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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-26-2020

*** 27-Sep-20 World View -- Lebanon's new prime minister resigns in failure, throwing country into further chaos

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Lebanon's new prime minister resigns in failure, throwing country into further chaos
President Trump harshly attacks China and World Health Org at UN

****
**** Lebanon's new prime minister resigns in failure, throwing country into further chaos
****

[Image: g200926b.jpg]

Aftermath of August 4 explosion in Beirut Lebanon (Reuters)

Mustapha Adib, the man recently designated to become Lebanon's next
prime minister, resigned in failure on Saturday, unable to form a
government because of opposition from the puppets of Iran, the
Hezbollah terror group and the Shia Amal political party.

The country is still reeling from the catastrophic explosion in the
Beirut, Lebanon, seaport on Tuesday, August 4, which leveled thousands
of homes, killed and injured thousands of people, and left 300,000
people homeless. Investigation has revealed the Hezbollah is
implicated in the explosion, and may be to blame for it. ( "22-Aug-20 World View -- Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon "
)

Lebanon's economy has been a continually worsening disaster for many
years, and that's blamed on Lebanon's "dynastic confessional" system
of government, where power is divided based on sectarian affiliation
or confession, requiring that a Sunni Muslim must occupy the position
of prime minister, while the presidency is given to a Maronite
Christian and speaker of parliament to a Shia Muslim. As I've
explained in detail several times in the past, this confessional
system has promoted massive corruption, as there are no checks and
balances, and greedy politicians have taken advantage of it to destroy
Lebanon's economy. ( "9-Aug-20 World View -- Beirut Lebanon police clash with furious protesters following Tuesday's catastrophic explosion"
)

Hezbollah and the Shia bloc have benefited the most from the
corruption and criminality engendered by the confessional system, and
it was hoped that because the August 4 explosion practically leveled
the city of Beirut, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah might
change his stripes, and allow some government reforms. France's
president Emmanuel Macron has promised international aid to Lebanon,
but only if fundamental government reforms take place.

But apparently Nasrallah is doubling down on his greed and his demands
that he and the Shia bloc retain all their power. He particularly
wants full control of the Finance Ministry, which would give the Shia
full control over spending any international aid that international
organizations granted to Lebanon. There's no way that Macron would
approve this. This is the reason that Mustapha Adib resigned.

According to a couple of Lebanese analysts on TV, Nasrallah's
puppetmaster, Iran's president Hassan Rouhani, is demanding that
Nasrallah remain intransigent at least until America's November 3
election.

Presumably the reason for this is that Rouhani is hoping that Donald
Trump will lose the election to Joe Biden, and Biden will restore the
nuclear deal and end sanctions on Iran, and that the Europeans will
follow with money for both Iran and Hezbollah, and Nasrallah can
remain fat and happy, until the next disaster.

So Lebanon's chaos is going to continue for at least a couple more
months, and possibly a lot longer, because the expected election chaos
in the US caused by fraud and irregularities with 80 million mail-in
ballots poured onto the election could result in long delays in
determining who the election winner will be.

****
**** President Trump harshly attacks China and World Health Org at UN
****

On Tuesday, president Donald Trump gave a speech to the United Nations
General Assembly. It was described by the mainstream media as
a "machine gun speech," because he covered one point after another
very quickly, without adding the usual political bloviation. The
speech lasted only 7 minutes, reportedly the shortest leader speech
in the history of the United Nations.

What was interesting about the speech was the harsh criticism of
China and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Trump used to say that Xi Jinping was his friend. However, he made a
U-turn in March, when China's Foreign Ministry began saying that the
American Army infected Wuhan with the virus. This accusation
infuriated Trump, and since then he's taken every opportunity to
condemn China for the "China virus."

In the UN speech, Trump said that the UN must hold China accountable
for purposly unleashing this plague onto the world. He also harshly
criticized the WHO for supporting several lies by China that allowed
the virus to spread around the world, while China protected itself.

Trump also said that "China dumps millions and millions of tons of
plastic and trash into the oceans, overfishes other countries’ waters,
destroys vast swaths of coral reef, and emits more toxic mercury into
the atmosphere than any country anywhere in the world." Trump also
heavily criticized China's human abuse record.

Here are some excerpts from Trump's speech:

<QUOTE>"It is my profound honor to address the United Nations
General Assembly.

Seventy-five years after the end of World War II and the founding
of the United Nations, we are once again engaged in a great global
struggle. We have waged a fierce battle against the invisible
enemy — the China virus — which has claimed countless lives in 188
countries.

In the United States, we launched the most aggressive mobilization
since the Second World War. We rapidly produced a record supply of
ventilators, creating a surplus that allowed us to share them with
friends and partners all around the globe. We pioneered
life-saving treatments, reducing our fatality rate 85 percent
since April.

Thanks to our efforts, three vaccines are in the final stage of
clinical trials. We are mass-producing them in advance so they can
be delivered immediately upon arrival.

We will distribute a vaccine, we will defeat the virus, we will
end the pandemic, and we will enter a new era of unprecedented
prosperity, cooperation, and peace.

As we pursue this bright future, we must hold accountable the
nation which unleashed this plague onto the world: China.

In the earliest days of the virus, China locked down travel
domestically while allowing flights to leave China and infect the
world. China condemned my travel ban on their country, even as
they cancelled domestic flights and locked citizens in their
homes.

