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  Disney movies by era and intended audience
Posted by: GeekyCynic - 11-17-2018, 12:41 PM - Forum: Entertainment and Media - Replies (21)

Silent-intended (Golden Age):

Snow White and the Seven Dwarves
Pinocchio
Fantasia
Dumbo
Bambi
Saludos Amigos!
The Three Cabelleros
Make Mine Music
Fun and Fancy Free
Melody Time
The Adventures of Ichabod & Mr Toad

Boomer-intended (Silver Age):

Cinderella
Alice in Wonderland
Peter Pan
Lady and the Tramp
Sleeping Beauty
101 Dalmatians 
The Sword in the Stone
The Jungle Book

Xer-intended (Dark Age):

The Aristo-Cats
Robin Hood
The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh
The Rescuers
The Fox and the Hound
The Black Cauldron
The Great Mouse Detective
Oliver & Company

Millennial-intended (Renaissance/Modern Age):

The Little Mermaid
The Rescuers Down Under
Beauty and the Beast
Aladdin
The Lion King
Pocahontas 
The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Hercules
Mulan
Tarzan
Fantasia 2000
Dinosaur
The Emperor’s New Groove
Atlantis: The Lost Empire
Lilo & Stitch
Treasure Planet
Brother Bear
Home on the Range
Chicken Little
Meet the Robinsons
Bolt
The Princess and the Frog

New Silent-intended (Revival):

Tangled
Winnie the Pooh
Wreck-It Ralph
Frozen
Big Hero 6
Zootopia
Moana
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
Frozen 2
Gigantic

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  TV shows by turning
Posted by: GeekyCynic - 11-16-2018, 01:53 PM - Forum: Entertainment and Media - Replies (2)

American High, 1T:

The Lone Ranger
I Love Lucy
The Adventures of Ozzie & Harriet
Father Knows Best
The Honeymooners
Leave It To Beaver
The Donna Reed Show
Mister Ed
Dennis the Menace
The Twilight Zone

Consciousness Revolution, 2T:

Bewitched
Star Trek
The Mary Tyler Moore Show
All in the Family
Sanford and Son
M*A*S*H
Happy Days
The Jeffersons
Charlie’s Angels
Three’s Company

Culture Wars and Long Boom, 3T:

The Cosby Show
The Golden Girls
Roseanne
Seinfeld
Home Improvement
The X-Files
Friends 
Everybody Loves Raymond
Will and Grace
The Sopranos

Millennial Crisis, 4T:

Mad Men
The Big Bang Theory
Breaking Bad
Modern Family
The Walking Dead
Game of Thrones
Orange is the New Black
True Detective
Stranger Things
Westworld

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  Image Posting
Posted by: jleagans - 11-15-2018, 06:36 PM - Forum: General Discussion - Replies (2)

I'll delete this whenever I figure it out, but how do you stick a screenshot directly into your post?  I set up a google photo account and linking to that doesn't work through the [img] code.  

Thanks for any help...

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  Election Turnout by Generations
Posted by: jleagans - 11-15-2018, 12:46 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (6)

I was tired of hearing everyone attacking Millennial non-voting as if it was some anomaly and broke out the numbers, national election by national election.  I had to tweak the timings a little bit on the generational starts to make sure each election captured the exact same ages for each generation.  This put the start years at:

Boomers-1944
Gen X-1964
Millennials-1984

Results:

Millennials and Boomers started off about the same, then Millennials DID comparatively dip in the midterms (though that is offset in 2010 by an overall turnout dip that explains the difference).  The 2016 election, however, was the first-time Millennials turned out at a higher rate than the other generations and based on 2018 it looks likely for that trend to be expanding.  Millennials as a civic generation that will rebuild community is now CORROBORATED by voting turnout and not refuted by it.


.xlsx   Generational Voting Comparison.xlsx (Size: 20.23 KB / Downloads: 1)

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  Gray Champion Predictions
Posted by: jleagans - 11-14-2018, 04:58 PM - Forum: Theory Related Political Discussions - Replies (153)

The Gray Champion is something I keep coming back to, and at root its just a fun guessing game.  

I believe there will be one President in between Trump and the first Millennial President, that person most likely being the Gray Champion.

My top 5:

1. Michael Bloomberg
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Joe Biden
4. Mitt Romney
5. Elizabeth Warren

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  Change username
Posted by: Bill the Piper - 11-14-2018, 06:33 AM - Forum: Forum feedback - Replies (1)

Can I change my username to "Wayfarer"? Please. Heart

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  Controlling Cohort in Each Generation
Posted by: jleagans - 11-08-2018, 05:22 PM - Forum: Generations - Replies (17)

Stemming from Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers" and the idea that smaller cohorts within a larger age group can have outsized control/impact, I applied this to the major generations and think there is something to it (at least for the Boomers and Millenials).  

The eye-popping fact that led me to this thinking:  every American President, except for Obama, since 1992 was born in 1946.


I would define the Control Cohort as the earliest core group within a generation.  This group gets outsize control due to the increased advantages they get from entering the market as the last generation is leaving and so more openings are available, and how those benefits over a life compound.  Other recurrences of this would be the Robber Barons during the Gilded Age and Steve Jobs / Bill Gates Silicon Valley giants.

For the Boomers this would be 1946-1949. For the Millennials 1984-1987.  The first year of the generation seems to have the most clearly dominant actors of any year of the generation.

Boomer evidence-nearly every major political actor of the generation:

1946-Bill Clinton/ George W. Bush/Donald Trump
         
1947-Hillary Clinton/ Mitt Romney/Dan Quayle/Arnold Schwartzenneger

1948-Al Gore/ Howard Dean

1949-John Boehner/ Elizabeth Warren

Early Millennial Evidence (outside of politics mainly):

1984-Lebron James, Mark Zuckerberg, Ezra Klein, Connor Lamb, Ben Shapiro


How is this useful?  I would predict the first Millennial President would be born in 1984 and will likely take office by 2028 so Connor Lamb 2028?  Shapiro?

And if a Boomer wins in 2020 this would give Warren the edge.

Let me know what you think and list any others you find that should be included.

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  Comprehensive Political Cycle Theory
Posted by: jleagans - 11-08-2018, 04:55 PM - Forum: Theory Related Political Discussions - Replies (15)

I've been working on the various strands of this for several years now, and a lot of the inspiration for this Political Cycle Theory comes from this Vox Article about political realignments. The research-based model it puts forth shows that in the entirety of American history the "political clock" has always moved clockwise.  

Here's my simplification of the model:

[Image: 0?ui=2&ik=3fd895f60f&attid=0.1.1&permmsg...I&disp=emb]

Also want to copy over the established "party eras" in American history as they are in-line with this:

Four Major Eras of American Political Parties

  • Era of the Democrats 1800-1860. Federalist disappeared by 1816. ...
  • Era of the Republicans 1860-1932. Lincoln helped the Republicans jump from 3rd party to major party.
  • Return of the Democrats 1932-1968. Great depression reached the Republicans Party.
  • The Start of a New Era 1968-Present.

The basic logic is that American politics (at the timings Strauss/Howe have identified and imo strongly influenced by generational change) has been a series of "sortings" and "resortings" into Democratic and Republican parties based around Economic and Social Issues. I've mapped out the model for each of the elections and the major "sorts" have been:

1. 1896-The First Economic "Sort" - Mckinley and the Silver v. Gold Debate decisively make the Republican Party the party of economic conservatism and the Democrats the party of Economic Liberalism.  Over the course of this party era the country sorts into a Democratic party that has 100% of the economic liberals and a Republican party that has 100% of the economic conservatives.  

2. 1960's- The First Social "Sort"-  The passage of the Civil Rights Act by LBJ begins the start of the two parties sorting based on social issues.  We have been in this sort ever since and a lot of our current political frictions stem from the sort having neared completion.  We are very close or at the point where 100% of Social Liberals are Democrats and 100% of Social Conservatives are Republican, Donald Trump feels like the last stage of that process.

The main dynamic at play in these sorts are "flanking maneuvers", where one party finds its advantage in the flank of the other party .  Today those "flanks" are the Economic Liberal Bernie voters in the Democratic Party and the Economic Conservative Wealthy Republicans.  

I'm trying to simplify and shorten this as much as possible, but the takeaway of this is that our politics will be in gridlock until one party starts the process of sorting around economic issues.  Given that the direction of the sort has ALWAYS been clockwise it is most likely that a Democrat running strongly on Economic Conservatism has the best chance of breaking this gridlock and starting the start.  Likely candidates?  Michael Bloomberg, Mitt Romney, John Kasich are all potential Dem or third party nominees that could usher this in.  

Here's a pic of how Trump/ Hillary looked (orange shaded area are the "fair game" members of the party coalition:

[Image: 0?ui=2&ik=3fd895f60f&attid=0.1.1&permmsg...w&disp=emb]


And a draft of a 2020 and how the space exists for an Economic Conservative:

[Image: 0?ui=2&ik=3fd895f60f&attid=0.1.1&permmsg...E&disp=emb]

This is my first time jotting this down, lots of elements I could expound on but hope this makes sense and let me know your thoughts.

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  Gen Z Name: iGen
Posted by: jleagans - 11-08-2018, 04:25 PM - Forum: Homeland Generation/New Adaptive Generation - Replies (20)

I don't really see "Homeland" or "New Adaptive" sticking as the official name for the next Artist generation.  Best I've heard it called is "iGen", but what do y'all think?

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  Millennials and masculinity
Posted by: Bill the Piper - 11-08-2018, 05:54 AM - Forum: The Millennial Generation - Replies (18)

We know that civic generations should be preoccupied with masculinity and have a disdain for female influence in politics. Do you see any signs this is happening? I don't

There are signs that millennials are more in favour in some aspects of traditional masculinity. More guys wear beards than it used to be the case in early 2000s. There have been some movies where tough men are portrayed in positive light rather than as outcasts and bandits. But in general, feminism is stronger than ever. Furthermore, millennial men are often stereotyped as "snowflakes". It's the ladies who flex their biceps on Instagram!

I suspect the 2030s won't be nearly as male-fixated as the previous 1T was. It could even be a feminist-oriented decade. Then, the 2T would be a rebellion against millennial mother figures rather than dads as the previous time.

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