+- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum)
+-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html)
+--- Forum: The Future (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-10.html)
+--- Thread: [USA] What do you think the political landscape will look like in the new saeculum? (/thread-20114.html)
Pages:
1
2
RE: [USA] What do you think the political landscape will look like in the new saeculum? - JasonBlack - 12-16-2022
(12-16-2022, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Trump regime was worse than many Latin American regimes.This is simply melodramatic. Something I wouldn't say even about the worst of US presidents. If he were worse than any of them, you would not have gotten away saying anything like this for the last 6 years. This is the kind of thing that causes independents to dismiss anti-Trump rhetoric as crying wolf.
RE: [USA] What do you think the political landscape will look like in the new saeculum? - pbrower2a - 12-16-2022
(12-15-2022, 02:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(12-15-2022, 12:26 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(12-14-2022, 05:26 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The American political system gives disproportionate power to the super-wealthy who can supply the Dark Money to political aspirants who, like many of the super-wealthy, believe that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as such serves the power, indulgence, and greed of elites who know no limits for these. Dark Money supports politics of fear and loathing, reflecting to the extent that people can be manipulated, that those who own the gold are the only ones who can competently or rightly rule. This can change. Those super-wealthy are disproportionately white, and those who are most amenable to such an appeal are undereducated white people under economic and cultural stress.
Generation X acquiesced to neoliberal politics and economics in return for promises of opportunity but often hated their jobs and the abysmal pay that came with them. They griped to their Millennial kids who learned their economics as griping about economic inequity and an increasingly-rigid class structure.
It would be nice if we had more right wingers around wanting to do something about this. Whether we like it or not, some sort of wrecking ball is going to smash into the bureaucratic establishment, and a right wing "drain the swamp" agenda is much more favorable to a lefty swing toward something more restrictive or South America-esque.
As to your previous comment about the possibility of young idealists just starting to be born, I don't see that happening yet. One of the most basic turning points that suggest a 4T is just starting to correct course is that people are much more willing to acknowledge the inevitable and face it down on their own terms. We aren't there yet, not even close. Honestly, I'd give us another year before this happens, and another 8-11 years after that before it really gets resolved. As such, my money is on the new idealist births starting around 2027-ish. Of course, we won't really know until the 1T arrives.
I don't see any right-wingers around willing to do anything about "economic inequity and an increasingly-rigid class structure".
Quite to the contrary: they seek to intensify it!
Quote:It is true that Trump alluded to aspects of this, but only offered remedies that make it worse; in fact he doubled down on the neoliberal agenda that so benefits him and his class. I'm afraid that restrictions on big corporate operations and wealthy business interests has to be the central focus of any such correction, since they are the cause of all such economic inequity and the increasingly-rigid class structure. That means higher taxes and regulations on them, and protections and support for the poor and middle class folks who suffer from their behavior and their monopolization of power today in so many ways. And since the government must provide these things, I'm afraid that we need more, not less, "bureaucracy" to handle these matters. And such bureauracy must be clean and not corrupt. Such things as gerrymandering and money-domination of politics, all so favored by the right wing and its supreme court, is the real swamp, and only the Left can or is willing to drain it.
High taxes on large, easy money prevent the accumulation of great fortunes that result from the intensification of economic inequality and administrative brutality associated with those fortunes. High taxes on such money create interstices for small business that can serve niches and do genuine innovation in something other than defeating the democratic safeguards against plutocracy.
(Astrological predictions that I cannot understand. Astrophysics is easier to understand than is astrology).
Quote:As you know, I expect any such course correction will depend on Democrats coming out of the 4T with more power. I don't see any problem with the more-lefty regimes coming into power now in some places South and Latin America; they are not extreme or totalitarian. I don't endorse the Cuba model or Venezuelan kleptocracy, and I abhor the traitor Ortega in Nicaragua, and I don't think the new regimes in Brazil (Lula taking office in January), Chile and Colombia, for example, emulate those models.
Civic generations are conformist even to the extent of preferring similar patterns in consumption possible only with comparative equality of economic opportunity and result. Other generations may tolerate more inequality of result as incentives to work harder and longer to create more prosperity or as some Divine Will.
We have not seen the last of the Hard Right, but the Hard Right is showing itself as simply promoters of selfish indulgence, superstition and pseudoscience, and of a personality cult likely to go from Donald Trump to someone else. It may be ironic, but the weakest leaders in moral standards require the most lavish cults of personality. Obama needed none and neither does Biden; Trump is little else.
RE: [USA] What do you think the political landscape will look like in the new saeculum? - David Horn - 12-16-2022
(12-16-2022, 03:43 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(12-16-2022, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Trump regime was worse than many Latin American regimes.
This is simply melodramatic. Something I wouldn't say even about the worst of US presidents. If he were worse than any of them, you would not have gotten away saying anything like this for the last 6 years. This is the kind of thing that causes independents to dismiss anti-Trump rhetoric as crying wolf.
Like Putin, Trump had access to nuclear codes. That's a huge issue we can't ignore.
RE: [USA] What do you think the political landscape will look like in the new saeculum? - Eric the Green - 12-17-2022
(12-16-2022, 09:52 AM)David Horn Wrote:(12-16-2022, 03:43 AM)JasonBlack Wrote:(12-16-2022, 01:09 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Trump regime was worse than many Latin American regimes.
This is simply melodramatic. Something I wouldn't say even about the worst of US presidents. If he were worse than any of them, you would not have gotten away saying anything like this for the last 6 years. This is the kind of thing that causes independents to dismiss anti-Trump rhetoric as crying wolf.
Like Putin, Trump had access to nuclear codes. That's a huge issue we can't ignore.
I think my statement was an understatement. Trump shreds and wants to destroy the constitution, according to himself. He used his attorney general to defend himself against the abundant misdeeds of his business. In contrast, Chile, Columbia and Brazil and I think Honduras have recently been able to elect a responsible, democratic government. Peru is going through troubles right now to expel a potential coup-making dictator and to elect a president who represents the people. These regimes are better than Trump who attempted to steal an election and is still attempting this so that he can keep his upper class exploiting the Earth and all its people.
This list of all the horrible things Trump did is really long and I don't expect people to plow through the whole thing, but it convincingly gives the lie to any idea that Trump is better than the OTHER authoritarian dictators around the world.
This is a general FB post that I got. Please read and forward! (I got it from Larry Ely)
I really don't owe my Trump-supporting friends an apology. I've been critical of the Trump presidency these last several years and am still exhausted from the experience. But to be fair, President Trump wasn’t that bad…………..other than when he incited an insurrection against the government, mismanaged a pandemic that killed a million Americans, separated children from their families, lost those children in the bureaucracy, tear-gassed peaceful protesters on Lafayette Square so he could hold a photo op holding a Bible in front of a church, tried to block all Muslims from entering the country, got impeached, got impeached again, had the worst jobs record of any president in modern history, pressured Ukraine to dig dirt on Joe Biden, fired the FBI director for investigating his ties to Russia, bragged about firing the FBI director on TV, took Vladimir Putin’s word over the US intelligence community, diverted military funding to build his wall, caused the longest government shutdown in US history, called Black Lives Matter a “symbol of hate,” lied nearly 30,000 times, banned transgender people from serving in the military, ejected reporters from the White House briefing room who asked tough questions, vetoed the defense funding bill because it renamed military bases named for Confederate soldiers, refused to release his tax returns, increased the national debt by nearly $8 trillion, had three of the highest annual trade deficits in U.S. history, called veterans and soldiers who died in combat losers and suckers, coddled the leader of Saudi Arabia after he ordered the execution and dismembering of a US-based journalist, refused to concede the 2020 election, hired his unqualified daughter and son-in-law to work in the White House, walked out of an interview with Lesley Stahl, called neo-Nazis “very fine people,” suggested that people should inject bleach into their bodies to fight COVID, abandoned our allies the Kurds to Turkey, pushed through massive tax cuts for the wealthiest but balked at helping working Americans, incited anti-lockdown protestors in several states at the height of the pandemic, withdrew the US from the Paris climate accords, withdrew the US from the Iranian nuclear deal, withdrew the US from the Trans Pacific Partnership which was designed to block China’s advances, insulted his own Cabinet members on Twitter, pushed the leader of Montenegro out of the way during a photo op, failed to reiterate US commitment to defending NATO allies, called Haiti and African nations “shithole” countries, called the city of Baltimore the “worst in the nation,” claimed that he single handedly brought back the phrase “Merry Christmas” even though it hadn’t gone anywhere, forced his Cabinet members to praise him publicly like some cult leader, believed he should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, berated and belittled his hand-picked Attorney General when he recused himself from the Russia probe, suggested the US should buy Greenland, colluded with Mitch McConnell to push through federal judges and three Supreme Court justices after supporting efforts to prevent his predecessor from appointing judges, repeatedly called the media “enemies of the people,” claimed that if we tested fewer people for COVID we’d have fewer cases, violated the emoluments clause, thought that Nambia was a country, told Bob Woodward in private that the coronavirus was a big deal but then downplayed it in public, called his exceedingly faithful vice president a “p---y” for following the Constitution, nearly got us into a war with Iran after threatening them by tweet, nominated a corrupt head of the EPA, nominated a corrupt head of HHS, nominated a corrupt head of the Interior Department, nominated a corrupt head of the USDA, praised dictators and authoritarians around the world while criticizing allies, refused to allow the presidential transition to begin, insulted war hero John McCain – even after his death, spent an obscene amount of time playing golf after criticizing Barack Obama for playing (far less) golf while president, falsely claimed that he won the 2016 popular vote, called the Muslim mayor of London a “stone cold loser,” falsely claimed that he turned down being Time’s Man of the Year, considered firing special counsel Robert Mueller on several occasions, mocked wearing face masks to guard against transmitting COVID, locked Congress out of its constitutional duty to confirm Cabinet officials by hiring acting ones, used a racist dog whistle by calling COVID the “China virus,” hired and associated with numerous shady figures that were eventually convicted of federal offenses including his campaign manager and national security adviser, pardoned several of his shady associates, gave the Presidential Medal of Freedom to two congressman who amplified his batshit crazy conspiracy theories, got into telephone fight with the leader of Australia(!), had a Secretary of State who called him a moron, forced his press secretary to claim without merit that his was the largest inauguration crowd in history, botched the COVID vaccine rollout, tweeted so much dangerous propaganda that Twitter eventually banned him, charged the Secret Service jacked-up rates at his properties, constantly interrupted Joe Biden in their first presidential debate, claimed that COVID would “magically” disappear, called a U.S. Senator “Pocahontas,” used his Twitter account to blast Nordstrom when it stopped selling Ivanka’s merchandise, opened up millions of pristine federal lands to development and drilling, got into a losing tariff war with China that forced US taxpayers to bail out farmers, claimed that his losing tariff war was a win for the US, ignored or didn’t even take part in daily intelligence briefings, blew off honoring American war dead in France because it was raining, redesigned Air Force One to look like the Trump Shuttle, got played by Kim Jung Un and his “love letters,” threatened to go after social media companies in clear violation of the Constitution, botched the response to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, threw paper towels at Puerto Ricans when he finally visited them, pressured the governor and secretary of state of Georgia to “find” him votes, thought that the Virgin islands had a President, drew on a map with a Sharpie to justify his inaccurate tweet that Alabama was threatened by a hurricane, allowed White House staff to use personal email accounts for official businesses after blasting Hillary Clinton for doing the same thing, rolled back regulations that protected the public from mercury and asbestos, pushed regulators to waste time studying snake-oil remedies for COVID, rolled back regulations that stopped coal companies from dumping waste into rivers, held blatant campaign rallies at the White House, tried to take away millions of Americans’ health insurance because the law was named for a Black man, refused to attend his successors’ inauguration, nominated the worst Education Secretary in history, threatened judges who didn’t do what he wanted, attacked Dr. Anthony Fauci, promised that Mexico would pay for the wall (it didn’t), allowed political hacks to overrule government scientists on major reports on climate change and other issues, struggled navigating a ramp after claiming his opponent was feeble, called an African-American Congresswoman “low IQ,” threatened to withhold federal aid from states and cities with Democratic leaders, went ahead with rallies filled with maskless supporters in the middle of a pandemic, claimed that legitimate investigations of his wrongdoing were “witch hunts,” seemed to demonstrate a belief that there were airports during the American Revolution, demanded “total loyalty” from the FBI director, praised a conspiracy theory that Democrats are Satanic pedophiles, completely gutted the Voice of America, placed a political hack in charge of the Postal Service, claimed without evidence that the Obama administration bugged Trump Tower, suggested that the US should allow more people from places like Norway into the country, suggested that COVID wasn’t that bad because he recovered with the help of top government doctors and treatments not available to the public, overturned energy conservation standards that even industry supported, reduced the number of refugees the US accepts, insulted various members of Congress and the media with infantile nicknames, gave Rush Limbaugh a Presidential medal of Freedom at the State of the Union address, named as head of federal personnel a 29-year old who’d previously been fired from the White House for allegations of financial improprieties, eliminated the White House office of pandemic response, used soldiers as campaign props, fired any advisor who made the mistake of disagreeing with him, demanded the Pentagon throw him a Soviet-style military parade, hired a shit ton of white nationalists, politicized the civil service, did absolutely nothing after Russia hacked the U.S. government, falsely said the Boy Scouts called him to say his bizarre Jamboree speech was the best speech ever given to the Scouts, claimed that Black people would overrun the suburbs if Biden won, insulted reporters of color, insulted women reporters, insulted women reporters of color, suggested he was fine with China’s oppression of the Uighurs, attacked the Supreme Court when it ruled against him, summoned Pennsylvania state legislative leaders to the White House to pressure them to overturn the election, spent countless hours every day watching Fox News, refused to allow his administration to comply with Congressional subpoenas, hired Rudy Giuliani as his lawyer, tried to punish Amazon because the Jeff Bezos-owned Washington Post wrote negative stories about him, acted as if the Attorney General of the United States was his personal attorney, attempted to get the federal government to defend him in a libel lawsuit from a women who accused him of sexual assault, held private meetings with Vladimir Putin without staff present, didn’t disclose his private meetings with Vladimir Putin so that the US had to find out via Russian media, stopped holding press briefings for months at a time, “ordered” US companies to leave China even though he has no such power, led a political party that couldn’t even be bothered to draft a policy platform, claimed preposterously that Article II of the Constitution gave him absolute powers, tried to pressure the U.K. to hold the British Open at his golf course, suggested that the government nuke hurricanes, suggested that wind turbines cause cancer, said that he had a special aptitude for science, fired the head of election cyber security after he said that the 2020 election was secure, blurted out classified information to Russian officials, tried to force the G7 to hold their meeting at his failing golf resort in Florida, fired the acting attorney general when she refused to go along with his unconstitutional Muslim travel ban, hired Stephen Miller, openly discussed national security issues in the dining room at Mar-a-Lago where everyone could hear them, interfered with plans to relocate the FBI because a new development there might compete with his hotel, abandoned Iraqi refugees who’d helped the U.S. during the war, tried to get Russia back into the G7, held a COVID super spreader event in the Rose Garden, seemed to believe that Frederick Douglass is still alive, lost 60 election fraud cases in court including before judges he had nominated, falsely claimed that factories were reopening when they weren’t, shamelessly exploited terror attacks in Europe to justify his anti-immigrant policies, still hasn’t come up with a healthcare plan, still hasn’t come up with an infrastructure plan despite repeated “Infrastructure Weeks,” forced Secret Service agents to drive him around Walter Reed while contagious with COVID, told the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by,” fucked up the Census, withdrew the U.S. from the World Health Organization in the middle of a pandemic, did so few of his duties that his press staff were forced to state on his daily schedule “President Trump will work from early in the morning until late in the evening. He will make many calls and have many meetings,” allowed his staff to repeatedly violate the Hatch Act, seemed not to know that Abraham Lincoln was a Republican, stood before sacred CIA wall of heroes and bragged about his election win, constantly claimed he was treated worse than any president which presumably includes four that were assassinated and his predecessor whose legitimacy and birthplace were challenged by a racist reality TV show star named Donald Trump, claimed Andrew Jackson could’ve stopped the Civil War even though he died 16 years before it happened, said that any opinion poll showing him behind was fake, claimed that other countries laughed at us before he became president when several world leaders were literally laughing at him, claimed that the military was out of ammunition before he became President, created a commission to whitewash American history, retweeted anti-Islam videos from one of the most racist people in Britain, claimed ludicrously that the Pulse nightclub shooting wouldn’t have happened if someone there had a gun even though there was an armed security guard there, hired a senior staffer who cited the non-existent Bowling Green Massacre as a reason to ban Muslims, had a press secretary who claimed that Nazi Germany never used chemical weapons even though every sane human being knows they used gas to kill millions of Jews and others, bilked the Secret Service for higher than market rates when they had to stay at Trump properties, apparently sold pardons on his way out of the White House, stripped protective status from 59,000 Haitians, falsely claimed Biden wanted to defund the police, said that the head of the CDC didn’t know what he was talking about, tried to rescind protection from DREAMers, gave himself an A+ for his handling of the pandemic, tried to start a boycott of Goodyear tires due to an Internet hoax, said U.S. rates of COVID would be lower if you didn’t count blue states, deported U.S. veterans who served their country but were undocumented, claimed he did more for African Americans than any president since Lincoln, touted a “super-duper” secret “hydrosonic” missile which may or may not be a new “hypersonic” missile or may not exist at all, retweeted a gif calling Biden a pedophile, forced through security clearances for his family, suggested that police officers should rough up suspects, suggested that Biden was on performance-enhancing drugs, tried to stop transgender students from being able to use school bathrooms in line with their gender, suggested the US not accept COVID patients from a cruise ship because it would make US numbers look higher, nominated a climate change sceptic to chair the committee advising the White House on environmental policy, retweeted a video doctored to look like Biden had played a song called “Fuck tha Police” at a campaign event, hugged a disturbingly large number of U.S. flags, accused Democrats of “treason” for not applauding his State of the Union address, claimed that the FBI failed to capture the Parkland school shooter because they were “spending too much time” on Russia, mocked the testimony of Dr Christine Blasey Ford when she accused Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault, obsessed over low-flow toilets, ordered the rerelease of more COVID vaccines when there weren’t any to release, called for the construction of a bizarre garden of heroes with statutes of famous dead Americans as well as at least one Canadian (Alex Trebek), hijacked Washington’s July 4th celebrations to give a partisan speech, took advice from the MyPillow guy, claimed that migrants seeking a better life in the US were dangerous caravans of drug dealers and rapists, said nothing when Vladimir Putin poisoned a leading opposition figure, never seemed to heed the advice of his wife’s “Be Best” campaign, falsely claimed that mail-in voting is fraudulent, announced a precipitous withdrawal of troops from Syria which not only handed Russia and ISIS a win but also prompted his defense secretary to resign in protest, insulted the leader of Canada, insulted the leader of France, insulted the leader of Britain, insulted the leader of Germany, insulted the leader of Sweden (Sweden!!), falsely claimed credit for getting NATO members to increase their share of dues, blew off two Asia summits even though they were held virtually, continued lying about spending lots of time at Ground Zero with 9/11 responders, said that the Japanese would sit back and watch their “Sony televisions” if the US were ever attacked, left a NATO summit early in a huff, stared directly into an eclipse even though everyone over the age of 5 knows not to do that, called himself a very stable genius despite significant evidence to the contrary, refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power and kept his promise, and a whole bunch of other things I can’t remember at the moment.
But other than that. . .
Please copy, paste, and Share to Public.
RE: [USA] What do you think the political landscape will look like in the new saeculum? - pbrower2a - 01-01-2023
Donald Trump will continue to have his die-hard supporters but no new ones. As those die off he will increasingly be an object of derision and contempt as a model of how not to be President. See the fascist (British!) windbags of the 1930's that the Monty Python crew mock. It will include not only to not be a despot in style but to not do crazy stuff. "Dull but effective" will prevail in American life, with people recognizing that political results matter far more than eccentric entertainment in politics. If people want entertainment, people will find even politicians saying "see a movie", "watch a sporting event", "add a tier of cable or a streaming service", "attend a concert", or something to that effect.
Political life could be downright bland. People will no longer accept panis et circenses in public life, being more concerned with politicians meeting basic needs or promoting economic growth. Politics will be about making life more congenial irrespective of recent and current poverty in communities and regions.
I expect the Homeland generation to fill a gaping hole in American life in the form of self-effacing comedy as did the American Silent. Although there will be portents analogous to GIs Morey Amsterdam, Lucille Ball, Carl Reiner, Rodney Daingerfield, Redd Foxx, Don Adams, and Don Knotts among the Millennial Generation, the Homeland Generation will start opening up, if tentatively, with humor that erodes the stuffiness of the time. Think also of Chespirito in Mexico and the British zanies of the Monty Python crew.
RE: [USA] What do you think the political landscape will look like in the new saeculum? - pbrower2a - 01-01-2023
In general people will be sick of moralizing crusades, especially those whose m morality is suspect or whose risks make those crusades unworthy. The Mature Reactive (in the Presidency, Washington, J. Adams, Grant, Truman, Eisenhower, Obama) type will set a bland and cautious style while Millennial adults are consolidating power.
Remember well that moralizers can themselves be evil. Adolf Hitler could moralize about all sorts of wrongs done to the Volk while oppressing, enslaving, and killing others. Mobsters, the worst of which are usually associated with Reactive generations, are vindictive in the extreme.
RE: [USA] What do you think the political landscape will look like in the new saeculum? - pbrower2a - 02-11-2023
Costa Rica?