(03-12-2022, 04:01 PM)linus Wrote: I think this 4t (and maybe others too) is like the last 2t turned inside out, with the Nixon-Reagan majority collision in a slow death spiral, much as the New Deal majority coalition declined and fell in the late 1960s and 70s.

What are the hallmarks of a majority coalition in its latter days? A greater concern for speaking its truths (ie the "free speech" movement of today's GOP, and its preoccupation with "political correctness") than effectively governing, and addressing the problems of the day (back in the day it was inflation, crime, unemployment, and national security - today it is inequality, the high cost of health care, housing, and higher education, as well as now [and again] Russia, only this time with the GOP divided between Putin equivocators and extreme hawks). The rise of extremist groups, cults, and conspiracy theories that threaten civil society (back in the day it was the rise of the revolutionary left, following the Weatherman takeover of SDS, and the string of acronymical radical groups - the BLA, SLA, FALN - et al, and now it's the rise of far right groups, effectively merging with the GOP under Trump and now after him; then of course QAnon and all that toxic nonsense, some offshoots of which have dangerous cult-like qualities).

Provided we all don't end up vaporized in a third world war, I continue to think that despite whatever setbacks, here and abroad, the center-left will prevail and this time will reflect very, very poorly on the American right - with lasting consequences politically, and reputationally.

(03-13-2022, 09:56 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-12-2022, 04:01 PM)linus Wrote: I think this 4t (and maybe others too) is like the last 2t turned inside out, with the Nixon-Reagan majority collision in a slow death spiral, much as the New Deal majority coalition declined and fell in the late 1960s and 70s.

What are the hallmarks of a majority coalition in its latter days? A greater concern for speaking its truths (ie the "free speech" movement of today's GOP, and its preoccupation with "political correctness") than effectively governing, and addressing the problems of the day (back in the day it was inflation, crime, unemployment, and national security - today it is inequality, the high cost of health care, housing, and higher education, as well as now [and again] Russia, only this time with the GOP divided between Putin equivocators and extreme hawks). The rise of extremist groups, cults, and conspiracy theories that threaten civil society (back in the day it was the rise of the revolutionary left, following the Weatherman takeover of SDS, and the string of acronymical radical groups - the BLA, SLA, FALN - et al, and now it's the rise of far right groups, effectively merging with the GOP under Trump and now after him; then of course QAnon and all that toxic nonsense, some offshoots of which have dangerous cult-like qualities).

Provided we all don't end up vaporized in a third world war, I continue to think that despite whatever setbacks, here and abroad, the center-left will prevail and this time will reflect very, very poorly on the American right - with lasting consequences politically, and reputationally.

I have my doubts about short-term success, since we have not made any progress to speak about since the 4T began in 2008.  If the 4T runs for 20 years (unusually long for an activist turning), the amount of change needed to set a new paradigm to tear apart in the following swing-right better start soon ... and big.

It may be interesting to note that Ezra Kline wrote a column for the NY Times that noted the problem as liberal in origin, when liberal activists worked hard to hobble all levels of government that did more harm than good at the time.  Now, the tools they created are used to stop all progress in its tracks.  Now that's schadenfreude if I ever saw it.

(03-26-2022, 01:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The JFK and 9-11 theories, originally posed by the left and liberals like me, and also alleged to be part of these MIC lies, eventually led to wholesale distrust of government that, along with all the other problems and lies, have made it now impossible to function, and many people automatically assume some nefarious cabal is behind every unsavory event or trend. linus mentioned some of these. And the 2T and 3T new age and post-modernist trends also cast a lot of doubt on materialist science, and again that includes me, and its doubt is often well-deserved; but now we need some correction in the other direction, including more respect for objective truth. It is certainly at-least superior to mere speculation and unverified fantasy and "connecting the dots" to blame some imaginary cabal. And now the right-wing has taken over the conspiracy field, and it's now dangerous to our health (covid and anti-vax conspiracy theories), our democracy (Trump's rigged election and attempted coup and voter suppression) and our very climate (false charges that climate change science is a hoax to raise taxes).

(03-27-2022, 12:45 PM)Anthony Wrote: If we are in a 4T at all, then what's with all this 3T business like the "Don't Say Gay" bill in Florida, the shrill debate over whether transgenders should be allowed to play on girls' sports teams, putting bounties on the heads of would-be abortion-seekers, and so on?

About the only thing that's missing is another Scopes trial.

