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+--- Thread: The Great Power Saeculum 4T (/thread-422.html)
The Great Power Saeculum 4T - X_4AD_84 - 08-30-2016
History does not repeat but it rhymes.
Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.
Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.
Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt/episodes/player
Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Eric the Green - 09-03-2016
No, we should not contemplate such events.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Cynic Hero '86 - 09-03-2016
The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Galen - 09-06-2016
(09-06-2016, 10:16 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:(09-03-2016, 01:50 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.
If you mean avoiding WW3 by becoming a new Russian satellite state, then I will die fighting WW3 before I suck up to the God damned Kremlin.
That condition is as unlikely now as it was during the Cold War. What will end it the US hegemony that started when the Soviet Union collapsed. Given the current state of the economy in the US and the decline of the dollar as reserve currency of the world, this is inevitable.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Mikebert - 09-07-2016
(08-30-2016, 08:53 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: History does not repeat but it rhymes.I read that book in junior high. It had a chilling effect. I read On the Beach in college. About a decade ago I saw the film. It was hard to watch, I kept seeing my granddaughter as the child in the film. Recently I saw Fail Safe and my blood ran cold.
Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.
Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.
Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt/episodes/player
Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.
I do not see how we are paralleling the Great Power Saeculum on any basis other than the most superficial, to wit we were 4T in 1945 and we are 4T now.
In terms of timing, I see the current 4T as more like the revolution or the Civil War 4T and completely unlike the last 4T. I have spent nearly two decades unraveling this stuff since I read Generations in 1998. I posted a brief analysis in the theory section in the Political Cycle Model thread.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Mikebert - 09-07-2016
(09-03-2016, 01:50 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.
I'd guess you probably like Trump. Trump is more belligerent than Clinton and Clinton is plenty belligerent. Neither of them are as belligerent as you though.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Mikebert - 09-07-2016
(09-06-2016, 12:30 PM)Galen Wrote: What will end it the US hegemony that started when the Soviet Union collapsed. Given the current state of the economy in the US and the decline of the dollar as reserve currency of the world, this is inevitable.
How could this be otherwise? Despite that the US is still in an excellent position given geography.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Mikebert - 09-07-2016
(09-07-2016, 02:32 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:Of course not. I knew that when I read it 40 years ago. So what is your point? Nuclear war isn't scary?(09-07-2016, 12:51 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(08-30-2016, 08:53 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: History does not repeat but it rhymes.I read that book in junior high. It had a chilling effect. I read On the Beach in college. About a decade ago I saw the film. It was hard to watch, I kept seeing my granddaughter as the child in the film. Recently I saw Fail Safe and my blood ran cold.
Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.
Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.
Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt/episodes/player
Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.
I do not see how we are paralleling the Great Power Saeculum on any basis other than the most superficial, to wit we were 4T in 1945 and we are 4T now.
In terms of timing, I see the current 4T as more like the revolution or the Civil War 4T and completely unlike the last 4T. I have spent nearly two decades unraveling this stuff since I read Generations in 1998. I posted a brief analysis in the theory section in the Political Cycle Model thread.
"On the Beach" is complete rubbish, scientifically speaking. What was depicted in that story is not possible. Fall out and global circulation do not work that way. Of course, the point of that story was to scare people.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Warren Dew - 09-07-2016
(08-30-2016, 08:53 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: History does not repeat but it rhymes.
Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.
Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.
Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt/episodes/player
Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.
Who do you think will be firing the weapons? The U.S.? Russia? China? India and Pakistan? Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Among those, India and Pakistan are the ones that both have high fertility rates, and thus growing need for resources that may become scarce, a traditional reason for war. Certainly that was the nominal reason for Germany in the Great Power cycle.
I'm having difficulty envisioning either India or Pakistan uniting enough to pursue a truly expansionist policy, though.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - David Horn - 09-08-2016
(09-07-2016, 12:51 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I do not see how we are paralleling the Great Power Saeculum on any basis other than the most superficial, to wit we were 4T in 1945 and we are 4T now.
In terms of timing, I see the current 4T as more like the revolution or the Civil War 4T and completely unlike the last 4T. I have spent nearly two decades unraveling this stuff since I read Generations in 1998. I posted a brief analysis in the theory section in the Political Cycle Model thread.
I agree. Superficially, we are struggling with the same issues this time as we did last time: economic dominance by a small elite and widespread international tensions. How we're struggling is more important, and I don't see this cycle following the last playbook.
In international affairs, we emulate a Southern favorite dish: waffles and chicken. We don't mind volunteer cannon fodder going off and doing this and that, but please, no draft or even meaningful involvement by the rest of us. On economic matters, we are no less conflicted, bemoaning the state of the main street economy, while focusing like a laser on comfort for the already comfortable. On the issue of climate change, we prefer to ignore it completely.
This is an unstable paradigm that seems less likely to be resolved with clarity and justice than just allowed to fester until it explodes.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Eric the Green - 09-18-2016
That seems about right, David. Things are going to boil until they boil over.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Eric the Green - 09-18-2016
(09-07-2016, 01:16 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(09-03-2016, 01:50 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.
I'd guess you probably like Trump. Trump is more belligerent than Clinton and Clinton is plenty belligerent. Neither of them are as belligerent as you though.
We have some very bad posters here. I guess trolls go with the terror-tory. What with Terror-marie's verbal terrorism, and Cynic's warped worldview, etc., it just shows we are a good sample of the warped state of the public mind today.
RE: The Great Power Saeculum 4T - Odin - 09-19-2016
(09-18-2016, 09:21 PM)taramarie Wrote: To those who are new to the conflict between Eric and myself I will tell you where it all began quickly. He was the original bully calling certain music crap and rubbish and wrong etc and smearing gen xers as awful for liking that music. I am not an xer but because he was bullying them for culture they love and continues to do so to this day as well as constantly berating any music he does not approve of vehemently that was when I started on him.He is a cultural bully who does not like the same treatment being targeted on him. When cornered he just simply says it is my right to behave this way. The man is a child who is not accepting of others.
Eric's lack of self-awareness would be hilarious if it weren't so sad.