The Chinese government and the World Health Organization — which
is virtually controlled by China — falsely declared that there was
no evidence of human-to-human transmission. Later, they falsely
said people without symptoms would not spread the disease.

The United Nations must hold China accountable for their actions.

In addition, every year, China dumps millions and millions of tons
of plastic and trash into the oceans, overfishes other countries’
waters, destroys vast swaths of coral reef, and emits more toxic
mercury into the atmosphere than any country anywhere in the
world. China’s carbon emissions are nearly twice what the
U.S. has, and it’s rising fast. By contrast, after I withdrew from
the one-sided Paris Climate Accord, last year America reduced its
carbon emissions by more than any country in the agreement.

Those who attack America’s exceptional environmental record while
ignoring China’s rampant pollution are not interested in the
environment. They only want to punish America, and I will not
stand for it. ...

Thank you. God bless you all. God bless America. And God bless the
United Nations."<END QUOTE>

This is just one more illustration of how the atmosphere between
the US and China continues to grow worse. This is a typical
pattern that history tells us leads to war.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Between-Prepared-Generational/dp/1732738637/

Sources:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Beirut, Mustapha Adib,
ammonium nitrate, fertilizer,
Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
France, Emmanuel Macron,
United Nations, China, World Health Organization, WHO

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 09-27-2020

I always thought that Hezbollah was a nasty bunch of people... I just can't imagine any organization other than national armed forces storing huge amounts of bomb-making materials (those are usually also ordnance) and then under rigid discipline about custody. Sure, I know, I know... Israel is the Little Satan in contrast to the Great Satan, the United States of America.

(an aside: should Donald Trump be re-elected or find some devious way to extend his term, the USA might be the literal Great Satan. But I also see Trump going down to defeat anyway). Three Great Powers under dictatorial rule (Russia, China, and the US) would be material for a Crisis worse than the last one.

...Does Lebanon have the means of outlawing an organization that has done something so egregious as to store high explosives in a populated area?

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 09-27-2020

(09-27-2020, 12:31 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I always thought that Hezbollah was a nasty bunch of people... I just can't imagine any organization other than national armed forces storing huge amounts of bomb-making materials (those are usually also ordnance) and then under rigid discipline about custody. Sure, I know, I know... Israel is the Little Satan in contrast to the Great Satan, the United States of America.

(an aside: should Donald Trump be re-elected or find some devious way to extend his term, the USA might be the literal Great Satan. But I also see Trump going down to defeat anyway). Three Great Powers under dictatorial rule (Russia, China, and the US) would be material for a Crisis worse than the last one.

...Does Lebanon have the means of outlawing an organization that has done something so egregious as to store high explosives in a populated area?

The problem is the partition under colonial rule into a 'nation' containing several old tribal groups. In attempting to keep the borders unchanged, you have to give each group a piece of the pie, with no loyalty to the nation as a whole. I keep wondering if reverting to France taking over again could be a temporary solution, but to let go you have to let the locals take over again. If the borders have nothing to do with the tribes in a tribal thinking area, the situation would remain problematic.

Xenophobia wise, you have all sorts of tribes not trusting and disliking everybody else. War is a racket wise, the elites and leaders are each trying to grab their own without concern for the people. Idealistic wise? The West and Israel have mucked up any chance of an ideal taking a place other than in accentuating xenophobia.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 09-27-2020

(09-27-2020, 03:08 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(09-27-2020, 12:31 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I always thought that Hezbollah was a nasty bunch of people... I just can't imagine any organization other than national armed forces storing huge amounts of bomb-making materials (those are usually also ordnance) and then under rigid discipline about custody. Sure, I know, I know... Israel is the Little Satan in contrast to the Great Satan, the United States of America.

(an aside: should Donald Trump be re-elected or find some devious way to extend his term, the USA might be the literal Great Satan. But I also see Trump going down to defeat anyway). Three Great Powers under dictatorial rule (Russia, China, and the US) would be material for a Crisis worse than the last one.

...Does Lebanon have the means of outlawing an organization that has done something so egregious as to store high explosives in a populated area?

The problem is the partition under colonial rule into a 'nation' containing several old tribal groups. In attempting to keep the borders unchanged, you have to give each group a piece of the pie, with no loyalty to the nation as a whole. I keep wondering if reverting to France taking over again could be a temporary solution, but to let go you have to let the locals take over again. If the borders have nothing to do with the tribes in a tribal thinking area, the situation would remain problematic.

The colonial world proved indefensible in World War II, but there is nothing new about that. Colonial empires have always proved vulnerable to the next empire-builder that sees easy pickings in places in which inchoate 'liberation movements' might be fifth-columns. People treated badly by people from far away are easy to conquer, and such people are glad to turn over the small cadre of overlords who have exploited and abused them. China has a heritage of expanding and contracting. The British Raj largely gutted the Mughal Empire, and the Caliphate made its greatest advances in what were the colonial extensions of the Sassanid and Byzantine Empires. To be sure, colonial enterprises often devolve into taking over small countries with weak or compromised leadership, turning once-independent states into client states or satellites and then fully incorporating them... if possible. But that also creates expanses easy to conquer by the next empire-builder.

