Generational Dynamics World View

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RE: 23-May-18 World View -- European markets in turmoil over Italy's unbridled spending p - Ragnarök_62 - 05-23-2018

(05-23-2018, 09:13 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 10:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

Leaving the eurozone: This is supported by both parties,
but it's been removed from the policy proposal, apparently to avoid
scaring people.

How else are they going to fund their proposals than with an EU bailout?

1. Default and just leave, I reckon. I'd love this kind of fuck you to big banks, no matter where the dwell.
2. Wrt the new Lira, <CTL> P.

Of course, they'd get inflation out the wazoo, but things suck pretty bad now.

24-May-18 World View -- Australia-China relations in crisis after revelation of Chine - John J. Xenakis - 05-23-2018

*** 24-May-18 World View -- Australia-China relations in crisis after revelation of Chinese bribery scandal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Australia-China relations in crisis after revelation of Chinese bribery scandal
Andrew Hastie's explosive speech identifying Chau Chak-wing
China blames Australia and threatens retaliation

****
**** Australia-China relations in crisis after revelation of Chinese bribery scandal
****

[Image: g180225b.jpg]

China's foreign minister Wang Yi and Australia's foreign minister Julie Bishop, on 7-Feb-2017

China is expressing renewed fury at Australian politicians after
an explosive speech delivered to Parliament on Tuesday evening
accused a prominent wealthy Australian politician of Chinese
descent of an explosive bribery participant.

The politician, Dr. Chau Chak-wing, is accused of being linked to the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and of being a previously unnamed
co-conspirator in a 2013 case where United Nations General Assembly
president John Ashe was bribed with $200,000, along with tens of
thousands of dollars in custom suits and clothes, to obtain UN backing
for a number of multi-billion dollar Chinese infrastructure projects
in including Antigua and Barbuda, and other countries. Before
becoming president of the General Assembly, Ashe was the ambassador to
the UN for Antigua and Barbuda.

Ashe died before he could be convicted, but two co-conspirators
were convicted by the US Dept. of Justice in New York in 2016:

<QUOTE>"Shiwei Yan, a/k/a “Sheri Yan,” the co-founder and
former chief executive officer of the Global Sustainability
Foundation, was sentenced in Manhattan federal court today to 20
months in prison for paying more than $800,000 in bribes to John
W. Ashe (“Ashe”), the late former Permanent Representative of
Antigua and Barbuda (“Antigua”) to the United Nations (“UN”) and
68th President of the UN General Assembly. Yan pled guilty in
January 2016, and was sentenced today by U.S. District Judge
Vernon S. Broderick.

U.S. Attorney Bharara stated: “As she admitted in court at her
guilty plea, Shiwei Yan bribed the President of the UN General
Assembly with hundreds of thousands of dollars to further private
business interests. For her role in corrupting the United
Nations, Yan will serve time in a federal prison.”"<END QUOTE>

Another co-conspirator, Heidi Hong Piao, a/k/a “Heidi Park”, was
convicted at the same time. The complaint also named a third
co-conspirator, a "Chinese real estate developer" only identified as
"CC-3":

<QUOTE>"YAN and Piao also arranged for ASHE to be paid
$200,000 in exchange for attending a private conference in China
in Ashe’s official capacity, hosted by a Chinese real estate
developer identified as “CC-3” in the Complaint.

During the scheme, YAN and Piao also arranged for Ashe to receive
tens of thousands of dollars in custom suits and clothes.

In imposing sentence, Judge Broderick said, “To those bent on
perverting decision-making” through bribery, “this simply will not
be tolerated...there are consequences to these
actions.”"<END QUOTE>

The mysterious CC-3 was not identified by name, but was known to the
FBI. Recently, politicians in Australia's government attended a
confidential briefing by the FBI, and during the course of that
briefing, CC-3 was identified as wealthy Australian politician
Dr. Chau Chak-wing. South China Morning Post and Sydney Morning Herald (7-Oct-2015) and US Dept. of Justice (29-Jul-2016) and Business Insider

****
**** Andrew Hastie's explosive speech identifying Chau Chak-wing
****

On Tuesday evening, a Liberal backbencher Andrew Hastie gave a speech
identifying Chau, thus breaking the confidential agreement, taking
advantage of Australia's Constitution that allows a parliamentarian to
say anything in parliament and not be prosecuted.

<QUOTE>"Today I raise a matter before the House that is of
great importance to the Australian people. It is a matter that
poses a threat to our democratic tradition, particularly the
freedom of the press, and our national sovereignty. I refer to the
threat of foreign interference in our political institutions. ...

We live in a rapidly changing world. We are watching the rise of
authoritarian states. Those states are conducting foreign
interference operations across Western democracies. In Australia
it is clear that the Chinese Communist Party is working to
covertly interfere with our media and universities and also to
influence our political processes and public debates. ...

The central pillar of the government's counter foreign
interference strategy is sunlight. That's why we're seeking to
introduce a new Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme. The
principle is simple. If a person or entity engages with the
Australian political landscape on behalf of a foreign state or
principal, they must register accordingly. This will give the
Australian public and decision-makers proper visibility when
foreign states or individuals may be seeking to influence
Australian's political processes and public debates. ...

For reasons that are best undisclosed, the United States
government did not seek to charge CC-3 for his involvement in the
bribery of John Ashe. The bribery does, however, raise the
question: what were the objectives of CC-3 in securing Ashe's
attendance at the conference?"<END QUOTE>

Hastie explained that CC-3 had a leadership role in China's United
Front. In previous articles, I've described China's "United Front
Work Department" something that China's president Xi Jingping has said
was China's "Magic Weapon."

Officially, the United Front focuses on building support for the
Communist Party in China, but it's become a coercive propaganda tool
targeting Chinese globally, especially in Australia, New Zealand, the
U.S., and Canada, but in other countries as well. The agency
particularly surveils and targets Chinese students and Chinese
students abroad and in foreign universities to adopt language that
favors pro-Beijing policies, such as delegitimizing Taiwan, and
Western ideals and values, such as liberal democracy, Christianity, or
Falun Gong.

Andrew Hastie described CC-3's involvement in the United Front in
Tuesday evening's speech, using CC-3's Mandarin name Zhou Zerong:

<QUOTE>"The United Front is a platform of the Chinese
Communist Party that is tasked with influence operations for the
People's Republic of China. It aims to influence the choices,
direction and loyalties of its targets, with a particular focus
overseas on foreign political and business elites. The primary
objective of the United Front is to shape thinking and attitudes
in a way that is favorable to China. Mao Zedong, for good reasons,
described the United Front as one of the three magic weapons of
the Chinese Communist Party. Zhou, or CC-3, was no stranger to the
United Front. He had assumed leadership of an organization
intimately involved with it. In the final paragraph of the cable,
Goldberg wrote that the Guangdong Overseas Chinese Businessmen's
Association was essentially a creature of the Chinese Communist
Party's United Front program."<END QUOTE>

Hastie concluded his speech by naming Chau specifically:

<QUOTE>"As chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on
Intelligence and Security I led a delegation to the United States
last month to discuss our espionage and foreign interference
legislation with US counterparts. During discussions with United
States authorities I confirmed the long-suspected identity of
CC-3. It is now my duty to inform the House and the Australian
people that CC-3 is Dr Chau Chak Wing, the same man who
co-conspired to bribe the president of the United Nations General
Assembly, John Ashe, the same man with extensive contacts in the
Chinese Communist Party, including the United Front. I share it
with the House because I believe it to be in the national
interest. My duty first and foremost is to the Australian people
and to the preservation of the ideals and democratic traditions of
our Commonwealth. That tradition includes a free press. I thank
the House."<END QUOTE>

Australian Broadcasting and Australian Parliament and Daily Mail (London)

****
**** China blames Australia and threatens retaliation
****

Andrew Hastie's explosive revelations were not previously revealed
to prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who has recently been on a
charm offensive to improve relations with China.

Relations between China and Australia have been increasingly tense for
a number of reasons. One is that China's illegal militarization of the South China Sea
is seen as a
military and commercial threat to Australia. Furthermore, as we reported in February,
a new book
extensively documents China's infiltration into Australia's
organizations. The new charges that prominent Australian politician
Chau Chak-wing participated in a Chinese Communist Party bribery
operation, and had a leadership position in the powerful United Front
espionage organization only add to the concerns that many Australians
have about the infiltration of China into Australia.

The increasing hostility of Australian politicians to China has
brought some sharp responses from China itself. In Wednesday's
press conference by China's foreign ministry, the spokesman said:

<QUOTE>"The China-Australia relations have recently
encountered difficulties, which leads to problems in our
cooperation in some areas, and that is something China does not
wish to see. ... [The] Australian side must first of all address
its problem of perception, put China's development in a positive
perspective and truly take China's development as a positive
factor, instead of looking China through tinted glasses. Once the
problem of perception addressed, the necessary conditions for the
true improvement and sound and steady development of
China-Australia relations will be created."<END QUOTE>

China's state media is taking the editorial position that
Australia should be punished for its "arrogant" attitude:

<QUOTE>"Sino-Australia relations have remained on a steady
downward slope since last year due to distorted reporting on
behalf of Australian media and remarks made by Australian
politicians on China’s alleged interference and infiltration in
Australian internal affairs.

Such remarks have not only created obstacles in the development of
bilateral relations between the two countries, but also have had a
negative impact on Chinese living in Australia. Australian
officials recently made unfriendly remarks toward China, actively
hurling accusations. ...

It is high time China demonstrated how it sticks to its principles
in regard to its relations with Australia, so as to make Australia
pay for its arrogant attitude toward China over the past two
years. ...

China has been very friendly toward Australia, but their arrogant
attitudes in return over the past two years have become a virtual
example of what it means to "bite the hand that feeds."

Australia's image among Chinese people has grown increasingly
negative due to its warped accusations hurled at China. China does
not need to spend time and effort seeking out revenge against
Australia.

The cooling of bilateral relations between the two may last for a
while, perhaps a few years or even longer. That would be a good
lesson for Australia to learn, while also setting a precedent for
other nations to follow in that there are no benefits for any
country that chooses to take provocative measures against
China."<END QUOTE>

It seems that relations between Australia and China will not improve
much in the months to come, and in fact will probably deteriorate
further. Business Insider and China Foreign Ministry and Global Times (China) and New Daily (Australia)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, China,
Chau Chak-wing, CC-3, Zhou Zerong,
John Ashe, Antigua and Barbuda, UN General Assembly,
Andrew Hastie, Malcolm Turnbull,
China, Xi Jinping, Magic Weapons, United Front Work Department

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit - John J. Xenakis - 05-24-2018

*** 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit
China prepares to station thousands of troops in South China Sea

****
**** North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit
****

[Image: g180524b.jpg]

Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump

In my opinion, Thursday's cancellation of the planned June 12 summit
meeting between president Donald Trump and North Korea's child
dictator Kim Jong-un is a major diplomatic disaster for Kim.

