Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 10-15-2018 Maybe people are getting wiser to spin, and the last one to lose it will get burned worst. Good reason exists for the honor codes at the military academies "Do not lie, do not cheat, and do not steal, and do not tolerate lying, cheating, and stealing by others". The secret is to not to do the things that might cause one to lie, cheat, or steal to protect a shady behavior. Lying recovers a piling up of lies to protect even a tiny lie. Cheating might get one an undeserved reputation for competence that one does not have and thus get one into a situation for which one is terribly unprepared. Stealing causes necessary assets to disappear. Deceiving an enemy in wartime needs the ring of truth. One might have to raid stores for necessary supplies, but one had better state what one takes to the source. Spin is lying. We see much of it from the politicians that we have, and it works less well every time that it is tried. Saudi Arabia may not be the worst actor in the world, but it is not an effective liar. 16-Oct-18 World View -- WHO considers declaring Ebola outbreak as an international em - John J. Xenakis - 10-15-2018 *** 16-Oct-18 World View -- WHO considers declaring Ebola outbreak as an international emergency This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** American CDC Ebola experts have been blocked from the outbreak zone in DR Congo **** Ebola health worker in DR Congo (CNN) It has now emerged that American Ebola experts from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have been withdrawn from the outbreak zone in North Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This will make the new outbreak more difficult to contain. There are experts on the ground from other organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO), Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF), and The Alliance for International Medical Action (Alima). The CDC experts are among the most experience Ebola experts on the planet. According to Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health: <QUOTE>"CDC has responded to nearly two dozen filovirus outbreaks in its history and has people who’ve been working on these issues for 30 years. It doesn’t make sense to have those people hundreds or thousands of miles away from where the disease is actually spreading. It would provide a lot of value to have experienced leaders at CDC who’ve been in the situation before contributing what they can to the larger effort. I think it’s an important moment to think about that."<END QUOTE> Instead of being on the ground in the outbreak zone, CDC experts are being given other assignments thousands of miles away, such as advising DRC's ministry of health in the capital city Kinshasa. News stories are providing few details about why they're blocked from the outbreak zone, except that it's related to the attack in 2010 in Benghazi, Libya, that killed US ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. The inference that we're to draw, apparently, is that Americans in the North Kivu war zone would be targets of attacks similar to those against ambassador Stevens. Stat News and CNN **** **** WHO considers declaring Ebola outbreak as an international emergency **** The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Monday that it will hold an emergency committee meeting on Wednesday in Geneva. According to a statement: "The committee will meet on October 17 in Geneva to ascertain whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern." The designation "public health emergency of international concern" refers to a pandemic that is so serious that it might spread to other countries. There are now concerns that it could soon spread to Uganda and Rwanda. WHO has resisted that designation so far in eastern DRC, but over the weekend a "second wave" of the Ebola virus was confirmed. There are now 211 registered cases of Ebola, 176 confirmed and 35 probable, with 135 deaths. The number of cases has been expanding rapidly, more than twice as fast as in September. There were six new cases over the weekend. Many new cases come out of funerals for previous victims. Even if a funeral is conducted in a secure manner, the risk for Ebola transmission is high, because viral loads are at their highest level at the time of death. The situation in North Kivu province is the worst possible scenario. There is a major ethnic war in progress, and Ebola is now spreading in the densely populated city of Beni, which has become the epicenter of the pandemic. The entire region is a war zone, and over one million people have been driven from their homes by armed rebel groups, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), fighting government troops. The fighting is preventing doctors and experts from reaching infected people, in order to educate the population and do contact tracing. Without contact tracing, there is no way to stop or slow the spread of the disease. AFP and Reuters and Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRAP) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ebola, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, North Kivu, Beni, Centers for Disease Control, CDC, Tom Inglesby, World Health Organization, WHO, Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF, Alliance for International Medical Action, Alima, J. Christopher Stevens, Benghazi, Libya, Allied Democratic Forces, ADF Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 17-Oct-18 World View -- Amazon's Jeff Bezos says America must be defended, while Goog - John J. Xenakis - 10-16-2018 *** 17-Oct-18 World View -- Amazon's Jeff Bezos says America must be defended, while Google repudiates its 'Do No Evil' policy This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Amazon's Jeff Bezos says that America must be defended **** Jeff Bezos At a time when employees of high tech companies like Google and Microsoft are adopting holier-than-thou attitudes about defending the United States of America, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said on Monday that Amazon is going to work with the Pentagon, and that other high-tech companies should do the same. He said in an interview: <QUOTE>"If big tech companies are going to turn their back on US Department of Defense, this country is going to be in trouble. We are going to continue to support the DOD and I think we should."<END QUOTE> In recent months, Google has been almost enthusiastic in its willingness to provide technology to the Chinese government and the Chinese military, while at the same time management has given in to demands that Google not supply technology needed by the US military to defend the country. Bezos acknowledged that Donald Trump is unpopular among some workers, and particularly expressed disapproval of Trump's immigration policy, but pointed out that this proves why America is still the best in the world: <QUOTE>I like this country. I know everybody is very conflicted about the current politics and so on. This country is a gem. There aren't other countries where everybody is trying to get in. I'd let them in if it were me. I like 'em, I want all of them in. But this is a great country and it does need to be defended."<END QUOTE> Amazon is in the process of bidding for a major DoD contract call "The Joint Enterprise Defense Initiative," or JEDI, a $10 billion development project that will make a cloud computing and storage platform available to all of DoD. Last week, Google issued a statement saying: "we are not bidding on the JEDI contract because first, we couldn’t be assured that it would align with our AI Principles...." This might actually be a blessing in disguise. Google has said that it will accede to China's demand that all cloud passwords for Chinese citizens and businesses will be made available to the Chinese government and military, and this would represent a possible security risk to US DoD data on Google's servers. As a Senior Software Engineer, I've worked on development of these extremely large, complex systems, and I'm aware how easy it is for bugs and systemic failure to permit data and services to be hacked. Microsoft is being pressured to move in the same direction as Google. A recent letter by employees describes Jedi as "a secretive $10 billion project with the ambition of building 'a more lethal' military force overseen by the Trump Administration," and concludes, "Microsoft, don’t bid on JEDI." However, Microsoft management has not yet acceded to these demands. Fortunately, there are still some American companies not being run by children. Amazon is expected to be the lead contender for Jedi, but Oracle and IBM are also expected to bid, and Microsoft may do so as well. Wired and BBC and TechCrunch and Medium **** **** Google repudiates its 'Don't Be Evil' conduct clause, and sides with China **** When Google was launched in 1998, it's unofficial slogan was "Don't be evil." It was a corporate principle that "you can make money without doing evil," and "Don't be evil" was part of the company's official code of conduct until this year. With no fanfare, Google removed "Don't be evil" from its code of conduct sometime between April 21 and May 4, when it simply disappeared from the Google web site. Shortly after that, in May, Google announced that would not renew its contract with DoD for Project Maven, which provides AI technology for analyzing drone footage, because its employees objected to doing any work for the American military. But in December of last year, Google announced that it would open a state of the art AI development center in Shanghai, where the most advanced AI technology would be made available to the Chinese government and the Chinese military. The biggest public scandal this year occurred when word leaked out in July that Google for almost two years had 200 programmers working on an advanced AI search engine for China called Dragonfly that would detect users who made requests that violated Chinese Communist Party (CCP) censorship rules, and would make personal identifying information about such users available to the Chinese government and Chinese military. Google has refused comment about Project Dragonfly, saying that it's an experimental system, with no current plans to deploy it. But in fact, Google's search engine chief, Ben Gomes, told an internal meeting in July that the plan was to launch the search engine as soon as possible — and to get it ready to be "brought off the shelf and quickly deployed" once approval from Beijing was received. On Monday of this week, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, an American who was born in India, defended Project Dragonfly. He said that Project Dragonfly will still be able to answer "well over 99% of the queries” put to it and that “there are many, many areas where we would provide information better than what’s available." I'm not even sure that he understood the message he was sending with that remark, but it implies that the other 1% would be subject to arrest by China's police. As China continues to prepare to launch a war against the United States, it's hard to avoid the impression that Google has already chosen the side that it wants to win that war, and it's not the United States. And somebody ought to tell Sundar Pichai that those same super-intelligent weapon systems that Google is helping the Chinese military to build will also be used against his native India. Perhaps that thought never occurred to him. And finally, Chinese employees working in America should realize how dangerous Google's policy is for them personally. During World War II, Japanese Americans were interned. After 9/11, Muslim Americans were jailed without trial. The path that Google is on will adversely affect all Chinese-Americans, and an anti-Chinese public mood could materialize overnight. Gizmodo (18-May) and Gizmodo (1-Jun) and CNBC (13-Dec-2017) and NY Times (16-Aug) and The Intercept (9-Oct) and Washington Post Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Amazon, Jeff Bezos, Joint Enterprise Defense Initiative, JEDI, Google, Project Maven, Project Dragonfly, China, Ben Gomes, Sundar Pichai Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 18-Oct-18 World View -- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov - John J. Xenakis - 10-17-2018 *** 18-Oct-18 World View -- Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Ukraine counters Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov **** Ukraine. In 2014, Russia invaded and occupied Donbas, and invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2018, Russia completed a bridge over the Kerch Strait, controlling access to the Sea of Azov. Readers who remember ancient history (2014) may recall a war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia invaded Donbas (eastern Ukraine) and is still occupying it, and then Russia invaded, occupied and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. The war in Donbas has not ended, as there have been regular clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces. These clashes have occasionally been severe enough for observers to raise concerns that Russia was planning a new offensive for Russian forces to attack and occupy the seaports at Mariupol and Berdyansk, and then continue to move west in order to create a land bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea. That hasn't happened, but many observers believe that Russia is making preparations to accomplish the same objective through a naval attack from the Sea of Azov. In the last three years, the Russians have been doing the following:
Many observers believe that these steps are all in preparation for a naval assault on Mariupol, Berdyansk, and other Ukrainian ports along the Sea of Azov, with the objective of creating a land bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea, and to taking full military control of the entire Sea of Azov. US State Dept. and RFE/RL and RFE/RL (7-Aug) **** **** Ukraine prepares to challenge Russia in the Sea of Azov **** Following years of neglect, Ukraine is hurriedly tying to reinforce its naval capabilities in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine is considering buying three Danish Standard Flex 300 patrol vessels for $117 million, and has received two Island-class Coast Guard cutters from the United States. These vessels will be upgraded and deployed in the Sea of Azov. However, this attempt to stand up an "Azov Flotilla" will not be enough to challenge Russia's overwhelming naval presence, consisting of around 50-70 Russian "coast guard" vessels. For that reason, Ukraine is also formulating a diplomatic and political strategy to challenge Russia. This would include seeking support from Nato and the European Union, and lodging a complaint against Russia at the Permanent Court of Arbitration. With both Ukraine and Russia becoming increasingly aggressive, the Sea of Asov is becoming an increasingly important flash point that could lead to a new conflict. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, both Russia and Ukraine are in a generational Crisis era. In 1932-33, millions of innocent Ukrainians – men, women, and children – starved to death as a result of the deliberate policies of the regime of Joseph Stalin. The genocidal atrocity is known as the Holodomor, which means "death by hunger." Stalin's regime seized crops and farms across Ukraine, leaving the population to starve to death. It's quite possible that Russia's president Vladimir Putin would like to find a way to repeat Stalin's achievement. Jamestown and Daily Signal and Sputnik News and Government of Ukraine and (Trans) Related Articles:
**** **** Violent school massacre in occupied Crimea kills 19 people **** CCTV image of shooter Vladislav Roslyakov on Wednesday at school. His outfit is similar to that of Columbine High School killer Eric Harris An 18-year-old Russian student, Vladislav Roslyakov, on Wednesday exploded a homemade nail bomb and then went on a shooting rampage, killing 19 others before killing himself in the school library. The mass school shooting at occurred at the Kerch Polytechnic College, in the city of Kerch in occupied Crimea. The city is located on the eastern shore of Crimea on the Black Sea near the Kerch Strait. Russian officials initially went into their usual spin and deception mode, trying to hide what happened, or put the blame on anyone but themselves. They first reported it as a gas explosion, and then said it was a terrorist bombing. Russian politicians in Crimea's parliament then tried to put the blame on Ukrainian nationalists, saying, "The entire evil inflicted on the land of Crimea is coming from the official Ukrainian authorities." But friends of the shooter said that the teenager hated the school and that he wanted revenge against his teachers. There are similarities between this school shooting and the April 20, 1999, massacre at Columbine High School, in Columbine Colorado that killed 13 people. Roslyakov was dressed in an outfit similar to that of Eric Harris, one of the killers in the Columbine massacre. Furthermore Roslyakov killed himself in the school library, just as Harris and his partner killed themselves in the school library. CBS News and Daily Mail (London) and AP KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Donbas, Crimea, Kerch Strait, Sea of Azov, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Josef Stalin, Holodomor, Vladimir Putin Kerch Polytechnic College, Vladislav Roslyakov, Columbine High School Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 19-Oct-18 World View -- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK - John J. Xenakis - 10-18-2018 *** 19-Oct-18 World View -- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK **** Brexit warning sign on road running across the Ireland-Northern Ireland border (AFP) Ever since the referendum passed on June 23, 2016, Brexit, the UK exit from the European Union, was never going to be anything but a disaster for the UK, and almost as much for the EU, and increasingly there's a search to mitigate the disaster as much as possible. A month ago, Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said: <QUOTE>"I’m a desperate optimist, and I very much hope and pray that there will be a deal between the European Union and the UK. Let me be clear, compared with today’s smooth single market, all the likely Brexit scenarios will have costs for the economy and to a lesser extent as well for the EU. The larger the impediments to trade in the new relationship, the costlier it will be. This should be fairly obvious, but it seems that sometimes it is not."