Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: 29-Aug-17 World View -- China and India pull back from Doklam, while North Korea shar - Warren Dew - 08-29-2017 (08-29-2017, 01:35 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(08-29-2017, 01:23 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(08-29-2017, 12:09 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(08-28-2017, 10:02 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: > China and India made surprising announcements on Monday that they North Korea has on the order of ten nuclear missiles, China has hundreds, and Russia has over a thousand. If the numbers were the main thing that mattered, you'd be most worried about Russia. Yet, you ignore Putin just like people ignored Hitler. It makes sense to focus on North Korea right now because that's the problem that can be solved - but only for a short time. If we got North Korea to give up its nukes, that would set an example on proliferation. Iran wouldn't try to get them, we could start putting pressure in Pakistan and India, and eventually we might even pressure China, France, England, and Russia to give up theirs. Putin can see that possibility, which is why he is doing everything possible to prevent the US from taking care of the North Korean nuclear problem. China can probably see it too, but they are actually close enough to be severely threatened by North Korea, so they figure any future steps the US might take can be dealt with later. The fact that there are bigger threats around in the form of Russia and China does not mean we shouldn't bother to deal with the lesser threats like North Korea. 30-Aug-17 World View -- Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy - John J. Xenakis - 08-29-2017 *** 30-Aug-17 World View -- Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals **** Anti-Brexit protestors on June 25 of last year in London (Getty) Britain's opposition Labor party made a dramatic policy U-turn on Saturday on the terms of Brexit negotiations. The new position leaves open the possibility that that when Britain formally leaves the European on March 29, 2019, the terms of the UK-EU relationship will be essentially unchanged for years, and possibly forever. This could effectively nullify Brexit, for all practical purposes. Britain's Tory government, headed by prime minister Theresa May, has been struggling to define policies for the UK-EU relationship after March 2019, and has had little success so far. The intention is that there will be a "transitional period" for two years, during which further negotiations will take place on the terms of the final separation. There are hardliners on both the UK and EU negotiating sides that are going to make any agreement very difficult. The terms of any agreement will have to be approved by all 27 remaining EU members, by the UK government, and possibly by the UK parliament. It seems unlikely that any agreement whatsoever will be reached on anything, at least until late in 2018, when the time is so late and the situation so desperate that the parties will be forced to agree to something. Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary of the shadow government of Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn, published a proposal on Saturday that the UK negotiate a transitional deal with the EU that preserves the UK's continued membership in the EU single market, accepting all the terms of that membership, including free movement of people through Europe, including the UK, and accepting the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice as having a higher priority than the UK's own courts. These are exactly the policies that drove the passage of the Brexit referendum -- blocking immigrants from reaching Britain, and giving Britain jurisdiction over its own laws -- so the Labor proposal effectively negates Brexit, especially if the Labor transitional deal lasts more than two years. According to some analysts, this proposal could run into trouble because it will be violating the terms of rules for exiting the EU described in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, and therefore could be rejected by the European Court of Justice. The Germany parliament may also oppose the proposal. The negotiations this fall are expected to be extremely bitter and vitriolic on all sides. Guardian (London, 26-Aug) and Telegraph (London) and EuroIntelligence **** **** UK's Tory government struggles with Brexit policy positions **** The proposal by Labor is very simple, because it says that everything should be as before, with all the same privileges, rules and restrictions of the existing relationship. Theresa May has a much more difficult problem. A proposal that honors the spirit of Brexit requires that every minute law and regulation adopted by the EU and the UK over a period of decades be renegotiated. In fact, the EU and UK sides can't even agree which policies are to be negotiated first. The Tories are insisting that the terms of the trade relationship, or "customs union," between the UK and EU be agreed as quickly as possible, so that businesses on both sides will be able to plan for March 2019. The UK says that they can't agree on other things until they've determined what the trade relationship will be. The EU negotiators say the opposite. They can't agree on the trade relationship until the terms of the "divorce" have been settled. There are three questions that the EU negotiators say have to be resolved first:
The trade issue, when negotiations finally begin, is liable to just as contentious. Theresa May would like an agreement of a "customs union" that would allow for "frictionless trade" between the UK and EU, with minimum rules and custom duties. She would also like for UK to be able to begin negotiating trade deals with other countries, such as the US and China. The problem with that proposal is that it makes a customs union impossible. The idea behind the EU single market is that anyone can trade with anyone else in the customs union with no tariffs, but imports from other countries could be taxed to protect European agriculture and other products. But if the UK is part of the EU single market, and the UK can also make its own deals with other countries, then other countries could then gain tariff-free trade with the entire EU simply by trans-shipping all goods through the UK. Business Insider (16-Feb) and UK government Brexit position papers Related Articles
