraved. At this point I am no longer convinced that the American people as a whole are any better than the people of Nazi Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union, Idi Amin's Uganda, or Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

Should Trump pull this off, then I have lost all faith in electoral politics, at least in America. If in a land of criminals one becomes an accomplice, a victim, or an emigrant. Donald Trump's campaign told people that if they didn't vote for them they would lose their jobs and be subjected to extremist violence. Trump will exploit economic insecurity of his creation to scare people into further hardship -- and multitudes are stupid enough to fail to recognize that Donald Trump stirred up the social unrest that has recently bedeviled us.

If we fall for someone like Trump, then we will be the stupidest people on Earth -- the ones who voted for their own chains.

Firearms will not help me. Valium and vodka might.

That's right. And facebook will not allow this opinion on facebook. The Americans are responsible for this. If they have allowed a disgraceful person to be their president, then they are just as disgraceful.

Trump has not yet been elected, since he lost Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is still on track to flip to Biden. It depend on how close, it is and whether Biden will need the ballots that arrived after election day. If not, we are on the verge as a nation of one religious fanatic to potentially decide the election rather than 150 million Americans.

The blue wave did not crash. Republicans have picked up 6 seats in the House, but this is not final since some states are still counting including California. So we have two competing nations within one, and there is no guarantee that the demographics will favor the democratic blue one over the fascist red one going forward. As latinx people become established citizens, they are just as liable to be persuaded by trickle-down economics as well as naturally more socially conservative. Today's Millennial-Gen young people and the next Gen-Z may or may not stay as liberal as they are now, and may or may not participate as much as they need to. Trump is a cult leader, and unless he is in jail he will be out in red-land arousing the next Tea Party wave for 2022.
AP and FoX News call Arizona. The vote is nearly complete in Michigan and the AP has called it. Biden's lead is significant and seems to be expanding in Nevada (because the remaining ballots are from Greater Las Vegas, and those aren't largely going to Trump). Michigan and Arizona can still be subject to a recount, so they is in pale blue (as is Wisconsin). I don't see how Trump can win Nevada, so I would be tempted to call it now.

I take back the Senate race in North Carolina, which has been withdrawn with late votes coming in.  Michigan, Arizona, and New Mexico are apparently D holds.

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;8]



Biden 270
Trump 216

I'm going to show the Senate map with the Presidential map from hereon. 

[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]
Update as of 7:50 PM, Guy Fawkes' Day:

Georgia
Winner gets 16 electoral votes

CANDIDATES % VOTE WINNER
Donald Trump 49.4% 2,445,539
Joe Biden 49.3% 2,441,904
99% of estimated votes counted

Votes outstanding are largely from heavily-D Fulton and DeKalb County. This will be razor-thin, vote totals separated by just over 3600 votes.

North Carolina Winner gets 15 electoral votes
CANDIDATES % VOTES WINNER
Donald Trump 50.1% 2,732,084
Joe Biden 48.7% 2,655,383
94% of estimated votes counted

Votes outstanding are largely in urban, D-voting areas. This will be razor-thin, in view of the nearness of completion.

Nevada Winner gets 6 electoral votes
CANDIDATES % VOTES WINNER
Joe Biden 49.4% 604,251
Donald Trump 48.5% 592,813
84% of estimated votes counted

Votes are almost all from D-voting Clark County (greater Las Vegas).

PennsylvaniaIn progressWinner gets 20 electoral votes
CANDIDATES % VOTES WINNER
Donald Trump 49.9% 3,264,017
Joe Biden 48.9% 3,199,756

Don't let the 64K gap fool you: the outstanding votes are almost all in Greater Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and there are plenty of remaining votes from these heavily D-voting areas.

Any one of these is enough to write finis to the chance of a Trump re-election.

(AP through the Huffington Post. I'm back to the original source of my statewide calls and will likely stay there!
"Remember, remember the Fifth of November"...

GEORGIA (16 EV)

Donald Trump 49.4% 2,447,015
Joe Biden 49.4% 2,444,518
99% of estimated votes counted

One hour, and the gap is down to 2500. Mind the gap! How many votes are left?

NEVADA (6)

Joe Biden 49.4% 604,251
Donald Trump 48.5% 592,813
84% of estimated votes counted

no change, or none recognized.

NORTH CAROLINA (15)

Donald Trump 50.1% 2,732,084
Joe Biden 48.7% 2,655,383
94% of estimated votes counted

The gap is just under 77,000. I doubt that Biden will win this.  In about 340 K votes? Biden would need 247 K votes, which is about 73% of the vote remaining. It is marginal unless the community in question is about as D as Brooklyn, New York. No votes have been counted in about an hour, and it is likely that people are sleeping on the next day's count.

PENNSYLVANIA (20):

Donald Trump 49.7% 3,277,704
Joe Biden 49.1% 3,235,742
90% of estimated votes counted

In one hour, the gap has narrowed by a full 0.2% in the count. Georgia will be decided before Pennsylvania (barring some late-in military votes or something of the sort). The 42K gap is far less than the 64K gap of about an hour ago. The numbers in Pennsylvania look ominous for President Trump. This state will not be called until the votes are practically in, but this looks like a Biden win in its direction.
Pages: 1 2 3 4