Presidential election, 2016 - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Current Events (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-34.html) +---- Forum: General Political Discussion (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-15.html) +---- Thread: Presidential election, 2016 (/thread-24.html) |
RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Ragnarök_62 - 09-21-2016 (09-21-2016, 05:21 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: the Washington Compost, I like it. You forgot the New York Crimes. Puppy training's too good for that rag. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Eric the Green - 09-21-2016 (09-21-2016, 11:20 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: En Tejas hay mucha gente Latina, quienes no van a votar por Trump. ESPERO QUE SI! RE: Presidential election, 2016 - pbrower2a - 09-23-2016 I could play some games with newspaper names the Detritus News, the Detritus Free Press the Dallas Moronic News the St. Louis Pus-Discharge Naw. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Anthony '58 - 09-23-2016 (09-22-2016, 04:08 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Drumpf is now spewing shyte about deregulating energy production. And why shouldn't we scratch Putin's back? He's scratching our back in Syria - and Israel's back, too (last November, Russian, Syrian, and Israeli military experts held a three-way pow-wow at an undisclosed location), and also in Crimea (the Crimean Tatars were one of al Qaeda's best customers) and that region generally (the Ukrainian neo-fascists have long had an entente cordiale with Hamas). All we have to do is keep both Russia and China at least neutral in the New Cold War against radical Islam, and we've got this, so to speak. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - pbrower2a - 09-23-2016 How long will it be before Vladimir Putin asks for Alaska back? RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Bob Butler 54 - 09-23-2016 (09-23-2016, 07:50 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: How long will it be before Vladimir Putin asks for Alaska back? Would he have to keep Sarah? RE: Presidential election, 2016 - pbrower2a - 09-23-2016 Before I leave for the weekend: Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®: Tie -- white 60% or more -- saturation 8 55-59.9% -- saturation 6 50-54.9% -- saturation 5 45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4 45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3 45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9% -- saturation 2 Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable. The three-way map: Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ® vs. Gary Johnson (L): RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Eric the Green - 09-26-2016 (09-23-2016, 07:19 AM)Anthony 58 Wrote:(09-22-2016, 04:08 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Drumpf is now spewing shyte about deregulating energy production. Putin is attacking us behind our back n Syria; bombing our allies, taking advantage of our reluctance to push his status there and in the world. Meeting and strategizing with the worst dictator in the world? Not good. Very bad. He usurped control in Crimea in a totally illegitimate way. He needs to be stood up to, not scratched. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - pbrower2a - 09-27-2016 Hillary Clinton didn't win this debate; Donald Trump lost it. He showed himself arrogant, doctrinaire, and elitist. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Eric the Green - 09-28-2016 Trump vs. Clinton vs. Other poll averages from 270towin http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/ RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Eric the Green - 09-28-2016 http://www.270towin.com/map-images/clinton-trump-electoral-map RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Eric the Green - 09-28-2016 Now-cast: "Who would win the election if it were held today" based on 538 http://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-maps-derived-from-fivethirtyeight-forecasts RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Bob Butler 54 - 09-29-2016 (05-18-2016, 07:28 AM)Odin Wrote: Boston men jailed for Trump-inspired hate crime attack The article doesn't say it explicitly, but it looks like the thugs were jailed on state charges rather than federal. I don't think President Trump could have pardoned them. I don't know that he would if he could. He walks the edge of the line. He wants the votes and the emotion of the racists. He generally shy's one 'you misunderstood what I said' away from explicit hate speech though. I don't know that he would go as far as endorsing all out black shirt racial violence. We'll see if he denounces the liberal Massachusetts court system and its refusal to recognize metal pipes as a legitimate tool of free speech. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - pbrower2a - 09-29-2016 It may be troublesome, but I may have a fresh cause for a restart. Monday's debate performance by Hillary Clinton was understated, civil, and topical without going for the kill. Donald Trump's debate performance was simply execrable. I'm going binary only. If Gary Johnson were to have a chance at a late-season charge, he has yet to show it. This is time for a nearly-complete restart. Nearly complete, because old polls for some states may be all that we will ever have. Some states (and the District of Columbia) just don't get polled often. Begin by clearing all results for states except those for which little credible polling exists and whose electoral character is a lock. If there is any controversy about polling I now show nothing until I see a new poll. Multitudes who had tuned out Donald Trump for a while have gotten the chance to see him. They had to if they were to see Hillary Clinton in the debate. States (and DC) whose prior results look uncontroversial include AL AK AR CA CT DE DC HI ID IL IN KS KY LA MD MA MT NE (except for the second congressional district) NJ ND NY OK OR RI TN VT WA WV WY All other states go blank (gray) now. Even Texas and Utah hold some controversies. Anything close before the debate will not be shown here. Afterward? Of course. Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®: Tie -- white 60% or more -- saturation 8 55-59.9% -- saturation 6 50-54.9% -- saturation 5 45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4 45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3 45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9% -- saturation 2 Hillary Clinton (D) 182 Donald Trump ® 94 Since the debate (in which Donald Trump performed catastrophically), 195 electoral votes (those in Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida) have been accounted for in polls (I saw one for California, and it was a slight gain for Hillary Clinton in a sure-thing state) -- all show their states going to Hillary Clinton, if not above the margin of error in Florida. Donald Trump has no way of winning the Presidential election barring a huge change in the realities in this Presidential election. Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®: Tie -- white 60% or more -- saturation 8 55-59.9% -- saturation 7 50-54.9% -- saturation 6 45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4 45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3 45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9% -- saturation 2 Hillary Clinton (D) 289 Donald Trump ® 94 RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Eric the Green - 09-29-2016 Trump could have a chance if some of the smaller swing states that have trended in his favor, stay that way. If he wins these Obama swing states: OH 18 FL 29 NC 15 (Romney in 2012, but trending more Democratic) CO 9 NV 6 IA 6 And these weak Romney states: GA 16 AZ 11 MO 10 And these other red states: SC 9 WV 5 KY 8 TN 11 IN 11 AL 9 MS 6 LA 8 Ark. 6 TX 38 OK 7 KS 6 NE 5 ND & SD 6 MT 3 WY 3 ID 4 AK 3 UT 6 Then he wins 274 electoral votes, without winning any of the Obama industrial midwest states except purple Ohio, where he now has a slim lead. Right now FL is slightly favoring Hillary, and NC is dead tied. CO is giving mixed signals, while NV and most of all IA are trending Trump. If national polls swing toward Hillary, as they may be starting to do, then these states may also swing to Hillary. There is a lag in state polls. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - pbrower2a - 09-29-2016 The Dallas Morning News, the Arizona Republic, the Manchester Union-Leader and the Detroit News, four very conservative newspapers, have endorsed either Hillary Clinton or Gary Johnson, breaking a pattern going back seventy years or more. USA Today has never endorsed a Presidential nominee in its history until today. Now comes one of the most devastating possible critiques of a Presidential nominee. Quote:The Editorial Board has never taken sides in the presidential race. We're doing it now. Any questions? RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Bob Butler 54 - 09-29-2016 (09-29-2016, 11:06 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Now comes one of the most devastating possible critiques of a Presidential nominee. Perhaps not the most devastating critique possible, but they really gave it their best shot. It will do. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Odin - 09-30-2016 (09-26-2016, 11:19 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: There are some idiotic things the Leftists do which fuel the fire of Trumpism. Here are some examples: TIL that the movement to lower the voting age is still a thing. Back when I was in high school the whole "Youth Rights" thing was very popular but dropped off as the first half of the Millennials entered adulthood. I used to be completely for a 16yo voting age, but now as a 30yo I understand just how stupid teenagers are. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - Bob Butler 54 - 09-30-2016 (09-30-2016, 12:33 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: The best I've seen thus far. Non partisan, and 100% morally driven. Anyone who is sane will heed this advice. Definitely a well written piece I agree with entirely. If there is something there I haven't written, I've thought it, or now wish I had. But I also recently watched a bit of video where a CNN reporter with cameraman was walking around a Trump gathering the day after the first debate. Most every one there who wasn't left on CNN's cutting room floor seemed sincerely and intensely convinced that Trump won the debate. People have a truly amazing ability to hear what they want to hear, to be convinced of what they are already convinced. While it may seem to many that anyone vaguely sane will reject Trump, this is only true if a large chunk of the United States is not sane. RE: Presidential election, 2016 - The Wonkette - 09-30-2016 (09-29-2016, 04:07 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Trump could have a chance if some of the smaller swing states that have trended in his favor, stay that way.He'd have to win ALL of those States, correct? That is quite a tall order. |