**** **** Ireland calls Theresa May's Irish border proposal 'delusional' **** Britain's government two weeks ago published its position paper on the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland (southern Ireland), which is an independent nation, but a member state of the EU. The only land border between the UK and other EU members is the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Ireland and Northern Ireland have an extremely bloody history, largely fought between the indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders. (See "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again" ) During the 1960s-90s, in a period known as "the Troubles," there was a great deal of violence in Northern Ireland. It was mostly resolved by the "Good Friday agreement" in 1998, and part of that agreement is that the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland must be completely open. If the UK leaves the EU under Brexit, then the border in Ireland would be a border between the UK and EU, subject to the usual tariffs and customs rules. Theresa May is proposing some kind of "invisible electronic border" between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but Ireland's EU Commissioner Phil Hogan says that this is delusional: > [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that there's a high level of delusion in > London at the moment about what is required to be done. > > But if there is an appetite for a pragmatic and reasonable outcome > to a free-trade agreement, well then membership of the customs > union would make a significant contribution to this. > > I'm very concerned about the Irish question. Ireland is probably > the biggest victim of this mess. [UK ministers] still don't > realize that the other 27 [member states] have to agree to this > transition period of two or three years or whatever they're going > to be seeking."<END QUOTE>[/indent] An Irish Government source confirmed it is prepared to use the "nuclear option" of vetoing the transition period. UK Brexit policy on Ireland and Independent (Ireland) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May, Labor Party, Keir Starmer, Jeremy Corbyn, Article 50, Lisbon Treaty, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, The Troubles, Gaelics Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Kinser79 - 08-29-2017 (08-29-2017, 07:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(08-28-2017, 11:12 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Why Russia now hates the Democrats, the Clintons and Obamas, is not merely because that faction represent "Western Decadence" contra Duginism. Another reason Russia hates them is because they have finally awakened to the Single Clenched Fist and looming resurgence of the East Bloc. We can see this in the vast changes in nuclear and military posture which occurred mid this decade. Now these changes may been too little too late but nonetheless we had seemingly once and for all abandoned, rightfully, the sad and naive notions of "The Peace Dividend" and "The West / US Won the Cold War." No, we were merely deceived by The Shape Shifting Beast. We did not win the Cold War. In any case, The Beast started to get up and dance at the start of this decade. Obama reacted appropriately, and we were situated to continue. NATO would have been bolstered and we would have readopted the Contra Iron Curtain strategy of the Cold War. The SCO would have none of this. They knew our own Western factions aligned with Duginism were the answer. We (the collective "we") blundered into electing them. And now here we are. Blundering our way into being defeated and possibly conquered by East Bloc 2.0. Warren, this is Alphabet Soup we're talking about here. I'm surprised he hasn't accused me of being a Russian agent yet. Why? Because I went to Russia on a Tourist Visa once and I buy Voskhod Double Edged Razor Blades directly from their St. Petersberg factory and which I use in my evil Weishi Chinese razor (seriously you see like a Van der Hagen or One Touch razor in like Wally World or whatever, they are all just re-branded Weishi). Or maybe I'm an Italian agent because I almost exclusively buy Porasso Shave soap. And naturally lets not forget how Daddy himself is a Russian Agent. You know because he doesn't want a Nuclear war with a Nuclear power but does want to sell American Missile systems to the Poles (which of course puts the Kremlin on edge). RE: 29-Aug-17 World View -- China and India pull back from Doklam, while North Korea shar - Kinser79 - 08-30-2017 (08-29-2017, 08:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: North Korea has on the order of ten nuclear missiles, China has hundreds, and Russia has over a thousand. If the numbers were the main thing that mattered, you'd be most worried about Russia. Yet, you ignore Putin just like people ignored Hitler. There are a few problems with this. 1. When it comes to nuclear strikes numbers don't matter. Even if we had a Star Wars system that could knock out most of the missiles the solution is to send up one nuke with dozens or even hundreds of dummy missiles. 2. Vladimir Putin is not Hitler. Not politically, and not on the international stage. Chechenya has been part of Russia since before the US even existed. Same with the Crimea. Indeed even Belarus and Ukraine could be considered similar to Texas and California breaking off the US. Now as to what I agree with. Putin isn't particularly interested in mucking about in Korea. Firstly it is the PRC's client state, and secondly any military actions would require the Russians to send their forces across the Transsiberian which in many places is still just a single track. It was and still is a logistical nightmare. Also Putin doesn't want to push around the Chinese too much. Russia and China are not friends and haven't been friends for centuries. The aboration was the friendliness between Mao and Stalin, and even then the diplomatic relations were tepid at best. Russia and China can pose bigger threats than the DPRK, but unlike the DPRK they are unlikely to actually become hot-war threats. China relies on selling the US cheap plastic shit to get dollars to buy resources to sell more cheap plastic shit. It is the basis of their industrial might and China is critically short on oil and other strategic resources. Russia has not historically and is unlikely to attempt to expand their sphere of influence. They have difficulty maintaining what they have, furthermore they have a monocultural economy which means that bringing on other oil and gas would cripple their economy. As for getting the DPRK to give up their nukes--unlikely to happen. Apart from China no one wants to trade with them and they don't really produce much of anything so they have to have something to hold the world hostage for rice and penicillin. I would venture to guess Iran already has nukes, the question is do they have a delivery system. Saudi Arabia likely also has some nukes too, but in limited numbers. We know Israel does. So in the Middle East you have a standoff between Jew, Sunni Muslim and Shia Muslim. Pakistan is only really a threat to India and vise versa. The only real external military threat to America right now is the DPRK. China and Russia are simply not interested and everyone else has other enemies that are far closer to home. This should be expected since our 4T is likely to be entirely internal since the DPRK can be run over in a week even if they do fire of a few missiles without China jumping to their rescue which is economic suicide for the Chinese. And love them or hate them the Chinese are not crazy. They are coldly rational just like the Russians. 