Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-20-2021 ** 20-Aug-2021 World View: Multiple massive events FullMoon Wrote:> What are the feelings of the readers about how close we are to I wish I could tell you something that will make you less anxious, but let's face it, if that's what you want then you're asking the wrong person. As I've been saying for a long time, we're headed for a global financial crisis and a world war. The timeline and the scenario cannot be predicted. All that we can say is that the probability that it will begin "this year" increases each year. Still, you've raised an interesting point that I've noticed and other people have noticed as well. There's a kind of "quickening," where the world is deteriorating more and more quickly, and crises are worsening and occurring more and more frequently. Since you've asked the question, it's worthwhile to give some of the reasons why it's happening. The core reason is that the Silent generation is now gone. These people lived through WW II, and they saw war, famines, massive homelessness, political forces driven by sheer insanity. When they came of age in the 1940s and 1950s, they created institutions like the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the World Bank, and the Green Revolution to make sure that the mistakes that led to WW II would not be repeated. The Silent generation ran those institutions and made sure that they succeeded. The generational Crisis era (Fourth Turning) began in 2003, which is when the people in the Silent generation almost all disappeared, all at once. The Boomers had already created a tech bubble in the late 1990s, and the Gen-Xers got revenge by creating the subprime mortgage real estate bubble, which began to explode in 2007. That was also the year when the counter-terrorism efforts in the war in Iraq were successful, with George Bush's "surge." Barack Obama was the first Gen-X president, and it was one disastrous policy after another. He couldn't close Guantanamo prison, but he released the jihadists that are now returning to lead al-Qaeda. His rollout of Obamacare was the biggest IT disaster in history. On the day of the launch, so many people had lied to him that he didn't even know that the entire system had crashed hours earlier, and was not operational for months. Those are just a few examples of how things have changed since the generational Crisis era began in 2003. Here are some other examples:
So if the question is: why do things keep getting worse, and do so more and more rapidly, I would name two core reasons in this generational Crisis era: the survivors of WW II (Silent generation) have disappeared, leaving decision making in the hands of idiot children, and the population is growing faster than the food supply. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 08-21-2021 (08-20-2021, 08:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 20-Aug-2021 World View: Multiple massive events I see the Unraveling as the depraved behavior of economic, cultural, religious, political, and administrative elites who have a stake in ethical behavior yet choose unethical behavior as shortcuts to achieving what they want or maximizing their take (higher rents, bigger dividends, asset appreciation, higher profits, more bureaucratic power, sweetheart deals with corrupt officials, corporate expansion, tax cuts, regulatory relief, and greater indulgence). I look at the Enrob -- excuse me, Enron -- scandal as a prime example of executives operating with no integrity, caution, or conscience because of their position. I look at the financial and real estate frauds as a prime example of a speculative boom that devours capital, a Ponzi scheme with some construction behind it. Politicians of both Parties are culpable, so let's not make this into a partisan blame-fest. I look at the infamous succession of televangelists fleecing people while winning the sympathy of politicians because the flock of those wolves-in-clerical-garb capable of impoverishing themselves can be delivered to the politicians who win their support. (If one can con people for their cash one can also con people for their votes). I look at educational 'experts' who promote No Child Left Behind as a means to prepare youth for dead-end jobs in retailing, food service, domestic toil, and farm labor as an objective due to the underinvestment in industrial plant and equipment. Corrupt behavior by the Little Guy does not break the system. Someone taking a $20 from the till isn't going to break his employer... but he is likely to get caught due to accounting controls. Street crime usually has poor people as victims, and in a plutocratic order, nobody is more expendable than the poor except for street crooks. The big crooks have the power with which to circumvent accounting controls, and they have the authority to stop anyone from investigating them. It might not be as blatant as Lars Thorwald killing a dog who snoops in the flower bed in which he buried some damning evidence in Alfred Hitchcock's Rear Window (Hitchcock has his way of dark humor, suggesting the cliché "curiosity killed the cat" even if the "cat" in this case is a kitten-sized Yorkshire terrier (I think that is the dog breed), but it is easy to fire anyone who might suspect something. (It's wise to act stupid in so corrupt