Two weeks ago, when talk of the summit meeting was still in the
Pollyannaish honeymoon stages, I wrote "13-May-18 World View -- Likely outcome of Trump-Kim North Korea summit: Mutual recriminations and accusations."
I gave a list
of reasons, but the main reason were that the core objectives of the
US and North Korea were in conflict and couldn't be reconciled or
compromised. These conflicting objectives are:

North Korea will not give up its nuclear missile development,
having tortured, starved and brutalized their own population for three
decades, under the promise that one day North Korea would be a nuclear
power on a peer with the United States. North Korea will not give up
its objective of having an arsenal of nuclear missiles targeting the
United States. In my opinion, if Kim Jong-un seriously wanted to give
up nuclear development, he would be shot and killed by his own
generals.
As stated many, many times in 2017, by many administration
officials, the Donald Trump administration will not permit North Korea
to develop a nuclear weapon that can target the United States
mainland.

These are incompatible core objectives that cannot be resolved except
by military action. The Trump administration has made numerous
promises in the hope of getting North Korea to denuclearize --
promises that Kim Jong-un would be safe and remain in power, promises
that sanctions would be lifted, promises that enormous aid would pour
into North Korea, making the country economically equivalent to South
Korea. Kim would get all that, simply be denuclearizing which, in my
opinion, will never happen except with military action.

So given those realities, what have the North Koreans been up to these
last few weeks? In my opinion, they have had one and only one
objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump administration to lift the
sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons and missile development.

They've succeeded in this objective several times in the last three
decades, most recently in 2008. They committed to ending nuclear
weapons development and even blew up a nuclear cooling tower to prove
it. The Bush administration accepted their promises and agreed that
all sanctions should be lifted. The sanctions were lifted, and North
Korea immediately resumed nuclear weapons development. They
completely humiliated and diplomatically defeated the United States
and the Western world. It was a total North Korea diplomatic victory
of enormous proportions.

So every step that North Korea has taken in this year has been with
only one objective: To repeat the diplomatic victory of 2008, to get
the sanctions lifted, while continuing nuclear weapons and missile
development.

The Trump administration has outplayed North Korea at every stage:

North Korea held a massive charm offensive during the Seoul
Olympics games. The US let it play out, repeatedly saying that it's
nice but North Korea has to denuclearize.
North Korea proposed a summit meeting between Kim and Trump. This
was a negotiating ploy. Kim does not want a summit, because they have
no intention of denuclearizing.
Trump immediately accepted the summit with no preconditions. In
my opinion, this was an enormous shock to North Korea and an enormous
diplomatic defeat for them, because they never believed that Trump
would accept. This was a major example of how Trump's negotiating
skills exceed those of the isolated North Koreans.
They put on a show on Thursday of dismantling the Punggye-ri
nuclear test site, located in Mount Mantap, but this was an empty
gesture, since the test site was no longer usable anyway.
For weeks, North Korea has shown all signs of being in a state of
total panic over the summit. They've made ambiguous statements about
denuclearization, they canceled a planning meeting with South Korea,
they canceled a planning meeting with Americans, and in the last two
weeks they've completely abandoned the charm offensive and returned to
full-fledged bellicose and offensive anti-American rhetoric.
In my opinion, they used bellicose, offensive anti-American
rhetoric in a last-ditch attempt to incite Trump to return to the same
kind of bellicose "little rocket man" language, so that Kim could
claim that Trump didn't want peace.
The second major diplomatic disaster for North Korea, in my
opinion, occurred on Thursday, when Trump announced in very polite,
diplomatic language that the summit could not be held in view of North
Korea's behavior and rhetoric, but that it might be held at a later
time.

The letter that Donald Trump sent to Kim Jong-un on Thursday was, in
my opinion, a negotiating masterpiece:

<QUOTE>"Dear Mr. Chairman:

We greatly appreciate your time, patience, and effort with respect
to our recent negotiations and discussions relative to a summit
long sought by both parties, which was scheduled to take place on
June 12 in Singapore. We were informed that the meeting was
requested by North Korea, but that to us is totally irrelevant. I
was very much looking forward to being there with you. Sadly,
based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your
most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time,
to have this long-planned meeting. Therefore, please let this
letter serve to represent that the Singapore summit, for the good
of both parties, but to the detriment of the world, will not take
place. You talk about nuclear capabilities, but ours are so
massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be
used.

I felt a wonderful dialogue was building up between you and me,
and ultimately, it is only that dialogue that matters. Some day, I
look very much forward to meeting you. In the meantime, I want to
thank you for the release of the hostages who are now home with
their families. That was a beautiful gesture and was very much
appreciated. If you change your mind having to do with this most
important summit, please do not hesitate to call me or write. The
world, and North Korea in particular, has lost a great opportunity
for lasting peace and great prosperity and wealth. This missed
opportunity is a truly sad moment in history."<END QUOTE>

This letter has left North Korea in a desperate diplomatic position.
They had hoped to use diplomacy to force Trump to agree to lift the
sanctions. They proposed a summit meeting that they didn't want, but
it was accepted anyway. They tried to sabotage the summit meeting,
but that backfired and they're receiving the blame for the canceled
summit meeting. Now they have to try something else.

Trump's cancellation of the summit meeting was another negotiating
ploy, with the purpose of gaining a negotiating advantage. It is not
the end of the story. The North Koreans are already issuing
conciliatory statements, looking to gain the moral high ground after
Trump's cancellation. It's still possible that the summit meeting
will be held. But the two core irreconcilable objectives that I
listed at the beginning of this article are still in place. CNN and White House and KCNA

Related Articles:

****
**** China prepares to station thousands of troops in South China Sea
****

Satellite imagery has revealed that China has built hundreds of
buildings on the artificial island that China has created illegally on
Subi Reef in the South China Sea. This is on top of existing military
infrastructure that includes emplacements for missiles, runways,
extensive storage facilities and a range of installations that can
track satellites, foreign military activity and communications.
Analysts say that the buildings could house 1500-2400 troops.

This revelation occurs just a few days after China announced that it
has begun landing bombers on the artificial islands it created in the
South China sea, in preparation for the Battle of the South China Sea.

And that announcement came just two weeks after China deployed
offensive cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea.

The Pentagon on Thursday withdrew an invitation for China to take part
in the 2018 Rim of the Pacific Drill, the world's biggest
multinational naval drill, scheduled for this summer. The purpose of
the drill is to help build cooperation among nations, and China was
invited to take part in the last two drills, in 2014 and 2016.

The Pentagon withdrew China's invitation this time because China's
activities in the South China Sea "raise tensions and destabilize the
region." Sputnik and Business Insider and South China Morning Post

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Punggye-ri, Mount Mantap,
China, South China Sea, Subi Reef,
Rim of the Pacific drill

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

26-May-18 World View -- Russia gains foothold in Central African Republic, displacing - John J. Xenakis - 05-25-2018

*** 26-May-18 World View -- Russia gains foothold in Central African Republic, displacing France

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia gains foothold in Central African Republic, displacing France
The rise of Russia's military contractor Wagner Private Military Company (Wagner PMC)

****
**** Russia gains foothold in Central African Republic, displacing France
****

[Image: g180525b.jpg]

Map of Central African Republic, showing zones of influence of armed groups (Conflict Intelligence Team)

On October 9, 2017, president Faustin-Archange Touadera of the Central
African Republic (CAR) flew to Sochi, Russia, and met privately with
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. The readout from the meeting
said:

<QUOTE>"The officials reaffirmed their countries’ resolve to
build up practical cooperation in the political, trade, economic
and cultural areas and pointed to the considerable potential for
partnership in mineral resources exploration, in the energy area,
as well as in the delivery of Russian industrial equipment and
farming machinery to the Central African Republic."<END QUOTE>

Although the exact text of the agreement has remained secret, it has
unfolded over time to mean that Russian mercenaries and military
advisers have been protecting Touadera and his regime in Bangui, the
capital city of CAR, taking over a portion of the responsibilities
formerly assumed by French troops, and by MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeping
mission (United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization
Mission in the Central African Republic).

In addition, Russia has been supplying masses of weapons to Touadera's
army. Normally, CAR is under a UN arms embargo, and it's illegal for
any UN member to send any weapons into CAR, but Russia was able to
obtain a waiver from the UN Security Council to do so.

Among the weapons delivered this year are 900 Makarov pistols, 5,200
Kalashnikov assault rifles, 140 sniper rifles, 840 Kalashnikov PK
7.62-millimeter machine guns, 270 rocket-propelled grenade launchers,
20 man-portable anti-air defense systems, hand grenades, mortars and
millions of rounds of ammunition. Russian weaponry and parts are
compatible with what Soviet-era arms remain in the CAR armories.

One estimate suggests there are now 1,400 armed Russians in the CAR,
most of them employees of private military contractor Wagner PMC,
operating under the name Sewa Security Services.

In return, Russia is being granted access to exploit CAR's oil,
precious ores, and rare earth minerals. Russia will develop
infrastructure for strategic military bases, and commercial relations
with telecoms and other industries. Jamestown and AFP and Turkey Telegraph (24-Apr) and Monde Afrique (9-May) (Trans)

Related Articles:

****
**** The rise of Russia's military contractor Wagner Private Military Company (Wagner PMC)
****

[Image: g180525c.jpg]

Sergei Borisovich Kim, Chief of Operations in Wagner Private Military Company (Inform Napalm)

In February, I wrote "9-Feb-18 World View -- US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Syrian regime forces"
in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria. In
that article, I wrote:

<QUOTE>"The war in Syria may have gotten even more chaotic on
Thursday when US-backed Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), backed by US
warplanes, clashed with pro-regime Syrian army forces and allies.
The pro-regime forces launched a massive, coordinated attack on
the SDF, and were driven back with the aid of US warplanes.

The US had been observing the buildup of the pro-regime forces for
several days, as they prepared for this assault on the SDF.
During that period, the US forces contacted the Russians over an
established "de-confliction" hotline that was set up to prevent
such clashes. However, the pro-regime forces attacked anyway, and
the SDF forces counter-attacked in self-defense."<END QUOTE>

As I described at the time, the Pentagon estimated that 100 regime
fighters were killed. The Syrian regime said that the US-backed
forces had committed a "barbaric aggression" representing a "war
crime."