31-Aug-17 World View -- Cameroon's army to force English-speaking children to attend - John J. Xenakis - 08-30-2017 *** 31-Aug-17 World View -- Cameroon's army to force English-speaking children to attend school This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Anti-government tensions grow in Cameroon's English-speaking regions **** During protests earlier this year, Anglophone protesters used catapults against police in Bamenda, Cameroon (RFI) Tensions are growing in the Southern Cameroons provinces of Cameroon, the Anglophone (English-speaking) regions of the country. At least half a dozen schools have been burned down. The perpetrators are believed to be members of Ambazonia, the armed wing of the Liberation Movement of Southern Cameroons, a secessionist movement. Ambazonia is the name that the secessionists give to the Southern Cameroons region. The Anglophone minority is about 20% of the country's 23 million inhabitants. Starting late last year, there were protests by teachers and lawyers of discrimination by the majority Francophone (French-speaking) government. Anglophone lawyers protested that the legal and court systems are biased toward Francophones, with many laws passed without even being translated into English. Anglophone teachers went on strike last year, protesting that all courses in the schools had to be taught in French, and that any use of English was forbidden. Protests by Anglophone lawyers and teachers were dispersed by Cameroon security forces firing tear gas and live bullets. Recently, police discovered a cache of weapons and a bomb-making factory, resulting in the arrest of seven people. VOA and Bareta News **** **** Violence grows as Cameroon cracks down on Anglophone activists **** This year, Anglophone activists began using violence against the security police. The recent burning down of schools was presumably in support of the teachers' strike, which is still ongoing after almost a year. So-called "Ghost town" protests have brought Cameroon’s Anglophone regions to a standstill since the beginning of the year. The Cameroon government has tried a variety of nearly desperate measures to end the strike. In January, the government shut down all internet access in the Southern Cameroons, in order to end the protests. It never made any sense to me why the politicians thought that this would end the protests, but politicians are rarely the sharpest knives in the drawer. Anyway, people couldn't do only banking or purchases, and businesses in the region had to shut down. The internet shutdown was a disaster for Cameroon's economy, which lost around $3.1 million. In April, the government was forced to restore internet access. In February, Cameroon arrested three English-speaking protesters, Felix Agbor Balla, Fontem Aforteka'a Neba and Mancho Bibixy, and accused them of acts of terrorism, complicity in acts of terrorism, insurrection, propagation of false news, calling for civil war and calling for a return to the federal system, with the possibility of facing the death penalty.. However, they didn't have any actual evidence of those crimes, and so they were held in jail without trial. In an act of desperation, Cameroon's president Paul Biya announced yesterday (Wednesday) that all judicial proceedings against these and other activists would be ended, though it wasn't clear if or when they would be set free. This week, Biya has banned people from watching a popular cable television channel, SCBC, or the Southern Cameroons Broadcasting Corporation, claiming that it "terrorizes our people." The channel broadcasts programs about the history and culture of the Anglophone region, as well as interviews with exiled lawyers and documentaries about human rights abuses in Cameroon. Unfortunately for Biya, the station broadcasts from South Africa, so he has no way of shutting it down, and South African authorities have refused to shut it down for him. Cable operators in Cameroon are no long permitted to broadcast the channel, but people can still watch it over the internet (particularly now that internet access has been restored). People can be arrested for watching the channel, and some have already been detained for having videos and text messages on their phones relating to the Anglophone protests. Journal du Cameroun and Amnesty International and Reuters and Journal du Cameroun **** **** Cameroon will use police and soldiers to force children to go to school. **** The government has deployed an additional 400 police to the Anglophone regions, to join the 959 already deployed. The job will be to safeguard the start of the school term from the "persistent threat of activists." According to Ayuk Tabe, who is considered by some as the de facto president of the Anglophone regions, "I don't know any child in this world who'll go to school because he or she has been dragged by a policeman or army officer." If you get the feeling that Cameroon's government is run by idiots, I have the same feeling. Instead of sending in the army to force children to go to school, another alternative might be to hire English-speaking teachers to teach things like geography and math in English rather than French, and also to hire some English-speaking judges who could run some courts in English. Steps like that would likely help more than shutting down the internet. Biya's clownish actions have been extremely destructive to Cameroon and to its people and economy, but they seem to be typical of what we've come to expect of African leaders. Paul Biya came to power in 1982 and, as usual in African countries, Biya has turned into a dictator, using abusive measures against anyone who even criticizes him, anything to keep himself and his cronies in control. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we've seen this time after time, in Syria, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, Burundi, Thailand, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Eritrea, and other countries, where leaders in generational Awakening and Unraveling eras use arbitrary jailings, violence and atrocities to keep the opposition ethnic group out of power. Over a period of years, the violence worsens until it turns into a full-scale generational crisis civil war when the next generational crisis era arrives. Radio France Internationale and AFP Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Southern Cameroons, Anglophones, Francophones, Ghost Town, Paul Biya, Ayuk Tabe, Ambazonia, Liberation Movement of Southern Cameroons Felix Agbor Balla, Fontem Aforteka'a Neba, Mancho Bibixy, SCBC, Southern Cameroons Broadcasting Corporation, South Africa Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 1-Sep-17 World View -- As other Asian nations back down, India and Vietnam become all - John J. Xenakis - 08-31-2017 *** 1-Sep-17 World View -- As other Asian nations back down, India and Vietnam become allies confronting China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Vietnam protests China's military drills near the Gulf of Tonkin in South China Sea **** India's Narendra Modi with Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc in Hanoi (Reuters) Vietnam on Thursday protested China's military drills in waters off the month of Vietnam's Gulf of Tonkin in the South China Sea. In reply to reporters’ queries about the move of China, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said that all activities of foreign countries in the waters belonging to Vietnam’s sovereign right and jurisdiction should comply with Vietnam’s legal regulations and international law, especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It's doubtful that China will honor any international law. China repeatedly violates other countries' sovereign territories and threatens to use its massive military to kill anyone who doesn't do as they demand. In July, Vietnam again protested China's military drills violating Vietnam's sovereignty, and as usual they were ignored. In June, China demanded that Spanish company Repsol, under contract with Vietnam, stop drilling for oil and gas in a block that clearly belongs to Vietnam under international law. Vietnam refused. A month later, China threatened to use military force against Vietnamese targets, and Vietnam was forced to step back. Even worse, Vietnam may now be forced to pay Repsol hundreds of millions of dollars in damages. Despite this setback, what's becoming clear is that little Vietnam is becoming the only country around the South China Sea willing to stand up at all to gargantuan China. The Philippines used to stand up to China, but under president Rodrigo R. Duterte, the country has simply given up, with the attitude that China is going to win anyway, so why fight? Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, which previously had expressed some opposition to China's belligerence, have also given up. China even gloated about this three weeks ago in a China Daily editorial, following the meeting of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). According to the article: > [indent]<QUOTE>"It seems, however, that Vietnam almost put a spanner > in the works by attempting to push its own agenda during the > meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers. > > According to media reports, Hanoi struck a less harmonious note by > hypocritically trying to insert tough language criticizing China's > island building in the South China Sea, something Vietnam did > first, resulting in a delay to the issuing of their joint > statement on Saturday. > > But with none of the other ASEAN members being like-minded, > Vietnam's proposed phrases were not included in the communiqué > released on Sunday."<END QUOTE>[/indent] China's island building in the South China Sea is a clear violation of international law, as decided in July 2016, when a Tribunal at the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague eviscerated all of China's claims to the South China Sea. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea" ) China is an international criminal that has repeatedly lied about its claims in the South China Sea. And yet, they won a victory in ASEAN removing any mention of China's criminal activities from the final statement. Even the Philippines, which won the Tribunal ruling last year in July, has almost completely given in to China. It seems that only Vietnam, among the South China Sea nations, is still willing to stand up to China. Vietnam Plus and Reuters and Vietnam Plus (23-Aug) and CNN (14-Aug) and China Daily (7-Aug) **** **** India and Vietnam become allies in confronting China **** Of course, Vietnam is not completely alone in confronting China. Japan is very confrontational with China, and has discussed allying with Vietnam against China. The United States conducts Freedom of Navigation operations in the South China Sea, sailing intelligence-gathering ships near China's illegal man-made islands, infuriating Chinese officials. The US is also confronting China in Central Asia. As we reported in last week's analysis of Donald Trump's speech on Afghanistan, the US is confronting Pakistan in Afghanistan, and is also maintaining its two air bases, in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport, as forward bases in any future war with China. India and the US recently signed a logistical support agreement. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's most interesting is that the US, India and Vietnam, along with Japan, appear to be forming a military alliance to encircle and confront China. India has good reason to ally with Vietnam in confronting China. They share concerns about China's control of the South China Sea, and China's access to the Indian Ocean. India is already providing Vietnam with a $100 million line of credit, and has sold Vietnam four offshore patrol vessels that are likely to be used against China in the South China Sea. India is helping Vietnam to build capacity for repair and maintenance of its defense platforms, and the armed forces of the two states have started cooperation in areas like information technology and the English-language training of Vietnamese Army personnel. India has also accepted Vietnam's invitation to drill for oil in the same region that Repsol abandoned. The most intriguing issue has to do with the possible sale by India of sophisticated BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile systems to Vietnam. Such a sale would dramatically change the power balance in the South China Sea. Vietnam has been asking India since 2011 to purchase the BrahMos systems, but India has refused, fearing to anger China. In 2016, India's prime minister Narendra Modi made it clear that it was no longer as hesitant. The Modi government last year directed BrahMos Aerospace, which produces the missiles, to expedite this sale to Vietnam. Two weeks ago, the government of Vietnam appeared to confirm that it had acquired the missiles from India. However, sources at India's Defense Ministry denied selling the missiles to Vietnam. After that, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry gave an ambiguous statement that neither confirmed nor denied the sale. What we now know that we didn't know then is that India and China were having back-channel negotiations to back down from the standoff on Bhutan's Doklam Plateau. In public, Chinese media were making vitriolic and offensive threats and accusations at India, saying that China's military would wipe out India's military unless India withdrew, and also saying that no negotiations were possible unless India unilaterally withdraw. That all turned out to be China's usual hot air, because the negotiations were already in progress, and resulted in a mutual pullback. So India's denial of the BrahMos sale to Vietnam came at a time when those negotiations were going on, and we still don't yet know whether India denied the sale because they had completed the same but didn't want to upset the negotiations, or because they really hadn't sold the missiles. Asia Times and The Diplomat (22-Aug) and New Delhi TV (23-Aug) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Gulf of Tonkin, China, South China Sea, Repsol, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile system, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-01-2017 Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism. John X please reply to the preceding paragraph. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 09-01-2017 (09-01-2017, 08:26 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism. Reply: You're a moron. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-01-2017 (09-01-2017, 08:45 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(09-01-2017, 08:26 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism. Please make a serious reply, John X. The boomers obvious incompetence in determining US policy is apparent to just about all non-boomers. The Boomer convictions that the worst mistakes of the Missionary leaders in the last crisis were not mistakes; notably imposing unconditional surrender as the war aim in January 1943, which prolonged WW2 by 2 years and destroyed any chance of keeping Stalin out of Europe and Asia. As well as the boomer insistence in staying in the helm simply to prevent new ideas from implementing policy is testament to the boomers pure selfishness and embrace of globalistic decadence. Please make a serious reply to this post and the Last post. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-01-2017 Also you boomers criticize Russia and China for human rights abuses yet at the same time the boomers use massive amounts of coercion to enforce human-rights-ism in western societies. I ponder a question to you; if human rights as well as free-trade as interpreted by boomers is the continuation of our deepest traditions in the west: then why do boomers need to use so much coercion and control in order to enforce this ideology? Could it be that these ideals are alien to not only western tradition but contrary to human nature itself? I think so. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 09-01-2017 (09-01-2017, 08:26 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism. While I don't really disagree regarding globalism, I do have to point out that both the dominant generational types - Civics and Idealists - tend to be at the top for more than their fair share of the time. Given it's mostly the elder Boomers who have dominated the Presidency so far, you might end up with another decade or two of us if younger Boomers also get a turn. The younger GIs did a better job than the older ones; maybe the younger Boomers will do a better job than the older ones too. 2-Sep-17 World View -- Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning pr - John J. Xenakis - 09-01-2017 *** 2-Sep-17 World View -- Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election **** Supporters of Raila Odinga celebrate the court ruling (CNN) Kenya's Supreme Court on Friday ruled that the August 8 re-election of President Uhuru Kenyatta was invalid, and that a new election must be held within 60 days. The court found that Kenyatta "was not validly elected," rendering the result "invalid, null and void." The ruling was a victory for opposition leader Raila Odinga, who had brought the case, claiming that the election had been rigged. The ruling was a complete shock to everyone, including both Kenyatta supporters and opposition, but no one had expected the court to rule against Kenyatta. Corruption is so pervasive in African countries, including Kenya, that normally judges will rule in whatever way the president pays them to rule, and everyone expected Kenya's Supreme Court judges to do the same in this case, irrespective of the evidence. In fact, the ruling is being called "historic," because it's the first time that a legal challenge to a presidential election has ever been successful in the entire history of Africa. Odinga said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"It’s a very historic day for the people of Kenya and > by extension the people of Africa. For the first time in history > of African democratization a ruling has been made by a court > nullifying irregular elections for the president."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Kenyatta said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"I personally disagree with the ruling that has been > made today but I respect it. Millions of Kenyans made their > choice but six people [the judges] have decided that they will go > against the will of the people."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Supporters of Odinga were ebullient, and celebrated in the streets for hours. Odinga himself added: > [indent]<QUOTE>“It is now clear that the entire edifice of the > (election board) is rotten. Clear evidence shows that the > commission was taken over by criminals ... they must face criminal > prosecution. ... We are ready but cannot repeat the election with > this commission."<END QUOTE>[/indent] It's thought that the reasons for the court's ruling included the following:
The court will provide detailed reasoning for its decision within 21 days. The court ruled that a new election must be held within 60 days. However, an election is enormously expensive, and Kenya is deeply in debt. Furthermore, after the last election fiasco, it will be hard to convince people that the next election will be fair. Standard Media (Kenya) and The Nation (Kenya) and Reuters Related Articles