(03-26-2022, 06:37 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-26-2022, 01:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The JFK and 9-11 theories, originally posed by the left and liberals like me, and also alleged to be part of these MIC lies, eventually led to wholesale distrust of government that, along with all the other problems and lies, have made it now impossible to function, and many people automatically assume some nefarious cabal is behind every unsavory event or trend. linus mentioned some of these. And the 2T and 3T new age and post-modernist trends also cast a lot of doubt on materialist science, and again that includes me, and its doubt is often well-deserved; but now we need some correction in the other direction, including more respect for objective truth. It is certainly at-least superior to mere speculation and unverified fantasy and "connecting the dots" to blame some imaginary cabal. And now the right-wing has taken over the conspiracy field, and it's now dangerous to our health (covid and anti-vax conspiracy theories), our democracy (Trump's rigged election and attempted coup and voter suppression) and our very climate (false charges that climate change science is a hoax to raise taxes).

It's hard to be self-objective, and I'm in the same class to be honest about it.  The problem de jure is the depth of the opposing forces.  It's one thing for them to blather on with nonsense claims and quite another to be in a position to tilt the playing field so far and so deep that it's really hard to put up an opposition to that, to say nothing of wining the argument outright.  As dangerous as it surely is, we may not get that necessary paradigm shift that will allow a productive 1T.

I'm still in the 2T camp.  We're probably too far away from a real paradigm shift for one to occur this late in the 4T game. The Millies seem disinterested in making real change, just in avoiding the full force of the current corrupt paradigm.  That leaves it to the next Prophets, whoever they may be.  How they do what they do and what it will generate is highly unpredictable.  But we Boomers are the modern Transcendentals, and highly influential but only slightly inspirational.  Not many Xers or Millies see us as a model to emulate.  Let's hope the next Prophets do better.

(03-28-2022, 11:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-26-2022, 06:37 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-26-2022, 01:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The JFK and 9-11 theories, originally posed by the left and liberals like me, and also alleged to be part of these MIC lies, eventually led to wholesale distrust of government that, along with all the other problems and lies, have made it now impossible to function, and many people automatically assume some nefarious cabal is behind every unsavory event or trend. linus mentioned some of these. And the 2T and 3T new age and post-modernist trends also cast a lot of doubt on materialist science, and again that includes me, and its doubt is often well-deserved; but now we need some correction in the other direction, including more respect for objective truth. It is certainly at-least superior to mere speculation and unverified fantasy and "connecting the dots" to blame some imaginary cabal. And now the right-wing has taken over the conspiracy field, and it's now dangerous to our health (covid and anti-vax conspiracy theories), our democracy (Trump's rigged election and attempted coup and voter suppression) and our very climate (false charges that climate change science is a hoax to raise taxes).

It's hard to be self-objective, and I'm in the same class to be honest about it.  The problem de jure is the depth of the opposing forces.  It's one thing for them to blather on with nonsense claims and quite another to be in a position to tilt the playing field so far and so deep that it's really hard to put up an opposition to that, to say nothing of wining the argument outright.  As dangerous as it surely is, we may not get that necessary paradigm shift that will allow a productive 1T.

I'm still in the 2T camp.  We're probably too far away from a real paradigm shift for one to occur this late in the 4T game. The Millies seem disinterested in making real change, just in avoiding the full force of the current corrupt paradigm.  That leaves it to the next Prophets, whoever they may be.  How they do what they do and what it will generate is highly unpredictable.  But we Boomers are the modern Transcendentals, and highly influential but only slightly inspirational.  Not many Xers or Millies see us as a model to emulate.  Let's hope the next Prophets do better.

I'm still of a mind to remind you that prophet generations are victory children. I rather think that if we don't make at least some of the needed changes in this 4T, we won't have another 2T. 4Ts are not so much about paradigms, but making institutional change. Once a real 4T gets going, who knows what changes might come. Generations will live up to the need, once it can no longer be avoided.

The larger planetary being we are in offers clues, that our saeculum has a double rhythm, and we had not really come to grips with what changes were needed in the 1850s either. Neptune shows where the zeitgeist largely is by its sign. Neptune in Pisces then, as now, is too diffuse and subject to delusion to mobilize action. But once it gets into Aries in 2025-26, well, as they say, Katy bar the door. The civil war broke out, remember, on the very DAY that Neptune shifted into Aries.

