I've posted elsewhere on this forum that one motif of this Fourth Turning is the end of the U.S.-led post-WWII international order. In a new age of every Great Power for itself trade deals are strictly one-on-one.

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/29/17791430/t...afta-labor

I've been waiting for this for a while now.

https://freebeacon.com/national-security...ker-warns/

All that is required now is to shift the "Terror" plot from Afghani-bin-Laden-esque figures (which then shifted to Iraq) to Iran.

Recent stories report Iran and Syria warning they control the Persian Gulf and the U.S. should leave. 

It seems this 4th Turning scenario might be inevitable.  I came to this forum I think last year?  I thought perhaps the Turning might be already in motion and a SOFT reboot, but I must say the wind is not swaying my way on that, sadly.

If we look into this, it is clear the Straw Man was created in 2001, it redefined "enemy" and completely redefined what it means to "attack".  I am still unsure WHERE exactly 911 fits into this Turning scenario.... many have said "911 was not the game-changer" or whatever, but I would call a total overhaul on what it means to be AT WAR and WHO EXACTLY is the enemy was redefined in 2001 like nothing before it....... the WWII - Korea - Vietnam - Persian Gulf were all the same: a fixed enemy in theater of a fixed place.  Clearly-drawn ideology/boundaries.

911 broke the mold on all that.

Now, all need do is say "Terror" then point to anyone or any PLACE on a map and then war has suddenly appeared.  I mean, can anyone else confirm?  After 2001, FBI and Homeland were breaking down doors in BUFFALO NEW YORK to bust Terror Cells.  I say Buffalo because there exists no reason for anyone to be IN Buffalo (the most random place) and if FEDS are searching there, they could be searching Omaha or Pittsburgh and anywhere.

So, this whole thing is still playing on ignorance and racial profiling and the fact hardly anyone can point to "Arabia" on a map to know what countries/religions/cultures are there................. they only know "Arab" means "Terror".  Anyone under the age of 20yo has been trained by association with planes flying into buildings that "Arab People" hate us and want to kill us because we are free But by very definition, Israel is Arab.  Go figure.

Really.  Can anyone say that is untrue?  Seriously.  Are we being real right now?

So, to many, there is no difference between Iran and Syria......... it's all "Terror" so we have to rip it down.  The one difference is now Iran has powerful capabilities and possible global alliance with northern Asia (Russia) since Iran is southern Asia.  I mean, to not know that in this circumstance is like saying Canada would not ally with America when invaded by ................ Wakanda.

Anyway, I sense a mad blow off that is just waiting to pop.  When it does, the president will receive salvation in the form of The Great Distraction --- a foreign menace --- where he is able to maneuver out of her personal problems to focus on some real devastation.  He is going to make an excellent war president.  War presidents need a lot of posturing and quick words of atrophied dogma.

I'm sad this has to happen.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018...cial-media

In my experience, "social" trends always seem to happen in Europe, to GB, then to New York, then California and then spread out to America to reverberate the same "ripples" again.

A small side note, either I am exceptionally insightful (which is definitely true) or there are just many uninformed people out there (also true), one half of the anagram for NAZI is SOCIAL.  National Socialist. That is what forms the anagram NAZI.  Two words.  National & Social. Now back to regularly-scheduled blah blah

It is shocking the trend coming out of GB is to turn off social media.  I have never believed that phrase (social media) accurately describes the things depicted in the article such as platforms or ways of interacting.  It is a marketing employment, and turned out to be a really effective one.  Forcing a whole generation to believe that to not exist in "Social Media" is to not exist at all.  This is definitely a large wave in "national mood" even though no evidence like this is produced as referring to the United States.  But to beat the curve, we can look at what's coming to see when it will or IF it will manifest here. 

If any consolation, the Kardashians (I use that as a baseline for the modern "connected" generation) they received much public renouncing with the Kanye MAGA backwash and a lot of other things.  It was not one thing or another, it seemed like this plastic "family" had been melting for at least the last half decade.  If we are here to study a 4th Turning situation, it is important to remember we should not expect anything we have seen before.  It won't look the way we might expect.  The reality is probably going to be reactionary and very large AGAINST things that have been hugely popular previously.

As for me, I've been sort of hiding in the corner waiting for this "social" mess to pass over, l'ange du mort, for years now.  I have never had a personal fakebook account.  Never had a personal twitter account either.  And when ever using these things, I felt since the beginning it was some sort of Doom we all were swallowing as so much sticky ice cream in the heat because the power went out and why watch ice cream melt.