**** **** John Kerry and other election observers come under harsh criticism **** After the August 8 election, and Uhuru Kenyatta had been declared a provisional winner, his opponent Raila Odinga began claiming that the election had been rigged. At that point, John Kerry, who had been former president Barack Obama's Secretary of State, and who had led the Jimmy Carter Center's election observer mission in Kenya, said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Kenya has made a remarkable statement to Africa and > the world about its democracy and the character of that > democracy. Don’t let anybody besmirch that."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Well, now that Kenya's Supreme Court has besmirched it, Kerry and other election day observers are coming under attack in Kenya. They're being accused of blindly endorsing the election to produce the outcome desired by the government, and of completely ignoring the concerns raised by the opposition. Muthoni Wanyeki, who served as Amnesty International’s East Africa Regional Director, supports these accusations against "the election observer industry," and goes further: > [indent]<QUOTE>"I feel a real anger about the way they treat us. I’ve > had diplomats say to my face that, speaking in the light of > history, this election was an improvement [from past > elections]. I’m sorry we do not live in history, we live in the > here and now and we have a right to free and fair elections. > Their attitude in condescending, neocolonial and by saying that > things are improving, they’re treating us like small > children. Hopefully this ruling is like egg on their > face."<END QUOTE>[/indent] John Kerry on Friday said then that while there were "little aberrations here and there," the election was not rigged. France 24 and CNN and Foreign Policy Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, Chris Msando, John Kerry, Muthoni Wanyeki Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Kinser79 - 09-02-2017 (09-01-2017, 09:14 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(09-01-2017, 08:26 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Why is the US helping India and Vietnam when India and Vietnam already have treaty alliances with Russia. Only a boomer would be dumb enough to get involved in someone else's fight and take hits to keep someone else from taking those hits. The Boomer already exceeded that natural generational time-limit of ruling tenure, so the boomer has no right to be so controlling of the important policies because the boomer shouldn't even be in the seats of power anymore. The selfishness of the boomer, especially in regard to extending US help to other Nations without the US extracting its pound of flesh in exchange for that help, is obvious. The boomer obsession with ensuring that america is the "good guy" in any conflict is also a manifestation of that generations extreme selfishness. Death to Neoliberalism, death to globalism. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one. After Daddy the WH is going to shift to an Xers unless the enemy manages to martyr him. But if they do the civil war they're trying to make will come and it will blow up in their faces. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-02-2017 The generational problem in most western countries is the lack of sanity of the baby boomers. Whenever anyone criticizes their precious neoliberalism and globalism boomers become tyrannical. 3-Sep-17 World View -- Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries - John J. Xenakis - 09-02-2017 *** 3-Sep-17 World View -- Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries **** A flooded street in Karachi on Friday (EPA) Some 45 million people in a region stretching from Nepal and Bangladesh through India to Pakistan are dealing with "catastrophic" floods from two months of continuous torrential rain in the worst monsoon season in years. Worldwide media have been heavily covering the floods in Texas from hurricane Harvey, but the floods in South Asia have been far more disastrous. Wide-scale flooding stretching across the Himalayan foothills has caused landslides and washed away tens of thousands of homes and vast swathes of farmland. At least 1,400 people have been killed. Elsewhere, hundreds of thousands of homes have been damaged or destroyed, and many people are facing starvation. In Bangladesh, 1,300 cases of water-borne diseases have been reported. In Mumbai, a multi-story residential building collapse claimed 33 lives, left 15 injured and dozens more buried in the rubble. In Karachi, at least 23 people have died, mostly due to electrocution. New Daily (Australia) and Reuters Related: Pakistan appeals for international help with floods (08-Aug-2010) **** **** Kenya's president Kenyatta lashes out as Supreme Court judges as 'crooks' **** As we described yesterday, Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta was initially restrained on Friday, after Kenya's Supreme Court declared that his presidential election victory was "invalid, null and void" because of electoral committee irregularities. Kenyatta said that he respected the court's decision, and called for peace. But that didn't last long, as he began calling the judges "crooks," saying that there was problem with the court, and promising to "fix it" after he was reelected. Isaac Okero, the president of the Law Society of Kenya, on Saturday condemned Kenyatta's remarks: > [indent]<QUOTE>"Ominously declaring that they (judges) should wait > for him (President Kenyatta) after he is successful in the coming > fresh election is unfortunate and wholly inappropriate remark from > the Head of State who under the constitution is a symbol of > national unity, enjoys immunity from criminal and civil > proceedings and must promote and enhance the unity of the > nation."