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Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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11-May-18 World View -- Israel-Iran attacks in Syria take a pause, as Turkey tightens - John J. Xenakis - 05-10-2018 *** 11-May-18 World View -- Israel-Iran attacks in Syria take a pause, as Turkey tightens control over Afrin This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Turkey tightens grip on Syria's Afrin, and continues to threaten Manbij **** ![]() Syrian police trainees in Turkey (Anadolu) Turkey is continuing to tighten its grip on the northern Syria city Afrin, on Turkey's border, following the successful completion of Operation Olive Branch. Turkey's military Operation Olive Branch began on January 20 and took place over several months, with the objective of regaining control of Syria's border city of Afrin from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). The YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is considered by the US and Europe as a terrorist organization, and has conducted numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey over a thirty year period. The operation was executed by Arab militias in the Free Syrian Army (FSA), backed by Turkish armed forces. Turkey declared the operation successfully completed on March 18. Since then, Turkey has been tightening its control on Afrin. On April 10, Turkey announced plans to open a new border crossing from Turkey to the Syrian city of Afrin with the objective of speeding up delivery of humanitarian aid to the city. However, at the same time, the new border crossing gives Turkey complete control over Afrin. Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, is demanding that Turkey return control of Afrin back to the Syrian regime. However, Turkey is showing no signs of being willing to do so. On Wednesday, Turkey announced that 600 Syrian police, aged 18 to 45, have received a month's training in Turkey, and are now trained and ready to be deployed back to Afrin to provide security as local police officers, "in an effort to return daily life to normal in the recently liberated city." They received training in intervention in social incidents, police regulations, general discipline, residential district, operation education, destroying improvised explosives and crime scene investigation. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly promised on numerous occasions that once the operation in Afrin had been completed, the FSA forces would move east to perform a similar operation in the city of Manbij, and continue from there to the Euphrates River and beyond to Iraq. That was always going to pose big problems, since the YPG in Manbij and further east were US allies that were the principal fighters that ejected the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) from Raqqa and other regions in eastern Syria. Thus, an FSA assault on the YPG in Manbij risked a military clash with US forces. U.S. protection of the YPG in Manbij has now been formalized. On Wednesday, it emerged that U.S. forces had set up a new base in Manbij three months ago, shortly after Turkey launched its assault on Afrin. The new base will house both US and French troops, who will have the responsibility of patrolling the border to prevent clashes between the Turkish-backed forces and the YPG in Manbij. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Daily Express (London) Related Articles:
**** **** Israel-Iran missile barrages in Syria take a pause on Thursday **** ![]() Syrian anti-aircraft missiles in the sky over Damascus on Thursday morning in response to Israeli missile attacks (AP) The military battle between Iran and Israel that began on Wednesday evening and continued through the night has taken a pause, with many signs that the pause will be only temporary. According to Israel's military, the battle was triggered when Iran's Quds Force, in Syria near the border with Israel, fired 20 missiles at Israeli military positions in the Golan Heights border area separating western Syria from northern Israel. According to Israel, this was the first ever direct Iranian rocket attack on its troops. This triggered the most intensive attack ever on Iranian positions and assets in Syria. Israel retaliated with what appeared to be surface-to-surface missiles, and multiple Syrian anti-aircraft batteries were launched to try to intercept them. Officials said that the response targeted almost all of Iran's military infrastructure inside Syria, including dozens of weapons storage sites and intelligence centers used by elite Iranian forces, as well as Syrian air defense systems. Israel struck more than 50 Iranian targets, in its most extensive operation in Syria since 1974. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said, "They need to remember the saying that if it rains on us, it'll storm on them. I hope we finished this chapter and everyone got the message." Iran said that it had no desire to escalate the military conflict. Iran's president Hassan Rouhani said, "Iran has always sought to reduce tensions in the region, trying to strengthen security and stability." Israel informed both Russia and the US of its plans ahead of the retaliatory strikes. Israeli officials say that Iran still has long-range capabilities in Syria with which to strike Israel, suggesting that the battle has not ended. Jerusalem Post and Independent (London) and CNN and Debka (Israel) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Operation Olive Branch, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Afrin, People's Protection Units, YPG, Manbij, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Iran, Israel, Golan Heights, Avigdor Lieberman, Russia Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 05-11-2018 Sounds like Rouhani is hanging the IRGC out to dry to the extent he can. I wonder if he'll be able to pull them back to Iran. 12-May-18 World View -- Climate change conference collapses as China backs down from - John J. Xenakis - 05-11-2018 *** 12-May-18 World View -- Climate change conference collapses as China backs down from emission commitments This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Climate change activists struggle to replace US climate change money **** ![]() Brown coal open-pit mining Garzweiler in front of a power plant near the city of Grevenbroich in western Germany, on 3-Apr-2014. (AP) After two weeks, an international climate change conference in Bonn Germany, attended by delegates of over 200 countries, has ended in failure, without agreeing on the major issues of finance and transparency. Climate change finance has been in trouble from the beginning. The 2015 climate change conference that produced the famous "Paris Climate Change Accord" dictated that the "rich countries" of the world would provide $100 billion per year to the "developing countries," starting in 2020. Even before the election of Donald Trump, it was highly unlikely that that requirement would be met. However, since Trump has pulled the US out of the Paris agreement, other "rich countries" now have to find a way to fill the gap that was created. As I've described many times in the past, the climate change has never actually accomplished anything -- that is, you have leaders of one country after another taking a holier-than-thou attitude toward the United States about the Paris accord, but their carbon emissions go down little if at all. In the case of Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel has had the most holier-than-thou attitude of all, carbon emissions haven't declined for nearly a decade, and have been increasing for the last three years. I first wrote about this subject in 2007 in "UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce" . That conference was held at a Bali Beach Resort where 159 countries sent delegates to sip mai tais on the beach and attend an occasional meeting. The rich countries would have to contribute $100 billion to a fund for developing countries. The United Nations would control this money and administer the fund. At that time, digging a little deeper, it turned out that Louis Redshaw, Head of Environment Markets, Barclays Capital, was leading an effort to issue synthetic securities to trade in carbon credits. It was predicted that the carbon-trading market would top $1 trillion within a decade. Readers might recall that 2007 was the year that the subprime mortgage financial crisis was starting. In the last 11 years since that conference, nothing has changed. Climate change has accomplished nothing except as a financial scam. Climate Change News and Reuters and Washington Post and Heritage **** **** China backs out of its climate change commitments with 'bifurcation' **** The climate change conference in Bonn that ended on Thursday was supposed to resolve many issues, including two major ones: finance and transparence. When Trump pulled the US out of the Paris climate accord, there were international cries that without the leadership of the United States, other countries must assume leadership. The European Union took on the role of becoming the leader of the "rich" or developed countries, while China would be the leader of the developing countries. China has the 2nd largest economy in the world, and Chinese people brag that centrally-planned economy is stronger than any other economy in the world. China is implementing its "Belt and Road Initiative" in countries throughout Asia by lending them money to build infrastructure and sending Chinese workers to provide the labor. China is spending its enormous wealth by setting debt traps in all these countries with huge debts that they won't be able to repay. China is also growing into the worst climate change violator in the world, building a new coal plant every week. And yet, when it comes to climate change, they climb into their pathetic loser shells and claim to be a "developing country," so they won't have to provide funding under the Paris accord. So China is failing in climate change finance. What we're seeing at the climate change conference in Bonn this last week is that they're also failing in climate change transparency. China is demanding that it not be held to any climate change standards whatsoever. In return for all the money they're getting from the rich countries starting in 2020, the developing countries are supposed to start reducing emissions in 2020. The issues are transparency and bookkeeping. Each country is required to open its accounting books to prove that it's meeting its emission reduction commitments. But China is now demanding "bifurcation." This is a technical term meaning that the transparency and bookkeeping rules apply only to the rich countries, not to the developing countries. This means that the "rich" developed countries have to pay all the money and also meet the transparency and bookkeeping rules to prove that they're meeting their emission commitments. But the developing countries just have to sit back and collect money, and claim that they're reducing emissions without having to provide any evidence. China can go on building a new coal power plant every week, and just claim that it's magic coal that reduces emissions rather than increasing them. You know, Dear Reader, this is so completely f--ked up that it's almost unbelievable. But that's the way the world is today. With idiots like these running the world, it's no wonder we're headed for a new World War. BBC and Climate Change News and Bloomberg and Climate Change News Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, climate change, Paris accord, Germany, Angela Merkel, European Union, China, Bali Beach Resort, Louis Redshaw, Barclays Capital, bifurcation Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 13-May-18 World View -- Likely outcome of Trump-Kim North Korea summit: Mutual recrim - John J. Xenakis - 05-12-2018 *** 13-May-18 World View -- Likely outcome of Trump-Kim North Korea summit: Mutual recriminations and accusations This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North Korea schedules dismantling of nuclear test site as TV ceremony **** ![]() Ronald Reagan (L) and Mikhail Gorbachev ® leave 1986 summit meeting after it collapses in mutual recriminations and accusations of bad faith and lying (ADST) North Korea has announced that its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, located in Mount Mantap, will be dismantled during the period May 23-25, and that international journalists will be able to cover the dismantling "on the spot," and transmit their reports from a press center at the site. This announcement comes just two days after scientists reported that an examination of satellite images shows that Mount Mantap itself has collapsed considerably more than has previously been estimated. Using these images, scientists found that Mount Mantap moved by around 11.5 feet (3.5 meters) and shrank by 1.6 feet (0.5 m). It can't be determined from the satellite images whether some tunnels have collapsed, or whether the entire mountain has collapsed. Nonetheless, what is apparent from numerous reports starting with North Korea's last nuclear test, on September 3 of last year, is that Chinese scientists and geologists are telling North Korea not to use that test site again, because another test could risk a huge nuclear disaster that would release huge amounts of radiation and nuclear debris that would spread over large parts of northeastern China, as well as North Korea. When North Korea made the initial dismantling announcement, they said that international journalists and nuclear experts would be permitted to watch the dismantling. The latest announcement omits mention of nuclear experts, and says that even the number of journalists will be limited, suggesting that there's another layer of North Korean subterfuge in process. The bottom line is that the dismantling of the test site on May 23-25 is a completely empty gesture, since the site cannot be used again anyway. KCNA Watch and BBC and Live Science and Washington Post Related Articles:
**** **** North Korea offers series of theatrical noncommittal gestures **** Chinese media have been talking about a "dual track" process to achieve denuclearization. This means that the North Koreans make a concession and the US makes a concession, and so forth. China and North Korea are already pressuring the US to ease the strict sanctions that have been imposed on North Korea, based on the supposed concessions already made. They are aware that once the sanctions have been lifted, it will be almost impossible to get international agreement to re-impose them, even if North Korea reverses any concessions that it's made. The near impossibility of re-imposing sanctions has been illustrated in the last week by the international criticism of the Trump administrations announced re-imposition of sanctions on Iran. So the following points are worth noting with regard to the steps that have already been taken in this "dual track" process to achieve denuclearization:
Many of these things are being described by the mainstream media as concessions by the North Koreans, sometimes with the implication that Donald Trump should make some concessions in return at the meeting with Kim. However, Kim and the North Koreans have displayed a great deal of theatric showmanship, but have not made a single actual concession. Panmunjom Declaration and Japan Forward **** **** The most likely Kim-Trump meeting outcome: Mutual accusations and recriminations **** On October 11, 1986, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev held a summit meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland. The agenda was mutual reductions in missile arsenals, and expectations were very high. But then Gorbachev demanded limitations on Reagan's pet project, the mythical Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), which supposedly would use space technology to provide a "shield" from nuclear attacks. Reagan refused, and the meeting ended in mutual accusations and recriminations, each accusing the other of lying and bad faith. Talks did not resume again for more than a year. It has been announced that Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un will have a summit meeting on June 12 in Singapore. Expectations for this meeting are enormously high. The people of South Korea, particularly, are praying that this will be end of their long 70-year nightmare that began with the Korean War, and that they'll be reunited with the families again. However, Kim is going to demand that some sanctions be lifted immediately, and Trump is going to demand substantial, verifiable steps to dismantle North Korea's nuclear program. And while the main agenda item is "denuclearization," the two sides have completely different meanings for that term. In my opinion, the most likely outcome of the June 12 meeting is a repeat of the outcome of the Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, in that the meeting will end (or not be held) amidst a flurry of mutual accusations and recriminations. After that, there are many possible scenarios. It's possible that North Korea will continue nuclear weapons development, with or without testing, and it's possible that the Trump administration will go back to continuing military options. As I've been writing for many months now, there's are hard bottom line positions on both sides, and they haven't changed. Kim is committed to producing an arsenal of nuclear tipped ballistic missiles aimed at the United States, and selling that technology to Iran and other rogue nations. Trump is committed to preventing that from happening. History.com and Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training and 38 North Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Mount Mantap, Punggye-ri nuclear test site, Panmumjom Declaration, Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, Ronald Reagan, Mikhail Gorbachev, Reykjavik Iceland, Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 14-May-18 World View -- ISIS linked family of six bombs three churches in Indonesia - John J. Xenakis - 05-13-2018 *** 14-May-18 World View -- ISIS linked family of six bombs three churches in Indonesia This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** ISIS linked family of six bombs three churches in Indonesia **** ![]() Firefighters try to extinguish a blaze following a blast at the Pentecost Church Central Surabaya in Indonesia on Sunday (Reuters) Terrorist atrocities took a new turn on Sunday when a family of six, including a mother, a father, two daughters and two sons, all performed coordinated simultaneous terror attacks on three churches in Surabaya, the second-largest city in Indonesia. At least 13 people were killed, and 40 injured. The two sons, aged 16 and 18, rode motorcycles into Santa Maria Catholic Church and detonated the bombs they were carrying. Five minutes later, the father drove a car containing explosives and rammed it into the gate and onto the grounds of the Surabaya Centre Pentecostal Church. Five minutes after that, the mother and her two daughters, aged 9 and 12, all strapped explosives to their bodies and blew themselves up at Diponegoro Indonesian Christian Church. ISIS (Islamic State in Syria) took credit for Sunday's attack. However, their press releases made no mention that the attackers were all from the same family, indicating that, as usual, ISIS is taking credit for a terror attack that it knows nothing about, except that it was conducted in the ISIS name. Authorities are certain that the attackers were part of the Indonesian-based Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) militant group. JAD pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2015, and then conducted a series of explosions and shootings in Indonesia's capital city Jakarta, killing four civilians. It was the first attack in the country to be linked to ISIS. The family of six that perpetrated Sunday's attacks had recently returned from a family trip to Syria. Like hundreds of other Indonesians, and like tens of thousands of people from over 80 countries around the world, they had gone to Syria to fight the Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad, who was attacking peaceful Sunni anti-government protesters by sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. Sunday's attack is believed to be one that is part of a growing nightmare scenario, where the tens of thousands of young jihadis who had gone to Syria to fight al-Assad are now returning home, after ISIS lost almost all of the territory it formerly controlled in Syria and Iraq. As thousands of ISIS fighters return to their home countries, they will conduct terror attacks there in the name of ISIS. Reuters and Long War Journal and Daily Mail (London) **** **** Saturday's Paris knife attacker had links to jihadists in Syria **** A variation of the nightmare scenario described above was followed by Khamzat Azimov, 20. On Saturday evening, Azimov traveled to one of the most popular areas of Paris, near the celebrated opera house and theatres, and started attacking passersby with a knife. He shouted "Allahu Akbar," and killed on passerby and injured four others before being tasered and then shot dead by police. Azimov was born in Chechnya, and obtained French nationality in 2010 when his mother was naturalized. Azimov had previously been flagged as a possible security risk, and had been interviewed by counter-terrorism police -- not because of his behavior, but because of his contacts. He was known to have links to young French people who had traveled to Syria to join ISIS. So Azimov himself didn't go to Syria and return, as was the case with the Indonesian family. Instead, he allowed himself to be radicalized by people who had gone to Syria. Guardian (London) **** **** Growth of Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) in Indonesia **** Indonesia has the world's largest Muslim population, about 227 million Muslims out of a total population of 261 million people. About 10% of the population are Christian. Sunday's attack was the worst terror attack since 2002, when al-Qaeda linked Jemaah Islamiyah killed more than 200 people, mostly tourists, through a string of bombings at popular nightclubs and hotels on Indonesia's island of Bali. Since then, Indonesian police have arrested or killed hundreds of people with links to Jemaah Islamiyah, By 2014, a new generation of jihadists was coming of age in Indonesia, but were impatient with the older generation that had perpetrated the Bali bombing in 2002. When Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, declared his caliphate in 2014, many Indonesian jihadists immediately pledged allegiance to ISIS. There were some two dozen extremist groups competing to lead the ISIS cause in Indonesia. Under the leadership of a radical cleric named Oman Rochman, also known as Aman Abdurrahman, Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) was formed as an umbrella organization for all these extremist groups. Aman Abdurrahman, the leader of JAD, has been in jail for the last 12 years, and is currently on trial for inciting followers to commit acts of terrorism while behind bars at a detention center which has been described by analysts as a breeding ground for pro-ISIS militants. BBC and Al Jazeera and Long War Journal (18-Apr-2017) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Indonesia, Jakarta, Surabaya, Pentecost Church Central Surabaya, Santa Maria Catholic Church, Diponegoro Indonesian Christian Church, Jemaah Islamiyah, Jemaah Ansharut Daulah, JAD, Oman Rochman, Aman Abdurrahman, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, France, Paris, Khamzat Azimov Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 15-May-18 World View -- Gaza violence surges in Palestinian 'Great March for Return' - John J. Xenakis - 05-14-2018 *** 15-May-18 World View -- Gaza violence surges in Palestinian 'Great March for Return' into Israel This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Gaza violence surges in Palestinian 'Great March for Return' into Israel **** ![]() A child is carried by Palestinians away from the front lines after he was shot. The smoke is created by burning tires that the Palestinians use to hide from the Israel troops (Ma'an News) Dozens of residents of Gaza were killed, and over 2000 injured, in a clash with Israeli troops in what Palestinians are calling "The Great March for Return," resulting in the greatest surge of violence in Gaza since the 2014 war between Israel and Hamas. Israel said some 40,000 Palestinians had taken part in "violent riots" at 13 locations along the Gaza Strip security fence. Monday's march is the culmination of six weeks of similar marches that began late in March. The pattern is always the same. Thousands of Gazans march to the border with Israel, threatening to break through the fence into Israel. Israel's army tries to stop them, first using tear gas, then rubber bullets, and eventually using live fire, resulting in casualties. Hamas, the government authority of Gaza, has been calling these demonstrations the "Great March for Return," meaning that it's accompanied by demands for "Right of Return," the demand that Palestinians be permitted to return to the land that they lost in the Arab-Jewish war in 1948. For that reason, the attempt by thousands of Gazans to breach the fence and cross over into Israel is considered an existential threat to Israel by the Israelis. According to reports by both media and Israeli officials, Hamas directed women and children to sit near the border fence, and then the men used the women and children as shields while throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails over the fence at soldiers. I cannot think of any explanation for this except Palestinian politics -- to incite as many killings of women and children as possible, in order to international condemnation of Israel. Times of Israel and Ma'an News (Palestine) and BBC **** **** Opening of US embassy in Jerusalem stirs strong reactions **** On Monday, the US embassy in Israel officially moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. US Ambassador David Friedman and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin unveiled a plaque officially denoting the building as the US embassy. The building is already in use as an American visa-and-passport facility, and the new embassy will occupy a portion of the building with a small staff. David Friedman will be traveling back and forth between the new Jerusalem embassy, and his main offices in Tel Aviv. So very little of substance occurred on Monday with the move of the US embassy in Jerusalem. But the reactions to the move indicate that it has a very high symbolic significance. It was the occasion of gleeful, euphoric bragging by Israeli officials at the dedication ceremony, as contrasted to angry, somber, furious expressions by Palestinian leaders. While most international comments were restrained, some strongly condemned Israel for either the embassy move or the Gaza violence or both. Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, condemned the "shocking killing of dozens, injury of hundreds by Israeli live fire." Turkey called the Gaza violence a "vile massacre," and recalled its ambassadors from both US and Israel. South Africa also recalled its ambassador to Israel, condemning "the indiscriminate and grave manner of the latest Israeli attack." Numerous countries, including France, Germany and Saudi Arabia, referred to the embassy move to Jerusalem as "dangerous,", "catastrophic," "irresponsible," and "against international law." I hear journalists, politicians and analysts say all the time that "Nobody wants a war." That isn't true. Lots of people want wars. As I described in an article last year, the public becomes heavily invested in starting a war, and extremely euphoric when the war actually begins, as most of the public are under the delusion that they'll win quickly. That euphoria lasts until there's a major setback. According to General Carl von Clausewitz, the effects on the people and the government "is a sudden collapse of the wildest expectations, and total destruction of self-confidence. The destruction of these feelings creates a vacuum, and that vacuum gets filled by a fear that grows corrosively, leading to total paralysis." Gaza's population clearly has an overwhelming desire for another war with Israel. They presumably have been told by Hamas leaders that this time Hamas will win. I have heard Marwan Bishara, the lead analyst on al-Jazeera, imply that Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are traitors to Palestinians because they sought peace rather than war with Israel. The dreams of an easy victory over Israel are completely delusional. In a generational Crisis era, Israel will never surrender or compromise. If the war starts going badly for Israel, nuclear weapons will be used. As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Monday was supposed to be the culmination of the "Great March for Return" marches. In view of all the violence, it's possible that the marches will now fizzle out for a while, or it's possible that they'll escalate into a regional conflict. Times of Israel and Al Jazeera and BBC and Washington Post Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Jerusalem, Hamas, Great March for Return, David Friedman, Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, Marwan Bishara, Steven Mnuchin Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 16-May-18 World View -- Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province i - John J. Xenakis - 05-15-2018 *** 16-May-18 World View -- Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan **** ![]() Afghan security forces respond to the Taliban attacks on Tuesday (Reuters) It's just the beginning of the Taliban's Spring Fighting Season, and Afghanistan government forces have apparently been caught completely by surprise by an overwhelming Taliban attack on Farah City, the provincial capital of Farah province. Farah province is in western Afghanistan, on the border with Iran. Hundreds of Taliban attackers overran several security checkpoints in coordinated attacks starting at 2 am on Tuesday. Heavily armed Taliban fighters, using captured Afghan military HUMVEEs and police pickup trucks, launched the coordinated assault on Farah City overnight from multiple directions. Afghan security forces have responded, but had to be backed up by American and Nato warplanes, including A-10 Warthogs. A government official claimed that no government building or organization had fallen to the Taliban, but residents are claiming that the city is close to total collapse, and government officials have a history of reporting fake news in these situations. Videos released on social media show that a number of security forces vehicles have been torched, and that the Taliban have entered a building used by the security forces. The clashes are ongoing. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Long War Journal and Business Insider **** **** Afghan officials blame Iran and Pakistan **** Afghan officials have long complained that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), aid the Taliban insurgents in western Afghanistan in an effort to torpedo construction projects and undermine stabilization efforts by the US-led coalition in the region. Unlike in the past, IRGC-affiliated media outlets now openly express support for the Taliban’s latest territorial gains in western Afghanistan. Commentary in the IRGC outlets also indicate that Iran’s support to the Taliban is aimed at expelling U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, particularly from western Afghan provinces. Farah is the fourth largest province in Afghanistan, with a population of 925,000 in 11 districts. According to the US Naval University in 2009, 50 percent of the Farah population is composed of Pashtun tribes, 45 percent of Tajik and the rest of the population, including the Diaspora, Hazaras and Baluchs. Middle East Institute and Tasnim News (Iran) (Translation) **** **** Afghan government continues to lose control to the Taliban **** Taliban began its Spring Fighting Season in late April, and according to Afghan officials, the Taliban have carried out over 2,700 attacks across the country in the first 19 days of the Spring Fighting Season. In the last week Afghan security forces suffered heavy losses in clashes against insurgents across the country, so on Sunday the Afghan interior ministry said that security forces have retreated from some areas that have high threat levels so as to avoid additional fatalities. On the other hand, General Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. Central Command, said a few days ago: <QUOTE>"The message I would send to the Taliban is that they cannot win militarily. The international coalition, led by the United States, is focused on providing the military pressure, in conjunction with social pressure and diplomatic pressure that will force them to come to the table."<END QUOTE> This is the latest delusional statement from the US military. It's certainly true that as an anti-government insurgency they cannot win militarily, but it's equally true that there is no chance whatsoever to "force them to come to the table." I've been saying this repeatedly for many years, and the reasons are just as true today as ever. As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge. But you don't have to know anything about generational history to understand what's going on. You just have to understand that there was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96, pitting the Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that the Taliban are Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking for revenge for atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that Nato troops are completely irrelevant. So the funny thing is that even if Votel's claim that military force targeting a group of Taliban leaders could "force them to come to the table," the children of those Taliban leaders will have none of it. It's possible that most of the Taliban fighting in Farah province today were just children in school just a few years ago. However, as I've written in the past, there's a dynamic going on, where Votel and the American military makes statements that the public wants to hear, even though they don't contain a word of truth. Votel understands that this war cannot be won, but there's a larger purpose. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. RFE/RL and Tolo News (Afghanistan) and RFE/RL Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Farah City, Farah Province, Spring fighting season, Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC, Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Nato, Resolute Support, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 17-May-18 World View -- China says that its military exercises are intended to threat - John J. Xenakis - 05-16-2018 *** 17-May-18 World View -- China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan **** ![]() Taiwan's frogmen Marines perform close combat drills just a few kilometers from mainland China on the outlying island of Kinmen, Taiwan (AP) Last week, China conducted an "innovative joint operation" where Chinese warplanes flew in opposite directions around Taiwan. New Su-35 fighter jets flew with H-6K strategic bombers south of Taiwan, and J-11 fights flew with KJ-200 early warning aircraft north of Taiwan. These operations involved two theatre commands for exercises that involved early warning systems, detection and assaults. China's government said Wednesday that the country’s military exercises around Taiwan are intended as a direct threat to Taiwan, following any moves toward independence. According to the Chinese government spokesman: <QUOTE>"It is a strong warning to Taiwan independence separatist forces and their activities. It demonstrates our determination and capabilities to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. [China has the] firm will, full confidence and sufficient capabilities to block moves toward Taiwan’s formal independence."<END QUOTE> China has conducted frequent missions by air force fighters, bombers and surveillance planes to circle Taiwan. Also, China has repeated sailed its sole operating aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait. China is using a "carrot and stick" to deal with Taiwan. The "carrot" is that China is introducing 31 "preferential policies" for Taiwan, in the fields of legal rights, education, culture and tourism, with the objective of charming the Taiwanese people by improving their lives. China is making it easy for Taiwanese businesses to borrow money and invest in high-tech enterprises on the mainland. China has provided internships and jobs for nearly 9,000 Taiwanese youth as of the end of 2017. Perhaps most important, Taiwanese entrepreneurs and businessmen who are complaining about low pay and Taiwan are being offered higher wages and bigger markets on mainland China, resulting in a "brain drain" in Taiwan. The "stick" is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Military experts say the balance of power between Taiwan and mainland China has now shifted decisively in the mainland's favor, and they would overwhelm Taiwan unless US forces quickly came to Taiwan's rescue. The United States is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, but it is unclear whether the US would take military action to defend Taiwan, and have an all-out war with China. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and AP and South China Morning Post and Xinhua and Reuters (21-Apr) and Reuters (24-Apr) **** **** Taiwan, in cooperation with the U.S., strengthens defenses against China **** Last week for the first time, the annual Taiwan-U.S. Defense Business Forum was hosted in Taiwan, in order to "bring together US and Taiwan companies to discuss granular challenges of bilateral cooperation in the defense industry supply chain." The objective is to allow business executives and government officials from both countries to discuss defense cooperation in the shipbuilding, cybersecurity, and aerospace industries. China, as usual, reacted with fury. Zhu Songling, a professor at the institute of Taiwan studies in Beijing Union University, that the event was dangerous, and could lead to war: <QUOTE>"The deepening US defense cooperation with Taiwan is an act of gross interference in China's domestic affairs. It's a very serious matter for the Chinese mainland. Further moves that promote concrete military exchanges will invoke a strong response from the mainland, even prompt the Chinese mainland to use non-peaceful means to resolve the Taiwan question."<END QUOTE> A particular worry for the Taiwanese are China's J-20 stealth fighter jets. These are not detectable using ordinary radar, and if J-20s were among the warplanes circling Taiwan last week, Taiwan's military was not aware of it. Taiwan is developing, for operational testing this year, and with mass production and deployment expected by 2020, the P01-180514-pic1BA mobile passive radar system developed by the island’s Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology. This system would be able to detect, track and lock on to targets at long range. Finally, Taiwan scheduled its own military drills late in April. These drills simulate repelling an invading force, emergency repairs of a major airbase and using civilian-operated drones as part of military exercises. The descriptions of these drills do not mention China, but instead refer to "offensive forces invading Taiwan." The Diplomat and Global Times (Beijing, 8-May) and Asia Times Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, China, Taiwan-U.S. Defense Business Forum, Zhu Songling Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 18-May-18 World View -- New Ebola outbreak in major DR Congo city is called potential - John J. Xenakis - 05-17-2018 *** 18-May-18 World View -- New Ebola outbreak in major DR Congo city is called potentially 'explosive' This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** New Ebola outbreak in major DR Congo city is called potentially 'explosive' **** ![]() Hospital in Mbandaka, DRC, where Ebola patients will be treated (WHO) The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was only marginally affected by the massive Ebola epidemic that struck eastern Africa (Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea) in 2014-2016. DRC itself has had its own Ebola outbreaks 9 times since 1976, but all of them have occurred in rural villages, where they were easily contained. What's different now is that a new Ebola outbreak has spread to a large, densely packed port city, with the possibility of rapid transmission within the city, as well as transmission along the Congo River to other countries. As far as is currently known, the latest outbreak began in a small inland village called Ikoko Impenge, accessible only by motorbike. However, the outbreak only became known on May 8, when the DRC notified the World Health Organization (WHO) that there were two confirmed cases identified in another inland village, Bikoro. By Thursday, 23 deaths had occurred from Ebola cases in isolated rural villages, giving authorities a better chance of ring-fencing the outbreak before it could spread. On Thursday, the World Health Organization announced that the Ebola outbreak had reached a "new phase," as new Ebola cases were identified in Mbandaka, a large heavily populated urban city of about 1.2 million people. It's believed that the disease was brought to Mbandaka by two or three people who had attended the funeral of an Ebola victim in Bikoro. The spread of the outbreak to Mbandaka is "explosive," according to senior WHO official Peter Salama: <QUOTE>"This is a major development in the outbreak. We have urban Ebola, which is a very different animal from rural Ebola. The potential for an explosive increase in cases is now there. This puts a whole different lens on this outbreak and gives us increased urgency to move very quickly into Mbandaka to stop this new first sign of transmission."<END QUOTE> There are two reasons why the outbreak in Mbandaka could be explosive:
The World Health Organization on Friday is convening an emergency meeting to “consider the international risks” of the Ebola outbreak, and to decide whether to officially declare an international emergency. STAT News and BBC and Al Jazeera and World Health Organization and United Nations **** **** Applying lessons learned, WHO and MSF move quickly to contain Ebola outbreak **** The World Health Organization (WHO) was heavily criticized for moving too slowly to contain the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia from 2014 to 2016, and so is now moving quickly to try to contain the new outbreak in DRC. The Emergency Committee meeting that WHO is convening on Friday will decide whether to declare a "public health emergency of international concern," which would mean getting access to more resources. So this step may be taken even though the outbreak is still confined to DRC. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF, Doctors Without Borders) has sent multiple teams to hospitals in Mbandaka and Bikoro. MSF is sending tons of supplies to Mbandaka, including medical kits; protection and disinfection kits containing isolation items such as protective clothing, gloves, and boots; logistical and hygiene kits containing items such as plastic sheets, chlorine spray kits, and water treatment kits; and palliative drugs to treat Ebola symptoms, such as strong painkillers, anti-anxiety drugs, and antibiotics. A new experimental Ebola vaccine has been developed since the 2014-2016 outbreak, and MSF has 4,000 doses available to use to control the outbreak in Mbandaka. A vaccine cannot help someone who is already sick, but it will be used in conjunction with the methodology of "contact tracing." Once a potential victim is identified, then contact tracing means that potential contacts ae located, and their contacts are located, and so forth, and all of those people could be given the new vaccine. However, it's not clear that any of these methods will prevent an explosive spread of Ebola. In 2014, Ebola spread rapidly in Liberia's capital city Monrovia, particularly in the West Point slum area, with more than 70 000 people crowded together on a peninsula, with no running water, sanitation or garbage collection. If there is a similar slum area in Mbandaka, Kinshasa, or Brazzaville, then the spread could be equally massive. TRT World and Doctors Without Borders and AP and World Health Organization Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Ebola, Ikoko Impenge, Bikoro, Mbandaka, Kinshasa, Republic of The Congo, Brazzaville, World Health Organization, WHO, Peter Salama, Médecins Sans Frontières, Doctors Without Borders, MSF, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, Monrovia, West Point Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 19-May-18 World View -- Two protesters killed in southern Iran in latest violent clas - John J. Xenakis - 05-18-2018 *** 19-May-18 World View -- Two protesters killed in southern Iran in latest violent clashes with police This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iranian police clash with marginalized Qashqai tribe in southern Iran **** ![]() A picture of Kazerun on Friday shared on social media shows upturned and burnt out cars and wounded activists following violent scenes (NCRI) The latest in a series of anti-government protests in cities across Iran resulted in up to give protesters killed, and dozens more injured or arrested, by Iranian regime security forces in the last two days in the city of Kazerun (Kazeroon, Kazeroun) in southern Iran. The population of Kazerun is about 150,000. The people are from the Qashqai tribe, a minority group of about a million people in Iran that the government has failed to fully integrate into the mainstream of Iranian society. Although they are Shia Muslims, they have little use for organized religion and are not devout followers. They're a nomadic tribe, traditionally practicing pastoralism with sheep and goats, using camels as transports. They endure long seasonal migrations of hundreds of miles between lowland winter and highland summer pastures. This lifestyle is relative unique for Iran, and explains why they're not integrated into mainstream society. Since the 1800s, their fortunes have gone up and down depending on who was in power in Iran. During the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution civil war, they fought in support of the Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini and the revolutionary side to oust the Shah of Iran. After the revolution, Khomeini and the ruling regime looked upon the Qashqai with favor. But because the Qashqai were so different from the other Persian people, they quickly clashed with the new regime, which was following a psychopathically harsh version of Sharia law and imposing it on the entire country. The good feelings ended pretty quickly in 1980, when Qashqai leaders were arrested, but then escaped from prison and formed an anti-government insurgency. The regime captured the escaped Qashqai leaders and executed them. Nonetheless, the Qashqai had been harshly suppressed under the Shah, and benefitted greatly from the Khomeini regime in the 1980s. In particular, the government did not interfere with their pastoral activities nor their migration routes by which they traveled with their sheep and goats. The Qashqai have been increasingly marginalized since the 1980s, and they now harbor a great deal of anti-government sentiment. That sentiment spilled out onto the streets in the last few months. Last year, a government official proposed a plan to split the county of Kazerun into two, and make other administrative changes. Although some Qashqai supported the plan, most bitterly opposed it, particularly the undeveloped and poor districts which viewed the plan as further discrimination. Radio Farda and JCPA and Cultural Survival and Against The Compass **** **** Iranian police kill two as new protests erupt in Iran **** ![]() An Iranian Qashqai nomad carries a live goat from his herd The people of Kazerun have been peacefully protesting for weeks against the administrative plan to split the county. The government made some concessions, but apparently their sincerity was in doubt. On April 20, the protesters occupied the site for the city's Friday prayers. There were a number of extremely angry chants, including “Our enemy is right here; liars say it is America,” but there were other, more shocking slogans too, including “Be afraid when we get guns” and “We will kill the traitors.” These chants revived memories of massive protests in cities across the country starting in late December of last year. At that time, there were chants like, "Seyed Ali [Khamenei] shame on you let go of our country," "Death to the Dictator," "Death to Rouhani," "Leave Syria, think about us," and "Forget about Gaza and Lebanon; I’ll sacrifice my life for Iran." Iran is in a generational Awakening era, following the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution civil war. The psychopathic hardliners view any sort of peaceful protest as a revival of the civil war, and so even peaceful protests have to be crushed brutally. So the Iranian regime brutally crushed the protests in January, killing some protesters and arresting several thousand. The peaceful Kazerun protests of the last few weeks are being interpreted the same way, as an existential threat to the Khamenei regime, and so they have to be crushed brutally as well. On Thursday, the protesters gathered in the city's main square. Iranian security forces fired teargas at the protesters, who set the police station on fire. The security forces responded with live gunfire, killing as many as five protesters, while dozens more were injured and arrested. There's an irony about this situation in that it's occurring at the same time as Iran's government is criticizing the Israelis for the deaths of people from Hamas trying to break through the border fence from Gaza into Israel. Iran's government is criticizing the Israelis, but ignoring their own actions in Kazerun. The protesters themselves have noticed this hypocrisy in some of their chants: “The Government Supports Gazans, But Betrays Kazerun," and “Our Enemy is Here, not in the US." Iran Wire and Deutsche Welle and CNN (14-Jan-2018) and JCPA Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Qashqai tribe, Kazerun, Kazeroon, Kazeroun, Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei Generational Dynamics, Iran, Qashqai tribe, Kazerun, Kazeroon, Kazeroun, Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 05-19-2018 I do not know if it is a good parallel, but the Romanian Revolution that ultimately toppled the Ceausescu dynasty-in-formation began in a repression of an ethnic minority -- the Hungarians -- over some religious protests against the infernal regime. People in distress by then did not care that it was an ethnic minority that was getting the worst first in Timisoara. They quit accepting excuses including demonizing lies about those rising against the dictatorship. OK, Iran is more repressive, and more armed-to-the-teeth than Ceausescu's Iran. A general rule is worthy of remembrance: revolutions succeed, whether in Russia in 1917 or the Philippines in 1986 (talk about evil and good) when the army and the police force decide on behalf of the revolutionaries. 20-May-18 World View -- China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing - John J. Xenakis - 05-19-2018 *** 20-May-18 World View -- China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing for war This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing for war **** ![]() China's H-6K-a bomber is a modernized version of a 60-year-old Soviet design -- is the only mass-produced bomber in the world today (Xinhua) While 99% of the world was hypnotized by Markle Sparkle, China made a major escalation in its illegal militarization of the South China Sea, and said it was preparing for war. China announced on Friday that it has begun landing bombers on the artificial islands it created in the South China sea, in preparation for the Battle of the South China Sea. The announcement appeared on China's Ministry of Defense web site: <QUOTE>"A division of the Air Force’s aviation division has recently organized multi-model multi-bombers such as the -6K to carry out training on islands and reefs to take off and land in the southern seas, tempering the ability to “reach all regions, conduct full-time air strikes, and strike in all directions." ... The aviation division equipped with the H-6K and other multi-type bombers, keeping in mind the strategic requirements of “ideological and political should be strong, have good skills to fight and must be strong in fighting style”, are fully committed to advancing training in the new era and are preparing for the West Pacific and the Battle of the South China Sea."<END QUOTE> This is another major escalation in China's preparation for war. The bombers are landing on the artificial islands that China constructed in violation of international law, as the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal. China has repeatedly lied and hid its true intentions. Originally, the artificial islands were going to be for tourists and scientists, which was a lie. Then the military installations would be purely defensive, which was another lie. And now they're part of a massive militarization in anticipation, when preparation has been completed, to launch a full-scale war on America and its allies. Chinese military facilities in the South China Sea include air bases, radar and communications systems, naval facilities and defensive weaponry including landing strips able to accommodate military planes. This announcement comes just two weeks after China deployed offensive cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea. Friday's announcement referred to the artificial island off Woody Island, in the Paracel Islands. It's believed that this island is a blueprint for deployments to the Spratly Islands farther south, at its outposts at Subi, Mischief and Fiery Cross Reefs. In all cases, these reefs can accommodate bombers, as well as large transport, patrol, and refueling aircraft. China Daily and China Ministry of Defense (Trans) and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS/AMTI) and Popular Science **** **** China prepares for war on multiple fronts **** On June 16 of last year, China sent troops and construction workers to begin road construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent intention of annexing the region. At Bhutan's request, India sent in troops to prevent the annexation. Tensions escalated for weeks, and then suddenly and unexpectedly on August 28 the crisis ended when China backed off. No one seriously believed that China backed off because they had lost interest. The most likely conclusion was that China was not ready for a full-scale war with India, and wanted to wait until it WAS ready for a full-scale war. In the meantime, satellite images show that China has military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau. China has positioned thousands of troops, and built two helicopter platforms, and dozens of houses and stores. Recently, China's Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its claim that Doklam belongs to China: <QUOTE>"Donglong (Doklam) belongs to China because we have historical conventions. China's activities there (Doklam) are within our sovereign rights. There is no such thing as changing status quo."<END QUOTE> Furthermore, it emerged that Chinese troops have made new roads and other construction to gain access to another region of Bhutan. So few people doubt that China has not given up, but is moving forward with a large military buildup to use for an invasion at a time of its choosing. As we reported last week, China says that the reason that it's performing aggressive military exercises around Taiwan is with the intention of threatening Taiwan. Once again, China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan at a time of its choosing. Similar aggressive moves are occurring around Japan's Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Writing these articles makes it starkly clear how much utter craziness there is in the world. Would America be better off if it invaded and annexed Cuba? Would Britain be better off if it invaded and annexed Ireland? No one would even consider such insane moves. So then why on earth does China think it will be better off by invading and annexing Doklam Plateau? One doesn't have to be a full-fledged pacifist to see how insane this is, but that's what the Chinese are doing. China has repeatedly hidden its intentions, and will continue to do so until it's prepared to launch its attack. China is following exactly the same path that the Nazis followed. Xi Jinping's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is the same as Hitler's National Socialism. Like the Nazis, the Chinese believe that they're a Master Race that will conquer the world. They'd have to be crazy to believe that they could succeed at that, but the Chinese are crazy. And they'll do exactly what the Nazis did -- bring destruction and catastrophe to themselves and the entire world. New Delhi TV and The Print (India) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and The Diplomat Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, H-6K bomber, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA, Woody Island, Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 