(03-28-2022, 10:42 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(03-28-2022, 11:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-26-2022, 06:37 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-26-2022, 01:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The JFK and 9-11 theories, originally posed by the left and liberals like me, and also alleged to be part of these MIC lies, eventually led to wholesale distrust of government that, along with all the other problems and lies, have made it now impossible to function, and many people automatically assume some nefarious cabal is behind every unsavory event or trend. linus mentioned some of these. And the 2T and 3T new age and post-modernist trends also cast a lot of doubt on materialist science, and again that includes me, and its doubt is often well-deserved; but now we need some correction in the other direction, including more respect for objective truth. It is certainly at-least superior to mere speculation and unverified fantasy and "connecting the dots" to blame some imaginary cabal. And now the right-wing has taken over the conspiracy field, and it's now dangerous to our health (covid and anti-vax conspiracy theories), our democracy (Trump's rigged election and attempted coup and voter suppression) and our very climate (false charges that climate change science is a hoax to raise taxes).

It's hard to be self-objective, and I'm in the same class to be honest about it.  The problem de jure is the depth of the opposing forces.  It's one thing for them to blather on with nonsense claims and quite another to be in a position to tilt the playing field so far and so deep that it's really hard to put up an opposition to that, to say nothing of wining the argument outright.  As dangerous as it surely is, we may not get that necessary paradigm shift that will allow a productive 1T.

I'm still in the 2T camp.  We're probably too far away from a real paradigm shift for one to occur this late in the 4T game. The Millies seem disinterested in making real change, just in avoiding the full force of the current corrupt paradigm.  That leaves it to the next Prophets, whoever they may be.  How they do what they do and what it will generate is highly unpredictable.  But we Boomers are the modern Transcendentals, and highly influential but only slightly inspirational.  Not many Xers or Millies see us as a model to emulate.  Let's hope the next Prophets do better.

I'm still of a mind to remind you that prophet generations are victory children. I rather think that if we don't make at least some of the needed changes in this 4T, we won't have another 2T. 4Ts are not so much about paradigms, but making institutional change. Once a real 4T gets going, who knows what changes might come. Generations will live up to the need, once it can no longer be avoided.

The larger planetary being we are in offers clues, that our saeculum has a double rhythm, and we had not really come to grips with what changes were needed in the 1850s either. Neptune shows where the zeitgeist largely is by its sign. Neptune in Pisces then, as now, is too diffuse and subject to delusion to mobilize action. But once it gets into Aries in 2025-26, well, as they say, Katy bar the door. The civil war broke out, remember, on the very DAY that Neptune shifted into Aries.

And what might that day of projected judgment be this time around? I would hate to think that Joe Biden might be our current era’s James Buchanan.

(03-28-2022, 11:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm still of a mind to remind you that prophet generations are victory children. I rather think that if we don't make at least some of the needed changes in this 4T, we won't have another 2T. 4Ts are not so much about paradigms, but making institutional change. Once a real 4T gets going, who knows what changes might come. Generations will live up to the need, once it can no longer be avoided.

(03-29-2022, 03:45 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-28-2022, 11:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm still of a mind to remind you that prophet generations are victory children. I rather think that if we don't make at least some of the needed changes in this 4T, we won't have another 2T. 4Ts are not so much about paradigms, but making institutional change. Once a real 4T gets going, who knows what changes might come. Generations will live up to the need, once it can no longer be avoided.

Change can be many things. It's hard to say that a "failed" 4T is really a failure, until it really is.  There's a lot of dead wood that needs to burn, and that may be the change we get this time.

Quote:We all have been selected from city and from farm
They asked us lots of questions, they jabbed us in the arm
We stood there at attention, our faces turning red
The sergeant looked us over and this is what he said:

[Refrain:]
This is the Army, Mister Jones
No private rooms or telephones
You had your breakfast in bed before
But you won't have it there any more

This is the Army, Mister Green
We like the barracks nice and clean
You had a housemaid to clean your floor
But she won't help you out any more

Do what the buglers command
They're in the Army and not in a band

This is the Army, Mister Brown
You and your baby went to town
She had you worried but this is war
And she won't worry you anymore

[Alternate verse from sheet music:]
A bunch of frightened rookies were list'ning filled with aweo
They listened while a sergeant was laying down the law
They stood there at attention, their faces turning red
The sergeant looked them over and this is what he said:

(03-29-2022, 06:22 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(03-29-2022, 03:45 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-28-2022, 11:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm still of a mind to remind you that prophet generations are victory children. I rather think that if we don't make at least some of the needed changes in this 4T, we won't have another 2T. 4Ts are not so much about paradigms, but making institutional change. Once a real 4T gets going, who knows what changes might come. Generations will live up to the need, once it can no longer be avoided.

Change can be many things. It's hard to say that a "failed" 4T is really a failure, until it really is.  There's a lot of dead wood that needs to burn, and that may be the change we get this time.