Colonial empires of course established their spheres of influence, and except for the subdivision of "French West Africa" and "French Equatorial Empire" the current political map of Africa looks much like that of colonial Africa. Decisions made by foreign ministers of France, Great Britain, Portugal, Belgium, Spain, Germany, and Italy over a century appear in most borders. Local rulers now control constructions of non-Africans who did not see people so much as they saw resources.

Quote:Xenophobia wise, you have all sorts of tribes not trusting and disliking everybody else. War is a racket wise, the elites and leaders are each trying to grab their own without concern for the people. Idealistic wise? The West and Israel have mucked up any chance of an ideal taking a place other than in accentuating xenophobia.

The West has had a powerful innovation in liberal democracy, which is far better at smoothing ethnic divisions and mitigating class strife than about anything else. Liberal democracies at their best let people do as much possible for themselves and demand less than do despotic and dictatorial societies. Taxation had better connect closely to some public service and not simply be a means of enriching the Leadership. High taxes as in Scandinavian countries come back as economic opportunity as well as economic safety.

We now have questions about how liberal the structural democracies are in the USA and Israel. I look at the Bill of Rights in the Constitution as a political equivalent of the Decalogue, a series mostly of 'Thou shalt not's... as in 'Thou shalt not interfere with religion, speech, and the press"...

Donald Trump is by far the most despotic leader that America has had at the national level, which is to distinguish him from the ludicrous Imperial Wizards and Fuehrers that we have known. Part of establishing tyranny is the effort to divide people who might have everything to lose so that such people can be destroyed piecemeal. Trump tries that, but he fails.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 09-27-2020

(09-27-2020, 10:28 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: The West has had a powerful innovation in liberal democracy, which is far better at smoothing ethnic divisions and mitigating class strife than about anything else. Liberal democracies at their best let people do as much possible for themselves and demand less than do despotic and dictatorial societies. Taxation had better connect closely to some public service and not simply be a means of enriching the Leadership. High taxes as in Scandinavian countries come back as economic opportunity as well as economic safety.

We now have questions about how liberal the structural democracies are in the USA and Israel. I look at the Bill of Rights in the Constitution as a political equivalent of the Decalogue, a series mostly of 'Thou shalt not's... as in 'Thou shalt not interfere with religion, speech, and the press"...

Donald Trump is by far the most despotic leader that America has had at the national level, which is to distinguish him from the ludicrous Imperial Wizards and Fuehrers that we have known. Part of establishing tyranny is the effort to divide people who might have everything to lose so that such people can be destroyed piecemeal. Trump tries that, but he fails.

The West at its best has government of the people, for the people, by the people. At worst, you get Republicans, governments of, for and by the elites. War is a racket. They are more interested in exploiting the resources and captive markets than helping the local people. The worst is colonial imperialism. Might makes right. They will redraw the borders and deal with puppet government that help the west exploit the raw materials.

Right now the locals have endured a good deal of the worst aspects of the West and find Agricultural Age tribal religious government to be the favorable alternative. In many ways it is easy to think religious powers like Iran and the Taliban are right. The West are anathema. A return to the true values and virtues of the region are for the best. Unfortunately, that leads to tribal thinking and old obsolete ethics with might makes right mentality.

The Lebanon explosion does not begin to change their minds. The local powers will be convinced the government is a tool for manipulating power and advancing their tribe. Those who believe in the best of the West have already immigrated.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-27-2020

*** 28-Sep-20 World View -- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia

****
**** Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
****

[Image: g200927b.jpg]

Baku, Ajerbaijan, in July 2020 -- demonstrators storm the national parliament, demanding war against Armemia (Getty)

Heavy fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan, starting
early Sunday. There were brief clashes in July of this year, and a
larger clash in 2016, but this is the worst clash since the bloody
Nagorno-Karabakh war ended in 1994. There are fears that this could
spiral into a larger regional war, especially if Turkey or Russia gets
involved. Turkey issued a statement that it would support Azerbaijan
in a conflict, and this led Armenia to issue a warning of "full-scale
war."

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan, but which has a mostly
Armenian population which governs it. Nagorno-Karabakh ("highland
Karabakh") is also called Karabakh by Azerbaijan, and the Republic of
Artsakh by Armenia.

Even when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were member states of
the Soviet Union, there was tension over Nagorno-Karabakh. However,
when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, an extremely bloody
war broke out. Armenia invaded Azerbaijan and defeated the
Azeri defenders of Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in hundreds of thousands
of people displaced or killed.

The war ended in 1994 because of Russia's mediation, but since then
it's proceeded in a fairly typical way, with periods of peace
alternating with periods of low-level violence that grow worse with
each iteration. In typical situations, this process continues until
at least 58 years after the end of the war, when the survivors of the
war are no longer in power, and a new war breaks out. In this case, a
new war would not be anticipated until at least 2052.

Sunday's clashes resulted in dozens of deaths, including civilians.
As is usual in these situations, each side is blaming the other
for firing the first shot. However, several analysts are pointing
out that Azerbaijan has been signaling this kind of attack since
July, while Armenia really has nothing to gain by launching
this clash.

****
**** Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia
****

The countries are in a generational Awakening era, and so there are
too many traumatized survivors of the last war still alive, and they
will do everything possible to keep the low-level clashes from
escalating into another full-scale war, despite demands for war from
younger people to recover Karabakh, as shown in the photo at the
beginning of this article.

However, that could change if other countries get involved. Russia,
Iran, France and the EU have offered to mediate. Russia has good
relations with both former Soviet countries, although it has closer
relations with its Orthodox Christian sister Armenia and has a
military base in Armenia. But Russia is expected to stay neutral
unless Turkey gets involved.

Turkey issued several statements on Sunday that Turkey was ready to
side with its Turkic brother, Azerbaijan, if war breaks out.

Turkey's Ministry of Defense said:

<QUOTE>"In the struggle to protect the territorial integrity,
we will remain in the ranks with our brothers, the Azerbaijani
Turks, to the end."<END QUOTE>

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote on his Twitter page:

<QUOTE>"By carrying out another attack on Azerbaijan, Armenia
reaffirmed that it is a great obstacle on the way to peace and
stability. I call on the Armenian people to use their future
against the government, which is pulling them into the abyss of
disaster, and those who use them as puppets. At the same time, I
call on the whole world to support Azerbaijan, which is fighting
against despotism and injustice."<END QUOTE>

Armenia says that it will defend its "sacred homeland," the Republic
of Artsakh, because "we must defend our homeland and our families."
Armenia declared martial law and mobilized its male populations to
prepare for war.

A full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would destablize the
entire southern Caucasus region, and perhaps the Mideast as well.

The Generational Dynamics analysis is that this clash will fizzle
within a few days or weeks or maybe a few months, and will not
escalate into full-scale war. That could change if it turns into a
proxy war between Turkey and Russia, two countries that are already at
war in Syria and Libya, and have been historical enemies in the
Caucasus for centuries.

---- Sources:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey, Russia, Iran, France, Artsakh

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 09-29-2020

(09-27-2020, 09:43 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

Possible intervention by Turkey and Russia

Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh

It seems another case of colonial borders having nothing to do with tribes. You have tribal thinking resulting in no thought xenophobia, and major powers with no 'war is a racket' obvious way of profiting. Much noise is apt to result and nothing much else?

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-01-2020

** 01-Oct-2020 World View: Armenia and Azerbaijan continue fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh

[Image: _114680228_nk_english_28-09-2020-nc.png]

[Image: _114680228_nk_english_28-09-2020-nc.png]

Map of Armenia and Azerbaijan with current status of Nagorno-Karabakh battles (BBC)

Both Azerbaijan and Armenia are rejecting calls for a ceasefire, and
the fighting is continuing with artillery shelling on both sides,
killing dozens and wounding hundreds. The war is focused on
Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave within Azerbaijan's boundaries, but
populated by ethnic Armenians who govern the enclave, as I described
in my recent article.

** 28-Sep-20 World View -- Armenia warns of 'full-scale war' with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200928.htm#e200928

Turkey has clearly stated that it is an ally of its Turkic brother
Azerbaijan, and will participate in the fighting against Armenia if
called on. Armenia and Turkey have had extremely hostile relations
since 1915, when 1.5 million Armenians were killed in Turkey.

Russia is an ally of Armenia and has a military base in Armenia, but
is remaining neutral for the time being and calling for a ceasefire.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Turkey has
transported about 900 Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan to take part in
the fighting. The organization adds that Armenian-born fighters in
Syria have also been transported to Armenia to join the fight. There
have also been unconfirmed reports that Armenia has transferred
Kurdish mercenaries from Syria.

Turkey is a member of Nato, and other Nato countries are criticizing
Turkey for threatening to get involved in the Azerbaijan-Armenia war.
France has a large ethnic Armenian population, and France's president
Emmanuel Macron said:

Quote: "I have noted Turkey’s political statements, which I
think are reckless and dangerous.

France remains extremely concerned about the warlike comments that
Turkey made ... which essentially remove any inhibitions from
Azerbaijan in what would be a reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh. That
we will not accept."

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev demanded that Armenia withdraw all
its troops. If "the Armenian government fulfils the demand, fighting
and bloodshed will end, and peace will be established in the region."

Wow! Peace! Who can resist?

***
*** Military arsenals of Armenia and Azerbaijan
***

[Image: Infographic-Military-arsenals-of-Armenia...baijan.png]

[Image: Infographic-Military-arsenals-of-Armenia...baijan.png]

Military arsenals of Armenia and Azerbaijan (Al-Jazeera)

---- Sources:

-- Armenia-Azerbaijan: Both sides defy Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire
calls
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54366616
(BBC, 1-Oct-2020)

-- Putin, Macron call for Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire as deaths mount
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/1/putin-macron-call-for-nagorno-karabakh-ceasefire-as-deaths-mount
(Al-Jazeera, 1-Oct-2020)

-- Infographic: Military arsenals of Armenia and Azerbaijan
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/1/infographic-military-arsenals-of-armenia-and-azerbaijan
(Al-Jazeera, 1-Oct-2020)

-- France and Turkey at odds as Karabakh fighting divides NATO allies
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-azerbaijan/france-and-turkey-at-odds-as-karabakh-fighting-divides-nato-allies-idUSKBN26L106
(Reuters, 1-Oct-2020)

-- Two French reporters 'injured' amid Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/01/two-french-reporters-injured-amid-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict
(Guardian, London, 1-Oct-2020)

-- Macron slams Erdogan’s ‘reckless, dangerous’ statements on
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1742286/world
(Arab News, 1-Oct-2020)

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-02-2020

One thing is certain: Armenia will definitely not win any naval war.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-02-2020

** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Effect on markets

richard5za Wrote:> always like to think through possible outcomes before they happen
> even if the probability is very low. The issue is Trump testing
> positive for Covid It could change the election dramatically? What
> does American election law say? Would the election be delayed?
> What if Trump dies? Say death is before the election will it be
> Pence versus Biden? After the election if Trump wins then
> presumably Pence is President? Of course my primary interest is
> the effects upon the markets? The uncertainty could hasten the
> impending crash, and no doubt this would become political
> too.