I truly did not see this until after posting -- Kardashian Ratings Freefall.

I am having a bit of trouble separating church and state.  Let me draw a few lines.  Are there those who disagree?

We have Ten Commandments…

1. You shall have no other Gods but me.
2. You shall not make for yourself any idol, nor bow down to it or worship it.
3. You shall not misuse the name of the Lord your God.
4. You shall remember and keep the Sabbath day holy.
5. Respect your father and mother.
6. You must not commit murder.
7. You must not commit adultery.
8. You must not steal.
9. You must not give false evidence against your neighbor.
10. You must not be envious of your neighbor’s goods. You shall not be envious of his house nor his wife, nor anything that belongs to your neighbor.

Now, 1, 2 3, and 4 seem pure religious.  Government seems to have no business enforcing them.  

Wait?  4?  Can we have blue laws?  Weekends?  Yes, we are allowed to, and they can correspond to various maybe religious traditions, but governments have no business leaning the blue laws to enforce a particular set of religious traditions.  For practical reasons, the blue laws should be compatible with the majority, though.

Then we have 6, 7, 8  and 9, which describe civil crimes.  Both churches and governments deal with crimes, one to preach against them, and the other to enforce and punish.  I have no problem with the government enforcing and punishing crimes as long as the crimes are not religious ones, such as eating meat on a Friday.

Then we have 5 and 10, honoring parents and not envying your neighbors stuff.  Honor and envy are emotions.  I do not see the government enforcing that a citizen feel a certain way.  At the same time, 5 and 10 seem like good ideas.  I can quite seen the desire of a church to preach things like that.  This seems to be a church issue, with each sect free to decide what to preach so long as there is no advocacy of committing a crime.

Does this result in any controversy?

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/27/17786018/j...flag-tweet

He won't talk about McCain's legacy.  Nor publicly honor or acknowledge him.  AT BEST I think someone out there who is a parent would (not knowing who or what) would say whoever is acting this way needs a spanking and put to bed early.  I'm not the first to make that analogy of course.

However, even my worse WORK frenemy or someone I really just do not enjoy in that environment, OMFG if they died, would I be able to stand in front of my co-workers and say something nice about them?  Hot utterly horrible a person am I, how completely unhinged (I love that word, it is too bad Amor Osa used it for her book title) that I can't read a teleprompter with nice words for a career senator and war veteran?  I mean, it's the duty as President to bear ritual and niceties - he is not CEO, although the whole thing brings me continually back to wondering if America went too far Capitalist in the previous Turning.  Because he is acting like CEO in every single way that matters.  CEOs are c*nts.  That IS to only real word for them.  And on top of that, beholden to no one and nothing except the balance sheet. 

WE ARE THAT COUNTRY RIGHT NOW.  There's no use pretending anymore.  America IS the big box store of the world, trampling everyone without corporate lawyers and feeding monsters like fakebook.

I wouldn't work in an environment where the "leader" would act this way.  It's patently filthy.  Rather abominable, really.  Lack of humanity or even a hint of grace.  I have no knowledge of the Mrs in that group, but just looking at her, I cannot fathom what goes through her mind in all this.  She was a model?  She's lovely, she has a youngish child, she is originally from abroad which means she most-likely understands the hard realities of social grace and parlance... how horrified is she?  If she is NOT a fembot, she must be under heavily-packed legal contract that she will .......................... I don't know.................. if she leaves or protests, somehow there's a video of her with 2 humans and a mule in Tijuana ..................... to be released as retribution.  Evil is not a good word, I don't believe in that nor is it the right word.  "Trash" is too tame.  I'm the Wordsmith and struggle with the right phraseology for this person.

I'm urged to speak!  I do not usually go into partisanism and I still do not think this comment IS partisan. 

HOW can a man that evaded Vietnam who then doubted the heroism and made fun the capture IN that war of a Senator -- how could such a person EVER have become president?  I'm shocked and horrified.  I continue to be.

EDIT: I meant above if unclear, the current president actually insulted McCain for "getting captured" -- John McCain suffered massive torture and was returned alive, then became a prominent Senator.  He didn't impregnate women while attached assets paid their silence.  Or whatever.  While I'm in this edit, it brings me to remembering the documentary "Born Rich".  You probably will not be able to find it anywhere unless you are a pirate (I'm shocked it is actually on youtube now!).  The president's daughter gives a really nice anecdote which revealed a wonderful insight into her dad.  The documentary is like from turn of the century I think.  No one knew.  It's a documentary about rich kids.