<END QUOTE>[/indent] It's not clear what Kenyatta meant when he said that he would "fix" the problem with the court once he's elected, but if I were one of the judges, I would be looking for a way to get out of the country quickly. The Nation (Kenya) Related: Kenya's Supreme Court issues 'historic' ruling, overturning presidential election (02-Sep-2017) **** **** Burmese Buddhist attacks on Muslim Rohingyas in Myanmar becoming full-scale genocide **** Attacks by Burmese Buddhists, led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu, since 2011 as we've been reporting, are now clearly crossing the line into full-scale genocide. Buddhists have been slaughtering Rohingyas, raping women and burning down villages in a policy to exterminate them. Bangladesh, which already hosts 400,000 Rohingya refugees, earlier refused to allow any more to enter, but they've reversed that policy. In the last few days, 60,000 more Rohingyas have crossed the Naf River into Bangladesh to flee the Buddhist violence, and more are crossing every day. However, even that path is dangerous, as Burma's army on foot and in helicopters are shooting dead any Rohingyas they seen fleeing to Bangladesh, leaving numerous dead bodies in the river. When the Rohingyas do reach the Bangladesh side, they can turn around and see their villages being burnt to the ground, and other Rohingyas being shot to death. This is rapidly turning into a full-scale genocide, similar to last century's Nazi Holocaust of the Jews, Stalin's Holodomor in Ukraine, and Pol Pot's Killing Fields in Cambodia. The only difference between these is the methods used to implement the "holocaust." BBC Related: Violence between Buddhists and Muslims in Myanmar/Burma escalates dramatically (28-Aug-2017) KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nepal, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Isaac Okero, Law Society of Kenya, Myanmar, Burma, Ashin Wirathu, Rohingyas, Bangladesh, Naf River Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 3-Sep-17 World View -- Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-03-2017 (09-02-2017, 08:59 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ****Ha Ha the Burmese military is doing the world a service by ridding a region of the Islamic scourge. The Muslims by embracing barbarism deserved what they got. RE: 3-Sep-17 World View -- Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries - John J. Xenakis - 09-03-2017 (09-03-2017, 01:15 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Ha Ha the Burmese military is doing the world a service by ridding No, it's the Buddhists and Burmese who are embracing barbarism -- just like Pol Pot's Buddhists, and Stalin's and Hitler's Christians. RE: 3-Sep-17 World View -- Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries - Warren Dew - 09-03-2017 (09-03-2017, 01:38 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(09-03-2017, 01:15 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > Ha Ha the Burmese military is doing the world a service by ridding Your own source says that the muslims are killing buddhists, too, including a bunch of policemen, though I notice you omitted that part from your post. To me this sounds like an ethnic war and the muslims just happened to be on the losing side. In some conflicts there are no good guys. RE: 3-Sep-17 World View -- Floods in South Asia kill 1,400 people in four countries - John J. Xenakis - 09-03-2017 (09-03-2017, 08:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Your own source says that the muslims are killing buddhists, too, So if someone in Somerville decided to kill a cop or two, then the government would be justified to kill you, rape your wife, kill your family, rape your neighbors' wives, kill their families, and then burn down your home and the entire neighborhood. Is that what you're saying? The rapes and slaughter of Rohingyas has been going on for years. Last year, Rohingya activists killed some border guards, and it happened again a couple of weeks ago. But that doesn't justify the massive scorched earth slaughter that's going on now. Maybe it will turn into an ethnic war, but it hasn't so far, and I don't believe that it will unless some other nation (Bangladesh) intervenes militarily. 4-Sep-17 World View -- Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nucle - John J. Xenakis - 09-03-2017 *** 4-Sep-17 World View -- Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power? This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Will we have to accept a world in which North Korea is a nuclear power? **** The giggling North Korean news reader Ri Chun-Hee announces the nuclear test North Korea claimed on Sunday to have successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, the country's sixth nuclear test. The detonation produced 10 times more power than the fifth nuclear test a year ago, based on earthquake monitoring measurements. According to Kune Y. Suh, a nuclear engineering professor at Seoul National University in South Korea: > [indent]<QUOTE>"That scale is to the level where anyone can say (it > is) a hydrogen bomb test. North Korea has effectively established > itself as a nuclear state. This is not just a game changer, it’s a > game over."<END QUOTE>[/indent] North Korea claimed in state media that they have the capability to produce as many hydrogen bombs as they want, and that they have the ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) technology to reach almost any part of mainland United States. However, many experts point out that North Korea has not yet proven that it can weigh down a ballistic missile with a nuclear weapon, and still have the power to reach mainland United States. But even if they don't yet have that capability, the extremely rapid development of their nuclear and ballistic missile technology indicates that they will have that capability soon. Tribune Media (India) and 38 North (S. Korea) and KCNA (N. Korea) **** **** World leaders express outrage and call nuclear test 'unacceptable' **** Many world leaders gave laughable expressions of outrage that we've heard dozens of times before, repeatedly over many years. South Korea's president Moon Jae-in said: > [indent]<QUOTE>"North Korea has made an absurd tactical mistake, by > committing a series of provocations such as launching ICBM > missiles, and conducting a nuclear test. This has heightened > tensions on the peninsula and is threatening world peace. It will > isolate them further."