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Australia - Teejay - 09-02-2018 My name is Tristan and I used to be involved on the old Fourth Turning forum back in the day. I was born in 1983 and currently live in Hobart, which is in the Island state of Tasmania. I have been busy with my life in recent years, however the saeculum still remains on my mind. I have to admit William Strauss and Neil Howe's predictions have been extremely accurate so far and my faith in the saeculum is stronger than ever. I am a short to medium term pessimist, however a longer term optimism since winter will end eventually and spring will come. Generationally I would see myself as a late wave Reactive or Nomad, since Australia is about 4 years behind North America when it comes to turnings. I do see people a few years younger than me in a different generation, which I find hard to relate to. Personally, I do feel I have become a “young fogey”, which Strauss and Howe did predict that for Generation X as they entered midlife. I am concerned about the appetite for authoritarianism which the Millennial generation I have observed certainly have. Especially when it comes to the curtailing of free speech which is considered offensive. This is a concern I share with some X’er and X’er peers have including Jordan Peterson (b.1962). Because once the financial crisis hits Australia, authoritarianism will certainly emerge, especially given the failure of our political class to address the concerns of voters so far. I am not sure when the Fourth Turning started in Australia anytime between 2008 and 2012 roughly, there was no bang like there was in Europe with the Global Financial Crisis (which we escaped so far). What has happened political since then, at least federally has been shambolic to put it. We have had in eight years, five separate prime ministers and six changes of Prime Minister. Also there has been hyper-partisanship which has characterized federal politics, this has led to an unprecedented apathy towards our political class. I do believe this has to do with the Boomer peers in their elder stage having dominated the legislatures for quite a while and the country having four Boomer Prime Ministers from 2007 to just a week ago (Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull). However, their political power has definitely peaked, For example the current Prime Minister (Scott Morrison) and every state premier is a Generation X peer and that generation definitely have the majority in Federal and State parliaments. Our Silent generation peers have been gone from public life for quite a while now and sorely missed. There pessimism in society about the future, there are concerns about climate change, cost of living and increasing inequality in the economy. Also there is a lot of frustration at our political leaders about not addressing their concerns. The last couple of decades has been characterized by a housing boom of epic proportions which has led to the Millennial generation so far being shut out (unless their parents can assist them financially) of the housing market because of unaffordable prices. While the economy has been growing for nearly three decades now. Since the GFC wage growth has been pretty much non-existent in real terms and unemployment (especially youth unemployment) has been high. Public opinion in recent years have been incredibly concerned about the opportunities (or lack therefore) of the Millennial generation in both the labor and housing markets. All a while in this time, Australia has been running very high levels of immigration (as an attempt to keep house prices rising by stimulating more demand), which has fueled significant anti-immigration sentiment among the public. Also, we had a commodities boom during the earlier part of this decade, which lead to an over-inflated currency and hollowing out of our manufacturing base. Once the housing market crashes, Australia I predict will undergo an economic depression on the scale of what Greece has suffered. Right now, I am predicting our current party system is going to collapse (along with the economy) like it did in Italy and new political parties rise up in the place of the former ones. Authoritarianism and demise of our liberal democracy with an ‘illiberal’ one like that current in Hungary could happen, if the Millennials believe it is price worth paying for seriously addressing the country’s issues. There has been a increasing amount of what I see as authoritarianism through limits on free speech which has occurred in Australia in recent years and it will probably get worse in my opinion. So far, the Millennial generation have not been engaged very much in politics like they have in the United States (Obama and Sanders), also in the United Kingdom (with Jeremy Corbyn). No political figure or party so far has managed to tap into the power of the Millennial vote and people I speak to are very dismissive of my opinions. However, their activism has certainly been in evidence. For example; a left-wing activist group GetUp has more members than either of our major political parties (Labor or Liberal). Also, Millennial activism little doubt played a part in a high turnout (80%) and success of (61.8% voting Yes) a plebiscite last year to allow for same sex marriage to be legalized federally. However, I do believe the Millennials here are very politically radical, however I don't know which politician or party will tap into their power. RE: Australia - David Horn - 09-02-2018 Tristan -- good to hear from you after all this time. Please post often if you can. You are the only voice from your part of the world. since our resident Kiwi went silent several months ago. RE: Australia - Teejay - 09-02-2018 (09-02-2018, 07:49 PM)David Horn Wrote: Tristan -- good to hear from you after all this time. Please post often if you can. You are the only voice from your part of the world. since our resident Kiwi went silent several months ago. It is nice to see some of the old crew still around, may I ask if there is a Facebook page which I could join. Who was the Kiwi on the forum?, I want to see what the Kiwi has written. Apart from following enough Australian politics to get by hehe, I have also been following European politics and current affairs in the last year or so. The developments which have occurred during the Fourth Turning there have been exterminating concerning, if not scary. For example; the European Union could collapse in the next few years. Because Brexit could be the start of this process, along with the migrant crisis, the economic depressions countries such as Spain and especially Greece have undergone. Also people are predicting a civil war between the Muslim and native populations of Western Europe, given that France was in a state of emergency for two years after the terrorist attacks of November 2015 such fears could be justifiable. RE: Australia - David Horn - 09-03-2018 (09-02-2018, 08:14 PM)Teejay Wrote:(09-02-2018, 07:49 PM)David Horn Wrote: Tristan -- good to hear from you after all this time. Please post often if you can. You are the only voice from your part of the world. since our resident Kiwi went silent several months ago. Yes, I'm among the hardcore, apparently. Eric Meese and pbrower are here as well, as are many others who post less often. Teejay Wrote:Who was the Kiwi on the forum?, I want to see what the Kiwi has written. She's the most senior member of this forum except for the Webmaster. She uses here real name: taramarie, and she's definitely a Millenial, regardless of any offset to the US timeline.[/quote] Teejay Wrote:Apart from following enough Australian politics to get by hehe, I have also been following European politics and current affairs in the last year or so. The developments which have occurred during the Fourth Turning there have been exterminating concerning, if not scary. For example; the European Union could collapse in the next few years. Because Brexit could be the start of this process, along with the migrant crisis, the economic depressions countries such as Spain and especially Greece have undergone. I wonder. How much of the anguish is due to the relentless pulse of social media? Frankly, I don't know, but the issue needs to be examined. RE: Australia - Eric the Green - 09-04-2018 Tristan/Tee-jay it sounds like Australia is experiencing much the same things as the USA. My impression has been that Australia does better than the USA on many indexes, and has been more progressive on some issues. I doubt it will go the way Hungary is going, because Australia like most anglosphere countries has a longer history of democracy. Hungary's is really only a couple of decades old. If the millennials can get active and act on their situation, the labor party can take over and move Australia in a better direction soon. The "liberal" (neo-liberal) party seems to be imploding and losing popularity. But things are unstable, it seems, most everywhere, so we can't tell for sure what will happen. The cosmic trends that indicate a progressive decade ahead in the USA may not fully apply to Australia, but they will in part at least. RE: Australia - Teejay - 09-04-2018 (09-04-2018, 12:07 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Tristan/Tee-jay it sounds like Australia is experiencing much the same things as the USA. My impression has been that Australia does better than the USA on many indexes, and has been more progressive on some issues. I doubt it will go the way Hungary is going, because Australia like most anglosphere countries has a longer history of democracy. Hungary's is really only a couple of decades old. If the millennials can get active and act on their situation, the labor party can take over and move Australia in a better direction soon. The "liberal" (neo-liberal) party seems to be imploding and losing popularity. But things are unstable, it seems, most everywhere, so we can't tell for sure what will happen. I wished I shared your optimism, although our Liberal (neo-liberal would be a more accurate description) Party is on the verge of disintegrating at any moment. If Peter Dutton had replaced Malcolm Turnbull instead of Scott Morrison that process would have started. Since Dutton was going to take the party into a direction the Republicans have under Trump. If that had occurred the genuine Liberals in the party would have revolted and the party would have split. I do not discount the possibility if the Labor wins the next federal election (due by May 2019) and the Liberals enter into opposition, an another leader could take the party into a Trump style direction. RE: Australia - Teejay - 09-05-2018 Come to think of it we in Australia had a Prime Minister who was lot like Donald Trump for about two years (2013-2015), Tony Abbott, his government got elected in a landslide and his party deposed him as their leader two years after that. Tony Abbott got exactly the same sort of responses from people as Donald Trump does. Even three years after he was deposed as Liberal Leader. Tony Abbott still has legions of fans out in voter land who want him back in the job. No doubt if Peter Dutton had won the recent Liberal Party leadership battle, Tony Abbott would have been back in the cabinet and influencing the government. Also I have a fair idea what Trump supporters are like. RE: Australia - Tim Randal Walker - 09-05-2018 Welcome back, Tristan. Good to have someone report on Australia. BTW, a fellow named Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) believes that the European Union will collapse. Zeihan has a number of videos on YouTube describing his predictions. RE: Australia - Teejay - 09-05-2018 (09-05-2018, 04:14 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Welcome back, Tristan. Thank you Tim, I need to check out his channel, he ain't the only one predicting that. The European Union issue pretty complicated and Eurosceptic is far from an united movement. I am more inclined on predicting that it will be reformed to make it more democratic. Since I believe Britain might rejoin the European Union eventually, since the Millennial's there are strongly in favor of Britain being in the European Union. During the Brexit referendum they voted very strongly for remaining in the European while older generations voted strongly to leave. RE: Australia - David Horn - 09-07-2018 (09-05-2018, 05:35 PM)Teejay Wrote:(09-05-2018, 04:14 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Welcome back, Tristan. I don't see the EU getting its act together until there is a true solution to the refugee crisis. The entire middle east can't uproot and migrate to the EU, so stability there has to be priority #1. So far, invading, bombing, providing military advisors and old-fashioned diplomacy have failed miserably. The quiver is looking pretty empty at this point. Since Turkey looks like just another autocratic state, they can't be relied upon to help either. And forget Israel. They're toxic outside the autocratic Sunni nations, and not all that well liked within them either. Trying to be 21st century societies with 12th century societal neighbors is a lot worse than just nonfunctional. Its volatile. The nations closest to the problem want to move ahead, but they seem less able as time goes by. Russia is making it even worse. Add religion, and things become implacable. Africa isn't much better. Modern weapons in abundance makes solutions unlikely. RE: Australia - David Horn - 11-13-2019 (11-13-2019, 03:41 AM)taramarie Wrote: Ok I see I am mentioned here. Not sure why as this is a thread for Australia... I suspect that Teejay may be one of the original T4T posters, who happens to be from Aus: Tristan. If so, there's your answer. RE: Australia - Teejay - 11-13-2019 (11-13-2019, 05:27 PM)David Horn Wrote:(11-13-2019, 03:41 AM)taramarie Wrote: Ok I see I am mentioned here. Not sure why as this is a thread for Australia... Yep I was a poster in the Old T4T forum, I joined back in 2001. However I became disengaged from Generational Theory for quite a long time. I only got reengaged with it, in the last year or so. RE: Australia - Teejay - 11-13-2019 David Horn, Starting off, if I wasn’t familiar with Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, I would consider myself as a Millennial. However, being familiar with Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, I consider myself as archetypically a Nomad, with a quite Nomad upbringing, which includes remembering the last Awakening if somewhat faintly and seeing myself as a late wave member of a Nomad generation. Although these days I don’t act like a typical Nomad anymore, I might have acquired some Civic and especially Artist traits in the meantime. Indeed, I know plenty of people a little younger than myself, who are much more Nomads than me, including my sister born in 1985. According to McCrindle research they define the dates of the Millennial generation in Australia from being 1980 to 1995. However, they use quite different methodologies, to what I use. Because I use Strauss and Howe's generational theory, then apply it to observations of Australian history, politics, culture and my own personal observations as well. Looking through things through the prism of Strauss and Howe generational theory. Australian turnings and generations are currently about 5-6 years behind North America. That explains why a lot of our early to middle 1960s cohorts are Prophets, those early to middle 1980’s cohorts are Nomads and 2000’s cohorts are Civics. Also, for much of the 1960’s Australia was in a First Turning, pretty much the whole of the 1980s was in an Awakening and the much of the 2000s we were in an Unravelling. When it comes to Australian Millennial and Generation Z cohorts, McCrindle describes the Millennials as mixed Nomad/Civics, while Generation Z cohorts are described as Civics. Indeed, our current young adult Civic generation are being identified with Generation Z cohorts. When it comes to my cohorts (I was born in 1983) who were born in the early to middle 1980's, while there are a few Civics, however the rest are pretty much Nomads. On the other hand, those 1990s and 2000s cohorts are Civics. Also given our last Awakening ended in 1989/90, then the approximate Nomad/Civic generation boundary is around 1986/1987. Even then it is not until the 1990s cohorts when the Civic archetype pretty much dominates. That reflects only in the last year or two, that the young adulthood Civic generation have just found their political voice and our Neo-Artists (which are for the greater part in the Generation Alpha cohorts) are just starting to get noticed. That contrasts with America, according to former American T4T forum users I talk to, they say that the America Millennial's found their political voice back in the early part of this decade and the current child Artist generation is being associated with Generation Z cohorts. These are my estimates of Australian turnings and generations High 1950-1968 Awakening 1968-1989 Unraveling 1989-2009 Crisis 2009-2028? Builder (Artist) 1927-1946 Boomer (Prophet) 1947-1965? Generation X & Y (Nomad) 1966?-1986 Millennial (Civic) 1987-2006 Generation Alpha (Artist) 2007?- RE: Australia - Teejay - 11-14-2019 Why do I argue 1989 was when Australia's last Awakening ended, well the national mood was euphoric throughout the 1980s and only soured with the 'Recession we had to have' which started in 1990. The 'Recession we had to have' was actually said by then Treasurer and future Prime Minister Paul Keating. Throughout much of the 1980s Australia had a Federal Labor government, who was led by Bob Hawke (1930-2019) and Paul Keating (1944), both belonged to the Builder generation or version of the Silents. Bob Hawke is seen as our version of Teddy Roosevelt and Paul Keating can be seen as a Woodrow Wilson sort of figure. Also there were events in Tasmania which indicate as well, that Australia's last Awakening ended in 1989. Tasmania was the state that I born and grew up in, in the 1980s Tasmania featured some of the fiercest battle of the last Awakening in Australia. Since there were legendary disputes over the building of Hydro-electric dams and logging of native forests. This activism involved stuff as for example; People going on canoes and boats on rivers where dams were being constructed and people chaining themselves to trees to prevent them being cut down. I actually have personally have known some Boomer's of the "New Age Missionary" type, who were involved in this activism. They described it as their own Woodstock moment, does that remind you of some American Missionaries anyone? Not to say there were other controversial issues in Tasmania at this time, there was also the Gay Rights issue and the campaign to legalize male homosexual sex (which was not achieved until 1996). These issues dominated the state's politics for the whole decade, so much that it was often the main issue in state elections. Also a Conservative government which rallied against the Environmentalist counterculture ruled the state for much of the 1980s. The last state election where environmental issues dominated, was the 1989 Tasmanian State Election. The issue which totally dominated the election, was a proposed pulp mill, near a place called Wesley Vale in Northern Tasmania. This issue was do dominant that a mass movement was formed to protest against the proposed Pulp mill. Indeed it gotten so big, that the predecessors of the Tasmanian Greens party won 17% of the vote and 5 out of 35 members of the state's House of Assembly, this led to the formation of a minority Labor government with Greens support and the pulp mill never got built. Therefore; the Tasmanian State election of 1989, much like the Second Summer of Love in Britain and especially the fall of the Berlin wall in Europe. So, the Tasmanian State Election of 1989 was the swansong of our last 2T. It marked the end of a profound social revolution, where the counterculture ultimately won. Anyway this is an article about the most legendary of these disputes, that of the proposed Franklin below Gordon dam in South-west Tasmania. https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/franklin-dam-and-the-greens RE: Australia - Teejay - 12-04-2019 In my personal observations of people, I have known in my life, along with public figures. I am convinced that Australian generations are on average five years younger than American ones. Below, I will give a description of both early to middle 1960s, along with early to middle 1980s cohorts, here in Australia. Regarding the early to middle 1960s cohorts, they are utterly dominated by Prophets. I don’t start seeing a sustainable number of Nomads until say after 1966 or even 1967. Even then late 1960s cohorts often are either Prophets or have a Prophet tinge to them. Indeed, I don’t feel much affinity with the late 1960s cohorts, which I do with the 1970s cohorts. Therefore; I am inclined towards either 1966 or even 1967 for our first-Generation Xer equivalent cohorts, with 1986 being the last cohort. Now to the early to middle 1980s cohorts, I see very few Civics, rather I see a lot of Nomads. I have personally known many people born as late as 1986, who are even more of a Nomad archetype than myself. Even the late 1980s cohorts are often mixed Nomad and Civic, with only the solid Civics starting to appear until the 1990s cohorts. Overall, I am arguing for a 1987 date for the first Millennial cohorts in Australia, which is the best estimate. This reflects the public attitude towards the 1980s as compared to 1990s cohorts. For example; politicians in Australia born in the 1980s (which there is a considerable number) aren’t seen as those of promise, like some born in the 1980s are seen in America, such as Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Buttigieg, Ilhan Omar, and Abdul El-Sayed. Rather it is those politicians born in the 1990s who are those of promise such as Jordon Steele-John (1994). Now to the 2000s cohorts, they are the ones which are mass mobilizing for movements such as the school climate strikes (with some of the current Artist generation, acting as ‘helpmates’). Indeed, the ‘Generation Zer’ cohorts I see as our Core Civics. It is notably that political activism by the young started to increase considerably after these cohorts started coming of age. Also, people's comments about Generation Zers who I encounter in real life, remind me a lot of what the Lost generation said about the GI's when they were coming of age. RE: Australia - Teejay - 12-04-2019 Regarding my fellow Aussies born in the early to middle 1980s, as I have said earlier are dominated by Nomads. While my experience growing up was rather stereotypical for a Nomad. However even those who grew up in a quite stable, happy families, we were raised in the same under protected way that myself and my sister (1985) were raised as. Also, our behaviors ever since adolescence has been one of associating in cliques (even as we enter middle age), having a cynical outlook on life, being incredibly politically apathetic, very hedonistic, along with focusing very much on our careers and raising families. Not to mention our cohorts have been heavily criticized ever since we were young, I know myself and my sister have long been heavily criticized It is only the fact I can pass off, as someone born in the middle 1990s and late 1980s at the most. In that, I am no longer heavily criticized by people outside my family, as I was when I was younger. Overall, I am rather atypical for my cohorts, in being left out of the cliques in adolescence and being interested in political activism (although I became disillusioned from the middle 1990s until very recently). Although, I have to say I have met some of my cohorts, who are engaged politically including online. What I notice about them is the following; firstly; they are extremely emotional about the causes they believe in, secondly, they have a ‘take no prisoners’ approach to their political views and activism and lastly, they can have authoritarian tendencies in wanting to impose authoritarianism (sometimes of the mind-numbing sort) to achieve their political aims. All up the general attitude I would describe is one of 'taking everything to the extreme' one. While Those political activists born in the 1990s and 2000s are much more rationalistic rather than emotional, also they speak considerably more "softly", which is something I admire. Anyway, this is a bit of a rant, I posted on a Facebook group about Aussies born in the early to middle 1980s, I might add including politicians not just ordinary people in our society. Also, I am comparing my cohorts to those who were born in the 1990s and 2000s. Although, I have to say I have met plenty of my cohorts, who are engaged politically. What I notice about them is the following; firstly; they are extremely passionate about the causes they believe in, secondly, they have a ‘take no prisoners’ approach to their political views and activism and lastly, they can have authoritarian tendencies in wanting to impose authoritarianism (sometimes of the mind-numbing sort) to achieve their political aims. Overall the attitude I would describe is one of 'taking everything to the extreme' one. Quote:I have to say I am disappointed with many of my cohorts (the early to middle 1980s). Particularly they don't care about the pressing issues facing this country, unless it directly affects them, their families or friends. I am a minority among my peers for giving a damn about these issues. For about maybe 15 years now, I have been very disillusioned with political activism. This is because of the sheer apathy of peers, who are late wave members of a Nomad generation. What I am describing of Aussies born in the early to middle 1980s and to a lesser extent those born in the late 1980s. Are the same observations have been made by myself and others (including William Strauss and Neil Howe) of contemporaries of Early Wave US Millennial's, particularly in Europe, however also in China, India, and South America. Given that in these region's that the last Awakening did not begin until the late 1960s and finished around 1989-90. Therefore; these observations are not surprising at the least. RE: Australia - Hintergrund - 12-11-2019 Can you name some prominent Aussies and tell us which generation they belong to? Esp. if they're cuspers. RE: Australia - Teejay - 12-11-2019 (12-11-2019, 08:08 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: Can you name some prominent Aussies and tell us which generation they belong to? Esp. if they're cuspers. I will start off by saying that generational boundaries are 'best estimates', so people say three to four years either side of a generational boundary are often mixed archetypically. In Australia that is certainly the case when it comes to the late 60's Xer cohorts and late 80's Millennial cohorts. Which I can testify from the countless people I have met in my life. Here is a list of some prominent Aussie celebrities, the years they were born in and what Australian generations they belong to. Apart from our Silent equivalents being called The Builders. Generally Australians use the names Boomer, Generation X, Millennial and Generation Z for generational names. Sam Worthington (1976) Nomad Rebel Wilson (1980) Nomad Liam Hemsworth (1990) Civic Simon Baker (1969) Nomad Rachel Griffiths (1968) Nomad Rose Byrne (1979) Nomad Hugo Weaving (1960) Prophet Isa Fisher (1976) Nomad Naomi Watts (1968) Nomad Guy Pearce (1967) Nomad Toni Collette (1972) Nomad Miranda Kerr (1983) Nomad Margot Robbie (1990) Civic Chris Hemsworth (1983) Nomad Kylie Minogue (1968) Nomad Hugh Jackman (1968) Nomad Cate Blanchett (1969) Nomad Paul Hogan (1939) Artist Heath Ledger (1979-2008) Nomad Elle MacPherson (1964) Prophet Olivia Newton-John (1948) Prophet Russell Crowe (1964) Prophet Nicole Kidman (1967) Nomad I know Australian political figures better than celebrities, so those born in the immediate post war years such as John Hewson (1946), Kim Beazley (1948) and Bob Carr (1947) are definitely a mix of both Artist and Prophet. Generally those born before 1966 are generally solid Prophets. Although John Hewson is definitely much more of an Artist than he is a Prophet. While some born in the late 1960s such as Bill Shorten (1967), Tanya Plibersek (1969) and even to a lesser degree Scott Morrison (1969) while early wave Nomads, have a Prophet tinge. RE: Australia - Hintergrund - 12-12-2019 Yeah, that's a nice list, but except for three names (Hemsworth, MacPherson, Crowe) they'd all belong to the same archetype as if they were born in the US of A. And I don't see why they should rather belong to the archetypes you mentioned instead of the other ones. Why is Hemsworth a Nomad? His role as Captain America rather fits the Hero archetype. And why are the other ones Prophets instead of Nomads? RE: Australia - David Horn - 12-12-2019 (12-12-2019, 07:53 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: Yeah, that's a nice list, but except for three names (Hemsworth, MacPherson, Crowe) they'd all belong to the same archetype as if they were born in the US of A. And I don't see why they should rather belong to the archetypes you mentioned instead of the other ones. Why is Hemsworth a Nomad? His role as Captain America rather fits the Hero archetype. And why are the other ones Prophets instead of Nomads? Hemsworth was (and maybe still is) Thor. |