<END QUOTE> Lagarde said that the IMF will issue its latest forecast for global economic growth in November, and that "clouds on the horizon have not become lighter but darker." The UK is leaving the EU on March 29, 2019. The most severe consequences for the UK economy would occur if the UK "crashed out" of the EU with no deal whatsoever. In this case, there would no longer be a "smooth, single market," no "frictionless trade" at all between the UK and EU. Instead, there would be a "hard border" between the UK and EU, which would damage tens or hundreds of thousands of individual trading relationships that for years have depended on frictionless trade. The main stumbling block in the negotiations is and always has been the problem of Northern Ireland. After Brexit, the (southern) Republic of Ireland would be in the EU, while Northern Ireland would not, but would still be in the UK. That means that there could be a frictionless border between Northern Ireland and Ireland (which everyone says they want) or a frictionless border between Northern Ireland and Britain (which the UK wants, but the EU couldn't care less about), but not both. UK politicians in London, led by prime minister Theresa May, have for months been in chaos debating this issue, with the "Remainers" wanted as close a relationship to the EU as possible, and the "Brexiteers" wanting a full and complete break. But as the weeks and months have gone by, the London fog finally seems to be clearing, well enough that we can begin to make out the shapes of what the final deal is most likely to be. Reuters and Irish Times **** **** The most likely deal: 'Extend and Pretend' **** Readers may recall what happened with Greece's financial crisis, when it was clear that Greece could not meet its debt payments, and would in fact never be able to do so. The EU and the European Central Bank came up with an "extend and pretend" policy, which lowered the interest rates and stretched out the debt payments to decades, and then pretended that by 2100 Greece would be able to repay its debts. Extend and pretend. So everyone in the EU and the UK, not counting the hardcore Brexiteers, is in favor of a two-year Brexit transition period -- lasting until December 31, 2020. This was agreed in March, and now appears to be set in stone. It's back in the news because on Wednesday, both Theresa May and the EU said they were discussing extending it for an additional year. The transition period will be pretty much the worst of all worlds. The terms will be as follows:
So the whole point of why the Brexiteers wanted Brexit was to get away from the EU regulations, EU taxes, and the ECJ. In the transition period, all of these will remain, with the additional restriction that the UK will have to obey all the regulations and pay all the money, but will have no say in changing them. That's what I meant by "the worst of all worlds." According to Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake saying the extension was merely “kicking the can further down the road and delaying, by a bit, driving off the cliff.” iNews (London) **** **** The Northern Ireland 'backstop' **** But wait! How does the transition period solve the Northern Ireland problem? Well, it doesn't, but it gives the politicians 2-3 more years to find a solution. And yet, no one that I've heard or read believes that an extra 2-3 years will solve the problem any more than the last two years have. That brings us to the "backstop." That's an "insurance policy" that the EU is insisting on. They want the UK to commit to a specific plan to preserve the frictionless border between Ireland and Northern Ireland when the transition period end. And they've already rejected every UK backstop proposal, including the delusional hope that in 2-3 years the technology will have been developed to enforce customs rules on the Irish border without requiring commercial vehicles to stop for inspection. Well, maybe in 2-3 years some technology will develop, but no one really believes that will happen. The backstop that the EU wants is that at the end of the transition period, Northern Ireland will be part of the EU customs union and single market. That means that there will be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Britain. That means that UK citizens traveling between Northern Ireland and Britain will have to go through customs, and it means that goods shipped between the two will have to be inspected. Britain's prime minister Theresa May says that this is unacceptable because it would split the sovereignty of the United Kingdom. This is still a seemingly unsurmountable obstacle to achieving any sort of deal before the UK leaves the EU on March 29. Guardian (London) and BBC and Irish Times Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Brexit, EU, UK, Theresa May, Greece, extend and pretend, Tom Brake, Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund, IMF Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 20-Oct-18 World View -- Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family - John J. Xenakis - 10-19-2018 *** 20-Oct-18 World View -- Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket **** Destroyed house after being hit by rocket on Tuesday morning in Beersheba (AP) At 3:43 am on Tuesday, a sleeping mother and father heard warning sirens, woke up their three children, and pulled them into a safe room just before a Grad rocket fell through the roof of their Beersheba home and landed in one of the second story bedrooms, almost completely destroying the structure. Hamas and Islamic Jihad on Tuesday denied that they were responsible for the missile attack, but their denials were not considered credible, since no one else has the type of Grad missile that struck the home. Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman publicly called for a powerful military response to Hamas: <QUOTE>"Before going to war, we need to exhaust all other possibilities, because when we’re sending soldiers to battle we know that some of them aren’t returning home. We’re obligated to exhaust every other way, every other option. Upon entering the Defense Ministry I said — Israel has no right, no option, no luxury to conduct wars of choice. We can conduct only wars of no choice. In the last months we made every effort, we’ve overturned every stone and at this point ‘no choice’ is behind us. We have arrived at the point where we have to land as strong as possible a blow on Hamas."<END QUOTE> Israel's Security Cabinet had convened for a midnight emergency session on Thursday morning, and many Israelis believed that they would be at war with Gaza by morning. However, there was no war. According to reports, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided that no such military attack would take place. Israel has invaded Gaza three times in the last ten years to put a stop to missile attacks, most recently in the 67 day summer war in 2014. Each of these wars has ended in a ceasefire, and than after another period of relative calm, another round of fighting begins. Generational Dynamics predicts that there will never be a resolution until there's a full-scale regional war between Jews and Arabs. I posted my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1, 2003, when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," which described the details of a two-state solution. I wrote that Generational Dynamics predicts that the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Here's what I wrote: <QUOTE>"We are now in the early stages of replaying the extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is awaiting a generational change. There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon and Yassir Arafat. These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge. The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is this: Be careful what you wish for.)"<END QUOTE> Since that time, Yassir Arafat died, and was replaced by Mahmoud Abbas, who was also a survivor of the 1948 war and remembered its horrors. Since then, Abbas has lost control of Hamas, which has been run by much younger leaders. Since 2006, there have been five wars involving Israel and Palestinians: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza; Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in 2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012 and July-August 2014. These on-and-off clashes cannot go on forever. At some point, they'll be resolved by a full-fledged generational crisis war that engulfs the region. In the meantime, there is no chance whatsoever that any sort of Israeli-Palestinian "peace process" will succeed, and that's just as true today as it was in 2003. Jerusalem Post and World Israel News and Bloomberg **** **** Israel adopts a go-slow strategy with new 'rules of the game' **** By Thursday morning, after the emergency midnight meeting of cabinet ministers, the fiery rhetoric had softened. Housing Minsiter Yoav Galant said: <QUOTE>"I can’t address the content of cabinet discussion but I can say one thing very explicitly — the rules of the game are going to change. We won’t accept more fire and [border] fence terror."<END QUOTE> However, the cabinet meeting decision not to launch a military operation was condemned by other government leaders. According to Regional Council head Gadi Yarkoni: <QUOTE>"We had every reason to deliver a serious response in a way that they would understand the message. We should have taken advantage of what happened in Beersheba to restore deterrence, but unfortunately that did not happen."<END QUOTE> I googled Gadi Yarkoni, and learned that he was born in 1967, which would put him in Israel's equivalent of Generation-X, much younger than Netanyahu, born in 1949, or Mahmoud Abbas, born in 1935, or Hamas head Khaled Mashal, born in 1956. When there's an all-out war between Jews and Palestinians, it will be launched by younger people, such as Yarkoni and a young Palestinian leader. Although no full-scale war is imminent, Israel's army has been cleared to follow more aggressive tactics. This includes a green light for troops to fire at Gazans who are farther away from the fence than previously allowed, as well a more forceful response to incendiary balloon launches. According to reports, the army will ramp up the severity of its responses gradually, but ultimately adopt a zero-tolerance policy toward rocket attacks, arson balloons and rioting along the Israeli border. Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Beersheeba, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Avigdor Lieberman, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yassir Arafat, Ariel Sharon, Mahmoud Abbas, Operation Cast Lead, Yoav Galant, Gadi Yarkoni, Khaled Mashal Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 21-Oct-18 World View -- Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separatio - John J. Xenakis - 10-20-2018 *** 21-Oct-18 World View -- Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China **** Pro-independence demonstrators shout slogans during a rally in Taipei, Taiwan, on Saturday (AP) Thousands of pro-independence demonstrators rallied in Taipei, Taiwan's capital city, on Saturday to pressure the government of president Tsai Ing-wen to be more confrontational with mainland China and to move faster towards independence. Tsai Ing-wen leads the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which was formed as a reaction to the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre in Beijing, where several thousand peacefully protesting students were brutally murdered by Chinese security forces in a huge bloodbath. They have been "pro-independence" from the beginning, but in official government positions when winning elections, they've adopted the 1992 "One China Consensus" which says that China and Taiwan are one country, but which leaves the meaning of that phrase ambiguous. However, since winning the presidential election early in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen has gone farther than previous DPP politicians by refusing to endorse the 1992 consensus, instead saying that she "respected ... the common understanding" between China and Taiwan, without saying what that means. Her refusal to endorse the 1992 consensus has triggered the usual stream of hysterical screaming threats from Chinese officials, and relations between China and Taiwan have been deteriorating steadily. The rally was organized by a new pressure group called the Formosa Alliance. The rally actually represents a split in the pro-independence movement because Tsai has been taking a relatively cautious approach to China, while the Formosa group want to take steps toward independence more quickly. In 2005, China passed the Anti-Secession Law, which orders the army to invade Taiwan if any Taiwanese official makes any move toward independence, whether by word or by deed. Taiwanese officials have said many things since 2005 that, arguably, could trigger the anti-secession law, and Saturday's independence rally adds one more. Because China's armed forces are several times bigger than Taiwan's, it's generally believed that China would easily defeat Taiwan in a war, especially if the US did not honor its commitment to mutual defense. The quick win would be achieved first by a barrage of missiles striking government and military targets, followed quickly by special forces ferried across the strait for a quick kill. However, Foreign Policy has published a detailed analysis by which Taiwan can win a war with China. The Taiwanese, Japanese and American leaders will have 30-60 days' notice of an impending invasion, because China will have to make preparations. So the Taiwanese will be prepared with booby traps, explosives, sea mines, and the Taiwanese soldiers will be far better prepared than their Chinese counterparts. China has been using money and extortion to force a number of countries and international companies to declare that Taiwan is a province of China. Since Tsai became president, five countries have ended diplomatic relations with Taiwan and begun diplomatic relations with China: Sao Tome and Principe in 2016, Panama in 2017, and the Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso and El Salvador in 2018. Only 16 countries plus the Vatican now recognise Taiwan under its formal name: the Republic of China. China has also pressured international companies, including airlines, to remove "Taiwan" from their company web sites, or replace it with "Taiwan, province of China," if the companies want to continue doing business in China. With China and the Vatican having concluded a historic agreement on the appointment of bishops in China, people in Taiwan are now concerned that the Vatican will also switch diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China. Channel News Asia and <stdurl https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/2169493/taiwan-independence-protesters-take-street-taipei "South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)"#> and Bloomberg and Foreign Policy (25-Sep) **** **** China continues massive crackdown on non-indigenous religions **** By one estimate, China’s Christian population has swelled from a few million in the early 1980s to 100 million this year – in comparison, the Communist Party has 90 million members. China this year has become increasingly bloody and violent against the four supposedly approved non-indigenous religions, Islam, Buddhism, Catholicism, and Protestantism, as I described in a recent article: "14-Oct-18 World View -- China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang" In that article, some commenters criticized me for implying that Islam and Christianity are equivalent in some way. Actually, the article in no way implies that. The point was that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) considers Islam and Christianity to be equivalent, and the same for all of the non-indigenous religions. In China's multi-millennial imperialistic history, China has always been at war or close to it -- invading neighbors to exterminate them and take their land, or planning and preparing for such an invasion, or being invaded by a neighbor, or in the midst of a massive internal civil war. China's indigenous "religions" -- Sun Tzu's Art of War, Confucianism and Daoism -- are all aimed at unifying behind the government and winning wars. Each one of the non-indigenous religions has been used at one time or another, sometimes successfully sometimes not, as a belief system to create a populist movement to overthrow a dynasty or a government. This became particularly frightening to the CCP on June 4, 1989, when tens thousands of students from all over China traveled to Beijing and rallied in Tiananmen Square, causing the CCP to vicious murder thousands of them, creating a bloodbath. This show of mass protest showed the Chinese leadership how easy it would be for them to be toppled by a mass movement, and so they've been extremely vicious towards all non-indigenous religions. And then when the Soviet Communist Party collapsed in 1991, they went into full-scale panic. So to the CCP, Islam and Christianity are exactly the same, as are all the non-indigenous religions. And they all must be subject to "Sinicization," which means that they must conform to Chinese government policies or face jailing or destruction. In April of this year, China's government issued its Sinicization decree, called by the Orwellian name "China's Policies and Practices on Protecting Freedom of Religious Belief." There are six areas of Sinicization: intensifying political identification, integrating religion into Chinese culture, establishing theological thought with Chinese characteristics, setting up a management system for the church with Chinese characteristics, exploring liturgical expression with Chinese elements, and using Chinese aesthetics in church buildings, pictures and sacred music. According to the decree: <QUOTE>"It also means guiding religious groups to support the leadership of the CPC and the socialist system; uphold and follow the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics; develop religions in the Chinese context; embrace core socialist values; carry forward China’s fine traditions; integrate religious teachings and rules with Chinese culture; abide by state laws and regulations, and accept state administration in accordance with the law."<END QUOTE> This paragraph gives complete administrative control of the religion to the CCP, and permits the CCP to monitor all religious activities. The crackdown has been particularly brutal this year. China's destruction of the Golden Lampstand evangelical mega-church, which reportedly had a congregation of 50,000 people (AP) Several months ago, China's storm troopers demolished a massive evangelical church using bulldozers and dynamite. The Jindengtai ("Golden Lampstand") mega-church, which reportedly had a congregation of 50,000 people, was demolished. Last month, the Zion Protestant Church in Beijing was banned because the administration refused to install closed-circuit television cameras that the CCP could use to monitor all activity. In other cases, Chinese policies have stormed into people's homes and replaced the pictures of Jesus Christ and other religious symbols with pictures of Xi Jinping, with the implication that people should be worshipping Xi Jinping as God. Any person who violates the government's rules can be tortured or jailed or sent to reeducation camps. The most extreme example of this so far is Xinjiang province, where a million ethnic Uighurs are being tortured, raped and beaten in reeducation camps. I was listening to a BBC report a couple of days ago, interviewing someone who had a number of Uighur friends living in Xinjiang province. He rattled off a list of the offenses that could get you sent to a reeducation camp, things like not saying "hello" to a Chinese official when you pass him in the street. He also mentioned "giving up smoking." It turns out that if you give up smoking, then it means that you're planning to become an extremist and terrorist, so you have to be sent to a reeducation camp. State Council Information Office - Protecting religious freedom and Deutche Welle (19-Jan-2018) and Reuters and China Today **** **** China's deal with the Vatican stirs concerns in Taiwan **** Another section of the sinicization document says the following: <QUOTE>"Religious groups and religious affairs are not subject to control by foreign countries.... This principle is a historic choice made by Chinese religious believers in the Chinese people’s struggle for national independence and social progress, as Catholicism and Protestantism, which were known as foreign religions in China, had long been controlled and utilized by colonialists and imperialists."<END QUOTE> This rule has been particularly applied to Catholics, since Catholics have allegiance to the Pope in the Vatican, and the Pope is presumably either a colonialist or imperialist. There are about twelve million Catholics in China. Seven million of them belong to the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, which is actually a CCP political organization, and is "Catholic" in name only. The other five million belong to "underground" Catholic churches, which are barely tolerated by the government, but which retain allegiance to the Pope. In the last few decades, many Catholic priests in China have gone to jail for years and been tortured for their refusal to reject their vows and the guidance of the Pope. So many of these people feel betrayed by the Pope, because the Vatican last month agreed to a "compromise" where the Vatican recognized seven bishops who were ordained by the CCP without the approval of the Vatican. There was another part to the deal, where China promised to accept some bishops in the "underground" church who had been ordained by the Vatican, but China has so far not fulfilled that promise. It appears that the Vatican has completely given in to China in order to gain approval from China. This has raised concerns in Taiwan that the Vatican will go further in giving in to China by cutting ties with Taiwan. Taiwan has about 300,000 Catholics, and Taiwan, unlike China, has complete freedom of religion. The Taiwanese government apparently does not fear that the Catholics will form a secret society whose purpose is to overthrow the government, which is what has happened many times in China. If, as many fear, the Vatican withdraws its recognition from Taiwan, then the Pope will lose all credibility with the Catholics in Taiwan, and will be held in contempt by millions of people in "underground" Catholic churches in China. SCMP (22-Sep) and Diplomat (21-Sep) and South China Morning Post (30-Mar) and Free Catholics in China and South China Morning Post Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen Democratic Progressive Party, DPP, China, Tiananmen Square Massacre, Formosa Alliance, Sinicization, Islam, Buddhism, Catholicism, Protestantism, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Golden Lampstand evangelical mega-church, Zion Protestant Church, Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Ru - John J. Xenakis - 10-22-2018 *** 23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Russia This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Trump cancels nuclear proliferation treaty with Russia **** China's mobile DF-41 missile would be illegal under the INF treaty Donald Trump has announced that the US will will leave the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF), that the US signed with Russia in 1987, and has been called a historic arms control treaty. The treaty was signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. It was a response to a growing missile standoff in Europe, where Soviet and American nuclear short range and cruise missiles were pointed at each other. The treaty ended a dangerous standoff. Both Barack Obama and Donald Trump have accused the Russians of violating the treaty in the last decade with new developments of cruise missiles. According to Trump on Saturday: <QUOTE>"Russia has violated the agreement. They’ve been violating it for many years and I don’t know why President Obama didn’t negotiate or pull out. We’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and do weapons and we’re not allowed to. We’re the ones that have stayed in the agreement and we’ve honored the agreement but Russia has not unfortunately honored the agreement so we’re going to terminate the agreement, we’re going to pull out. ... Unless Russia comes to us and China comes to us and they all come to us and they say, ‘Let’s all of us get smart and let’s none of us develop those weapons,’ but if Russia’s doing it and if China’s doing it and we’re adhering to the agreement, that’s unacceptable. So we have a tremendous amount of money to play with with our military."<END QUOTE> Russia has accused the US of also violating the agreement pointing, for example, to unmanned drones that can serve the same functions as cruise missiles. This may well be a valid argument, but what it shows is that, after 30 years, the treaty is out of date anyway. Russian senior lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev said on Sunday said that Trump's announcement means that "Mankind is facing full chaos in the nuclear weapons sphere." Leonid Slutsky, who leads the Foreign Affairs Committee said that Trump is placing “a huge mine under the whole disarmament process on the planet.” The real risk will be borne by European allies, according to Kingston Reif, director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the Arms Control Association, a think tank. “This removes all constraints on the production and fielding of Russia’s illegal missile, thereby increasing the threat to our allies in range of the missiles, leaves the United States holding the bag for the treaty’s demise, and creates another source of division between us.” Mikhail Gorbachev said that the announcement "is not the work of a great mind." He added: <QUOTE>"Do they really not understand in Washington what this can lead to? [The decision] will undermine all the efforts that were made by the leaders of the USSR and the United States themselves to achieve nuclear disarmament. [A]ll agreements aimed at nuclear disarmament and the limitation of nuclear weapons must be preserved for the sake of life on Earth."<END QUOTE> Russia Today and Time and CNBC and AP **** **** China warns that the decision will 'cause many negative effects' **** Since the announcement, it's become increasingly clear that the real target of Trump's announcement is China. According to a CIA analysis in 1983: <QUOTE>"China's position on arms control is dictated by its interests in: 1) maintaining a free hand to expand its nuclear deterrent capabilities; 2) exercising some influence over US-USSR strategic arms talks that could adversely affect Chinese security; and 3) enhancing China's status and influence in the Third World. The Chinese also have sought to promote their commercial interests through the sale of conventional arms."<END QUOTE> China has indeed taken advantage of its refusal to join any arms control agreement. As we've been reporting for years, China has developed one nuclear ballistic weapons system after another with no purpose except to attack American cities, American bases, and American aircraft carriers. It really doesn't make sense that an aggressive, imperial, militaristic China should have no restrictions developing nuclear missiles, when other countries are bound by arms control treaties. In particular, China has had a free hand developing and deploying intermediate-range nuclear missiles of its own, including missiles designed to take out US aircraft carriers patrolling the waters of the Western Pacific. China is estimated to have 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles in its inventory, almost all of which would be in violation of this treaty. According to Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor at the International Christian University in Tokyo: <QUOTE>"China has not signed the agreement and has been producing mid-range missiles and so-called carrier killers to asymmetrically increase the costs of an American-led naval containment strategy. The US is likely withdrawing to send a message to Beijing that the US can and will produce mid-range nuclear weapons that can erode away China’s existing asymmetric advantage."<END QUOTE> China's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the following: <QUOTE>"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is an important treaty on arms control and disarmament signed by the United States and the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. It has played an important role in easing the international relations, moving forward the nuclear disarmament process and safeguarding global strategic balance and stability. It is still highly relevant today. Unilaterally withdrawing from the treaty will cause many negative effects. What needs to be stressed is that making an issue out of China on withdrawing from the treaty is totally wrong. We hope that the relevant country can cherish the hard-won outcomes achieved over the years, prudently and properly handle the issues related to the treaty through dialogue and consultation and think twice before withdrawing from the treaty."<END QUOTE> So China wants the US and Russia to be bound by the treaty, while China is not. No surprise there. However, when she talks about causing "many negative effects," we might ask, What is she referring to? Whenever I talk about various policies, everything from tariffs and trade to canceling a North Korea meeting, that completely baffle the mainstream media, I always come back to the same point. Trump is aware of the Generational Dynamics analysis and predictions that China is preparing for full-scale war with the United States. Trump is aware of this because he was educated by Steve Bannon, who is an expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics. So as I always point out, Trump's policies, whether trade or arms control, have the objective of trying to end China's plans for a preemptive attack on the United States. And as I always point out, a war with China is 100% certain, but I'm not going to criticize Trump for trying to prevent a world war. But all of these policies are dual-edged. Yes, these policies might cause the Chinese to postpone their plans, but it might also cause them to bring these plans forward. Those might be the "negative side effects" that China's Foreign Ministry is talking about. Generational crisis wars are not based on rationality and reason. They're based on desperation and panic. China has numerous domestic problems -- increasing numbers of "mass incidents," a highly-imbalanced economy being centrally managed but poorly managed, numerous bubbles and financial distortions -- and a restive population that, along with Winnie the Pooh, strikes terror in the hearts of the Communist central committee. These are more than enough to cause desperation and anxiety, and could trigger a military panic at any time. CIA (1-Sep-1983) and Bloomberg and Russia Today and China's Foreign Ministry Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Soviet Union, USSR, Ronald Reagan, Mikhail Gorbachev, Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty, INF, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Konstantin Kosachev, Leonid Slutsky, Kingston Reif, Stephen Nagy Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 24-Oct-18 World View -- European Commission rebukes Italy, after blatant budget rules - John J. Xenakis - 10-23-2018 *** 24-Oct-18 World View -- European Commission rebukes Italy, after blatant budget rules violation This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** European Commission rebukes Italy, after blatant budget rules violation **** A horse-drawn carriage passes a branch of Banca Monte dei Paschi bank in Rome. It's like writing a letter to your bank and saying that you'll be making only half your mortgage payments for three years, and that they should understand because you need the money. Your bank would have to reject your statement forcefully. On Monday, Italy's Economy Minister Giovanni Tria sent a letter to the European Commission (EC), clearly saying that Italy intended to violate EC budget rules from 2019-22: <QUOTE>"As regards the path of the structural balance, the Italian Government is aware of having chosen a budgetary policy approach that is not in line with the application rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. It was a difficult but necessary decision ally of the persistent delay in recovering pre-crisis GDP levels and the dramatic economic conditions in which the most disadvantaged strata of the Italian society are found. The Government also intends to implement the qualifying parts of the economic and social program on which it has obtained the confidence of the Italian Parliament. The Update Note of the Economic and Financial Document, and the attached Parliament Report, clarify that the Government plans to deviate from the structural adjustment decrease in 2019 but does not intend to further expand the structural deficit in the following two years and undertakes to return the structural balance towards the medium-term objective starting from 2022. If it were to return to pre-crisis level before the forecast, the Government intends to anticipate the return path."<END QUOTE> This is a direct, and possibly unprecedented challenge by an EU member state to the European Commission, and it required an unprecedented response. The EC firmly rejected Italy's proposed 2019 budget, and demanded a compliant budget within three weeks. Readers may recall that when Italy held nationwide elections in March, the elections failed to produce a majority party. Two particularly bitter rivals were the left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S) that got 32% of the vote, and the right-wing La Lega (The League) that got 17% of the vote. Incredibly, these two parties got together and formed a governing coalition. They're far apart on many issues, but they do share similar attitudes on three issues: a nationalistic anti-euro attitude, a xenophobic anti-immigrant attitude, and a complete lack of fiscal discipline. Much to everyone's surprise, they formed a governing coalition based on these three principles. This new governing coalition announced a list of policy proposals, including a completely delusional list of economic proposals. Italian debt stands at around €2.3 trillion ($2.7 trillion), or 133% of gross domestic product (GDP), the worst in Europe. The new government does have a way of reducing the debt: spend a lot more money, and drastically reduce taxes. (As I wrote at the time, I wish I could tell you that this is a joke, but it isn't.) Specifically, the government would like to do the following right away:
So now the time has come for Italy to submit a 2019 budget to the EC to fulfill these delusional campaign promises, and the budget far exceeds EC rules, as well as Italy's previous commitment to fiscal discipline. What we can say at this point with certainty is that, with the EU already buried in problems from Brexit and immigrants, Italy's budget is sure to create an additional huge new fracas. It seems pretty clear that Italy's government is out of control fiscally, and that they will be unable to stop themselves from going into more and more debt. But as the saying goes: If something can't go on forever, then it won't. According to an analysis by Silvia Ardagna of Goldman Sachs, Italy will not become fiscally responsible until some event forces them to be: <QUOTE>"Financial market participants understand there is value in correctly pricing not just the 'end game,' but also the path to that 'end game' and the risks around it. From this perspective, our view is that market tensions would need to intensify in order to exert sufficient pressure on the Italian political system to trigger a change in the policy path and the political rhetoric around it. On that basis — and even if Italy does ultimately remain part of the Euro area — the market situation may need to get worse before it gets better."<END QUOTE> Some people are speculating that the event will be "Italexit," with Italy leaving the euro currency and possibly the European Union. However, prime minister Giuseppe Conte said, "I can assure that this executive will not accompany this country, Italy, out of Europe. We feel very comfortable, we feel at home in Europe and we think that the euro is our currency and will be our currency, the currency of my kid, he’s 11 years old, and the currency of my grandchildren." Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said that "this is an unprecedented situation, and the decision should not be surprising to anyone as the Italian government’s draft budget represents a clear and intentional deviation from the commitments made by Italy last July." Italy's Economic Ministry (PDF) and European Commission and Business Insider and Politico (EU) **** **** Greece's elderly still face possible pension cuts in January **** Greece's elderly may not face pension cuts in January after all. The planned pension cuts are part of the austerity program that the EU and the ECB imposed on Greece in return for years of bailouts to prevent the country from becoming totally bankrupt. The pension cuts are necessary to increase the sustainability of Greece's social security system, but apparently most members of the European Commission are willing to put this measure on hold. The final decision on whether to cancel the pension cuts will be made on December 3, but in fact the pension cuts may be made anyway, since Germany opposes canceling them. I tell this little story to remind readers that even though Greece's financial crisis has been out of the news for a while, it has not been resolved, and there could be a renewal of the crisis at any time. Greece had to be bailed out in 2010 because the country was essentially bankrupt. Greece was borrowing and spending way beyond its capability to repay throughout the 2000s decade. According to one analyst, <QUOTE>"The history of [Greece's National Statistical Service (NSSG)] reveals that its chief officer (general secretary) was replaced whenever a new party was elected to power. The main objective behind this practice was to control the flow of information; in this respect, the personal or political allegiance of the chief officer was the most crucial factor for the appointment."<END QUOTE> We can also say with certainty that if Italy goes on the spending binge, the country will be deep trouble. I don't know why it's so hard for people to understand that it's fun to borrow and spend money, but it's extremely painful when you have to pay it back. In order to fund its spending binge, Italy will have to borrow money, and Italy will do that by selling government bonds. Moody's last week downgraded Italy's bond rating to Baa3, which is the lowest possible rating that they can have without becoming "junk bonds." In fact, a lot of people breathed a sigh of relief because the downgrade was anticipated, and it was feared that it would be to junk status. Each time a bond's rating goes down, the value of the bond goes down, and the yield goes up. The yield is the interest rate that the government has to pay to investors who buy the bonds. So during Greece's financial crisis, the yield on Greek bonds went to 5%, to 7%, to 20% to 30% to 40%, and even more. Holders of Greek bonds eventually had to take a 75% "haircut" -- which means that they lost 75% of their entire investments. This hasn't happened to Italy yet. Italy's ten-year bond yields have gone from 2% at the beginning of the year to about 3.5% recently. If Italy's spending binge continues, then the yields will increase to 5%, 7%, 10%, and so forth, and Italy's debt will become unsustainable. Even worse, many other banks in Europe have purchased Italian bonds. About 20% of Italy's government bonds are held in other eurozone countries. If yields go up and values go down, then these banks will also be in trouble. That's called "contagion," Dear Reader, and the fear of contagion will cause the European Commission to be very critical of Italy's 2019 budget. "It is tempting to try to cure debt with more debt, but at some point the debt [becomes] too heavy and at the end of the day, you end up having no freedom at all," Valdis Dombrovskis, vice president of the European Commission, said during a press conference on Tuesday. Kathimerini (Athens) and Kathimerini and CNN and CNBC Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Commission, Italy, Giovanni Tria, Five-Star Movement, M5S, Luigi Di Maio, La Lega, The (Northern) League, Matteo Salvini. Giuseppe Conte, Greece, Silvia Ardagna, Italexit, Pierre Moscovici Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 25-Oct-18 World View -- Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment su - John J. Xenakis - 10-24-2018 *** 25-Oct-18 World View -- Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis **** Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan meets Saudi King Salman (MBS's father) on Tuesday in Riyadh (AFP) The bizarre story of the gruesome death of Saudi-born Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Istanbul, Turkey, seems to be settling down in the last couple of days, largely because Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has so far refused to accuse Saudi's crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) of being personally involved. Now, MBS is saying that it was "a heinous crime that cannot be justified" and that "those behind this crime will be held accountable... in the end justice will prevail." It may be that Erdogan is holding back some evidence for use as leverage against MBS at some future time. MBS has been holding a three-day conference called the Future Investment Initiative, whose purpose is to invite investments from countries around the world. Thanks to the Khashoggi scandal, many world leaders are boycotting the conference, although many of those have sent high-level representatives in their place. Reports are that the conference is going well for MBS, despite the boycott. However, one national leader did attend the conference: Pakistan's new prime minister Imran Khan. Khan described Khashoggi's death as “sad beyond belief”, and indicated that he did not consider credible the latest official Saudi account of what happened: <QUOTE>"What happened in Turkey was just shocking. What should I say? It shocked all of us. The Saudi government will have to come up with an answer... We wait for whatever the Saudi explanation is. We hope there is an explanation that satisfies people and those responsible are punished."<END QUOTE> However, Khan has described his situation as "desperate," and that he is is attending the conference because of Pakistan's deep debt crisis: <QUOTE>"The reason I feel I have to avail myself of this opportunity [to speak to the Saudi leadership] is because in a country of 210 million people right now we have the worst debt crisis in our history. Unless we get loans from friendly countries or the IMF [the International Monetary Fund] we actually won’t have in another two or three months enough foreign exchange to service our debts or to pay for our imports. So we’re desperate at the moment."<END QUOTE> Khan had previously visited Saudi Arabia in July to try to get aid, but came away empty handed. However, Khashoggi's death has changed things, and the Saudis are "desperate" as well, needing support from someone like Imran Khan. So Khan was rewarded for attending. MBS is providing $6 billion in aid to Pakistan, $3 billion in foreign currency support and another $3 billion in loans. Another issue is Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen. In the past, Pakistan has refused to provide military support for the war, but now it may turn out that Khan had to promise something to MBS in return for the $6 billion in aid. So it's interesting that Khashoggi's murder has provided the opportunity for all sorts of extortion and blackmail among the countries in the Mideast and Asia. BBC and CNN and Middle East Eye **** **** Imran Khan considers the options in asking the IMF for a loan **** When Imran Khan took office as prime minister in August, Pakistan had only enough foreign reserves to pay for imports for two months. Since then, Pakistan's "all-weather friend" China has loaned Pakistan enough additional money so that they can pay for imports into December. Now the $6 billion in aid from Saudi Arabia should give Khan several months' more breathing room. Khan, a Pashtun born in 1952, is extremely popular and charismatic. He was one of Pakistan's greatest cricket players of all time. In the 1990s, he was voted as the "Sexiest Man of The Year" by the Australia Magazine Oz. He's anti-American, has promised to distance Pakistan from the United States. He's been particularly critical of previous governments for borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and having to accept their austerity rules in return. Now that Khan is prime minister, all his previous silver-tongued promises are ignored. Pakistan has received over a dozen IMF programs in the last 30 years, and now he says he's going to ask for another one. Pakistan formally applied for IMF assistance early in October. Pakistan is about $90 billion in debt, with $19 of that owed to China, mainly because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China needs CPEC as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in order to have a cheap way to transfer commercial and military goods and people between China and the Indian Ocean. As usual, the terms are nothing but a debt trap for Pakistan. China lends the money to Pakistan. Pakistan must use to purchase goods and services from China, and to pay the salaries of the workers on the project, almost all of whom will be Chinese. So, as usual, Pakistan will have to repay the loan twice, once to pay for Chinese goods, services and salaries, and once to repay the loan. So there's a lot of bad dealing going on here. Saudi Arabia is providing $6 billion in aid to Pakistan, but a lot of that money will go, in one way or another, to China in debt repayments. China would like Pakistan to borrow from the IMF. Since most of the IMF's money comes from the US taxpayer, tht means that the US taxpayer will be paying for the CPEC project. That's why US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said that the administration will oppose any IMF loan to Pakistan, and said, "There's no rationale for IMF tax dollars — and associated with that, American dollars that are part of the IMF funding — for those to go to bail out Chinese bondholders or China itself." China would love having the US pay for Pakistan's debts. According to China's foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said, "As a member of the IMF, China supports the organization in making an objective evaluation of Pakistan based on professionalism and earnestly helping it properly address the current difficulty." State Dept. spokesman Heather Nauert said: <QUOTE>"Pakistan has formally requested assistance from the International Monetary Fund. In all cases, we examine that closely from all angles of it, including Pakistan’s debt position, in evaluating any type of loan program. ... I think part of the reason that Pakistan found itself in this situation is Chinese debt and the fact that there is debt that governments have incurred that they maybe thought wouldn’t be so tough to bail themselves out of, but has become increasingly tough."<END QUOTE> IMF director Christine Lagarde has said that any IMF loan to Pakistan would need to determine the debt sustainability of the country by having "a complete understanding and absolute transparency about the nature, size and terms" of its debt, both public and private, and including the details about the relationship between Pakistan and China. However, all the information about Pakistan's Chinese debt is secret, and even the State Bank of Pakistan is not privy to it. China has already signaled that the secrecy should not be breached. China welcomes IMF loans to Pakistan, but they must not affect economic cooperation between China and Pakistan. Dawn (Pakistan) and Daily O (India) and CNBC (31-Jul) and Dawn and Committee For The Abolition Of Illegitimate Debt and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Saudi Arabia, King Salman, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Jamal Khashoggi, Yemen, China, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Christine Lagarde, Mike Pompeo, Heather Nauert Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 26-Oct-18 World View -- Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contenti - John J. Xenakis - 10-25-2018 *** 26-Oct-18 World View -- Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Post-war speeches by Churchill and Kennan defined 'containment' policy for Soviet Union **** President Harry Truman and Winston Churchill in Fulton, Missouri, in 1946 On October 4, VP Mike Pence gave a speech on US policy towards China. Since then, the speech has taken on a great deal of importance, and it's being compared to speeches by Western officials after World War II to "contain" the Soviet Union. On March 3, 1946, Winston Churchill gave a speech he called "The Sinews of Peace." It contained the following well-remembered excerpts: <QUOTE>"From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the Continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in many cases, increasing measure of control from Moscow. Athens alone-Greece with its immortal glories-is free to decide its future at an election under British, American and French observation. The Russian-dominated Polish Government has been encouraged to make enormous and wrongful inroads upon Germany, and mass expulsions of millions of Germans on a scale grievous and undreamed-of are now taking place. The Communist parties, which were very small in all these Eastern States of Europe, have been raised to pre-eminence and power far beyond their numbers and are seeking everywhere to obtain totalitarian control. Police governments are prevailing in nearly every case, and so far, except in Czechoslovakia, there is no true democracy. ... However, in a great number of countries, far from the Russian frontiers and throughout the world, Communist fifth columns are established and work in complete unity and absolute obedience to the directions they receive from the Communist centre. Except in the British Commonwealth and in the United States where Communism is in its infancy, the Communist parties or fifth columns constitute a growing challenge and peril to Christian civilisation. These are sombre facts for anyone to have to recite on the morrow of a victory gained by so much splendid comradeship in arms and in the cause of freedom and democracy; but we should be most unwise not to face them squarely while time remains."<END QUOTE> On February 22, 1946, America's ambassador to Moscow George Kennan sent a "Long Telegram," 8,000 words long, to the US State Department, describing his recommended policy towards the Soviet Union. The text was made public in a 1947 article in Foreign Affairs magazine as "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," by "X" (no relation to me). Kennan described the ideology of the Soviet Union, and by changing a few words, the same description would apply to China today. He described the history of Marxist ideology and how it led to the Bolshevik revolution. "[T]he capitalist system of production is a nefarious one which inevitable leads to the exploitation of the working class by the capital-owning class; ... capitalism contains the seeds of its own destruction; ... imperialism, the final phase of capitalism, leads directly to war and revolution." However: <QUOTE>"Now it must be noted that through all the years of preparation for revolution, the attention of these men, as indeed of Marx himself, had been centered less on the future form which Socialism would take than on the necessary overthrow of rival power which, in their view, had to precede the introduction of Socialism. Their views, therefore, on the positive program to be put into effect, once power was attained, were for the most part nebulous, visionary and impractical, beyond the nationalization of industry and the expropriation of large private capital holdings there was no agreed program. ... Let it be stressed again that subjectively these men probably did not seek absolutism for its own sake. They doubtless believed -- and found it easy to believe -- that they alone knew what was good for society and that they would accomplish that good once their power was secure and unchallengeable. But in seeking that security of their own rule they were prepared to recognize no restrictions, either of God or man, on the character of their methods. And until such time as that security might be achieved, they placed far down on their scale of operational priorities the comforts and happiness of the peoples entrusted to their care. As things stand today, the rulers can no longer dream of parting with these organs of suppression. The quest for absolute power, pursued now for nearly three decades with a ruthlessness unparalleled (in scope at least) in modern times, has again produced internally, as it did externally, its own reaction. The excesses of the police apparatus have fanned the potential opposition to the regime into something far greater and more dangerous than it could have been before those excesses began."<END QUOTE> So Kennan is saying that once these people have won the civil war and created their Socialist paradises, they turn into cruel, ruthless despots that retain power by any means possible. Kennan's description is so well written, and sounds so familiar, because applies to so many countries today. Of course we can see it in Venezuela, but we've also seen it in non-Socialist Paradise countries, including Cameroon, Burundi, Iran and Cambodia. This is a statement of the finding of Generational Dynamics that whenever any country experiences an ethnic civil war which is also a generational crisis war, then in the aftermath, the winning ethnic group oppresses the losing ethnic group, using torture, beatings, rape and slaughter to keep the other ethnic group in line. It also applies to all the other Communist countries that were formed during and after World War II. Kennan, writing in 1946, says that the Soviet leaders are still struggling to complete the 1917 Revolution: <QUOTE>"As things stand today, the rulers can no longer dream of parting with these organs of suppression. The quest for absolute power, pursued now for nearly three decades with a ruthlessness unparalleled (in scope at least) in modern times, has again produced internally, as it did externally, its own reaction. The excesses of the police apparatus have fanned the potential opposition to the regime into something far greater and more dangerous than it could have been before those excesses began. But least of all can the rulers dispense with the fiction by which the maintenance of dictatorial power has been defended. For this fiction has been canonized in Soviet philosophy by the excesses already committed in its name; and it is now anchored in the Soviet structure of thought by bonds far greater than those of mere ideology."