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe said that the test was totally unacceptable: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe initially said, "The North's nuclear test, if it turns out to be true, could never be tolerated." Later, his office issued a statement saying: > [indent]<QUOTE>"In addition, given the fact that North Korea has > belligerently conducted ballistic missile launches repeatedly this > year, the UN Security Council has strongly condemned these > actions. Under such circumstances, this nuclear test, which North > Korea conducted today despite these calls, is totally > unacceptable. > > Taking into consideration that North Korea has enhanced its > capabilities through its six nuclear tests, including the one > today, as well as more than ten launches of ballistic missiles > conducted this year, which could serve as a means to deliver > weapons of mass destruction, including the two ICBM-class > ballistic missile launches in July and the ballistic missile > launch in August that flew over the Japanese territories, North > Korea’s nuclear and missile development has entered a new level of > threat - more grave and imminent - against Japan’s national > security and seriously undermines the peace and security of the > region as well as the international community."<END QUOTE>[/indent] The nuclear test was conducted near China's border, and the Chinese have announced that they are test some border towns for nuclear fallout. Even worse, the test appears to have timed specifically to embarrass China's president Xi Jinping. Xi is hosting the opening of a major BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) conference, and North Korea's test came hours before Xi was scheduled to give his welcoming address. China's Foreign Ministry said: > [indent]<QUOTE>[North Korea] disregarded universal opposition of the > international community by conducting the test. We strongly urge > North Korea side to face up to the firm will of the international > community on the denuclearization of the peninsula, abide by > relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council, stop taking wrong > actions that exacerbate the situation and are not in its own > interest, and return to the track of resolving the issue through > dialogue."<END QUOTE>[/indent] All of the above statements are just hot air, and totally meaningless. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tried to augment his equally meaningless statements with a threat of sanctions: > [indent]<QUOTE>"I am going to draft a sanctions package to send to > the president for his strong consideration that anybody that wants > to do trade or business with them would be prevented from doing > trade or business with us. People need to cut off North Korea > economically. This is unacceptable behavior."<END QUOTE>[/indent] Once again, this is completely laughable. North Korea has ignored sanctions for decades, and will continue to do so. Sanctions, negotiations, bilateral talks, six-party talks, have all been tried and have all failed, and they will again. President Donald Trump tweeted: > [indent]<QUOTE>"The United States is considering, in addition to > other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business > with North Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent] This is presumably targeted at China, but it's a completely empty threat. At most there might be some tiny symbolic sanctions directed at some of China's banks. If any real sanction is attempted, China will announce counter-sanctions. Either way, North Korea won't be affected. CNN and Japan's government and CNN Money **** **** Will the United States take some military action against North Korea? **** Pyongyang residents cheer the televised announcement (Reuters) Some people are suggesting that if North Korea becomes a nuclear power, it's OK. After all, China and Russia are nuclear powers, so why not North Korea? Let them have their nuclear ICBMs that can reach any part of the US mainland, and then everything will settle down, according to these experts. The problem with that reasoning is that the testing would never stop. North Korea would continue developing bigger and more powerful missiles and nuclear weapons, launching one nuclear ballistic missile after another, presumably resulting in a nuclear explosion in the Pacific Ocean. North Korea's child dictator is obviously having too much fun to want to "settle down" after one nuclear weapon is successful. President Trump has said, "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." This is being viewed by many observers as having defined a "red line," similar to Obama's "red line" threat over Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons. Trump followed through on Obama's threat after Obama didn't, and now everyone is watching to see whether Trump will back down the way Obama did. A month ago, Senator Lindsey Graham said that he had spoken with Donald Trump, and said that it is inevitable that war is coming with North Korea: > [indent]<QUOTE>"I’m saying it’s inevitable unless North Korea changes > because you’re making our president pick between regional > stability and homeland security. > > If there’s going to be a war to stop him [Kim], it will be over > there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there. > They’re not going to die here. And he [Trump] has told me that to > my face."<END QUOTE>[/indent] On Saturday, hours before the nuclear test took place, Graham said the following in a BBC interview: > [indent]<QUOTE>"I am 100% certain that if Kim Jong-un continues to > develop missile technology that can hit America, if diplomacy > fails to stop him, there will be an attack by the United States > against his weapons systems. I'm assuming the worst. I'm > assuming that if we drop one bomb, he fires at South Korea, and > maybe Japan. Let me tell you have the war ends. It ends with his > utter destruction. Thousands of people could be killed or maimed. > There's a lot at stake here. And let me ask you - why would the > world, given his track record, the North Korean leader, allow him > to get a hydrogen bomb with a missile to deliver it anywhere in > the world? Why would we do that?"<END QUOTE>[/indent] On Sunday, Defense Secretary James Mattis met with Donald Trump, Mike Pence and top national security advisers, and promised "a massive military response" to any threat from North Korea against the United States or its allies, including Japan or Guam. As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries versus India, Russia, Iran and the West. It's impossible to predict the scenario that will lead to this world war, but right now it looks like the most likely scenarios involved North Korea. BBC and CNN and RFE/RL Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Ri Chun-Hee, Kune Y. Suh, Japan, Shinzo Abe, China, Xi Jinping, Steven Mnuchin, Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, James Mattis, Rex Tillerson Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |