Warren Dew Wrote:

(02-05-2017, 09:54 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: No worse than anyone else.

This is really the point.  Authoritarian governmental models such as fascism are natural fits for fourth turnings.  I'd say the best way to put it would be to say FDR's America tended toward fascism, but everyone else did as well.

Quote:

Quote:Intellectual life went on after Pearl Harbor as it did before -- and there was practically no sympathy for fascism in America before, let alone after.

There was plenty of sympathy for fascism in America in the mid 1930s.

(02-05-2017, 12:04 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Are you complaining that you posted something on a discussion forum and people had the temerity to disagree with it?  Appealing to the authority of the publishers, where every interpretation of events they publish must be true?  Anxious that there might be people who feel they "won the argument"? WTF?

I hope you feel better soon, and that you feel up to participating in future discussions on a more even footing.

(02-07-2017, 01:14 AM)beneficii Wrote:

(02-05-2017, 12:04 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Are you complaining that you posted something on a discussion forum and people had the temerity to disagree with it?  Appealing to the authority of the publishers, where every interpretation of events they publish must be true?  Anxious that there might be people who feel they "won the argument"? WTF?

I hope you feel better soon, and that you feel up to participating in future discussions on a more even footing.

I'm mad that I can't defend it better. I also feel like I'm betraying the author by making his position look weaker than it is.

You misunderstand me. I am making no appeal to authority. Rather, I am saying it might be worth your time to look at the argument more in-depth. If it was just some guy with a blog, people would probably think it was a waste of their valuable time, but that Kim's book was published by such presses might assure more people they might get greater value out of spending their time reading and considering it.

That's why we have printing presses with such good reputations in the first place.

(02-07-2017, 12:36 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David Kaiser wrote this column for Time magazine last week that ties in directly with Fourth Turning theory, and seems to imply that Steve Bannon is using the theory as some kind of policy "playbook."  Kaiser draws some very interesting conclusions about where we are in the crisis turning, and provides some very speculative conjecture, in my opinion.

"What's Next for Steve Bannon and the Crisis in American Life"
http://time.com/4659390/howe-strauss-steve-bannon/

And he seems to answer the question of whether America has reached that "social moment," which some posters have been debating here.

(02-07-2017, 12:47 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:36 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David Kaiser wrote this column for Time magazine last week that ties in directly with Fourth Turning theory, and seems to imply that Steve Bannon is using the theory as some kind of policy "playbook."  Kaiser draws some very interesting conclusions about where we are in the crisis turning, and provides some very speculative conjecture, in my opinion.

"What's Next for Steve Bannon and the Crisis in American Life"
http://time.com/4659390/howe-strauss-steve-bannon/

And he seems to answer the question of whether America has reached that "social moment," which some posters have been debating here.

Trump's election very much looks like it could be the beginning of a social moment, which would last until the end of the 4T.

(02-07-2017, 12:53 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:47 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:36 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David Kaiser wrote this column for Time magazine last week that ties in directly with Fourth Turning theory, and seems to imply that Steve Bannon is using the theory as some kind of policy "playbook."  Kaiser draws some very interesting conclusions about where we are in the crisis turning, and provides some very speculative conjecture, in my opinion.

"What's Next for Steve Bannon and the Crisis in American Life"
http://time.com/4659390/howe-strauss-steve-bannon/

And he seems to answer the question of whether America has reached that "social moment," which some posters have been debating here.

Trump's election very much looks like it could be the beginning of a social moment, which would last until the end of the 4T.

I think that's very much what Kaiser has concluded, and I now see eye to eye with him on that 4T concept.  What troubles me on his blog is his assertion of a possible armed conflict between federal forces and municipal authorities over the issue of immigration bans and sanctuary cities.  That's highly speculative.

(02-07-2017, 12:55 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:53 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:47 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:36 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David Kaiser wrote this column for Time magazine last week that ties in directly with Fourth Turning theory, and seems to imply that Steve Bannon is using the theory as some kind of policy "playbook."  Kaiser draws some very interesting conclusions about where we are in the crisis turning, and provides some very speculative conjecture, in my opinion.

"What's Next for Steve Bannon and the Crisis in American Life"
http://time.com/4659390/howe-strauss-steve-bannon/

And he seems to answer the question of whether America has reached that "social moment," which some posters have been debating here.

Trump's election very much looks like it could be the beginning of a social moment, which would last until the end of the 4T.

I think that's very much what Kaiser has concluded, and I now see eye to eye with him on that 4T concept.  What troubles me on his blog is his assertion of a possible armed conflict between federal forces and municipal authorities over the issue of immigration bans and sanctuary cities.  That's highly speculative.

It's possible, I don't really think it likely.

(02-07-2017, 02:35 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 06:57 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: You've become MORE tolerant of neoconservatism in recent years?  That's an interesting position, could you elaborate?


Pat Buchanan is, to my immense surprise, consistently an enjoyable and interesting read.  The whole The American Conservative site is one of my primary news sources these days.

I used to be somewhat aligned with Paleocons, especially in the realms of Borders, Language and Culture. Where they started to lose me was when they got into the "Russia is the great outpost of White Christian civilization against the Muslim masses" bull shit. Also, way back when, I had a real hatred of globalism. That has become tempered. I now accept that we do need globalism in certain areas. But it needs to be toned down from the Thomas L Friedman extremist version. We need NATO and something like the UN. But that something needs to be of lesser scope and more practical. Regarding the EU, they should drop the economic standardization and continue with some other forms of cooperation that actually have an ROI.

