(09-16-2020, 04:51 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-16-2020, 11:59 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The resources/assets of Southeast Asia have long been of interest to outside powers.  

Awhile back I came across a web site that suggested that SE Asia will be contested by China and Japan.

I’m not so sure it is cost effective to use violence to acquire resources and territory anymore.  A point I often make.  Nukes.  Insurgent proxy wars.  China may not have figured it out yet.  Most of their neighbors are nervous.  They are a potent force, but they have antagonized a lot of people.

Wars of aggression are problematic these days, though.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I find dire predictions and sites like this amusing, because I
> believe structurally that there are great problems too, but like
> the economy, it seems everyone predicts calamites for years or
> decades and then spends even more years explaining why "It hasn't
> happened yet."

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> John, we spoke (wrote) past each other here, but please clarify,
> do you have knowledge of the Orthodox faith? I'm uncertain due to
> the way that you responded; just an honest question. I ask because
> you seem to think that people denying the truth of the world are
> the same with those who love life/goodness/truth/virtue, the
> eternal things, which are of course both God and are of God. Every
> religion and ideology is the same? That's an odd thing for a
> learned man to say, first because they are so objectively
> different even when one doesn't consider (the most important part)
> their metaphysical qualities.

> You seem to unfortunately conclude that all evil or deceived
> "ideologies" or "belief systems" are the same. Well, yes, of
> course they share many sad characteristics. That doesn't mean
> anything other than that in itself --- what's more, you presuppose
> that mental illness is bad (of course) and that the alternative is
> good, which gets at the heart of my real point.

Quote:> "I have read the article and to be honest, you've
> probably done more research and have a broader and more in depth
> understanding of Vietnam and its history than I. But intuitively
> I believe what is written is true. My family is from South
> Vietnam, close to Saigon, and my family follows Buddhist
> traditions, however, not devoutly, almost as if they've had to
> hide it which I never understood. But now makes sense as it
> wasn't from shame but could be from possible persecution. I also
> definitely agree with other aspects of separation between North
> and South Vietnamese cultures as I believe my parents do not see
> Vietnam as their homeland anymore, or if they do, they almost view
> it as still being occupied by foreign invaders if that makes
> sense, probably one of the reasons they've never gone
> back."

DaKardii Wrote:> John, how do you think Brexit will affect the WWIII alignments in
> Europe?

> I personally believe that Germany and the UK will be on opposing
> sides, and France could go either way.

> Since the end of the Franco-Prussian war in 1871, France and the
> UK have worked closely together to prevent a unified Germany from
> dominating the European continent. This common goal was the
> central reason why they were allies in both World Wars, despite
> being historic enemies. It was also the central reason why they
> both opposed German re-unification in 1990, despite the US
> supporting it. Since 1990, they have been trying to accommodate
> Germany while also serving as soft counterbalances against it.

> However, France hasn't always been so committed to
> counterbalancing Germany. Many French sympathize with Germany
> because they would prefer Europe to be dominated by a continental
> power (such as France and Germany), as opposed to a
> non-continental power (such as Russia, the UK, and the US). This
> sentiment may have been the central reason why many French
> willingly collaborated with Germany during WWII, and it was
> definitely the central reason why France was initially strongly
> opposed to the UK joining the EU in the first place.

> With Brexit completed, tensions are starting to rise between the
> EU and the UK over post-Brexit trade arrangements. These
> disagreements have the potential to escalate into territorial
> disputes between the UK and the EU members bordering it,
> especially Ireland. Should that happen, Germany could use these
> disputes as a pretext to promote both further European integration
> and the creation of a "European Army" that would effectively serve
> as a way around the post-WWII restrictions on German
> rearmament. Because both the UK and most of Western Europe are in
> a crisis era, odds are such escalations will indeed occur.

> At this point, France will face a serious dilemma. On one hand, it
> supports further European integration and the formation of a
> "European Army" just as much, if not more than Germany does. But
> on the other hand, such developments would significantly increase
> the stakes of a future unbalancing of the current continental
> co-hegemony existing between the two countries. France probably
> recalls that the last time Germany was forced to share hegemony
> with another continental power (Austria) in a confederate union
> (the German Confederation), the unbalancing of that co-hegemony
> led to war. Germany decisively won that war within six weeks, and
> Austria's loss of that war caused it to undergo a slow decline
> that led to the complete collapse of its empire within three
> generations. France obviously does not want to meet the same fate
> as Austria. So, what does it do in this situation?

JJ333 Wrote:> We stepped onto an old path that still leads to the same place.

> 1920s/2000s – neoclassical economics, high inequality, high banker
> pay, low regulation, low taxes for the wealthy, robber barons
> (CEOs), reckless bankers, globalisation phase

> 1929/2008 – Wall Street crash

> 1930s/2010s – Global recession, currency wars, trade wars,
> austerity, rising nationalism and extremism

> 1940s – World war.

> We forgot we had been down that path before.

> It does get worse, look where we are going.

Guest Wrote:> I don't mean to divert attention from the present convo, but...
> https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/covid-19-the-great-reset/

> Why is no one even trying to talk about this? What you see when
> you click that link and drop into the rabbit hole that is the plan
> to "reset" the world economy is pure globalist (and for those of
> faith, Satanist) evil.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> John, I chuckled when I saw your response with the heading
> "Orthodox amusement". The point of my question was to understand
> where you are coming from, how you think, and what you know. Your
> answers were revealing. By the way, I'm just amused by how we
> think we are so important and can predict what is happening (and
> some can, some do --- but you'll notice they never really get it
> right twice = mostly lucky) and then go on and on about how or why
> it didn't happen. Having said that, I am actually in your camp
> (can't you tell?) in many ways, including the fact that the world
> is changing dramatically and mostly for the worst, especially if
> you grew up believing that the US Constitution actually mattered
> or that the government in its foundation wasn't really corrupt
> (most didn't realize this until all of the soft coups coming after
> President Trump and the manner in which they are
> attempted).

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> I addressed this above. Predicting is hard. I love guys that try
> to do it though, most pussies in the modern day won't even try, so
> those that do actually earn a great deal of respect from me. My
> point remains that things coming are hard to see set off and
> usually we keep predicting into the wind though years go by with
> zero happening. I'm willing to be general or have a framework
> ... do you all here also believe that the war is by 2025? or more
> like by 2030?

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Of course you are right, but the first part is a materialist
> (atheist) argument. It is true, but only a small part of the
> story, not all that there is by any means. As for the second part,
> you are again logical and correct, Socrates employed the same
> logic in understanding that there can be only one true
> God.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> "What is truth? ... And what is virtue?"

> These questions show us why the USA has been declining, they are
> painstakingly too common. They are evidence that people have lost
> the foundation on which we build civilizations and find meaning in
> life. In the case of all of us of advanced civilizations and
> heritage, Christianity.

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> "There's one more thing that all religions have in common: A
> believer can always find a way within the religion to justify any
> action."

> I think more accurately stated, [some] people use religious
> impulses to do and justify anything. Some religions (Islam) do
> have histories of violence and justification of it (they teach it
> as a matter of fact, dogma) and others do not (I can name several
> here).

Guest Wrote:> China is sending rockets over Taiwan and violating Taiwan's
> airspace. Also Chinese hacking activity is becoming more
> brazen. The Chinese don't seem to care if they are caught
> anymore. Also the Chinese are becoming more and aggressive in the
> South China Sea. Look at what they have done to Hong Kong. The
> mainland Chinese have always been boorish, but things are
> different now. It seems the mainlanders don't even pretend to be
> peaceful anymore. The mainlanders have also said that if American
> officials visit Taiwan on a trade mission, the Beijing gangsters
> will retaliate. This Friday...

guest Wrote:> Quote from Japan Times:

> In what observers said was a response to Krach’s three-day visit
> and increasing high-level U.S.-Taiwan meetings, China sent a total
> of 19 fighter jets, bombers and surveillance aircraft across the
> so-called median line dividing the Taiwan Strait for the second
> consecutive day Saturday. The warplanes entered Taiwan’s air
> defense identification zone, prompting Taipei to scramble fighters
> in response.

> Chinese state-run media lashed out at the visit by Krach, with the
> hawkish Global Times on Friday calling the military exercises
> “rehearsals on taking over Taiwan.”

> Late Saturday, Global Times editor Hu Xin wrote in a signed
> editorial that Beijing could respond to Washington’s moves with
> force.

> “If the U.S. and the island continue their collusion to secede the
> island from China, we believe that the (Chinese People’s
> Liberation Army) is resolute enough to launch cruise missiles over
> through the island, send fighter jets above the island to declare
> sovereignty, and carry out military drills there,” he wrote. “As a
> result, a new military construct will be formed in the Taiwan
> Straits.”

> https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/20/national/politics-diplomacy/china-japan-taiwan-tsai-ing-wen-yoshihide-suga/?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=72&pnespid=aIZkklq2dzIAKlSOD4t6FNqzwGJPiO3YwQj7

(09-16-2020, 05:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: H-m-m-m.  China is all elbows.  I doubt they plan to march the Red Army anywhere, when they can just get their way by being overbearing. Making the shipping lanes less user friendly to some and more friendly to others is more in line with their methods.  And any country that does a deal with them should expect to be squeezed on a regular basis.

(09-21-2020, 03:01 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > On most threads I would agree with you, but we are on the
> Generational Dynamics thread. Here on Earth Three we are back in
> the 1930s, xenophobia runs rampant, dominating economics and
> idealism as the cause of war. Sergeants run war policy rather
> than presidents, party leaders or dictators. If a soldier sneezes
> it is cause to predict a war is about to break loose. Takes a
> little getting used to.

(09-21-2020, 06:57 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: This is supposed to be a generational theory forum but, once again, it's clear that I'm the only member of this forum who considers generational theory to be valid.

Taiwan Forever" Wrote:> I live in Seoul, South Korea, but what is left of my family lives
> in Taipei, Taiwan. I want to thank you, John for the information
> and hard work that has gone into all of this. I don't talk with my
> family about this anymore. It's pointless. I don't think I will be
> alive much longer, and that really doesn't bother me. I am at
> peace with it. Thank you for preparing me for the end. I don't
> have much else to say.

> Thank you, John.

(09-21-2020, 09:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

Taiwan Forever Wrote:I live in Seoul, South Korea, but what is left of my family lives in Taipei, Taiwan. I want to thank you, John for the information and hard work that has gone into all of this. I don't talk with my family about this anymore. It's pointless. I don't think I will be alive much longer, and that really doesn't bother me. I am at peace with it. Thank you for preparing me for the end. I don't have much else to say.

Thank you, John.

Well, I live in Boston, but apart from that I agree with everything you're saying.  Pretty much everything is pointless these days, and the best thing to do is prepare for the end and be at peace.  And no, there really isn't much left to say after that, is there.

Thank you for your message.

(09-16-2020, 04:51 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-16-2020, 11:59 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The resources/assets of Southeast Asia have long been of interest to outside powers.  

Awhile back I came across a web site that suggested that SE Asia will be contested by China and Japan.

I’m not so sure it is cost effective to use violence to acquire resources and territory anymore.  A point I often make.  Nukes.  Insurgent proxy wars.  China may not have figured it out yet.  Most of their neighbors are nervous.  They are a potent force, but they have antagonized a lot of people.

Wars of aggression are problematic these days, though.

(09-22-2020, 12:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: World War II ripped apart the assumptions of colonial rule. Small cadres of colonial administrators and business operators and executives could not overpower the much larger populations of British India, French Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies as such people did after those lands were taken out of Japanese domination at the end of WWII.

(09-22-2020, 01:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-22-2020, 12:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: World War II ripped apart the assumptions of colonial rule. Small cadres of colonial administrators and business operators and executives could not overpower the much larger populations of British India, French Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies as such people did after those lands were taken out of Japanese domination at the end of WWII.

It was not just that.  The United States after World War II forgave Lend Lease loans to powers who renounced closed ports.  This was obviously to the US's advantage as they had the shipping and manufacturing and many did not.  No closed ports, no captive markets, no cheap sources of raw materials, no point in having colonies.  You would end up responsible for a undeveloped area without gaining the economic advantage out of it.  Thus, the former mother countries did not attempt to maintain their former domination.

(09-22-2020, 04:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(09-22-2020, 01:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(09-22-2020, 12:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: World War II ripped apart the assumptions of colonial rule. Small cadres of colonial administrators and business operators and executives could not overpower the much larger populations of British India, French Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies as such people did after those lands were taken out of Japanese domination at the end of WWII.

It was not just that.  The United States after World War II forgave Lend Lease loans to powers who renounced closed ports.  This was obviously to the US's advantage as they had the shipping and manufacturing and many did not.  No closed ports, no captive markets, no cheap sources of raw materials, no point in having colonies.  You would end up responsible for a undeveloped area without gaining the economic advantage out of it.  Thus, the former mother countries did not attempt to maintain their former domination.

Countries that had colonies also often had to choose between fighting to keep colonies that had cast off the Japanese and rebuilding their domestic infrastructure. The Dutch were not going to fight to keep Indonesia. The United States had already planned to grant independence to the Philippines, and the Japanese imposed an ugly parody of independence in a puppet state. Gandhi and Jinnah had behaved themselves well enough during World War II. The US was more concerned about thwarting Communism than in keeping colonial empires intact.

• China crosses and repudiates 'median line' separating China from Taiwan
  
• China's incursion strategy
  
• China's dual-track policy towards Taiwan
  

• to conduct training missions to prepare pilots for
  encountering foreign air forces during long-range flights;
  
• to probe and gather intel on Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese
  forces;
  
• to demonstrate air power capable of protecting its territorial and
  security interests;
  
• and to apply coercive pressure to decouple coalitions resistant to
  Chinese influence in the region.

• Escalating military deterrence toward Taiwan, such as the last
  week's intrusions into Taiwan's ADIZ by dozens of Chinese
  warplanes.
  
  
• Adopting no-contact policy by cutting off all levels of political
  communications DPP politicians in Taiwan with any mainland
  institutions or officials. The CPP tolerated this contacts when the
  KMT was in power.
  
  
• Using a variety of coercive techniques -- bribery and extortion --
  to get other countries to end diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
  
  
• Preventing Taiwan from participating in various international
  organizations, such as the World Health Organization.
  
  
• Blacklsting actors, singers and other entertainment industry
  figures who have expressed pro-independence views.

• Beijing's pressure in security, political and diplomatic areas
  has aroused backlash from the DPP, and even stimulated pro-independence
  figures to advocate more radical pro-independence initiatives.
  
  
• "Instead, the mainland's confrontational approaches in security,
  political and diplomatic frontiers would undermine the credibility and
  sincerity of Beijing's conciliatory gestures in economic, social and
  cultural areas. The strained cross-Strait relations will inevitably
  exacerbate the hostility and drive common Taiwanese to turn their back
  on the mainland China, which will consequently make it harder, instead
  of easier, to charm the public into favoring Beijing's ultimate goal
  of unifying the two sides peacefully."
  
  
• Beijing's hardline stance undermines its efforts to achieve
  reunification by "winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwan people."
  The enduring standoff has already strengthened and deepened civilian
  distrust and antagonism between the two societies.

• China vows countermeasures in response to U.S. high-ranking officials' Taiwan visits (Ecns, Beijing, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• China warns US on recent Taiwan moves (China Daily, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• PLA fighter jets cross ‘middle line’ of Taiwan Straits an hour before US official’s meeting with Tsai Ing-wen (Global Times, China, 10-Aug-2020)
  
• China threatens to 'wipe out' Taiwan president with war (Taiwan News, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• China denies existence of median line in Taiwan Strait (Taiwan News, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• Taiwan slams China's denial of median line as breaking status quo (Focus Taiwan, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• The Median Line in the Taiwan Strait: A Dangerous Loophole (Sentinel, Taiwan, 3-Apr-2019)
  
• Taipei Slams ‘Provocative’ Chinese Air Force Fighters Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line (Diplomat, 1-Apr-2019)
  
• Over The Line - The Implications Of China’S ADIZ Intrusions In Northeast Asia (Federation of American Scientists, FAS, PDF, 2020)
  
• Selective Engagement: Mainland China’s Dual-Track Taiwan Policy (Fudan University, Shanghai, 15-Oct-2019)
  
• Almost 40 Chinese warplanes breach Taiwan Strait median line; Taiwan President calls it a 'threat of force' (CNN, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• PLA warplanes featured in drills in Taiwan Straits ‘capable of seizing air superiority and command of sea’ (Global Times, Beijing, 20-Sep-2020)
  
• High-level U.S. visits to Taiwan annoy China – but did not cross the red line, says analyst (CNBC, 22-Sep-2020)
  
• China / Taiwan median line / Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin's Regular Press Conference on September 21, 2020 (China Foreign Ministry, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• Tsai pledges to defend ROC’s airspace (Taipei Times, 23-Sep-2020)
  
• PLA aircraft cross into Taiwan’s ADIZ (Taipei Times, 17-Sep-2020)
  
• US pushing surge in arms sales to ‘Fortress Taiwan’ (Taipei Times, 17-Sep-2020)
  
• Taiwan / China a threat to whole region: Tsai (Taipei Times, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• Taiwan Looks To Slam Chinese Navy Vessels With SLAM-ER Missiles Deployed On F-16 Jets (EurAsian Times, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• Taiwan has enough missiles to defend itself at present: MND (Focus Taiwan, 21-Sep-2020)
  
• China Ends ‘Median Line’ in the Taiwan Strait: The Start of a Crisis? (National Interest, 22-Sep-2020)

• Minister suggests Japan will defend Taiwan against military invasion by China (24-May-2020)
  
  
• US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite China's fury (10-Jul-2019)
  
  
• Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China (21-Oct-2018)
  
  
• China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan (17-May-2018)
  
  
• US will sell submarine technology to Taiwan, as Japan launches first marine brigade since end of WW II (08-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)