The chances of Trump surviving are very high, much higher than
they were even three months ago, thanks to all the therapeutic
treatments that are now available. The most likely worst scenario
is Trump being isolated or convalescing for 2-4 weeks.

I do not expect this illness to cause a panic. This kind of event is
easily handled by Wall Street.

If Trump does die, before or after the election, then Pence will take
his place. The election will take place as scheduled. People don't
vote for the president. They vote for electors who vote for the
president.

If both Trump and Pence die, then Pelosi becomes president. That's
what the Democrats want.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-02-2020

** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Russian and Ottoman empires

DaKardii Wrote:> John, in my opinion the only reason this conflict has escalated
> (rather than died down as you previously predicted) is because of
> Turkey's meddling. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in Awakening eras,
> but Turkey is in a Crisis era. Armenia and Azerbaijan don't want
> war, but Turkey does. And what's a better way to escalate things
> than deploying al-Qaeda-affiliated militants from Syria who have
> no business to even be there?

I think that this analysis is correct. However, when I said that the
conflict would probably fizzle, I certainly didn't mean within four
days. I mean that it's likely to fizzle over the next few weeks or
months, or even over a couple of years. The point is that it won't
escalate into a full-scale crisis war -- unless it turns into a major
war between Russia and Turkey.

DaKardii Wrote:> You have previously asserted that the former Russian Empire and
> the former Ottoman Empire should all be on the same timeline. But
> based on my personal observations, that does not appear to be the
> case.

> Turkey, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, did not have an
> existential crisis in the '90s. It is having such a crisis only
> now, 25 years later. This means that the former Russian Empire and
> the former Ottoman Empire, if they were ever on the on the same
> timeline to begin with, went in separate directions at some point,
> probably due to the ways they were affected by the Cold War.

> Either the former Russian Empire's timeline was accelerated by
> Communist policies, or the former Ottoman Empire's timeline was
> slowed down due to incessant interventions by both sides of the
> Cold War (and by the West alone after 1991).

I'm trying to think what you mean by this, since I don't recall
making that assertion in exactly that way. In fact, since both
empires consist of multiple nations, even all the nations within
the same empire would not have the same timeline.

What I think you're referring to is theoretical discussions of
how timelines merge over a period of centuries, and how most
timelines have merged into what I call a WW I timeline and a
WW II timeline. However, these are generalizations, and each nation
must be analyzed separately. For example Iran and Turkey are on
the "WW I timeline," but Iran's crisis war climaxed in 1909, and
Turkey's in 1922.

The other point is that countries on the WW I timeline had their
crisis wars early enough so that their next crisis war also occurred
in the 20th century. Examples are Iran's 1979 revolution, and the
Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the 1990s. However, Turkey and Russia
are on the "WW I timeline," but they have not yet had another
crisis war, and are overdue for one.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-02-2020

** 02-Oct-2020 World View: Rise and fall of empires

Guest Wrote:> The rise and fall of nations and empires, an endless procession
> throughout 5,000 years of human civilisation. What were the
> chances of the US being the first nation to maintain this position
> in the history of human civilisation? Almost zero.

> A new nation becomes an old nation. The pie has been carved and
> an established elite look to pull up the drawbridge to keep
> themselves in the very comfortable position they are in
> now. Social mobility is at the same atrocious level as the UK and
> they use the same mechanisms for social stratification, private
> schools and universities (they take no chances in the US).

> Can you think of anyone at the top in the US that didn’t go to an
> Ivy League University? The generations that made fortunes fade
> into the past to be replaced by generations that inherit
> fortunes. Capitalist dynamism is replaced by rent seeking, as the
> idea now is to conserve fortunes rather than make fortunes; the
> world of finance dominates to meet this goal.

> Finance allows the wealthy to use their money to make more money.
> Where can they get the best return on their investments? In the
> new dynamic nations of Asia, not in their own country.

> To conserve fortunes they move taxes off themselves and onto
> labour making their own nation internationally uncompetitive. They
> don’t like paying taxes and preside over a decline in the
> infrastructure that was built when the nation was young and
> dynamic.

> They even look on the existing businesses, that are now on the
> stock market, as a revenue stream and these businesses are there
> for them to cannibalise for personal gain. The activist
> shareholders try and rip the heart out of the real economy until
> it collapses and dies.

> Those old US industrialists who made their fortunes from the real
> economy, making useful things and providing useful services will
> be spinning in their graves.

> It is the cycle of nations and empires: Dynamism, success,
> complacency and decay. Adios America. Hello China (not that China
> will be any different, it is the endless procession).