She said: "My dad was doing bankruptcy, and there was this man kind of sitting against the wall outside my dad's building, I think he was homeless, and my dad pointed to that man and said ''that guy has Eight Million Dollars more than I do right now'."

https://youtu.be/Y5h8Sncv3Pk

For a person like this to ever be a national figure anywhere is like a festering boil.  For him to be OUR national figure is even worse.

HOWEVER,

The S&H texts IMO teach us to look for signals in MOOD SHIFT.  I sense a looming public mood shift...... a mood that was present with utter disbelief at the political process which allowed the current president to occupy that office..... but may finally be ready to go to outright WAR with this man and everything he is in the very near future.

Since I have never ranted about this before, I should indulge.

It is my firm belief that the "Mafioso" element present in America in the early 20th century (but which existed throughout America's history in many forms) is now culminating in the current president and all attached to him.  The current president is as something which crawled from the sewer but demands a crown.  He disgusts me as hardly anything does.  I cannot look at his face nor listen to his voice for any reason. 

I believe if the man himself were not so utterly repulsive, I could at least stretch my imagination to understand why others may back him.  However, I am unable to do that.  There was an article recently headlined something "NOW THEY STAB IN THE FRONT".  The story was about how the current administration has brought such a violent fervor to the office that all those involved no longer plot secretly to screw each other over (or anyone) they do it right to the person's face.  The article said "it is more personal that way".

We have now reached a point not just of disagreement and strong opposing beliefs............ it is no longer about trying to bring down your enemy............. it is about killing your enemy, shitting on their grave and desecrating their memory for all time (if they can).

This filth can and will stop.  I am only seriously hoping and meditating on ALL who read this that we can get through it and pass to the other side alive.

Ready Player One: "People just stopped trying to fix problems and just started trying to outlive them."  <---- I will not be that person. 

FUCK that.

While women have come along way since the Women's Lib movement of the 1970s, and many more have become advanced professionals--doctors, lawyers, CEOs, etc., these advances have failed to really make them happier as a whole. Enclosed is an article I found on that subject for discussion purposes only. In fact, women's happiness declined while men's level of happiness remained relatively stable, despite the hubbub over an angry white male syndrome, which I believe persists mostly among the formerly unionized blue collar culture, which now seems to have all but disappeared. I can recall when folks from women's organizations picketed the Miss America pageant as a supposed symbol of male chauvinism and oppression. Duh! It takes much more than a pretty face to become Miss America. But bowing to public pressure they have eliminated the swimsuit competition, which I personally think is silly because you can find plenty of young women in swimsuits at any public pool or beach. What might be considered is to whether something like the Miss America pageant is something that has outlived its usefulness. It originally began in 1921 as a way to extend the beach season in Atlantic City. What I am guessing is that it will hang on until the centennial year in 2021 and possibly die shortly thereafter.

As collective humanity, what is our identity? The gospel according to the authors of the 4T book suggests that during a 4T gender roles will once again widen. But I have not seen any real evidence of that to day. Most of us whether male or female, black or white, straight or gay, are not happy with the current state of our country and how we're seen around the world. And, no, this cannot be laid solely at Trump's feet because we have been heading toward less total satisfaction with our lives for nearly a half century now. Would this more or less perpetual malaise reflect this self-image wounding and may it also suggest we've spent too much time fighting about the wrong things? Do you feel that it's time to give up what can't be won and champion what can?

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...gender-gap

I haven't thought about S&H much for a while, but had a few random thoughts after some time away from it. I've had doubts about various aspects of their theories, especially the more specific details, but I think the more you zoom out, the more credibility it has. It doesn't fit exactly under any category, so I chose General. With that in mind, this is how I see things right now:

1. The Boomer Left, which had been on a relentless 50 year march, reached its apotheosis from 2008-2016. It reached its phase of maximum influence, and maximum decadent excess. In 2016, the dam broke. The Left's shock and incredible hysteria at Trump becoming president was based on their cult-like dogma about the inevitability, and linear "progress", of their idiosyncratic obsessions. Their faith was shattered. Cyclical pendulums swung and smacked them for a loop like an anvil landing on Wile E. Coyote.

