Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 11-19-2019 (11-19-2019, 08:22 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:(11-18-2019, 04:25 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: You're confusing nationalism with China's CCP religious cult. Every country experiences nationalism and xenophobia in a generational It's a pretty well established theory in the social sciences that humans are wired to favor those who look like them. This may be a leftover trait from our prehistoric past, since tribes came into existence for protection, being essentially extended families. the ethnocentric part was just an outgrowth of that. We can certainly overcome that trait, but it's easy to fall prey to the demons. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-19-2019 ** 19-Nov-2019 World View: China's 'Middle Kingdom' religious cult (11-19-2019, 08:22 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The Japanese have at least as racist a view of their own As you know, I've spent thousands of hours studying Chinese history going back millennia, and I've written thousands of articles and a full length book. So, Chinese history is drenched and permeated with this "Middle Kingdom" concept -- there was the Kingdom of heaven, there was China (the Middle Kingdom), and there were the barbarians (you and me and the rest of the world). This is what I called a CCP "religious cult" -- but not just since the CCP came to power, but back through every government and every dynasty I've looked at for millennia. So it's true that Japan and the Europeans are "racist," especially during a generational Crisis era, but nothing like the Chinese religious cult. The Chinese religious cult is poisonous, and is nothing like anything I've seen in any other country. Just to take one example, I've also written a full length book on Iran, and Iran has had Persian empires going back for millennia, just like China, but there is absolutely nothing in Iran's history that even vaguely resembles the Chinese "Middle Kingdom" cult. You might look at what's going on in Iran today, and you might call the Persians "racist," and you might even say that since the 1979 civil war Iran has had its own religious cult, but once again, there is nothing in Iran like the Chinese "Middle Kingdom" religious cult that has permeated Chinese culture, not just since 1979, not just for a century, but for almost three millennia. I haven't written a whole book on Japan or Korea, but I've analyzed them for thousands of articles, and I can say with absolute certainty that while each may be "racist" in its own way, neither culture contains anything remotely like the poisonous cult culture that China has had for millennia. It's no exaggeration to say that this poisonous culture makes China both unique in history and extremely dangerous. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-19-2019 ** 19-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong protesters folding like a cheap suit Guest Wrote:> I think the Hong Kongers will fold like cheap suits. Just like I The problem with posting anonymously and not registering, creating an account, and posting under your own account is that claims of past "correct" predictions cannot be verified, so are useless. At any rate, it doesn't really matter, because the situations in Catalonia and Hong Kong are completely different. In Catalonia, the separatists folded like cheap suits because all their government officials were being arrested, so they had no leadership. Furthermore, half the population of Catalonia was opposed to the separatist movement, and there was no group of people in Spain outside Catalonia who were particularly sympathetic. In Hong Kong, the government is already controlled by the CCP through Carrie Lam, so there's no government leadership to arrest. Second, the Hong Kong protests are organic. There were some pro-democracy MPs or activists arrested, but they hadn't been providing leadership, so the arrests had no effect except to turn the arrested kids into heroes. Third, the pro-democracy protesters are generally supported by 70-80% of the population, and there is also popular support from Cantonese speaking people on the mainland in southern China. There are other factors too. The Spanish politicians could promise the Catalonians a bright future as part of Spain. But the CCP can only promise that the Hong Kongers will be treated more and more harshly in the future, and that they and their children will be subjected to a full-scale brutal CCP dictatorship in 2047, with all the oppression and atrocities that go with the CCP. One more factor: Catalonia was always part of Spain, while Hong Kong was part of Britain until 1997, so they remember what freedom was like. So I don't know if you're speaking for the CCP when you say that the Hong Kong protesters will fold like a cheap suit, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics there will be at most a pause, if that, before a new round of organic protests begin. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-20-2019 ** 20-Nov-2019 World View: BBC reports torture of British consulate employee The BBC this morning is reporting a horrific story about how Simon Cheng, a former British consulate employee in Hong Kong, was abducted, jailed, blindfolded and tortured for 15 days, during an August trip to China. Cheng had been collecting information about the Hong Kong protesters on assignment from the British consulate in Hong Kong. The CCP frequently arrests and tortures foreign visitors to China, but this was a particularly egregious situation because of Cheng's connection to the UK consulate. The UK foreign secretary Dominic Raab said he was "shocked and appalled" by what happened, and summoned the Chinese ambassador to demand an explanation. China's foreign ministry has reportedly said that it's ambassador would "refuse the invitation." That's really hilarious since China's foreign ministry at the same time has just summoned a US diplomat, William Klein, to threaten retaliation if Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong "Human Rights and Democracy" bill that the Senate passed unanimously on Tuesday. The House of Representatives has passed its own bill, and the two will have to be reconciled before the bill can be sent to Trump for signature. However, the bill has passed with more than enough votes so that a Trump veto would be overridden. It thus seems almost certain that, one way or another, the bill will become law. Hong Kong enjoys a special U.S. trading consideration that bolsters its status as a world financial center. The bill threatens to remove this special consideration if China violates human rights in Hong Kong. It also provides for sanctions against officials responsible for human rights violations in Hong Kong. The Senate then passed a second bill, also unanimously, that would ban the export of certain munitions to Hong Kong police forces. It bans the export of items such as tear gas, pepper spray, rubber bullets and stun guns. On Wednesday, China's foreign ministry spokesman said the following: Quote: "On November 19, the US Senate passed the Hong Kong It's always hilarious when the CCP foreign ministry sleazebags accuse anyone of violating international law, since they've made it clear that international law doesn't apply to them or be obeyed by them (the Master Race), and only applies to the rest of us, the barbarians. Wednesday's news of the abduction, jailing, blindfolding and torture of a former British consulate employee comes just a few days after the news of the leak of hundreds of top secret Chinese documents on the jailings and enslavement of millions of Uighurs. ** 18-Nov-19 World View -- Trove of leaked China documents detail jailing of Xinjiang's Muslim Uighurs ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191118.htm#e191118 John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/ ---- Sources: -- Simon Cheng: Former UK consulate worker says he was tortured in China https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50457262 (BBC, 20-Nov-2019) -- Senate unanimously passes Hong Kong 'Human Rights and Democracy' bill https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-unanimously-passes-hong-kong-human-rights-democracy-bill-n1086401 (Reuters, 20-Nov-2019) -- Simon Cheng / Former UK official in Hong Kong 'tortured in 15-day China ordeal' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/20/former-uk-official-simon-cheng-in-hong-kong-tortured-in-15-day-china-ordeal (Guardian, London, 20-Nov-2019) -- Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang's Remarks on US Senate Passing Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1716773.shtml (China Foreign Ministry, 20-Nov-2019) -- China summons US diplomat, vows to retaliate if Donald Trump signs Hong Kong democracy act into law https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3038516/china-will-retaliate-if-donald-trump-signs-hong-kong-human (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 20-Nov-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 11-20-2019 (11-19-2019, 07:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 19-Nov-2019 World View: China's 'Middle Kingdom' religious cult Unless you read Chinese, you have at most a superficial understanding of China no matter how much you read in translated material. One big difference -- Japan has been occupied only once in its history, and then by the least objectionable overlords in history. You know who. The Mongols, if they ever reached Japan, were shipwreck victims -- survival questionable. The Mongols brutalized China badly. Japan was strong enough to be a colonizer instead of a victim, and it was in better shape to establish capitalism, industry, and (until such was aborted) and inchoate democracy. And, yes, Japan was part of the brutalization of Chinese history. If something went really bad in America, like a fascist regime, and I had to choose between Chinese and Japanese occupation, I would prefer Japanese. Of course I am no criminal, and I might be delighted to purge criminals into the Japanese penal system, which is very harsh due to thought reform. Political offenders in China get about the same treatment as drug dealers in Japan... don't deal drugs in Japan. Quote:So it's true that Japan and the Europeans are "racist," especially The Japanese thug regime of WWII was horrific, without any question. If the Nazis were more systematic in their cruelty, the Japanese