<END QUOTE> Kennan says that this dictatorial power, with all its oppression and atrocities, is so ingrained in the Kremlin's ideology that they believe they have to use force to spread the same ideology to other countries. In 1946, this observation was already to clear to many people, as described in Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech. In response, Kennan describes his policy of containment: <QUOTE>"In these circumstances it is clear that the main element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union must be that of long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies. ... In the light of the above, it will be clearly seen that the Soviet pressure against the free institutions of the western world is something that can be contained by the adroit and vigilant application of counter-force at a series of constantly shifting geographical and political points, corresponding to the shifts and maneuvers of Soviet policy, but which cannot be charmed or talked out of existence."<END QUOTE> Kennan went on to describe details of how the Soviet Union could be contained. Kennan's "Long Telegraph" had a huge impact on Washington policy, and was debated for years. Winston Churchill (5-March-1946) and History Guide - George Kennan (22-Feb-1946) **** **** Mike Pence's China 'containment' speech signals more contentious US-China relations **** VP Mike Pence's October 4 speech gives a scathing criticism of China's behavior. Pence's speech is being described as a "containment" speech, like those of Churchill and Kennan, but directed at China. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's important to remember that there's a big difference. In 1946, WW II had just ended, and the US, Russia and China were all war-weary, in a generational Recovery era, with absolutely no desire to fight another war. There was a war in Korea in which all three countries fought, but that war was fought so half-heartedly that it ended in a ceasefire, with no conclusion. Technically, the Korean War has never ended. But today, we're all in a generation Crisis era, with xenophobia and nationalism at a peak in all three countries. If there were a new Korean war today -- and it's a definite possibility -- then it would also certainly spread to a wider war and a world war. Pence says that Donald Trump's administration has adopted "a new approach to China, ... grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect for sovereignty." Pence reminded the Chinese that America has always supported China, during the so-called "Century of Humiliation" and World War II, and in the decades after World War II, when "America ensured that China became a charter member of the United Nations, and a great shaper of the post-war world." America has opened its markets to China, and "American universities began training a new generation of Chinese engineers, business leaders, scholars, and officials." Pence said that "After the fall of the Soviet Union, we assumed that a free China was inevitable." As I've written many times, China's reaction to the fall of the collapse of the Soviet Communist Party was not to emulate it, but to become paranoid about it, doubling down on violence and atrocities, for fear that the same thing would happen to the Chinese Communist Party. So today, says Pence, "The dream of freedom remains distant for the Chinese people" Pence went through a list of Chinese policies that have harmed the Chinese people.
Pence went on to describe American's responses to these Chinese actions, including strengthening the military and implementing reciprocal tariffs. In the view of many Chinese, Pence's speech indicates that the United States has finally dropped its hypocritical mask and shown its true colors, which is to contain China’s rise just like it did to the Soviet Union at the beginning of the Cold War, and that the United States and China are on an irreversible course of conflict in the coming years. White House and Diplomat Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Harry Truman, Winston Churchill, Soviet Union, Iron Curtain, George Kennan, containment, Mike Pence, China Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 27-Oct-18 World View -- China, facing Trump's trade challenge, appears to mend ties w - John J. Xenakis - 10-26-2018 *** 27-Oct-18 World View -- China, facing Trump's trade challenge, appears to mend ties with Japan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China, facing Trump's trade challenge, appears to mend ties with Japan **** Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping (Kyodo News) There have been numerous reports in the last three months that, with the Trump administration imposing reciprocal tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese exports to the US, China has been scrambling to find new markets for its exports. One of those new markets appears to be Japan. As Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe visited China's capital city Beijing on Friday, the two countries signed several deals, and declare a new era of cooperation between the two countries. China’s President Xi Jinping on Friday rolled out the red carpet for Abe, and said: <QUOTE>"Our relationship has encountered a lot of obstacles. It was not a smooth ride. But with our joint effort, the relationship has become more normalized. A healthy relationship between China and Japan serves the basic interests of both countries."<END QUOTE> Abe responded by saying that he hoped his trip would elevate the China-Japan relationship from competition to cooperation. "China and Japan are neighbors and partners, and we will not be a threat to each other." One of the deals was a currency swap deal. Under the deal, the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan will be able to exchange up to 3.4 trillion yen for 200 billion yuan (about $29 billion) and vice versa over the next three years – a design that will help to ensure financial stability and facilitate financial ties, and allow commercial trade involving the two currencies without needing to go through the US dollar as an intermediary. The sides also signed about 50 agreements on boosting cooperation in third-party countries, while companies agreed more than 500 business deals. The third-party country deals are said to be cooperative infrastructure projects related to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The two sides also agreed to open a hotline “as soon as possible” to prevent accidental clashes at sea and in the air in the East China Sea, where Chinese ships have been harassing Japanese ships near the Senkaku Islands. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Japan Today and South China Morning Post and Deutsche Welle **** **** China and Japan's 'marriage of convenience' limited by bitter history **** China and Japan have a long, bitter history going back centuries. In recent times, the Sino-Japanese war (1894-95) was a major humiliation for China, which was forced to cede Taiwan to Japan as a colony. Even more recently, in December 1937 Imperial Japanese troops in China perpetrated the Nanjing (Nanking) Massacre. This event, along with the Japanese army's use of Korean and Chinese women as "comfort women" during World War II. Japanese troops did not leave China until they were defeated by the Americans at the end of World War II. During the last ten years, Chinese ships have been constantly harrassing Japanese ships around the Senkaku Islands. These islands, in the East China Sea, are governed by Japan. Like many places belonging to other countries across Asia, China is threatening to annex them by force. However, this would trigger a war with the US under a Japan-US mutual defense treaty. China has its own concerns about Japan. Under Shinzo Abe, Japan has all but abandoned its defense-only policy adopted after World War II, and been strengthening its military for the first time in decades, which China sees as a threat. The hatred that many Chinese people viscerally feel for the Japanese runs deep. There have been frequent anti-Japan protests in China. One of the biggest occurred in 2012, when more than 70,000 Chinese staged rallies Saturday in at least 28 cities to demand that Japan surrender the Senkaku islands to China. The largest demonstration, in Qingdao, Shandong Province, attracted as many as 30,000 people and evolved into rioting as protestors torched as many as 10 Japanese enterprises, including a Panasonic factory. The protests and violence appeared to have the tacit approval of China's government. The current rapprochement between China and Japan may be a marriage of convenience, but the core issues separating the countries runs deep. Generational Dynamics predicts that Japan and China will fight a new generational crisis war as part of the Clash of Civilizations world war that will pit the US, India, Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Deutsche Welle and National Interest and BBC and Diplomat Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, China, Xi Jinping, Senkaku Islands, Sino-Japanese war, Taiwan, Nanjing Massacre, Nanking Massacre Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 28-Oct-18 World View -- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solut - John J. Xenakis - 10-27-2018 *** 28-Oct-18 World View -- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Remembering previous Syria 'peace conferences' and 'peace plans' **** Leaders holding hands: Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Emmanuel Macron (Reuters) How many "peace conferences" and "peace plans" have there been since 2011, when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad launched his genocidal war against his historic Sunni enemies, including the Palestinians in refugee camps, targeting women and children in marketplaces, schools and hospitals using barrel bombs, missiles, chlorine gas, and Sarin gas, exterminating them as if they were termites? The first ones began in 2012 with the UN Security Council appointing a series of UN envoys to Syria. The first was former U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan who came up with a six-point peace plan that I described as "farcical" on the day it was announce. ( "22-Mar-12 World View -- U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria" ) The first of the six points says that Syria commits to work with Kofi Annan “in an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people.” That's just an example of how silly it was, as if it had been written by third graders. Al-Assad actually agreed to the plan, and then ignored it. He made a complete fool of Annan. The so-called "peace plan" actually made things worse in Syria, because it provided cover for al-Assad to continue his slaughter, while claiming to be negotiating peace. Similar things happened with all three UN envoys -- Kofi Annan, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura. They were all useful idiots, played by al-Assad as complete fools, humiliating themselves and the United Nations. As I wrote in "3-Aug-12 World View -- Kofi Annan resigns in failure as Syria envoy" , Annan was bitter and angry when he resigned, blaming his decision on what he described as Syrian government intransigence, on increasing militancy by Syrian rebels and on finger-pointing and name-calling by members of the United Nations Security Council. By the way, two weeks ago Staffan de Mistura announced that he would step down. He blamed Bashar al-Assad for blocking the peace process. Totally laughable. It was during the tenure of the envoy Lakhdar Brahimi that I learned what the term "proximity talks" means. The way this works is that the two sides don't actually talk to each other -- if they did, they'd probably end up killing each other. Instead, the two sides remain separated in different rooms, and each side only talks to Brahimi, who goes back and forth between the rooms. That's how the farcical "peace talks" worked. Then there were the completely fraudulent so-called "Astana talks," which were led by Russia and took place in Astana, Kazakhstan, or sometimes in Sochi. The Astana talks split western Syria into four "de-escalation zones" or "ceasefire zones." Russia promised there would be no fighting in any of these zones. In the case of three of them, al-Assad and Russia violated the agreement, and turned each of them into a full-scale genocide zone. There's only one de-escalation zone remaining: Idlib Guardian (London) and Reuters (17-Oct) **** **** Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib **** On Saturday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan led peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, with leaders of Russia, France and Germany. In addition to Erdogan, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's President Emmanuel Macron were president. The peace conference was considered a diplomatic victory for Erdogan, because he believes that he can get more leverage against Russia and Syria if the Europeans support him. Syria was not present, because Bashar al-Assad is never present at these peace conferences, since he always ignores them anyway. The U.S. was not present at the peace conference. According to one analyst, the Europeans are furious at Donald Trump for pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal and for the tariff policy, and didn't want the peace conference to turn into a pure Trump-bashing conference, so they didn't invite the US. The purpose was to make the ceasefire in Idlib permanent. There are over three million people in Idlib, and half of them are displaced people who fled al-Assad's violence in the other three de-escalation zones. Of the three million civilians, there are an estimated 60,000 or so anti-Assad rebels in Idlib, including both "moderate" rebels and jihadists in al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the al-Nusra Front. Bashar al-Assad has made it clear that he plans an assault on Idlib, and is willing to kill three million people to do so, since he considers them all the be "terrorists." If there is an assault on Idlib, there will be a massive humanitarian disaster, and hundreds of thousands or millions of people will pour across the border into Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Some of the Idlib refugees will undoubtedly continue on into Europe, resulting in a new European migrant crisis. That's why Merkel and Macron are at the meeting, calling for a political solution that makes the Idlib ceasefire permanent. And that's why the meeting is considered a diplomatic victory for Erdogan, since he thinks that Merkel and Macron will pressure Putin into agreeing to a permanent ceasefire. On September 17, Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi, and they reached an agreement to stabilize Idlib. A buffer zone would be set up, with the Syrian army on one side, and the rest of Idlib on the other. Turkey would guarantee that all rebel weapons would be removed from the buffer zone, and that Turkey would patrol the buffer zone and guarantee that it is weapons-free. Since then, there are been sporadic violations of the buffer zone on both sides, but Turkey claims that it has succeeded in clearing the buffer zone. So the purpose of Saturday's peace conference was to agree to make the ceasefire permanent. No such agreement was reached, of course. A secondary objective, to form a constitutional committee for Syria, was rejected by al-Assad. In fact, the meeting was a failure except for a few laughable expressions of hope and change. At the press conference after the meeting, Macron said, "We should be vigilant that the ceasefire in Syria will be long lasting." Merkel said, "A political solution is necessary besides military solutions. We will not tolerate the use of chemical weapons in Syria." Haha. We've seen this movie several times before. Al-Assad and Putin commit to some kind of ceasefire, with absolutely no intention to keep the commitment, and use the negotiations as cover to launch a new genocidal offensive. Sooner or later, something will happen that al-Assad can use as an excuse, and the assault will begin. This time it will be different, however. In Aleppo, Ghouta and Daara, there were a few hundred thousand people, and many of them were permitted to escape to Idlib. In Idlib, there are over three million people, and they have no place to escape to. As I wrote at length earlier this month, this situation has all the makings of a traditional tragedy in the classical Greek sense. There are three major protagonists, al-Assad, Putin and Erdogan, and they're headed for a massive, tragic, calamitous ending that cannot be prevented by them or anybody else. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Deutsche Welle Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Germany, Angela Merkel, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, France, Emmanuel Macron, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Kofi Annan, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura, Idlib, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, chlorine gas, Sarin gas, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 29-Oct-18 World View -- Islamic Jihad agrees to Egypt-sponsored ceasefire in Gaza aft - John J. Xenakis - 10-28-2018 *** 29-Oct-18 World View -- Islamic Jihad agrees to Egypt-sponsored ceasefire in Gaza after night of terror This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Islamic Jihad agrees to Egypt-sponsored ceasefire in Gaza after night of terror **** Smoke rises from an Israeli bombardment in Gaza on Saturday (AP) Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) said that it's agreed to a ceasefire with Israel mediated by Egypt after a Friday night of terror. During Friday night, 34 rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza, according to the Israeli military. It's believed that the rockets were launched by Islamic Jihad, a terror group in Gaza that is a separate entity from Hamas. Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile defense system is said to have intercepted 13 of the 34 rockets. No Israelis were reported injured by the rocket attacks. In response, Israeli air force missile attacks struck 80 targets across Gaza on Saturday morning, including Hamas's new headquarters for General Security Services. Gaza officials say that nine Palestinians were wounded in one of the Israeli attacks and a hospital was badly damaged. Gaza is under siege by both Israel and Egypt. Hamas, the nominally ruling government in Gaza, has disavowed the rocket activity and blames PIJ for sabotaging attempts to broker a long-term truce that would lift the siege. However, Israel holds Hamas responsible for all rocket attacks on Israel. Al Jazeera and Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia) and CNN **** **** Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) accepts the Egyptian-mediated ceasefire **** PIJ official Khaled al-Batsh said that the rocket attacks were made in revenge for Israeli attacks on Gazans: <QUOTE>"The occupation could not have been allowed to kill four peaceful demonstrators in Gaza and two in the occupied West Bank for taking part in peaceful popular marches without responding to the crimes."<END QUOTE> However, an Israeli army spokesman said that Iran and Syria were behind the rocket attacks: "Islamic Jihad fired dozens of missiles at Israel under the guidance of Iran and Syria. These incidents show the dangers threatening the State of Israel." PIJ was actually formed in the late 1970s, and was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution. PIJ and Hamas are both Sunni Muslim terror organizations, but PIJ has always had a much closer relationship with Iran than Hamas has had. Israeli security officials believe that PIJ is supplied with money and weapons from Iran, and also takes orders from Iran. These officials believe that Iran was influenced by two events in the last week to order PIJ to make the rocket attacks. One event was a surprise visit by Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Oman, meeting Oman's leader Sultan Qaboos. This meeting came shortly after a similar meeting by Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. Sultan Qaboos' objective was to initiate a new dialog between the two parties, which might have shut Iran and Hamas out. The second event was word that Hamas and Egypt have finally agreed to the terms to restore calm in Gaza, more or less under the same parameters put in place after 2014 summer war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. PIJ has its own reasons to launch the rocket attacks -- unlike Hamas, it opposes any peace negotiations with Israel. However, under pressure from Hamas and Egypt, PIJ agreed to the ceasefire, and there were no more rocket or missile attacks on Saturday or Sunday. According to a PIJ spokesman: <QUOTE>"After contacts between the Islamic Jihad leadership and the brothers in Egypt it was agreed that a comprehensive ceasefire will begin immediately. The Islamic Jihad will abide by the ceasefire if the occupation (Israel) does the same."<END QUOTE> Israel has threatened further attacks on Iranian targets Syria if the rocket attacks resume. Ynet (Israel) and Akhbrna News (Cairo) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Hamas, Egypt, Israel, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, PIJ, Islamic Jihad, Oman, Sultan Qaboos, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Khaled al-Batsh Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 30-Oct-18 World View -- Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elec - John J. Xenakis - 10-29-2018 *** 30-Oct-18 World View -- Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections **** Supporters hold a picture of Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck in Bangkok on Aug 5, 2017. (AFP) Thailand's prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has announced that a new general election will be held in 2019, possibly on February 24. Prayuth himself is prime minister because he was appointed by a military junta that overthrew the elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014 in a coup. Under domestic and international pressure, Prayuth has promised five times to schedule a general election, but has always failed to do so. It's possible that he won't keep his promise this time either. After the 2014 coup, he promised elections in early 2015, then in 2016, and then in November 2018. Now it's 2019 - maybe. The reason that Prayuth may again kill election plans is because he knows that his side will almost certainly lose. The vast majority of the population are the dark-skinned lower class indigenous people, also called "Thai-Thai" and "red shirts," comprising about 3/4 of the population, living mostly in the northern and northeastern regions of Thailand, but who come to Bangkok mostly to work in menial jobs serving the Thai-Chinese. The Thai-Chinese, also called "yellow shirts," are the light-skinned descendants of a wave of Chinese workers that poured into the country to find jobs in the 1930s. They comprise 1/4 of the population, live mostly around Bangkok, and are extremely contemptuous of the indigenous Thai-Thai, whom they consider to be inferior. Prayuth hates the Thai-Thai people, and knows that they'll win a general election, which is why he'll probably do all he can to avoid one. Straits Times and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 29-Dec-2017) and Channel News Asia **** **** The shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra **** The Pheu Thai Party (Puea Thai Party), originally called the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, is the party of the indigenous "red shirt" people, led by Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was prime minister from 2001-2006, when he was ousted by a military coup. He then engineered a series of election victories for prime ministers from hie Pheu Thai party, but in each case the army used some artifice to overthrow the elected prime minister. In one case, the elected prime minister Samak Sundaravej was thrown out of office by a court because he previously had a cooking show on tv, and that was a conflict of interest. ( "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war" .) In the most recent case, Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra won the 2011 election as the first female prime minister, with her election campaign scripted by her brother Thaksin, who at that time was living in exile in Dubai. ( "Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes" ) However, Yingluck's use of femininity during her time in office didn't seem to work with the military junta that overthrew her in a coup in 2014. She was charged with corruption and convicted in 2017, but fled the country in August just before she was scheduled to be sentenced and jailed. Many observers believe that the army purposely looked the other way when she fled the country, fearing that if she were jailed there would be popular riots by her supporters. She was sentenced in absentia to five years in jail. Thaksin and Yingluck are still extremely popular in Thailand, and they still yield a great deal of influence in the Pheu Thai party. According to one analyst, "You have to understand how powerful the Thaksin ‘brand’ is among his supporters. For his working class supporters he is still seen as a hero, who delivered to those people who voted for him what he promised, until he was unjustly overthrown by the ‘elite’." Thaksin has been traveling to London, Hong Kong and Singapore, remaining out of reach of the Thai authorities. He recently gave an interview in which he said that all the "pro-democracy parties," including his own Pheu Thai, should unite behind a single candidate. "It's time for [voters] to cast their ballots ... to dump the dictatorship of Thailand." After giving this interview, a member of the ruling military junta in Thailand, urged the Election Commission to look into whether Thaksin exercises control over the affairs of the Pheu Thai party from abroad. If a probe takes place and finds that Thaksin still retains influence, it could lead to dissolution of the party for several years. Bangkok Post and Nikkei and South China Morning Post and Al Jazeera **** **** Brief generational history of Thailand **** Part of Thailand's history was made famous by Anna Leonowens, who came from London to Siam (as it was known then) to be the governess and teacher of the many children of King Mongkut (Rama IV) in the 1860s. In 1895, she wrote memoirs that were turned into a film, "Anna and the King of Siam" in 1946, and into the 1952 Rodgers and Hammerstein Broadway musical, "The King and I." If you have a few minutes, then watch the YouTube video of "The March of the Siamese Children," from the 1956 film, "The King and I." It depicts Anna's first meeting with the children. The play depicts a troubled king trying to lead a small country surrounded by large enemies, and willing to use invasion, torture and other atrocities. King Rama had fought a generational crisis war in the early 1830s when he had invaded Laos and Cambodia, but ended up losing to a Vietnamese army. Siam's next generational crisis war occurred in what is now southern Thailand. For centuries, Siam's kings had felt that the Muslims in southern Siam were a major threat to the security of the country, mainly because resistance and rebellion against Thai government rule were so strong among the Muslim population, and in fact the southern Muslims had revolted during the 1830s crisis war. By the late 1800s this threat had been felt to be critical, and in 1902 King Rama V invaded and annexed the Malay kingdom of Patani, consisting of the four provinces of Satun, Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat. (Note: The kingdom is spelled "Patani," while the province is spelled "Pattani.") In 1909, an Anglo-Siamese Agreement established the present border between Thailand and Malaysia. During the next few decades, Siam (which became Thailand in 1939) was faced with the problem of trying to assimilate the southern Muslim population into what is essentially a Buddhist country. During the generational Awakening era that followed, the military coup of 1932 overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with constitutional monarchy. This was a representative form of government that promised a high degree of political participation of the Malay-Muslims in the South. However, as World War II (an Awakening era war for Thailand) approached, the country became more Thai-nationalistic, and the country adopted a policy of forced assimilation towards the Muslims, which had little success, as resistance and rebellion have continued since then. The 1930s also saw a large influx of migrants from China, coming to the country to work. Over the decades, they were able to displace the indigenous people in positions of power in government, and in control of businesses. This formed an ethnic fault line between the indigenous Thai-Thai majority and the elite Thai-Chinese minority. The next generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing fields" war, 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge government, backed by China, killed almost ten million people in a massive genocide. The Cambodian war spilled over into Thailand in the form of a communist rebellion that had begun in the 1960s. King Bhumibol (Rama IX) became an essential figure in the fight against the communists, although his role became more controversial in the savage anti-leftist coup of 1976, in which dozens of students were brutally killed by the security forces and royal-backed militias, and thousands forced to flee to seek sanctuary with the Communist Party. The Cambodian "killing fields" civil war took place on Thailand's doorstep, though not on Thai soil. Still, it caused a split along the Thai-Thai versus Thai-Chinese fault line that continues to the present time. Today, Thailand is in a new generational Awakening/Unraveling era, and we're seeing a repeat of what happened in the 1930s. During the generational Awakening era of the 1930s, the military coup of 1932 overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with constitutional monarchy that gave some power to the southern Muslims, only to have it taken away a few years later. During the current era, the 1997 constitution guaranteed free elections for everyone, including the indigenous Thai-Thai, and now that's being taken away by a military junta. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Yale: Thailand’s Response to the Cambodian Genocide and Cornell: History and Politics of the Muslims in Thailand (PDF) and Communist Party of Thailand Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck Shinawatra, Pheu Thai Party, Puea Thai Party, Thai Rak Thai, TRT, Prayuth Chan-ocha, Samak Sundaravej, Anna Leonowens, Siam, King Mongkut, Rama IV, Anna and the King of Siam, Rodgers and Hammerstein, The King and I, Rama V, Malaysia, Kingdom of Patani, Satun, Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat, China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Killing fields, King Bhumibol, Rama IX Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 31-Oct-18 World View -- Sri Lanka constitutional crisis represents opportunity for Ch - John J. Xenakis - 10-30-2018 *** 31-Oct-18 World View -- Sri Lanka constitutional crisis represents opportunity for China This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Sri Lanka constitutional crisis represents opportunity for China **** Sri Lankan police and special forces stand guard next to a poster of the newly appointed prime minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa (Reuters) Mahinda Rajapaksa, a close ally of China and former president of Sri Lanka until he was defeated in a 2015 election, may be making a comeback as prime minister. Last week, in a vitriolic political dispute, Sri Lanka's current president decided to fire the current prime minister, and appoint Rajapaksa to be the new prime minister. Note: - President is Maithripala Sirisena, Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) - Fired prime minister is Ranil Wickremesinghe, United National Party (UNP) - Appointed prime minister is Mahinda Rajapaksa The fired prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, has refused to leave the prime minister's residence, and hundreds of supporters gathered outside. Meanwhile, Rajapaksa has moved into the prime minister's office, and is starting to appoint a cabinet. So there are currently two prime ministers. The president, Maithripala Sirisena, claims that he has the right to fire the prime minister and appoint a new one. His opponents say that it's unconstitutional, and that only the parliament can fire a prime minister, and so the parliament should be called into session to decide who is prime minister. Sirisena responded by announcing that the Parliament will remain closed until mid-November. This will give him to time to make sure that the members of parliament are aligned behind his decision. However, the speaker of the parliament said: "We need to solve this through parliament. If we try to solve this in the streets it will lead to a major bloodbath." Wickremesinghe posted a defiant statement on Monday: <QUOTE>"As the Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, I call upon all parties to assemble in parliament to regain our country's peace, stability, and to vehemently defend the fundamental rights of our citizens. My expectation is that the Speaker [of Parliament] will exercise his constitutional rights and summon parliament within the next 2 days. We ask the Honorable Speaker to summon Parliament urgently- only through the parliamentary system can we can save our country from this unfortunate and dangerous situation. Let us forget our political differences and rally to re-establish democracy in our country."<END QUOTE> The reference to a "dangerous situation" is made because there's already been violence, including one person killed. On Saturday, a pro-Wickremesinghe minister was confronted by a crowd of supporters of the president. The minister's bodyguard opened fire on the crowd, killing one person and wounding two others. This followed the storming of two state-owned television stations by mobs of Rajapaksa supporters. Guardian (London) and NPR and Guardian **** **** Mahinda Rajapaksa's return to power will be welcomed by China **** President Sirisena and fired prime minister Wickremesinghe have had a number of disagreements, especially because Wickremesinghe is "pro-India," while Sirisena is "pro-China." In a bizarre manifestation of this difference, in mid-October Sirisena publicly accused India's intelligence services of plotting his assassination. However, he spoke to India's prime minister Narendra Modi on the phone the next day. Afterwards, Sirisena stated that the mischievous and malafide reports were utterly baseless and false, and seemed intended to create misunderstanding between the two leaders as well as damage the cordial relations between the two friendly neighbors. Rajapaksa became president of Sri Lanka in 2005, but was defeated in the presidential election by Sirisena in 2015. The two men had maintained cordial relations, so in that sense it wasn't a surprise that Sirisena decided to bring Rajapaksa back to power by appointing him prime minister after firing Wickremesinghe. However, there's a great deal of hostility and violence in Sri Lanka related to the 30-year civil war between the governing ethnic Sinhalese, who are Buddhist, and the minority ethnic Tamils, who are Muslim. This was actually the first generational crisis war to reach a climax in this century. This civil war climaxed in May 2009. As in the case of all generational crisis wars, especially when they're civil wars, the war was extremely brutal and blood, with atrocities committed on both sides. Mahinda Rajapaksa was president during the last years of that war, and he's been personally charged with war crimes. There have been sporadic surges in violence since then. Since 2014, there have been numerous hate crime attacks by Buddhists on Muslims, including arson at Muslim-owned businesses and petrol-bomb attacks on mosques. The attacks are being blamed on a radical nationalist Buddhist organization, Bodu Bala Sena (BBS - Forces of Buddhist Power). Another important legacy of Rajapaksa's presidency is that he made Sri Lanka the poster child and the first country to become victim to China's "Debt Trap Diplomacy." The Seaport of Hambantota, a Chinese infrastructure project in Sri Lanka, was funded with a loan from China, with almost all the labor performed by Chinese workers, and all parts and services imported from China, so that the loan money never benefited Sri Lanka's industries. Rajapaksa agreed to China's demands for exhorbitant loan repayment terms. Sri Lanka was unable to repay the loan, and in December of last year, Sri Lanka was forced to give the seaport away to China. So now Sri Lanka has a large seaport owned by China, and a large Chinese enclave with hundreds of Chinese families, with no benefit to itself and to its own people. What's more important is that the seaport is at a strategic location in the Indian Ocean, and is one of China's "String of Pearls" seaports, and is considered a major security threat to India. Rajapaksa's return to power means that China will play a dominant role in Sri Lanka's politics and development. India Today and Foreign Policy and Diplomat Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirisena, Sri Lanka Freedom Party, SLFP, Ranil Wickremesinghe, United National Party, UNP, Mahinda Rajapaksa, China, India, Hambantota port, Bodu Bala Sena, Forces of Buddhist Power, BBS Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 1-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan court reaffirms Mohammed's covenant with Christianity - John J. Xenakis - 10-31-2018 *** 1-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan court reaffirms Mohammed's covenant with Christianity, acquits Asia Bibi of blasphemy This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pakistan Supreme Court acquits Asia Bibi of blasphemy, triggering widespread riots **** Asia Bibi Pakistan's Supreme Court on Wednesday reversed the conviction of Asia Bibi, a Christian woman with five children who was convicted of blasphemy and sentenced to death by hanging in 2010, and has remained on death row since then. The court's scathing decision not only acquitted her, but also accused the two women who accused her of blasphemy, as well as the prosecutors who took the case to trial, of their own acts of blasphemy against Asia's religion, Christianity. Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), the political party of the loony Barelvi sect of hardline Sunni Islam has called for nationwide riots, and the assassination of the three Supreme Court judges, who are being given additional protection. Widespread protests erupted on Wednesday in cities across Pakistan, including Lahore and Karachi, shutting down roads. It was feared that the government would bow to the Barelvi/TLP demands and ignore the court's decision. That hasn't happened so far, and the new prime minister Imran Khan has endorsed the court verdict, and condemned the protesters: <QUOTE>"These protesters are not ‘protecting’ Islam; they are just trying to fill their vote banks. They are enemies of the state that are doing politics in the name of the religion. People cannot get to their jobs. A laborer, who had to get to his work place and would be unable to feed his children because of this. ... Do not force the government to take action. Do not clash with the state or hurt the country only for political gains."<END QUOTE> However, there are still concerns that the Barelvi/TLP terrorists will prevent Asia Bibi from leaving the country, now that she's free and several countries have offered her asylum. The blasphemy charge occurred when a bunch of women started arguing with each other. Several women refused to drink out of the same cup as Asia because she's a Christian. Five days later, they decided to charge her with blasphemy. She was prosecuted and has been in jail until today. Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab province in Pakistan, called for the release of Asia Bibi, and was shot 28 times in broad daylight in an open marketplace on January 4, 2011. The killer was his bodyguard, Mumtaz Qadri. The motive, as described by Qadri, was to punish Taseer for objecting to Pakistan's blasphemy laws, and for calling for the release of Asia Bibi. Qadri was not just a national hero, but he was a Barelvi hero, and it's that execution that led to the rise of TLP. Since Qadri justified his murder of Taseer with a phony blasphemy charge, the TLP political movement is based almost entirely on phony blasphemy charges. Qadri was showered with roses and treated as a hero in 2011 after brutally murdering Taseer. Qadri was finally executed last year, but not before he became a national hero for killing Taseer over a phony blasphemy charge. So Asia Bibi has been a political foil for the loony Barelvi sect for eight years. If she is successful in leaving the country, at least that part of saga may be over. BBC and Deutsche Welle and Dawn (Pakistan, 13-Oct) **** **** Pakistan Supreme Court defends Mohammed's covenant with Christianity **** The court's opinion is very long, 56 pages. Each statement or conclusion is supported by a verse from the Koran. It's in roughly three parts. The first part is the history of blasphemy laws in Pakistan. The second part describes the evidence against Asia Bibi. The third part is a scathing criticism of the women who accused Asia of blasphemy, and of the prosecutors who tried the case, repeated lying and ignoring exculpatory evidence. Furthermore, the court accuses the women and the prosecutors and even the trial courts of violating Mohammed's covenant with Christians and Christianity, and of being guilty themselves of blasphemy, for having blasphemed the religion of Asia Bibi, which was Christianity. The following are extracts from the latter parts of the opinion. According to the judgment, the Asia Bibi's prosecutors repeatedly lied, and so the prosecutors were in violation of the Koran: <QUOTE>"20. The glaring and stark contradictions in the evidence produced by the prosecution in respect of every factual aspect of this case, noticed by me above, lead to an irresistible and unfortunate impression that all those concerned in the case with providing evidence and conducting investigation had taken upon themselves not to speak the truth or at least not to divulge the whole truth. It is equally disturbing to note that the courts below had also, conveniently or otherwise, failed to advert to such contradictions and some downright falsehood. All concerned would have certainly done better if they had paid heed to what Almighty Allah has ordained in the Holy Qur’an: [i]“O you who have believed, be persistently standing firm for Allah, witnesses in justice, and do not let the hatred of a people prevent you from being just. Be just, that is nearer to righteousness. And fear Allah; indeed, Allah is acquainted with what you do.” (Surah Al-Ma’idah: verse 8) “So follow not [personal] inclination, lest you not be just. And if you distort [your testimony] or refuse [to give it], then indeed Allah is ever, with what you do, acquainted.” (Surah An-Nisa: verse 135)"<END QUOTE>[/i] The court was particularly suspicious that Asia was only accused of blasphemy five days after the alleged incident occurred, and that Asia's accusers themselves had insulted her (Christian) religion. They say that the Koran demands every Muslim believe in all the holy prophets, including Jesus Christ, and that therefore Asia's accusers were themselves blasphemers: <QUOTE>"23. The statements made by [prosecutors] before the trial court revealed that the alleged blasphemy had been committed by the Christian appellant after her Muslim co-workers had insulted the appellant’s religion and had injured her religious sensibilities only because she believed in and was a follower of Jesus Christ. According to the Holy Qur’an a Muslim’s faith is not complete till he believes in all the Holy Prophets and Messengers of Almighty Allah including Jesus Christ (Isa son of Maryam) (Peace Be Upon Him) and all the revealed Holy Books of Almighty Allah including the Holy Bible. From that perspective insulting the appellant’s religion by her Muslim co-workers was no less blasphemous. Almighty Allah, the Creator of mankind, knew how a human being whose religion and religious sensibilities are insulted is likely to snap and retort and that is why it was ordained in the Holy Qur’an that [i]“And do not insult those they invoke other than Allah, lest they insult Allah in enmity without knowledge. Thus We have made pleasing to every community their deeds. Then to their Lord is their return, and He will inform them about what they used to do.” (Surah Al-An’am: verse 108) The Muslim co-workers of the appellant had violated the command of Almighty Allah by insulting the Deity believed in and the religion followed by the appellant and, even if the prosecution’s allegations against the appellant were to be accepted as correct, the stated reaction to the same by the appellant was not different from that warned about by Almighty Allah."<END QUOTE>[/i] The court went on at length to describe how Mohammed was committed to protecting Christians and Christianity, and so Asia's accusers were actually violating one of Mohammed's covenants: <QUOTE>"24. In view of the glaring contradictions in the evidence produced by the prosecution it has appeared to me to be equally plausible that due to the quarrel taking place between the appellant and her Muslim coworkers at the spot without any offending word having been uttered by the appellant the quarrel was reported by the Muslim ladies to others who then, after deliberating over the matter for five long days, had decided to go after the appellant with a false allegation regarding commission of blasphemy. If that were so then the Muslim witnesses in this case had violated a covenant of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) with those professing the Christian faith. [One covenant is with the] Monks of Mount Sinai. It is reported that in or around the year 628 A.D. a delegation from St. Catherine’s Monastery, the world’s oldest monastery located at the foot of Mount Sinai in Egypt, came to the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him), requested for his protection and he responded by granting them a charter of rights. That charter, also known as The Promise to St. Catherine, was translated from Arabic to English language by Dr. A. Zahoor and Dr. Z. Haq as follows: [i]"This is a message from Muhammad ibn Abdullah, as a covenant to those who adopt Christianity, near and far, we are with them. Verily I, the servants, the helpers, and my followers defend them, because Christians are my citizens; and by God! I hold out against anything that displeases them. No compulsion is to be on them. Neither are their judges to be removed from their jobs nor their monks from their monasteries. No one is to destroy a house of their religion, to damage it, or to carry anything from it to the Muslims' houses. Should anyone take any of these, he would spoil God's covenant and disobey His Prophet. Verily, they are my allies and have my secure charter against all that they hate. No one is to force them to travel or to oblige them to fight. The Muslims are to fight for them. If a female Christian is married to a Muslim, it is not to take place without her approval. She is not to be prevented from visiting her church to pray. Their churches are to be respected. They are neither to be prevented from repairing them nor the sacredness of their covenants. No one of the nation (Muslims) is to disobey the covenant till the Last Day (end of the world)." The promise made was eternal and universal and was not limited to St. Catherine alone. The rights conferred by the charter are inalienable and the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) had declared that Christians, all of them, were his allies and he equated ill treatment of Christians with violating God’s covenant. It is noticeable that the charter imposed no conditions on Christians for enjoying its privileges and it was enough that they were Christians. They were not required to alter their beliefs, they did not have to make any payments and they did not have any obligations. The charter was of rights without any duties and it clearly protected the right to property, freedom of religion, freedom of work, and security of person."<END QUOTE>[/i] The court reaches its final conclusion, completely acquitting Asia Bibi: <QUOTE>"[25.] Blasphemy is a serious offence but the insult of the appellant’s religion and religious sensibilities by the complainant party and then mixing truth with falsehood in the name of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) was also not short of being blasphemous. It is ironical that in the Arabic language the appellant’s name Asia means ‘sinful’ but in the circumstances of the present case she appears to be a person, in the words of Shakespeare’s King Leare, “more sinned against than sinning”. 26. For what has been discussed above a conclusion is inescapable and irresistible that the prosecution had failed to prove its case against the appellant beyond reasonable doubt. This appeal is, therefore, allowed, the conviction and sentence of the appellant recorded and upheld by the courts below are set aside and she is acquitted of the charge by extending the benefit of doubt to her. She shall be released from the jail forthwith if not required to be detained in connection with any other case."<END QUOTE> Although not mentioned in the opinion, the implication is that TLP is also guilty of blasphemy. Pakistan Supreme Court (PDF) and Christianity Today and BBC Related Articles [*] Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blasphemy Barelvi sect (07-May-2018) [*] History of blasphemy laws in UK, Ireland and Pakistan (20-Sep-2012) [*] Pakistan's crisis worsens as senior politician is assassinated (05-Jan-2011) [*] Pakistan government totally capitulates to hardline Islamist TLYRAP Barelvi sect mob (29-Nov-2017) [*] Pakistan unexpectedly executes murderer of liberal politician Salman Taseer (01-Mar-2016) [/list] KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Asia Bibi, Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan, TLP, Barelvi sect, Salman Taseer, Mumtaz Qadri Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 2-Nov-18 World View -- EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Den - John J. Xenakis - 11-01-2018 *** 2-Nov-18 World View -- EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Trump's Iran sanctions, announced in May, scheduled for Sunday **** Iranian newspaper critical of Trump (AFP) In May, the Trump administration withdrew America's position in the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). At that time, Trump announced that he was restoring wide-ranging sanctions on Iran's economy. He Trump gave oil buyers 180 days to wind down purchases of Iranian oil, and that the final deadline for oil purchases would be Sunday, November 4. From May to September, Iran's oil exports fell by about a third. The Trump administration has the power to enforce the sanctions because of the way that the international banking systems are interlocked. Iran can sell oil to another country, but in order to get paid, payment sooner or later has to pass through an entity that can be sanctioned by the US for violating the Iran sanctions, or can be cut off from the US financial system altogether. The European Union, which has expressed fury at the Trump administration for taking these actions, has been trying to set up a "special purpose vehicle" (SPV) that European countries can use to pay Iran without having to pass through a financial entity that the US can punish. The original plan was to have the SPV in place by Monday, but implementing it has turned out to be too complex so far. Furthermore, EU officials are said to want to avoid a "direct confrontation" with the Trump administration over Iran before the midterm elections on Tuesday. The US has reportedly agreed to grant a waiver to India to permit Indian oil companies to continue importing Iranian oil for four more months, until March. The terms of the waiver are not fully clear, but India will be required to cut its imports by a third. India will make 45% of the purchase in its own rupee currency, which Iran can then use to purchase rice, drugs and other products from India. The other 55% of the payment will be made in euros, but this money will be held in escrow in India banks, until the sanctions are lifted. There are also reports that South Korea will be granted a waiver, although the details are not known. China and Japan are also seeking waivers, but have yet to receive them. China is Iran's biggest oil customer, but because of the US sanctions, China's biggest refiners have reportedly halted imports in November until the US provides clarity. CNBC and India Times and CNBC and AFP **** **** EU splits on Iran sanctions after assassination attempt in Denmark **** When Trump withdrew from from the JCPOA in May, officials in Denmark said they were shocked and surprised by Trump's decision. Former foreign minister Holger K. Nielsen said: <QUOTE>"It is catastrophic for him to do this. It could have very serious consequences for the entire region. This was a way to stay Iran's nuclear ambitions while giving more moderate forces wind in their sails. It is now a concern that hardliners [in Iran] will gain power. ... That's why I am very, very concerned. If Iran resumes nuclear arms development, I fear that Israel or the US will attack Iran, and that will make the Iraq war look like a playground fight, because this would be much worse."<END QUOTE> That was then. This is now. And now, Denmark is asking the European Union to impose additional sanctions on Iran. On September 28, agents from Denmark's intelligence service (PET) saw an individual taking photos outside the home in Copenhagen of the leader of Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz (ASMLA). ASMLA is a separatist group demanding a separate Arab state in Iran's south-western Khuzestan Province, and is classified as a terrorist group by Iran. A previous leader of ASMLA had been shot dead in the Netherlands in November 2017, so PET was concerned that a new assassination was being planned. By total coincidence, a Swedish-registered black Volvo started moving "suspiciously" outside the same house. When they tried to stop the car, it sped off. This triggered a major manhunt, during which a number of roads, bridges and ferry routes were shut down, including connections between Denmark and Sweden. It turned out that the three occupants of the Volvo had no relation to the ASMLA case, but that the Volvo was a stolen car. They were only caught because of the ASMLA case, making them "the world's most unlucky criminals," according to the Copenhagen police. The man taking the pictures was a Norwegian citizen of Iranian origin. He was arrested in Norway on October 21, and extradited to Denmark. A search of his home revealed numerous photos of the residences of members of ASMLA. Danish security officials have accused Iranian intelligence of "planning an attack on Danish soil" against Iranian Arab dissidents. Iran's Foreign Ministry denied the country had any role in the alleged assassination plot. It said in a statement: <QUOTE>"This is yet another scenario in a series of conspiracies and plots by well-known Iran adversaries in an attempt to jeopardize the good and progressive Iran-EU relations at this very important and critical juncture."<END QUOTE> Other Iranian official suggested sabotage by the US, Saudi Arabia or Israel. Some analysts claim that hardliners in Iran's intelligence services may plan plots in Europe without the knowledge or control of Iran's government. The rogue elements may even be trying to undermine pragmatists in the Iranian government and good relations with the Europe. This is actually believable. As I describe in my book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, Iran is one of the most corrupt governments in the world. Iran's constitution has no checks and balances, and the only way to get ahead in the government is through bribery, extortion and corruption. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday that Washington stood behind Denmark, a Nato ally. <QUOTE>"We congratulate the government of #Denmark on its arrest of an Iranian regime assassin. For nearly 40 years, Europe has been the target of #Iran-sponsored terrorist attacks. We call on our allies and partners to confront the full range of Iran’s threats to peace and security. — Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) October 30, 2018"<END QUOTE> This situation has thrown a huge stumbling block into the EU plans to keep the JCPOA deal alive. Iran has had a long record of pursuing opponents living abroad. Last month, a series of raids in France and across Europe caught several Iranian diplomats and sleeper cells planning terrorist operations. ( "4-Oct-18 World View -- Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe" ) There's a darkly ironic twist because Iran has strongly condemned Saudi Arabia's killing of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul Turkey, and is now accused of the same crime. Russia has used the nerve agent Novichok to murder opponents living in Britain, but to my knowledge they've issued no statement on Iran's alleged assassination attempt in Copenhagen. The Local (Denmark, 9-May) and Deutsche Welle and The Local (Denmark, 29-Sep) and Washington Post John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version. Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA, European Union, India, China, Japan, Denmark, Holger K. Nielsen, PET, Norway, Sweden, Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of al-Ahwaz, ASMLA, Mike Pompeo, Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia, Novichok Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 3-Nov-18 World View -- Australia moves migrant children from Nauru immigration camps - John J. Xenakis - 11-02-2018 *** 3-Nov-18 World View -- Australia moves migrant children from Nauru immigration camps to Australia This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Australia moves migrant children from Nauru immigration camps to Australia **** Nauru immigration camp (AAP) As a result of Federal Court orders, the Australian government is in the process of moving all migrant children and their families from Nauru immigration camps to Australian cities and towns. Fifty minors and their families have come to Australia since October 15, for a total of 135 people, and the remaining 35 minors are expected to be transferred by Christmas. Since August 3, 2013, when the government of Australia signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the government of the Republic of Nauru, refugees and asylum seekers arriving by boat without a visa would be sent either to Nauru or to Manus Island in Papua New Guinea (PNG), and would have "no chance" of being resettled in Australia as refugees. The decision to send "boat people" to the offshore islands has been extremely controversial, both domestically and internationally, as NGOs claim that the offshore islands are filthy and unsafe. Despite the objections from activists, the policy has been extremely successful in meeting its objectives. While there had previously been tens of thousands of "boat people" per year arriving in Australia, that number has been reduced to almost none, because refugees know that they will be transferred to one of the offshore detention centers. Australian officials claim that thousands of refugees' lives have been saved, since they didn't attempt the risky boat trip with human traffickers. Activists have been using the courts and political pressure to force the government to bring all refugees on the islands to be resettled in Australia. Different government officials since 2013 have all refused, saying that any such move would trigger a new flood of boat people from Indonesia. New Zealand has volunteered to take 150 refugees from Nauru and PNG and resettle them. However, Home Secretary Peter Dutton has rejected this offer because intelligence surveillance of smuggling operations had detected “increased chatter” and “talk about elections and change of government here," according to Dutton. "My judgment at the moment, based on all of the advice available to me, is New Zealand would be a pull factor at this point in time." The phrase "pull factor" refers to a possible resurgence of boat people. However, prime minister Scott Morrison said that he'd only consider the New Zealand offer if legislation were passed that would prevent the refugees from simply leaving New Zealand and coming back to Australia. Dutton says that the government remains committed to never resettle the refugees in Australia, meaning that they will be deported to their countries of origin after hospital treatment. As a separate issue, the Obama administration in 2016 agreed to accept up to 1,250 refugees from Nauru and Papua New Guinea. ( "6-Feb-17 World View -- Trump will honor Australia refugee deal, despite calling it 'worst deal ever'" ) But after more than a year of screening, only 439 have found new homes in the U.S., and dozens more have rejected the offer to resettle in the United States. According to an NGO, these were mostly people who had family in Australia and were concerned about being separated from them permanently. Sydney Morning Herald and CBS News and Guardian (London) and Australia Government (3-Aug-2013) **** **** Officials of Nauru infuriated by the contemptuous remarks by NGOs and politicians **** Australia's prime minister Scott Morrison is warning NGOs and politicians to stop being offensive to Nauru: "For those Nauruans who live there, I do know that they get frankly a bit offended about the way people talk about their home." Some NGOs have called it an "open air prison." According to Morrison, all the refugee children on Nauru are living freely in the community just like the locals, and that the island nation should not be disrespected: <QUOTE>"That is the home of Nauruans - their children live there, their families live there, they go to school there. We should be tempered in our discussion about the nation of Nauru and I think we should treat them with respect."<END QUOTE> Former prime minister Tony Abbott said, "If you like living in the tropics it's a very, very pleasant island." According to the Australian government, 65 medical professionals, including 33 mental health workers, are contracted to serve the refugees on Nauru. According to Abbott, health services are better there than in some parts of regional Australia. However, these statements are in contrast to warnings by NGOs, the United Nations, and the Australian Medical Association about the appalling state of mental health among young refugees. It was these claims that led to the court order to transfer children to Australia. The issue is becoming increasingly explosive. A month ago, the government of Nauru expelled the NGO Doctors Without Borders Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF) which had been providing free mental health care on Nauru. According to Nauru, MSF had originally committed to providing health services for the entire population of 13,000 Nauruans, but instead focused on the refugees to further political advocacy. According to a statement put out by the Nauru government: <QUOTE>"For too long, some sections of the media, refugee advocates and some NGOs, have focused only on refugees in Nauru and referred to Nauruans with disdain. Refugees and locals live side by side as part of a homogenous multicultural community. Calls for refugee children to be removed from our country ignore the fact that Nauruan children grow up here happy, healthy and educated within strong family units. Refugee and asylum seeker children attend school and activities with Nauruan children creating friendships and familial bonds. It is disturbing and concerning that advocates and organizations with political agendas prey on the vulnerable and innocent to progress their agendas. ... The statements made by MSF expose their ruse. It has become very clear that they were never here to help Nauruans as was their initial representation to Government to gain entry into Nauru. They were here as political activists and it was self-evident from the statement made by MSF representatives referring to our sovereign nation, which is our beloved home, as an “open air prison”. This was least expected from an organization proclaiming to be an international humanitarian organization. Nauru has opened its home to refugees awaiting resettlement options. MSF must not define our home as a prison. It speaks of the organization itself."<END QUOTE> Nauru is a tiny island, 21 sq km, in the middle of the Pacific. Inhabited for at least 3,000 years, originally by 12 Polynesian and Micronesian tribes, its nearest neighbor, Kiribati, is 300 km of empty ocean away. Nauru was a German colony in the 19th century and an Australian protectorate in the 20th, until independence in 1969, at which time it was one of the wealthiest countries in the world. It had a massive supply of mineral phosphate. It was strip-mined by mining companies, who packed it up and sold it overseas to be used as fertilizer. Profits were placed into a trust which, at its peak, was valued at $1 billion. But Nauru became independent in 1969, and then the politicians took over. A series of corrupt and incompetent governments wasted the money, and left the country broke and barren by the 1980s, with an unemployment rate of 70%. Since then, Australia has had to provide aid to them. The "boat people" situation has provided an extremely controversial opportunity for both countries. For Nauru it provided a way to earn extra millions of dollars by housing the refugees. For Australia, it provided a place to send them. Australia AP and NPR and Naura Government and News.com (Australia) and Guardian (London) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, PNG, Manus Island, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, New Zealand, Tony Abbott, Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 4-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan government capitulates to Barelvi/TLP terrorists, doe - John J. Xenakis - 11-03-2018 *** 4-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan government capitulates to Barelvi/TLP terrorists, doesn't free Asia Bibi This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pakistan government capitulates to Barelvi/TLP terrorists, doesn't free Asia Bibi **** Protester poster, 'Our demand - Hang Asia' (BBC) Three days after Pakistan's Supreme Court freed Asia Bibi on blasphamy charges, the government has signed a 5-point agreement with the Barelvi sect / Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) terrorists completely capitulating to the demands of the terrorists. The TLP had mobilized massive protests across the country, blocking roads in and out of big cities, and had threatened to kill the three Supreme Court judges who had written the opinion freeing Asia. Even Pakistani media and politicians were alarmed at the extent of the government capitulation, and wondered whether the government would survive. <QUOTE>"1. A review petition has been filed in the Aasia Bibi case, which is the right of the petitioners. The government will raise no objections over the review petition. 2. Due process will be followed immediately to include the name of Aasia Bibi in the Exit Control List (ECL). 3. Immediate legal action will be taken over the martyrdom of any individuals during the protest campaign against the acquittal of Aasia Bibi. 4. All those arrested on October 30 or afterwards in the protest campaign against Aasia Bibi's acquittal will be released immediately. 5. The TLP apologizes to anybody whose sentiments have been unnecessarily hurt during the incident."<END QUOTE> The reference to the "Exit Control List (ECL)" means that Asia's name will be placed on the airline list that prevents someone from leaving the country. The UK had sent a plane to take Asia to Europe, but it had to leave without her. Asia is said to be in protective custody somewhere. A number of people had been arrested during the three days of massive demonstration for destroying property and causing violence, and the agreement says that they will be freed. The only concession made by the terrorists is that they apologize for hurting people's feelings. A lot of people are now wondering whether Pakistan is ruled by Islamist terrorists. The new president Imran Khan initially said the following: <QUOTE>"I say to these people: do not confront this state ... do not damage this country for your vote bank. If you do this, I promise that the government will do its duty ... I ask you: do not force the government to have to take action."<END QUOTE> Khan did take action the next day -- total capitulation. A lot of people congratulated the Supreme Court for its bravery in acquitting Asia, but are now wondering why Asia was not acquitted by a lower court long before this. One analyst answers as follows: <QUOTE>"People ask a question as to why Sessions Court and Lahore High Court convicted her for blasphemy and endorsed death penalty. There are mainly two reasons. First, it is obvious that death threats from the extremists who use Islam for their political gains that might have forced the judges; you have see the chaos by now, for which most judges were afraid of. Secondly, the judges of lower courts were not that courageous to take the risks of their lives for justice."<END QUOTE> The following analogy might provide clarification. Imagine a high-level official in America saying that marriage should only be between a man and a woman. There would be screaming, hysterical mobs harassing him in restaurants, threatening him, and demanding his resignation. The same thing is happening in Pakistan today with respect to blasphemy. The News (Pakistan) and Deutsche Welle and The Nation (Pakistan) and Dunya News (Pakistan) **** **** Questions about Mohammed's covenant with Christians and Christianity **** It's not surprising that the TLP were absolutely furious about the Supreme Court ruling, which I described three days ago. It was a scathing opinion not only that Asia was not a blasphemer, but that her accusers and, by implication, the Barelvi/TTP terrorists were themselves blasphemers, because they had blasphemed Asia's Christian belief, which Mohammed had ordered all Muslims to protect in a covenant. Several people asked for more information about this covenant, and whether it actually exists. The text of the covenant appears in the court opinion that I quoted in my previous article, and is repeated here: <QUOTE>"This is a message from Muhammad ibn Abdullah, as a covenant to those who adopt Christianity, near and far, we are with them. Verily I, the servants, the helpers, and my followers defend them, because Christians are my citizens; and by God! I hold out against anything that displeases them. No compulsion is to be on them. Neither are their judges to be removed from their jobs nor their monks from their monasteries. No one is to destroy a house of their religion, to damage it, or to carry anything from it to the Muslims’ houses. Should anyone take any of these, he would spoil God’s covenant and disobey His Prophet. Verily, they are my allies and have my secure charter against all that they hate. No one is to force them to travel or to oblige them to fight. The Muslims are to fight for them. If a female Christian is married to a Muslim, it is not to take place without her approval. She is not to be prevented from visiting her church to pray. Their churches are to be respected. They are neither to be prevented from repairing them nor the sacredness of their covenants. No one of the nation (Muslims) is to disobey the covenant till the Last Day (end of the world)."<END QUOTE> Possibly the best way to understand this covenant is to consider the phrase, "Verily, they are my allies." The word "allies" is used in a literal sense. The document was signed in 628 AD, when Mohammed was in the middle of a generational crisis war between his own Hashim clan versus the Umayyad clan in Mecca. Mohammed had nothing against the Christians and had no reason to fight them, so he promised to protect them. Over the centuries, Muslim nations have continued to protect Christians living among them, choosing to tax them rather than kill them. So Mohammed's covenant has been followed for 1400 years. Even today, Muslim jihadists are not killing Christians except for public relations purposes in high profile terrorist attacks. The number of Christians being killed is minuscule, compared to the number of Muslims being killed. More Christians are being killed in traffic accidents than by Muslim jihadists. A lot of this was discussed in my book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East. For the most part, it's Muslims who kill Muslims (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc.), and it's Christians who kill Christians -- Nazis vs Russians, French and British, Hutus vs Tutsis, Russians vs Ukrainians and Georgians, etc. Most of the time, that's the way the world works. Islamic Supreme Council John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version. Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Asia Bibi, Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan, TLP, Barelvi sect, Hashim clan, Umayyad clan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |