http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/05/1.../?mod=e2fb

Quote:New research from a pair of Italian economists documents an extraordinary fact: The wealthiest families in Florence today are descended from the wealthiest families of Florence nearly 600 years ago.

The two economists — Guglielmo Barone and Sauro Mocetti of the Bank of Italy — compared data on Florentine taxpayers in 1427 against tax data in 2011. Because Italian surnames are highly regional and distinctive, they could compare the income of families with a certain surname today, to those with the same surname in 1427. They found that the occupations, income and wealth of those distant ancestors with the same surname can help predict the occupation, income and wealth of their descendants today.
As they wrote for the economics commentary website VoxEU, “The top earners among the current taxpayers were found to have already been at the top of the socioeconomic ladder six centuries ago.”

Their research was made possible by a fiscal crisis. In 1427, Florence was near bankrupt from an ongoing war with Milan and so the Priors of the Republic conducted a tax census of about 10,000 citizens. They took stock of the name and surname of the head of household, their occupation and their wealth.


http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/05/1.../?mod=e2fb

Some fun news! This Fall Survivor will feature "Millennials vs. Gen X" as their competing team alliances. The trailer featured a lot of discussions about the two by each other, and why their generation is better and the other less likely to win, etc. So, Strauss and Howe becomes reality TV! 

Too bad Boomers are left out. Some boomers still compete on the regular shows, but they are less common now. I am not so easily reconciled with Boomers being less prominent, or even no longer considered the younger generation! The newer ones are so clueless about so many things. Not that many Boomers today have not also joined the Clueless America Club; they have! Just look at who supports the Tea Party and Donald Trump. But I have some hope for millennials at least in politics, if they learn some civics that is. And of course, a few pop Millennial pop icons as opposed to the grungy Gen X ones.


I still like Survivor and watch it regularly. The original reality TV show of our era, it does focus on real personalities in depth and how they deal with the rigors of the game. I don't like the other reality shows. But, with no money, talent, or real concern with intellectual and moral depth being present in Broadcast TV comedies and dramas today, Survivor is the only thing left to watch except PBS, oldies and game shows. And of course it's a game show too.

Right now, with X hitting 50+, student loans, and mortality are coming up, in addition to the usual suspects of real estate, consumer debt, and financials.

I'm guessing about 2030 for the fun to start there. 

10:1 at least.

While making other updates I downloaded and added a bunch of new smiles.

Stein, the Green Party candidate, might be the only alternative to Donald Trump, if the Republicans pull an "October surprise" and force Hillary out of the race and there is no time for the Democrats to put another candidate on the ballot.

And if this sounds far-fetched, there was such a "surprise" in the 2002 Senate race in New Jersey, in which the Democratic incumbent, Bob Torricelli, was forced off the ballot at the last minute due to a conveniently-timed "scandal."  However, the Democrats managed to have Frank Lautenberg placed on the ballot to replace Torricelli, and Lautenberg went on to win the election.

But would that be legal in a Presidential election?

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Note: This assessment can change rapidly should the Republicans not play obstructionist games with the nomination of a Justice of the Supreme Court. Anyone with an approval rating below 40% is in extreme danger of defeat, no matter what State he represents. Many pols with such low approval ratings retire  or get defeated in a primary.

Of course, should Republicans act responsibly with an Obama appointment this assessment reverses.

Update: Vermont, Vermont Public Radio/Castleton: Pat Leahy is up 65-14. I doubt that anyone can dispute this one.
From March (last update)


My take (and rationale):



Approval polls only.


Gray -- no incumbent at risk.
White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Democratic incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red -- Democrat running for re-election with current polls available.

Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40       8     0
40-44    2     0
45-49   1      2
50-54    3      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      3
retire    3      3  
indict     0      1
oth off  1      0
no poll  6      1


Now -- my projection for the 2016 Senate election:

Sure R:

Alabama
Idaho
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Likely R:
Alaska
Iowa (from Sure R)
Kansas


Edge R:
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana

Tossups
Arizona (from Edge R)
Georgia (from Edge R)
Nevada


All but one of the current tossups are current R seats.

Edge D:
Colorado
Florida*
Missouri* (from toss-up)
New Hampshire*
North Carolina* (from toss-up)
Ohio*
Pennsylvania*


Likely D:
Oregon
Washington


Solid D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois*
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin*


*flip (so far all R to D)

New Jersey looks like a fairly sure hold should current, but indicted, Senator Bob Menendez be compelled to resign.

Will KY & OR get Berned today?

Gabrielle, I hate to break this to you darling, but women already get equal pay to men.  If a businessman could save 25%, 23% or whatever the new number is by hiring women over men he'd be smart to fire all the men and hire only women.  The so-called pay gap is a complete myth based on economic ignorance and statistical chicanery. It only surfaces if you take the earnings of all men and all women and do a few simple calculations without taking into consideration other factors, not the least of which is men work more overtime than women and work in higher paying fields than women.