> We (the UK) were the global superpower before the US, look at us
> now!

This is very inspirational, almost poetic. You ought to turn it into
a book.

This is Arnold J. Toynbee's view of history, of the rise and fall of
empires. I've been developing Generational Dynamics for almost 20
years now. 20 years ago, I would have agreed with Toynbee's view.

But now I look at things quite differently. Instead of looking at
entire nation empires -- Roman Empire, British Empire, etc. -- look at
civilizations. You can start the Western civilization from Athens and
Crete in ancient Greece, see it move to the Roman Empire, move to
various European empires, to the British empire, and to the American
empire. When you look at it that way, there's been only one empire --
the Western Civilization Empire -- and it's survived for many
millennia, but has only suffered minor changes in terms of internal
national boundaries, capital cities, and so forth.

Whatever happens in WW III, I would expect the Western Civilization
Empire to continue to exist and to lead the world.

But you're suggesting something different, that a new Empire will lead
the world, what we might call the "Asian Civilization Empire." I
believe that this was Toynbee's view, and 20 years ago I think I
probably agreed with it. But not today.

I've now spent 20 years developing Generational Dynamics, and I've
written thousands of articles analyzing China and other Asian
countries. I've also spent many thousands of hours of research to
write my book on "War between China and Japan," and also the book that
I'm currently writing on Vietnam.

And my conclusion is unequivocal: Asian countries are incompetent to
govern themselves, and couldn't hope to come close to governing an
empire.

China is the obvious choice, but China has a chronic, corrosive core
illness that makes it impossible for China ever to do anything but go
insane and self-destruct. That core illness has a name: Confucianism.

Confucianism means that a leader requires an imaginary "mandate from
heaven" to govern, and that if something goes wrong, then the leader
has lost his mandate from heaven, and it's time for an anti-government
rebellion. Confucianism means that the entire rest of the world is
barbarians, and the only way to interact with them is to treat them as
donkeys whose only function is to produce stuff for the Confucian
Chinese, and who are to be treated as contemptously as possible.

It's common to identify Confucianism as a religion, as opposed to
Christianity, Buddhism or Islam. But the Chinese make it clear that
they do not view it that way. The opposite of Confucianism is not
Christianity. It's Democracy. The Chinese Communists, who are the
current incarnation of Confucianism, view Democracy as an evil
ideology whose purpose is to destroy Confucianism.

Western religions like Christianity are evil to Confucians because
they encourage the evil of Democracy.

Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western
Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has
succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy. It
has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or another
this empire will continue to lead the world, because only Democracy is
capable of governing empires.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-02-2020

If one is to compare the United States to all the empires of the past, then the United States is now impressive influence, power, stability, and prosperity. The United States may not have be an empire in the sense of having a monarch claiming to be more than a king. Call it (at best) an Empire of Liberty. Its territorial expansion effectively ended about 120 years ago. It has a high win-loss record. Aggressive powers that have thought the Unite States soft and decadent find themselves facing an exhaust-and-kill strategy. If it finds its own weakness it tends to self-correct.

The President of the United States is rarely around long enough to become a doddering old man or to develop the madness of absolute power. Competitve elections prove the right way to deal with politicians becoming too big for their breeches.

So you have read Toynbee's A Study in Civilization? Good. So have I , and I have sought analogs in the civilizations of the past. I am tempted to see the era 1914-1989 as the Time of Troubles of Western Christian Civilization, beginning with Gavrilo Princip assassinating the Archduke and ending on Christmas Day, 1989 with Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu being "ventilated" in the effective end of the Cold War. (OK, Sarajevo is on the fringe between Western Catholicism and Eastern Orthodoxy as well as the extreme northwestern extension of Islam, and Romania seems a hybrid of Western Christian and Eastern Christian societies. History is not a neat study). There might be several Times of Trouble before the civilization succumbs to the Universal State, a political entity that encompasses practically the whole of a civilization, with the dominant society centralizing all political and economic power and setting rigid standards of conformity for all in an attempt to suppress insurrection and stave off 'barbarian' threats. Cultural life ossifies, becoming uncreative and unimaginative... and further reform is nearly impossible. Novel solutions become unthinkable because such offend the sensibilities of people (typically bureaucracies, bloat of which becomes inevitable). The rest of the world catches up while the Universal State becomes 'rotten' and 'brittle' even though the facade is impressive. People chafing under centralized rule from afar that determines everything welcome liberation by a new set of empire-builders.

The West has had several potential Universal States. Spain at its peak seemed set on transforming England into a satellite state and restoring its domination of the Netherlands while Austria might become the dominant power in Germany. Napoleon held the whole of western Europe except Britain in his hands before his mad invasion of Russia. Wilhelm II's Germany was one decisive victory in 1918 from smashing France and becoming the dominant power in the West . Then came the Third Reich. Finally the Soviet Union suggested a willingness to break through the Fulda Gap and the Alps to sweep all the way to Gibraltar.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-03-2020

I support a series similar to John’s. The WIERD thread projects one way of looking at it. The Reformation, Enlightenment, Industrial Revolution, and the recent Cousin's Wars series of S&H crises seem the dominant thread. Napoleon and several others of Great Britain’s former colonies form others. Japan and West Germany joined with other threads after World War II.

There were precursors to WEIRD before the printing press accelerated things.

(10-02-2020, 04:44 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The West has had several potential Universal States. Spain at its peak seemed set on transforming England into a satellite state and restoring its domination of the Netherlands while Austria might become the dominant power in Germany. Napoleon held the whole of western Europe except Britain in his hands before his mad invasion of Russia. Wilhelm II's Germany was one decisive victory in 1918 from smashing France and becoming the dominant power in the West . Then came the Third Reich. Finally the Soviet Union suggested a willingness to break through the Fulda Gap and the Alps to sweep all the way to Gibraltar.

These are all military attempts by tribal thinkers to fight the main thread. They were almost, significant attempts to stop the primary Anglo American mainline. I would like to think they were doomed to fail, but they came all too close.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-03-2020

Tribal thought is often a reaction to modernity. People who claim some superiority of their nation over the merits of other nations set them selves up for the biggest of all blunders -- underestimating the Enemy. Just look at what Hitler had to say about the United States.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-03-2020

(10-03-2020, 09:41 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Tribal thought is often a reaction to modernity. People who claim some superiority of their nation over the merits of other nations set them selves up for the biggest of all blunders -- underestimating the Enemy. Just look at what Hitler had to say about the United States.

Yes, but tribal thought existed long before modernity, and people were underestimating the Enemy as well. I just think having a military streak used to be cost effective, that a culture with a streak of aggressiveness could often come to become dominant. One that ignored military capability let itself be eaten. It as become a bad habit, something that is hard to let go of.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-04-2020

(10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: But you're suggesting something different, that a new Empire will lead the world, what we might call the "Asian Civilization Empire." I believe that this was Toynbee's view, and 20 years ago I think I probably agreed with it. But not today.

I've now spent 20 years developing Generational Dynamics, and I've written thousands of articles analyzing China and other Asian countries. I've also spent many thousands of hours of research to write my book on "War between China and Japan," and also the book that I'm currently writing on Vietnam.

And my conclusion is unequivocal: Asian countries are incompetent to govern themselves, and couldn't hope to come close to governing an empire.

China is the obvious choice, but China has a chronic, corrosive core illness that makes it impossible for China ever to do anything but go insane and self-destruct. That core illness has a name: Confucianism.

Confucianism means that a leader requires an imaginary "mandate from heaven" to govern, and that if something goes wrong, then the leader has lost his mandate from heaven, and it's time for an anti-government rebellion. Confucianism means that the entire rest of the world is barbarians, and the only way to interact with them is to treat them as donkeys whose only function is to produce stuff for the Confucian Chinese, and who are to be treated as contemptously as possible.

It's common to identify Confucianism as a religion, as opposed to Christianity, Buddhism or Islam. But the Chinese make it clear that they do not view it that way. The opposite of Confucianism is not Christianity. It's Democracy. The Chinese Communists, who are the current incarnation of Confucianism, view Democracy as an evil ideology whose purpose is to destroy Confucianism.

I call the major flaw autocracy. The elites and the king / emperor attempt to retain power, and thus do not take full advantage of democracy. They run the culture for the sake of it's elite and military prowess, not for the people. Confucianism is one form of it, but hardly the only form. Tribal thinking takes different shapes all over the world. Each culture makes a different mistake. This includes but is not limited to invading Russia, but more broadly believing their culture is stronger than all others combined.

(10-02-2020, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Getting back to the original subject, what I call the "Western Civilization Empire," starting from ancient Athens and Crete, has succeeded because it's based on the core principle of Democracy. It has spawned sub-empires over the centuries, but in one form or another this empire will continue to lead the world, because only Democracy is capable of governing empires.

I am not sure the West is one continuous civilization or empire. WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrial, Rich Democratic) attributes it to the Reformation, to proposing everyone should learn to read the Bible, thus altering the dominant shape of the human mind. If you learn to read you think different. You can argue that the sequence of Rome leading to Catholicism ought to be labeled as a different empire or civilization than the protestant north, but even so Catholism was a definite precursor.

Guns Germs and Steel identifies other factors that made the West dominant with the start of the Industrial Age.

But these are nitpicks. As a whole I concur that Western thought and civilization are looking to continue dominance. Tribal thinking used to be dominant. Cultures had to develop military power or loose out in the race for dominance. That changed as the Industrial Age took shape. Thinking your culture and your state is oh so superior become a good way to get squashed, or at least become WEIRDer. Xenophobia used to go hand in hand with elites trying to make a profit, and they could make up an idealistic reason easy enough. Now, though, a defensive alliance often says no to such attempts at imperialism. They firmly say no. Bush 43 was one of the latest to learn the lesson. Even the Western core state can be told no.

It is strange that you are recognizing the virtue of Western Civilization, and still being obsessed with Xenophobia to the exclusion of idealism and profit seeking as reasons for war. You don’t seem to get why the West has become so dominant.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-05-2020

** 05-Oct-2020 World View: Russia and China

utahbob Wrote:> John, it looks like things maybe getting interesting on the
> Chinese/Russian border:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3l6Cf46fAs

> I used to tell my troops when things get interesting, you got to
> have a sense of humor. So, totally unrelated to anything on this
> forum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CsrjNbTNZU

> Be safe!

Your first video gave me a very strange feeling.

These days, in my Methuselean Boomerdom, I always feel like a Martian
visiting earth. I watch everything, I can see exactly what's going
on, and I can see where everything is headed. But being a Martian, I
don't feel like I have any emotional connection to it anymore, since
the Earthlings just say one idiotic, delusional thing after another,
and they do one thing after another to make things worse. One of the
most delusional things I hear all the time is that Russia is a danger
to America and China is not. Being a Martian, it's been clear to me
for almost 20 years that the opposite is true.

So this video was a shock to me because it described what was really
going on. In fact, it could have been a Generational Dynamics video,
if there were such a thing. Whereas the mainstream media and most
pundits (on both left and right) talk about a Russia-China alliance
against America, this video disregards the supposed alliance and talks
about things like China's attempts to annex other countries'
territories, including Russia's Vladivostok, and China's overall
contempt for Russians. These are all things that I've written about
frequently for over 15 years.

As far as I can tell, the Defense Update group that produced this
video is Israeli. That makes sense, since this video could not have
been produced by any American organization, either on the left or the
right. Americans are totally oblivious to what's going on in the
world.

As for your second video, being a Martian, Earthling Metal music
isn't to my taste.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-05-2020

** 05-Oct-2020 World View: Putting lives at risk

Higgenbotham Wrote:The New York Times doesn't normally allow me to read articles
without a paid subscription, but they allowed me to read this.

Quote:As Trump Seeks to Project Strength, Doctors Disclose
Alarming Episodes

The president made a surprise outing from his hospital bed in an
effort to show his improvement, but the murky and shifting
narrative of his illness was rewritten again with grim new
details.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/us/politics/trump-virus.html

Why?

Quote:“Every single person in the vehicle during that completely
unnecessary Presidential ‘drive-by’ just now has to be quarantined
for 14 days,” Dr. James P. Phillips, an attending physician at
Walter Reed, wrote on Twitter. “They might get sick. They may
die. For political theater. Commanded by Trump to put their lives
at risk for theater. This is insanity.”

To modify what was said during the Bill Clinton campaign, it's the
stock market bubble, stupid.

Lives can be put at risk to keep the stock market bubble going.
Yes, stock market bubbles involve insanity.

When you read in the NY Times that Trump is putting lives at risk,
you have to understand that this isn't about Trump.

For over ten years, the NY Times, CNN, and the Democrats have been
expressing vitriolic hatred for the 63 million Tea Partiers and Trump
supporters. They used words like "teabaggers," and expressed some of
the most foul-mouthed insults to ordinary Tea Party members. This
hatred is similar to the hatred that the Nazis had for Jews, or that
the Hutus had for Tutsis, or that the Democrats in the KKK a century
ago had for blacks. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

So in this case, you had Trump waving to crowds of hated Trump
supporters who were cheering Trump, waving American flags, and
expressing joy that he seemed OK. This triggered waves of choking
loathing in the stomachs of the NY Times reporters, so they had a
nutjob reporter write an article that he was putting lives at risk.

Needless to say, all kinds of precautions were taken by Trump's
medical team to make sure that no one's life would be at risk in the
drive-by. It's silly to suppose otherwise.

As for the timing of the drive-by, maybe it was timed to take place
just before the Asian markets opened. But that's not a crime, or even
unusual.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-06-2020

(10-05-2020, 09:28 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: For over ten years, the NY Times, CNN, and the Democrats have been expressing vitriolic hatred for the 63 million Tea Partiers and Trump supporters. They used words like "teabaggers," and expressed some of the most foul-mouthed insults to ordinary Tea Party members. This hatred is similar to the hatred that the Nazis had for Jews, or that the Hutus had for Tutsis, or that the Democrats in the KKK a century ago had for blacks. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

You didn’t mention how this partisan hatred infects Generational Dynamics. Because there is so much of this junk, you can’t trust anything in GD that requires understanding the other guy’s motivation. Sorta natural for an unraveling. Conservatives don’t want to change, progressives do, and they yell at each other. It gets to the point of irrationality at times. There just comes a time when problems have to be addressed. Disease protocols have to be implemented. Violent racial policing has to be outlawed. The most severe problems faced by the culture are addressed, except some think these are features not bugs. These have to be quashed. It is time to quash. The NY Times did a bit of quashing.

I think S&H called the phenomenon a crisis.

I for one was cheering the Tea Party on, initially. When they strove to get rid of the elitist influence in the Republican Party, they were a few steps ahead of the Democrats in rejecting their unraveling establishment. Unfortunately, the Tea Party latched onto the biggest alligator in the swamp. There is no Tea Party anymore. They morphed into the Trump Base. The Establishment too is supporting Trump.

Perhaps one more Supreme Court justice, then it is time to head into history. The Republicans will be fighting among the various factions for a while. I don’t really see who will come up on top.

I think the coastal media is making a bit much of a deal with the drive around the hospital block and the reentry to the White House. But, hey, if you live by the photo op, you have to expect the opposing press will try to kill you by the photo op. Solving the problem becomes mandatory in the crisis, and the bug is a problem. One talking head was comparing the reentry event with the Bible photo op. Which was going to come to define the Trump presidency? Which image will be common in the history books? I suspect it will depend on whether COVID or Black Lives Matter is the defining issue of 2020. I suspect it will be the bug.