Bingo!
One of the hallmarks of a Crisis Era is that people are obliged to give up some bad habits, and even some usually-harmless indulgences, for "the duration".
(lyrics by Irving Berlin):

Quote:We all have been selected from city and from farm
They asked us lots of questions, they jabbed us in the arm
We stood there at attention, our faces turning red
The sergeant looked us over and this is what he said:

[Refrain:]
This is the Army, Mister Jones
No private rooms or telephones
You had your breakfast in bed before
But you won't have it there any more

This is the Army, Mister Green
We like the barracks nice and clean
You had a housemaid to clean your floor
But she won't help you out any more

Do what the buglers command
They're in the Army and not in a band

This is the Army, Mister Brown
You and your baby went to town
She had you worried but this is war
And she won't worry you anymore

[Alternate verse from sheet music:]
A bunch of frightened rookies were list'ning filled with aweo
They listened while a sergeant was laying down the law
They stood there at attention, their faces turning red
The sergeant looked them over and this is what he said:

When part of the objective of "the Duration" is to be able to enjoy the witty songs of Irving Berlin instead of enduring such vile bilge as the Horst-Wessel-Lied, people are able to make some sacrifices.

(03-29-2022, 09:57 PM)echnut79 Wrote:

(03-29-2022, 06:22 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(03-29-2022, 03:45 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-28-2022, 11:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm still of a mind to remind you that prophet generations are victory children. I rather think that if we don't make at least some of the needed changes in this 4T, we won't have another 2T. 4Ts are not so much about paradigms, but making institutional change. Once a real 4T gets going, who knows what changes might come. Generations will live up to the need, once it can no longer be avoided.

Change can be many things. It's hard to say that a "failed" 4T is really a failure, until it really is.  There's a lot of dead wood that needs to burn, and that may be the change we get this time.

Bingo!
One of the hallmarks of a Crisis Era is that people are obliged to give up some bad habits, and even some usually-harmless indulgences, for "the duration".
(lyrics by Irving Berlin):

Quote:We all have been selected from city and from farm
They asked us lots of questions, they jabbed us in the arm
We stood there at attention, our faces turning red
The sergeant looked us over and this is what he said:

[Refrain:]
This is the Army, Mister Jones
No private rooms or telephones
You had your breakfast in bed before
But you won't have it there any more

This is the Army, Mister Green
We like the barracks nice and clean
You had a housemaid to clean your floor
But she won't help you out any more

Do what the buglers command
They're in the Army and not in a band

This is the Army, Mister Brown
You and your baby went to town
She had you worried but this is war
And she won't worry you anymore

[Alternate verse from sheet music:]
A bunch of frightened rookies were list'ning filled with aweo
They listened while a sergeant was laying down the law
They stood there at attention, their faces turning red
The sergeant looked them over and this is what he said:

When part of the objective of "the Duration" is to be able to enjoy the witty songs of Irving Berlin instead of enduring such vile bilge as the Horst-Wessel-Lied, people are able to make some sacrifices.

First, hasn’t plenty of dead wood already burned over the past few decades. Word processors and the Internet made typewriters obsolete, just one example among many.

Quote:What we have had since the postwar years is the nearly endless March of ever greater convenience, with each generation demanding more convenience than the previous one enjoyed. A prime current example is how you can order food and many other things via your smartphone and either pick it up ready to go or have it delivered to your door. Of course there have been subtractions such as the vast decline in social capital. Our fetish for ever increasing is most likely one of the biggest reasons that we lag in combating global warming and climate change. If we don’t take steps to reduce auto dependency the congestion will still be there. We simply can’t continue to build our way out of congestion forever. The pandemic created forced sacrifice of sorts but actually enhanced the convenience fetish per more delivery of food and other household items.

Quote:Perhaps a supreme irony is that the elder Boomers who spent much of their youth in the sign of the dreamer and the mystic May now feel the need to enforce a level of seriousness on those below them vastly different from the way they governed their own youth. Yet one segment of their youthful idealism may indeed be what’s needed now. And that is that they may be called to provide emotional support to those they love and also to those they may have not been so friendly to in the past. Being a present and compassionate listener is healing for all.

(03-28-2022, 11:36 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-27-2022, 12:45 PM)Anthony Wrote: If we are in a 4T at all, then what's with all this 3T business like the "Don't Say Gay" bill in Florida, the shrill debate over whether transgenders should be allowed to play on girls' sports teams, putting bounties on the heads of would-be abortion-seekers, and so on?

About the only thing that's missing is another Scopes trial.

You've got a good question there.

I guess the only answer it that this 4T is a cold civil war that might still get hot. And the fault lines of our national division are still largely cultural. But that division IS our 4T.

Maybe this explains it.

(03-30-2022, 01:44 PM)Anthony Wrote:

(03-28-2022, 11:36 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-27-2022, 12:45 PM)Anthony Wrote: If we are in a 4T at all, then what's with all this 3T business like the "Don't Say Gay" bill in Florida, the shrill debate over whether transgenders should be allowed to play on girls' sports teams, putting bounties on the heads of would-be abortion-seekers, and so on?

About the only thing that's missing is another Scopes trial.

You've got a good question there.

I guess the only answer is that this 4T is a cold civil war that might still get hot. And the fault lines of our national division are still largely cultural. But that division IS our 4T.

Maybe this explains it.

But once a real 4T sets in, the Culture Wars end, because by then one faction of Prophets/Idealists will have triumphed over the other or others - and that has clearly not happened yet.

(03-29-2022, 03:45 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-28-2022, 11:43 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I'm still of a mind to remind you that prophet generations are victory children. I rather think that if we don't make at least some of the needed changes in this 4T, we won't have another 2T. 4Ts are not so much about paradigms, but making institutional change. Once a real 4T gets going, who knows what changes might come. Generations will live up to the need, once it can no longer be avoided.

Change can be many things. It's hard to say that a "failed" 4T is really a failure, until it really is.  There's a lot of dead wood that needs to burn, and that may be the change we get this time.

(03-30-2022, 02:43 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2022, 03:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: Change can be many things. It's hard to say that a "failed" 4T is really a failure, until it really is.  There's a lot of dead wood that needs to burn, and that may be the change we get this time.

We'll know whether our current 4T is a failure when we know whether the blue side or the red side won. If the red side wins, our 4T is a failure and the saeculum game is over. We are toast, period and end of story. And remember EVERY 4T is such an existential threat. If the progressive side had not won previous 4Ts, our republic and the British parliamentary democracy too would not exist today. This time, it is worse. If the blue side does not win this decade, our entire world civilization and all life will no longer exist relatively soon.

Eric Wrote:Breakdown and death will be the ongoing and irreversible nature of a never-ending 1T. Please keep that in mind. Climate change is the existential threat, and the red side perpetuates and accelerates it, and this will not change. And already is it being ignored again by Democrats too! We have only THIS DECADE to reverse it. Pay attention to the UN reports! Our 4T can still be a success enough to forestall the disaster, but time is running out.

(03-31-2022, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-30-2022, 02:43 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2022, 03:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: Change can be many things. It's hard to say that a "failed" 4T is really a failure, until it really is.  There's a lot of dead wood that needs to burn, and that may be the change we get this time.

We'll know whether our current 4T is a failure when we know whether the blue side or the red side won. If the red side wins, our 4T is a failure and the saeculum game is over. We are toast, period and end of story. And remember EVERY 4T is such an existential threat. If the progressive side had not won previous 4Ts, our republic and the British parliamentary democracy too would not exist today. This time, it is worse. If the blue side does not win this decade, our entire world civilization and all life will no longer exist relatively soon.

I'm less pessimistic about a failed 4T than you are.  Yes, failure will have a steep price, but much of what's wrong and needs correction is actually baked into our history and our story about ourselves.  It's been defeated in the past, yet if returns.  It may be time to let if run its course and prove to everyone how faulty the macho, chest-thumping, island-of-one model really is.  I won't claim it will be an easy lesson, nor will it be without serious pain, but it may be necessary at this juncture ... or not.  We'll see.

Eric Wrote:Breakdown and death will be the ongoing and irreversible nature of a never-ending 1T. Please keep that in mind. Climate change is the existential threat, and the red side perpetuates and accelerates it, and this will not change. And already is it being ignored again by Democrats too! We have only THIS DECADE to reverse it. Pay attention to the UN reports! Our 4T can still be a success enough to forestall the disaster, but time is running out.

Assuming failure, I doubt we'll move to a flat, unending sameness.  It would take an entire saeculum of sameness to make it permanent. I suspect that the next 2T will bring all the failure to the forefront, and, perhaps, kill it for a long time if not for good.

(03-31-2022, 02:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: Assuming failure, I doubt we'll move to a flat, unending sameness.  It would take an entire saeculum of sameness to make it permanent. I suspect that the next 2T will bring all the failure to the forefront, and, perhaps, kill it for a long time if not for good.

There is NO 2T without a successful 4T before it.