Quote: I don't believe, as some people in this administration
believe, that war with China is inevitable, and I think that's a
very dangerous assumption, very dangerous to believe that is the
future, because we can just make it happen by insisting on it. ...

There's [Peter] Navarro, [Steve] Bannon -- they believe that a
military war eventually is inevitable. By calling China a
strategic rival -- I mean they're a rival, there's no question,
they're a competitor -- but if they're strategic that means that
we believe they're an existential threat. And if you call someone
an enemy, they will become your enemy. So we need to be careful,
and I hope that at this point, we keep the war in the confines of
economics and the confines of trade.

But this could get out of hand so easily, and yes, there are
people who I believe just see that in the future it is inevitable
that we're headed toward conflict. I think that's a dangerous
assumption.

• China is not a strategic enemy.
  
  
• You must not call China an enemy because doing so is
  dangerous.
  
  
• Therefore, if there is a war, then it's your fault because you
  said that China is a strategic enemy.

richard5za Wrote:> Changing the subject to Impeachment

> The serious determination from the Democrats to impeach Trump
> would suggest that they think they have a good chance of getting
> it through both the House and the Senate.

> If it gets turned down in the Senate which seems to be the
> probability then that surely would be to the Democrats political
> disadvantage versus not having gone the impeachment route in the
> first place?

> Is someone able to explain the Democrats political strategy
> here?

• North Korea announces new 'crucial test' to bolster its 'nuclear deterrent'
  
• US envoy Stephen Biegun arrives in South Korea on Sunday
  
• China's confused response to the North Korean threat
  

• North Korea says it conducted test to bolster its “strategic nuclear deterrent” (NKNews, 14-Dec-2019)
  
• U.S. envoy to visit Seoul as deadline looms for stalled North Korea talks (Reuters, 13-Dec-2019)
  
• U.S. warns North Korea against 'ill-advised behavior' as deadline looms (Reuters, 12-Dec-2019)
  
• As its deadline for ‘bold decision’ from US looms, North Korea is ramping up the rhetoric again (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 8-Dec-2019)
  
• North Korea fires two ‘unidentified projectiles’ on Thanksgiving as end-of-year deadline looms (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 28-Nov-2019)
  
• U.S. and North Korea trade barbs, but both keeping options open as deadline looms (Japan Times, 10-Dec-2019)
  
• North Korea / The looming deadline in nuclear talks: Kim’s three options before the year’s end (NK News, 29-Nov-2019)
  
• US, North Korea on collision course as New Year deadline looms (Business Times Singapore, AFP, 10-Dec-2019)
  
• Action needed as North Korea deadline looms (Global Times, 10-Dec-2019)
  
• US envoy for DPRK to visit ROK, Japan amid tension (China Daily, 14-Dec-2019)
  
• North Korea has “nothing to lose,” top official warns Trump as tensions mount (NK News, 9-Dec-2019)
  
• South Korea to 'speak out' on NK test at UNSC (Korea Times, 11-Dec-2019)
  
• Firms withdraw from China on worsening business conditions (Korea Times, 9-Dec-2019)

• South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive' (29-Apr-2019)
  
  
• North Korea 'Charm Offensive' appears to have run its course (17-Nov-2018)
  
  
• North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted (12-Nov-2018)
  
  
• China, Russia demand that that some North Korea sanctions be lifted (29-Sep-2018)
  
  
• US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

Quote:> The Democrats have shown themselves to be angry, hysterical, and
> hormonal men and women, totally irrational and a completely out of
> control mob for the last three years. What will they do in the
> next four years? It's not pleasant to contemplate.

> However, let's remember that we're still headed for war with
> China. When a "regeneracy event" occurs, such as a major military
> setback or a major attack on American soil, then the entire
> country, both Democrats and Republicans, will put aside their
> political differences and unite behind the president, just as they
> did after the attack on Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death
> March.

Guest Wrote:> What if the 2020 election goes ahead and there is no war with
> China or Iran? Couldn't a civil war erupt? Your premise seems to
> rest on war uniting the country, but what if war doesn't happen
> until, let's say, 2023, then what?

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> Apparently, the US and USSR actually WEREN'T truly existential
> threats to one another!

> ..how wacky is that to discover after all this time,.. and
> expense!? <chuckle, chuckle, chuckle!>

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> As you've said, the REALLY REAL existential threat to China is
> CHINA! China is most worried about the internal threat of their
> own population who seem addicted to regular-ish rebellion.

> ..but they try to maintain their "stability" through demonizing
> "outside powers".

> I suppose that one could surmise that we should have known that
> Russia and the US weren't really existential threats to one
> another long long ago simple by the fact that we hadn't
> "exponentially heightened" our mutual antagonisms into war
> somewhere in the 1970's or 1980's,.. or more likely the
> 1960's.

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> So, how do we decide that there will be war between antagonists,
> if not by their mutual level of antagonism?

> ..we "know" there will be war because their generational
> condition(s) "matches" the "gotta have a WAR!" template for (one
> or both of) the belligerents.

> BUT,.. it is possible to speed up or slow down the commencement of
> a war by being "naughty or nice" to "the enemy", while the
> inevitability of said war is not effected at all.

• Two Israeli soldiers just happened to be patrolling near the
  border with Lebanon.
  
  
• Some members of the Hezbollah militia just happened to see them,
  and decided to cross the border and abduct them.
  
  
• Israel's government went into a state of total panic.
  
  
• Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called this "an act of war,"
  and within a few hours, Israel was mobilized for war.
  
  
• Israel launched the war with no plan and no objective. Each day,
  Israel lurched from one plan and objective to the next, as the
  previous one failed. In the end, the war was a disaster for both
  Israel and Lebanon, and accomplished nothing except the destruction of
  a lot of Lebanon's infrastructure. The war fizzled quickly because
  Lebanon and Hezbollah were in a generational Awakening era.

(12-15-2019, 12:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The Israel-Hezbollah war wasn't triggered by a chaotic event,
> though. Abduction of two Israeli soldiers could certainly trigger
> a war, but there isn't any credible circumstance where abduction
> of the two Israeli soldiers would prevent the war, when it would
> otherwise be triggered by lack of an abduction.

(12-15-2019, 03:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > So now you're saying the abduction was unconnected to the
> war?

• If there had been an abduction a month earlier or later, would
  the same panic and invasion have occurred?
  
  
• Could the panic have been triggered by something else -- perhaps a
  belligerent speech by Nasrallah?
  
  
• Did the panic and invasion have to occur at all?

(12-15-2019, 12:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > To take an historical example, the policy of Appeasement by
> Chamberlain before WWII most certainly delayed the Europe wide
> portion of WWII. Some argue that the delay was critical to
> rearmament efforts.

Tom Mazanec Wrote:> John, I refer you to a great technothriller writer I follow and
> his latest book Veracity.

> It is about the invention of a perfect lie detector that works
> over video or otherwise surreptitiously.

> China wants to get it and keep America from getting it.

> In the Afterword, the author tells how he had really had his eyes
> opened researching the book. He had thought that China was
> moderating and would not be a threat to America, but totally
> revised this opinion to hold that China is a peril to the United
> States and the world.

> https://www.amazon.com/Veracity-Douglas-Richards-ebook/dp/B07NKP8XH7

• 'Afghan Papers' reveal we sent 175,000 soldiers into Afghanistan without 'foggiest notion' what we were doing
  
• Why we can never prevail in Afghanistan
  

• The Afghanistan Papers A secret history of the war - At war with the truth (Washington Post, 9-Dec-2019)
  
• I helped write the official lies to sell the Afghanistan war (Washington Post, 13-Dec-2019)
  
• In Trump We Trust: Why Donald Will End the War in Afghanistan (National Interest, 15-Dec-2019)
  
• Where Is the Outrage Over the War in Afghanistan? (The Nation, 13-Dec-2019)
  
• Why the Media Is Ignoring the Afghanistan Papers (New Republic, 15-Dec-2019)
  
• 'Nobody wants to talk about it': Senate remains idle as Afghan war lurches on (Politico, 11-Dec-2019)
  
• Why the ‘Afghanistan Papers’ Matter (Foreign Policy, 10-Dec-2019)
  
• Top US officials repeatedly misled public about Afghanistan War – Report (CNN, 11-Dec-2019)
  
• Timeline - The U.S. War in Afghanistan (Council on Foreign Relations, 15-Dec-2019)

• Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war (10-May-2017)
  
  
• Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans (14-Jan-2007)
  
  
• Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)
  
• American army general warns of imminent defeat in Afghanistan war (26-Sep-2009)
  

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> Quibble: If you believe in "Kismet/et al", then you're
> religious.

Quote: A man bought a plot of land that was really a mess.
It was covered with weeds and all kinds of crap. There was even a
sickening smell.

But the guy got to work. He worked every day, six days a week,
from 6 am to 8 pm. He cleaned out all the crap. He cleaned out
all the weeds. He ploughed the land. He planted seeds. He
watered the seeds every day, making sure to clean up any new
weeds.

Within a few months, he had the most beautiful plot of land in the
region, with lovely flowers and plants.

One day, while the man was working on his land, someone walked by
and said: "That's a beautiful plot of land that God has given to
you."

The man thought for a second and said, "Yeah, God did give me a
beautiful plot of land. But you should have seen what kind of
shape it was in when God was taking care of it."

(12-15-2019, 06:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Did the 1929 panic have to occur at all?  I believe so.  Did the 2006
Israeli panic have to occur at all?  I think so, but I can't prove it.
Some things are just "in the air," and are going to happen one way or
another.

Quote:The invasion of Poland was not the start of WW II.  At that time, WW
II had already been going on for several years.  I count the beginning
of WW II as 1937, when a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in
the woods, and his commander assumed that he had been abducted by the
Chinese, triggering the China-Japan war and quickly leading to the
rape of Nanking.  That's a good example of a chaotic event triggering
a war.

(12-15-2019, 06:27 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I'm not aware of any good that China has ever done for someone else
except to exploit them.  Even Putin sometimes tries to help other
people.  But not China.  Not ever.

• Riots spread across India along Hindu-Muslim fault line
  
• India's Citizenship Bill riots evoke memories of the 1947 Partition War
  

• India citizenship law protests: All the latest updates (Al-Jazeera, 16-Dec-2019)
  
• India: Massive protests against citizenship law (Deutsche Welle, 16-Dec-2019)
  
• India citizenship law protests spread across campuses (Reuters, 16-Dec-2019)
  
• India Protests Spread as Anger Against Citizenship Law Grows (Bloomberg, 15-Dec-2019)
  
• India’s new Citizenship Act and national register of citizens are both inspired by (Quartz, 16-Dec-2019)
  
• India protests rage over 'anti-Muslim' law (AFP, 16-Dec-2019)
  
• Police storm campuses, crack down on protests against Indian citizenship law (France24, 16-Dec-2019)
  
• CAA protests in Lucknow: Students face off with police, stones pelted (India Today, 16-Dec-2019)
  
• Citizenship Amendment Act: India PM Modi appeals for calm as protests grow (BBC, 16-Dec-2019)
  
• Why has India's Assam erupted over an 'anti-Muslim' law? (BBC, 13-Dec-2019)
  
• Citizenship Amendment Bill: India's new 'anti-Muslim' law explained (BBC, 11-Dec-2019)
  
• Citizenship Amendment Bill: Are India's claims about minorities in other countries true? (BBC, 12-Dec-2019)

• Pakistan-India relations downgraded as Kashmir is locked down (10-Aug-2019)
  
  
• Kashmir locked down after Indian security forces kill seven civilians (18-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Number of Kashmir militants surges as India's 'Operation All-Out' fails (28-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  

(12-16-2019, 09:59 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Sure. The exact timing is random. That doesn't mean you can't do
> things that can speed it up or slow it down, like kidnap Israeli
> soldiers or sell off large blocks of stock. It's just that it's
> probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so you can't be sure
> that what you do will work; it probably won't, so it's hard to
> plan for.

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> A "war" is indeed a chaotic "event", in that "event" here means:
> "underway but not finished as of the present" way (aka: the
> continuous/progressive grammatical aspect kinda
> way),.. essentially making it a system and not a "point
> event",.. where "point event" is the "perfected form/aspect" ("it
> happened and it's state is forever static" as in "the cat died")
> of "event".

• If the mainland army intervenes in Hong Kong, it will be the
  end of "one country, two systems."
  
  
• If the CCP does not intervene, then the situation in Hong Kong
  will continue to deteriorate, which will prove that "one country, two
  systems" doesn't work.

• Escalated bombing by Syria, Russia in Idlib sends tens of thousands to Turkey border
  
• The complex ménage à trois relationship - Syria, Russia, Turkey - under stress
  
• Assad threatens Turkey
  

• Idlib / Turkey / Russia / UNSC / Diplomats battle over key Syria aid resolution (New Humanitarian, 17-Dec-2019)
  
• As Turkey and Russia pull the strings in Syria’s Idlib, civilians pay the price (New Humanitarian, 21-May-2019)
  
• Armed groups planning new attack against Syrian Army: Russia (Al-Masdar News, Damascus, 17-Dec-2019)
  
• Idlib / How long will Turkey remain in northeast Syria? (Al-Jazeera, 19-Oct-2019)
  
• President al-Assad meets army personnel on frontlines in Idleb and Hama countryside (Sana, Damascus, 22-Oct-2019)
  
• Calling Erdogan a 'thief', Syria's Assad tours Idlib frontline near rebels (Reuters, 22-Oct-2019)
  
• Idlib / Turkey thief / The Latest: Pence says 5-day cease-fire in Syria has held (AP, 23-Oct-2019)
  
• Syria Prepares for Massive Offensive as U.S. Votes for New Sanctions on Assad, Russia and Iran (Time, 17-Dec-2019)
  
• Syria war: Air strikes and shelling kill 14 civilians in Idlib (BBC, 17-Dec-2019)
  
• Syrian regime pushed Idlib offensive under cover of other crises (JPost, 12-Dec-2019)
  
• Apparent Russian airstrikes on rebel-held northwest Syria's Idlib kill three, including two kids (Japan Times, 17-Dec-2019)
  
• Child killed, 7 injured in Assad regime strikes in Idlib, Syria (Anadolu, Ankara, 17-Dec-2019)
  
• UN / Najat Rochd / Escalation of Violence in the Idlib Area (United Nations, 18-Dec-2019)
  
• Turkey / Syria / 12,000 people flee Idlib amid regime, Russian attacks (Anadolu, Ankara, 18-Dec-2019)
  
• Regime attacks in Idlib force 12,000 civilians to flee toward Turkish border (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 18-Dec-2019)
  
• History of Alawites / Alawites and the Fate of Syria (Ohio State University, 2014)

• Generational analysis of Turkey-Syria war and ceasefire agreement (18-Oct-2019)
  
  
• Turkey defends Syria invasion, despite almost universal condemnation (11-Oct-2019)
  
  
• Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone' (08-Oct-2019)
  
  
• Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib (28-Oct-2018)
  
  
• As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy (05-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Turkey threatens Syria, as military attacks Palestinian refugee camp (16-Aug-2011)