+- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum)
+-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html)
+--- Forum: Theory Related Political Discussions (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-14.html)
+--- Thread: Gray Champion Predictions (/thread-5252.html)
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - User3451 - 07-09-2020
Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others
Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Bob Butler 54 - 07-10-2020
(07-09-2020, 01:57 PM)TnT Wrote: If we use the Model as guidance, and assume that all cards are on the table during this Crisis, and that it could go either way, and if it happened to swing to the right, Bolton could be The Man.
Thing is, the crisis has always put in the new values and rendered the old obsolete. Kings, slaves, isolationism, liaises faire all become obsolete. That means things can't swing either way.
In the US in normal times given the slavery compromise gives the conservatives the advantage. They block problem solving, meaning the list of things that must change builds up. Addressing the crisis problems means change. How could you claim to have solved the current crisis without solving the coronavirus and reforming violent racist police? Crisis scale problems tend just not to be solvable by remaining the same.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Bob Butler 54 - 07-10-2020
(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others
Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one
But they tend to personify the new values. They set an example for the new culture. It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values. They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change. A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.
Hmm. My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons. Perhaps...
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Bob Butler 54 - 07-10-2020
(07-09-2020, 07:50 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Anybody who pushes for an active foreign policy-any sort of activist foreign policy-will have to figure out where the support will come from. Difficult at best, if the mood of the country is isolationist.
And I would not assume that the country is eager to get into another war.
Agreed. Bush 43's wars may not have been crisis wars, but the indefinite length of the so called war on terror along with the stress that it put on the military have made us really reluctant to put boots on the ground. For years a unit who had just seen a deployment almost immediately had to get ready for another deployment. The result of the wars was quite arguably worse than what was there before. Neo Colonialism is not a win.
I could see a sea war should China start something with Japan, Taiwan or the East China Sea, but you would have trouble campaigning on starting such a war.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Tim Randal Walker - 07-10-2020
Perhaps a certain war weariness will help to keep us out of a full blown Crisis war this time around.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - User3451 - 07-10-2020
(07-10-2020, 12:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others
Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one
But they tend to personify the new values. They set an example for the new culture. It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values. They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change. A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.
Hmm. My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons. Perhaps...
By that logic Bernie and Biden are disqualified as well, since Bernie espouses early 20th century socdem values and Biden espouses midcentury conservative Democrat values.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Bob Butler 54 - 07-10-2020
(07-10-2020, 09:38 AM)User3451 Wrote:(07-10-2020, 12:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others
Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one
But they tend to personify the new values. They set an example for the new culture. It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values. They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change. A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.
Hmm. My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons. Perhaps...
By that logic Bernie and Biden are disqualified as well, since Bernie espouses early 20th century socdem values and Biden espouses midcentury conservative Democrat values.
Grey Champion is really a title best awarded with 20 20 hindsight, anyway. This is why Bernie was not chosen, and we are disappointed in advance with Biden. You don't preen with pride claiming comparison with Lincoln, FDR and Churchill until you have walked the walk. Either Bernie or Biden would pick up the accolades if they managed to successfully navigate the crisis problems, but until they have done it the title should wait in reserve.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Bob Butler 54 - 07-10-2020
If by my definition the grey champion title goes to the one who best personifies the new values and works to make them generally accepted, you would have to go with New York's Governor Cuomo. It is early days and he is in a lesser position, and he made the mistake of watching China early, not Europe, but if you are listening for the scientific virus answer he has stepped up as much as anyone.
Still waiting on Biden's vice peresidential pick.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Eric the Green - 07-10-2020
(07-10-2020, 06:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If by my definition the grey champion title goes to the one who best personifies the new values and works to make them generally accepted, you would have to go with New York's Governor Cuomo. It is early days and he is in a lesser position, and he made the mistake of watching China early, not Europe, but if you are listening for the scientific virus answer he has stepped up as much as anyone.
Still waiting on Biden's vice peresidential pick.
If he picks Susan Rice, he will pick the only candidate among his chosen field of candidates who can fulfill this role.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - User3451 - 07-10-2020
(07-10-2020, 06:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If by my definition the grey champion title goes to the one who best personifies the new values and works to make them generally accepted, you would have to go with New York's Governor Cuomo. It is early days and he is in a lesser position, and he made the mistake of watching China early, not Europe, but if you are listening for the scientific virus answer he has stepped up as much as anyone.
Still waiting on Biden's vice peresidential pick.
It's almost certain he will pick a conservative Democrat
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Bob Butler 54 - 07-11-2020
(07-10-2020, 09:49 PM)User3451 Wrote:(07-10-2020, 06:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: If by my definition the grey champion title goes to the one who best personifies the new values and works to make them generally accepted, you would have to go with New York's Governor Cuomo. It is early days and he is in a lesser position, and he made the mistake of watching China early, not Europe, but if you are listening for the scientific virus answer he has stepped up as much as anyone.
Still waiting on Biden's vice peresidential pick.
It's almost certain he will pick a conservative Democrat
I suspect that would be a poor choice. Crises bring on very basic transformations. A conservative anything wouldn't be up to it, would make for a vibrant and noisy awakening. We will see how the strong problems of a crisis effect the people involved. Do great men make great decisions to change the culture, or do the times demand great changes to solve problems that must be solved? It is said that in Chinese the character for crisis and opportunity is the same. Will the mediocre man or the crisis time have more effect on each other?