Regarding so called wars of choice that Paleocons, Leftist extremists and other factions love to criticize, I provide the following defense. Granted, the Iraq War was not well executed. However, America First isolationism is not the answer. My view is, let us be proactive. Let us try to keep things like WW2 from happening again. By that I mean, while we may not always prevent a war, we can at least position ourselves so that when such a war arises, we have really great field position already, and, we are not asleep.

Quote:In terms of irregulars, the Trump crowd are generally well armed meanwhile most (but not all) of "The Establishment" crowd would not be able to be competent with my old single shot .22.

(02-07-2017, 11:56 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 01:14 AM)beneficii Wrote:

(02-05-2017, 12:04 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Are you complaining that you posted something on a discussion forum and people had the temerity to disagree with it?  Appealing to the authority of the publishers, where every interpretation of events they publish must be true?  Anxious that there might be people who feel they "won the argument"? WTF?

I hope you feel better soon, and that you feel up to participating in future discussions on a more even footing.

I'm mad that I can't defend it better. I also feel like I'm betraying the author by making his position look weaker than it is.

You misunderstand me. I am making no appeal to authority. Rather, I am saying it might be worth your time to look at the argument more in-depth. If it was just some guy with a blog, people would probably think it was a waste of their valuable time, but that Kim's book was published by such presses might assure more people they might get greater value out of spending their time reading and considering it.

That's why we have printing presses with such good reputations in the first place.

Fair enough.  I remain skeptical, and between studying for work (and future work) related stuffs and my existing reading list, I won't be checking it out soon.  

But I will keep an eye out.  Thanks!

(02-07-2017, 12:47 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:36 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David Kaiser wrote this column for Time magazine last week that ties in directly with Fourth Turning theory, and seems to imply that Steve Bannon is using the theory as some kind of policy "playbook."  Kaiser draws some very interesting conclusions about where we are in the crisis turning, and provides some very speculative conjecture, in my opinion.

"What's Next for Steve Bannon and the Crisis in American Life"
http://time.com/4659390/howe-strauss-steve-bannon/

And he seems to answer the question of whether America has reached that "social moment," which some posters have been debating here.

Trump's election very much looks like it could be the beginning of a social moment, which would last until the end of the 4T.

(02-07-2017, 01:11 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Increasingly, I can no longer dismiss out of hand the possibility of a cold civil war, roughly along red and blue lines, and perhaps leading to the dissolution of our republic, much as happened with the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.  And even that seems farfetched.

But armed conflict?  Are we indeed nearing the flashpoint--like the parlays of old--where the generals of two sides arrayed for battle finally say to one another, "Enough talk, it's war now!"

(02-07-2017, 04:02 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:47 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:36 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David Kaiser wrote this column for Time magazine last week that ties in directly with Fourth Turning theory, and seems to imply that Steve Bannon is using the theory as some kind of policy "playbook."  Kaiser draws some very interesting conclusions about where we are in the crisis turning, and provides some very speculative conjecture, in my opinion.

"What's Next for Steve Bannon and the Crisis in American Life"
http://time.com/4659390/howe-strauss-steve-bannon/

And he seems to answer the question of whether America has reached that "social moment," which some posters have been debating here.

Trump's election very much looks like it could be the beginning of a social moment, which would last until the end of the 4T.

... or not.  He's still leading a minority charge, and part of the minority has stated their interest in him and his ideas are all about themselves, their lives and, most importantly, their jobs.  He still has to deliver on something that is highly unlikely to happen.

(02-07-2017, 04:06 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 01:11 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Increasingly, I can no longer dismiss out of hand the possibility of a cold civil war, roughly along red and blue lines, and perhaps leading to the dissolution of our republic, much as happened with the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.  And even that seems farfetched.

But armed conflict?  Are we indeed nearing the flashpoint--like the parlays of old--where the generals of two sides arrayed for battle finally say to one another, "Enough talk, it's war now!"

Do you discount violence entirely, or only the potential for an armed conflict?  There's a lot of anger out there, and Trump has working the audience.  I still don't see him succeeding, but I think he can trigger a mess if he wishes.  As a professional glad-hander, he seems ill suited to the task.

(02-07-2017, 02:31 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Generally skirmishes precede full-scale war.  We have had a few scuffles, but nothing on the scale of Bleeding Kansas yet.  So, as a thesis, not impossible but not proven.

(02-07-2017, 12:47 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-07-2017, 12:36 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David Kaiser wrote this column for Time magazine last week that ties in directly with Fourth Turning theory, and seems to imply that Steve Bannon is using the theory as some kind of policy "playbook."  Kaiser draws some very interesting conclusions about where we are in the crisis turning, and provides some very speculative conjecture, in my opinion.

"What's Next for Steve Bannon and the Crisis in American Life"
http://time.com/4659390/howe-strauss-steve-bannon/

And he seems to answer the question of whether America has reached that "social moment," which some posters have been debating here.

Trump's election very much looks like it could be the beginning of a social moment, which would last until the end of the 4T.

Quote:It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.

(02-07-2017, 05:52 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Which is the point I was making to Dave above.  "Patriots" in the lead-up to the Revolution or Abolitionists in the 1850s were never an absolute majority of the population.  Likewise for secessionist firebrands in the Confederacy, if your sensibilities were hurt by the above comparison.  They were just dominant among the people with the power and inclination to actually do something (for values that do not include posting on the internet).

As Samuel Adams once said,

Quote:It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.

Right at the moment the "red" faction has just won a major victory, and appears to be spurring a reaction amongst the "blues".  It remains to be seen how that plays out.  We've seen some violence, but not much.  If it increases, why, there's your social moment.  

Still lots of ways this could play out.