20-May-18 World View -- China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing - Cynic Hero '86 - 05-20-2018 (05-19-2018, 10:04 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Writing these articles makes it starkly clear how much utter craziness An aggressive country conquering a small island and attacking a border ridge is a far cry from "conquer the world". You consistently refuse to contemplate a war over Taiwan being just that: a war over Taiwan. Nor is your delusional notion that China would never build aircraft carriers has any basis in reality. All public evidence indicates that Taiwan is the fundamental objective of Chinese aggression and all evidence indicates that a Chinese carrier fleet is part of China's long-term plans. RE: 20-May-18 World View -- China escalates militarization of South China Sea, preparing - John J. Xenakis - 05-20-2018 (05-20-2018, 01:58 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote:(05-19-2018, 10:04 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Writing these articles makes it starkly clear how much utter craziness You seem to be anxious to argue about this article, emitting your usual nonsense. The Breitbart posting of this article has gotten over 800 comments so far, and some of the arguments seem to be right up your alley. You ought to take a look. You may find the comments enjoyable. http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2018/05/20/20-may-18-world-view-china-escalates-militarization-of-south-china-sea-preparing-for-war/ 21-May-18 World View -- Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Id - John J. Xenakis - 05-20-2018 *** 21-May-18 World View -- Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Stage is set for a new humanitarian catastrophe in Syria's Idlib province **** ![]() Two women bid farewell to their deceased families on March 24, before fleeing Ghouta for Idlib province (Syria Deeply) The army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is in the final weeks of regaining control of areas around Damascus that it lost to opposition forces, mainly in the 2013-14 time frame to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). ISIS was composed mainly of foreign fighters that had come from over 80 to fight Bashar al-Assad, and they were opposed not only by the al-Assad regime but also by local Syrian anti-Assad militias. Among these Syrian anti-Assad militias are the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). They also include "Jaysh al-Islam" or "Army of Islam." Al-Assad has used the same methods to take control of Eastern Aleppo a year ago, and Eastern Ghouta and Douma in the last few months. There's massive bombing by Syrian and Russian warplanes of homes, hospitals, schools and marketing, particularly targeting women and children. Because many people, especially women and children, hide out in basements from the bombs, al-Assad drops barrel bombs containing chlorine. Since chlorine is heavier than air, it drifts down into the basements and forces the women and children into the streets, where al-Assad's bombs can kill many of them all at once. In addition, al-Assad has used Sarin gas for mass slaughter on occasions. After several months of this bombardment, international pressure has caused al-Assad to agree to allow the anti-Assad militias to give up their weapons, and flee the violence along with their families by traveling to Idlib province in northwestern Syria along the border with Turkey. Tens of thousands of refugees from Aleppo and Ghouta have traveled to Idlib province, and Idlib province is now a smoking cauldron. There are multiple competing militias all across the province, some of them moderate, and some al-Qaeda linked. New militias are being formed all the time, as tensions increase because of overcrowding. Some of the militias get along with each other, and in other cases they fight and kill each other. Now that al-Assad is finishing up in Ghouta, he's beginning to turn his attention to Idlib province, where he plans to take control in the same way. But while Aleppo and Ghouta each started with about 300,000-400,000 people, Idlib has 2.5 million people. Furthermore, while Idlib was the location to which families fled from violence, there's no place else to go to escape Idlib. If, as seems likely, al-Assad begins to use missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine and Sarin gas on women and children in Idlib, there will humanitarian catastrophe several times worse than we've seen in Ghouta or Aleppo. Syria Deeply (29-Mar) and Enab Baladi (10-May) and United Nations and TRT World (Turkey) **** **** Turkey warns Syria's Bashar al-Assad not to attack Idlib province **** Turkey is responsible for enforcing a ceasefire in Idlib province, under the terms of agreements from the "Astana peace process," a series of meetings that took place in Astana Kazakhstan between Turkey, Russia and Iran. Those meetings defined four "de-escalation zones," and the participants are responsible for enforcing a ceasefire in them. The whole Astana agreement about de-escalation zones has turned out to be a big joke. Not only did Russia and Iran not make any attempt to enforce a ceasefire in the de-escalation zones they were responsible for, they actually did the opposite. Russia, in particular, was particularly bloody in its warplane attacks on civilians in de-escalation zones. Bashar al-Assad has already begun bombing in the Idlib de-escalation zone. The whole de-escalation zone plan has proven to be a farce and a lie. However, Turkey claims it will enforce a ceasefire in Idlib province, which is the de-escalation zone that it is responsible for. Turkey has been setting up observation posts within Idlib province, from which the ceasefire can be monitored. Turkey set up its 12th and final observation posts on Wednesday of last week. Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu last week warned the Syrian government not to attack Idlib province, since any such attack will lead to a "catastrophe": <QUOTE>"Currently the most important issue is for the ceasefire not be violated in Syria. If this is achieved, political settlement will become closer. There are many fragmented terror groups. Our intelligence service and the General Staff are dealing with the matter. We have achieved certain results. If the Syrian regime launches an attack tomorrow under the pretext of fighting against terrorists, it will be a catastrophe. This is why we are monitoring the situation and have established our observation posts."<END QUOTE> So, Cavusoglu is saying that a Syrian attack will be a "catastrophe," but he doesn't say that anything will be done in response to such an attack. In fact, each of these 12 observation posts consists of a few tanks and a few Turkish soldiers. The sites are typically on the top of a hill, so that as much countryside as possible can be observed, but it's clear that Turkish forces can do nothing to stop fighting among the local militias, or to prevent Syrian or Russian bombing with Idlib. All they can do is "observe." Anadolu and Middle East Eye and Sputnik (Moscow) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Ghouta, Idlib province Turkey, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Idlib, Astana, Kazakhstan, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jaysh al-Islam, Army of Islam, Astana, Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Mevlut Cavusoglu Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 22-May-18 World View -- China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births - John J. Xenakis - 05-21-2018 *** 22-May-18 World View -- China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China will end 'one-child policy' and all limits on births **** ![]() From 2007: Boys! Boys! Boys! Chinese maternity ward: Five boys (white) and three girls (pink) (CNN) Since the 1979, China has attempted to control the size of its population by adopting a "one-child policy" which limited the number of children that a couple could have to just one. Now the government in Beijing is realizing that this is a demographic disaster in two ways. First, China's population is aging rapidly, and pension payments are not keeping up. Second, since parents wanted to have a son more than a daughter, there's a huge gender imbalance. Out of China’s population of 1.4 billion, there are nearly 34 million more males than females Now China is considering removing all limits to birth. The new rules will take effect at the end of this year or in 2019. This announcement has the feeling of a move of desperation. The one-child policy was reformed in 2013, when China announced that couples where one parent is an only child would be allowed to have a second child. When that policy failed miserably, China announced in October 2015 that all couples would be permitted to have two children. Even that change had almost no effect at all. In Beijing, for example, just 6.7% of those eligible applied to have a second child. Couples are complaining that they can barely afford the costs of raising one child, so they don't want to risk the financial burden of a second child. To alleviate the financial burdens, China's State Council proposed measures ranging from taxation incentives to introducing paternity leave to boost birth rate, but demographic experts said the cost would be huge. China's birth rate has been dipping below the "replacement level," necessary to keep the population growing. As things stand, China's population will peak at about 1.45 billion in 2030. Furthermore, it's workforce will age to the point where those 45-69 will account for over 1/3 of the population. China's