a circumstance if one wants to keep his job). Television pushes overt, partisan propaganda as objective reality and uses means to strengthen its emotional impact without adding more truth. Thus on FoX News, very much a 3T phenomenon, a common practice for setting up a politicized story denouncing a non-rightist (Clinton is terrible! Obama is terrible! Bernie Sanders is terrible! Biden is terrible! Critical race Theory is horrible!) is to lead in with some violent crime so that viewers can already be angry when they see the story. The violent crime may be local news far away, but anyone who gets a large amount of such stories is getting manipulated. The speculative boom devours wealth while creating the illusion of prosperity. When people start to recognize it for what it is -- a sham -- then the whole edifice of financial and marketing legerdemain collapses. The recent underinvestment in plant and equipment has ensured non-growth in industrial jobs that pay solid salaries. Quote:The core reason is that the Silent generation is now gone. These The Silent built institutions as "me too" participants in a GI-built world. The fault is that they founded few new industrial businesses. They did form professional practices (which can churn a profit), broadcasters, real-estate partnerships, government contractors (Ross Perot), fast-food chains (Dave Thomas), and oil-wildcatters (T. Boone Pickens)... maybe a hobby-like winery. One effect is that we have a big gap in businesses in a certain stage of the business lifecycle -- those that are vibrant with innovation and already profitable, businesses out of the infancy stage that are starting to be big employers but are not in the decline phase in which bureaucratic rigidity stifles innovation. The companies that the Silent formed either did not create large numbers of jobs unless those jobs are dead-end jobs. As for the Green revolution, that was Norman Borlaug, a GI. Quote:The generational Crisis era (Fourth Turning) began in 2003, which is The subprime mortgage bubble happened about eighty years after the bubble of the 1920's... and the crash came almost eighty years later. What generation was disappearing just in time for the subprime mortgage bubble? The GI's the last living adults who remembered the last bubble of the 1920's and who blocked any repetition of such so long as they had influence in government, media, and employment. They effectively suppressed any repetition of their childhood nightmare, whatever their political position. They could still convince their juniors that they had seen it before, that it turned out badly, and anything much the same would turn out much the same. Eighty years is the time necessary for the extinction of mass memories. GI-built institutions were seen no longer as the cause of overall wealth and social sanity; they were (after the GI's were gone) entities to be milked for personal gain and power. Quote:Barack Obama was the first Gen-X president, and it was one disastrous I realize what you think of Obama... the historical assessment is that he pushed the economic measures that kept an economic downturn from becoming a full-blown depression. You can say what you want about Obamacare, but the early bugs are gone. You might not like its spending priorities -- but that is simply your values which are those of an ideological minority. So what really went wrong? Political results are never so neat and clean as is perfect. The concept of Too Big to Fail will almost certainly lead to "Too Corrupt to Survive". Obama saved economic entities that would have the cash with which to fund right-wing political campaigns against his political allies and stick us with such political sludge as Senator Ron Johnson and Governor Kristi Noem. Nothing quite works as intended. Our political institutions were not made for bureaucratic behemoths capable of buying the elected officials; it was made for yeoman farmers and small shopkeepers who could get little good from the Government directly. Corporate farmers are squeezing the small-scale family farmers out by using economies of scale in everything from water supplies to the costs of compliance with labor laws and taxes. Giant defense contractors have a vested interest in wars for profit. Big Business used to prefer small government, but it has found that Big Government can offer huge profits from crony capitalism. The system that best serves bureaucratic behemoths is fascist corporatism in which the State is the ally of the rich and the oppressor of the workingman. End of rant. Quote:Those are just a few examples of how things have changed since the The central bankers can prevent crashes from spiraling into full-blown depressions, but they cannot mitigate the bad behavior of elites who can get away with seemingly anything. Zero population growth is one of the most effective ways in which to prevent an acceleration in the depletion of resources and the emission of even more greenhouse gases. People in the industrial West are at the point at which further consumption of stuff has a near-zero return on expenditure. How many PC's do you need? How many stoves? How many blenders? How many "idiot screens"? If you think refugee flows are floods now, then contemplate the consequences of anthropogenic global warming, when the seas inundate prime farmland now densely populated as possible with peasant farmers who supply the huge quantities of food necessary for several billion people, or when desert belts shift into what are now non-desert areas. I have seen conflicting models of how precipitation will shift (temperatures have less controversy). Will western Texas, now a marginal zone for grain production, become drier as the Hadley Cell moves farther northward or will monsoon conditions develop that bring more rain? . Quote:So if the question is: why do things keep getting worse, and do so The problem is more that we have people more adept at selling nonsense than in solving problems. Our economic system gives the biggest advantages to pathological narcissists, if not outright sociopaths. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 08-21-2021 (For the USA) This 4T seems difficult to interpret as we are living through it. It is, or has been, divisive rather than unifying, yet remaining relatively mild. A decade from now we may be trying to understand it with the benefit of hind sight. On the other hand, I find it hard to see this 4T end with a triumphant note. If we avoid catastrophe, I still think that the next 1T will be, at best, a weak one. Where people will simply feel relieved that the 4T is over. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - galaxy - 08-21-2021 Related to earlier conversations about 2020-2021 being a time of enormous change even compared to earlier in this current turning, in which I mentioned a change in people's relationship to jobs...I encountered this interesting tweet today. https://twitter.com/Tylerjoelb/status/1429091614052519941 "Hustle culture" is dying, quickly and dramatically. No one (born after 1982) will miss it. Millennials, after failing to bring change "the normal way," are now starting to "win" by sheer numbers. I'm increasingly believing that, in addition to the pandemic (and, actually, possibly helped by the pandemic, though that's a pretty morbid thought), some kind of "critical mass" of Millennials/Homelanders in the population has been reached, and that the combination of these two near-simultaneous events is what's responsible for the extremely intense change of the last year-and-a-half or so. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-21-2021 ** 21-Aug-2021 World View: January 6 'Insurrection' hoax collapses
For almost eight months, the Democrats have been claiming that on January 6, Donald Trump incited an organized attack by White Supremacists on the Capitol Building, to prevent the certification of Joe Biden as president. That accusation, unsupported and contradicted by facts, has been used to justify censorship and extrajudicial incarceration of political enemies, and charges of racism and White Supremacy directed at anyone who disagrees with the Democrats. Democrats claim that it was the most violent attack on American democracy since the Civil War. On Friday, the Department of Justice leaked reports that the FBI has found "scant evidence" that the January 6 attack was organized or coordinated. Federal officials have arressted more than 570 alleged participants, often jailing them for months with no credible charges. There were some small groups who planned to break into the Capitol, but even those groups had no serious plans about what to do once inside. The vast majority of the arrests were "one-off cases" of people who were following the crowd when Donald Trump told them to protest peacefully. There have been uncomfirmed reports that there were dozens of FBI operatives in the crowd on January 6, encouraging the Trump supporters to break into the Capitol. There were several dozen "protesters" who entered the Capitol on January 6 who have never been charged with anything, and suspicions are growing that those are all FBI operatives. Republican activists suggest that Nancy Pelosi approved the use of FBI operatives to "stage" the entire "insurrection," for her political benefit. There were no weapons found on January 6, except by those of the Capitol police. Nobody was killed on January 6 except Ashli Babbitt, a pretty young girl, a Trump supporter, just walking through the Capitol building. The Capitol policeman who shot and killed Babbitt has not been named, and has been officially exonerated, but is thought to be Lt. Michael L. Byrd, a black officer of the Capitol police, on the staff of Nancy Pelosi. -- Exclusive: FBI finds scant evidence U.S. Capitol attack was coordinated - sources https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-fbi-finds-scant-evidence-us-capitol-attack-was-coordinated-sources-2021-08-20/ (Reuters, 21-Aug-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 08-21-2021 Regarding Afghanistan.... Looking at various YouTube videos, it seems that Brits and Australians assign blame to Biden rather than the United States. He is viewed as a senile old man. "Cognitively impaired is the term I see being used. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-21-2021 ** 21-Aug-2021 World View: Biden's Afghanistan Catastrophe (08-21-2021, 07:44 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Regarding Afghanistan.... Biden is an pathetic, arrogant liar. He says that Americans are free to leave the country, which is a lie. He says that America's allies approve of what he's doing, which is a lie. He said that he wasn't warned about a likely debacle by DoD and the CIA, which is a lie. He said that al-Qaeda is gone, which is a lie. He says that America has no interest in Afghanistan, which is a lie. He says that girls and women will be safe, which is a lie. He says that it will be possible to control terrorism in Afghanistan with "over the horizon" technology, which is a lie. He said that he made no mistakes in the way he ordered the evacuation to be performed, which is a lie. There are three possible explanations of Biden's repeated lies:
The Democrats are looking for how they're going try their usual strategy of using bullshit to get out of this, but this is a catastrophe of monumental proportions, and it will go on for months, which thousands of Americans being held as hostages by a Taliban now flooded with billions of dollars in advanced US weapons, and by a reconstituted al-Qaeda which will undoubtedly be holding huge celebrations at the American Embassy on 9/11. By the way, the Germans, French and British calling it the "biggest debacle in Nato's history." Biden did not consult with any of them in advance. It's hard to see how Biden's presidency will survive much longer. Nobody voted for Biden. 75 million people voted for Trump, and other people voted against Trump, but nobody voted for Biden. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - nguyenivy - 08-22-2021 (08-21-2021, 02:05 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:(08-20-2021, 08:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 20-Aug-2021 World View: Multiple massive events I notice your comparison of the types of institutions the GI vs Silent built in their heydays. What institutions did the other archetypes of that time build & do we have any comparisons to today's set of archetypes (Boomer, Gen X, Millennial)? Were the Silicon Valley companies we're all familiar with now really a Gen X founding or more of a Boomer thing? My generation, Millennial, are still young enough that our biggest achievements may be yet to come down the road. If the GI are anything to go by, I'd expect us Millennials to build businesses & institutions of the type people the world over highly respect and can rely on for years to come. In a sentence, I imagine us building businesses that are boring but necessary, and not necessarily appealing to the emotions. Maybe re-tooling our energy needs away from fossil fuels & into renewables will be the thing. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-22-2021 (08-21-2021, 06:29 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Aug-2021 World View: January 6 'Insurrection' hoax collapses Stupidity and incompetence never override intent. Was there a herd of sheep among the wolves? Yes. Are they being tragetted by DOJ (or any other law enforcement entitiy)? No. 570 out of roughly 20,000 is what we in the thinking community call selective enforcement: the worst bad apples only! Many of them came with plans, and, in accordance with conspiracy statutes, put those plans into action. They are clearly guilty. Don't believe me. Call any competent lawyer. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-22-2021 ** 22-Aug-2021 World View: Greatest Generation (08-22-2021, 12:54 AM)nguyenivy Wrote: > I notice your comparison of the types of institutions the GI vs Don't forget -- you will be part of the new "Greatest Generation," and your generation's accomplishments will be molded by the war. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-22-2021 ** 22-Aug-2021 World View: Stalinist Fascist Democrats (08-22-2021, 07:55 AM)David Horn Wrote: > Stupidity and incompetence never override intent. Was there a The Reuters story has proven all your claims to be total lies. The Trump supporters were all sheep, peacefully protesting. The wolves, the "bad apples," were apparently all FBI agents assigned to provoke violence. None of those "bad apples" has been arrested, but were apparently used by Nancy Pelosi to stage the "insurrection." Only the peaceful "sheep" have been arrested. In the meantime, massive violence and destruction last year by antifa-blm fascists has been excused, and those criminals all walk free. Even people who were arrested were immediately set free. Even the person who shot Ashli Babbitt dead walks free. The Trump supporters are completely innocent. The Democrats are supporting violent criminals, but they use extrajudicial arrests to hide their criminal activity. Don't believe me. Just ask any Stalinist or Communist Chinese lawyer. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-22-2021 ** 22-Aug-2021 World View: Popular views DaKardii Wrote:> Most of what Biden says about the Afghanistan situation are indeed That's what the Democrats are hoping for. DaKardii Wrote:> Meanwhile, Biden seems to be doing all he can to make the best This really is a conspiracy theory. It's pretty clear that the evacuation was bungled by stupidity and incompetence. To claim that anyone planned it this way gives credit to people who are way too stupid to have even thought of that. DaKardii Wrote:> While I don't doubt that more people who voted for Trump I really don't agree with this. Trump is still hugely popular, and a majority of Americans believe that the election was rigged and stolen from him. Trump claims that he's leading the biggest popular political movement in history. Whether that's true or not remains to be seen, but there's no doubt that Trump is leading a very large movement. Trump talked about all this at the rally he gave in Alabama on Saturday evening. https://www.c-span.org/video/?514187-1/president-trump-holds-rally-cullman-alabama Trump has given dozens of rallies like this, attended by thousands of people. If Biden gave a rally, he'd be lucky if five people showed up. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-22-2021 ** 22-Aug-2021 World View: State Department Guest Wrote:> Does anyone really believe that the State Department doesn't know I definitely believe that the State Dept. doesn't know how many American citizens are in Afghanistan, and where they are. To believe otherwise is to give credit to idiots who in many cases are so stupid, they couldn't find Afghanistan on a map. However, at least they're "woke," and that's all that's important. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - nguyenivy - 08-22-2021 (08-22-2021, 12:40 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2021 World View: Greatest Generation I've thought of it that way but we don't have a war this time as least as of yet. Media opinions on my generation for the last 10 years (or at least pre-COVID) has been 'failure to launch' / 'boomerangs' (people who moved back home after university due to 2008/9 recession). What were the older generations' (Lost/Missionary/Progressive) opinions of the GI/'Greatest Gen' at the equivalent point in the last saeculum? I suppose the 2000s/2010s equivalent last time was the 1920s/1930s except this time we got a pandemic right in the Crisis rather than the Unravelling. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-22-2021 *** 23-Aug-21 World View -- The Afghanistan catastrophe This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** The Afghanistan catastrophe **** Bitter, defiant President Joe Biden angry at non-compliant press coverage (Huffington Post) The disastrous events in Afghanistan are still unfolding, so all we can do is summarize what happened, and make some guesses about what's about to happen. I will say that this situation has sickened and infuriated me more than any other article I've written. Once President Biden made the decision to evacuate all American forces, he made a number of additional decisions, related to the execution of the evacuation, that turned out to the cause of the disaster. And these assessments are based on numerous analyses that I've heard on Fox News, MSNBC, the BBC and al-Jazeera. The two worst decisions were the following:
Analysts I heard agree that all civilians should have been evacuated first, then all the weapons should have been removed, and only then should Bagram airbase have been evacuated. The most immediate results of these decisions are the following:
The disaster is compounded by the numerous lies that Biden told in the last two weeks, getting visibly angry and defiant whenever anyone challenges him. He said that Americans are free to leave the country, which is a lie. He said that America's allies approve of what he's doing, which is a lie. He said that he wasn't warned about a likely debacle by DoD and the CIA, which is a lie. He said that al-Qaeda is gone, which is a lie. He said that America has no further interest in Afghanistan, which is a lie. He said that girls and women will be safe, which is a lie. He said that it will be possible to control terrorism in Afghanistan with "over the horizon" technology, which is a lie. He said that he made no mistakes in the way he ordered the evacuation to be performed, which is a lie. Biden responded to criticism by claiming that he had two choices: continue the war with more troops, or end the war. This was spin. He used this claim to deflect from the incompetency of the evacuation, and also, evacuating the troops was never going to end the war. There's an increasing belief that Biden is so cognitively challenged that he is completely out of touch with reality, his presidency is a danger to the country. Unfortunately, his vice-president is not much better. **** **** Reconstitution of al-Qaeda and 'Over the Horizon' warfare **** Biden made several false claims -- that al-Qaeda was completely gone, that the mission in Afghanistan over the last 20 years had been accomplished, and that Afghanistan was no longer relevant to America. The claim that al-Qaeda was gone was contradicted by a UN report that claimed that elements of al-Qaeda continued to exist in numerous provinces. Al-Qaeda have always been closely related to and a part of the Taliban, and analysts say that when the American troops have been withdrawn, al-Qaeda will reconstitute itself fully. At that point, al-Qaeda will be back where it was 20 years ago -- having a safe haven in Afghanistan to use as a platform to launch international attacks on Europe, the Mideast and possibly America. Jihadists from all over the world will be energized, and will come to Afghanistan for training. Biden made vague claims that al-Qaeda terrorism can be prevented by "Over the Horizon" technology, which uses such things as drones to augment local intelligence. The problem is that all local intelligence has been pretty much destroyed. **** **** Resurgence of ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K) **** There has been an ISIS branch in Afghanistan for some years, known as ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K). This is a jihadist group in competition with al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and they pretty much hate each other. The importance of ISIS Khorasan is that they may decide to launch some kind of terrorist attack around Kabul to embarrass both the Taliban and the United States. **** **** Biden says he is just following Donald Trump's policy **** Biden has reversed one Donald Trump policy after another, causing one disaster after another for the country. Since Biden has become president, he has turned decision making over to millennials like AOC who are sabotaging America. The result is open borders, floods of illegal immigrants from dozens of counrties, spreading Covid and bringing jihadists into the country; changing us from an energy-dependent country to a country begging other countries for energy; massive street crime in cities across the country; and now this unmitigated disaster in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is the one Trump policy Biden chose not to reverse, but did so in the most disastrous way possible. Biden claims that he was just implementing a decision to withdraw the troops that had already been committed by his predecessor, Donald Trump. But he did so in a way most likely to sabotage America. Trump has indicated that he would have made sure that the civilians and weapons were removed before the troops were removed, and that claim is credible since it's standard military procedure and is the policy used, for example, in the evacuation of Saigon in 1975. In view of this history, it's hard to explain Biden's decision to withdraw troops first was done other than intentionally to sabotage America, just as opening the borders, ending energy production and supporting street crime are apparently done purposely to sabotage America. However, analysts claim that Trump's decision in March 2020 to evacuate was also delusional, and I agree with that, and I said so at the time. I started writing about this in 2009, during the Barack Obama administration. President George Bush had executed a successful counter-insurgency operation in Iraq in 2007, driving out al-Qaeda in Iraq with a troop "surge." In 2009, I ridiculed Obama's announcement that he would try to duplicate Bush's success with his own "surge" in Afghanistan. ( "People are shocked! shocked! at Obama's war plan in Afghanistan. (06-Dec-2009)" ) As I explained many times since then, Iraq and Afghanistan were fundamentally different, with the result that a "surge" would work in Iraq, but not in Afghanistan. I've written about this at length many times, but briefly, the fighters in the al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) insurgency were imported from Jordan and Saudi Arabia, while the fighters, in the Afghan insurgency were Pashtuns indigenous to Afghanistan. This is so simple and so obvious that it's unbelievable how stupid the people in Washington are not to understand this. The "surge" in Iraq sent the foreign fighters out of the country, while the "surge" in Afghanistan just sent them to other villages within the country. Here's what I wrote in "16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan" in response to Donald Trump's agreement with the Taliban to withdraw American forces: <QUOTE>"Why the Afghan peace agreement must fail Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody, horrific civil war, in 1991-96. The war was a civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the Pashtun tribes in Pakistan. Indeed, it's much worse than that. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan are COMPLETELY NON-UNITED and loathe each other. Pashtuns still have scores to settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance, especially the Shias. These opposing groups have fresh memories of the atrocities, torture, rape, beatings, dismemberments, mutilations, and so forth that the other side performed on their friends, wives and other family members, and they have no desire to be friends or to work together. They'd rather kill each other. The above is a brief summary of stuff that I've written about in great detail in the past about why peace will fail in Afghanistan. It's not rocket science for the so-called "Washington experts," but it does require studying history and trying to understand what's actually going on in the world. But we live in a society where SAT scores have been plummetting for decades, ever since the Boomers graduated, and where all college courses are being taught by incredibly stupid Marxist idiots. People in the mainstream media know nothing about the world except Marxist sociology and women's studies. In Congress you have total idiots like AOC who says something every day to prove how stupid she is. And in the Administration, you have "experts" who have also graduated from colleges teaching Marxist sociology and women's studies. So there's really no hope. The above summary is not rocket science, but it's far beyond the mental capabilities of the analysts, journalists and "experts" in Washington, almost all of whom are way too steeped in metoo and socialist garbage to have any clue what's really going on in the world. The same is true about many of the other hundreds of countries and societies that I've studied, analyzed and written about in the last 15 years. All the people in Washington can do is stumble in the dark, until they stumble into World War III. Then they finally learn what's going on. That's the way the world works. "War is God's way of teaching Americans geography." -- Attributed to American satirist Ambrose Bierce, early 1900s."<END QUOTE> If you read the above, you get some idea why I'm always right and the Washington experts are almost always wrong. The catastrophe going on in Afghanistan right now shows the result. I would add that you can also get some idea why being always right has never made me loved. It's brought me no joy, no money, but plenty of contempt. Generational Dynamics has been a curse on my life and has only brought me misery, as the ability to foretell the future did for the mythical Cassandra and the Biblical Jeremiah. I've been doing this for 20 years, and since I'm now age 77, I hope I won't be doing this much longer. **** **** Generational Dynamics and the Democide Pattern **** So now we can use some Generational Dynamics analysis to predict some patterns that we can expect to see in Afghanistan. Regular readers know that I've written several times about the differences that depend on whether the preceding crisis war was an external war with another country versus an internal crisis civil war between tribes and ethnic groups. In the former case, when the war ends, the two armies each withdraw from the other country, and further contact between the populations is done diplomatically. But in the latter case, the two populations continue to live with each other when the war ends -- in the same country, the same villages and even on the same streets. This means that the hatred and the desire for revenge continue at a very personal level. After a generational crisis civil war, the two sides are never really at peace. The losing ethnic group uses demonstrations and riots to attack the winning government, while the winning government uses violence and extrajudicial torture and jailing to control the losing group. I use the term "Democide Violence" to describe this violence by the winning ethnic group government against the losing ethnic group. In the case of Afghanistan, we can expect to see this Democide Pattern played out by the Taliban against their enemies in the 1990s civil war -- the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern Alliance. The Democide Pattern was extremely bloody in the late 1990s, following the 1991-96 civil war, when the Pashtuns committed massacres against the Hazaras in northern Afghanistan. Those massacres ended with the defeat of the Taliban 20 years ago by Nato, but they may begin again. The Panjshir Valley in northern Afghanistan is a hotbed of the old Northern Alliance. The Taliban says that they are sending hundreds of fighters to the Panjshir Valley. This drama will unfold in the next few days and weeks. In the past, the Taliban have been unable to subdue the Panjshir Valley because of its geography -- high mountains on three sides with a narrow pass on the fourth side. However, there is a difference this time because the Taliban will be armed with the advanced weapons that the Americans left behind. This will be the first major test of the Taliban's use of American weapons. **** **** Using economic leverage against the Taliban **** Biden is going to try to get the August 31 deadline extended. The Taliban have said that they will refuse to allow that, but Biden can use economic leverage. There $16 billion in Afghanistan Central Bank assets being held by the United States or by the IMF, and unfreezing these funds can be used as leverage. However, this may cause the Taliban government to ask China or Pakistan for a temporary infusion of funds. It's not clear how all this will play out. This may well end up being another humiliation for the United States. It is just one more example of how President Biden's evacuation of Afghanistan is, according to many analysts I've heard, the greatest foreign policy disaster since the end of World War II, and completely preventable. In my opinion, the country is being led by an arrogant, bumbling fool for a president, and an arrogant, bumbling fool for a vice-president. This is an extremely dangerous time for all of us. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Joe Biden, Nato, Taliban, al-Qaeda, Bagram airbase, Over the Horizon, ISIS Khorasan, ISIS-K, Iraq, al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI, Democide Pattern, Panjshir Valley, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Northern Alliance Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 08-23-2021 Trump cut the deal, and we rescind it at grave risk. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-23-2021 (08-22-2021, 12:46 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Aug-2021 World View: Stalinist Fascist Democrats I reread the Reuters article, and have a hard time getting the same "information" from it that you did. The only thing that seems to be off the table is seditous insurrection, because they were too stupid to have more than a plan to break-in. That hardly makes them innocent (espeicailly when you cite BLM protests as models needing prosecution). There's still plenty there without that, and a few of them will get years behind bars for their trouble. Some BLM protestors will too. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-23-2021 ** 23-Aug-2021 World View: The FBI and the Staged Insurrection (08-23-2021, 10:41 AM)David Horn Wrote: > I reread the Reuters article, and have a hard time getting the Did you read what you've written? There's NO INSURRECTION! The "insurrection" WAS A HOAX perpetrated by your asshole pals in the Democrat party. It's not even clear that "trespassing" was a crime on January 6, since the Capitol was/is open to the public, and Capitol police apparently invited the protesters to enter the building. If some people illegally trespassed, or if they broke a couple of windows, then fine, prosecute them, though they should be out on bail within a couple of days. But many of the so-called "insurrectionists" were simply standing around on the Capitol steps or outside the building. They committed no crime whatsoever, except the crime of being Trump supporters, but they've were thrown in jail for months, often in solitary confinement. Compare that to the antifa-blm fascists who burned down buildings and cars, but still walk free. So the next question is: Why did the Democrats leak the story about "scant evidence"? What was their motive? Tucker Carlson has investigated and believes that it was to prevent FBI agents in the crowd from being identified. The January 6 show had a predecessor -- a 2020 hoax to accuse a group of Trump supporters of trying to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. It now turns out that the entire attempt was provoked by a dozen FBI agents who had infiltrated the group and helped them plan the entire plot. The FBI was extremely embarrassed when the identity of the FBI agents was revealed. -- The group accused of plotting to kidnap Michigan Gov. Whitmer was riddled with FBI informants who took leading roles, according to BuzzFeed https://www.insider.com/kidnapping-conspiracy-whitmer-fbi-informants-report-2021-7 (Insider.com, 21-Jul-2021) So Tucker Carlson believes that the "scant evidence" leak was used to prevent the false accusations from going to trial, so that the FBI agents in the January 6 hoax would not revealed. This is entirely plausible, in view of Whitmer kidnapping hoax. -- Tucker Carlson sees coverup plot behind announcement FBI found little evidence of coordination among Jan. 6 demonstrators https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/08/tucker_carlson_sees_coverup_plot_behind_announcement_fbi_found_little_evidence_of_coordination_among_jan_6_demonstrators_.html (American Thinker, 21-Aug-2021) Horn, you were an antiwar protester in the 1960s, weren't you? And what if you had found out that antiwar groups had been infiltrated by FBI agents who provoked them into committing crimes to discredit the entire antiwar movement? How would you have reacted? We know how you would have reacted. You would have been furious. Now exactly the same thing is happening to innocent Trump supporters, and you should be equally infuriated. Horn, you still seem to be capable of thought. In this I contrast you to Brower who is no longer capable of thought, but has become completely evil without even realizing it. He would have been perfectly happy in the 1930s doing Joseph Goebbels' job, or being a Grand Kleagle in the KKK overseeing the lynching of blacks. As far as I can tell, he has no moral center any more, but is simply a sock puppet for Nancy Pelosi. But you still seem to be capable of thought. Why are you in league with these evil people who are infiltrating peaceful protesters with FBI agents? And that's not all. These people are implementing policies dictated by "the squad," who come from countries that hate the United States and want to do everything possible to destroy the country. They let criminals out of jail, they encourage blacks to kill each other on the street, they flood the country with Covid-laden people from countries around the world, who flood the country with enough fentynal to kill the entire population, they've turned energy-independent America into a country begging for energy, and now we have the Afghanistan debacle which was implemented in the worst possible way. These outcomes are not unintended consequences. They're done on purpose to destroy the United States. I can imagine AOC calling home every day and bragging that she's playing a big part in destroying America. Supporting these evil people makes you as evil as they are. Why are you still supporting them? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Eric the Green - 08-23-2021 (08-23-2021, 02:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 23-Aug-2021 World View: The FBI and the Staged Insurrection Were you part of the insurrection on Jan.6? I call it the attempted Trump coup. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-23-2021 ** 23-Aug-2021 World View: Insurrection by TV watching (08-23-2021, 06:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: > Were you part of the insurrection on Jan.6? I call it the There was no insurrection on January 6. However, I did watch the staged insurrection hoax on TV, but please don't tell the Democrats, because they may decide that it's "insurrectionist" merely to watch it on TV, and they may start jailing such people. |