Since then, it's come out that the "pro-regime Syrian army forces and
allies" were actually a Russian military contractor Wagner Private
Military Company (Wagner PMC). The clash with the American backed
SDF forces was a complete disaster for Wagner, as hundreds of Wagner
mercenaries were unable to return to their families in Russia.

However, this debacle was not the end of the contracting firm. This
is the same Wagner PMC that we described above as operating today in
Central African Republic under the name Sewa Security Services.

Wagner PMC is a private military company, but is sometimes called
"Vladimir Putin's personal army." It's thought to be closely
connected to Russian military and intelligence organizations, and it
performs "dirty work" about which Putin wished to maintain
deniability.

Wagner has a core of over 4,800 well-trained, well-paid combat troops.
In additional to military operations in Ukraine, Syria, Sudan, Central
African Republic and other countries, it has "business-related"
activities, such as protecting oil and gas fields in Syria and Iraqi
Kurdistan.

According to reports, Wagner PMC has risen to prominence because of
financial support from Russian billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Prigozhin has also been identified as the head of Russia's "fake news"
empire, including the famous St. Petersburg troll factory that turns
out hundreds of Russian trolls who constantly attack people like me
when we write about Russia. According to some reports, at the zenith
of the U.S. election campaign, the troll factory’s accounts across
different social media platforms would churn out as many as 50 million
posts a month. Inform Napalm (20-Feb) and Jamestown (18-Apr) and Moscow Times (24-Mar-2017) and Conflict Intelligence Team (Moscow)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Central African Republic, CAR,
Faustin-Archange Touadera, Sergei Lavrov,
MINUSCA, Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in CAR,
Sewa Security Services, Wagner Private Military Force, Wagner PMC,
Syria, Deir Ezzor, Deir al-Zour, Deir ez-Zor, Deir Azzour,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Vladimir Putin,
Yevgeny Prigozhin, Sergei Borisovich Kim

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

27-May-18 World View -- U.S. threatens 'firm measures' against al-Assad's military ac - John J. Xenakis - 05-26-2018

*** 27-May-18 World View -- U.S. threatens 'firm measures' against al-Assad's military action in Deraa, Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

U.S. threatens 'firm measures' against al-Assad's military action in Deraa, Syria
US State Department warns the Syrian regime of 'firm and appropriate measures'
Syria passes new 'Law #10' to block refugees from returning home after the war

****
**** U.S. threatens 'firm measures' against al-Assad's military action in Deraa, Syria
****

[Image: g180526b.jpg]

A bulldozer clears debris from the streets in Deraa, Syria July 25, 2017 (Reuters)

The U.S. State Department is warning the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad that the U.S. will take "firm and appropriate
measures," if al-Assad violates a ceasefire deal in the southern
province of Deraa.

The U.S. warning was triggered when Syrian aircraft dropped leaflets
on Deraa, threatening a military offensive. One of the leaflets
includes a picture showing lined up bodies, saying, "This is the
inevitable fate of anyone who insists on carrying arms."

By means of massive bombing campaigns by Syrian and Russian warplanes,
especially targeting women and children in hospitals, schools and
markets, including the use of barrel bombs containing chlorine and
sometimes Sarin gas, the al-Assad regime has almost completed
taking control of the Eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus. The dropping
of leaflets indicates that al-Assad plans next to turn his attention
to Deraa.

Deraa is a critical region because it's on the border with
Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, so action by Syria and its allies
Iran and Hezbollah could spiral into a escalating military clash with
Israel. Deraa is a mostly Sunni Arab province under the control of
almost a dozen anti-Assad rebel groups, varying in ideology from
moderate to jihadist. Some reports indicate that Israel has provided
support for rebels and civilians in Deraa, treating them in their
hospitals and providing weapons and other aid. The National (Abu Dhabi) and Sputnik (Moscow) and Al Jazeera (Doha)

****
**** US State Department warns the Syrian regime of 'firm and appropriate measures'
****

On Friday evening, State Department spokesman Heather Nauert issued a
statement warning of "firm and appropriate measures in response to
Assad regime violations" in Deraa:

<QUOTE>"The United States is concerned by reports of an
impending Assad regime operation in southwest Syria within the
boundaries of the de-escalation zone negotiated between the United
States, Jordan, and the Russian Federation last year and
reaffirmed between Presidents Trump and Putin in Da Nang, Vietnam
in November. The United States remains committed to maintaining
the stability of the southwest de-escalation zone and to the
ceasefire underpinning it. We also caution the Syrian regime
against any actions that risk broadening the conflict or
jeopardize the ceasefire. As a guarantor of this de-escalation
area with Russia and Jordan, the United States will take firm and
appropriate measures in response to Assad regime violations.

The Presidents of the United States and Russia agreed in Da Nang
to de-escalate the conflict. This agreement must be enforced and
respected. Russia has declared to the world and to the UNSC that
it will “guarantee” ceasefires in its self-declared de-escalation
zones. Unfortunately, the Assad regime, with the support of Russia
and Iran, has repeatedly violated these de-escalation zones, most
recently in its brutal assault on East Ghouta. The Assad regime
and its allies continue to prolong the conflict by ignoring their
own de-escalation agreements and stonewalling the Geneva process.

Russia is duly responsible as a permanent member of the UN
Security Council to use its diplomatic and military advantage over
the Assad regime to stop attacks and compel the Assad regime to
cease further military offensives. Russia has blocked UN Security
Council actions that would have held Assad accountable for the use
of chemical weapons and possibly saved innocent lives in Syria 11
times so far in this conflict. Six of those vetoes related to the
use of chemical weapons, and others were providing humanitarian
access and aid, and ceasing attacks against civilians. Russia
should live up to its self-professed commitments in accordance
with UNSCR 2254 and the southwest ceasefire, embodied in the Da
Nang Statement issued by Presidents Trump and Putin."<END QUOTE>

This would not be the first time that Syrian-backed attacks on a
"US-enforced de-escalation zone" in Syria. On February 7,
Syrian-backed forces tried to cross the Euphrates River to attack
US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Deir az-Zour in eastern
Syria. The result was a disaster for the Syrian forces, as several
hundred were killed, and the rest were forced to flee in retreat.

I referred to this incident in yesterday's World View article,
since it's emerged that the
Syrian-backed forces were actually mercenaries working for the Russian
military contractor Wagner Private Military Company (Wagner PMC).
Wagner is sometimes called "Vladimir Putin's personal army," referring
to the president of Russia, and is often asked to perform Putin's
"dirty work," allowing him deniability.

Bashar al-Assad has stated that his objective is to regain control of
all of Syria. But anti-Assad rebels still control large contiguous
areas of territory in the northwest and southwest. Kurdish and allied
Arab militia in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), back by the US
hold the quarter of Syria east of the Euphrates. RTE (Dublin) and US State Dept. and Debka (Israel) and The National (Abu Dhabi)

Related Articles

****
**** Syria passes new 'Law #10' to block refugees from returning home after the war
****

On April 2, the Syrian government of the Bashar al-Assad regime passed
"Law #10," a complex new property law that requires property holders
in Syria to produce documentation to formally prove ownership of their
private property within a period of 30 days, or face confiscation.

There are six million internally displaced refugees in Syria, and five
million that have fled to other countries, with 3.5 million in Turkey,
almost one million in Lebanon, another million in Iraq and Jordan, and
over a million in Europe.

The intention has always been that these refugees would return home
when the war ended, al-Assad's clear intention is to make that
impossible, since their homes will be confiscated unless they can
return quickly with the proper documentation, which is obviously
impossible for the vast majority.

Even worse, any property owner wishing to register his lands must
first obtain approval from state security officials, which means that
anyone identified as having had anti-Assad sympathies can be arrested.

Every time I think that this psychopathic monster Bashar al-Assad
can't get any worse, he fools me by coming up with something new and
horrific beyond belief. Al-Assad has been conducting genocide and
ethnic cleansing against Arab Sunnis in Syria, and now he's taking
steps to make sure that anyone who fled his violence can't even return
home. Al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster and war criminal so far
this century, comparable to Stalin, Hitler, Mao and Pol Pot in the
last century.

Lebanon is a country of four million people, and has had its resources
enormously strained by a million refugees that officials had hoped
would one day go home. Lebanon's prime minister Saad Hariri lambasted
the legislation, saying, "This total invention of Decree 10 has no
purpose but to prevent these displaced from going back to their
country." Daily Star (Lebanon) and AFP and Syria Direct (17-Apr) and Needa (Syria, 5-Apr) and
SANA (Damascus, 2-Apr)
(Trans)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Deraa, Ghouta,
Israel, Golan Heights, Iran, Hezbollah,
Heather Nauert, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Deir az-Zour,
Wagner Private Military Company, Wagner PMC,
Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Saad Hariri

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 05-27-2018

I can't wait to hear leaders of Arab countries start comparing Bashir Assad to the "Zionists" for creating a refugee crisis.

28-May-18 World View -- Dozens killed in English-speaking Cameroon region by French-s - John J. Xenakis - 05-27-2018

*** 28-May-18 World View -- Dozens killed in English-speaking Cameroon region by French-speaking government police

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Dozens killed in English-speaking Cameroon region by French-speaking government police
US Ambassador Peter Barlerin accuses Cameroon government of 'targeted killings'

****
**** Dozens killed in English-speaking Cameroon region by French-speaking government police
****

[Image: g180527b.jpg]

Youth wearing a T-shirt protesting the 'Francophonization' of Anglophones (Deutsche Welle)

Twenty-two people were killed on Friday in the Anglophone
(English-speaking) region of Cameroon by army and security forces from
the Francophone (French-speaking) government of 85-year-old president
Paul Biya, who has been in power for more than 35 years.

This is the latest violence in a growing civil war in the Southern
Cameroons, the Anglophone region of Cameroon.

The violence started in November 2016, when peaceful protests began
with claims by Anglophone lawyers that the legal and court systems are
biased toward Francophones, with many laws passed without even being
translated into English. Anglophone teachers joined in, protesting
that all courses in the schools had to be taught in French, and that
any use of English was forbidden. The Francophone police responded by
committing atrocities.

The atrocities by Francophone security forces grew during 2017, and
took a particularly dangerous turn on September 22. What always
happens in these situations, as I've described in Syria, Cambodia,
Burundi, and a number of other countries, is that government officials
feel threated by peaceful protests by the opposition, and respond to
the peaceful protests with violence and atrocities. This kind of
extreme overreaction leaves everyone stunned and shocked at first, but
it doesn't have the intended effect of ending the peaceful protests.
Instead, more people from the opposition join the peaceful protests,
and this leads to more violence and atrocities by the government.
Finally, the activists within the peaceful protesters begin to commit
their own acts of violence. Once that happens, the government is free
to call all the peaceful protesters "terrorists," and then they can
use unbridled violence against all of them, including rape, jailings,
and torture.

In Cameroon, the violence and atrocities by Biya's government
continued throughout 2017, in various forms. Finally, activists
formed a secessionist group called the Liberation Movement of Southern
Cameroons. On October 1 of last year, and declared independence for
the Southern Cameroons, calling it Ambazonia.

The name Ambazonia comes from the Ambas Bay. The bay which is located
in southwestern Cameroon is considered as the boundary between
Southern Cameroons and the Republic of Cameroon. In 1858, British
missionary Alfred Saker founded a settlement for freed slaves at the
bay which was later renamed Victoria. Britain established the Ambas
Bay Protectorate in 1884 with Victoria as its capital.

Biya's Francophone government responded with massive violence,
arresting hundreds of people, and using helicopter gunships to fire on
innocent civilians and kill them. Hundreds of people have been
killed, and hundreds more are missing. This triggered a mass flight
of refugees across the border into neighboring Nigeria.

In an apparent attempt at ethnic cleansing, the Francophone army has
burned down dozens of Anglophone villages, and burned down houses with
people inside. In response, the separatists have been burning down
state buildings and institutions, including schools.

So now there's violence on both sides. The atrocities and violence by
the Francophone government targeting the peaceful Anglophone
protesters radicalized some Anglophone activists into violence and
declaring an independent state of Ambazonia. Now the Anglophone
government can claim that tens of thousands of "terrorists" have been
killed, jailed, tortured, disappeared, or forced to flee into Nigeria.
VOA (27-May) and The Citizen (Tanzania) and VOA (23-May)

****
**** US Ambassador Peter Barlerin accuses Cameroon government of 'targeted killings'
****

Peter Henry Barlerin, the US ambassador to Cameroon, said last week:

<QUOTE>"April has proven the bloodiest so things are not
getting better.

On the side of the government, there have been targeted killings,
detentions without access to legal support, family, or the Red
Cross, and burning and looting of villages. On the side of the
separatists, there have been murders of gendarmes, kidnapping of
government officials, and burning of schools. People on both
sides of the conflict have engaged in speech that dehumanizes the
opposite side."<END QUOTE>

Barlerin also "suggested to President Biya that he should reflect on
his legacy and how he wants to be remembered in the history books."

However Issa Tchiroma Bakary, spokesman for Cameroon's Francophone
government, said:

<QUOTE>"We do not accept the infantilization of the
Cameroonian nation. It is with full knowledge of the facts that
they (Cameroonians) put their ballot in the ballot box.

[The Cameroonian people] are sovereign, and not likely to accept
any diktat from whatever power."<END QUOTE>

The minister described Biya as "a man of honor."

There have been some reports that ambassador Barlerin has returned to
Washington, but those reports are unconfirmed. Deutsche Welle (18-May) and Journal du Cameroun
and Africa News (20-May) and Journal du Cameroun (24-May)

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cameroon, Southern Cameroons,
Anglophones, Francophones, Paul Biya,
Ambazonia, Liberation Movement of Southern Cameroons,
Ambas Bay, Alfred Saker,
Peter Henry Barlerin, Issa Tchiroma Bakary

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

29-May-18 World View -- Italy's 'populist' government collapses, threatening eurozone - John J. Xenakis - 05-28-2018

*** 29-May-18 World View -- Italy's 'populist' government collapses, threatening eurozone exit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Italy's 'populist' government collapses, threatening eurozone exit
Italy's president Mattarella selects a 'technocrat' as prime minister

****
**** Italy's 'populist' government collapses, threatening eurozone exit
****

[Image: g180528b.jpg]

Italy's parliament building

Last week, we reported on the formation of a 'populist' coalition
between the left-wing Five Star
Movement (M5S), led by Luigi Di Maio, and the right-wing La Liga (The
(Northern) League), led by Matteo Salvini.

Although the two parties differ on many issues, and distrust each
other greatly, they decided to form a coalition based on their shared
anti-euro, anti-EU and anti-immigrant policies, and particularly on
the fact that they have no fiscal discipline whatsoever.

Di Maio and Salvini chose Giuseppe Conte, an obscure law professor
with no political experience, to serve as prime minister, to be
confirmed by the parliament.

But they also chose Paolo Savona to be finance minister, someone who
at one time in the past raised objections to Italy joining the
eurozone. Following constitutional procedure, Conte submitted
Savona's name to Italy's president, Sergio Mattarella. Mattarella,
who is staunchly pro-Europe, vetoed the choice of Savona, based on his
previous statements about the eurozone, even though he says that he no
longer believes them. Conte resigned, and the entire proposed
government collapsed.

This infuriated Di Maio and Salvini, who claimed that Mattarella was
catering to the demands of Brussels and Berlin, rather than to the
will of the people of Italy. Di Maio called for the impeachment of
Mattarella, something unlikely to be successful under Italy's
constitutional system.

Salvini demanded new elections, believing that his Northern League
would gain addition seats in parliament. "In a democracy, if we are
still in democracy, there's only one thing to do, let the Italians
have their say," he said. Deutsche Welle and CNBC and Handelsblatt (Berlin)

****
**** Italy's president Mattarella selects a 'technocrat' as prime minister
****

President Mattarella said he vetoed Savona's appointment as that would
have "alarmed markets and investors, Italians and foreigners." He
pointed out that the threat of leaving the eurozone was causing
investors to increase the bond spread. (This means that investors are
losing faith in Italy's ability to repay its debt, and so investors
are forcing Italy to pay higher interest rates when it borrows money.)

Indeed, Italy's economy is at crisis levels. Today, Italian debt
stands at around €2.17 trillion, or 133% of gross domestic
product (GDP). That's worse than Greece's situation when it was being
bailed out in 2010. At that time, Greece's debt as "only" 127% of
GDP.

The Di Maio-Salvini plan was to simply ignore Italy's crushing debt,
and spend a lot more money, give away a lot of free stuff such as a
guaranteed income, and reduce taxes.

Even more ominous was a hare-brained plan to issue a new kind of
government bond, called a mini-Bot. (Bots are Buoni Ordinari del
Tesoro, a common Italian Treasury bill or short-term credit note.)
The mini-Bots would be backed by expected tax receipts in the future,
meaning that the government would be spending future income before
they even had it. Furthermore, the mini-Bots could be used to pay for
taxes or other payments to the government, giving the feeling that
mini-Bots were a new Italian currency. There would be nothing to
prevent stores from accepting mini-Bots as payment, or to prevent
brokers from establishing a black market exchange rate between the
mini-Bot and the euro.

The mini-Bot proposal means that the Di Maio-Salvini government could,
at some time in the future, repudiate its euro-based debt, leave the
eurozone, and use the mini-Bots as currency.

This was all apparently too much for president Mattarella, and he
vetoed the selection of Paolo Savona as finance minister, causing the
entire government to collapse.

In order to stabilize the markets, Mattarella decided to make Carlo
Cottarelli the new prime minister. Cottarelli will be a "technocrat,"
meaning that he won't be implementing any political policies, but will
only do the bare minimum to keep the government running, until there
can be new elections at the beginning of next year.

Carlo Cottarelli is a former official from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF), and he is known as "Mr. Scissors" because of his
cost-cutting policies. So investors' concerns should be soothed,
provided Cottarelli is able to govern. But it's not clear that he can
govern. He will receive no support from Di Maio or Salvini, and
little or no support in parliament from MPs for the Five-Star Movement
or The League. That means that Cottarelli will be unable to get the
parliament to pass his proposed budget, and that will cause
Cottarelli's government to collapse just as quickly as Conte's
government collapsed.

In that case, there will be an emergency election in August or
September. If Matteo Salvini is right, then the furious voters will
elect even more MPs from the two populist parties, to get revenge for
what they see as foreign interference from Brussels or Berlin. The
next election will be seen as a referendum on whether Italy should
stay in the eurozone, so president Mattarella's move to force the Di
Maio-Salvini government to collapse may be what causes Italy to leave
the eurozone after all. Sputnik News and Guardian (London) and The Street

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Five-Star Movement, M5S, Luigi Di Maio,
La Liga, The (Northern) League, Matteo Salvini.
Giuseppe Conte, Paolo Savona, Sergio Mattarella,
mini-Bot, Buoni Ordinari del Tesoro,
Carlo Cottarelli, Mr. Scissors, International Monetary Fund, IMF

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

30-May-18 World View -- Philippine President Duterte reverses position, says he would - John J. Xenakis - 05-29-2018

*** 30-May-18 World View -- Philippine President Duterte reverses position, says he would go to war with China over South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Philippine President Duterte reverses position, says he would go to war with China over South China Sea
China raises 'combat readiness' as US-China relations become increasingly hostile

****
**** Philippine President Duterte reverses position, says he would go to war with China over South China Sea
****

[Image: g180529b.jpg]

Philippine President Duterte warns China over South China Sea development (AP)

Ever since taking office, Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte has
sided with China, refusing to take a position opposing China's illegal
activities in the South China Sea. This is particularly ironic for
the president of the Philippines, since it was the Philippines that
brought the lawsuit in the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration in the Hague, which ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law.

As recently as two weeks ago, Duterte was defending his refusal to
challenge China's activities in the South China Sea. Duterte said
that the court ruling came before he took office, but he had no choice
but to support China anyway:

<QUOTE>"It did not come during my term. But then again, if I
were the President at that time, what could I have done? I can
send my Marines there. I can send every policeman there. But what
will happen? They will all be massacred."<END QUOTE>

Duterte's decision was never particularly popular with the Philippines
people. Polls show that China's favorable rating is around 54%, while
America's approval rating is around 92%. Basically, the people of
China and the people of the Philippines hate each other for historical
reasons.

But now apparently Duterte has been stung by recent reports that China
is basing bombers and cruise missiles on the illegal artificial
islands. Furthermore, the Philippines is within range of these
bombers and missiles. This has apparently infuriated a lot of people
in the Philippines.

So Duterte's Foreign Affairs Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano on Tuesday
announced that Duterte is setting some "red lines" which, if crossed
by China, would lead to war:

<QUOTE>"What is our red line? Our red line is that they
cannot build on Scarborough [Shoal].

Another red line is: Nobody can get natural resources there on
their own.

That's what the president said. If anyone gets the natural
resources in the West Philippine Sea-South China Sea, he will go
to war. He said: 'Bahala na.' He will go to war. So those were our
red lines."<END QUOTE>

According to the internet, "Bahala Na!" is a Tagalog expression that
perfectly encapsulates the typical Filipino attitude towards life.
The oft-used phrase Bahala Na can be translated into English as: Come
what may. What happens will happen. Scholars tend to label it as a
form of fatalism. Inquirer (Philippines, 21-May) and Philippines Star
and Tagalog Language

Related Articles

****
**** China raises 'combat readiness' as US-China relations become increasingly hostile
****

Two U.S. Navy warships conducted a freedom of navigation operation
(FONOP) on Sunday in the South China Sea, near islands occupied by
China in the Paracel Islands. This is the location where, as we
reported several days ago, China is building barracks capable of
housing thousands of soldiers.

According to China's foreign ministry:

<QUOTE>"The US Warships' unauthorized entry into China's
territorial waters off the [Paracel] Islands again has violated
the Chinese law and relevant international law, severely
undermined China's sovereignty and put in jeopardy the peace,
security and sound order in relevant waters. China expresses
strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the relevant act of
the US, and strongly urges it to immediately stop such provocation
that infringes upon China's sovereignty and threatens China's
security. China will continue to take every necessary measure to
safeguard its sovereignty and security."<END QUOTE>

It's laughable for China to reference "international law," when China
itself does not recognize international law. As for Chinese law, who
care? If China won't recognize international law, then why should we
recognize Chinese law?

The "relevant international law" is the Tribunal ruling that all of
China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal, which means
that Chinese officials are international criminals.

Relations between the US and China in the South China Sea are becoming
increasingly hostile. China is building hundreds of buildings on its
illegal islands, as we recently reported,
allowing thousands of troops to be stationed there.

Shortly before that, China announced that it has begun landing bombers
on the artificial islands it created in the South China sea, in
preparation for the Battle of the South China Sea. And that
announcement came just two weeks after China deployed offensive cruise
and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea.

The US responded by withdrawing an invitation for China to take part
in the 2018 Rim of the Pacific Drill, because China's activities in
the South China Sea "raise tensions and destabilize the region." This
was followed by Sunday's FONOP, which was different from previous
FONOPs because it used two warships instead of just one.

China's foreign ministry threat, was followed by reports that the
U.S. Navy considers that the actions of Chinese warships on Sunday was
"safe but unprofessional," because the Chinese ships maneuvered
erratically.

In the last two days, there have been additional reports about China's
militarization of its illegal islands.

China announced that it has set up an "intelligent microgrid" that
will supply electricity to weapons systems on all of China's
artificial islands. According to Chinese media:

<QUOTE>"The microgrid also aids military personnel and
weaponry, analysts said.

Stable electricity underwrites military stations and daily
military operations in the South China Sea. Surface-to-air and
anti-ship missiles, for example, need not depend solely on
electric vehicles, said Song Zhongping, a military expert and TV
commentator.

The service life of weaponry can be extended by reducing their
reliance on self-contained chargers, Song told the Global Times on
Monday.

Stable electricity was also critical at armories and arms depots
for handling the high temperatures, humidity and salinity of the
islands, Song noted."<END QUOTE>

According another report in Chinese media, China is aggressively
developing its next generation of nuclear weapons:

<QUOTE>"China is aggressively developing its next generation
of nuclear weapons, conducting an average of five tests a month to
simulate nuclear blasts, according to a major Chinese weapons
research institute.

Its number of simulated tests has in recent years outpaced that of
the United States, which conducts them less than once a month on
average. ...

Over the past three years, Chinese nuclear scientists have
performed more such tests than their American counterparts have in
15 years.

In tunnels deep under mountains in Mianyang, southwestern Sichuan
province, where China’s main nuclear design facilities are based,
loud blasts from these experiments can be heard more than once a
week.

In comparison, between 2003 and 2017, the US fired a total of 150
simulated shots at its Joint Actinide Shock Physics Experimental
Research (Jasper) facility at the Nevada National Security
Site."<END QUOTE>

These new military developments seem to be coming more and more
quickly, as if China is rushing to meet a target date to launch a war.
I've seen one estimate that the target date is 2020, but it could just
as easily be 2019 or 2021. Foreign Ministry of China and AP and Global Times (Beijing) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Sputnik News (Moscow)

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, China, South China Sea,
Rodrigo R. Duterte, Alan Peter Cayetano, Scarborough Shoal,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, Bahala Na,
Paracel Islands, Xi Jinping

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

31-May-18 World View -- Malaysia shocked when 92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad becomes pr - John J. Xenakis - 05-30-2018

*** 31-May-18 World View -- Malaysia shocked when 92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad becomes prime minister

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Malaysia shocked when 92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad becomes prime minister
Mahathir promises to reduce Malaysia's debt and China's influence

****
**** Malaysia shocked when 92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad becomes prime minister
****

[Image: g180530b.jpg]

92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad wins election to become prime minister (EPA)

Malaysia and the world were shocked on May 8 when the party
92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad won 113 out of a total of 222 seats in
the parliament, making Mahathir the new prime minister.

Mahathir defeated the incumbent prime minister Najib Razak, and it's
believed that his surprising victory had to do with money. Voters
were sickened by a scandal having to do with the 1Malaysia Development
Berhad (1MDB), where the government cannot account for how billions of
dollars were spent, though Najib denies any wrongdoing. However, six
countries, including the United States, are investigating transactions
related to the project.

Voters were also increasingly anxious about the country's increasing
indebtedness, especially to China. Malaysia's relationship with China
dominated the election campaign, as it has in many election campaigns
in the past. Malaysians like the money that China invests in
infrastructure projects, but are anxious about indebtedness to China
and to the growing communities of Chinese workers.

Mahathir was previously prime minister from 1981 to 2003. He was a
typical authoritarian leader, jailing and torturing the opposition,
shutting down anti-government media, scorning human rights, and
sometimes languishing in open anti-Semitism.

According to one story, he was accused of being "an angry man and will
burn the whole country with his anger," and he responded:

<QUOTE>"Yes, I am a very angry man, you can see how angry I
am. I will burn you, I am always burning things."<END QUOTE>

As we've seen in many other countries, being a bloody, brutal leader
doesn't harm his popularity, and may improve it. South China Morning Post (10-May) and Reuters (27-April) and Bloomberg (7-May) and Reuters (23-May)

****
**** Mahathir promises to reduce Malaysia's debt and China's influence
****

[Image: g180530c.jpg]

Chinese investment projects in Malaysia (SCMP)

In the past few years, Prime Minister Najib Razak vastly expanded the
extent of Malaysia's economic engagement with China, particular as a
result of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the
country is now $251 billion in debt, and the new prime minister,
Mahathir Mohamad, has committed to reducing the debt.

Mahathir is planning harsh cutbacks. At a press briefing just after
he was elected, he announced that 17,000 contractual employees would
be dismissed, and ministers' salaries would be reduced by 10%.

A particularly sensitive cutback will be to the search for Malaysia
Airlines Flight MH370, which disappeared on its way from Kuala Lumpur
to Beijing on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board, in one of the
world’s biggest aviation mysteries. Houston-based Ocean Infinity has
been hired to search for the plane in the Indian Ocean, under the
condition that they will be paid $70 million, but only if they
succeed. Mahathir is reviewing that contract, along with many others,
for possible cancellation.

Mahathir's first major canceled infrastructure project wasn't a
Chinese investment at all. It's a planned high-speed rail link
connecting Malaysia's capital city, Kuala Lumpur, with Singapore. The
price tag is $17 billion. Mahathir told reporters that "It's not
beneficial," but in Singapore there are concerns that the hostile
relationship between Malaysia and Singapore in the previous Mahathir
administration is now returning.

The biggest Chinese infrastructure project under scrutiny is the East
Coast Rail Link (ECRL). This is an important part of China's Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI). The rail link will connect several eastern
Malaysian ports on the South China Sea to Kuala Lumpur, and then to
the Strait of Malacca on the west coast.

Objections to previous Chinese infrastructure investments in Malaysia
have focused on the presence of thousands of Chinese workers, heavy
dependence on Chinese materials, and limited opportunities for local
companies. In order to respond to those objections, and to avoid a
repeat of past problems, former prime minister Najib said the link
would create 80,000 jobs and the Chinese project operator would be
obliged to give at least 70 percent of these to local workers.

The Chinese construction firm is offering to provide a loan of 85% of
the $14 billion project value, with a grace period of seven years.
However, many Malaysians are familiar with the "debt trap" disaster
that occurred in Sri Lanka, and many are calling the ECRL project "the
next Sri Lanka." The reference is to the Port of Hambantota, a
Chinese infrastructure project in Sri Lanka, funded with a loan from
China, with almost all the labor performed by Chinese workers. Sri
Lanka was unable to repay the loan, and the government was forced to
give the Port to China. So now Sri Lanka has a port owned by China,
and a large Chinese enclave, with no benefit to itself and to its own
people.

Mahathir would like to cancel the ECRL contract, but is discovering
that it's not possible. According to the contract signed with China
by the Najib government, Malaysia will have to pay billions of dollars
of the loan plus interest, within three months of default. Mahathir
hopes at least that costs can be reduced by eliminating some parts of
the ECRL infrastructure. Malaysia Insight and
CNN and CNBC and Reuters and Bloomberg and The Diplomat

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Malaysia, Mahathir Mohamad, Najib Razak,
1Malaysia Development Berhad, 1MDB,
China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, Ocean Infinity,
Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, East Coast Rail Link, ECRL
Sri Lanka, Port of Hambantota

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 05-31-2018

One country to watch is Japan. Awhile back I came across a web site that indicated that the Japanese may contest Southeast Asia. It is known that the Japanese have the technical means to quickly assemble a nuclear deterrent. They are also working on land based anti-ship missiles, which could be deployed to the island countries of east Asia.

The Japanese have started a military build up that includes aircraft carriers.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 05-31-2018

(05-31-2018, 10:41 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: One country to watch is Japan. Awhile back I came across a web site that indicated that the Japanese may contest Southeast Asia. It is known that the Japanese have the technical means to quickly assemble a nuclear deterrent. They are also working on land based anti-ship missiles, which could be deployed to the island countries of east Asia.