of World War II were unruly in the extreme. Quote:Just to take one example, I've also written a full length book on The Communist Party of the People's Republic of China has gutted the Marxist-Leninist-Maoist heritage except for symbolism and the dictatorship. As such it is a fascist party in all but name. Iran under the theocracy is fascist. I concede that the current CCP is an improvement over the Maoist madness, but democratization will be difficult in China. Maybe the Kuomintang made a huge mistake by, despite admiration for the United States, not establishing a federal system. As you can expect from me I am ready for a cheap swipe at President Trump: he is gutting the American political heritage, reducing our Founding Fathers to icons in favor of what I would expect to develop into a "Christian and Corporate State" that fits the ideology of the TEA Party faction that has taken over the Republican Party and transformed it into semi-fascist Party. Quote:I haven't written a whole book on Japan or Korea, but I've analyzed China is a multicultural empire with a highly-centralized regime. Japan and Korea are nearly mono-ethnic, and Korea is effectively split into two mono-cultural societies. Could democracy flourish in China? It seems to do so in Taiwan, and I see no indication that overseas Chinese are hostile to democracy where they are. The danger of China is not so much its ideology; it is the soul-crushing dictatorship. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 11-22-2019 (11-19-2019, 07:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: As you know, I've spent thousands of hours studying Chinese history And the book doesn't say anything like what you're saying now. Apparently you've forgotten everything you learned from researching the book. Quote:Third, the pro-democracy protesters are generally supported Not correct. The original protests against the extradition bill were supported by 70-80% of the population, which is why the bill was withdrawn. The current violent protests are likely supported by 20-30% of the population at best. Bashing peoples' skulls in with bricks and pouring gasoline on people and setting them on fire, as the protesters are now doing, will make you less popular like that. The current protesters aren't protesting mainland Chinese rule, anyway. They're protesting Hong Kong government rule. They're protesting against how Hong Kong business interests have what they view as an outsize influence on the Hong Kong government, and basically want a one person one vote government instead. These are the same protests that used to crop up from time to time against the Hong Kong government when it was a British Crown Colony, for essentially the same reasons. The issues are the same whether the colonial power is British or Chinese. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-22-2019 ** 22-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong (11-22-2019, 01:56 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > And the book doesn't say anything like what you're saying now. I don't know what you're talking about. Quote:> Third, the pro-democracy protesters are (11-22-2019, 01:56 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Not correct. The original protests against the extradition bill All I can tell you is that I hear this all the time on the BBC, Bloomberg, Fox News and al-Jazeera. The majority of Hong Kongers are opposed to the violence, but they support the goals of the pro-democracy protesters. I'm not sure how you're distinguishing between "mainland Chinese rule" and the Hong Kong government. By this time, most people agree that Carrie Lam is simply a puppet of the CCP, so there's not significant distinction. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-22-2019 ** 22-Nov-2019 World View: Uprisings in Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Venezuela The continuing chaos in Bolivia has resulted in a mainstream media spate of stories about demonstrations, populism and uprising in several Latin American countries, particularly: Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, and Venezuela. These stories are sometimes extended to Colombia, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, Haiti, Kashmir, Afghanistan, and of course Hong Kong. The stories all give the same core reason: poverty. A lazy or ignorant reporter assigned to write a story about demonstrations or riots in some country, just has to check the inflation rate, unemployment rate, grocery prices, or gasoline prices, and simply blame the riots on one or more of those. In fact, the news story could be written by a bot. The problem with just naming poverty as the reason is that there's always some level of poverty in every country, including countries where there are no demonstrations and riots. Some reason has to be found why poverty in one country is different from the same level of poverty in another country, and that question is never addressed. The articles about riots in Latin America point to the rise of Socialist or left-wing governments, but once again, give no reason why socialist governments are rising in some countries but not others. Mostly, the reporters are confused about whether to blame the socialism for the poverty or the poverty for the socialism. Sometimes they blame both of them on Trump. In the case of Latin America, not a single article that I read today mentioned the split between indigenous people (Amerindians) versus the descendants of European invaders and mestizos (children of intermarriage). This is an important issue in every Latin American country, and it's an issue that the mainstream "reporters" are apparently too embarrassed to mention, even though it's the most important issue in most cases, and even though this issue is enormously obvious to the people who live in the country. As I described in my recent article on Bolivia, the European descendants marginalize the indigenous people, resulting in political differences. These political differences can turn into demonstrations, riots and uprisings when the economy worsens, since the marginalized indigenous people are the hurt the most. ** 15-Nov-19 World View -- Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191115.htm#e191115 One problem for mainstream reporters is that to understand what's going on requires knowing a little bit about the history of the country they're reporting on. College students today are taking far-left courses in sociology, women's studies and underwater basket-weaving, where they're taught nothing about history, and are taught that Socialism is wonderful. These children know nothing about history, and believe that "history always begins this morning," so they look on far-left socialist movements as a good thing, not even having a clue that what's going on is not socialism vs capitalism, but Europeans vs Amerindians. Riots and demonstrations have been spreading among Latin American countries, initially led by Venezuela, as indigenous people in one country follow the lead of indigenous rioters in another country. Within the last couple of weeks, Colombia has joined this list of rioters. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are two important trends in Latin America. First, most of these Latin American countries had their last generational crisis civil wars in the 1960s or thereabout, and so by the 58-Year Hypothesis, they're coming due for the next crisis civil war. At present they're in a generational Unraveling era, and so there are periods of demonstrations alternating with periods of ceasefires, but a new full-scale crisis civil war is not expected for another few years. Second, most of the world is in a generational Crisis era, and a feature of this era is that central banks have been cutting back on "printing" money, which means that there's less money in the world, which means that there's less money per capita, resulting in poverty among margialized people. In the meantime, the world is approaching a new world war, and the demonstrations, riots and uprisings in the Latin American countries and elsewhere will in the end be folded into the world war. ---- Sources: -- Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile / South America's uprisings are about more than politics https://www.axios.com/south-america-uprisings-populism-673cf218-7df1-4862-b99c-fe7d0f9d8b17.html (Axios, 21-Nov-2019) -- Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Venezuela / Opinion: Latin America needs solidarity https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-latin-america-needs-solidarity/a-51038560 (Deutsche Welle, 29-Oct-2019) -- Latin America’s upheaval should finally shatter conventional wisdom about the region https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/07/latin-americas-upheaval-should-finally-shatter-conventional-wisdom-about-region/ (Washington Post, 22-Nov-2019) -- Roundup: Mass protests hint at deeper crises behind the headlines https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2019/11/22/Mass-protests-political-freedoms-crises-headlines (Memri, 22-Nov-2019) -- Leftist Government In Latin America: A Comparison Of Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, And Venezuela http://lanic.utexas.edu/project/etext/llilas/portal/portal089/leftist.pdf (University of Texas, PDF, 2008): RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 11-23-2019 (11-22-2019, 03:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I'm not sure how you're distinguishing between "mainland Chinese rule" and the Hong Kong government. By this time, most people agree that Carrie Lam is simply a puppet of the CCP, so there's not significant distinction. A rare point of total agreement. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-24-2019 ** 24-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong elections JCP Wrote:> THURSDAY: Police confirm evacuating mainland #China university I don't believe that this is a change. As I understand it, there are only a couple of dozen protesters still hiding away inside the university, and the police have said they'll wait them out. Hong Kong is holding elections on Sunday. Everyone has been on their best behavior this past week, in order to get votes. As of this time (midnight ET = Sunday 1 pm in HK), al-Jazeera is reporting much larger than usual turnout. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-24-2019 ** 24-Nov-2019 World View: 'Stunning upsets' in historic Hong Kong elections
In Hong Kong, Sunday's local district council elections are headed for a historic wipe-out in favor of the Pan Democrats pro-democracy camp, and terrible for city leader Carrie Lam, and a huge rebuff to the Beijing-based Chinese Communist Party (CCP), according to reports on several tv channels, as of this time (Sunday 1 pm ET = Monday 2 am in Hong Kong). The Hong Kong based South China Morning Post is saying the same thing, pointing to a "stunning upset," with well-established pro-Beijing candidates Junius Ho and Michael Tien already losing their seats. These local district council elections are considered extremely significant because they're open to any candidates that choose to run. This is in contrast to the regular legislative elections and the election for city leader, where the only candidates permitted to run have to be approved by the CCP. Sunday's elections had a record turnout of 71.2%, while previous similar elections had turnouts of 49%. Many of those turning out were young first-time voters. These reports are all preliminary, but are expected to hold unless there's a massive reversal in the official vote count. These historic upsets are going to "put wind in the sails" of the pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and the pro-separatists in Taiwan. The CCP in Beijing is already close to full-scale panic over what's happening in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Sunday's vote will prove to the CCP that their worst fears and anxieties are coming true, and it may cause them to panic. As I keep pointing out, the CCP has a record of doing one incredibly stupid thing after another. I don't know what the CCP will do about the situation in Hong Kong, but I can say with certainty that whatever they do, it will make the situation worse. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/ ---- Sources: -- Hong Kong elections: Junius Ho and Michael Tien lose district council seats in stunning upsets https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3039132/results-blog (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019) -- Hong Kong’s district council elections traditionally handle municipal matters. This year it was a global event as almost 3 million residents clamoured to be heard https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3039142/hong-kongs-district-council-elections-traditionally-handle (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019) -- Massive turnout in Hong Kong vote seen as pro-democracy test https://apnews.com/de8a8e79d7a640ccbf80e96c79e41828 (AP, 24-Nov-2019) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 11-24-2019 (11-22-2019, 03:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: All I can tell you is that I hear this all the time on the BBC, So all you do is parrot the mainstream media on Hong Kong? That explains a lot. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-24-2019 ** 24-Nov-2019 Hong Kong pro-democracy victory (11-22-2019, 03:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > All I can tell you is that I hear this all the time on the BBC, (11-24-2019, 02:39 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > So all you do is parrot the mainstream media on Hong Kong? That You seem bitter and angry that the pro-democracy candidates are winning massively in Hong Kong, and Carrie Lam's pro-CCP candidates are losing. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 11-24-2019 You're projecting. I couldn't care less about how prodemocracy candidates do in seats that have little to no power anyway. The Hong Kong government will remain in the control of the business interests, as the structure of the government has always guaranteed. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-24-2019 ** 24-Nov-2019 Inanity (11-24-2019, 09:42 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > You're projecting. I couldn't care less about how prodemocracy Well, if that's true, then once again I have no idea what you're talking about, except that every once in a while you enjoy emitting some inane, incoherent criticism of me. 25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainl - John J. Xenakis - 11-25-2019 *** 25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray **** Pro-democracy supporters celebrate huge gains in the district council elections (AP) In what is being described as a historic election, pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong's Pan Democracy party have won a massive victory in electing members for local district councils. The elections had a record turnout of 71%, while similar elections in 2015 had a turnout of just 47%. Many of those turning out this time were young first-time voters. Votes are still being counted. At this time (Sunday evening ET = Monday morning in Hong Kong), the pro-democracy parties have won 201 seats, while pro-CCP parties have won only 28 seats, with 12 seats for independents, out of a total of 452 seats. The other 221 seats have not yet been determined at this time. Roughly speaking, it appears that pro-democracy parties will control 3/4 of the seats, whereas prior to this election they controlled roughly 1/4 of the seats. So this is a "historic" reversal at this level of government. There have been some "stunning upsets," with well-established pro-CCP candidates Junius Ho and Michael Tien already losing their seats. These people have been harshly critical of the pro-democracy demonstrations, and have threatened jailing and violence of protesters, even peaceful ones. In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils only control such things as parks and taxicabs. They are not as powerful as the city's Legislative Council, which controls the citywide government. The difference is that anyone is permitted to run for the district council positions, while the only candidates that can run for the Legislative Council must first be approved by the CCP in Beijing. So the local councils are far more democratic, but the Legislative Council is anti-democratic, but far more powerful. The huge victory follows five months of pro-democracy street protests, mostly peaceful but sometimes becoming violent. The pro-CCP camp had referred to a "silent majority" of voters who who would vote for their candidates, to show their rejection of the violence of the street protesters. But actually, violence worked both ways in this election. Some voted for the pro-CCP candidates because of the street protest violence, but there was also plenty of violence on the other side -- attacks on the peaceful protesters by police and by white-shirt "triad thugs." **** **** Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands' **** These historic upsets are going to "put wind in the sails" of the pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and the pro-separatists in Taiwan. In Hong Kong, pro-democracy activists are now demanding that Carrie Lam finally respond to the five demands that the protesters announced months ago. The first demand was the withdrawal of the "extradition bill," which would have permitted the CCP to abduct and arrest people in Hong Kong and bring them to the mainland for prosecution. Carrie Lam finally withdrew the bill, but only after several months of equivocation. During that period, the activists expanded what they wanted to a list of five demands. The five demands are for the withdrawal of the bill, an agreement not to call the clashes of June 12 a riot, amnesty for those arrested on that day, a commission inquiry into allegations of excessive use of force by the police and a push for genuine universal suffrage. It was thought that the CCP would never agree to any of these demands (except the first), but now activists are saying that the climate must change because of the overwhelming pro-democracy victory in Hong Kong, which refutes the CCP claim of a "silent majority" supporting CCP. The activists claim that this victory forces Carrie Lam to open negotiations on the remaining four demands. The CCP could do a lot to defuse the situation in Hong Kong by permitting Carrie Lam to open those negotiations with the pro-democracy activists. But that would be the smart thing to do, and as I've written many times, the CCP always one incredibly stupid thing after another. We'll see, but my expectation is that the CCP will do something stupid that will make things worse. **** **** Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election **** Pro-separatists activists in Taiwan are taking note of the historic election in Hong Kong, and are hoping that they'll affect Taiwan's presidential race in January. The CCP considers Taiwan to be part of China, and any move to declare Taiwan a separation nation would be an act of secession that would trigger a Chinese military invasion. Taiwan's current president is Tsai Ing-wen, from the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Tsai is known to favor complete independence for Taiwan, although she always uses weasel words in talking about it, so as not to trigger a Chinese invasion. However, Tsai has spoken openly of her support for the protesters in Hong Kong, much to the displeasure of the CCP. Tsai's opponent is Han Kuo-yu, who is the candidate of the Kuomintang (KMT) party, which favors merging Taiwan with China. The CCP has been wooing Taiwan for years by saying that Taiwan could have a "one country, two systems" just like Hong Kong, and wouldn't that be wonderful? Tsai’s latest campaign advertisement makes the assurance that “Taiwan will not become Hong Kong”, while calling on voters to reject the “one country, two systems” model. Thus, Sunday's elections in Hong Kong are thought to favor Tsai's re-election. The reasoning is that voters will see the overwhelming rejection of the pro-CCP candidates as supporting Tsai in Taiwan. The CCP in Beijing is already close to full-scale panic over what's happening in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Sunday's vote will prove to the CCP that their worst fears and anxieties are coming true, and it may cause them to panic. As I keep pointing out, the CCP has a record of doing one incredibly stupid thing after another. I don't know what the CCP will do about the situation in Hong Kong or Taiwan, but I can say with certainty that whatever they do, it will make the situation worse. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Carrie Lam,Legislative Council, Pan Democratic party, Democratic Alliance For The Betterment Of Hong Kong, Junius Ho, Michael Tien, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP, Han Kuo-yu, Kuomintang, KMT Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-25-2019 ** 25-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong's Carrie Lam speaks At Monday 9 pm ET = Tuesday 10 am in Hong Kong, I watched Hong Kong's leader Carrie Lam live on tv give a brief speech about the disastrous elections. If I understood her correctly, she's decided how to react to the massive election loss: She's going to appoint a commission to determine the root cause why there are pro-democracy demonstrations. I didn't hear a word even acknowledging the pro-democracy concerns, or any word of compromise. Instead, there will be a commission whose foregone conclusion will be to absolve the government and the CCP of any responsibility. I said that I didn't know what the CCP was going to do, but I could guarantee that whatever they did would make the situation worse, and it looks like we're on our way. Incredible! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-26-2019 ** 26-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan richard5za Wrote:> Both Hong Kong and Taiwan are regarded by the CCP as Chinese The CCP thugs really don't care about anything except themselves and their Mandate from Heaven, so they're baffled by the Hong Kong crisis, especially since the recent elections shows that most of their working assumptions have been dead wrong. China's history is filled with massive anti-government rebellions, and many of them were triggered by religious movements. That's why the CCP is so hysterically paranoid about religions. That's why they beat, torture, rape and jail Christians, Buddhists and Muslims, and sometimes even Daoists. The Taiping Rebellion (1852-64) in particular was led by a Christian convert who believed that he was the son of God and the younger brother of Jesus. The rebellion began in the south and spread north. Hong Xiuquan became the very charismatic leader of the God Worshipping Society, in a domain of southern China called Taiping Tianguo (Heavenly Kingdom of Eternal Peace). He gained thousands of followers as his word spread, leading to the massive Taiping Rebellion. The CCP is VERY well aware of that history. They're also well aware that Mao's Communist Revolution anti-government rebellion started in the south and spread north. So that's the history that the CCP thugs are dealing with. Xi Jinping would happily just flatten all of Hong Kong if he thought that would keep him safe. But doing anything so brutal would risk triggering an anti-CCP rebellion in southern China. Furthermore, both Donald Trump and the US Congress are tying Hong Kong human rights to US-China trade and sanctions, and the Chinese are increasingly desperate for a trade deal. This infuriates the CCP thugs who say that Hong Kong policy is the internal affair of China, and that the barbarians in Washington should never dare to criticize the leaders of the Master Race. So I'm in agreement with those analysts who say that the CCP will NOT send in the army -- since the army can't accomplish anything anyway that the local police can't accomplish. As things stand now, it's the Hong Kong police, rather than the CCP, who are receiving international criticism, and the CCP would like it to remain that way. However, in my opinion, the CCP would change its policy in a nanosecond if there is any sign that the protests in Hong Kong are spreading to the mainland in southern China. This is the real fear of the CCP thugs, and so they're content to treat Hong Kong protests as the "new normal" for the time being. Guest Wrote:> I have relatives in Taipei. I would like to ask the writer of this Guest Wrote:> I would like to add that some local media say an invasion is Hong Kong and Taiwan are really two completely different situations, since Hong Kong is officially a territory of China, while Taiwan is viewed internationally as an independent nation, despite the curses of the CCP thugs. Then there's also the problem there would be no military response if China's military started smashing Hong Kong since, after all, it is officially a territory of China. On the other hand, Taiwan has a mutual defense treaty with the US, and a military invasion of Taiwan would almost certainly lead to a war with the US. So the two situations are completely different, and a violent crackdown in Hong Kong would not necessarily lead to an invasion of Taiwan at all. However, any sort of internal rebellion on the mainland would change the CCP calculation, and lead to diversionary invasions of Japan and Taiwan. If you're looking for a time interval, I would guess several months after the internal rebellion began. utahbob Wrote:> You might find this interesting. As the saying goes "follow the This is a very interesting article, because it shows how China's economy is falling apart at the edges, and as Higgie always points out: "While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently." In the case of China, this would be one of China's massive internal rebellions, and this would lead quickly to an external war as a diversionary tactic. utahbob Wrote:> John, good analysis on your comment dated Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:02 Fantastic! This is a really great analysis. The only thing that I would add is that you may be assigning too much rationality to the CCP. The strategy of a "warmup" war is not realistic in a generational Crisis era, when people are highly nationalistic and xenophobic, and do not have the patience for a "warmup." At the first sign of any military clash of any kind, the nationalists in China would be calling for a full-scale invasion of Japan and Taiwan, and things would start to move. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 11-26-2019 (11-24-2019, 10:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Well, if that's true, then once again I have no idea what you're Just trying to get you to further improve your forecasts with more realistic views of what's going on. This, for instance: Quote:In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils only Which is why, as you point out, the Chinese government will try to stay out of things unless the unrest threatens to spill over into the mainland, or, I would add, unless Carrie Lam's goverment starts entertaining thoughts of independence. Quote:However, any sort of internal rebellion on the mainland would change What would this be diverting from? If there were actually an internal rebellion, the rebels wouldn't be diverted because of an external war, and the government wouldn't want to divert loyalists from staying loyal. An external war with Japan or Taiwan would be far more likely to start because Japan or Taiwan intervened to extract their nationals or protect their interests. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-26-2019 ** 26-Nov-2019 World View: China's nationalist anti-Japan propaganda (11-24-2019, 10:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils (11-26-2019, 05:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Which is why, as you point out, the Chinese government will try to Lol! (11-24-2019, 10:08 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > However, any sort of internal rebellion on the mainland would (11-26-2019, 05:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > What would this be diverting from? If there were actually an It's not exactly an unheard of practice for a military leader to divert forces attacking him to start fighting another enemy. This is a subject area that I researched a very great deal for my book, which is not surprising since the book is titled "War between China and Japan." Some brief excerpts: The student pro-democracy protests that led to the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 frightened CCP officials, who realized that being pro-democracy meant that the young people were becoming increasingly contemptuous of communist ideology. That wasn't the only thing that happened around that time. On December 26, 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and all the former Soviet republics became independent self-governing nations. Arguably, the collapse of the Soviet Union was more traumatic to the CCP than even the Tiananmen Square massacre. Suddenly, the leadership of the CCP were staring death in the face, as they considered the fact that something like the Tiananmen Square protests could force the Chinese Communist Party to collapse as well. Ever since the Bolshevik Revolution, Russian communism had always been the role model for Chinese communism. If Russian communism could collapse, then so could Chinese communism. In the 1990s, Socialism with Chinese Characteristics began to take on a whole new and far darker and more sinister meaning. The CCP leadership became increasingly paranoid, and began seeing ghosts. Centralism was still in play, but democratic centralism was gone. The "right to make criticisms" was gone, and any criticism of the CCP leadership could lead to torture, rape and jailing. Religious persecution surged, as we described in detail in earlier chapters. The Buddhism-based Falun Gong movement was and is particularly targeted, after millions of people became practitioners of their form of meditation. The CCP has increasingly cracked down on Christianity and even Daoism, for fear their practice could lead to overthrow of the CCP. When any country is preparing for war, it's necessary to educate and motivate the public to prepare them for war. China has been conducting a vitriolic anti-Japan propaganda campaign since 1989, the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre. The student pro-democracy protests that led to the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 frightened CCP officials, who realized that being pro-democracy meant that the young people were becoming increasingly contemptuous of communist ideology. The CCP decided to replace indoctrination of communist ideology with indoctrination of Chinese nationalism. The CCP launched the Patriotic Education Campaign, a propaganda campaign designed to restore the legitimacy of the CCP government, according to University of Victoria (Canada) sociology professor Min Zhou: Quote:> "The propaganda has been carried out through both the This anti-Japan propaganda campaign is continuing, and is pursued vigorously today as part of China's preparation for war with Japan. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2) Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/ |