The title to this thread says it all. Roughly 50 years ago it was widely assumed that all the advanced technology we today kneel at the feet of but then was still in its infancy if it had arrived at all, would lead us toward a society of increased leisure time. By the time we reached the year 2000 it was predicted that the average work week would be about 30 hours. It is painfully obvious that it hasn't worked out that way. Between the years 1973 and 1990 Americans lost on average some 40 percent of previous leisure time. Here i propose a thoughtful discussion of what transpired during that 17 year interval to make liars of all those futurists who at the time were nearly unanimous in prediction the leisure society. And will we ever that society of increase leisure which we were once all but promised?

Since not only did 9/11 not cause the Culture Wars to wind down, but the Culture Wars have actually ramped up since then (Lawrence vs. Texas, Obergefell v. Hodges,  "partial-birth abortion," the continuing drive to defund Planned Parenthood), I theorize that with 9/11 began a unique hybrid 3T-4T, which I expect will end with a financial catastrophe in most likely October 2019 (something I have been predicting for literally two decades), leaving us in a pure 4T, which could commence as early as this November, if "The Map" holds up and the Republicans get to 60 seats to Senate, or to 59 and the Republicans can induce Maine independent Angus King, who currently caucuses with the Democrats, to cross the aisle.

I don't see a military related thread, so I'll start one up here.

Current 4 Star generals and admirals are still overwhelmingly Boomer:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ac...r_officers


Nakasone b. 1963 (USA: US Cyber Command)
McDrew b. 1960 (USAF)
Abrams b. 1960 (USA)
Perna b. 1960 (USA)
Richardson b. 1960 (USN: CNO)
Grady? Commissioned ROTC 1984 (USN)
Raymond? Comm. (ROTC?) 1984 (USAF)
Everhart II b. 1961 (USAF)
O'Shaughnessy b. 1964 (USAF)
Wolters b. 1961 (USAF)
Michel b. 1963 (USCG)
Giror b. 1960 (PHS)

...but there are 4 Boomers on the cusp on Xer (1960), 2 Xers on the cusp of Boomer (1961), and (probably) 5 Xers (1962 or later) out of 41 (including the US Coast Guard and Public Health Service). On 1960 cohort is Chief of Naval Operations (the oversimplify, the head of the Navy), and an Xer commands Cyber Command.



Resurrected from the old 4TF:

http://generationaldynamics.com/tftarchive/4068-S-amp-H-s-Theory-Regarding-War-amp-the-Military-00001.htm

(100th thread!)

More than half of the winning Democratic candidates for House seats in Tuesday’s primary elections were women ― a fresh indication of women’s sustained political mobilization since President Donald Trump’s election.

In the four states that held primary elections — Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia — 22 out of 40 congressional districts picked women as their Democratic nominees, including eight black women, according to Gender Watch 2018, a project of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

Women won 17 of20 Democratic primary races for open seats, according to Politico.

Tuesday’s wins for Democratic women continue a wave of similar victories in other state primaries this year, showing the increased fervor and political engagement among women since Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Millions took to the streets for the Women’s March, held the day after his inauguration. A long-term goal of the movement has been to encourage women to run for public office, and numerous organizations have formed to help train women candidates and provide campaign resources.

The women nominees’ future successes are not assured. Some face difficult general election contests in solidly GOP districts.
Still, the showing in this year’s primaries raises the question of whether progressive candidates can make inroads in Trump country. One contender is Liz Watson, a labor attorney who on Tuesday secured the Democratic nomination in Indiana’s 9th District, which includes traditionally conservative areas and liberal college towns, and has previously elected Democrats.

More than 300 women filed paperwork to run for U.S. House seats this year as of April, according to analysis by The Associated Press.
Since the 2016 election, more than 36,000 women have contacted EMILY’s List to express interest in running for local, state or national office. The organization called it “a sea change in American politics,” and predicted the trend will be bigger than the 1992 elections, dubbed the year of the woman.

On a smaller scale, women in the Republican Party also are running for office, with some saying they feel left out by the GOP under Trump.