The Japanese have started a military build up that includes aircraft carriers.

I'm only surprised that they waited as long as they did … or did they? They've had a nuclear industry for decades, so enrichment is the only limitation on nuclear weapons. That can be hidden by a tech giant like Japan, and may have been for some time. Testing isn't needed any longer either, since computer models are even more accurate than the tests. The conventional stuff can be called "defensive", so it remains inside the peace constitution if they say it does.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 05-31-2018

At this point it is hard to say what exactly will happen in east Asia. Different scenarios have been described by different people. Given the importance of east Asia, I would have to say that we are close to a major upheaval in international affairs.

BTW, Peter Zeihan. (zeihan.com) mentioned in his online newsletter that there may be a realignment in Europe-Germany partnering with Russia.

Of course, John Xenakis mentioned the new partnership between India and Iran.

RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 05-31-2018

Back in the 1980s, Japan threatened to develop or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons in the event that North Korea got them. There were no complaints from the US< Britain, China, India, Pakistan, or the (then still-extant Soviet Union).

1-Jun-18 World View -- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - John J. Xenakis - 05-31-2018

*** 1-Jun-18 World View -- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now
Egypt mediates a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

****
**** Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now
****

[Image: g180531b.jpg]

Hamas rally in Gaza

As another round of Gaza border violence after Friday prayers is
possible again today, Israeli officials are hoping that a ceasefire
mediated by Egypt will hold.

For weeks, starting on March 30, there would be clash between
Palestinian protesters and the Israeli army on the border between Gaza
and Israel. The clashes peaked on May 14, when 62 Gazans were killed,
and hundreds of injured. According to Hamas, 50 of the 62 killed were
members of Hamas, while the other 12 were civilians.

The latest burst of violence began on Tuesday evening of this week
when, according to Israel's military, 180 Iranian-made rockets and
mortar shells were fired from Gaza into Israel, reaching over six
miles into Israeli territory. The rocket attack continued through
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Seven Israelis were reported
wounded by shrapnel in the rocket and mortar attack.

Hamas is the governing authority in Gaza, but it's believed that the
rockets and mortars were launched not by Hamas but by another Gaza
terror group, Islamic Jihad. It's not clear whether Hamas knew about
the attacks in advance.

Israeli warplanes retaliated for the attacks by striking by striking
65 Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets throughout Gaza, according to the
Israeli military. These targets included a tunnel that traversed
Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and penetrated half a mile into Israel. No
casualties were reported in Gaza. Israeli forces targeted encampments
that appeared to have been vacated in anticipation of attack.
AFP and Israel National News (16-May) and Haaretz

****
**** Egypt mediates a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas
****

The events on Tuesday and Wednesday were a major escalation of
violence, the worst since the 67-day summer war between Israel and
Gaza in 2014. United Nations officials expressed concern that the
Gaza war would be restarted in full force.

The fighting stopped on both sides on Wednesday morning, thanks to a
ceasefire agreement mediated by Egypt. The ceasefire agreement also
included a new attempt to reconcile the differences between the two
political factions, Hamas in Gaza, and the Palestinian Authority (PA)
in the West Bank, led by Mahmoud Abbas. Israeli officials are hoping
that the ceasefire will hold, but new demonstrations are planned for
next week on Tuesday, June 5.

After the 2014 Gaza War, Egypt brokered a reconciliation agreement
between Hamas and the PA, to form a "unity government". The new
government would contain ministers and MPs from both Hamas and Fatah,
and would govern both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

The concept of a Palestinian unity government has never been more than
a delusional fantasy. After several decades of living separately in
the Gaza and the West Bank, they are no longer a single Palestinian
people. The two groups are as different as the French and the
English.

Hamas has repeatedly refused to relinquish any of its control of Gaza
to the Palestinian Authority. Mahmoud Abbas has tried squeezing Hamas
economically in several ways, such as by cutting payments to Israel
for the electricity that Israel supplies to Gaza. This led to sharp
reductions in power in Gaza, less than four hours on many days.

Hamas is facing its worst crisis in years, with a severe cash
shortage, living conditions being compared to an "open air prison,"
and unemployment rate of 40%. Hamas has lost several former allies --
the Muslim Brotherhood, Syria and Iran -- because of the coup in
Egypt, and because Mideast wars in Syria and Yemen have dried up
resources by former donors.

Hamas became so desperate that last year it agreed to some of the
terms of the proposed unity government, including giving the PA some
governing authority in Gaza. However, these attempts at
reconciliation fizzled as quickly as they started.

However, the core differences are insurmountable without war. Hamas
and PA will never reconcile, just as Hamas and Israel will never
reconcile. The two-state solution is a fantasy.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Jews
and the Arabs will have a major new war, re-fighting the bloody the
war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will
be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews
versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran. Egypt Today and RTE (Ireland) and Washington Post

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad,
Egypt, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, West Bank

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E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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2-Jun-18 World View -- Israel makes deal with Russia as Syria's al-Assad makes anti-U - John J. Xenakis - 06-01-2018

*** 2-Jun-18 World View -- Israel makes deal with Russia as Syria's al-Assad makes anti-US rant

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Syria's al-Assad makes delusional threats to US military
Israel and Russia reach agreement to keep Iran out of Syria's south

****
**** Syria's al-Assad makes delusional threats to US military
****

[Image: g180601b.jpg]

Israeli Merkava Mark IV tanks take positions near the Syrian border in the Golan Heights on May 10, 2018. (AFP)

Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on Thursday threatened to expel
American forces from Syria:

<QUOTE>"This is the first option. If not, we're going to
resort to liberating those areas by force. We don't have any other
options, with the Americans or without the Americans.

This is our land, it's our right, and it's our duty to liberate
it. The Americans should leave, somehow they're going to leave.
They came to Iraq with no legal basis, and look what happened to
them. They have to learn the lesson. Iraq is no exception, and
Syria is no exception. People will not accept foreigners in this
region anymore."<END QUOTE>

American forces in Syria are supporting the mostly Kurdish Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) fighting in Syria's eastern province Deir
az-Zour against the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh).

There are actually several reasons why American forces have
a legal basis to be in Syria.

First, the US has the right to fight ISIS, which is a terrorist army
within Syria's borders. ISIS has been using Syria as a launching pad
for terrorist acts against targets in Europe, America, Afghanistan,
Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, among others. ISIS has to be
controlled, and al-Assad has an obligation to control it, but has been
unwilling or unable to do so.

US-backed SDF forces have already defeated ISIS in their stronghold
Raqqa, but ISIS is still a formidable fighting force in Deir az-Zour.
Even today, many people believe that ISIS would have a resurgence in
Syria if American forces simply withdrew, and al-Assad wants.

A second major reason that justified American and other foreign forces
in Syria is that al-Assad has driven millions of refugees into
neighboring countries, destabilizing the entire region. Because of
al-Assad's genocidal attacks on innocent civilians, there five million
that have fled to other countries, with 3.5 million in Turkey, almost
one million in Lebanon, another million in Iraq and Jordan, and over a
million in Europe.

Syria has an obligation to control its own population and, when it
can't, affected nations have a right to respond.

A third reason, related to the last one, as we reported a few days ago,
is that Syria has now enacted
"Decree #10" which makes it impossible for refugees to return to their
homes, even after the war ends, thus making their expulsion from
Syria permanent.

This is the same kind of genocide and ethnic cleansing that's being
performed by the government of Burma (Myanmar) against the Rohingya
Muslims. Starting in 2013, Burma's Buddhist army has conducted
genocide and ethnic cleansing, massacring, torturing, raping and
mutilating thousands of Rohingyas. Burma's army have driven over
600,000 Rohingyas into neighboring Bangladesh, not only killing,
raping and mutilating them, burning down their homes and villages.
Furthermore, Burma is continuing the slaughter in order to
prevent the community of Rohingyas from returning to their homes
in Burma, thus completing the ethnic cleansing.

Al-Assad is doing exactly the same thing with "Decree #10," making it
impossible for most Sunni Muslims to return to their homes. This
means that the refugees will not be permitted to return home from
Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Greece and other European countries.
Al-Assad has an obligation to provide homes for his own people, and
there's no reason why all these other countries should be forced to
tolerate his ethnic cleansing.

There's a third reason why US forces are justified in Syria: They've
been invited into Syria after all. Under the ceasefire "Astana
agreement" worked out last year by Turkey, Iran and Russia, and
approved by Syria, the US is responsible for maintaining the ceasefire in some of the de-confliction zones
defined by the Astana agreement. So the US
military has, in fact, been invited into Syria, albeit for a limited
reason.

In addition to being the worst genocidal monster so far this century,
al-Assad has been repeatedly delusional about the war in Syria that he
created. Possibly the most spectacular example occurred in 2016, when
al-Assad was using missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine gas, and other
weapons on innocent women and children in markets, schools and
hospitals, he bragged that the 'liberation' of Aleppo would be a 'historic event'
that will end
the war in Syria and be remembered long into the future.

Al-Assad has promised to regain control of all of Syria, but after the
"easy" battles in Aleppo and Ghouta, his final victory is nowhere in
sight, and he may not even succeed in the battles of Daraa in the
south and Idlib in the north. The Hill and Washington Times and Russia Today and Independent (London)

Related Articles

****
**** Israel and Russia reach agreement to keep Iran out of Syria's south
****

According to reports from Saudi and Israeli media, Russia's Defense
Minister Sergei Shoigu met in Moscow with his Israeli counterpart
Avigdor Lieberman, while President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Syria on the phone.

The reports indicate that they reached agreement that Russia would
prevent Iranian and Hezbollah forces from occupying a 40 km buffer
zone in southern Syria along Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

Furthermore, Russia gave Israel the "green light" to attack Iranian
targets a green light to launch military operations against any
threatening target, except positions of the forces of the Syrian
regime itself.

Israel has been concerned that Iran and Hezbollah could build
up troops and weapons in Syria along the border with the Golan
Heights, and launch attacks on Israel from there. Israeli
officials have repeatedly expressed concern to the Russians
that an Iranian buildup on the border could lead to a war between
Israel and Iran, something that Russia does not want. This
security issue is apparently the main argument that Israel used
to convince Russia to keep the Iranians out of the buffer zone.

However, the agreement is far less than Israel actually wants,
which is the forced withdrawal of all Iranian troops and weapons
from Syria. In the last few years, Israel has conducted repeated
airstrikes on Iranian targets, apparently with the blessing
of the Russians, who control the airspace over Syria.

However, a report from Debka, says that there is no agreement between
Russia and Israel at all. Debka's reports are written from Israel's
point of view, based on military and intelligence sources that provide
valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that
they definitely do get some things wrong.

According to the latest Debka report:

<QUOTE>"Contrary to widespread reports, Syrian, Iranian and
Hizballah forces were moving into southern Syria on Friday, June 1
opposite the Jordanian and Israeli (Golan) borders. ...

DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources stress once against
that no agreement exists between Russia and Israel, or Russia and
Iran and Syria for Iranian and Hizballah forces to exit southern
Syria. It stands to reason that Tehran will never accept a deal to
remove its military personnel from the south while Israel is left
free to carry on striking Iranian military targets in other parts
of Syria. Reports of deals are being pumped out from Russian
sources alone."<END QUOTE>

Prior to the announcement of the Israeli-Russian agreement, Russia's
foreign minister Sergei Lavrov call on all non-Syrian forces to
withdraw from Syria's southern border, as soon as possible. This
would include Iranian and Hezbollah forces. Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia) and Jerusalem Post and Bloomberg and Debka (Israel) and Jerusalem Post

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Israel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Decree #10, Burma, Myanmar, Rohingyas, Bangladesh,
Astana, Kazakhstan, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Idlib, Deir az-Zour,
Iran, Hezbollah, Golan Heights, Sergei Lavrov

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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3-Jun-18 World View -- Europe faces challenges with new governments in Italy, Spain a - John J. Xenakis - 06-02-2018

*** 3-Jun-18 World View -- Europe faces challenges with new governments in Italy, Spain and Catalonia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Spain's new government faces an immediate Catalonia problem
Italy's markets stabilize as new 'populist' government takes office

****
**** Spain's new government faces an immediate Catalonia problem
****

[Image: g180602b.jpg]

Catalonia's new government after swearing-in ceremony in Barcelona. (AP)

There were actually two new Spanish governments sworn in this weekend.

One was Spain's national government in Madrid, where the new Socialist
prime minister Pedro Sánchez was sworn in, after a vote of confidence
defeated the conservative government led by Mariano Rajoy.

The other was the Catalonia government in Barcelona. Madrid imposed
direct rule on Catalonia after declaring illegal a referendum on
Catalan independence on October 1. Direct rule ended and Catalonia's
new government was also sworn in on Saturday.

Catalonia's new president Quim Torra called for talks with Sánchez, to
resolve the question of independence for Catalonia. Just minutes
after Sánchez was sworn in, Torra said:

<QUOTE>"Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, let's talk, let's
address this issue, let's take risks, you and us.

"We need to sit down at the same table and negotiate, government
to government. This situation we're going through cannot go on
for even one more day."<END QUOTE>

I'm pretty sure this "government to government" stuff will not go over
well in Madrid. If such a meeting occurs then it may not go well,
since Torra wants Catalonia to be independent, while Sánchez opposes
Catalan independence.

Rajoy lost the no-confidence vote that cost him his job because of
recent court judgments that revealed a vast kickback scheme with
Rajoy's Popular Party. Rajoy tried to skate by and insist that he
wasn't involved, but the level of corruption was so great that former
Rajoy supporters in the parliament switched sides and supported the
no-confidence vote. AP and BBC and AFP and Bloomberg

Related Articles

****
**** Italy's markets stabilize as new 'populist' government takes office
****

Spain's government crisis is largely internal, and is unlikely to
become a crisis in Brussels. That's not true of Italy's governmental
crisis, which promises to spread, and cause wider crises.

Italy's plummeting financial markets have mostly recovered and appear
to be stabilized as the "populist" government that had appeared to collapse
early in the week
came to power, though with a different cabinet of ministers.

The "populist" coalition is between the left-wing Five Star Movement
(M5S), led by Luigi Di Maio, and the right-wing La Lega (The
(Northern) League), led by Matteo Salvini. Although the two parties
differ on many issues, and distrust each other greatly, they decided
to form a coalition based on their shared anti-euro, anti-EU and
anti-immigrant policies, and particularly on the fact that they have
no fiscal discipline whatsoever.

Di Maio and Salvini had chosen as finance minister Paolo Savona, who
in the past had raised objections to Italy being in the eurozone and
euro currency. Fearing a financial disaster, Italy's president,
Sergio Mattarella, vetoed the selection of Savona, and the proposed
government collapsed. Di Maio and Salvini, claimed that Mattarella
was catering to the demands of Brussels and Berlin, rather than to the
will of the people of Italy.

For a couple of days, Italy's government was in total chaos, and it
looked like Mattarella had made a major political blunder. Despite
the vitriolic political atmosphere in Rome, the chaos caused heads to
cool, and Di Maio, Salvini and Mattarella reached a compromise, where
Savona would be given a different job.

So now the European Union and the European Central Bank have to face
the reality of dealing with Italy's new government. On the immigrant
issue, Salvini wants to deport half a million illegal immigrants
living in Italy, and he's being criticized as xenophobic, as are
far-right parties in other countries, such as Germany's AfD and the
National Front in France.

Economically, Italy is already a disaster, with public debt standing
at €2.17 trillion, or 133% of gross domestic product (GDP). This
also could cause a major eurozone financial crisis, significantly
worse than the one caused by Greece's public debt.

But instead of looking for ways to reduce that debt, Di Maio and
Salvini want to increase it by another €125 billion. Right-wing
Salvini wants to cut taxes. Left-wing Di Maio wants to substantially
increase public spending, including providing a guaranteed minimum
income of €780 per month to each person.

So Italy's government has stabilized for now, but few people expect
that stability to last long. Bloomberg and Euro News and CNBC and CNN

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Madrid, Catalonia,
Pedro Sánchez, Quim Torra, Mariano Rajoy,
Italy, Five-Star Movement, M5S, Luigi Di Maio,
La Lega, The (Northern) League, Matteo Salvini.
Giuseppe Conte, Paolo Savona, Sergio Mattarella

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

4-Jun-18 World View -- Violence between herders and farmers surges in Nigeria - John J. Xenakis - 06-03-2018

*** 4-Jun-18 World View -- Violence between herders and farmers surges in Nigeria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Violence between herders and farmers surges in Nigeria
Nigeria's amnesty program in Niger Delta under fire

****
**** Violence between herders and farmers surges in Nigeria
****

[Image: g180603b.jpg]

Boy guarding herd of cattle in Nigeria

I've written frequently about ethnic violence between farmers and
herders in many countries -- Central African Republic, Nigeria,
Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the
1800s. The farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their
crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's
meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders
knock them down.

In Nigeria, the problem has become so serious that it appears that
more people have been killed in conflicts between farmers and herders
than in the conflict with Boko Haram -- or by the militancy in the
Niger Delta in the south of Nigeria.

In the latest incident, in Nigeria's norther state of Zamfara, cattle
thieves killed more than 20 people, and burned down their entire
village.

The incident was described on the BBC by Mary Harper, the Africa
editor (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"In Zamfara state, which is in the far north of
Nigeria, cattle thieves came on motorbikes into a village.
Initially some vigilantes who had been set up by the local
community tried to deal with these thieves who come regularly to
try to steal their cattle. They managed to chase the cattle
thieves away, but then the thieves came back again, and killed
lots of the vigilantes, and other villagers, burned their houses
down, and made off with many, many heads of cattle."<END QUOTE>

Several weeks ago, we reported on the killing of two priests because
of farmer-herder conflicts in Benue State,
in central Nigeria. Harper says that the motives for the
violence in northern versus central Nigeria are the same, but it's
perceived differently by the public because the farmers in central
Nigeria are usually Christian:

<QUOTE>"In northern Nigeria, it's a more a conflict between
settled farmers and herding communities, or it's a criminals who
basically just go into villages and attack nomads, and take their
cattle. Cattle are worth a huge amount of money. There's about
80 million heads of cattle in Nigeria -- they're a precious
resource.

So in the north, because most people are Muslim, it's more a
matter of criminality. But in other parts of Nigeria, especially
in the middle region, many of the farmers are Christian, and many
of the herders are Muslim, so it's being portrayed by some people
as a religious conflict, even though it's actually far more
complicated than that."<END QUOTE>

The violence between farmers and herders in Nigeria appears to getting
more and more serious, and with the huge amount of money involved, the
government seems helpless to do anything about it. According to
Harper:

<QUOTE>"The government faces a huge challenge. It faces a
big insurgency in the northeast with Islamists, militants, Boko
Haram. And then in the south [in the Niger Delta], it has
oil-related violence. So security forces are already very badly
stretched, but at the more people are being killed in this
violence related to cattle and farms, than in either the north
with the Islamist insurgency, or the south. And even though
they've deployed the military to that region, they seem unable to
control it.

And often people say that the people in the government and the
army are actually complicit in the problem, they're corrupt,
they've become part of the problem, rather than trying to solve
it."<END QUOTE>

The last remark about the complicity of government being part of the
problem has been a theme in several of the reports I've written about
farmer versus herder violence. In particular, it's been suggested
that Nigeria's president, Muhammadu Buhari, who is a Fulani and owns
large herds of cattle, has been complicit in some of the herder
attacks on farmers. BBC and BBC

Related Articles:

****
**** Nigeria's amnesty program in Niger Delta under fire
****

Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta has the capacity to produce over two
million barrels of oil per day, but for years militants have attacked
national pipeline installations, causing national production to fall.

The militants use a practice known as "oil bunkering." Thieves cut
into the pipes, attach spigots, and divert some of the oil for their
own uses. The Niger Delta is dotted with illegal refineries that
produce crude gasoline, kerosene and diesel fuel. Much of the
diverted oil spills onto the ground, creating an environmental
nightmare, and the reset is used or sold by the militants.

In 2009, Nigeria implemented an unconditional amnesty for militants,
known as the Presidential Amnesty Program (PAP) or the Niger Delta
Amnesty Program (NDAP). The program provided the militants with an
income of about $180 per month, much more than the average worker in
Nigeria. Approximately 30,000 people in the Niger Delta signed up for
the free monthly income, although only 2,700 weapons were surrendered.

However, the free income program did appear to be cost effective.
Before the amnesty, the militants reduced Nigeria's production
capacity by 900,000 barrels per day. After the amnesty, the loss was
reduced to 200,000 barrels per day.

The amnesty program was supposed to last only five years, but when it
was discontinued in 2015, oil bunkering surged again. It was
estimated that from January to October 2016, the government lost about
$5.8 million in revenue because of the bunkering. So the amnesty
program, and the free monthly payments, have been restored. Today,
Nigeria's crude oil output is about 2.2 million barrels per day.

The amnesty program is seen by many as a waste of government money,
since it gives free money to criminals.

However, Prof. Charles Dokubo, special advisor to president Buhari,
insists that the amnesty program must continue:

<QUOTE>"The alternative will be too ghastly to contemplate. ...

The fact is that to maintain the existing peace in the region is
quite important for our function. If there’s a crisis in the
region, then, basically all we are putting in place will not work.

You have oil revenue increasing and the Federal Government has
some more money to pay into the amnesty program to also empower
our people by training them and giving them the requisite skills
to perform well in an economy that is open.

If that is done, for me, I would have achieved all that I want in
the program."<END QUOTE>

However, violence has once again been increasing in the Niger Delta,
so some further measures will be required. There's already a heavy
Nigerian army presence in the Niger Delta, but the fact that they've
been relatively ineffective leads many to believed that they're
sharing in the actions of the militants. Vanguard (Nigeria) and Punch (Nigeria) and Forbes and AP (20-Jul-2013)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Zamfara, Mary Harper,
Boko Haram, Niger Delta, Muhammadu Buhari,
Presidential Amnesty Program, PAP,
Niger Delta Amnesty Program, NDAP,
Charles Dokubo

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5-Jun-18 World View -- Jordan's government in chaos as PM resigns in face of anti-gov - John J. Xenakis - 06-04-2018

*** 5-Jun-18 World View -- Jordan's government in chaos as PM resigns in face of anti-government protests

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Jordan's government in chaos as PM resigns in face of anti-government protests
Fears grow that Jordan will be the next victim of the 'Arab Spring'

****
**** Jordan's government in chaos as PM resigns in face of anti-government protests
****

[Image: g180604b.jpg]

Protests in Amman, Jordan, on Sunday (Sky News)

Anger over a proposed tax law has triggered five days of mass protests
in the streets of Amman, the capital city of Jordan, by thousands of
protesters, forcing Jordan's prime minister Hani Mulki to hand in his
resignation.

The protests were non-violent, but they are exceptional because any
protests at all have been rare in Jordan for decades. Nonetheless, 60
people were arrested for breaking the law, and 42 security force
members were injured.

Jordan's battered economy comes from an unemployment rate of 18.4%,
with a burgeoning population in one of the arid countries in the
world.

The wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Sudan that began with the "Arab
Spring" in 2011 have been particularly harsh Jordan's economy.
According to the United Nations human rights agency (UNHCR), Jordan is
hosting 750,000 refugees from these wars. There are 650,000 Syrians,
and the others are from Yemen, Iraq and Sudan.

The proposed law would raise taxes on ordinary people by at least 5%,
and on businesses by 20-40%. The tax increases are part of an
austerity program required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in
return for an IMF loan of $723 million to Jordan in 2016. The tax
increases come after five successive fuel price rises, electricity
hikes, and the scrapping of bread subsidies.

Jordan’s King Abdullah replaced the departing prime minister Hani
Mulki with Omar al-Razzaz, a former World Bank economist, in the hope
that al-Razzaz can form a government that will be able to find a
magical way to solve all the economics. Petra (Jordan) and Reuters
and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Fears grow that Jordan will be the next victim of the 'Arab Spring'
****

[Image: g180604c.jpg]

Jordan's King Abdullah shakes hands with Iran's president Hassan Rouhani at last month's OIC meeting in Istanbul (hala.jo)

The current protests were triggered by the proposed tax law
that will substantially raise taxes on an already impoverished
public.

But a scathing editorial in the Jordan Times describes how the
situation in Jordan is far worse than simply the fact that people are
extremely poor:

<QUOTE>"From the view of the people taking part in the
protests: government officials keep get high salaries regardless
of the duration of their services, ministers get salaries for life
even if they serve for one day, officials get luxury cars with
drivers from taxpayers’ money, they do not pay for gasoline and
thus are unaware of the burdens people are shouldering, they get
to travel a lot to unneeded conferences and they get per diems for
doing so, they send their children to expensive private schools,
rather than poorly equipped government schools, they receive
treatment at private hospitals or abroad as public hospitals are
left for the needy, etc. People also complain that the government
is not serious in tackling corruption, big and small, and is not
doing much to improve basic services and cutting expenses and
little is being done to ensure that services are being offered to
citizens in a fair manner."<END QUOTE>

From time immemorial, this kind of situation where peasants and
workers need protection from excesses of their élite leaders has led
to popular protests, some more serious than others, some leading coups
and revolutions.

The "Arab Spring" of 2011, which was triggered by the death of a
Tunisian food vendor, resulted in violent protests in Tunisia, Egypt,
Yemen, Libya, Syria and other Arab countries. So far, Jordan has been
relatively immune, but there are concerns that it's about to be
Jordan's turn. The current crisis could spin out of control and play
into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood or the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Jordan's crisis goes beyond its borders, especially since Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) began their
blockade of Qatar in 2016. This sharp split among the Arab nations
has had the effect of relegating Jordan to secondary status in the
region. Saudi Arabia has stopped providing financial aid to Jordan,
and refused to extend a five-year aid package worth $3.6 billion at
the beginning of 2017.

The United States also provides $1.3 billion financial aid to Jordan
each year, but the Trump administration may halt or reduce that amount
as a result of a general review of foreign aid. The review comes atop
of a sharp cut in US aid to UNRWA, the UN agency which is exclusively
providing services to the roughly 2 million Palestinian Arab refugees
and their descendants in the Hashemite kingdom, and which has
increased the burden on the already very weak Jordanian economy.

Jordan's King Abdullah used to consider Iran to be the mortal foe of
the Arab world, so the Arab world was shocked recently when King
Abdullah had a very friendly handshake with Iran's president Hassan
Rouhani during the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit in
Istanbul.

Following last year's Saudi blockade of Qatar, there was a realignment
of Mideast countries, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel on one
side, and Qatar, Iran and Turkey on the other side. Abdullah's
handshake with Rouhani suggests that Jordan is switching sides to the
second alignment, as Abdullah desperately looks for financial aid.
Jordan Times and Middle East Eye and Israel National News and Middle East Eye

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jordan, King Abdullah, Hani Mulki,
Omar al-Razzaz, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Arab Spring, Muslim Brotherhood, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, turkey, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Israel,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

6-Jun-18 World View -- In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea - John J. Xenakis - 06-05-2018

*** 6-Jun-18 World View -- In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Ethiopia's new PM lifts state of emergency two months early
In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea

****
**** Ethiopia's new PM lifts state of emergency two months early
****

[Image: g180605b.jpg]

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmedat (Getty)

Ethiopia on Tuesday lifted a state of emergency two months early. The
state of emergency had been imposed in February, in response to riots
and demonstrations by millions of people, mostly in Ethiopia's Oromia
region. The state of emergency forbids unauthorized demonstrations or
the distribution of politically sensitive material, and permits
politically motivated arrests without charge.

The government is largely controlled by the ethnic Tigrays, who are a
market and government dominant minority, comprising only 6% of the
population. They are extremely authoritarian and have succeeded in
marginalizing the other ethnic groups, and are said to have informants
in villages throughout the country. They have succeeded in
marginalizing the Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of
Ethiopia's population, and the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises
another 27%. Since late 2015, massive anti-government protests in
Ethiopia's Oromia region, later spreading to the neighboring Amhara
region, left hundreds dead and resulted in tens of thousands of
arrests.

In a major break with tradition, the Tigrays in April of this year
permitted the selection of Abiy Ahmedat, 42, an Oromo leader, to be
prime minister and leader of the governing coalition, in the hope of
ending the chaos and bloodshed.

The early termination of the state of emergency is thought to be a
positive sign that the situation is stabilizing, and that the reforms
being implemented by Abiy are working. It's also being touted as an
opportunity for investors to begin once again exploring investment
opportunities in Ethiopia.

Since taking office, Abiy has visited major cities across Ethiopia,
and appealed to anti-government protesters to give his administration
time to work. He has also continued a campaign of releasing jailed
dissidents. Officials hope that his reform policies will end the
protests permanently.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's almost
impossible that the mass protests will be permanently ended. Ethiopia
is in a generational Awakening era, like America and Europe in the
1960s, or like Iran today, when mass protests are a frequent feature.
Mass protests can end temporarily, or be suppressed by violence from
the security forces, but they return.

Furthermore, whether protests by the Oromos may have temporarily
ended, there are reports that violent attacks are still continuing
against the ethnic Ahmaras. The Nation (Kenya) and CNBC and Addis (Ababa) Standard and TRT World (Turkey)

****
**** In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea
****

Just hours after Ethiopia lifted the state of emergency on Tuesday,
the government took a major surprise step by announcing that it would
fully accept the terms of a peace agreement with Eritrea.

In 1998, a border war broke out between Eritrea and Ethiopia. This
was a non-crisis war, with a quality very similar to World War I,
where trenches were dug, mines were laid, and bodies of dead soldiers
were strewn about. Of the 400,000 men who fought on both sides,
50,000 soldiers died.

A peace deal in 2000 ended the two-year border war, but it was not
fully implemented. Tuesday's announcement says that Ethiopia, for the
first time, accepts the terms of the 2002 border commission report.
The report awarded disputed territories, including the town of Badme,
to Eritrea.

The border war had begun in the May 6, 1998, in a battle for control
of the border town of Badme. This town is described as nothing but a
"humble, dusty market town," with no oil, no diamonds, and no apparent
value, exception emotional. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia wanted the
town, and at the time the resulting war was described as "two bald men
fighting over a comb."

By accepting the agreement, Ethiopia will have to withdraw its
occupying forces from all territories awarded to Eritrea, including
the flashpoint town, Badme. Ethiopia also called on Eritrea to
reciprocate the decision and work toward bringing a lasting peace
between the people of the two countries.

As I described in my 2016 Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea
, Ethiopia is a
Christian country, and Eritrea is a Muslim countries. The two
countries were Italian colonies in the 1800s, and again in the late
1930s as "Italian East Africa." Eritrea declared independence from
Ethiopia in 1993, leading to the 1998-2000 border war. It's very
unlikely that there will be lasting peace. Addis (Ababa) Standard and BBC and Al-Jazeera and BBC

Related Articles:

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Oromia, Tigrays, Amharas,
Abiy Ahmedat, Eritrea, Badme, Italy, Italian East Africa

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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