Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Turnings (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-21.html) +--- Thread: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? (/thread-19829.html) |
RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - David Horn - 02-09-2022 (02-08-2022, 05:48 PM)Mikebert Wrote: ... What I am getting at is for all previous 4Ts by this far past the trigger most of the crisis has already happened. This time no action has happened on the problems we faced in 2000 are all still with us. We were polarized and unable to act when Clinton was president, and we still are. The showdown between the two sides that resolved this problem in the past 4Ts has not happened. It has been delayed. Every time a potential crisis shows up: 911, 2008 panic, March 2020 crash, Jan 6 uprising elites find a way to paper over it and prevent any resolution from happening. These delaying actions, or kicking the can down the road, is the hallmark of the 3T. Examples from the 1990's include the Gulf War than wasn't ended (the war continued with Iraq invasion in 2013 and the 2014 ISIS war). Financial bubbles such as the one in 2000 when I first came to T4T are still with us 22 years later. Does anyone *really* think that throwing trillions of dollars of QE and deficit spending into financial markets won't eventually lead to currency debauchment? Does anyone think the growing divide between Red and Blue America can be bridged by speeches from a somnolent Joe Biden or a mendacious Trumpian figure? Agreed, it's likely that our knowledge of the cycle mated with a widely shared belief in expertise (especially true of the Democrats) has led us here. What's less certain is the ability to forestall actions indefinitely. As a society, we're already fragmented and it's getting worse, so societal failure can't be totally discounted. If so, what then? The degree of shared trust can't get much lower, but we're still being somewhat cooperative with the PTB. The Right is already in full retreat from that commitment, and the Left isn't far behind. Anarchy and chaos in a nation with nuclear weapons and a military drawn heavily from one side doesn't bode well. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - pbrower2a - 02-09-2022 I see some 3T tendencies being squeezed out while some 1T tendencies (solutions?) are getting try-outs. So you have this kid in the minors and at age 20 in AA ball he has this record BA .318 HR 22 RBI 87 BB 60 and the fellow playing out the string at age 34 is doing this BA .252 HR 16 RBI 61 BB 42 OK, the fellow in AA ball has yet to prove himself in the majors... but he is good enough to play regularly in the majors now and is likely to develop some (he is five years away from his peak years). OK, how else are you going to find out? All major-league players are in decline by age 34, and a .252 hitter is on the way to be unable to hold onto a major-league job. I'm going to work the kid into the majors if I can. The older guy might be trade bait if some other team needs a platoon player to fill in (he might be hitting .280 against lefties with above-average power) or someone is desperate to fill in for someone who gets injured. If the kid hits like this BA .273 HR 20 RBI 79 BB 47 he is better than what you already have, and the kid has potential to be a star. Maybe he can get some seasoning -- in the majors. He might be a .300 hitter with 35 HR in due course. Older players with mediocre results get squeezed out of regular roles in the majors all the time if they are not given unconditional releases. We're going to see some bad habits that have gotten stale face increasing disparagement and deprecation and we are going to seek virtues. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - JasonBlack - 02-12-2022 The main indicators that we are in a 4th turning are 1) Elevated sense of conscious fear rather than distraction/celebrity bread and circuses (MeToo marked a nice metaphorical death thereof, but it was on the decline before that). 2) Everyone is highly political because you have to be, and keeping up with current events feels more like self-preservation that partisanism. 3) Massive extensions of government power, combined with people's greater willingness to comply therewith. 4) Almost everyone knows that things are going to get much worse before they get better, with many fretting about the end of society as we know it. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - David Horn - 02-13-2022 (02-12-2022, 11:40 PM)JasonBlack Wrote: The main indicators that we are in a 4th turning are I don't see anything even vaguely similar to your item 3. Government reach has been declining for decades due primarily to a well thought-out campaign against anything that impedes the full exercise of private power. In short, the government has been neutered, and nothing gets resolved as long as that continues. The 1950s may have been a bit stifling, but things actually worked. That started to decline in the mid-60s and went into full retreat in the early 80s. Now, we're stuck with a vulture model, where the haves get to take and we get to cheer them on. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - Tim Randal Walker - 02-13-2022 Could it be that things still seem 3T-ish because, so far, this has been an unusually mild 4T? Indeed, it seems like Covid finally pushed us into a definite Crisis mood, but just barely. Our theorizing has been based on severe Crises, which most 4Ts appear to be. There have been a few threads in which 4Ts were listed for various countries, and the majority were definitely severe, most of which had full blown Crisis wars. Only a handful of relatively mild 4Ts were listed. Consider the seasonal metaphor.... S & H suggested that winter might be relatively mild, and perhaps brief. We seem to be (so far) in a quite mild 4T, but things seem to be dragging along at a slow pace. Instead of a metaphorical blizzard, we are having snow flurries, but over an extended period of time. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - Eric the Green - 02-13-2022 (02-13-2022, 06:59 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Could it be that things still seem 3T-ish because, so far, this has been an unusually mild 4T? Indeed, it seems like Covid finally pushed us into a definite Crisis mood, but just barely. Maybe, although the flurries are quite-literally getting more and more severe each year, and those not immediately affected by all the fires, floods, storms and droughts should pay attention to those who are affected, and all should realize that this is indeed a dangerous crisis, probably the worst one ever. The seasonal metaphor is literal this time, as I always said it would be here on the 4T forums. But some people still can't see it. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - Eric the Green - 02-13-2022 (02-12-2022, 11:40 PM)JasonBlack Wrote: The main indicators that we are in a 4th turning are It's a good summary, although, as David implies, we have not fully realized or acted upon the crying need for #3. But the other 3 factors are kicking in more each year since 2008, and #3 is increasing at a snail's pace. Regarding #3 though, in the civil war seaculum Dixie could not be described as willing to comply with the government power they seceded from, and since our 4T is the so-far cold civil war, the return of two saecula ago in the double rhythm, one should not wonder that today's version of Dixie is not much better than the first version. Today's confederates even wave the same flag and loudly scream when statues to its heroes are torn down. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - JasonBlack - 02-14-2022 (02-13-2022, 10:36 AM)David Horn Wrote: I don't see anything even vaguely similar to your item 3. Government reach has been declining for decades due primarily to a well thought-out campaign against anything that impedes the full exercise of private power. In short, the government has been neutered, and nothing gets resolved as long as that continues. You mean like vaccine passports, forced shut downs, police arresting people because they had gatherings in their own homes of over 10 people? It's true, most of this has been on the state rather than federal level, but the extension of government powers into said domains hasn't exactly been subtle. Once we get out of the country, it gets even worse. France has gone police state and Australia has gone straight up Orwellian (forcing people to verify their location with face pics at random intervals, armed police patrolling residential neighborhood streets, helicopters being sent out to find people). RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - JasonBlack - 02-14-2022 (02-13-2022, 10:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Today's confederates even wave the same flag and loudly scream when statues to its heroes are torn down. Don't get me wrong, they really need to chill with that, but....just how many of those are there? Enough for an army? Anyone competent enough to run a nation even if they did win? At worst, we're talking petty terrorism at the local level in areas which they are concentrated. Enough to actually pose a military threat and throw us into a legitimate civil war....no, not a chance. There are more self-styled communists in the United States than their are white nationalists. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - David Horn - 02-14-2022 (02-14-2022, 12:50 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-13-2022, 10:36 AM)David Horn Wrote: I don't see anything even vaguely similar to your item 3. Government reach has been declining for decades due primarily to a well thought-out campaign against anything that impedes the full exercise of private power. In short, the government has been neutered, and nothing gets resolved as long as that continues. Vaccine Passports have happened outside the US, but only a very few states have attempted anything similar. I personally favor that approach, but its water under the bridge at this point. Forcing behavior on the unwilling is part of what government does. Sorry, you can't just rob this store -- you're getting arrested. Vaccinating your children before they attend school is another example, and one followed everywhere for a long time. These are fully rational responses to irrational provocations. The blind freedom to do as one pleases only works when those freedoms are self-regulated. We're way past that now. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - pbrower2a - 02-14-2022 (02-14-2022, 10:53 AM)David Horn Wrote:(02-14-2022, 12:50 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-13-2022, 10:36 AM)David Horn Wrote: I don't see anything even vaguely similar to your item 3. Government reach has been declining for decades due primarily to a well thought-out campaign against anything that impedes the full exercise of private power. In short, the government has been neutered, and nothing gets resolved as long as that continues. We are likely to end up with something that few of us ever expected: internal passports.Those could include data useful for medical purposes such as blood type, ongoing prescriptions, and allergy warnings. Such could save lives and some legal trouble: diabetic comas look much like drunkenness but are very different in treatment both medical and legal. Whether one has had the appropriate inoculations, as for COVID-19, will be there. So might educational achievement. Such a passport could connect to welfare services and rights of the disabled. People will accept these if they make life easier. On the other hand we have the possible retort: what could be wrong? I can imagine the potential abuses. Work history, criminal records, driving records, religion (in case you are in the worst possible situation you may or may not want Catholic last rites), voting behavior, ethnic origin, credit history, outstanding debts... it could get ugly. It is a great myth that Big Business stands for individual freedom; it believes in such for the well connected, but not for the common man whose employment, spending habits, and affiliations it would like to control.Just as the totalitarian Soviet Union had its ideal of the New Soviet Man and China has its social credit system, I can easily imagine our plutocratic-bureaucratic order might have its own ideal in the Perfect Servant, someone whose personal life is objectively miserable or full of self-destructive behavior yet who puts on the big, bright Happy to Serve You smile despite it all. I can imagine that in the wake of some economic downturn that Big Business will seek to direct consumer spending so that it serves overall prosperity. Note well that gambling and marijuana are now legal; when something gets profitable and economically controllable, Big Business wants it legalized. So it will be with prostitution, which will be marketed just as efficiently under some corporate label. You may personally despise gambling (I think it is for fools), marijuana (I don't trust it), or prostitution (would you want your precious daughter leasing her body to complete strangers for their transitory bliss)... yet I can imagine a system that controls people by dictating their behavior as consumers mandating that the participate in lucrative activities such as gambling, recreational marijuana (the stuff is expensive), or prostitution. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - JasonBlack - 02-14-2022 (02-14-2022, 10:53 AM)David Horn Wrote:(02-14-2022, 12:50 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-13-2022, 10:36 AM)David Horn Wrote: I don't see anything even vaguely similar to your item 3. Government reach has been declining for decades due primarily to a well thought-out campaign against anything that impedes the full exercise of private power. In short, the government has been neutered, and nothing gets resolved as long as that continues. Comparing mandates not to rob people to mandates to close down your business because of lockdowns is an absurd false equivalence. Personally I'm not concerned about most of the mask stuff (you just...put on a mask and do what you were doing anyway), but the forced closure of business (except corporations....) and frequent use of surveillance by governments across the world....no. The Constitution does not have exception clauses for crises, and this is for good reason, because those are precisely the times it's needed most (for example, the Bill of Rights in particular was created largely to protect unpopular people, such as those with controversial views, potential criminals, people who challenge government actions, etc). RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - David Horn - 02-15-2022 (02-14-2022, 09:06 PM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-14-2022, 10:53 AM)David Horn Wrote: Vaccine Passports have happened outside the US, but only a very few states have attempted anything similar. I personally favor that approach, but its water under the bridge at this point. Forcing behavior on the unwilling is part of what government does. Sorry, you can't just rob this store -- you're getting arrested. Vaccinating your children before they attend school is another example, and one followed everywhere for a long time. These are fully rational responses to irrational provocations. The blind freedom to do as one pleases only works when those freedoms are self-regulated. We're way past that now. Starting with your first point:
RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - Eric the Green - 02-15-2022 (02-14-2022, 01:26 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-13-2022, 10:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Today's confederates even wave the same flag and loudly scream when statues to its heroes are torn down. Well, I hope you are right, but there's a lot of fanatical confederates and trumpists out there and they are asking "when do we take out the guns." I expect that when the dust settles you'll be right, and I have said the same. Your last sentence seems totally off the wall though. There are virtually no communists in the USA, self-styled or otherwise, while white nationalism seems to be embraced by up to 40% of the USA or even more. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - Eric the Green - 02-15-2022 (02-14-2022, 09:06 PM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-14-2022, 10:53 AM)David Horn Wrote:(02-14-2022, 12:50 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-13-2022, 10:36 AM)David Horn Wrote: I don't see anything even vaguely similar to your item 3. Government reach has been declining for decades due primarily to a well thought-out campaign against anything that impedes the full exercise of private power. In short, the government has been neutered, and nothing gets resolved as long as that continues. The required lockdowns were needed until vaccines came along, and they ended too soon because Trump believed that covid would just go away and that closing the economy would hurt his election chances. Actually, his premature closings and his hesitant rollout of vaccines are what hurt his election chances. We can't go back to lockdowns in the USA now, but we need vaccine mandates because the largely right-wing delusional antivax creeps are keeping the pandemic going with new variants emerging, along with the greedy drug companies themselves who refuse to share thair vaccine patents with the world. Being a libertarian country that gives freedom to "enterprise," we in the USA are not doing these things, so I expect the pandemic to return and just go on and on. Meanwhile, France and some other countries still have horrific covid rates and so it seems they have to still do lockdowns. What we have endemic now across the world is people rising up for constitutional freedoms and being jailed and shot down by tyrants who have a monopoly of weapons. The rise of tyranny across the world has nothing to do with the pandemic. It is an epidemic of tyranny in much of the world where leaders think themselves entitled to power and that obedience to the brutal ruler is the correct model for life and state. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - JasonBlack - 03-18-2022 (02-15-2022, 12:18 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The required lockdowns were needed until vaccines came alongAccording to what/whom? It would be one thing if the researchers actually came to a consistent conclusion and stuck with their guns. The problem is that we've taken a concept that is generally good (we should trust science and scientists more often than not), and taken it to sheep-like levels of giving unquestioning obedience with next to no attempt at justification. More importantly, we aren't even being "scientific" correctly. Being scientific means you conduct multiple studies, and if you keep getting different results depending on the study, you acknowledge a lack of replicability, and by extension, an admission that you aren't close to getting a real answer, and that your suggestions should be taken with a grain of salt. Furthermore...what "study" was even done on the efficacy of lockdowns to begin with? Sounds like a solution they just pulled out of their behind and tacked an official "scientific" seal of approval on. Quote:and they ended too soon because Trump believed that covid would just go away and that closing the economy would hurt his election chances. Actually, his premature closings and his hesitant rollout of vaccines are what hurt his election chances. We can't go back to lockdowns in the USA now, but we need vaccine mandates because the largely right-wing delusional antivax creeps are keeping the pandemic going with new variants emerging, along with the greedy drug companies themselves who refuse to share thair vaccine patents with the world. Being a libertarian country that gives freedom to "enterprise," we in the USA are not doing these things, so I expect the pandemic to return and just go on and on.Isn't that just evidence that the vaccines have limited efficacy and the lockdowns have almost none? The point here isn't that you shouldn't get the vaccine, but that such justifications leave for an endless, non-falsifiable justification to move the goalpost indefinitely. Quote:The rise of tyranny across the world has nothing to do with the pandemic. It is an epidemic of tyranny in much of the world where leaders think themselves entitled to power and that obedience to the brutal ruler is the correct model for life and state.that's...exactly what I've been trying to say. Quote:along with the greedy drug companies themselves who refuse to share thair vaccine patents with the world.and you don't see proposing forced injection of products made by clearly untrustworthy companies as a red flag? RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - JasonBlack - 03-18-2022 (02-15-2022, 12:06 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-14-2022, 01:26 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-13-2022, 10:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Today's confederates even wave the same flag and loudly scream when statues to its heroes are torn down. eh...Obama's highest approval rating was just under 68%, so that would have required every non-racist at the time and a considerable number of actual racists to approve of him. Keep in mind that 40% of America is like 3/5 of the US white population. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - Eric the Green - 03-20-2022 (03-18-2022, 09:44 PM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-15-2022, 12:06 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-14-2022, 01:26 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(02-13-2022, 10:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Today's confederates even wave the same flag and loudly scream when statues to its heroes are torn down. So then why are 43% of Americans supporting a white nationalist? You tell me. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - beechnut79 - 03-20-2022 The posting here referencing tyranny and dictators appears to prove that we have not really learned a lot from the scourge of Hitler, Stalin, et all a saeculum ago. At the time of the exposing of the Holocaust atrocities, the words "Never again" became the mantra of the time. And our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan similarly means that we didn't really learn from the Vietnam debacle, did we? The societal malaise that has been with us seemingly for a decade or more has created a world where far too often emotions may get the best of you or someone else with harsh words being spoken. And it seems we often take slights, whether perceived or actual, to a whole other level. The movement to change the names of Native American referenced sports teams being a prime example. And so many words or slangs that long ago became a part of our lexicon are now so taboo as to create severe consequences if uttered. Which brings me to the point that, an observation I have made before is to be repeated again here, and that is that we have become too sensitive and too insensitive at the same time. Maybe the air has to be cleared so we can all understand from where the other person or group is coming. And while any of us could want some quiet time to reflect. And yet the nature of today's economy and society usually don't allow for such to take place. This is part of the gospel that was preached back in the free love induced hippie era, which was almost completely eschewed on these same people reached midlife. The New Age philosophy which came into being around that time was supposed to manifest that we feel and connect with our higher selves and know that home is always within you. Again, this is today a luxury most of us can no longer afford, if indeed we ever could. When one has to pay around $5 a gallon for gasoline, and food has gone way up as well, such as me having to pay around $16 for just a beef sandwich and onion rings a few days ago. Sure you get the picture here. RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? - JasonBlack - 03-20-2022 (03-20-2022, 02:41 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: So then why are 43% of Americans supporting a white nationalist? You tell me.They don't. Trump isn't a white nationalist (though he's willing to lead them on so that they vote for him, just like Obama was willing to let Black Panthers vote for him) |