president Xi Jinping has promised to build a world-class military force. His plans face many serious problems, and one of the most serious is that China's youth in the 2020s will be too busy producing food and medicines for any aging population. Bloomberg and South China Morning Post (26-Jan-2018) and Bloomberg (26-Jun-2017) **** **** China's gender imbalance caused by one-child policy has been disastrous **** There are 114 boys born for every 100 girls in China. In rural China, the figure is even greater, with 130 boys for every 100 girls. Out of China’s population of 1.4 billion, there are nearly 34 million more males than females. On average in the world, humans give birth to 103 boys for every 100 girls. The number of boys is greater since men are more likely than women to be killed in war. But 114 to 100 is not expected. Theoretically, the one-child policy should not affect the gender ratio at all. If you're going to restrict the number of births, then theoretically you would restrict the births of boys and girls equally. But that's not what happened in China. If a woman was to be restricted to having just one child, then she and her husband often wanted that child to be a boy, rather than a girl, since a boy would be able to support his parents as they grew older. Female infanticide increased when the one-child policy came into effect, taking advantage of a loophole that if your one child died, then you were allowed to have another child. Ultrasound tests became generally available in the 1980s, and although they were banned in 1994, women still were able to find them, and abort a baby if it was a girl. This created the gender imbalance. The disastrous consequences of the one-child policy are now being felt today, as the children who were born in the 1980s-90s are coming of age. Millions of men are unable to find girlfriends and wives, which creates not only a loneliness problem, but also a risk to the stability of society. If there are too few girls, then they're likely to be tempted into prostitution, or to be abducted and sold for human trafficking. China is not alone in this situation. Birth rates have been falling in countries around the world. In the United States, the fertility rate has fallen to a historic low. The trend is being driven by a decline in birthrates for teens and 20-somethings. The birthrate for women in their 30s and 40s increased — but not enough to make up for the lower numbers in their younger peers. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is the reflection of the baby boom that occurred at the end of World War II. Women were reluctant to have children during the Great Depression and WW II, but when the war ended, there was an explosion of births, giving rise to what demographers call the Baby Boom generation. Today we're seeing a situation where there's a lot of anxiety about the future. There's been a financial crisis, there are multiple wars in progress in the Mideast, and war with North Korea and China is on the horizon. Many women do not wish to have a baby under these circumstances, so we're seeing a drop in fertility rate. But after the next world war ends, then we'll see a new baby boom. Washington Post and Reuters and Time (27-July-2009) and National Geographic (13-Nov-2015) and Washington Post (30-June-2017) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, one-child policy, Xi Jinping Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 23-May-18 World View -- European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending p - John J. Xenakis - 05-22-2018 *** 23-May-18 World View -- European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending proposals This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending proposals **** ![]() Five-Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio, left, and La Liga leader Matteo Salvini (AFP) Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded in 1472, is the world's oldest operating bank. It may also be the world's worst managed bank, since by 2016 it had $55.2 billion in bad loans on its books. Even worse, salesmen working for the bank sold people high-risk high-yield bonds in place of ordinary savings accounts, so a collapse of the bank would mean hundreds of thousands of people, including many pensioners, would have their life savings wiped out. In fact, Italy's entire banking system was close to collapse. There were €350 billion in bad loans on the books of Italy's banks, a third of the eurozone's total bad debt. It's a violation of European Central Bank (ECB) rules for a member country to bail out its own banks, since that forces the taxpayers to pay for the mistakes of the bank managers, who should be held to account for their mistakes. Nonetheless, an MBS collapse would have been so disastrous for Italy's economy, that the EU was forced to agree to allow a bailout in July of last year, adding to Italy's already huge debt. Today, Italian debt stands at around €2.17 trillion, or 133% of gross domestic product (GDP). That's worse than Greece's situation when it was being bailed out in 2010. At that time, Greece's debt as "only" 127% of GDP. Furthermore, Italy has been struggling with years of crisis. The youth unemployment rate has remained stubbornly well above 30%, and Italy has felt abandoned by the EU as it had to deal with hundreds of thousands of migrants arriving on it shores across the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. As I've been writing for years, most nations of the world have entered a generational Crisis era, and in a generational Crisis era, nationalistic and xenophobic behaviors of the population increase. This is happening in countries around the world. You can argue whether this is good or bad, but it's like arguing whether a cyclone is good or bad. It doesn't matter whether you think it's good or bad, since it's going to happen anyway. In Italy, these nationalistic and xenophobic behaviors are converging into a potential major crisis, as it now appears that Italy is about to form a government which is anti-euro, anti-EU, anti-immigrant, and with no fiscal discipline whatsoever. Italy's March elections failed to produce a governing coalition, and so Italy hasn't had a government since then. The political fighting has been raucous and bitter, and two parties that were particularly bitter rivals were the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S) that got 32% of the vote, and the right-wing La Liga (The League) that got 17% of the vote. These two parties are far apart on many issues, but they do share a nationalistic anti-euro attitude, a xenophobic anti-immigrant attitude, and a complete lack of fiscal discipline, and so much to the shock and surprise of many EU politicians, they are forming a governing coalition, based on those principles. Luigi Di Maio is the leader of M5S, and Matteo Salvini is the leader of The League. However, neither of them will be prime minister. Reports indicate that they have jointly agreed that Giuseppe Conte, an obscure law professor, should be chosen as prime minister. Conte is a professor of public administration law at the University of Florence and is a political novice, so the obvious intent is that he would be a figurehead and Di Maio and Salvini would control him. BBC (25-June-2017) and Deutsche Welle and International Banker(6-Oct-2017) Related Articles
**** **** Key proposals from Italy's M5S-League coalition **** Matteo Salvini is a 45 year old member of Generation-X, a generation known for its destructiveness and self-destructiveness. Luigi Di Maio is a 31 year old member of the Millennial generation, a generation known for its lack of knowledge about almost anything, and a belief that everything should be free. Those generational descriptions are, of course, stereotypes, and apply only to a minority of each generation. However, the policies proposed by Salvini and Di Maio suggest that the stereotypes apply fully to them. Here are some of the proposals in their policy document:
The nightmare scenario is an Italy fiscal crisis similar to the Greece fiscal crisis. Italy's economy is ten times as big as Greece's, so an Italy fiscal crisis would be a catastrophe. AFP and Pound Sterling Live and Bloomberg and AFP Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS, Five-Star Movement, M5S, Luigi Di Maio, La Liga, The League, Matteo Salvini, Giuseppe Conte, Libya, Mediterranean Sea, Russia Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 23-May-18 World View -- European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending p - Warren Dew - 05-23-2018 (05-22-2018, 10:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: How else are they going to fund their proposals than with an EU bailout? RE: 23-May-18 World View -- European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending p - John J. Xenakis - 05-23-2018 (05-22-2018, 10:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: (05-23-2018, 09:13 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > How else are they going to fund their proposals than with an EU Well, since leaving the eurozone didn't make it into the policy document, we don't know the answer. However there was some talk about repudiating their debts -- simply not paying them. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 05-23-2018 LOL a selfish boomer is angry that Italians are not willingly subjecting themselves to genocide in the name of "good intentions". Italians are implementing their fundamental right; that Italy remains Italian. Westerners are not going to be receptacles of human rights doctrine simply so that boomers could feel "spiritually cleansed". |