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+--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html)
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-17-2020
** 17-Oct-2020 World View: Ho Chi Minh and OSS
(10-17-2020, 06:31 AM)David Horn Wrote: > Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed. Ignoring the Viet
> Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since
> we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war.
> Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views
> in long form?
I'm not sure what you're complaining about, since what you're
describing is a fairly insignificant fact in a short summary of
three wars.
Nonetheless, the fact that the American OSS collaborated with Ho
Chi Minh to fight the Japanese in Vietnam is certainly amusing,
and I'll want to add that tale to my book.
And if the Americans made some promise to Ho Chi Minh, I doubt that he
was so credulous as to actually believe any such promise, and also I
assume he made many promises of his own that he had no intention of
keeping.
However, as I briefly checked out this American - Ho Chi Minh
connection this morning, I note that the following: "Her study also
hints that, had America continued to champion the anti-colonials and
their quest for independence, rather than caving in to the French, we
might have been spared our long and very lethal war in Vietnam."
This is pure silliness. It's not remotely possible we would have
done this, or that it would have made any difference if we had.
First, France was our ally after WW II. There was no way we would
abandon our ally in favor of Ho Chi Minh.
Second, the mood of the people, in America and Europe, would never
have permitted it. The people were exhausted and traumatized from
fighting two world wars, and they saw Communism on the march, in
Russia, in China, behind the Iron Curtain in eastern Europe, in Korea,
in Laos, and in North Vietnam. It is literally impossible that the
traumatized Western public would have tolerated simply walking away,
and allowing Communist North Vietnam to take over the Republic of
Vietnam, a democracy, without a struggle.
The controlling political philosophy at the time was the Truman
Doctrine, which said that it's better to fight a small war now
to prevent WW III later. Kennedy doubled down on the Truman Doctrine
with his "ask not" speech. So there was literally no choice but
to fight the Communists trying to take over South Vietnam.
Third, in the grand scheme of things, and from the point of view of a
Generational Dynamics analysis, and from the point of view of Vietnam
itself (and the book is about Vietnam, not the US), the most
significant part of the story was the series of massive genocides that
occurred in the region in 1975-1990. These genocides had been queued
up for centuries, and the only way that the French colonization and
the American intervention might have affected them might have been to
have postponed them. But they had to happen.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 10-17-2020
(10-17-2020, 06:31 AM)David Horn Wrote: Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed. Ignoring the Viet Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war.
Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views in long form?
"We" guaranteed Ho support? Speak for yourself. Maybe a random OSS agent intimated that the US would support decolonization, but random agents are not empowered to speak for the US government or nation.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-17-2020
(10-17-2020, 06:31 AM)David Horn Wrote: Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed. Ignoring the Viet Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war.
Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views in long form?
I am finding that one’s ideology, one’s personal opinion, and an attempt at objective analysis are very hard to separate, especially in an ideologue, one whose primary way of looking at things is through his political beliefs. In the case of Generational Dynamics, you can count on any understanding of motivation to be replaced with what would normally be ideology, and a bad parody of the ideology of rivals. In Classic’s and CW’s case you get the delusion that a whole bunch of people share their way of looking at things, an ability to pretend any evidence to the contrary is not real. Stating facts is irrelevant if the facts are not convenient to the ideologue.
You have to take the other person’s world view and values seriously. How does the ideologue view the world? What does he think important to strive for? Mix in all too often a bad misunderstanding of the motivation of rival ideologies. Assume an ideologue arranges his understanding of opposing ideologies to best justify his own ideology.
If you want to examine your own biases in this direction, assume liberals will disregard the Constitution and rule of laws when it conveniences them. Most obviously, the Bill of Rights is supposed to reflect the values and world views of everybody. It shouldn’t change without a change in the supermajority’s values. This doesn’t seem to effect liberals, who place legislation from the bench and political whims ahead of the rule of law.
Generational Dynamics pretends to be scientific, but is less concerned with making the best possible match with reality than better justifying the author’s personal ideology. In that sense, it is not scientific at all. Any real research into reality is badly warped to justify the ideology.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-17-2020
** 17-Oct-2020 World View: Crap from Beyond
(10-17-2020, 01:09 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > Generational Dynamics pretends to be scientific, but is less
> concerned with making the best possible match with reality than
> better justifying the author’s personal ideology. In that sense,
> it is not scientific at all. Any real research into reality is
> badly warped to justify the ideology.
You keep posting the same crap over and over, and it's the same kind
of crap that Sean Love used to post. Which makes me wonder -- did
Sean Love die and you're channeling his crap from beyond?
Or is he still alive and feeding you crap on a regular basis for you
to post?
Just wondering. It would explain a lot.
If he's still alive, you ought to invite him back, so the two of you
can enjoy a crapfest together.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-17-2020
(10-17-2020, 02:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 17-Oct-2020 World View: Crap from Beyond
(10-17-2020, 01:09 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > Generational Dynamics pretends to be scientific, but is less
> concerned with making the best possible match with reality than
> better justifying the author’s personal ideology. In that sense,
> it is not scientific at all. Any real research into reality is
> badly warped to justify the ideology.
You keep posting the same crap over and over, and it's the same kind
of crap that Sean Love used to post. Which makes me wonder -- did
Sean Love die and you're channeling his crap from beyond?
Or is he still alive and feeding you crap on a regular basis for you
to post?
Just wondering. It would explain a lot.
If he's still alive, you ought to invite him back, so the two of you
can enjoy a crapfest together.
Sean is still alive, or at least his Facebook page is active enough. I could send a link and a URL if you miss him.
That people see the world quite differently and value different things is quite obvious. It goes to the extent that some believe any perspective other than one's own is crap. Building a system which tries to acknowledge these diverse viewpoints is actually quite a challenge. You ought to try it.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-17-2020
** 17-Oct-2020 World View: Crapfest
(10-17-2020, 03:36 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: > Sean is still alive, or at least his Facebook page is active
> enough. I could send a link and a URL if you miss him.
Yeah, I think you should. You and he will really get off on one
another, competing with each other in a crapfest. You two will have a
barrel of fun, and it will be fun for me and everyone else to watch.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-18-2020
(10-17-2020, 08:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Yeah, I think you should. You and he will really get off on one another, competing with each other in a crapfest. You two will have a barrel of fun, and it will be fun for me and everyone else to watch.
Crapfest? If you put out a crap theory that everyone who doesn't share your values rejects, if you treat everybody who doesn't agree with it like crap, you don't need the exotic Cassandra myth to explain what is going on. The common saying that what goes around comes around will do.
By the way, Sean recently got married, and judging from his Facebook page his social life is going fine.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-18-2020
(10-17-2020, 01:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(10-17-2020, 06:31 AM)David Horn Wrote: Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed. Ignoring the Viet Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war.
Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views in long form?
"We" guaranteed Ho support? Speak for yourself. Maybe a random OSS agent intimated that the US would support decolonization, but random agents are not empowered to speak for the US government or nation.
Actually, it was Wild Bill Donovan who was authorized to speak for the US on this -- not exactly a minor player. It was a simple deal: we would agree NOT to back the French returning as colonialist masters, and the Viet Mihn would take it from there. If you add the stupidity of the Mossadegh overthrow to the mix (and subsequent Allende overthrow under Nixon and the WMD nonsense from Bush-II), the track record of US foreign affairs outside of NATO and the occupation and eventual redemption of Germany and Japan is pretty bleak in the post-WWII period.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-18-2020
** 18-Oct-2020 World View: Azerbaijan-Armenia escalation brings calls for US to intervene
![[Image: map-NK-1.jpg]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/map-NK-1.jpg)
- Map of Nagorno-Karabakh battlefield (Al-Jazeera)
A week ago, Russia mediated a truce between Azerbaijan and Armenia in
the war over Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions. These areas are
officially part of Azerbaijan, but they are occupied and governed by
Armenians, since the 1991-1994 war.
That truce lasted one day. Each side accused the other of violating
the truce.
During the last week, Azerbaijan, aided by Turkey, has made progress
on the ground, capturing regions outside of and adjacent to
Nagorno-Karabakh that have been populated and controlled by ethnic
Armenians since the 1994 truce.
Yesterday, on Saturday, France mediated a truce between Azerbaijan and
Armenia in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions.
That truce lasted one day. Each side accused the other of violating
the truce.
It's now widely believed that without some sort of international
intervention, the war will continue to escalate.
I've heard several different journalists on BBC and al-Jazeera
opine as follows (paraphrasing):
Quote:> "Some kind of international intervention is required.
> Russia has failed to bring about a ceasefire. France has failed
> to bring about a ceasefire. There's only one major actor in the
> international community that we haven't heard from, and that's the
> United States. Many analysts are calling on the United States to
> intervene, lest this become a major war."
There are all kinds of ironies in statements like this.
First, if the US did intervene somehow, these same journalists and
analysts would be whining about US imperialism. That's the way it's
always been in the decades following WW II, since the 1947
announcement of the Truman Doctrine, later reaffirmed by president
Kennedy in his "ask not" speech, that said that it's better to fight a
small war now to prevent WW III later, making the United States into
Policeman of the World.
Second, the US is in the middle of an election circus, and no one
outside of Secretary of State James Pompeo is even paying attention to
what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, he did say on Thursday
that he hoped Armenia could "defend" itself against Azerbaijan in the
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, adding that Turkey’s role had
increased the risk of further violence.
Third, those calling for US intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh don't
specify what form that intervention would take, beyond Pompeo's
statement. SURELY they don't mean some sort of military action by the
US. Maybe they mean sanctions on Turkey, but there already are
sanctions on Turkey, and further sanctions would only infuriate them.
So it seems very unlikely that the US will get involved, despite the
wishes of some in the "international community."
The following is my guess as to how the war will proceed: Azerbaijan,
aided and encouraged by Turkey, will continue to gain territory. The
fighting may pause due to some international agreement for a few weeks
or months, but eventually Azerbaijan will take control of Karabakh and
adjacent regions. At that point, the Azeris who lost their homes in
the 1994 ceasefire will demand the right to return, and will demand
revenge for what they view as Armenian atrocities. This will lead to
the issue of revenge atrocities and ethnic cleansing.
That's my guess as to the most likely path of the Nagorno-Karabakh
war, unless the war is overtaken by other events -- such as World War
III with China.