On Tuesday, five GOP women won House primaries, according to Gender Watch 2018. In three of the districts ― Indiana’s 5th, North Carolina’s 5th and Ohio’s 11th ― both candidates in November’s general election will be women, with a woman incumbent facing a woman challenger.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/dem...d601e8a6ed

U.S. Treasury says first-quarter borrowing set record of $488 billion

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/eco...567166002/

California city bans use of phones, earbuds in crosswalks

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/02/18/c...rosswalks/

Ford will only sell two kinds of cars in America

54 comments

9 out of 10 Fords in the US will be trucks and SUVs, alongside a hybrid version of the new Bronco



Ford has previously made it known it’s placing its bets on two major areas: the extremely profitable line of trucks and SUVs and a heavy investment in more forward-looking mobility solutions like connected cars and smart cities. But the automaker made that official, as it announced Wednesday it would be abandoning all of its traditional sedans and hatchbacks for the North American market.

In its quarterly earnings call, Ford CEO Jim Hackett said the company would offer only the Mustang and new Focus (in SUV-like Active trim) in North America at some point in the near future, after the current product cycle winds down. This effectively kills the Fiesta and Fusion ranges, while the new Focus arrives sometime next year — likely sourced from a plant in China. The Taurus and current Focus sedans were due to expire this year, too.

Ford does have to keep an eye on its fuel economy averages, though. Hackett confirmed the 2020 Bronco SUV, which will share components with the 2019 Ranger pickup, would get a hybrid version. The Bronco is set to compete with the likes of the Jeep Wrangler and Toyota 4Runner. Jeep added a 48-volt mild hybrid system to the 2018 Wrangler, but it’s unclear if the Bronco will get a similar system or a plug-in hybrid format. Hybrid versions of the F-150, Escape, Explorer and Mustang have previously been announced.

With Ford now mostly getting out of its loss-making sedan business, however, the company could be on a better track to invest in new technologies. It’s already made further investments in its mobility services this year, as well as being fully invested in its “smart city” concept for the long-term.

Ford reported its first quarter net income for the year at $1.7 billion, up 9 percent year over year. However, its mobility division reported losses of $102 million for the quarter, which the company attributed to a one-time $58 million investment.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/25/17282...arnings-q1

Some more data:

If you have been thinking that you might buy a Mercury -- that division has been defunct since  January 4, 2011.

I haven't seen any news on the Lincoln division. Lincoln vehicles, I understand, are pricey -- and profitable, so I would not expect those to quite being sold.

If you are thinking of buying a new small car in the next five years, you might not have a Ford in your future.

The last member of the Lost Generation with a verifiable birth-date, a Japanese woman, has died at the age of 117.

Nabi Tajima (田島 ナビ Tajima Nabi, 4 August 1900 – 21 April 2018)[1][2][3] was a Japanese supercentenarian.[4] She was also the oldest recorded Japanese and Asian person in history and the world's third oldest person ever to be validated by modern standards, behind Jeanne Calment and Sarah Knauss.[5]

She was the last living person to have been certified to have been born in the nineteenth century.


Tajima was born in Araki, an area which was then Wan Village, in the westernmost part of Kikaijima Island. From February 2002 until her death, she has resided in a nursing home named "Kikaien" (喜界園) in Kikai, Kagoshima.[6]

Her husband, Tominishi Tajima (田島 富二子), died in 1991 at the age of 95 according to some sources[7] or possibly 1992 or 1993 according to others.[8] She had nine children (seven sons and two daughters).[7] In September 2017 she was reported as having around 160 descendants, including great-great-great-grandchildren.[6]

Tajima became the oldest living person in Japan on 27 September 2015, upon the death of a 115-year-old anonymous woman who was living in Tokyo.[9] On 15 September 2017, upon the death of the 117-year-old Jamaican Violet Brown, Tajima became the oldest living person in the world—and the last surviving person born in the 19th century.[10] On 10 April 2018, Nabi Tajima became the world's third oldest person ever due to surpassing the final age of Lucy Hannah.[5] Others have claimed to be older, but none of these claims have been sufficiently validated.

She stated that her longevity was due to sleeping soundly and eating delicious food.[11]

Tajima died on 21 April 2018 at her home in Kikai, Kagoshima, aged 117 years, 260 days.[12] Chiyo Miyako, also from Japan, became the world's oldest living person.


(from Wikipedia)

(Chiyo Miyako was born on May 1, 1901, also in Japan, and is already the person to have achieved the ninth-oldest age of anyone with a verifiable date of birth).

The Lost Generation of Eleanor Roosevelt and Aaron Copland is now completely extinct.

Even though we are well into the 4T, defining it can be a hard thing.  This isn't a new phenomenon, after all, in 1862 the Confederates thought they were the future.  When thinking about how to interpret the current 4T I find it best to start at the ending.  That seems counterintuitive, except that the ending may be the one thing we know.  We can't even agree on when the 4T started (I tend to think Hurricane Katrina, give or take a couple years).  But the one thing we know is this - the big winner of the 4T will be the Millenials.  

We know this because a key component of the Generational Theory is that the future is shaped by the Hero generation coming of age.  That's the Millenials.  The patterns of behavior following the Greatest Generation (GI) are already being established.  The Greatest Generation started becoming a force in electoral politics early in the Great Depression.  All signs are pointing towards increased activism from a Millenial Generation of which, only 29% think the country is headed in the right direction (link below).  

So where are the Millenials taking us?  For starters, Millenials are only 55% white, so expect the future to accept much more diversity.  According to studies, Millenials believe in education and place lower value on traditional roles of marriage and family.  About 1/3 of Millenials say faith plays no part in their lives.   Politically, 57% of Millenials view themselves as "Consistently or Mostly" Liberal while only 12% call themselves "Consistently or Mostly" Conservative.  27% approve of Trump's job performance.

Given where we currently are and the viewpoints of the Millenials, Trump and his supporters seem to have a very short window to change the opinions of the Millenials en masse.  If they aren't able to accomplish that, it will likely be lights out for any effectiveness from the Trump Administration after the November 2018 elections.  At which point, it is hard to imagine the Trump ideal winning the future.       

https://impact.vice.com/en_us/article/gy...-than-ever

Hi all,
I am new to this site, though I first read the original Generations book when it was new and have discussed it and re-read it ever since.  It has really shaped my view of the world since early adulthood.  

It's a pretty interesting time to be alive in America right now.  We can see the 4T really speeding along now.  On the bright side, this turning does not seem to necessarily have to come with war and major bloodshed (maybe it will but that seems very avoidable at this point).  What we are seeing is the rapid destruction of the institutions that have been the hallmarks of the cycle.  

In government, we have a President elected by a minority of the voting public with the express goal of destroying the establishment (i.e. institutions and norms).  The Executive is at war with itself, with the President attacking the FBI and CIA, while hollowing out the State Department and Justice Department - leaving positions unfilled and making direct attacks on leadership.  Congress is an ocean of partisanship with all the old norms of bipartisanship fraying at the edges.  Gerrymandering has effectively ended democracy in some states and the filibuster is being picked apart at the edges and its demise is probably just a matter of time.  Even the Supreme Court is affected.  A popularly elected President was denied his Constitutional duty to select a justice and the selection was made by a President who lost the popular vote and with the support of Senators representing 45% of the US population.  What is the integrity of such institutions?   

Outside the world of government technology is destroying the norms most of us have grown up with.  Retail shopping has changed, financial investing has changed, job availability has changed, and while we have cool gadgets in our pockets, technology has even messed up music.  The world is changing rapidly and we will all adapt or die.  Many Gen Xers are choosing death (no surprise the opioid crisis is killing off middle aged white men).  The jobs of tomorrow will not look like the jobs of yesterday and economic anxiety is crippling communities across the nation.  All while the country is as rich as it has ever been - just in the hands of the few.  

An interesting time to visit a site like this.