Still to early to call.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - GeekyCynic - 07-11-2020
I think the fact that Biden and Sanders are both Silent disqualifies them from being a GC.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Bob Butler 54 - 07-11-2020
(07-11-2020, 03:09 AM)GeekyCynic Wrote: I think the fact that Biden and Sanders are both Silent disqualifies them from being a GC.
I vaguely remember that some prior obvious grey champions are technically out of the theory's prescribed official dates. If they solve the crisis problems, I would give them the title anyway.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - David Horn - 07-11-2020
(07-10-2020, 12:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others
Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one
But they tend to personify the new values. They set an example for the new culture. It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values. They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change. A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.
Hmm. My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons. Perhaps...
Your spell checker is wise. We really need a woman leader right now. What needs doing is structurally significant, and the Patriarchy is not a change message. A woman as VP is better than nothing, but we missed our opportunity to select a qualified woman for the head job, when plenty applied. Where is our Jacinda Adhern?
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - David Horn - 07-11-2020
(07-11-2020, 03:26 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(07-11-2020, 03:09 AM)GeekyCynic Wrote: I think the fact that Biden and Sanders are both Silent disqualifies them from being a GC.
I vaguely remember that some prior obvious grey champions are technically out of the theory's prescribed official dates. If they solve the crisis problems, I would give them the title anyway.
This is certainly true. Actions will determine the result. To be honest, Trump is a potential GC. Neither of us appreciate the change he wants to create, but he's all change, that's for sure.
Biden is still a huge question mark. He was selected by black South Carolinians to be, by their own admission, most acceptable to white people. Then COVID took charge. That's a bizarre path to the job, especially now.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - User3451 - 07-11-2020
(07-11-2020, 06:16 AM)David Horn Wrote:It doesn't matter if the VP is a woman. It shouldn't have any bearing. Just because someone is a man has nothing to do with "the patriarchy"(07-10-2020, 12:57 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(07-09-2020, 08:18 PM)User3451 Wrote: Bernie, Biden and Trump are all grey champions. There could be others
Grey champions are neither good or bad, and don't need to be president obviously, and there are more than one
But they tend to personify the new values. They set an example for the new culture. It is entirely possible to have several people doing that to various degrees, but Buchanan, Hoover and Trump are not examples of demonstrating the new values. They show why the old values are obsolete and have to change. A necessary role, perhaps, but it is very different from the grey champion's role.
Hmm. My spell checker suggested the last role should be grey tampons. Perhaps...
Your spell checker is wise. We really need a woman leader right now. What needs doing is structurally significant, and the Patriarchy is not a change message. A woman as VP is better than nothing, but we missed our opportunity to select a qualified woman for the head job, when plenty applied. Where is our Jacinda Adhern?
It should be the best candidate.
How many qualified people were there really? Besides Warren, Biden and Sanders?
Hopefully Biden chooses Warren. If he goes with Harris we will go back to the bush/Clinton 3T
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - TnT - 07-11-2020
(07-11-2020, 06:48 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is certainly true. Actions will determine the result. To be honest, Trump is a potential GC. Neither of us appreciate the change he wants to create, but he's all change, that's for sure.If the Trumpists prevail, the 1T "consensus" could indeed be authoritarianism.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - David Horn - 07-12-2020
(07-11-2020, 11:59 AM)TnT Wrote:(07-11-2020, 06:48 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is certainly true. Actions will determine the result. To be honest, Trump is a potential GC. Neither of us appreciate the change he wants to create, but he's all change, that's for sure.
If the Trumpists prevail, the 1T "consensus" could indeed be authoritarianism.
They maybe a minority, but they know how to march. I've never been a Democrat though I vote that way almost all the time. It's all a matter of conviction and spine. This time, they better find a way to get both.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - David Horn - 07-12-2020
(07-11-2020, 11:48 AM)User3451 Wrote: It doesn't matter if the VP is a woman. It shouldn't have any bearing. Just because someone is a man has nothing to do with "the patriarchy"
It should be the best candidate.
How many qualified people were there really? Besides Warren, Biden and Sanders?
Hopefully Biden chooses Warren. If he goes with Harris we will go back to the bush/Clinton 3T
You fail to see the immense power of symbolism. This isn't really about who can row the boat better. It's about who can stand at the helm and inspire others to row as if their lives depend on it.
RE: Gray Champion Predictions - Bob Butler 54 - 07-12-2020
(07-11-2020, 11:59 AM)TnT Wrote:(07-11-2020, 06:48 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is certainly true. Actions will determine the result. To be honest, Trump is a potential GC. Neither of us appreciate the change he wants to create, but he's all change, that's for sure.If the Trumpists prevail, the 1T "consensus" could indeed be authoritarianism.
I am dubious. During the 3T, there is supposed to be a intense and seemingly endless debate which defines and refines the old and the new values. This time, the red is the old and the blue the new. There is a bad president that demonstrates why the old values are really really bad. There is a grey champion who then leads in implementing the new. From the way the crisis issues are going, I don't see the old values winning out. Trump is apt to join Buchanon and Hoover in showing a failure of the old values. We'll see if the power of the times forces Biden to grow.