2. It's unclear exactly where we sit in the cycle, and there are echoes of many past cycles. There is division in the US like the Civil War, with the extremes embracing the discredited and cataclysmic ideologies of WWII. Totalitarianism is back in fashion, especially on the Far Left, which increasingly calls openly for socialism, and has taken up a cause of Nazi-like systematization of "identity" groups, and a Maoist Cultural Revolutionary determination to completely erase and remake society, culture and history by any means necessary. The fact that freedom of speech and other First Amendment protections are now openly opposed by the radical left, not merely a few cranks, but systematically in major institutions (academic, media, internet behemoths) is a relatively new feature of truly dangerous militant extremism. Orwell is rolling in his grave about the ideas increasingly dominating Silicon Valley, which makes them look like they're following 1984 as if it's a textbook.

On the Right, there have been minuscule but amplified outcroppings of moldy white supremacism, and the weird internet trolls of the "alt right", all of which amount to a real phenomenon, but a very limited one, with no real power and influence. As you move towards the center, there has been a clear shift away from the heavily libertarian ideology that dominated Republicans in the 3T towards a more traditional conservatism. 

Donald Trump defies categorization in various ways, but in the broadest sense, I think Obama is analogous to FDR, and Trump is analogous to Truman and/or Eisenhower. 

As said above, we have continued to see reiterations of Boomer obsessions from their youth. The Iraq War was their replay of Viet Nam. The actions of the Obama Administration in 2016 increasingly look like a replay of Watergate, on steroids. The attempt by the DoJ and other players to interfere with the election, wiretap the opposing party, and then run a campaign of leaks against a sitting president is unprecedented. The complete corruption of the executive branch that occurred under Obama is increasingly impossible to ignore. Whether that results in cleaning house and resetting the country on more honest footing, or is merely the political "establishment" warming up, along with Silicon Valley and other institutions, to impose true totalitarianism remains to be seen. The agenda of radical social leftism and economic globalization cannot hold, and the US will collapse and disintegrate if it is not turned back permanently. You cannot combine globalization with identity politics without disaster. The jury is still out on whether it continues to its inevitable end. Trump is certainly an attempt to stop it. And they know it, which is why they are trying so hard to destroy him. I am optimistic that people have begun to wake up in time to repair the damage and prevent disaster, but the jury is still out. 

3. If we are in the 4T, and 2008 was the main Catalyst, has there been a Climax? The recent elections in the West, from Brexit to Trump and others, while a decided break point in a new direction, don't seem sufficient. On the other hand, if the 4T began earlier, say on 9/11/2001 as I have long suspected, the present could be, very simply, the beginning of the 1T. Perhaps 9/11 was the Catalyst, and the 2008 crash the Climax?

4. What should be made of the Millenials, and the following generation which is now coming of age? The Millenials don't seem to fit many of S&H's predictions, but they certainly fit some. Their conformity to hierarchical control is clear, where they have dutifully allowed themselves to be dominated by the Boomer Left. Their obsession with the "wonders of technology" is clear, like Civics before them. They obviously seek some kind of rationalization, stability and regimentation, even if it's subconscious, and they don't know what that is. 

The next generation ("Homelanders" in past 4T forum-speak) are definitely looking more like Xers, who are primarily the parents of the early cohorts now coming of age. How that translates into Artists is an interesting question. Overpowered by Millenials and Boomers at this point, they are probably more self-contained and cautious than other groups, biding their time, waiting to see how things turn out. As Boomers age out (which has begun to happen rapidly), the new Artists and their Xer parents will dominate, while the new Prophets are born. 

While many of S&H's specific predictions about the future remain suspect, these are my guesses at this point, when it comes to where we go from here:

1. The first question that has to be settled is whether we are half way through the 4T, or at the beginning of the 1T. I'm not completely sure one way or the other. If the Climax has yet to come, there are only two possibilities I can foresee. 

One is the collapse of the United States and the West in general, due to internal division. The Radical Left inside the US has become genuinely extreme, and they exert heavy influence over many societal institutions. They are now unopposed within the Democratic Party, which has been purged of moderates, or whose moderates have been cowed into subservience to the Far Left. They completely control much of academia, and the media. And they have an influence on big business which no one would have predicted, thanks in no small part to the economic dominance of Silicon Valley, which is right outside San Francisco, the most far left place in the US. 

Geopolitically, the primary threat to the US and the West is China. In recent decades, and in the extreme in recent years, the US economy has been intertwined with China's. The combination of "globalization" with the Boomer Left's radical, authoritarian, and racist social leftism can only lead to the collapse of the United States, splintering into balkanized enclaves of warring groups. Russia, while overblown due to its tiny economy and heavy reliance on fossil fuel exports, appears to want revenge for the collapse of the Soviet Union, and would love to see nothing more. Their dabbling in US politics did not elect Donald Trump - what has been shown instead is their involvement in trying to encourage extremists across the spectrum, like Black Lives Matter, white supremacists, and the "Resistance" of the radical left, to heighten divisions and instability in the US. Their most recently discovered attempts involved trying to help organize and promote anti-Trump protests outside the White House. 

So the bad outcome involves the Radical Left in the US seizing power, and pushing the doomed combination of globalization and identity politics even farther forward to its logical conclusion, which would result in the effective dissolving of the US, and the domination of the world by Communist China for the coming "saeculum".

The other, more positive outcome, which I think is more likely, is that we are at or near the 1T, and the movements across the West generally defined as "conservative populism" are society slamming on the brakes after a period of chaos. I think the generational alignments argue for this interpretation. Boomers, despite the persistence of visible leaders like Trump, are almost completely in retirement now in society at large, and the post-Millenial generation is coming of age. The economy is finally reviving after a decade of suffering, which followed a decade of decline. Real median household incomes have just recently returned to where they were in 1998, after two decades below that peak. Trump's actions geopolitically are showing a clear pattern of putting out fires. He effectively ended ISIS within months of taking office, and has engaged with North Korea. He uses leverage to force people to the table, and then makes deals. His goal is not some new major war (he ran on opposition to Iraq, and has been called an isolationist), but rather peace and stability, with the US remaining a superpower, unthreatened. 

2. Provided the second outcome, and the beginning of the 1T, I can see a few trends emerging. The new Artists will seek some sort of stable, negotiated settling of the Boomer divides, which will be provided by their Xer parents in Midlife. The recurring eruptions of leftist outrage will be receding aftershocks, increasingly rejected by society at large. Millenials will quiet down, settle down, and build their careers, homes and families, being shaped more by Xer leadership than Boomer, which will have a moderating impact on them. Xers will finally catch a break, and will enjoy peace and prosperity in leadership, then retire into the 2T, which they will simply ignore. The culture, robbed of all meaning by the groupthink control of discredited leftist extremism, will be a relatively exhausted wasteland. The new Artists (if their S&H name has any meaning) will want to fill the void, and grow up with enough protection and prosperity to pursue it.

In the 2T, the Millenials will emerge into leadership, with their trademark hubris and faith in technology at the forefront. They will seek to carry out their programming, but their children will rebel against them. One trend that seems certain is a rebellion against technology, and a "return to nature" as typical of S&H traits. The internet will no longer be new and exciting, but rather stifling old news, and Millenials won't be able to see it any other way. Spending time in nature, and focusing on the things that separate humans from machines, will be one likely Prophet rejection of their parents' values. 

Given the extreme and hostile suppression and persecution of Christianity by the Radical Left during the 4T, I wouldn't be surprised to see a resurgence among the next Prophets. One can imagine the horror Millenial parents would react with if their kids suddenly became outspoken Evangelicals. Since the Prophets usually have divided camps and competing visions, I could see some other alternative being a "singularity"-like quest for "transhumanism" on the part of the next Prophet Left, impatient to push even farther into insanity as the Boomer Left did. 

It's impossible to say what the major geopolitical issues of the next saeculum will be, but the general outline of a world where the West has to contend with major issues with China, with Russia playing the spoiler, looks like where things are headed. With China being the new Soviet Union of the last saeculum's Cold War. 

This post has been much longer than expected - the ideas started flowing - so I'll stop it there. Helped me flesh out my own thoughts. I've convinced myself again that 9/11 was the Catalyst, and we are now approaching the 1T boundary, but probably not quite there yet. Trump/Pence looks like some analogy of Truman/Eisenhower.

From Foreign Affairs Magazine. The article is dated, so I can largely dispense with the introduction.
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10 Ways to Tell if Your President Is a Dictator

Just because the United States is a democracy now, it doesn’t mean it will stay that way.
By [url=https://foreignpolicy.com/author/stephen-m-walt/]Stephen M. Walt

| November 23, 2016, 9:02 AM

Quote:Given what is at stake, one of the most important things we can all do is remain alert for evidence that Trump and those around him are moving in an authoritarian direction. For those who love America and its Constitution more than they love any particular political party or any particular politician, I offer as a public service my top 10 warning signs that American democracy is at risk.

The British NHS wait lists are getting so bad that patients are going to private providers.  It would no doubt be worse without the private sector which mysteriously manages to avoid these kinds of problems.

Here is a defector from the Soviet Union to explain how bad socialized medicine can get.  This is particularly true when there is no private sector to go to which was the case in the Soviet Union.