Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-27-2021 ** 26-Oct-2021 World View: The Official New Testament Navigator Wrote:> This is getting at the fact that the New Testament didn't exist in The only comment I would add to this is that the fundamentalist Christians that I have known, especially in college, would say that whatever changes were made to the Apostolic letters, whatever letters were found or lost, whatever led Bishop Athanasius to declare in 367 what were the all and only books of the official New Testament -- whatever went into all those decisions was guided by God at every step of the way, and so every word in the official New Testament (and the entire Bible) is the literal inspired word of God. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-27-2021 ** 26-Oct-2021 World View: Generational Theory and Fatalism on personal and generational levels tim Wrote:> You shall not bow down to them or worship them; for I, the Lord When I write about generational theory, I usually talk about crisis wars or crisis eras or the 58-year rule, and so forth. However, there are core concepts in generational theory that are very deep, and were well understood in Biblical times.
One more thing: I said that understanding generational theory does not end well. King Solomon said the same thing in Ecclesiastes: "For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow." I hope that answers your question. Navigator asked me a similar question in March of last year, and I responded with a video of Judy Collins and the Rainbow Connection, with particular attention to the last verse: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrakVGeTi14 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrakVGeTi14 Quote:Have you been half asleep and have you heard voices? If you do nothing else tonight, just sit back and listen to the beautiful Judy Collins singing The Rainbow Connection, and think about what you're s'posed to be. (Above was updated to include another quote from Ecclesiastes.) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-27-2021 (10-18-2021, 01:51 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 18-Oct-2021 World View: At MIT, woke Twitter mob clashes with academic values To make a long story short, ocean planets are the most precarious abodes for life because the difference in temperature (a consequence of the thermal flux from the host star) between a freeze-over and a moist greenhouse is incredibly narrow. About two billion years ago and about 700 million years ago the Earth, which has never quite been an ocean world, froze from the poles to the equator rapidly. The average temperature in one case was about 15C just before the nearly-complete freeze-over as methane was depleted from the atmosphere, and in another case the earth had a similar average temperature before oxygen (not a greenhouse gas) replaced carbon dioxide and rusted exposed iron in the sea. The Earth went from a rust-like red to icy white. Ferric oxide is bright red, and as it forms from the rusting of iron, atmospheric oxygen vanishes, and atmospheric pressure plummets. Carbon dioxide is itself sequestered by plants (which is a partial loss of atmospheric pressure) and the oxygen (which comes from water) replaces oxygen in the atmosphere and dissolves in the seas. As it combines with iron the atmospheric pressure also drops, and so does the absolute temperature (based on absolute zero). Reduce the pressure in an insulated container and the temperature falls unless the container shrinks. Raise the pressure in the same container, and if the container does not expand the container gets hotter. On an ocean planet or one with a largely-oceanic surface like ours, the first place to go below the freezing point of water ices over, and nearly-white ice and snow reflect more warming radiation and the frozen zones expand. As those enter the middle latitudes, the icing accelerates. That's the cold end. The Earth is not far away from the average of 15C at the start of some of the nastiest ice ages. On the other side of temperature, an average temperature of about 30C is enough to initiate a dangerous wet greenhouse. 30C doesn't sound that bad, as it is just short of being a warm bath... but figuring that the laws of biological evolution are much the same on inhabited planets, 30C is a temperature at which oxygen-dependent creatures (like fish) die off because oxygen isn't so soluble in warm water. 30C is also the temperature of the hottest parts of the Earth's oceans, and those warm oceans have the high evaporation that fosters hurricanes. Hurricanes can dissipate much heat, but water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas much more potent than carbon dioxide. Because the Earth has significant land masses and oceans in the tropical regions, something like the last Ice Age did not quite engulf the world. What wasn't iced up heavily became a sere desert planet, and there wasn't enough moisture in the atmosphere to expand the ice sheets into the subtropical regions. The tropical oceans themselves shrank, and being cooler they evaporated less moisture. Desert planets like those favored in science-fiction "space Westerns"... deserts and steppes make cinematography easy, which explains why most John Wayne westerns are filmed in the American Southwest and many scenes from Star Wars were filmed in Tunisia. Desert planets have greater ranges of temperature, but humidity is generally low, so both icing over and a wet greenhouse can happen only at more extreme temperatures worldwide. OK. I'm done with some speculations on planetary conditions. Quote:However, in August, Abbot co-authored an opinion piece for Newsweek in Because they can? Because the minority groups that used to be hyper-disadvantaged aren't so disadvantaged as they used to be? Because affirmative action is no longer certain to cause an organization to end up with large numbers of incompetent people who cripple such an organization? Far more blacks and Hispanics have high-quality education, and a high-quality education usually suggests a work ethic. Lazy people are much less likely to graduate from college, including even mediocre-to-poor ones. Intellectual brilliance may be more relevant in STEM activities in deciding competence, but in bureaucratic organizations in which getting along with others and not stepping on the toes of co-workers matters far more. Bureaucracies are great places for giving jobs to people that a government agency or highly-regulated company that hires masses of employees yet cannot quite fire people who are marginally productive but personally pleasant. When President Trump claims that blacks are doing better while he was President, then such is not the result so much of policies that make getting ahead easier for blacks, but instead because blacks are more likely to get the chances that blacks rarely got as late as 55 years ago in "Ku Kluxistan". I notice that black families in Michigan are often moving out of Dreadful -- excuse me, Detroit -- to rural areas where the educational standards are more rigorous and more of the funding goes into honest-to-Horace-Mann education and less into graft. K-12 education outside of Michigan's worst cities is horrible (I am sure that you can name plenty of examples), but in rural areas it is much more effective. Maybe building costs and maintenance aren't so expensive. Maybe the teachers don't have so many opportunities to do something more lucrative. K-12 teaching if any good is more salesmanship than anything else, and selling cars or real estate in a giant city can pay extremely well in a giant city, but not quite so well in a small town. If you have a well-paying (by local standards) job as a teacher, then cashiering in a convenience or box store, working in a motel or restaurant off Exit 23 off Interstate 60 (or is it Exit 60 off Interstate 23?), being a teller in a bank or credit union, or doing work on a farm or ranch might be the alternatives. It is easier for two black parents or a "mixed" couple (their kids will be black) to insist that their kids not drown their talents in watching the Idiot Screen or playing video games instead of doing homework as they might more easily get away with in "Detritus, Michigan". As for Hispanics... it might be surprising that many Hispanics are more imitating Asian-Americans than white Americans as a whole (there certainly are plenty of white losers who trivialize education, endure habits of meth and opiates, and move about aimlessly in life once a local mass-employer shuts down locally). Many are starting businesses. OK, we have plenty of ways of judging people. A degree from a highly-selective university (Harvard, the University of California system) means more than one from a not-so-selective place (the University of Southern Illinois, which churns out a disproportionate number of "education" majors), and then even more than some questionable Bible School that does not challenge the values of the students who attend it or a questionable "technical institute" that promises to train people for careers. Such a college may advertise (and a college that advertises is suspect; MIT doesn't need to advertise, but a bunch of colleges that died when Obama was President because their graduates ended up with huge debt and no possibility of a paying career that they could not have gotten out of high school) does. Degrees from diploma mills are worthless except for temporarily bamboozling people. The effect rarely lasts, as the recipient of a degree from a diploma does nothing to prepare one for the complexities of a competitive world: Quote:Many people receive advertisements for "colleges" offering the opportunity to earn college degrees (usually for personal advancement) with little or no work.<ref group=note>[[Ben Goldacre]] managed to get a degree for his cat, who had been dead for a few years at the time.