---- Sources:
-- Pompeo hopes Armenia can 'defend' itself from Azerbaijan
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/pompeo-armenia-defend-turkey-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh.html
(AlMonitor, 16-Oct-2020)
-- Armenia, Azerbaijan accuse each other of violating truce
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/17/new-armenia-azerbaijan-truce-comes-into-force-in-nagorno-karabakh
(A-Jazeera, 18-Oct-2020)
-- Azerbaijan says it shot down another Armenian fighter jet: Live
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/18/armenia-accuses-azerbaijan-of-violating-truce-in-nagorno-karabakh
(Al-Jazeera, 18-Oct-2020)
-- Armenia, Azerbaijan blame each other for truce violations
https://apnews.com/article/international-news-azerbaijan-armenia-a950e1618d77aa56f720fc9511bfdba0
(AP, 18-Oct-2020)
---- Related articles:
*** 11-Oct-2020 World View: Response to Azerbaijan-Armenia article
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=54944#p54944
** 11-Oct-20 World View -- Russia mediates humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e201011.htm#e201011
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 10-18-2020
(10-18-2020, 10:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:(10-17-2020, 01:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(10-17-2020, 06:31 AM)David Horn Wrote: Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed. Ignoring the Viet Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war.
Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views in long form?
"We" guaranteed Ho support? Speak for yourself. Maybe a random OSS agent intimated that the US would support decolonization, but random agents are not empowered to speak for the US government or nation.
... It was a simple deal: we would agree NOT to back the French returning as colonialist masters, and the Viet Mihn would take it from there.
That's neutrality, not "our support". If we promised that, we kept our promise: the French stayed on without our help, and then left by 1956. Not our fault that Diem was able to hold Ho off, and in fact we undermined Diem too.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 10-18-2020
(10-18-2020, 10:32 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 18-Oct-2020 World View: Azerbaijan-Armenia escalation brings calls for US to intervene
- Map of Nagorno-Karabakh battlefield (Al-Jazeera)
What do we know about the "Armenian-occupied territories around Nagrno-Karabakh"? Are these territories also claimed by Azerbaijan? Do they have residents, and are the residents primarily Azeri, like in Nagorno-Karabakh?
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-18-2020
(10-18-2020, 02:06 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(10-18-2020, 10:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:(10-17-2020, 01:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(10-17-2020, 06:31 AM)David Horn Wrote: Even this sketchy overview is seriously flawed. Ignoring the Viet Minh as OSS clients during WW-II is particularly irritating, since we guaranteed them our support for decolonization after the war.
Did you actually look into this, or just write your personal views in long form?
"We" guaranteed Ho support? Speak for yourself. Maybe a random OSS agent intimated that the US would support decolonization, but random agents are not empowered to speak for the US government or nation.
... It was a simple deal: we would agree NOT to back the French returning as colonialist masters, and the Viet Mihn would take it from there.
That's neutrality, not "our support". If we promised that, we kept our promise: the French stayed on without our help, and then left by 1956. Not our fault that Diem was able to hold Ho off, and in fact we undermined Diem too.
We had assets on the ground supporting the French years before Dien Bien Phu, because I knew a few of them. And the Viet Mihn were well aware of our help. The first few names on the Vietnam War Memorial wall should have been from that time, but the arbitrary cutoff was the 1955 creation of MACV.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-18-2020
** 18-Oct-2020 World View: Armenian-occupied territories
(10-18-2020, 02:09 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > What do we know about the "Armenian-occupied territories around
> Nagrno-Karabakh"? Are these territories also claimed by
> Azerbaijan? Do they have residents, and are the residents
> primarily Azeri, like in Nagorno-Karabakh?"
My understanding is that these are territories that were captured by
Armenia in the 1992-94 war, are populated and controlled by Armenians,
like Nagorno-Karabakh, but are not part of the "Republic of Artsakh,"
which is the name given by Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, which it says
it would like to be an independent nation. I've heard Armenian
officials refer to these territories as "buffer zones" between
Arksakh and Azerbaijan.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-18-2020
** 18-Oct-2020 World View: American assets supporting the French
(10-18-2020, 03:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: > We had assets on the ground supporting the French years before
> Dien Bien Phu, because I knew a few of them. And the Viet Mihn
> were well aware of our help. The first few names on the Vietnam
> War Memorial wall should have been from that time, but the
> arbitrary cutoff was the 1955 creation of MACV.
The following is from K. W. Taylor, A History Of The Vietnamese,
Cambridge University Press, 2013:
Quote:> "The contradiction between French colonialism and
> American promotion of an independent, sovereign Vietnamese state
> had been a prominent aspect of US involvement in Vietnamese
> affairs in the late 1940s and early 1950s. In the late 1950s,
> although the French were no longer part of the situation, an
> analogous contradiction between controlling the policies of a
> client regime and respecting the sovereignty of an allied
> government became embedded in the US bureaucratic structure that
> grew up around the American commitment to defend a noncommunist
> South Vietnam. This contradiction became increasingly volatile as
> the Hanoi decision to initiate war in the south gathered momentum
> and Saigon's dependence upon US assistance accordingly
> increased."
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-18-2020
(10-18-2020, 05:13 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 18-Oct-2020 World View: American assets supporting the French
(10-18-2020, 03:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: > We had assets on the ground supporting the French years before
> Dien Bien Phu, because I knew a few of them. And the Viet Mihn
> were well aware of our help. The first few names on the Vietnam
> War Memorial wall should have been from that time, but the
> arbitrary cutoff was the 1955 creation of MACV.
The following is from K. W. Taylor, A History Of The Vietnamese,
Cambridge University Press, 2013:
Quote:> "The contradiction between French colonialism and
> American promotion of an independent, sovereign Vietnamese state
> had been a prominent aspect of US involvement in Vietnamese
> affairs in the late 1940s and early 1950s. In the late 1950s,
> although the French were no longer part of the situation, an
> analogous contradiction between controlling the policies of a
> client regime and respecting the sovereignty of an allied
> government became embedded in the US bureaucratic structure that
> grew up around the American commitment to defend a noncommunist
> South Vietnam. This contradiction became increasingly volatile as
> the Hanoi decision to initiate war in the south gathered momentum
> and Saigon's dependence upon US assistance accordingly
> increased."
OK, but so what? We decided to eliminate any potential "Marxist" government in the south, and guaranteed a bloody war as a result. That one's on Ike. If he had OK'd the election in '56, things would have been different ... but, of course, he didn't.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Bob Butler 54 - 10-18-2020
(10-18-2020, 06:48 PM)David Horn Wrote: OK, but so what? We decided to eliminate any potential "Marxist" government in the south, and guaranteed a bloody war as a result. That one's on Ike. If he had OK'd the election in '56, things would have been different ... but, of course, he didn't.
I'm no expert on Vietnam, but it seems what is missing here it that the alternative to a Marxist government was to leave the Catholic elite in charge, and they were the corrupt elites of the French in colonial times. The Marxists were linked with the Buddhist cause, the locals. In fact, it was more the common folk against the elites that was the real conflict, with the various sides using the east - west conflict to make it sort of a proxy war, except it was confused who was using who for what.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-18-2020
*** 19-Oct-20 World View -- Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
- Red Shirt vs Yellow Shirt protests
- Red shirt protests in 2010
- Returning 'power to the people' in 2014
- Demands to reform Thailand's monarchy
- Brief generational history of Thailand
****
**** Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
****
![[Image: g201018b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g201018b.jpg)
Pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok hold up their mobile phones as they rally in defiance of the government's emergency declaration (EPA)
Thailand's military junta government is in crisis after five
continuous days of anti-government protests in Bangkok by thousands of
protesters, mostly young students, demanding that army general Prayuth
Chan-ocha step down as prime minister. Protests are also spreading to
other provinces.
A new aspect of these protests is the demand that the monarchy
be reformed. In the past, protesters have not made this kind
of demand, since criticizing the monarchy in Thailand is
considered a severe violation of the law.
On Friday, police in Bangkok used a water cannon with chemical-laced
water that stings the eyes to repel thousands of pro-democracy
protesters. However, the protesters were mostly young students, and
some were children, and so the police have been heavily criticized for
attacking children with chemical laced water.
The protests began in July, and reached tens of thousands of
protesters on some days in the last few days. The protesters have
been copying some of the tactics of the Hong Kong pro-democracy
protests of last year, forming flash mobs that scatter when confronted
by police, but then form a new protest in another place.
Dozens of pro-democracy activists have been jailed, but that hasn't
stopped the protests, as they've used online communications to play
cat and mouse with the police.
The protesters used "pop-up demonstrations" to outfox the police,
leaving the police protecting an empty intersection, while they
gathered at another intersection.
The protesters are mostly young people, born since the late 1990s, who
have known only coups, protests and military governments during their
lifetime. Many of them have vivid memories of 2010, when the Bangkok
army, led by General Prayuth Chan-ocha, used tanks and live fire to
disperse and kill "red shirt" protesters in Bangkok.
The most recent coup occurred in May 2014, when a military junta led
by General Prayuth Chan-ocha overthrew the democratically elected
government of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, and made Prayuth the
prime minister.
****
**** Red Shirt vs Yellow Shirt protests
****
The core issue in Thailand is that there are two ethnic groups, and
the ones in charge are in the minority, and the minority is repressing
the majority ethnic group. In any country, this would be a situation
resulting in riots, protests or even civil war, and Thailand is no
exception.
The vast majority of Thailand's population are the dark-skinned lower
class indigenous people, also called "Thai-Thai" and "red shirts,"
comprising about 3/4 of the population, living mostly in the northern
and northeastern regions of Thailand, but who come to Bangkok mostly
to work in menial jobs as servants of the Thai-Chinese.
The Thai-Chinese, also called "yellow shirts," are the light-skinned
descendants of a wave of Chinese workers that poured into the country
to find jobs in the 1930s. They comprise 1/4 of the population, live
mostly around Bangkok, and are extremely contemptuous of the
indigenous Thai-Thai, whom they consider to be inferior.
What this means is that if Thailand holds a free and fair election,
and race is an issue, as it always is, then the indigenous Thai-Thai
red shirts are going to win every time, much to the distress of the
élite Thai-Chinese in Bangkok.
In the 2000s decade, an extremely charismatic leader Thaksin
Shinawatra became prime minister in 2001. He was born in Chiang Mai,
a city in northern Thailand with a long history of restive opposition
to control by Bangkok. In office, he implemented a number of programs
that were favored by the large mass of rural Thai-Thai voters in the
northeast of the country. Thaksin became very popular with the poor
rural voters in the north and northeast, but he angered the wealthier,
better educated elite population in the southern areas around Bangkok.
When he was reelected in 2005, the army staged a bloodless coup that
overthrew Thaksin's government, and forced Thaksin into exile. There
were new elections in 2007, and a Thaksin's party easily won control
of the government, and named a Thaksin ally as prime minister.
The new prime minister, Samak Sundaravej took office in December 2007.
This is where everything turned to farce. Apparently Samak is also
quite a good amateur cook, and for many years he hosted a televised
cooking show. He kept on with the cooking show after he became Prime
Minister, causing a court to remove him from office, because the
cooking show represented a conflict of interest with his job as Prime
Minister.
So Samak Sundaravej was ousted because he had a cooking show, and the
parliament, still controlled by Thaksin's party, then named Somchai
Wongsawat, another Thaksin ally, as prime minister. That's when the
"yellow shirt" protests began.
It became clear to the élite in Bangkok that the indigenous Thai-Thai
were going to keep on winning, so the yellow-shirt Thai-Chinese held
massive protests in 2008, mostly peaceful, but shutting down the
entire city, including the airport. Samak Sundaravej was forced to
resign, and the army installed a Thai-Chinese prime minister, Abhisit
Vejjajiva.
****
**** Red shirt protests in 2010
****
At the beginning of April 2010, the "red shirt" protests began,
demanding that Abhisit Vejjajiva resign, followed by new elections.
Of course, new elections would mean a new red-shirt political victory.
Masses of protesters occupied Bangkok's high-class shopping district,
forcing stores to close, and leading to a state of emergency. Army
troops attempted to clear the protestors on April 10, but suffered a
humiliating defeat, with 25 people killed, and hundreds injured.
The protests finally ended in May when the Thai army ran tanks through
their barricades and assaulted them with live ammunition, and after
the most radical elements of the protestors retaliated by burning down
shopping centers and the stock exchange. The violence left civilians
on both sides extremely bitter.
So in 2011 there was another election. The party of Thaksin
Shinawatra's political party easily won the parliamentary election
decisively again, as was obvious that it would, and the parliament
selected a new prime minister -- Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of
Thaksin, who was still in exile in Dubai. And to add the comedy, she
said the following:
<QUOTE>I am ready to fight according to the rules and I ask
for the opportunity to prove myself. I ask for your trust as you
used to trust my brother. I will utilise my femininity to work
fully for our country."<END QUOTE>
Well, the misogynists in the Thai-Chinese élite somehow weren't
fully charmed by Yingluck's femininity.
****
**** Returning 'power to the people' in 2014
****
In December 2013, yellow shirt rioters were back in the street again,
with anti-government protests. About 30,000 "yellow shirt" rioters
occupied government buildings and hurled stones and petrol bombs at
police, who fired back tear gas. At least four people were killed and
dozens injured. The anti-government yellow shirt leader Suthep
Thaugsuban met with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and gave her a
48 hour ultimatum "to return power to the people."
Was Suthep calling for new elections? Obviously not, since that would
just mean another victory for the hated dark-skinned Thai-Thai
indigenous red shirt majority. It turned out that what he meant was
that he was demanding that Yingluck resign, and that a new "People's
Council" select the next prime minister. Presumably, the People's
Council would be packed with Thai-Chinese.
What the yellow-shirts were objecting to was a rice-subsidy scheme
that Yingluck began in 2011 that paid rice farmers above market rate
for their crop. This pleased the Thai-Thai rice farmers in the north
around Chiang Mai, but it cost the government $21 billion, and
infuriated the powerful élite Thai-Chinese opposition in Bangkok.
A month later, in January 2014, Yingluck offered to resign and call
for new elections, but the yellow shirt élite protesters forced the
new election to be called off because they knew that Yingluck's party
would win.
In Thailand, the Thai-Chinese elites are backed by the monarchy, the
army and the courts. So in May 2014, the courts ruled that Yingluck
and her government should be impeached because of the rice subsidy.
Then they used the courts to appoint the "People's Council" described
above.
However, General Prayuth Chan-ocha didn't wait that long. He seized
control of the government two days later, and announced on Thai
television:
<QUOTE>"In order for the situation to return to normal
quickly and for society to love and be at peace again ... and to
reform the political, economic and social structure, the military
needs to take control of power."<END QUOTE>
Love and peace - more comedy. In 2017, Yingluck was convicted of
corruption, but the army looked the other way when she fled the
country, fearing popular riots from her supporters. Yingluck is now
in exile with her brother Thaksin.
After the 2014 coup, Prayuth promised to hold elections in
early 2015, then in 2016, and then in November 2018, canceling
them each time. Finally he held a rigged election in March
2019, which he won.
That brings us to 2020, and new protests by the Thai-Thai red shirts.
Many of these protesters were young children when General Prayuth used
bullets and tanks to disperse and kill their parents and older
brothers and sisters during the red shirt protests in 2011.
The army is being criticized for using water cannons on the protesters
on Friday, since the water contained burning chemicals, and many of
the protesters were children.
****
**** Demands to reform Thailand's monarchy
****
The ruling élite face the continuing problem that 3/4 of Thailand's
population are the hated dark-skinned indigenous Thai-Thai red shirts,
and they will win any election in a democracy. The ruling élite may
have found a solution: Restore the monarchy so that the King is ruling
again, and there are no more elections. No more democracy.
The problem with this solution is that the current king is so
scandal-ridden and so unpopular that any solution like this would lead
to a further backlash among red shirts, and possibly even among yellow
shirts.
Thailand's previous king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, also known as Rama IX,
was born on December 5, 1927, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He was on
the throne in Thailand since 1946, and so until his death on October
13, 2016, he was ever-present as King of Thailand, and the only
monarch that almost every resident of Thailand had ever known.
Bhumibol had been a calming voice that had seen Thailand through
multiple national crises, including several coups and military
takeovers, and so he was highly revered, so much so that the country
has passed so-called "lèse-majesté" laws that make it a crime to even
criticize the monarchy.
Despite his being 88 years old, Bhumibol's death in 2016 still came as
a shock to the Thai people, probably most of all to the person next in
line for the throne, the highly unpopular 62-year-old Crown Prince
Maha Vajiralongkorn. Vajiralongkorn was an international playboy,
living mostly in Germany, who had been divorced four times, and who
had disowned his own children by one of the wives. So he didn't even
want to be king, but he reluctantly assumed the throne a year later,
under pressure from the army, and became King Rama X.
Vajiralongkorn's numerous scandals and his reported cruelty to his
wives and servants have made him a target of the protesters. However,
even a mild criticism can make someone liable for arrest under the
"lèse-majesté" laws. In fact, the army junta has made draconian use
of the lèse-majesté as a tool for jailing dissidents.
The protesters are demanding that the monarchy be reformed. They're
particularly critical of his vast wealth and his taking personal
control of $40 billion of Thailand's financial assets.
The élite have decided that they can no longer hold elections, since
the hated Thai-Thai red shirts will always win. Prayuth denies that
there are plans to replace the democracy with a new monarchy ruled by
Vajiralongkorn. However, Vajiralongkorn's act in taking control of
$40 billion of Thailand's assets leads many to believe that replacing
the democracy with a monarchy is just a step away.
****
**** Brief generational history of Thailand
****
Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra were born in Chiang Mai in northern
Thailand. Chiang Mai is the red shirt stronghold, and plays an
important part in Thailand's history.
Chiang Mai was built in 1296 to be the capital city of the Lanna
Kingdom (the kingdom of a million rice fields). The Lanna kingdom was
successfully invaded and incorporated into Burma as a vassal state in
1557. Over the next 200 years Chiang Mai fell at various times under
the rule of the strongest invader, be it Burma or Siam.
In 1774, Siam finally drove the Burmese out of the Lanna Kingdom. The
Lanna Kingdom eventually became part of Siam in 1892. The Lanna
Kingdom was gradually dissolved and condensed into an area centered
around Chiang Mai. 1932 the whole Chiang Mai area officially became a
province of Siam.
Thailand's King Rama had fought a generational crisis war in the early
1830s when he had invaded Laos and Cambodia, but ended up losing to a
Vietnamese army.
Siam's next generational crisis war occurred in what is now southern
Thailand. For centuries, Siam's kings had felt that the Muslims in
southern Siam were a major threat to the security of the country,
mainly because resistance and rebellion against Thai government rule
were so strong among the Muslim population, and in fact the southern
Muslims had revolted during the 1830s crisis war.
By the late 1800s this threat had been felt to be critical, and in
1902 King Rama V invaded and annexed the Malay kingdom of Patani,
consisting of the four provinces of Satun, Yala, Pattani and
Narathiwat. (Note: The kingdom is spelled "Patani," while the
province is spelled "Pattani.") In 1909, an Anglo-Siamese Agreement
established the present border between Thailand and Malaysia.
During the next few decades, Siam (which became Thailand in 1939) was
faced with the problem of trying to assimilate the southern Muslim
population into what is essentially a Buddhist country. During the
generational Awakening era that followed, the military coup of 1932
overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with
constitutional monarchy. This was a representative form of government
that promised a high degree of political participation of the
Malay-Muslims in the South. However, as World War II (an Awakening
era war for Thailand) approached, the country became more
Thai-nationalistic, and the country adopted a policy of forced
assimilation towards the Muslims, which had little success, as
resistance and rebellion have continued since then.
The 1930s also saw a large influx of migrants from China, coming to
the country to work. Over the decades, they were able to displace the
indigenous people in positions of power in government, and in control
of businesses. This formed an ethnic fault line between the
indigenous Thai-Thai majority and the elite Thai-Chinese minority.
Thailand's next generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing
fields" war, 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge
government, backed by China, killed up to 3 million people in a
massive genocide. The Cambodian war spilled over into Thailand in the
form of a communist rebellion that had begun in the 1960s. King
Bhumibol (Rama IX) became an essential figure in the fight against the
communists, although his role became more controversial in the savage
anti-leftist coup of 1976, in which dozens of students were brutally
killed by the security forces and royal-backed militias, and thousands
forced to flee to seek sanctuary with the Communist Party.
The Cambodian "killing fields" civil war took place on Thailand's
doorstep, though not on Thai soil. Still, it caused a split along the
Thai-Thai versus Thai-Chinese fault line that continues to the present
time. Today, Thailand is in a new generational Awakening/Unraveling
era, and we're seeing a repeat of what happened in the 1930s.
During the generational Awakening era of the 1930s, the military coup
of 1932 overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with
constitutional monarchy that gave some power to the southern Muslims,
only to have it taken away a few years later.
During the current era, the 1997 constitution guaranteed free
elections for everyone, including the indigenous Thai-Thai, and now
that's been taken away by a military junta.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Sources:
- Thai protest leaders play cat and mouse with police as thousands rally (Guardian, London, 18-Oct-2020)
- Bangkok Thailand / 'We are all leaders today': Arrests don't stop Thai protests (Reuters, 18-Oct-2020)
- Thailand’s celebs break silence on protests, demand changes (Manila Standard / AFP, 18-Oct-2020)
- Thailand's 'Hunger Games' crisis has its roots in dismal economics (Nikkei Asia, 18-Oct-2020)
- Bangkok Thailand / Protesters rally as BTS, MRT shut down (Bangkok Post, 17-Oct-2020)
- Bangkok protests: Thailand's ‘Tahrir Square’ moment (Free Press Journal, India, 17-Oct-2020)
- Thailand: Protesters take to Bangkok streets despite warning (Al-Jazeera, 17-Oct-2020)
- Thailand / Sign pointing to confrontation during student protests in Bangkok (En24 News, India, 17-Oct-2020)
- So who are these Thai students, and what are the protests about? (The Thaiger, 18-Oct-2020)
- Thai police fire water cannon at Bangkok protesters (Al-Jazeera, 16-Oct-2020)
- Thai protesters rally in Bangkok defying state of emergency (Al-Jazeera, 15-Oct-2020)
- Thailand Braces for Fresh Round of Pro-Democracy Protests (Diplomat, 13-Oct-2020)
- Maha Vajiralongkorn / A royal bubble bursts: Thailand’s king faces trouble on two continents (LA Times, 16-Oct-2020)
- Protests in Thailand are a 'double whammy' for the economy, which is reeling from Covid-19 (CNBC, 16-Oct-2020)
- Thailand latest: Protesters show up in droves despite rain (Nikkei Asia, 16-Oct-2020)
- Thailand / Water cannon used on protesters (Bangkok Post, 16-Oct-2020)
- Thai Protesters Defy New State of Emergency (Foreign Policy, 15-Oct-2020)
- red-white shirts / Progressive politics in Thailand’s polarised polity (Lowy Institute, 16-Oct-2020)
- King Maha Vajiralongkorn / Thailand’s king seeks to bring back absolute monarchy (Economist, 14-Oct-2020)
- 2010 Red Shirt rallies in Bangkok / Reds protest peacefully (Bangkok Post, 20-Sep-2010)
- Thailand / La Na / Lanna Kingdom - Chiang Mai - Short History (Visit Chiang Mai)
Related articles:
- Milk-Tea twitter war links Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines against China (08-May-2020)
- Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections (30-Oct-2018)
- Thailand's former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra flees to Dubai (26-Aug-2017)
- Thailand mourns as Massachusetts-born King Bhumibol Adulyadej dies (14-Oct-2016)
- Thailand shocked by 13 bombings in five southern provinces (13-Aug-2016)
- Turkish nationals and Chinese Uighurs suspected in Thailand bombing (03-Sep-2015)
- Thailand's army seizes power in major victory for 'yellow shirt' elites (23-May-2014)
- Ethnic tensions rise in Thailand as PM is forced to resign (10-May-2014)
- Thailand's elite minority seeks to shut Bangkok down (06-Jan-2014)
- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum (02-Dec-2013)
- Coordinated bombings in southern Thailand kill 14, injure hundreds (02-Apr-2012)
- Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra wins decisively (04-Jul-2011)
- Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes (01-Jul-2011)
- Thailand heads for a major election crisis (16-Jun-2011)
- Thailand election portends more ethnic clashes (26-May-2011)
- Thailand vs Cambodia border clash damages ancient Hindu temple (17-Feb-2011)
- Thailand lifts state of emergency, but clamps down in other ways (23-Dec-2010)
- Thailand chooses the path to civil war (08-Jul-2010)
- Les Miserables of Thailand at a turning point (24-May-2010)
- Thailand's Prime Minister says "no turning back" (16-May-2010)
- Thailand's army assaults Bangkok protestors (14-May-2010)
- Thailand's government retracts peace offer (13-May-2010)
- 29-Mar-10 News - Thailand's raucous red shirt protests lead to stalemate (29-Mar-2010)
- Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war (03-Dec-2008)
- Coordinated bombings across Bangkok cancel Thailand's New Year's Eve celebrations (31-Dec-2006)
- Terror grips Southeast Asia from Thailand to Australia (05-Oct-2005)
- Thailand bird flu emergence - tet holiday (21-Jan-2005)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Siam, Prayuth Chan-ocha,
Thai-Thai, red shirts, Thai-Chinese, yellow shirts,
Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra, Samak Sundaravej,
Somchai Wongsawat, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Suthep Thaugsuban,
Bhumibol Adulyadej, Rama IX, Maha Vajiralongkorn, Rama X,
lèse-majesté laws, Chiang Mai, Lanna Kingdom, Burma,
Kingdom of Patani, Satun, Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat,
China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Killing fields
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John J. Xenakis
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 10-19-2020
(10-18-2020, 07:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(10-18-2020, 06:48 PM)David Horn Wrote: OK, but so what? We decided to eliminate any potential "Marxist" government in the south, and guaranteed a bloody war as a result. That one's on Ike. If he had OK'd the election in '56, things would have been different ... but, of course, he didn't.
I'm no expert on Vietnam, but it seems what is missing here it that the alternative to a Marxist government was to leave the Catholic elite in charge, and they were the corrupt elites of the French in colonial times. The Marxists were linked with the Buddhist cause, the locals. In fact, it was more the common folk against the elites that was the real conflict, with the various sides using the east - west conflict to make it sort of a proxy war, except it was confused who was using who for what.
True to a great extent, though even the Catholic people of the nation were looking for autonomy. I don't think the French were held in high regard by anyone not needing them as political allies -- the elites, as you noted.
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-20-2020
** 20-Oct-2020 World View: Milk Tea Alliance
DaKardii Wrote:> Thank you for this insightful article. I knew the Thai military
> had a pro-China bias, but I didn't know the reason why.
> That being said, Thailand has very close ties with the US and is
> even considered to be a "major non-NATO ally." Do you believe the
> current ethnic tensions are strong enough for the Thai monarchy,
> military, and upper class to side with the CCP against the US in
> the event of war between the two superpowers?
Thank you very much for your contribution and for your support in the
past. It is greatly appreciated.
A few months ago, I wrote an article about the "Milk-Tea alliance"
involving mostly young people in Thailand, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, who
are strongly anti-CCP.
** 8-May-20 World View -- Milk-Tea twitter war links Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines against China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200508.htm#e200508
The anti-government, anti-CCP protesters in Thailand are young people
in the Thai-Thai red shirt ethnic group from northern Thailand, which
has fought numerous wars with Bangkok.
The anti-government, anti-CCP protesters in Hong Kong are young people
who speak Cantonese (as opposed to Mandarin), descended from southern
China, where there have been historic massive anti-Beijing rebellions.
** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e190622.htm#e190622
These groups in Thailand and Hong Kong are supporting each other in
anti-government protests, and are sharing techniques.
The protests in Taiwan are different in that they're pro-government
(since the government is anti-CCP) and they're not restricted to young
people.
The "Milk Tea Alliance" and the hashtag #MilkTeaAlliance are becoming
symbols in a growing pan-Asia anti-CCP youth movement that has the
potential to become divisive political issues in several countries.
And now a new development is that India's government is apparently
joining the alliance.
![[Image: thediplomat-2020-10-19-12.jpg]](https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sizes/medium/thediplomat-2020-10-19-12.jpg)
- A poster of the Taiwan-India Milk Tea Alliance that was put
up by the governing BJP party near China's embassy in New Delhi on Oct
10, resulting in the typically hysterical screams of Chinese fury
(Diplomat)
Anger over China's invasion of India's Galwan Valley in Ladakh several
months ago, and anger at China over inflicting the Wuhan Coronavirus,
apparently intentionally, on over 180 countries around the world, have
caused India's prime minister Narendra Modi to play the "Taiwan card"
by providing support to the anti-CCP Milk Tea alliance.
---- Sources:
-- Thailand and Hong Kong are brewing an anti-authoritarian
#MilkTeaAlliance
https://qz.com/1919253/what-is-the-milk-tea-alliance/
(Quartz, 19-Oct-2020)
-- The Taiwan–India ‘Milk Tea Alliance’
https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/the-taiwan-india-milk-tea-alliance/
(Diplomat, 20-Oct-2020)
-- International ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ Faces Down Authoritarian Govts
https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/thai/Milk-Tea-Alliance-10142020152640.html
(Benar News, 14-Oct-2020)
---- Related article:
** 19-Oct-20 World View -- Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e201019.htm#e201019
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-22-2020
** 21-Oct-2020 World View: Thailand and CCP
DaKardii Wrote:> But do you believe that the current Thai government (and the
> factions behind it) will side with the CCP in the upcoming war?
Gee, did I evade that question last time?
It's not clear what "side with the CCP" would even mean. We can
assume that Thailand will be pro-CCP based on the current government,
but we know that governments end, and that the course of great events
is determined not by the politicians, but by the generations of
people, the populations. So based on the fact that 3/4 of the
population are the Thai-Thai indigenous red shirt majority, I would
expect that Thailand would resist getting into fights on China's
behalf, especially since Thailand is currently not in a generational
Crisis era, but in a generational Unraveling era, when wars are
resisted.
So, first of all, Thailand will try to stay neutral. If they're
successful in that, then they'll stay out of the war entirely, just as
Switzerland did in WW II.
However, if Thailand is forced into war, it will most likely be with
its traditional enemies -- Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, and perhaps
Burma. In those cases, it's not clear which side China will be on, or
whether China will even care, given its wars with Japan and Taiwan.
Xi Jinping has vowed to recover all of China's sacred historical
territory (just like Hitler wanted Austria and Poland), and that may
result in Chinese troops fighting with or against Thai troops,
depending on whose territory China is trying to illegally annex.
So I guess what I'm saying is that I really don't know, and that it
depends on how events unfold. In the case of countries like Russia
and Iran, there are centuries of historic trends to look at, but you
don't have anything like that in the Southeast Asian countries, which
are a jumble of Chinese, Indian and Muslim influences that have been
pasteurized and homogenized in different countries to produce
indigenous fault lines that are years or decades old, but not
centuries or millennia old, and could change very quickly, if the
country faces an existential threat.