</ref> These degrees, of course, typically do not represent a substantial learning opportunity and do not give the "students" the knowledge and skills represented by a traditional degree. The dedication of four academic years to achieving a bachelor's degree at a genuine college or university is also a life-changing experience whose effects are difficult to replicate with other experiences, which explains why a bachelor's degree from even a mediocre college or university suggests virtues that many employers cherish (such as recognizing that there is more to life than "sex&drugs&rock-n-roll"), and a degree from a diploma mill is worthless. America is still largely a capitalist society, and when bureaucratic behemoths fail because society deems them more Too Corrupt to Save or Contemptibly Obsolete instead of Too Big to Fail there will be niches for small businesses to take over where the corporation failed. When such happens on a large scale we will have another Great Depression. Ironically the Great Depression was a time in which many people started new businesses. For a paleontological model, I once saw "Sue" at the Natural History Museum of Chicago "Sue", the best fossil reconstruction of a T. Rex, was placed next to a mock-up against an African elephant. The elephant would have never had a chance. A modern creature arguably as bloodthirsty as any cinematic depiction of T. Rex (Meow!) is an absolute terror to any creature smaller than itself aside from perhaps a small dog... then again, small dogs are very cat-like. Prey for the mini-tigers prowling about the suburban shrubbery as if those were the Sunderbans of the Ganges Delta typically have rapid reproduction rates and large litters, so the mouse, sparrow, and lizard populations are not in danger. Elephants and humans get along with small litters, long gestation periods, and long childhoods -- and neither could get along in the presence of T. Rex. OK, we might get an edge over T. Rex if we had Katusha rockets, but those are not the sorts of things that hunter-gatherers can make. In retailing, Sears and K-Mart are dying and JC Penney is on life support. I am tempted to believe that small businesses could start clothing stores in small towns that JC Penney left thirty years ago... and don't let me get started on the bloated, exorbitant, and now dull enclosed shopping malls. People will shop where the selection and quality are good and prices are fair, and they will not concern themselves with the religion, ethnicity, educational level, or even sexual preference of the owners. The chains became excessively rigid and unimaginative. OK, Wal*Mart thrives in part because it jumped onto the IT bandwagon when other retailers thought such incomprehensible. I'm not so sure that Wal*Mart will be able to fit an America that is less white and rural over the years. Quote:Here are some excerpts from the Newsweek article: Pedagogic fads come and go, and "woke" will be one of them. The "woke" crowd will sink or swim depending on how they can achieve desirable results. Should they mess up the colleges, then there will be alternatives in the private sector. College students do not themselves cluster around educational fads such as the "value-free learning" that I recall being touted in the 1970's. No values? Then colleges might as well be playgrounds for "sex&drugs&rock-n-roll". Big deal! One can wallow in "sex&drugs&rock-n-roll" without attending college. Wallowing in "sex&drugs&rock-n-roll" while attending the University of Michigan is one sure way to both get nothing from the educational experience and never graduate. The more recent fad that reflects 3T values (It's all about the money") that has made people look to college more as a means of getting ahead in life irrespective of the harm that one does to others. All in all, what matters most in an undergraduate education? It's the same old objective of the medieval university: to improve the student as a person. Obviously the necessary improvements deemed necessary at the University of Bologna over 900 years ago are different from those appropriate now because the technology and institutions of our time are no longer medieval, and the great lore of essential learning is mostly from later -- much later. Moral standards of a millennium ago (heretics and witches deserve to be burned at the stake) would now be abominable. Quote:So the lecture was canceled, thanks to attacks by what Abbot describes Here's my prediction on social media: social media will clean up their acts or they will die for being asocial. Quote:What's interesting is that Abbot has apparently received a great deal It is possible to be a fascist or Stalinist and recognize the hazard of climate change. A fascist or Stalinist would see climate change as an opportunity to exterminate people to create a supposedly-better world. A liberal or libertarian would cavil at such... and rightly so. The rules that begin "Thou Shalt Not" can be terribly inconvenient. Just try living without them. Quote:The result is that Abbot has been invited to give his lecture Got a link? Quote:I do believe that the loony trend is reversing. It's been going on at Do you truly believe that someone who has the "Tea Party" or its derivative "MAGA" agenda typically overflows with new ideas or can well expound old virtues that we need to rediscover the hard way at times? Vices and blunders must both seduce by exaggerating their attractiveness and denying their harm. Given a second chance, the Confederacy would have not repeated the insane thrust to Gettysburg, and the Nazis would have withdrawn from Stalingrad. I've known plenty of people who regretted such habits as alcoholism, smoking, drugs, and bed-hopping when those wrecked their lives. Those vices are blunders. I rarely see the word "teabagger" any more. Indeed it does not pass spell-check, which not only finds spelling errors but also warns people of triviality and irrelevance. Juan Crisostomo Arriaga was one of the most promising young composers to have ever lived (he wrote some works suggesting that he might be on par with Beethoven when he died around age 20), but spellcheck suggests that such is largely irrellavunt to most people. "Irrelllavunt" is simply a misspelling. "Teabagger" is largely irrelevant to contemporary discussion of politics. Donald Trump has done as much as any President to demonize opponents and rivals as any President in history. Not even Lincoln could say as much against the Confederacy as Trump has said about harmless, honest people. If you are going to demonize someone, then make sure that that person is thoroughly vile and lacking in moral virtues. Quote:MIT is debating academic values versus loony woke policies. It's a College grads have an unpleasant habit of abandoning academic fads that do them no good. The only ones who continue those are the ones who maintain those in academia. Just think of "value-free education. Egad! [/quote] College grads have an unpleasant habit (at least as their professors see it) of abandoning academic fads that do them no good. The only ones who continue those are the ones who maintain those in academia. Just think of "value-free education. Egad! RE: Generational Dynamics World View - nguyenivy - 10-28-2021 (10-10-2021, 07:01 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 11-Oct-21 World View -- Tensions heat up between China and Taiwan I thought World War II began in September 1939, not 1937. Did historians revise the date based on new information about that time? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-28-2021 ** 28-Oct-2021 World View: Dorian Abbot at Princeton Quote:> The result is that Abbot has been invited to give his lecture (10-27-2021, 11:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Got a link? -- James Madison Program hosts geophysics professor Dorian Abbot after MIT cancels lecture https://www.dailyprincetonian.com/article/2021/10/james-madison-dorian-abbot-mit-princeton (Princetonian, 26-Oct-2021) -- Dorian Abbot / Princeton welcomes professor whose lecture was canceled at MIT https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/10/17/fallout-from-mit-canceling-professors-lecture-more-than-7000-people-register-for-profs-lecture-at-princeton/ (Boston Herald, 17-Oct-2021) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-29-2021 ** 29-Oct-2021 World View: Start of World War II (10-28-2021, 09:42 PM)nguyenivy Wrote: > I thought World War II began in September 1939, not 1937. Did World War II began with the Marco Polo Bridge incident in July 1937, which was followed by the Japanese invasion of China and the Rape of Nanking. *** World View 2-Feb-2019: When will World War III begin? http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5168&p=43876#p43876 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-30-2021 *** 31-Oct-21 World View -- Saudi Arabia expels Lebanon ambassador over Iran's increasing influence This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Saudi Arabia expels Lebanon ambassador over Iran's increasing influence **** Christian protesters block the streets in Beirut (Al-Jazeera) Lebanon continues to face one disaster after another, following a historic port implosion last year and an eight-hour gun battle in Beirut earlier this month. Lebanon now faces a major diplomatic and trade crisis with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador to Lebanon on Friday for consultations, and requested the departure of Lebanon's Saudi envoy by Monday. Saudi Arabia futhermore halted all imports of all products from Lebanon. Bahrain followed Saudi Arabia in solidarity, and Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates did the same. The action was triggered by the airing last week of an August 5 interview in which Lebanon's Information Minister George Kordahi made harsh criticisms of the Saudi Arabia led coalition in the war in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. In the interview, Kordahi that the Houthi rebels were "defending themselves ... against an external aggression," and that "homes, villages, funerals and weddings were being bombed" by the coalition. Last week, Kordahi told local reporters on Wednesday that he refused to apologize and that the interview was his "personal opinion," since he was still a private citizen at the time. He said, "I did not wrong anyone. I did not attack anyone. Why should I apologize? I stated my position with love as a human who feels Arab suffering." Well, the Saudis apparently did not feel the love, as the Saudis withdrew their ambassador shortly thereafter. Saudi Arabia has considered Lebanon a close ally for decades, but relations have soured as Hezbollah has gained power in Lebanon. Hezbollah is recognized as a Shia terrorist group by the West and by the Arab League. Saudi Arabia and Lebanon got along well for years, as long they could agree that Israel was the bad guy. But things started deteriorating in 2011 when Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad started attacking innocent Sunni protesters, and and Hezbollah's militias began fighting in Syria in support of al-Assad's army. Relations between Lebanon and Saudi further eroded in 2020, when the Abraham Accords were signed during the Trump administration. A particularly dramatic incident occurred in 2017, when Saad Hariri, the prime minister of Lebanon, made a seemingly routine trip to Saudi Arabia, but then shocked everyone by resigning as prime minister while there, giving as a reason the fear that Iran and Hezbollah would assassinate him. Hariri's father, Rafiq Hariri, was killed in 2005 by a massive explosion in Beirut that was blamed on Syria and Hezbollah. (See "5-Nov-17 World View -- Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia" ) So George Kordahi's harsh criticism of Saudi Arabia's role in Yemen may have been stated "with love," but now that he is Lebanon's Information Minister, he is under increasing pressure to resign. **** **** Judge Tarek Bitar the center of the Beirut's October 14 gun battle **** The new actions by Saudi Arabia followed a six hour gun battle in downtown Beirut, Lebanon's capital city, on October 14. Hezbollah supporters were marching peacefully to protest the investigation of last year's port explosion, which was led by Judge Tarek Bitar. The gun battle was between Hezbollah supporters and supporters of Samir Geagea, who is leader of the Lebanese Forces party (which is a political party, not the Lebanon army). Each side accuses the other of firing the first shot, and seven people were killed, with dozens injured. At the center of all this is Judge Tarek Bitar, who has been described as incorruptible, and who is conducting the investigation into who is responsible for the Beirut port explosion last year. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020, a catastrophic explosion in the Beirut seaport leveled thousands of homes, killed and injured thousands of people, and left 300,000 people homeless. It's considered by many to be the biggest non-nuclear explosion in history. (See "22-Aug-20 World View -- Hezbollah implicated in catastrophic Beirut Lebanon explosion" ) Lebanon is a country where corruption runs deep and politicians are assassinated, all with impunity. Meanwhile, there is no regular electricity or water or garbage collection, the value of the currency has fallen 90%, and the politicians appear to be doing very well. The ordinary people of Lebanon are sick and tired of the impunity, and want someone to be named responsible for the port blast. It's widely believed that Hezbollah is responsible, though the crime may be great enough to enmesh other politicians as well. The reason that Hezbollah supporters were marching on October 14 is that they were demanding that Judge Bitar's investigation be ended, leaving no one to take the blame for the port blast. Lebanon is hoping for aid from the international community before the economy collapses completely. Aid is being blocked, pending reforms and democratization of Lebanon's government, and Bitar's investigation has been seen by the international community as the best hope for reform. Lebanon's politicians were particularly hoping for support from the Arab nations, but that now seems impossible. The October 14 gun battle has further paralyzed Lebanon's government. Hezbollah is refusing to allow any cabinet meetings to occur unless Judge Bitar's investigation is permanently ended. Lebanon's government was disastrously weak before, but now can't even hold a meeting. Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah is blaming Samir Geagea and the Lebanese Forces party with being responsible for the October 14 shootout, and is accusing Saudi Arabia of providing support and perhaps instigating the attack on Hezbollah protesters. This infuriated the Saudis, and after the airing of George Kordahi's interview, and his harsh criticisms of the Saudi Arabia led coalition in the war in Yemen, the Saudis withdrew their ambassador from Lebanon. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, George Kordahi, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Syria, Saad Hariri, Rafiq Hariri, Tarek Bitar, Beirut, Samir Geagea, Lebanese Forces Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-01-2021 *** 2-Nov-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma civil war gathers steam as ASEAN watches This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Myanmar's ethnic rebel militias fight junta's 'clearance operations' **** ASEAN meeting on zoom, with Myanmar disinvited (The Irrawaddy) When Myanmar's Buddhist army conducted genocidal "clearance operations" against the Muslim Rohingyas in southern Myanmar in 2016-2018, they met little resistance. In fact, the Rohingyas were like sheep being led to slaughter. The Buddhists burned down entire villages, tortured, beat and killed males, raped females, and shot down civilians who tried to flee. Except for an occasional terrorist act, the Rohingyas did nothing to fight back, but instead fled across the border into Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of them still live in refugee camps. As we described two weeks ago, the Myanmar junta has been massing troops in northwest Myanmar in Chin State, and has been talking about "clearance operations." Analysts at the United Nations see this as a sign that the junta is planning to do the same thing to the Chin people as they did to the Rohingyas. (See "24-Oct-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma junta massing troops in northwest, preparing for mass slaughter" ) The junta military, known as the Tatmadaw, have already begun "clearance operations" in earnest. Over the weekend, the military shelled a town in Chin State and burned down more than 160 buildings, including businesses and churches. The humanitarian aid agency Save the Children said its offices were in one of the buildings that was “deliberately set ablaze.” So they're repeating what they did to the Rohingyas in the past. Another thing they're repeating is to claim that the villagers set the fires and burned down their own homes and villages. Nobody was stupid enough to believe their claim that the Rohingyas burned down their own villages, and nobody is stupid enough to believe those claims now. However, we're seeing a big difference between the Rohingyas versus the Chin and other anti-junta rebels. While the Rohingyas simply fled or died like sheep, the anti-junta rebels are fighting back. According to one report, the Tatmadaw in June attacked the town of Pale in northwest Myanmar with the usual tactics, where soldiers looted homes, raped women and set a village on fire. But instead of simply fleeing, the villagers formed a militia of some 2,000 fighters, mostly farmers, and counterattacked, killing 400 troops, according to their claims, which are probably exaggerated. However, the point is that since the junta took power on February 1 in a coup, some 250 rebel groups have emerged, ranging from small urban underground cells to militias comprising thousands, according to reports. These rebels have not previously fought in wars, but their grandparents did, in the bloody Burma crisis civil war from 1948 to 1958. It's this historical memory that makes these rebels willing to fight, where the Rohingyas were not. As I've explained in the past, Myanmar entered a new generational Crisis era in 2016, 58 years after the end of the last crisis war. (See "24-Jun-21 World View -- Myanmar/Burma army fights new militia in Mandalay as civil war spreads" ) Since 2016, the Tatmadaw have become increasingly violent and belligerent within their own country. They committed genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas, and now they're turning to other ethnic groups within Myanmar. This will not end quickly. This is turning into a repeat of the ten-year Burmese crisis civil war that ran between 1948-1958, and involved multiple ethnic groups. History is now repeating itself. **** **** ASEAN takes on increased regional role after snubbing Myanmar **** ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Nations) has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, and they've always followed a strict policy of not criticizing the government of any of the others, even when the member governments committed atrocities. ASEAN held three days of summit meetings last week at which the biggest news was that Myanmar's military junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, was not invited to participate. This was a shocking move by the organization, which has previously made a point of not criticizing the internal actions of its member states. ASEAN members felt the need to take a stand in order to maintain relevance as a regional organization. There are several developments that seemed to make ASEAN increasingly marginalized. In 2012, ASEAN failed to issue a joint statement -- for the first time ever -- over disagreements on how to deal with China's claims to the disputed South China Sea. At that time, ASEAN's rotating chairmanship was held by Cambodia, whose leader is Hun Sen, who is a close ally of China. With Cambodia's help, China attempted to get ASEAN to endorse, or at least not object to, China's claims, but the Philippines objected, and so ASEAN took no position at all. ASEAN received a great deal of international criticism for failing to take a stand on China's illegal claims. (See "21-Nov-12 World View -- China is forced to back down diplomatically at an ASEAN meeting" ) More recently, ASEAN's role as a regional power bloc has been challenged by other alliances led by the United States. One is the so-called Quad, a bloc formed by Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, to counter the influence of China. The most recent is the ANKUS agreement (Australia, UK, and US), where the US and UK will help Australia build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. (This has triggered a major international diplomatic disagreement, since Australia had previously agreed to purchase diesel-powered submarines from France, and the ANKUS agreement was formed without notifying France.) Few people doubt that Myanmar is headed for a major civil war, with the danger that it will spill over into its neighbors, especially Thailand, India and China. As the civil war overwhelms the region, it remains to be seen whether ASEAN can be relevant. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing, Tatmadaw, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Chin State, Cambodia, Hun Sen, Philippines, ASEAN, Association of Southeast Nations, Quad, Australia, India, Japan, ANKUS, UK, France Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-06-2021 *** 7-Nov-21 World View -- China's grand geopolitical strategy threatened by Myanmar / Burma civil war This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** UN warns Myanmar / Burma of 'crimes against humanity' and threats of civil war **** Globe showing China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Switzerland's Federal Intelligence Service) For six weeks after the February 1 military coup in Myanmar, the army, known as the Tatmadaw, took a measured approach to the peaceful pro-democracy demonstrations. However, this was followed by "an uptick in violence and much more violent methods used to suppress the demonstrators," according to a UN report issued on Friday: <QUOTE>"We do feel now having observed the events and collected preliminary evidence that the facts show a widespread and systematic attack on the civilian population amounting to crimes against humanity. This was happening in different places at the same time, indicating to us it would be logical to conclude this was from a central policy. And, also, we saw that particular groups were targeted, especially for arrests and detentions that appear to be without due process of law. And this includes, of course, journalists, medical workers and political opponents."<END QUOTE> According to Nicholas Koumjian, the UN official who issued the report, there are more and more groups within Myanmar calling for a full civil war, which is not surprising, as the junta continues to escalate its violence. It's worth pointing out that the junta really couldn't care less what some United Nations agency claims. Myanmar is in the opening stages of a full-scale generational crisis civil war, and no outside political pressure can have much of an effect, just as a tsunami could not be stopped by a UN agency. In fact, none of this is particularly surprising. Myanmar entered a generational Crisis era in 2016, and the Buddhist army began by committing genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Rohingyas. So now, the army is performing the same "clearance operations" against the Chin people in northern Myanmar, and is preparing similar operations against other non-favored ethnic populations. **** **** Violence and crime along the China-Myanmar border **** According to China's state media, there are over 10,000 Chinese nationals in Myanmar waiting to cross the border into Ruili, China. Regulations and restrictions by China's government are permitting only about 100 people to cross the border into China each day. The restrictions were put in place in June because of the instability in Myanmar, and also because the delta variant of the Covid virus is spreading in China, and steps are being taken to block it. In addition, there's also been a sharp increase in cross-border crimes against China or Chinese citizns, such as telecommunications and internet fraud, gambling and money laundering. Chinese citizens living in northern Myanmar are being told register their identities, and to confess any crimes they've committed. Ruili is a city of 260,000 residents, and they've suffered almost 200 days under lockdown, because of the two factors -- China's Covid policy and the turmoil in Myanmar. According to the city's mayor: "The epidemic has ruthlessly looted [Ruili] over and over again, draining the city’s last trace of life and devouring the hope of its residents. Please save this hero city! Please pay attention to this beautiful border town!" There is also anti-Chinese violence in Myanmar far from the Chinese border. Many people in Myanmar blame China for supporting the junta in its violence against peaceful protesters, and Chinese factories and citizens in Yangon have been attacked in Yangon. The Chinese have deflected these accusations by blaming the attacks on incitement by the United States. China is actually pursuing a dual strategy in Myanmar. At the top level, and in the national media, China is not referring to a "coup," but to euphemisms like a "cabinet reshuffle." On the other hand, local media in China are referring to the violence in Myanmar following the "coup." **** **** Myanmar's threat to China's geopolitical strategy **** The coup and the threat of civil war in Myanmar have been a lot more than a mere annoyance to the Chinese. They represent a threat to China's grand geopolitical strategy for world domination. China has for years been supplying weapons to Myanmar's government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi until the February 1 coup. Since then, the Chinese have cautiously maintained good relations with the junta, because of Myanmar's part in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As I've written in the past, China's grand plan is that it will become the leader of the world within 5-10 years, and that almost all countries will gladly accept China's leadership. This goes beyond invading and annexing Taiwan. It also means that the 20+ border disputes that China has with India, Russia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan and other countries will be settled amicably in China's favor, and that includes China's control of the South China Sea. China's vision is like Isaiah 2:4, which says: "The Lord will judge between the nations and will settle disputes for many peoples. They will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation will not take up sword against nation, nor will they train for war anymore." This is exactly China's delusional vision, except that the role of the Lord will be played by the Chinese Communist Party. (Incidentally, that's why China is promising to stop increasing coal production by 2030.) According to the delusion, the only possible reason why this plan might fail is that the United States would be jealous of China's power and might come to the defense of Taiwan and Japan. That's why China is developing hypersonic and ballistic nuclear missiles, in order to attack the United States and bring about this millennium of peace. So now getting back to Myanmar, the major BRI project in Myanmar is the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is strategically essential to China's grand plan, since it provides a corridor for the transport of people and goods between China's Yunnan province and the Indian Ocean, through Myanmar's ports on the Andaman Sea. This is similar to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which connects China's Xinjiang province to Pakistan's Gwardar port, which China now controls. Both CMEC and CPEC are essential to China's delusional grand plan, and so the civil war in Myanmar represents a threat in two different ways -- because it could spill over into the population of China, and because it would threaten the strategically important CMEC. So China is taking a cautious approach to the Myanmar junta. The junta leaders couldn't care less what a United Nations agency says, but they might listen to what the Chinese say. However, what's going on in Myanmar is a generational crisis civil war, and the drive to fight the war is deeply organic and buried deep in the DNA of all the parties. The Chinese probably understand that because of their own deeply organic ethnic atrocities, so all they can do is hope that the Myanmar war will fizzle out, which is highly improbable in a generational Crisis era. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Min Aung Hlaing, Tatmadaw, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Chin State, Nicholas Koumjian, United Nations, Yangon, China, Ruili, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Isaiah 2:4, China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, CMEC, Yunnan province, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Xinjiang province Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment] Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-07-2021 *** 8-Nov-21 World View -- Pro- and Anti-Iran violence grows in Iraq as PM survives assassination attempt This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iraq's PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi escapes assassination from drone attacks **** Riots in Baghdad on Friday Iraq's prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi escaped an assassination attempt early Sunday morning, when three explosives-laden drones attacked his residence. The army shot down two of the drones, but a third reached its target and exploded, wounding six guards. Al-Kadhimi was unharmed. The residence is in Baghdad's heavily fortified "Green Zone." The drone attack follows widespread riots and protests on Friday, where Iran-backed militias were protesting the results of the October 10 parliamentary elections. The Iran-backed Fatah Alliance won only 17 seats, down from 48 seats in the previous parliament. Because of the Iran-backed protests, many people assume that the drone attacks were engineered by the pro-Iran militias, especially because Iran has used drone attacks to attack American bases along the border with Syria. However, the militias deny responsibility, and claim that the drone attacks were staged. So nobody has claimed responsibility for the failed drone attacks. **** **** Consequences of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) **** Iraq had two generational crisis wars during the last century, the 1920 Iraqi Revolution and the 1980s Iran-Iraq war. In both of those wars, the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias united behind the war effort against the enemy -- the British colonists in 1920 and the Iranians in the 1980s. The Iran-Iraq war (1980-88) was one of the longest and bloodiest wars of the 20th century. Chemical weapons and large-scale missile attacks were used. There were millions of casualties and refugees in both countries. ("Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (1-Apr-2007)") Today, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, so there is no chance of a renewal of the Iran-Iraq war. But the horrors of the war are still well-remembered, and it's still the objective of Iran to obtain political control of Iraq. Not surprisingly, these attempts have triggered anti-Iran protests in Iraq. Iran gained a great deal of popular support in Iraq in 2016-2018, when Iran trained and funded Shia militias called the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMFs), which played a major role in expelling ISIS from the country. So it was during the 2018 parliamentary elections that the Iran-backed Fatah Alliance gained 48 seats. **** **** Growing anti-Iran riots **** However, there were already widespread anti-Iran riots in September 2018 in Basra, which is in southern Iraq, adjacent to Iran. Protesters attacked or set fire to Iran-linked buildings and the Iranian consulate. They also attacked almost every office belonging to the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces. (See "9-Sep-18 World View -- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war" ) In October 2019, there were widespread anti-Iran political protests, this time in Baghdad, with protesters calling for political reforms, and end to corruption, and an end to sectarian system of government that guarantees government control to groups depending on religious sect. There was also a call to end foreign intervention, with a particular focus on Iran. So by the time of last month's parliamentary elections, the pro-Iranian militias had lost almost all of the good will they had gained from fighting ISIS, and the pro-Iranian Fatah political alliance lost two-thirds of the seats it had previously held. So the protests on Friday were quite different from the protests in October 2019. The latter protests had been led by students who were protesting corruption and Iranian influence. Friday's protests led by Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) militias, claiming that last month's parliamentary elections were rigged. **** **** Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrists **** The biggest winner in last month's parliamentary elections appears to be the Sadrists, the political party of Muqtada al-Sadr, who got 73 seats. Those with a long memory will recall that al-Sadr is a highly respected Shia cleric who opposed American intervention in Iraq during the 2000s. Today he strongly opposes all foreign intervention, including intervention by the US, Iran and Turkey. With or without the drone attack, there's a feeling that Friday's violent protests represent a turning point in Iraq. According to one analyst, Muqtada al-Sadr had been using the time since the October 10 election to negotiate with other political groups in order to form a governing coalition, and Friday's violent protests have forced those negotiations to end. There is a growing conflict between the Sunnis and the Sadrists on one side, and the pro-Iranian Fatah alliance on the other side. In the meantime, the Iranians are attempting to pressure the Iraqi government to demand with the withdrawal of American forces, just as the Americans had to withdraw from Afghanistan. This conflict will continue during the next few months, but it seems unlikely that America will be forced to withdraw from Iraq, as long as the Americans are seen as a countervailing force to Iran, especially in view of the disastrous results of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, Fatah Alliance, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMFs, Iraqi Revolution, Iran-Iraq war, Basra, Muqtada al-Sadr, Sadrists Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-08-2021 *** 9-Nov-21 World View -- Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Crisis grows on Poland-Belarus border over weaponized migrants **** Hundreds of migrants are trapped in a Belarus forest along the border with Poland (AFP) There is a growing possibility of military clashes across the border between Poland and Belarus, as Belarus attempts to push thousands of migrants into Poland. The policy is in revenge for sanctions imposed after Belarus illegally forced a passenger plan to land, in order to jail a reporter on the flight. Hundreds of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia are trapped in Belarus on the border with Poland, with thousands more migrants on the way to the border. Poland has installed a barbed-wire border fence to prevent the migrants from crossing, but the migrants are using wire cutters and shovels, supplied by the Belarus military, to cut the wire or dig up the fence. The Belarus military is standing behind the migrants, shooting their guns into the air, threatening any migrants who attempt to turn back from the border. Poland's military is standing on the other side of the barbed-wire fence, blocking any attempts by the migrants to cut the barbed wire and cross into Poland. Poland has deployed more than 12,000 soldiers to the border and a volunteer Territorial Defense force was put on alert, according to Poland's defense ministry. The European Union is describing the Belarus policy as "weaponizing migrants." Belarus has extended this policy from Poland to Lithuania and Latvia. **** **** Lukashenko's revenge following Ryanair plane forced landing **** The reason that these thousands of migrants are in Belarus is because they were solicited on the orders of dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus has been soliciting migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia to travel to Belarus, and has provided free air travel for them to do so. The migrants are promised an opportunity to cross the border into Poland or Germany. The current crisis began on May 23, when a Ryanair passenger plane with 126 passengers crossing Belarus air space was ordered by Belarus air traffic controllers to land in the Belarus capital city Minsk, supposedly because of a "potential security threat on board." The demand was backed up by a Belarus fighter jet. When the plane landed in Minsk, Belarus security forces boarded the plane and arrested a Belarus journalist, Raman Pratasevich, and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega. Pratasevich had been a vocal critic of Lukashenko, including accusations of rigged elections. After his arrest, Pratasevich was paraded in staged events. In June, the EU, US and UK imposed coordinated sanctions on Belarus. The EU has banned flights from Balavia and other Belarus airlines from its airports and airspace. The EU is also planning to sanction airlines that are cooperating with Belarus in flying migrants from the Mideast and Africa to Belarus. Already, Poland's defense ministry has thanked Iraq for having Belarus close its consulates in Baghdad and Irbil that were giving tourist visas to migrants. These sanctions have infuriated Lukashenko. He has retaliated and taken revenge by launching his program of weaponizing migrants -- transporting them from the Middle Ease and Africa, and then trying to push them into Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. **** **** Tensions grow on the border as Polish and Belarus forces face off **** Video from the border is showing a tense military standoff. Polish border guards have used teargas to push back people who tried to cut through the barbed wire. Gunshots were thought to come from Belarus border guards, shot in the air to frighten migrants and prevent them from moving away from the border. Hundreds of migrants have set up a tent city on the Belarus side of the border in a forested area, where they are essentially trapped. As more thousands of migrants are headed to the same area, it seems certain that there will be some kind of military confrontation on the border. There is the possibility that lives will be lost, or that a gunfight will break out between the border guards on the two sides. And with Russia supporting Belarus, it's possible that a clash could spread. Sources:
Related Articles: KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Middle East, Africa, Asia, Ryanair, Raman Pratasevich, Sofia Sapega, Balavia Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-11-2021 *** 12-Nov-21 World View -- Israel holds joint naval exercises with UAE, Bahrain, affirming Abraham Accords This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Bahrain, UAE, Israel, US hold joint exercises in Red Sea **** Signing ceremony for Abraham Accords at the White House on 15-Sep-2020, with officials from Bahrain, Israel, USA and UAE Israel's navy is taking part in joint maritime drills with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and the United States in the Red Sea. This is the first time that Israel's navy has publicly taken part in naval drills with Gulf Arab states. According to a statement by the US Naval Fifth Fleet, which is headquartered at a base in Bahrain: <QUOTE>"The five-day exercise includes at-sea training aboard amphibious transport dock ship USS Portland (LPD 27) focused on visit, board, search and seizure tactics. The training will enhance interoperability between participating forces' maritime interdiction teams. "It is exciting to see U.S. forces training with regional partners to enhance our collective maritime security capabilities," said Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of NAVCENT, U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces. "Maritime collaboration helps safeguard freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade, which are essential to regional security and stability."<END QUOTE> This statement doesn't say so, but the drills are aimed at Iran. In March and April, Iran and Israel allegedly attacked each others ships in the Persian Gulf with missiles and explosive. And the US Navy had to fire warning shots during encounters with Iranian vessels in the Gulf. **** **** After one year, the military drills affirm the continuation of Abraham Accords **** The Abraham Accords were announced on August 13, 2020, and signed by the participants in September. The Accords were negotiated by Donald Trump's administration between Israel and UAE, later joined by Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. Trump described the Accords as historic because they were the first public normalization of relations between Israel and an Arab country since the agreement with Jordan in 1994 and the agreement with Egypt in 1979. There was a lot of skepticism that the Accords would survive for long, but after a year they've even survived an 11-day war between Israel and Gaza. Israel has exchanged ambassadors with the other signatories, and has initiated trade relations with them. The joint naval exercises that Israel is holding with UAE and Bahrain indicate that the Accords are continuing as intended. One (simplistic) way of looking at the Mideast is that Israel is part of two major fault lines. One fault line is Sunni vs Shia. This conflict is pitting Iran versus the Arab Gulf nations, and Israel against its will has been drawn into this conflict by Iran. The Abraham Accords directly address this fault line. The other fault line is Israel vs Palestinians. This conflict comes out of the bloody 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. This fault line is completely unrelated to the Abraham Accords, and is still headed for conflict as much as before. As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bahrain, Israel, Iran, United Arab Emirates, UAE, US Naval 5th Fleet, Abraham Accords, Morocco, Sudan, Jordan, Egypt Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 11-24-2021 *** 25-Nov-21 World View -- Ahmaud Arberry verdict and the KKK Democrats This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Overwhelmingly white jury finds three white defendants guilty of murdering black Arberry **** Black murder victim Ahmaud Arberry and three convicted white murderers (Getty, toofab.com) Despite the hysteria and threats of violence from the left-wing loons on CNN and MSNBC, a jury of 11 white people and one black person convicted three white defendants of murder of a black person, Ahmaud Arberry. The leftist loons claimed that white jurors only vote in a racist, bigoted way, but instead they examined the evidence, and the evidence was overwhelming that Ahmaud Arberry had been murdered. So the court system worked correctly. **** **** The return of the Democrat KKK **** It was pretty clear that the Democrat KKK attitudes and hatred of blacks were still in place during the Arberry trial. A defense attorney stood up and asked for black pastors to be banned from the courtroom. A Southern judge last century would probably have granted that request, but today, the request is idiotic. Today, it takes a Democrat attorney steeped in KKK hatred to try it. Also, in closing arguments, the defense tried to appeal to the white jurors by saying that Arberry was no victim, and that he was in the neighborhood with "dirty khakis with no socks to cover his long dirty toenails." This would certainly have worked with the Democrats in the KKK in the last century, and would probably also have worked with many Democrats steeped in KKK hatreds today, but instead it appears to have badly backfired, even among the white Democrats on the jury. These acts by the defense attorneys were typical of the KKK in the last century, and they would have worked. They're less common today because they frequently backfire, even among many Democrats. But it's clear that racism and hatred of blacks still runs deep in the Democrat party. This dates back to the Civil War, and the fury that Democrats felt that the Republicans under Abraham Lincoln freed the slaves and won the war, causing the Democrats to create the KKK and the Jim Crow laws, and spend the next century lynching and killing blacks, and frequently using the epithet, "The South Shall Rise Again!" In fact, Joe Biden grew up in that hate-filled atmosphere, with a mentor of Democrat Party scion Robert Byrd, who was a Grand Cyclops in the KKK and a recruiter for the KKK. If Joe Biden had been on the Arberry jury, he might well have found the defendants innocent. Robert Byrd would almost certainly have done so. It's impossible to overstate what's going on - almost a resurgence of the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) in the Democrat party. You have thousands of blacks being killed in the streets of Chicago, LA, San Francisco, Baltimore, and other cities run by Democrats. Killing blacks is just as much the policy of Democrats today as it was in the last century. That's not true of all Democrats, just as it wasn't true of all Democrats in the last century, but it is true of a large segment of the Democrat party today. And, unfortunately, that segment of the Democrat party is now the loony left that is running the Democrat party, and they appear to want to re-fight the Civil War, in the hope of winning it this time and re-enslaving the blacks. **** **** Kyle Rittenhouse and George Floyd **** The evidence was overwhelming that Kyle Rittenhouse had fired only in self defense, and so he was found innocent. So the court system worked correctly. Derek Chauvin was found guilty last year of murdering George Floyd. So the court system worked correctly. These are two more examples of how the court and jury system worked correctly, so it makes no sense for the people on the loony left to want to destroy the American court system by packing the Supreme Court and by making every case about racial justice. **** **** CNN commentary **** On CNN, the Arberry commentary focused on the dog whistles and racial baiting that we described earlier to get the white people in the jury not to convict. CNN commentary on the Rittenhouse verdict was apoplectic. I saw the Jim Acosta show on CNN shortly after the Rittenhouse verdict. Recall that Acosta made a jackass of himself every day during the Trump administration by screaming stupid questions and epithets at Trump during press conferences, but being a jackass only made him a hero to the loony left, and made him a star at CNN. The contrast between Fox News and CNN was enormous. Analysts on Fox News almost universally said that finding Rittenhouse not guilty was the correct verdict, based on the overwhelming evidence. But they contrasted that to the event, which they said was a tragedy because two people had been killed, and they said that Rittenhouse was not a hero. But Acosta was unable to distinguish between those two things -- finding innocence and not being a hero. What I've found is that many people in general are unable to do fourth grade math or even second grade math, to the extent of being baffled by fourth grade percentage problems. AOC is a prime example of this, as she showed her stupidity in that issue over the Amazon HQ issue in 2019. AOC is one of the stupidest people in Washington, and the only people who are stupider than she is are her millions of followers in the Democrat party. It takes a certain grasp of logic to be able to do fourth grade math, and people who can't do fourth grade math should not be expected to distinguish between seeing Rittenhouse as not guilty and Rittenhouse as some kind of hero. Even worse, you have to be really stupid not to understand that a case where a white man shoots three white men is not a racial issue. Acosta is clearly that stupid. CNN attracts commentators who are too stupid to do fourth grade math. From what I've seen, Fox News attracts commentators who are intelligent enough to do fourth grade math. CNN headquarters is in Atlanta, where the Arberry trial was held. Atlanta is a hotbed of Democrat racists and idiots, which makes it the perfect location for CNN. Nonetheless, the brilliant American jury system, which is the best in the world and in the history of the world, came to the correct verdict. **** **** Loony left comments on the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict **** Anyone who watched the Kyle Rittenhouse trial could see that the innocence verdict was justified, but left-wing Democrat politicians and journalists became hysterical, and called for the virtual detruction of the American jury system. Many of the claims made in the following quotes were lies, made by people who knew they were lies, but who didn't care: Mayor Bill de Blasio: "This verdict is disgusting and it sends a horrible message to this country. Where is the justice in this? We can't let this go. We need stronger laws to stop violent extremism from within our own nation. Now is the time." Joy Reid, MSNBC: We knew, but it’s sometimes helpful to remind ourselves how America was designed to work. It continues to work as designed. We have learned again what is considered legal for *some* people to do in America. It’s helpful to know where you stand in your country. Be safe out there. Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes: "Over the last few weeks, many dreaded the outcome we just witnessed. The presumption of innocence until proven guilty is what we should expect from our judicial system, but that standard is not always applied equally. We have seen so many black and brown youth killed, only to be put on trial posthumously, while the innocence of Kyle Rittenhouse was virtually demanded by the judge." NY Governor Kathy Hochul: "Kyle Rittenhouse used an assault weapon to kill two people. This is not justice. If there was any question about why we need strong gun safety laws, this is your answer. This should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. We have a lot of work to do." Reverend Al Sharpton: "These continue to be dark days for black people killed at the hands of people that believe our lives do not matter. This verdict was not only outrageous and dangerous, it was also an obvious signal that encourages and notifies "vigilantes" that they can continue to use violence to assert their power, and more importantly that they are above the criminal justice system when they do. While it is disheartening that we take one step forward, then several steps back, let this be a reminder that our activism cannot take a backseat" Eric Adams, NYC Mayor-elect: "This decision is an indictment of irresponsible laws that make our society far more violent and unsafe under the guise of personal freedom and so called self-defense. It also sends an extremely dangerous message to those in our country who seek agendas of anarchy - often born in prejudice and ignorance - to wreak havoc in their communities and potentially murder their neighbors. We should not be shocked. We should be focused on swift and righteous action." Jumaane Williams, NYC Public Advocate: "This trial and the verdict it produced are clear and devastating representations of the way our country and our legal system view innocence and guilt, vigilantes and villains, race and the fight against racial injustice. A white seventeen year old killing protesters with a weapon of war is celebrated and acquitted. A black seventeen year old walking the community with a bag of Skittles is criminalized and murdered. Rep. Jerry Nadler: "This heartbreaking verdict is a miscarriage of justice and sets a dangerous precedent which justifies federal review by DOJ. Justice cannot tolerate armed persons crossing state lines looking for trouble while people engage in First Amendment-protected protest." Nikole Hannah-Jones, NY Times: "In this country, you can even kill white people and get away with it if those white people are fighting for Black lives. This is the legacy of 1619." George Takei, former Star Trek actor: "Justice denied is a body blow to our national psyche. On trial was not only a killer, but a system that continues to kill. Today that system defeated true justice, once again. But mark these words: We will never stop fighting for what is right and just." **** **** Darryl Brooks **** In the midst of all this, Darryl E. Brooks, a black male in late 30s, killed six people and injured 60 others by running them over intentionally with a car as they marched in the Christmas Parade in Waukesha, Wisconsin, on Sunday. Screen shot from video, just before Brooks' red SUV plows into parade marchers Brooks had previously been out on bail after pimping out a 16 year old girl who got pregnant, and for attempting to kill the mother of his baby by running her over with his car, and almost succeeding in killing her, and after numerous other felonies, dating back to 1999. He was out on bail because of a "woke" District Attorney who was following "woke" policies of not jailing convicted criminals. Brooks was let out of jail, and he repeated the crime of killing people by running over with this car, this time succeeding spectacularly. Examination of Darryl Brooks's media posts shows him to be a man filled with hatred for whites and women. Darryl Brooks tweet: 'The old white ppl ... knock dem TF out!' This reminds me of the e-mail messages found on Hunter Biden's laptop, which showed similar hatred of blacks. Like father, like son. Not surprisingly, CNN did not mention the Darryl Brooks case. **** **** Lessons learned **** The main lesson learned from all of these cases is that the brilliant American jury system works. As everyone points out, there are reforms to be made. In this case, there were many complaints about prosecuters in both the Arberry and Rittenhouse cases. But the American jury system, at its core, is the best for determining guilt or innocense. Another lesson to be learned is that racial hysteria doesn't always work, and shouldn't work. Race hysteria was raised in all the cases I've mentioned, and in the end, race didn't matter in any of them. A third lesson to be learned is the importance of video evidence. This is a relatively new development in jury trials, and it fits in well with the American jury system, since it provides a new and very powerful means for juries to assess what happened. The fourth lesson is that racism and hatred of blacks still runs deep in the Democrat party. Unfortunately, this is evident in the policies of Joe Biden and the Democrat party leadership. This is evident in policies that lead to the deaths of thousands of blacks in Democrat-run cities, and it's also evident in the drive for "Critical Race Theory," whose purpose if to victimize and marginalize blacks, as was done in the last century by the KKK and the Jim Crow Laws. So we would have to agree that there's a lot of work to be done to cure systemic racism, but that work has to be done almost exclusively within the Democrat party, especially its leadership. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Sources:
Related Articles: KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ahmaud Arberry, Kyle Rittenhouse, George Floyd, Darryl Brooks, CNN, Jim Acosta Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 11-25-2021 Beyond any question, Darryl Brooks is a very nasty person. Nasty people do horrible things. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 12-24-2021 *** 25-Dec-21 World View -- Merry Christmas! America plays Santa to keep Europe from freezing This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia cuts natural gas flows to Europe as possible Ukraine extortion ploy **** Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov. Putin may next be planning to invade the seaports Mariupol and Berdyansk, in order to create a land bridge from Russia to Crimea Merry Christmas, everyone! There's peace in Europe right now, but we don't know how long it will last. The drama is growing on Russia's border with Ukraine, where Russia now has over 120,000 troops, along with tanks and other military equipment, apparently in preparation for an imminent invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin says that the US and Nato are to blame for the hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with Ukraine, which is typical of the garbage that comes out every time Putin opens his mouth. Putin claims that there are no invasion plans, but Putin would say that, no matter what his plans. Putin is following the exact same playbook that he followed in 2014, when he illegally invaded eastern Ukraine, and he illegally invaded and annexed Crimea, after claiming he wouldn't do so. However, there's a very interesting and amusing sub-plot to the current drama, where American energy firms are playing Santa Claus to keep Europe from freezing to death, despite the efforts of Grinch Putin. Starting last weekend, flows of natural gas from Russia into Europe have been falling, depriving the Europeans of the natural gas needed to heat their homes. By Tuesday, European gas prices had spiked 40% to an all-time historic high. Freezing temperatures across Europe, low Russian gas supply, and low wind power generation in Germany all combined to send European and UK gas prices to new records. It's not known whether Russia capped gas flows because of a shortage of gas in Russia, or because Putin wants to use extortion to force the EU to accede to his demands on Ukraine. Part of the geopolitical situation is that Putin wants Germany to approve a new pipeline, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This is important because much of Russia's gas flow to Europe currently comes through a pipeline that passes through Ukraine, forcing Russia to pay commissions to Ukraine. Once the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is approved, then Russia can bypass Ukraine, and end the payments. **** **** American energy firms play Santa Claus and send an LNG flotilla to Europe **** The situation has pushed European gas prices way above Asian prices, and 14 times higher than prices in the US. As a result, a flotilla of at least 30 LNG (liquified natural gas) tankers from American energy firms have been or are being diverted from Asia to Europe. As a result, gas prices in Europe fell over 20% on Friday. The fall in gas prices was helped by forecasts of warmer weather on Friday through Monday. America's Santa Claus flotilla is expected to keep European gas prices down for several weeks, but it's a temporary fix. By summer, at the latest, gas prices are expected to spike once again. **** **** Germany and France fight over coal and nuclear energy **** Europe's energy problems are substantially exacerbated by the climate change chaos going on in Europe, which is pitting Germany and France against each other. France is first in the world in its reliance on nuclear energy. But France was forced to shut down two nuclear power plants last week, because of potential safety faults. The shut down reactors accounted for 10% of the nation's nuclear capacity, straining the nation's power grids in the cold weather. This has led a desperate president Emmanuel Macron to approve the firing up of six oil-fired power plants on Tuesday morning. Macron has previously stated his commitment to "green energy," meaning wind and solar, and so many people were shocked last month when he announced in a televised speech, "For the first time in decades [France] will relaunch the construction of nuclear reactors." Macron’s government argues that investments in nuclear power will allow France to keep energy costs in check, while meeting its climate goals. Macron's announcement infuriated the anti-nuclear activists in Germany. Germany has no such political disputes, because Germany is producing energy by burning coal, flooding the atmosphere with pollutants and emissions. Indeed, the country continues to raze villages to make way for new coal mines. Nuclear power plants produce "clean energy," with no carbon emissions, but activists claim that they're too dangerous. However, pro-nuclear activists point out that far more people die from air pollution in Germany than could ever die from a nuclear power plant meltdown. After the meltdown in 2011 of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, Germany has banned further nuclear development. Germany, Denmark and Austria are fiercely opposed to any further building of nuclear-power plants, or of designating nuclear energy as "climate-friendly." **** **** The outlook in Europe **** America's Santa Claus flotilla of LNG tankers may keep the Europeans from freezing this winter. At least, the LNG shipments will help keep gas prices down so that Europeans can afford to heat their homes. But the big question in Europe is Putin's apparent plans to invade Ukraine. He claims that he has no plans to do so, but he would say that no matter what he plans, and he keeps massing more and more troops and military equipment on the border. So it would be quite surprising if Europe got through the next few months unscathed. Sources:/
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, Santa Claus, Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Germany, France, Emmanuel Macron, Japan, Fukushima, Denmark, Austria Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 12-25-2021 I would say that restriction of natural gas is a warning-"Don't interfere in Russia's plan for Ukraine." And, of course, not to interfere in Russia's geopolitical plans in general. Reminds me of the recent move by France to with hold electricity from the Brits. As well as the OPEC oil embargo. I won't be surprised if we see more of these tactics in the years to come. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-07-2022 *** 8-Jan-22 World View -- Kazakhstan protests threaten Russia-China stability in Central Asia This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kazakhstan president orders shoot to kill peaceful protesters without warning **** Kazakhstan map (BBC) Protests began in western Kazakhstan over the weekend, and were triggered by the removal of government fuel subsidies and the resulting price rises. However, the protests spread quickly, across the country and over numerous other issues related to government corruption. The result is the worst riots since the country became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union Empire in 1991. Kazakhstan was ruled since independence by a dictator, ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev, who selected his successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in 2019. Nazarbayev has remained head of the country's Security Council after stepping down as president in 2019. Both Nazarbayev and Tokayev were and are unpopular and thought to be corrupt. There were widespread anti-government farmer riots in 2016 when the government announced a "land reform" program that would have permitted China's agriculture businesses to buy up huge tracts of Kazakh land. Because of the protests, the "reforms" were never implemented. (See "22-May-16 World View -- Kazakhstan farmers riot over fears of encroachment from China" ) In the last week, protesters have attacked a military barracks, and also brought down a monument of the former president Nazarbayev. The 2016 protests were brutally oppressed by Nazarbayev, and now the new protests, which are far more widespread and dangerous, are being suppressed by Tokayev, who has issued a "shoot to kill without warning" order to the police. Dozens of people have already been killed. **** **** Russia leads five CSTO nations in sending troops into Kazakhstan **** President Tokayev has declared a state of emergency, and has shut down the internet and other communications. At the invitation of president Tokayev, Russian troops are now entering Kazakhstan to help quell the protests. It's not clear what these troops will do in a country as enormous as Kazakhstan, but presumably they'll concentrate on Almaty, the largest city. It's not just Russian troops. Tokayev made the request through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-led military alliance which was formed in the 1990s as a counterweight to Nato. This is the first time that the CSTO is deploying troops on foreign soil since the organization was formed. So there are now troops from five foreign countries on Kazakh soil: Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Tajijistan and Kyrgyzstan. According to the CSTO charter, one CSTO member may send troops to another member country only in the case of "foreign interference." No details of this "foreign interference" have been provided, but I heard one report that both Russian and Kazakh officials are blaming "Muslim jihadist terrorists," without providing evidence. According to several reports that I've heard, this deployment of foreign troops is not very popular with anyone. Many Kazakhs are opposed to any foreign troops on their soil. The Armenians are really furious that Russia didn't help them out in the Nagorno-Karabakh war with Azerbaijan, and now Armenian troops are being deployed to Kazakhstan. The Tajiks are unhappy with the deployment of their soldiers, and the Kyrgyzstan government is so concerned about the situation that they've closed their border with Kazakhstan. There is one region of Kazakhstan that's certain to be under the protection of Russian troops, and that's the city of Baikonur which is the home of Baikonur spaceport. All Russian space flights are launched from Baikonur spaceport. According to Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the Russian state space agency, "Today it was calm at Baikonur. The branches of Roscosmos’ enterprises, law enforcement agencies, city services and organizations are working as normal. The crisis center set up at Baikonur’s administration is fully controlling the situation in the city. Armed security at the cosmodrome’s key facilities has been boosted." While all this is going on in Kazakhstan, Russia is also continuing its buildup of troops along the border of Ukraine. Will Russia invade Ukraine again this month? We'll have to wait and see. **** **** China versus Russia **** Kazakhstan is a mostly Sunni Muslim country, with Kazakhs having the same Turkic ethnicity as the Turks, the Azerbaijanis, and the Chinese Uighurs. Kazakhs in China's Xinjiang province (East Turkestan) are subjected to the same torture, beatings, sterilization and enslavement as the Uighurs. Kazakhstan is a kind of poster-child for China's use of money to gain compliance for the worst atrocities since the Nazis in the 1930s. Kazakhstan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim countries are simply ignoring China's torture and enslavement of their Turkic brothers, because China is bribing them to do so. Nonetheless, it's hard to escape the view that Russian troops in Kazakhstan are less about unnamed Muslim jihadists and more about China. Kazakhstan is rich in oil, gas, copper, and other commodities, and China has invested billions of dollars since independence to buy them. Furthermore, as I've described in the past, China has 20 border disputes with its neighbors. This includes claiming 34,000 sq km of Kazakhstan's territory, and also claiming much of Russia's Far East, including Vladivostok, the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet, (See "5-Jul-20 World View -- India's list of China's border disputes and disagreements" ) As I've described many times, Russia and China are historic enemies, at war most recently in the 1960s. They currently have a kind of "marriage of convenience" in opposition to the United States and West, who oppose their respective threatened invasions of Ukraine and Taiwan. But it won't be long before the historic differences turn to new disagreements and war. Russia's sending troops into Kazakhstan, with little or no information about their mission, may well be first step in that development. Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kazakhstan, Almaty, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, China, Russia, Soviet Union, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Armenia, Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO, Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan, Baikonur spaceport, Ukraine, Turkey, Vladivostok Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 01-08-2022 During the Iranian Revolution President Carter warned Shah Reza Pahlavi that, whatever he did, he was to never order any violent attacks upon peaceful protesters. In 1989, the Romanian Revolution became a trap for Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu because they gave the Securitate (secret police) and the Romanian Army orders to shoot to kill. The Army turned against the Securitate and effectively cleared the streets for peaceful protesters. Meanwhile neighboring states (including the Soviet Union) closed escape routes for the Ceausescus. Supposedly they were headed to Iran, but that had three problems for them. First, their plane was overloaded, so had it gotten out of Romania it would have likely crashed into the Black Sea. Well, at least their loot was saved. Second, they would have been arrested in Turkey, one country they would have to get through to get through Iran if they wanted to stay clear of the Soviet Union, and they would have been returned to Romania for judgment. Third, the Soviet Union would have arrested them and returned them to Romania for judgment. One gets at most a few days of spurious safety for having the troops and secret police shooting peaceful protesters. Most likely either the troops turn on one. When the revolution has the Army on its side, the revolution is over. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-10-2022 ** 09-Jan-2022 World View: Kazakhstan: Never waste a crisis and Follow the money
When I wrote my article on Kazakhstan, one of the great mysteries was Vladimir Putin's warp speed response to the request by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, through CSTO, for Russian troops. Putin okayed the request with lightning speed and, before you knew it, some 3,500 troops mostly from Russia but also from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Armenia, were pouring into Kazakhstan. The request was justified by claims of terrorism sponsored by an unnamed foreign country. But there were many unanswered questions. What was the unnamed country? What was the urgency in responding to the request -- which, incidentally, was unprecedented -- when normally a similar request would take days or weeks of negotiations? Since the nationwide protests were obviously organic, and the country is enormous, what was the mission of the 3,500 troops? Some, but not all, of those questions are now being answered. The nationwide protests were triggered by ending fuel subsidies and resulting increases in fuel prices. The protests spread and became increasingly violent and destructive, creating a crisis. I have not seen any reports that say that the fuel subsidies were ended with the purpose of causing violent protests and a crisis, or whether the protests were an unintended consequence. So apparently the saying "Never let a crisis go to waste" is coming into play. The supporters of Nursultan Nazarbayev. the former president, are apparently being accused of using the protest crisis as a means to engineer a coup, and bring them back to power in some form. This resulted in the subsequent actions. Tokayev fired Nazarbayev from his remaining government role, chairman of the security council, and he fired Karim Masimov, a Nazarbayev loyalist, from his position as head of security services, accusing Masimov of treason. That's the context in which the Russian-led CSTO forces poured into Kazakhstan. They were there to make sure that Tokayev remained in power, and was not brought down by a coup. They are also there to guarantee that Vladimir Putin has a great deal to say in what the government of Kazakhstan does in the future. So Putin may not be able to re-create the old Soviet Empire, but he's doing what he can in Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan to pull pieces of it back together when possible. Another angle to this story is to "Follow the money!" Many members of Nazarbayev's family, and many of his business cronies, have become billionaires as a result of Nazarbayev's 30 year dictatorship. Many of last week's violent protests were directed specifically at Nazarbayev and his family and cronies for 30 years of corruption. Members of Nazarbayev's family apparently have extensive property holdings in Britain. Indeed, there are reports that Nazerbayev’s daughter Nazarbayeva and her son are the owners of 221b Baker Street, the fictional home of the character Sherlock Holmes. So this story is far from over. Russian troops are now "protecting" president Tokayev and his ministers, and Putin may be partially running the country, but the fate of Nazarbayev's billionaires has yet to be decided. A word about American involvement. Whenever anything happens anywhere in the world, many people assume that it's because the American administration did something, or didn't do something, or said something, or didn't say something. In this case, even the Chinese press blamed American involvement for the protests. In fact, many, many, many things, good and bad, go on in the world, driven by people living their own lives day to day, who couldn't care less what the American president said or did. I've written about this many times in the past. Blaming America for everything may feel good, but it rarely makes sense. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, most things happen in the world because of generational changes, ethnic differences, class differences, jealousy, passion, or sociopathy, no matter what America does. In this case, fuel subsidies were reduced, fuel prices rose, there were protests, the protests spread across the country and encompassed other issues, especially the corruption of the Nazarbayev family, leading to threats of a coup. and Russian intervention. The American administration had nothing to do with this, and could not have engineered it with anything but a magic wand. ** 8-Jan-22 World View -- Kazakhstan protests threaten Russia-China stability in Central Asia ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e220108.htm#e220108 **** Sources: -- Kazakhstan / Nursultan Nazarbayev | The ‘old man’ and the unrest https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/nursultan-nazarbayev-the-old-man-and-the-unrest/article38193186.ece (The Hindu, 9-Jan-2022) -- Kazakhstan: Ex-security services chief and Nazarbayev ally arrested https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-ex-security-services-chief-and-nazarbayev-ally-arrested (Eurasianet, 8-Jan-2022) -- Kazakhstan’s Tycoons–Including Members Of Nazarbayev Family–Shed Billions As Stocks Plunge https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddawkins/2022/01/07/kazakhstans-tycoonsincluding-members-of-nazarbayev-familyshed-billions-as-stocks-plunge/ (Forbes, 7-Jan-2022) -- Kazakhstan explainer: Who’s in, who’s out as Tokayev tries to take back control? https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-explainer-whos-in-whos-out-as-tokayev-tries-to-take-back-control (Eurasianet, 6-Jan-2022) RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 01-18-2022 *** 19-Jan-22 World View -- Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Major escalation in Yemen war as Houthis attack UAE with missiles and drones **** Site of Saudi-led air strike in Sanaa on 18-Jan (Reuters) The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on Monday evening attacked targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including airports in Dubai and in an oil refinery in Musaffah, as well as "a number of important and sensitive Emirati sites and facilities," with five missiles and a number of drones. Three people were killed. Early on Tuesday, warplanes from Saudi Arabia, UAE's coalition partner, attacked Houthi camps and strongholds in Sanaa, Yemen's capital city, including he home of a high-ranking Houthi military official, including his wife and son. About 20 people were killed, according to the Houthis. The Yemen war began in 2015, when Houthi rebels from northwest Yemen took control of the capital city Sanaa, and seized the international airport. In response, warplanes from a mostly Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia bombed Houthi rebel targets. The war escalated substantially in November 2017, when the Houthis launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran, that reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800 km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with its own escalation, a blockade of all of Yemen's land, sea and air ports. The Houthis increased their missile attacks on Saudi cities, and then in June 2018, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a 'catastrophic' assault on the highly strategic Port Hodeidah in Yemen. The objective was to cut off supplies of Iranian weapons to the Houthis, as well as a source of income. The battle over Port Hodeidah continued for years, until November 2021, when the Houthis scored a complete takeover of the port, marking an important turning point in the war. Tuesday's Houthi attack on the UAE targets with drones and missiles marks another turning point. **** **** Iran's support for the Houthis **** Since the Yemen war began in 2015, it's been seen as largely a proxy war between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. In the wars between Sunnis and Shias the following the death of the prophet Mohammed, one Shia sect was known as the Saydis or "fivers," because of their allegiance to the fifth Imam descendant. Most Shias, including the Persians, had allegiance to the twelth Imam descendant, and so they are sometimes called "twelvers." The Zaydis have become today's Houthis. Despite this theological dispute, the fivers and the twelvers identify with each other as not-Sunni Shias, and so the Iranians are supporting the Houthis in Yemen in a proxy war against the Arab Sunnis. (See my book "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy," for the history of Islam and the Sunni-Shia split.) Iran is denying that they've had anything to do with Tuesday's attack by the Houthis on the UAE. However, this claim has little credibility since the Houthis have no ability to develop and manufacture the drones and missiles that were used in the attack. It seems likely that the Houthis' recent takeover of Port Hodeidah has enabled the Houthi attack, because Iran can use the port to smuggle drones and missiles and other weapons to the Houthis. Two weeks ago, a UN group announced that it would be investigating whether the port has been militarized According to Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy to Yemen: <QUOTE>"The accusations of the militarization of the ports of Hodeidah are worrying and the threats of attacking them are equally disturbing given that these ports are a lifeline for many Yemenis. [The UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement was] closely monitoring the situation in the ports and has requested as part of its mandate to undertake an inspection."<END QUOTE> Well, we can hardly wait until the UN report comes out. These UN committees always produce useful results, don't they. **** **** The purpose of the Houthi attack on the UAE **** What is the purpose of the Houthi attack on UAE targets? Here are some possibilities:
Each one of these objectives is likely to backfire. Houthi Yemeni military expert Brigadier-General Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi was interviewd on Monday by Russia Today TV, and said the following: <QUOTE>"We sent a message [with the Abu Dhabi drone strike], and the UAE should take this message seriously. The UAE is not like Saudi Arabia, which is bigger in size, and which can perhaps, take the hit and absorb the shock. The UAE is a country made of cardboard and glass. ... The second thing is that we hope to receive Iranian weapons, and to have Iranian experts with us. [Our enemies] have Zionist experts, as well as American and French experts, They have gathered all of the world's vagabonds in their command center and in the battlefield. ... We have the power, the will, and the determination to strike in the UAE and in Saudi Arabia. If it turns out that the Americans attacked in Yemen, or if they declare that they did, we will target the American interests wherever they may be. Wherever they may be!"<END QUOTE> Right now, there's a bit of a lull, as both the UAE and the Houthis decide what to do next. If this is as much of a turning point as it seems, then we should see some additional military reactions soon. As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy -- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018 Paperback: 153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00 Complete Table of Contents https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Supremacy-Obsession-Generational/dp/1732738610/ Sources:
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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Iran, Houthis, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Port Hodeidah, Zaydis, Fivers, Twelvers, Hans Grundberg, Abdul Ghani Al-Zubaidi Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |